Regional persistence of an endemic plant, Erigeron acer subsp. decoloratus, in disturbed riparian habitats

Regional persistence of species requires a positive balance between colonizations and local extinctions. In this study, we examined the amount of colonizations and extinctions and their likelihood as a function of patch size, isolation, and habitat characteristics of a riparian perennial plant, Erigeron acer subsp. decoloratus. We also studied the importance of patch dynamics to the regional population growth. Over five successive years, we counted the number of plant patches along 43 km of riverside. Most patches were small in area and population size. The annual finite growth rate in the number of patches varied between years, but the geometric mean was close to 1.0, indicating a viable patch network in spite of local extinctions. Extinction rate was highest on steep slopes and for small patches with few individual plants and a small patch area. When the patches were classified into different stage classes, the most common fate was stasis, i.e., the patch remained at the same stage. Patch survival and local, within-patch dynamics were most important during this five-year period. Between-patch dynamics (including colonization for example) accounted for 5–10% of annual transitions. The overall dynamics were relatively similar to those of other plant species subjected to riparian disturbance regimes. In the long run, the survival of the species depends on how well it is able to escape from competition from forest and meadow species and track the availability of suitable habitats. This kind of habitat tracking differs from classical metapopulation dynamics. In the former, local extinctions occur as a consequence of adverse changes in the habitat and recolonizations are rare, whereas metapopulation models assume a highly persistent habitat structure with frequent recolonizations. In this respect, the regional dynamics of perennial plants in disturbed riparian habitats may differ from classical metapopulations.     

Colonization–extinction dynamics of epixylic lichens along a decay gradient in a dynamic landscape

Metapopulation models are often used for understanding and predicting species dynamics in fragmented landscapes. Several models have been proposed depending on e.g. the relative importance of patch dynamics on the metapopulation dynamics. Dead wood is a dynamic substrate patch, and species that are confined to such patches have experienced a high degree of habitat loss in managed forests. Little is, however, known about how the population dynamics of epixylic species are affected by the fast dynamics of their substrate patches. We quantified the effect of local patch conditions and metapopulation processes on colonizations and extinctions of epixylic lichen species in a managed boreal forest landscape. This was done by twice surveying seven lichen metapopulations on 293 stumps in 30 stands of ages covering the duration of the dynamic patches (stumps). We also investigated the relative importance of local stochastic extinctions from stumps that remained available, and deterministic extinctions due to stump surface disappearance. We found importance of a decay gradient, surrounding metapopulation size, and local population sizes, in driving the colonization–extinction dynamics of epixylic lichens. The species were sorted along the stump decay gradient. Increasing surrounding metapopulation size was associated with increased colonization rates, and increasing local population size decreased lichen extinction rates. Finally, both local stochastic extinctions and deterministic extinctions due to patch disappearance occur, confirming that the long‐term persistence of epixylic lichens depends on colonization rates that compensate for stochastic population extinctions as well as deterministic extinctions.     

History and taxonomy: their roles in the core-satellite hypothesis

Metapopulation models are important in explaining the distribution and abundance of species through time and space. These models combine population dynamics with stochastic variation in extinction and immigration parameters associated with local populations. One of the predictions of metapopulation models is a bimodal distribution of species frequency of occurrence, a pattern that led to the development of the core-satellite species hypothesis. The spatial scale and taxonomic classification of past core-satellite studies has often been undefined. In our study, we have integrated metapopulation dynamics with the roles that differential dispersal ability and history play in the shaping of communities. The differences in distribution patterns between landbridge islands and oceanic islands, and among various taxa (birds, mammals, herptiles, arthropods, fish, and plants) are analyzed. The majority of landbridge islands comprised locally and regionally abundant species (core species), whereas the majority of oceanic islands had a uniform distribution (or no end-peak in their distribution). The patterns of distribution among the taxonomic groups also showed differences. Birds (good dispersers) consistently showed bimodal- and core-distribution patterns. The bimodal prediction of species distribution is best exemplified in the landbridge islands and in birds, and least in oceanic islands and in organisms other than birds. These results illustrate the importance of testing models with various taxonomic groups and at different spatial scales and defining these scales before formally testing the predictions of the models.     

Correlated extinctions, colonizations and population fluctuations in a highly connected ringlet butterfly metapopulation

 The persistence of metapopulations is likely to be highly dependent on whether population dynamics are correlated among habitat patches as a result of migration between patches and spatially-correlated environmental stochasticity (weather effects). We examined whether population dynamics of the ringlet butterfly, Aphantopus hyperantus, were synchronous in an area of approximately 0.5 km², with respect to extinction, colonization and population fluctuations. Monks Wood Butterfly Monitoring Scheme transect count data from 1973 to 1995, revealed (A) a major environmental perturbation, the drought of 1976, which caused synchronized extinctions of A. hyperantus in subsequent years, (B) synchronized recolonization in years following the large number of apparent extinctions, and (C) population changes by A. hyperantus were highly correlated in many of the 14 sections of the transect, presumably reflecting similar responses to environmental stochasticity, and the exchange of individuals among sections. However, extinction and population synchrony depended on habitat type. Following the 1976 drought, A. hyperantus apparently became extinct from the most open and most shady habitats it occupied, with some persistence in habitats of intermediate shading, thus showing retraction to core populations in central parts of an environmental gradient, albeit with an average shift to relatively open habitat. Populations at extreme ends of the environmental gradient occupied by A. hyperantus fluctuated least synchronously, suggesting a potential buffering effect of habitat heterogeneity, but this was not crucial to survival after the 1976 drought. Thus, not all habitats are equally important to persistence. Correlated temporal dynamics, variation in habitat quality and the interaction between habitat quality and temporal environmental stochasticity are important determinants of metapopulation persistence and should be incorporated in metapopulation models. Received: 26 April 1996 / Accepted: 17 July 1996     

Extinction, colonization, and species occupancy in tidepool fishes

Despite the increasing sophistication of ecological models with respect to the size and spatial arrangement of habitat, there is relatively little empirical documentation of how species dynamics change as a function of habitat size and the fraction of habitat occupied. In an assemblage of tidepool fishes, I used maximum-likelihood estimation to test whether models which included habitat size provided a better fit to empirical data on extinction and colonization probabilities than models that assumed constant probabilities over all habitats. I found species differences in how extinction and colonization probabilities scaled with habitat size (and hence local population size). However, there was little evidence for a relationship between extinction and colonization probabilities and the fraction of occupied tidepools, as assumed in simple metapopulation models. Instead, colonization and extinction were independent of the fraction of occupied tidepools, favoring a MacArthur-Wilson island-mainland model. When I incorporated declines in extinction probability with tidepool volume in a simple simulation model, I found that predicted occupancy could change greatly, especially when colonization was low. However, the predicted fraction of occupied patches in the simulation model changed little when I incorporated the range of values reported here for extinction and colonization and the rate at which they scale with habitat size. Quantifying extinction and colonization patterns of natural populations is fundamental to understanding how species are distributed spatially and whether metapopulation models of species occupancy provide explanatory power for field populations. Received: 14 March 1997 / Accepted: 21 September 1997     

Does lack of available suitable habitat explain the patchy distributions of rare calcicole fern species?

In Canada, as in many countries, a relatively large number of fern species occur in specialized habitats and have low numbers of known populations containing few individuals. It has been suggested that the distribution of ferns is mostly determined by factors of climate and habitat due to relatively low limitations in ferns for dispersal and establishment. Here, we attempt to explain whether the local patchy distribution of three calcicole fern species rare in Canada ( Asplenium ruta-muraria , Pellaea atropurpurea and Woodsia obtusa ) is due to a lack of available habitat. Analyses based on micro-scale differences between sites occupied by the ferns and nearby, unoccupied sites did not reveal any significant differences, thereby indicating that the rarity of these species is not entirely driven by the rarity of their microhabitat at a local scale. Our results suggest that the widely accepted premise that ferns are not limited by dispersal or establishment should be reconsidered, as such limitations are the only likely explanation for empty available and suitable habitat.     

Dispersal and connectivity in metapopulations

This paper reviews characteristics of dispersal that influence metapopulation functioning, such as releasing factors, density dependence, timing and types and health of dispersers. Economic thresholds, intraspecific conflicts and avoidance of inbreeding arc often regarded as the key ultimate or proximate (or both) causes of dispersal, but there is no consensus about the most important mechanisms. Dispersing individuals arc often considered to differ genetically from the residents but good supporting evidence has only been presented for some insect species. Sex and age differences in dispersal rates are most common in polygamous species and in long-lived species with many litters per female. A bimodal distribution of dispersal distances, earlier thought to be a common pattern, is probably an artifact, caused by habitat heterogeneity and varying survival of settled individuals. Dispersal distances are longer in poor environments. Habitat specialists are more affected by boundaries during dispersal than generalists. Dispersal just before or during the early reproductive season is common in certain species occupying early successional habitats. Dispersal increased both population and metapopulation size and persistence in plants, insects and small mammals.     

Metapopulation models for extinction threshold in spatially correlated landscapes

Simple analytical models assuming homogeneous space have been used to examine the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on metapopulation size. The models predict an extinction threshold, a critical amount of suitable habitat below which the metapopulation goes deterministically extinct. The consequences of non-random loss of habitat for species with localized dispersal have been studied mainly numerically. In this paper, we present two analytical approaches to the study of habitat loss and its metapopulation dynamic consequences incorporating spatial correlation in both metapopulation dynamics as well as in the pattern of habitat destruction. One approach is based on a measure called metapopulation capacity, given by the dominant eigenvalue of a "landscape" matrix, which encapsulates the effects of landscape structure on population extinctions and colonizations. The other approach is based on pair approximation. These models allow us to examine analytically the effects of spatial structure in habitat loss on the equilibrium metapopulation size and the threshold condition for persistence. In contrast to the pair approximation based approaches, the metapopulation capacity based approach allows us to consider species with long as well as short dispersal range and landscapes with spatial correlation at different scales. The two methods make dissimilar assumptions, but the broad conclusions concerning the consequences of spatial correlation in the landscape structure are the same. Our results show that increasing correlation in the spatial arrangement of the remaining habitat increases patch occupancy, that this increase is more evident for species with short-range than long-range dispersal, and that to be most beneficial for metapopulation size, the range of spatial correlation in landscape structure should be at least a few times greater than the dispersal range of the species.     

Colonization and extinction dynamics of an annual plant metapopulation in an urban environment

The metapopulation framework considers that the spatiotemporal distribution of organisms results from a balance between the colonization and extinction of populations in a suitable and discrete habitat network. Recent spatially realistic metapopulation models have allowed patch dynamics to be investigated in natural populations but such models have rarely been applied to plants. Using a simple urban fragmented population system in which favourable habitat can be easily mapped, we studied patch dynamics in the annual plant Crepis sancta (Asteraceae). Using stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) and multi‐year occupancy data we dissected extinction and colonization patterns in our system. Overall, our data were consistent with two distinct metapopulation scenarios. A metapopulation (sensu stricto) dynamic in which colonization occurs over a short distance and extinction is lowered by nearby occupied patches (rescue effect) was found in a set of patches close to the city centre, while a propagule rain model in which colonization occurs from a large external population was most consistent with data from other networks. Overall, the study highlights the importance of external seed sources in urban patch dynamics. Our analysis emphasizes the fact that plant distributions are governed not only by habitat properties but also by the intrinsic properties of colonization and dispersal of species. The metapopulation approach provides a valuable tool for understanding how colonization and extinction shape occupancy patterns in highly fragmented plant populations. Finally, this study points to the potential utility of more complex plant metapopulation models than traditionally used for analysing ecological and evolutionary processes in natural metapopulations.     

Metapopulation processes and persistence in remnant water vole populations

We examined the spatial distribution of water vole populations in four consecutive years and investigated whether the regional population processes of extinction, recolonisation and migration influence distribution and persistence. We examined how such regional processes are influenced by spatial variation in habitat quality. In addition, we assessed the relevance of metapopulation concepts for understanding the dynamics of species that deviate from classical metapopulation assumptions and developing conservation measures for them. Populations were patchy and discrete, and the patchy distribution was not static between years. Population turnover occurred even in the absence of predatory mink, which only influenced the network of populations at the end of the study. Most populations were clustered close together in the upper tributaries. Local population persistence was predominantly influenced by population size: large populations were more persistent. Recolonisation rates were influenced by isolation and habitat quality. The isolation estimates which best explained the distribution of water vole populations incorporated straight‐line distances, suggesting water voles disperse overland. The distribution of recolonised sites indicated that dispersing voles actively selected habitat on the basis of its quality. Water voles depart from some of the assumptions made by frequently used metapopulation models. In particular there is no clear binary distinction between suitable and non‐suitable habitat. Accounting for variation in habitat quality before investigating temporal changes in population distribution allowed us to demonstrate that the key metapopulation processes were important. The significance of regional population processes relative to local population processes may have increased in declining, fragmented populations compared to pristine regional populations. We hypothesise that although mink predation is likely to eventually cause regional extinction in many areas, metapopulation processes have delayed this decline. Consequently, conservation measures should take into account mink predation rates and regional population processes, before considering aspects of habitat quality.     

Metapopulation dynamics: Does it help to have more of the same?

With the interest in conservation biology shifting towards processes from patterns, and to populations from communities, the theory of metapopulation dynamics is replacing the equilibrium theory of island biogeography as the population ecology paradigm in conservation biology. The simplest models of metapopulation dynamics make predictions about the effects of habitat fragmentation - size and isolation of habitat patches - on metapopulation persistence. The simple models may be enriched by considerations of the effects of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the size and extinction probability of local populations. Environmental stochasticity affects populations at two levels: it makes local extinctions more probable, and it also decreases metapopulation persistence time by increasing the correlation of extinction events across populations. Some controversy has arisen over the significance of correlated extinctions, and how they may affect the optimal subdivision of metapopulations to maximize their persistence time.     

Human altered ecosystems: suitable habitats as well as ecological traps for dragonflies (Odonata): the matter of scale

Habitat loss and degradation can be considered as major threats to freshwater invertebrates. These often irreversible processes lead to reduction of habitat patch quality and cause local extinctions of dragonflies, notably of habitat specialists. However, the biodiversity of specific secondary habitats is very high. Here, we present findings from a 10-year study that intensively monitored odonate fauna in the Upper Silesian industrial coal region having many secondary habitats characterized by very frequent disturbances due to soil instability. We evaluated qualitative changes in the dragonfly assemblages on 10 patches using a modified dragonfly biotic index. Data analysis was supplemented by a model examining population dynamics of the threatened dragonfly Leucorrhinia pectoralis, using the capture-mark-recapture method, as an effective indicator of habitat quality. We show that dynamics of environmental conditions in secondary habitats are reflected in population dynamics of dragonfly populations and assemblages. As frequency of L. pectoralis population extinctions within the patch is considerable and independent of size and spatial isolation of single habitats, these can be regarded as ecological traps. Nevertheless, the metapopulation dynamics may be a key adaptation of dragonflies to frequent freshwater habitat disturbances. We suggest that local extinctions are effectively balanced with (re-)colonization of newly emerging freshwater habitats. These findings have implications for potential conservation management of specific human-made habitats, because secondary habitats with a great diversity of succession stages arising directly as a consequence of environmental instability may be considered as partial alternatives to natural habitats in cultural landscapes.     

Identification of suitable unoccupied habitats in metapopulation studies using co-occurrence of species

This study proposed a new quantitative technique to identify suitable but unoccupied habitats for metapopulation studies in plants. It is based on species composition at the habitat and knowledge of species co-occurrence patterns. It uses data from a large phytosociological database as a background for estimating species co-occurrence patterns. If such a database is not available, the technique can still be applied using the same data for which the prediction is done to estimate the species co-occurrence pattern. Using the technique we were able to indicate suitable unoccupied habitats and differentiate them from the unoccupied unsuitable ones. We also identified habitats with low probability of being suitable that were occupied. Compared to a direct approach of identification of suitable habitats, which involves introduction of a species to the habitat and studying its performance, the approach presented here is much easier to apply and can provide extensive information on habitat suitability for a range of species with much less effort and time needed.     

Do invasive species undergo metapopulation dynamics? A case study of the invasive Caspian gull,Larus cachinnans,in Poland

Aim The mechanisms of initial dispersal and habitat occupancy by invasive alien species are fundamental ecological problems. Most tests of metapopulation theory are performed on local population systems that are stable or in decline. In the current study we were interested in the usefulness of metapopulation theory to study patch occupancy, local colonization, extinction and the abundance of the invasive Caspian gull (Larus cachinnans) in its initial invasion stages. Location Waterbodies in Poland. Methods Characteristics of the habitat patches (waterbodies, 35 in total) occupied by breeding pairs of Caspian gulls and an equal sample of randomly selected unoccupied patches were compared with t‐tests. Based on presence–absence data from 1989 to 2006 we analysed factors affecting the probability of local colonization, extinction and the size of local populations using generalized linear models. Results Occupied habitat patches were significantly larger and less isolated (from other habitat patches and other local populations) and were located closer to rivers than empty patches. The proximity of local food resources (fish ponds, refuse dumps) positively affected the occurrence of breeding pairs. The probability of colonization was positively affected by patch area, and negatively by distances to fish ponds, nearest habitat patch, nearest breeding colony and to a river, and by higher forest cover around the patch boundaries. The probability of extinction was lower in patches with a higher number of breeding pairs and with a greater area of islets. The extinction probability increased with distances to other local populations, other habitat patches, fish ponds and to refuse dumps and with a higher cover of forest around the patch boundaries. The size of the local population decreased with distances to the nearest habitat patch, local population, river, fish pond and refuse dump. Local abundance was also positively affected by the area of islets in the patch. Main conclusions During the initial stages of the invasion of Caspian gulls in Poland the species underwent metapopulation‐like dynamics with frequent extinctions from colonized habitat patches. The results prove that metapopulation theory may be a useful conceptual framework for predicting which habitats are more vulnerable to invasion.     

How species traits and affinity to urban land use control large-scale species frequency

Aim Although urban areas only occupy c. 2.8% of the earth's land surface, urbanization threatens biodiversity as areas of high human population density often coincide with high biodiversity. Therefore, nature conservation should concentrate on both remote areas and densely populated regions. Protecting rare plant species in rural and urban areas can contribute to the protection of biodiversity. We therefore need to understand why species are rare. Studies on causes of rarity often concentrate on either plant traits or extrinsic threats (such as habitat fragmentation or nitrogen enrichment). However, there are only a few studies that combine traits and extrinsic threats, although such analyses might clarify causes of rarity. We assessed how the affinity of vascular plant species to urban land use (‘urbanity’) interacts with plant traits in determining species frequency. Location Germany, resolution c. 12 km × 11 km. Methods Species with a low frequency may be rare because they occur in rare habitats or because of other reasons, although their habitat is frequent. Therefore, we calculated the frequency of species corrected for habitat frequency, i.e. relative species frequency. We explained relative species frequency by the interactions of species traits and species affinity to urban land use using generalized linear models. Simultaneous autoregressive error models controlled for phylogenetic relationships of species. Results Relative species frequency depends on species affinity to urban land use, independent of the different interactions between traits and urbanity used as predictors. The higher the urbanity the higher is species frequency. Urbanity interacts with species preferences towards temperature and soil acidity. Moreover, dispersal, nitrogen preferences and origin explain relative species frequency, amongst others. Main conclusions Many rare species, especially those preferring cool or acidic habitats might already have disappeared from urban areas. Analyses that combine species traits and environmental effects can explain the causes of rarity and help to derive better conservation strategies.     

Asynchronization of local population dynamics and persistence of a metapopulation: a lesson from an endangered composite plant, Aster kantoensis

Fragmentation of a large habitat makes local populations less linked to others, and a whole population structure changes to a metapopulation. The smaller a local population is, the more strengthened extinction factors become. Then, frequent extinctions of local populations threaten persistence of the metapopulation unless recolonizations occur rapidly enough after local extinctions. Spatially structured models have been more widely used for predicting future population dynamics and for assessing the extinction risk of a metapopulation. In this article, we first review such spatially structured models that have been applied to conservation biology, focusing on effects of asynchronization among local population dynamics on persistence of the whole metapopulation. Second, we introduce our ongoing project on extinction risk assessment of an endangered composite biennial plant, Aster kantoensis, in the riverside habitat, based on a lattice model for describing its spatiotemporal population dynamics. The model predicted that the extinction risk of A. kantoensis depends on both the frequency of flood occurrence and the time to coverage of a local habitat by other competitively stronger perennials. Finally, we present a measure (Hassell and Pacala's CV ²) for quantifying the effect of asynchronization among local population dynamics on the persistence of a whole metapopulation in conservation ecology. Received: January 12, 2000 / Accepted: February 8, 2000     

Rarity in Chilean forest birds: which ecological and life‐history traits matter?

While it is a truism that species rarity is non-randomly distributed across regions, habitats, and taxa, there is little consensus on which factors are the best predictors of low abundances and restricted geographical ranges. In this study, we evaluate the effects of ecological and life-history traits, as well as phylogeny, on rarity in the abundance and distribution of land birds inhabiting forest habitats in the Mediterranean and temperate regions of Chile. We use data on abundance collected at 16 sites and data on latitudinal distribution obtained from a literature compilation. Statistical analyses were based on multiple regression and multivariate models. We used Signed Mantel test to analyse the relationship between species ecological and life-history traits and rarity, taking into account the effect of phylogenetic relatedness. We found that rarity, in terms of distribution, is associated with a low investment in reproduction, non-migratory status, and degree of habitat specialization. These ecological and life-history traits, in association with forest loss due to climatic changes and human impacts, may explain the narrow distribution of most endemic forest birds species. Rarity in abundance, on the other hand, is more difficult to explain. However, the fact that large species with an insectivorous diet showed low density in the assemblages studied suggests that abundance is mostly regulated by energy (resource) requirements and availability. Finally, our study shows that there is no phylogenetic influence in the observed patterns.     

Single-species metapopulation dynamics: concepts, models and observations

This paper outlines a conceptual and theoretical framework for single-species metapopulation dynamics based on the Levins model and its variants. The significance of the following factors to metapopulation dynamics are explored: evolutionary changes in colonization ability; habitat patch size and isolation; compensatory effects between colonization and extinction rates; the effect of immigration on local dynamics (the rescue effect); and heterogeneity among habitat patches. The rescue effect may lead to alternative stable equilibria in metapopulation dynamics. Heterogeneity among habitat patches may give rise to a bimodal equilibrium distribution of the fraction of patches occupied in an assemblage of species (the core-satellite distribution). A new model of incidence functions is described, which allows one to estimate species' colonization and extinction rates on islands colonized from mainland. Four distinct kinds of stochasticity affecting metapopulation dynamics are discussed with examples. The concluding section describes four possible scenarios of metapopulation extinction.     

Density-dependent age at first reproduction in the eastern kingbird

Theory predicts that maximal fitness is obtained by individuals who begin to breed immediately upon reaching sexual maturity. However, delayed breeding occurs regularly in some taxa, and in birds and mammals is most often associated with long lifespan and/or limited access to suitable habitats. Delayed breeding is not expected among relatively short-lived species such as migratory passerine birds, but this assumption remains untested in many species. Here we quantify age at first reproduction in an eastern kingbird Tyrannus tyrannus population breeding in an ecological island, and through both observational and experimental approaches, investigate the potential causes for the high frequency of delayed breeding that occurs in this population. Nearly half of the fledged nestlings that returned to the breeding grounds did not breed in their first potential breeding season. Some non-breeders occupied territories, for at least some period, but most remained as non-territorial 'floaters'. Parentage analysis failed to show any reproductive success for female floaters, and only limited success for male floaters, indicating that floating was not a successful reproductive tactic. On the other hand, a strong negative relationship existed between population size and the proportion of young birds that bred in their first year, and non-territorial birds of both sexes quickly filled territory vacancies created by experimental adult removals. Limited breeding habitat and territorial behavior of older birds thus appear to be the main causes of delayed breeding in kingbirds. The frequency of delayed breeding in most species is unknown but of potential significance because failure to incorporate accurate estimates of age at first reproduction in population models may lead to flawed population projections.     

Extinction risks in metapopulations of a beetle inhabiting hollow trees predicted from time series

Ancient and dead trees are declining habitats harbouring many threatened species. These habitats are naturally patchy, and inhabiting species might exhibit metapopulation dynamics at a small spatial scale. In this study, the demography and metapopulation dynamics was analysed for Osmoderma eremita , which is an endangered beetle species associated with tree hollows in Europe. Extinction risks of O. eremita populations were predicted using Monte Carlo simulations based on time series of population assessments. Predicted occurrence patterns were consistent with field observations from an area with many small stands in which the populations are believed to have been more or less isolated from each other during the last 150–200 yr. Population growth was found to be density dependent. Carrying capacity was proportional to the volume of wood mould (i.e. loose material of dead wood in the tree hollows), which varied widely between hollow trees. This generates large differences in local extinction risks between hollow trees. The predicted metapopulation extinction risk was much higher if the habitat dynamics (formation, gradual increase and deterioration of tree hollows) were taken into consideration than in predictions yielded by models in which the amount of wood mould was assumed to be constant over time. Thus, this system has features from both mainland-island metapopulations and habitat-tracking metapopulations, and is rather far from a classic metapopulation. For the long-term persistence of the species in hollow trees, the habitat dynamics seem to be more important than demographic processes. Since the formation and deterioration of suitable tree are partly stochastic processes, there is a considerable extinction risk for many O. eremita populations, because they mainly rely on only one or a few trees with large amounts of wood mould.