Resampling methods to reduce the selection bias in genetic effect estimation in genome-wide scans

Using the simulated data of Problem 2 for Genetic Analysis Workshop 14 (GAW14), we investigated the ability of three bootstrap-based resampling estimators (a shrinkage, an out-of-sample, and a weighted estimator) to reduce the selection bias for genetic effect estimation in genome-wide linkage scans. For the given marker density in the preliminary genome scans (7 cM for microsatellite and 3 cM for SNP), we found that the two sets of markers produce comparable results in terms of power to detect linkage, localization accuracy, and magnitude of test statistic at the peak location. At the locations detected in the scan, application of the three bootstrap-based estimators substantially reduced the upward selection bias in genetic effect estimation for both true and false positives. The relative effectiveness of the estimators depended on the true genetic effect size and the inherent power to detect it. The shrinkage estimator is recommended when the power to detect the disease locus is low. Otherwise, the weighted estimator is recommended.     

Power of quantitative trait locus mapping for polygenic binary traits using generalized and regression interval mapping in multi-family half-sib designs

A generalized interval mapping (GIM) method to map quantitative trait loci (QTL) for binary polygenic traits in a multi-family half-sib design is developed based on threshold theory and implemented using a Newton-Raphson algorithm. Statistical power and bias of QTL mapping for binary traits by GIM is compared with linear regression interval mapping (RIM) using simulation. Data on 20 paternal half-sib families were simulated with two genetic markers that bracketed an additive QTL. Data simulated and analysed were: (1) data on the underlying normally distributed liability (NDL) scale, (2) binary data created by truncating NDL data based on three thresholds yielding data sets with three different incidences, and (3) NDL data with polygenic and QTL effects reduced by a proportion equal to the ratio of the heritabilities on the binary versus NDL scale (reduced-NDL). Binary data were simulated with and without systematic environmental (herd) effects in an unbalanced design. GIM and RIM gave similar power to detect the QTL and similar estimates of QTL location, effects and variances. Presence of fixed effects caused differences in bias between RIM and GIM, where GIM showed smaller bias which was affected less by incidence. The original NDL data had higher power and lower bias in QTL parameter estimates than binary and reduced-NDL data. RIM for reduced-NDL and binary data gave similar power and estimates of QTL parameters, indicating that the impact of the binary nature of data on QTL analysis is equivalent to its impact on heritability.     

Locus-specific heritability estimation via the bootstrap in linkage scans for quantitative trait loci

BACKGROUND/AIMS: In genome-wide linkage analysis of quantitative trait loci (QTL), locus-specific heritability estimates are biased when the original data are used to both localize linkage and estimate effects, due to maximization of the LOD score over the genome. Positive bias is increased by adoption of stringent significance levels to control genome-wide type I error. We propose multi-locus bootstrap resampling estimators for bias reduction in the situation in which linkage peaks at more than one QTL are of interest. METHODS: Bootstrap estimates were based on repeated sample splitting in the original dataset. We conducted simulation studies in nuclear families with 0 to 5 QTLs and applied the methods in a genome-wide analysis of a blood pressure phenotype in extended pedigrees from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). RESULTS: Compared to na?ve estimates in the original simulation samples, bootstrap estimates had reduced bias and smaller mean squared error. In the FHS pedigrees, the bootstrap yielded heritability estimates as much as 70% smaller than in the original sample. CONCLUSIONS: Because effect estimates obtained in an initial study are typically inflated relative to those expected in an independent replication study, successful replication will be more likely when sample size requirements are based on bias-reduced estimates.     

QTL analysis: unreliability and bias in estimation procedures

Several statistical methods which employ multiple marker data are currently available for the analysis of quantitative trait loci (QTL) in experimental populations. Although comparable estimates of QTL location and effects have been obtained by these methods, using simulated and real data sets, their accuracy and reliability have not been extensively investigated. The present study specifically examines the merit of using F₂ and doubled haploid populations for locating QTL and estimating their effects. Factors which may affect accuracy and reliability of QTL mapping, such as the number and position of the markers available, the accuracy of the marker locations and the size of the experimental population used, are considered. These aspects are evaluated for QTL of differing heritabilities and locations along the chromosome.A population of 300 F₂ individuals and 150 doubled haploid lines gave estimates of QTL position and effect which were comparable, albeit extremely unreliable. Even for a QTL of high heritability (10%), the confidence interval was 35 cM. There was little increase in reliability to be obtained from using 300, rather than 200, F₂ individuals and 100 doubled haploid lines gave similar results to 150. QTL estimates were not significantly improved either by using the expected, rather than the observed, marker positions or by using a dense map of markers rather than a sparse map. A QTL which was asymmetrically located in the linkage group resulted in inaccurate estimates of QTL position which were seriously biassed at low heritability of the QTL. In a population of 300 F₂ individuals the bias increased from 4 cM to 20 cM, for a QTL with 10% and 2% heritability respectively.     

Estimation of heritability from varietal trials data

We present the estimation of heritabilities of an observed trait in situations where evaluation of several pure breeding lines is performed in a trial at a single location and in trials from several locations. For the single location situation, we evaluate exact confidence intervals, the probability of invalid estimates, and the percentage points of the distribution of heritability. Simulations were performed to numerically verify the results. Additionally, approximations to the bias and standard error of the estimate were obtained and are presented along with their simulated values and coefficients of skewness and kurtosis. For trials in several locations, explicit expressions for exact values of confidence limits are not available. Further, one would require knowledge of one more parameter, represented by the ratio of genotype x environment (G x E) interaction variance to error variance, in addition to the number of genotypes, replication and true heritability value. Approximations were made for bias and the standard error of estimates of heritability. The evaluation of the distribution of heritability and its moments was recognized as a problem of the linear function of an independent chi-square. The methods have been illustrated by data from experiments on grain and straw yield of 64 barley genotypes evaluated at three locations.     

Bias in estimates of quantitative-trait-locus effect in genome scans: demonstration of the phenomenon and a method-of-moments procedure for reducing bias

An attractive feature of variance-components methods (including the Haseman-Elston tests) for the detection of quantitative-trait loci (QTL) is that these methods provide estimates of the QTL effect. However, estimates that are obtained by commonly used methods can be biased for several reasons. Perhaps the largest source of bias is the selection process. Generally, QTL effects are reported only at locations where statistically significant results are obtained. This conditional reporting can lead to a marked upward bias. In this article, we demonstrate this bias and show that its magnitude can be large. We then present a simple method-of-moments (MOM)-based procedure to obtain more-accurate estimates, and we demonstrate its validity via Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, limitations of the MOM approach are noted, and we discuss some alternative procedures that may also reduce bias.     

Estimating genetic variance contributed by a quantitative trait locus: A random model approach

Detecting quantitative trait loci (QTL) and estimating QTL variances (represented by the squared QTL effects) are two main goals of QTL mapping and genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, there are issues associated with estimated QTL variances and such issues have not attracted much attention from the QTL mapping community. Estimated QTL variances are usually biased upwards due to estimation being associated with significance tests. The phenomenon is called the Beavis effect. However, estimated variances of QTL without significance tests can also be biased upwards, which cannot be explained by the Beavis effect; rather, this bias is due to the fact that QTL variances are often estimated as the squares of the estimated QTL effects. The parameters are the QTL effects and the estimated QTL variances are obtained by squaring the estimated QTL effects. This square transformation failed to incorporate the errors of estimated QTL effects into the transformation. The consequence is biases in estimated QTL variances. To correct the biases, we can either reformulate the QTL model by treating the QTL effect as random and directly estimate the QTL variance (as a variance component) or adjust the bias by taking into account the error of the estimated QTL effect. A moment method of estimation has been proposed to correct the bias. The method has been validated via Monte Carlo simulation studies. The method has been applied to QTL mapping for the 10-week-body-weight trait from an F₂ mouse population.     

Statistical methods for dissecting triploid endosperm traits using molecular markers. An autogamous model

The endosperm, a result of double fertilization in flowering plants, is a triploid tissue whose genetic composition is more complex than diploid tissue. We present a new maximum-likelihood-based statistical method for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) underlying endosperm traits in an autogamous plant. Genetic mapping of quantitative endosperm traits is qualitatively different from traits for other plant organs because the endosperm displays complicated trisomic inheritance and represents a younger generation than its mother plant. Our endosperm mapping method is based on two different experimental designs: (1) a one-stage design in which marker information is derived from the maternal genome and (2) a two-stage hierarchical design in which marker information is derived from both the maternal and offspring genomes (embryos). Under the one-stage design, the position and additive effect of a putative QTL can be well estimated, but the estimates of the dominant and epistatic effects are upward biased and imprecise. The two-stage hierarchical design, which extracts more genetic information from the material, typically improves the accuracy and precision of the dominant and epistatic effects for an endosperm trait. We discuss the effects on the estimation of QTL parameters of different sampling strategies under the two-stage hierarchical design. Our method will be broadly useful in mapping endosperm traits for many agriculturally important crop plants and also make it possible to study the genetic significance of double fertilization in the evolution of higher plants.     

Inequality constrained estimation of genetic parameters

Summary A method is presented for computing estimates of genetic parameters under linear inequality constraints such that solutions are within theoretical limits. The method produces biased estimators, yet a small scale numerical study, also presented, shows that the inequality constrained estimators have a small mean squared error of prediction than the best of unbiased estimators. The increase in efficiency of estimation is particularly useful for traits where heritability is near the boundary values of zero or one.     

Selection bias in quantitative trait loci mapping

A simulation study was performed to see whether selection affected quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping. Populations under random selection, under selection among full-sib families, and under selection within a full-sib family were simulated each with heritability of 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7. They were analyzed with the marker spacing of 10 cM and 20 cM. The accuracy for QTL detection decreased for the populations under selection within full-sib family. Estimates of QTL effects and positions differed (P < .05) from their input values. The problems could be ignored when mapping a QTL for the populations under selection among full-sib families. A large heritability helped reduction of such problems. When the animals were selected within a full-sib family, the QTL was detected for the populations with heritability of 0.5 or larger using the marker spacing of 10 cM, and with heritability of 0.7 using the marker spacing of 20 cM. This study implied that when selection was introduced, the accuracy for QTL detection decreased and the estimates of QTL effects were biased. A caution was warranted on the decision of data (including selected animals to be genotyped) for QTL mapping.     

The estimation of genetic relationships using molecular markers and their efficiency in estimating heritability in natural populations

Molecular marker data collected from natural populations allows information on genetic relationships to be established without referencing an exact pedigree. Numerous methods have been developed to exploit the marker data. These fall into two main categories: method of moment estimators and likelihood estimators. Method of moment estimators are essentially unbiased, but utilise weighting schemes that are only optimal if the analysed pair is unrelated. Thus, they differ in their efficiency at estimating parameters for different relationship categories. Likelihood estimators show smaller mean squared errors but are much more biased. Both types of estimator have been used in variance component analysis to estimate heritability. All marker-based heritability estimators require that adequate levels of the true relationship be present in the population of interest and that adequate amounts of informative marker data are available. I review the different approaches to relationship estimation, with particular attention to optimizing the use of this relationship information in subsequent variance component estimation.     

Efficient Method for Analysis of QTL Using F1 Progenies in an Outcrossing Species

In the present paper, we proposed a statistical procedure based on composite interval mapping for accurate analysis of quantitative trait loci (QTL) for individuals sampled from an outcrossing population with two-generation families consisting of the sampled individuals and F1 progenies obtained by crossing them as parental individuals. In the proposed procedure, haplotypes of markers of parental individuals were reconstructed based on the genotypes of F1 progenies and QTL analyses with composite interval mapping were conducted separately for each of parents as well as jointly for both parents. A least squares method was applied to the composite interval mapping, where some of markers were selected as cofactors to absorb the variation induced by QTL located elsewhere in the genome. The procedure was evaluated for the efficiency in detecting QTL and the precision of estimates of locations and effects of QTL using simulations. It was shown that QTL with interaction between paternal and maternal alleles was effectively detected by joint analysis of both parents, while a QTL segregating only in one parent, closely linked to a QTL segregating only in the other parent, was successfully detected by analyzing separately each of the parents with inclusion of markers of both parents. The proposed procedure can provide detailed genetic information useful for marker assisted breeding in an outcrossing species such as forest trees.     

Estimation of quantitative genetic parameters using marker-inferred relatedness in Japanese flounder: a case study of upward bias

Marker-based methods for estimating heritability have been proposed as an effective means to study quantitative traits in long-lived organisms and natural populations. However, practical examinations to evaluate the usefulness and robustness of a regression method are limited. Using several quantitative traits of Japanese flounder Paralichthys olivaceus, the present study examined the influence of relatedness estimator and population structure on the estimation of heritability and genetic correlation under a regression method with 7 microsatellite loci. Significant heritability and genetic correlation were detected for several quantitative traits in 2 laboratory populations but not in a natural population. In the laboratory populations, upward bias in heritability appeared depending on the relatedness estimators and the populations. Upward bias in heritability increased with decreasing the actual variance of relatedness, suggesting that the estimates of heritability under the regression method tend to be overestimated due to the underestimation of the actual variance of relatedness. Therefore, relationship structure and precise estimation of relatedness are critical for applying this method.     

Mapping multiple QTL of different effects: comparison of a simple sequential testing strategy and multiple QTL mapping

The aim of this study was to explore, by computer simulation, the mapping of QTLs in a realistic but complex situation of many (linked) QTLs with different effects, and to compare two QTL mapping methods. A novel method to dissect genetic variation on multiple chromosomes using molecular markers in backcross and F₂ populations derived from inbred lines was suggested, and its properties tested using simulations. The rationale for this sequential testing method was to explicitly test for alternative genetic models. The method consists of a series of four basic statistical tests to decide whether variance was due to a single QTL, two QTLs, multiple QTLs, or polygenes, starting with a test to detect genetic variance associated with a particular chromosome. The method was able to distinguish between different QTL configurations, in that the probability to `detect' the correct model was high, varying from 0.75 to 1. For example, for a backcross population of 200 and an overall heritability of 50%, in 78% of replicates a polygenic model was detected when that was the underlying true model. To test the method for multiple chromosomes, QTLs were simulated on 10 chromosomes, following a geometric series of allele effects, assuming positive alleles were in coupling in the founder lines For these simulations, the sequential testing method was compared to the established Multiple QTL Mapping (MQM) method. For a backcross population of 400 individuals, power to detect genetic variance was low with both methods when the heritability was 0.40. For example, the power to detect genetic variation on a chromosome on which 6 QTLs explained 12.6% of the genetic variance, was less than 60% for both methods. For a large heritability (0.90), the power of MQM to detect genetic variance and to dissect QTL configurations was generally better, due to the simultaneous fitting of markers on all chromosomes. It is concluded that when testing different QTL configurations on a single chromosome using the sequential testing procedure, regions of other chromosomes which explain a significant amount of variation should be fitted in the model of analysis. This study reinforces the need for large experiments in plants and other species if the aim of a genome scan is to dissect quantitative genetic variation.     

孙女设计中标记密度对QTL定位精确性的影响

采用蒙特卡罗方法分析了在孙女设计中不同的嫩体结构、性状遗传力、ＱＴＬ效应大小和ＱＴＬ在染色体上的位置中个因素不同水平组合下４种标记密度（标记间隔５ｃＭ,１０ｃＭ,２０ｃＭ、５０ｃＭ对ＱＴＬ定位精确性（以均方误ＭＳＥ为衡量指标）的影响,并从经济学角度探讨了应用于标记辅助选（ＭＡＳ）的ＱＴＬ定位的最佳标记密度。结果表明,一般说来,在各因素水平都较低时,ＭＳＥ随标记密度加大而下降的相对幅度也较 小,反之     

On the mapping of quantitative trait loci at marker and non-marker locations

Previous studies have noted that the estimated positions of a large proportion of mapped quantitative trait loci (QTLs) coincide with marker locations and have suggested that this indicates a bias in the mapping methodology. In this study we predict the expected proportion of QTLs with positions estimated to be at the location of a marker and further examine the problem using simulated data. The results show that the higher proportion of putative QTLs estimated to be at marker positions compared with non-marker positions is an expected consequence of the estimation methods. The study initially focused on a single interval with no QTLs and was extended to include multiple intervals and QTLs of large effect. Further, the study demonstrated that the larger proportion of estimated QTL positions at the location of markers was not unique to linear regression mapping. Maximum likelihood produced similar results, although the accumulation of positional estimates at outermost markers was reduced when regions outside the linkage group were also considered. The bias towards marker positions is greatest under the null hypothesis of no QTLs or when QTL effects are small. This study discusses the impact the findings could have on the calculation of thresholds and confidence intervals produced by bootstrap methods.     

Rank-based statistical methodologies for quantitative trait locus mapping

This article addresses the identification of genetic loci (QTL and elsewhere) that influence nonnormal quantitative traits with focus on experimental crosses. QTL mapping is typically based on the assumption that the traits follow normal distributions, which may not be true in practice. Model-free tests have been proposed. However, nonparametric estimation of genetic effects has not been studied. We propose an estimation procedure based on the linear rank test statistics. The properties of the new procedure are compared with those of traditional likelihood-based interval mapping and regression interval mapping via simulations and a real data example. The results indicate that the nonparametric method is a competitive alternative to the existing parametric methodologies.     

Mapping quantitative trait loci by an extension of the Haley-Knott regression method using estimating equations

The Haley-Knott (HK) regression method continues to be a popular approximation to standard interval mapping (IM) of quantitative trait loci (QTL) in experimental crosses. The HK method is favored for its dramatic reduction in computation time compared to the IM method, something that is particularly important in simultaneous searches for multiple interacting QTL. While the HK method often approximates the IM method well in estimating QTL effects and in power to detect QTL, it may perform poorly if, for example, there is strong epistasis between QTL or if QTL are linked. Also, it is well known that the estimation of the residual variance by the HK method is biased. Here, we present an extension of the HK method that uses estimating equations based on both means and variances. For normally distributed phenotypes this estimating equation (EE) method is more efficient than the HK method. Furthermore, computer simulations show that the EE method performs well for very different genetic models and data set structures, including nonnormal phenotype distributions, nonrandom missing data patterns, varying degrees of epistasis, and varying degrees of linkage between QTL. The EE method retains key qualities of the HK method such as computational speed and robustness against nonnormal phenotype distributions, while approximating the IM method better in terms of accuracy and precision of parameter estimates and power to detect QTL.     

Estimating quantitative genetic parameters in wild populations: a comparison of pedigree and genomic approaches

The estimation of quantitative genetic parameters in wild populations is generally limited by the accuracy and completeness of the available pedigree information. Using relatedness at genomewide markers can potentially remove this limitation and lead to less biased and more precise estimates. We estimated heritability, maternal genetic effects and genetic correlations for body size traits in an unmanaged long‐term study population of Soay sheep on St Kilda using three increasingly complete and accurate estimates of relatedness: (i) Pedigree 1, using observation‐derived maternal links and microsatellite‐derived paternal links; (ii) Pedigree 2, using SNP‐derived assignment of both maternity and paternity; and (iii) whole‐genome relatedness at 37 037 autosomal SNPs. In initial analyses, heritability estimates were strikingly similar for all three methods, while standard errors were systematically lower in analyses based on Pedigree 2 and genomic relatedness. Genetic correlations were generally strong, differed little between the three estimates of relatedness and the standard errors declined only very slightly with improved relatedness information. When partitioning maternal effects into separate genetic and environmental components, maternal genetic effects found in juvenile traits increased substantially across the three relatedness estimates. Heritability declined compared to parallel models where only a maternal environment effect was fitted, suggesting that maternal genetic effects are confounded with direct genetic effects and that more accurate estimates of relatedness were better able to separate maternal genetic effects from direct genetic effects. We found that the heritability captured by SNP markers asymptoted at about half the SNPs available, suggesting that denser marker panels are not necessarily required for precise and unbiased heritability estimates. Finally, we present guidelines for the use of genomic relatedness in future quantitative genetics studies in natural populations.