The influence of management practice on the spatial distribution of Lepidopteran pests in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brassica</Emphasis> crops in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: implications for sequential sampling plans

Plutella xylostella and Pieris rapae are the key components of a pest complex that attacks Brassica crops in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). We examined the spatial distributions of these insects within crops both as individual species and when combined as a standard insect that was derived from their relative feeding rates. The influence of standard co-operative management practice and an integrated pest management (IPM) strategy on the dispersion of the standard insect was tested. Iwao’s m* − m relation was then used to describe the distribution of standard insects by management categories and of Pieris rapae using all data. Pest management practices only affected the distribution of the species when they were combined into standard insects. Enumerative sampling plans were therefore designed for standard insects based on population data derived from IPM-managed fields and for Pieris rapae from population data from all experimental fields. The presented plans have the potential to make a significant contribution to managing lepidopteran pests in the DPRK. The approach will be useful in the design of sequential sampling plans for other geographical regions where these pests co-occur and can also contribute to the development of sequential sampling plans for other pest complexes for which standard insects can be derived.     

Coconut leaf bioactivity toward generalist maize insect pests

Tropical plants are often more resistant to insects than temperate plants due to evolution of robust defenses to cope with a more constant insect threat. Coconut [Cocos nucifera L. (Arecaceae)] has very few chewing‐type leaf feeding insect pests and was tested for feeding suitability against two generalist leaf feeding caterpillar species, corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), and fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (both Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Feeding on leaf tissues from the most recently expanded leaves of a coconut variety caused significant mortality and reduced growth rates (as indicated by survivor weights) of S. frugiperda and H. zea compared to when they fed on leaves from a typical host, maize [Zea mays L. (Poaceae)], or the standard artificial diet. Proteins or other polymers did not appear to be responsible for the bioactivity noted against the caterpillars. Components responsible for activity were acetone extractable and separable by thin layer chromatography. Extracts from multiple areas of the thin layer chromatography (TLC) plates caused significant reductions in growth rates of S. frugiperda. The most bioactive TLC‐separated component, identified as pheophytin a, caused oxidative browning of test diets, suggesting that cytotoxicity of reactive oxygen species is a likely mode of action against H. zea and S. frugiperda.     

Spatial heterogeneity of climate and land-cover constraints on distributions of tick-borne pathogens

Aim To compare the geographical distributions of two tick‐borne pathogens vectored by different tick species, to examine the relative importance of climate, land cover and host density in structuring these distributions, and to assess the spatial variability of these environmental constraints across the species ranges. Location South‐central and south‐eastern North America. Methods Presence/absence data for two tick‐borne pathogens, Ehrlichia chaffeensis and Anaplasma phagocytophilum, were obtained for 567 counties from a regional data base based on white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) serology. Environmental variables describing climate, land cover and deer density were calculated for these counties. Global logistic regression analysis was used to screen the environmental variables and select a parsimonious subset of predictors. Local analysis was carried out using geographically weighted regression (GWR) to explore spatial variability in the parameters of the regression models. Cluster analysis was applied to the GWR output to identify zones with distinctive species–habitat relationships. Results Global habitat models for E. chaffeensis and A. phagocytophilum included temperature, humidity, precipitation and forest cover as explanatory variables. The E. chaffeensis model also included forest fragmentation, whereas the A. phagocytophilum model included deer density. Local analyses revealed that climate was the primary correlate of pathogen presence in the eastern portion of the study area, whereas forest cover and fragmentation constrained the western range boundaries. Habitat relationships for all variables were weak in and around the Mississippi Delta. Main conclusions Efforts to model pathogen and disease ranges, and to predict shifts in response to global change should consider future scenarios of land‐cover change as well as climate change, and should address the possibility of spatial heterogeneity in species–habitat relationships. The methods presented here outline an approach for objectively delineating geographical zones with similar species–environment relationships, which can then be used to stratify landscapes for the purposes of further explanatory and predictive modelling.     

Practical importance for conservation of insect diversity in China

Insects are one of the most important groups in the natural world. They affect the life and welfare of humans in many different ways. While some insects are referred to as pests, others are beneficial to humans. For example, they may serve a function as pollinators of many cultivated plants, as natural enemies of harmful species, or as producers of valuable materials such as honey and silk. Several insect species, however, are not currently known as being harmful or beneficial. Nevertheless they are extremely important as essential components of both natural and modified ecosystems. In China, only 1% of insect species described are major pests. The majority of insects are either neutral or beneficial to humans. China, with its vast territory, diverse climate and ecosystems, is amongst the richest countries in insect diversity. However, as a result of the economic and population growth and development, Chinas insect diversity is now faced with habitat degradation, species extinction, and a decline in the natural enemies of harmful pests. These problems are due to the expansion of agriculture, urbanization, industrialization, pollution, mining, tourism, introduced species, hunting, and the illegal trade in endangered species. In order to exploit the beneficial components of insects as biological resources and to effectively control their harmful aspects, many national strategies, legal actions and capacity-building activities have been developed and implemented. These efforts work towards the goal of insect diversity conservation in China.     

A review on the genus Metarhizium as an entomopathogenic microbial biocontrol agent with emphasis on its use and utility in Mexico

Metarhizium is a genus of entomopathogenic fungi that was initially classified into three species and varieties. More recently, DNA sequencing has improved the phylogenetic resolution of Metarhizium which now includes 30 species. The insect host ranges vary within the genus and some species such as M. robertsii have broad host ranges, while others such as M. acridum show a narrow host range and are restricted to the order Orthoptera. Metarhizium spp. are ubiquitous naturally occurring soil inhabiting fungi, and some are rhizosphere colonisers and their diversity has been attributed to various selective factors (habitat type, climatic conditions, specific associations with plants and insect hosts). Metarhizium have been used for the biological control of insect pests that affect economically important agricultural crops and have been tested under laboratory and field conditions for the control of insect vectors of human disease, showing the effectiveness of the fungus against the target pest. In Mexico, Metarhizium species have been used for the control of insect pests such as the spittlebug (Hemiptera: Cercopidae), and locusts (Orthoptera) that affect crops such as corn, bean and sugarcane. Biosafety studies, such as dermal and intragastric tests in mammalian models have also been carried out to ensure safety to humans and other animals. Metarhizium shows great promise as an alternative to chemical insecticides that has relatively low impact on human health and the environment. Key features of Metarhizium for biocontrol of insects are outlined with special reference to their utility in Mexico.     

The constraints of selecting for insect resistance in plantation trees

• 1 High productivity in plantations of exotic tree species is achieved by management for fast growth in the absence of the full complex of co‐evolved insect herbivores. In the case of Eucalyptus, silvicultural selection for desirable wood traits is concomitant with a trade‐off against defence and a reduction of chemical and genetic diversity. These factors, combined with accidental introductions, rapid insect evolution and the emergence of new pests, increase the likelihood that future plantations will need insect pest management to maintain productivity.
• 2 Forestry researchers have suggested that selecting for resistant genotypes may be beneficial in insect control. There are, however, significant differences between long‐lived trees and annual crops that make this approach unlikely to be successful. This is illustrated using several examples of research into resistance to insect herbivores in trees.
• 3 Selection for resistance to insects in trees requires an assessment of trial plantations for heritable variation in insect damage and then a determination of the effect of variation in resistance on insect population parameters. Identifying rare resistant genotypes using markers is difficult because many factors interact to produce a resistant phenotype, and phytophagous insects have less intimate relationships with their host than pathogens, resulting in weak associations with genetic loci.
• 4 If resistant genotypes are identified, their widespread deployment in plantations might not provide satisfactory management of insect pests when the use of extensive monocultures is continued. In this paper, experiments are suggested that would explore the effectiveness of polycultures or chemotype mixtures with respect to ameliorating the damage of insects on plantation productivity. In addition, mitigating the effects of some insects on plantation productivity by maintaining vigour of fast‐growing eucalypts should be considered.

     

Dynamic distribution modelling of the swamp tigertail dragonfly Synthemis eustalacta (Odonata: Anisoptera: Synthemistidae) over a 20-year bushfire regime

1. Intensity and severity of bushfires in Australia have increased over the past few decades due to climate change, threatening habitat loss for numerous species. Although the impact of bushfires on vertebrates is well-documented, the corresponding effects on insect taxa are rarely examined, although they are responsible for key ecosystem functions and services. Understanding the effects of bushfire seasons on insect distributions could elucidate long-term impacts and patterns of ecosystem recovery.
2. Here, the authors investigated the effects of recent bushfires, land-cover change, and climatic variables on the distribution of a common and endemic dragonfly, the swamp tigertail (Synthemis eustalacta) (Burmeister, 1839), which inhabits forests that have recently undergone severe burning. The authors used a temporally dynamic species distribution modelling approach that incorporated 20 years of community-science data on dragonfly occurrence and predictors based on fire, land cover, and climate to make yearly predictions of suitability. The authors also compared this to an approach that combines multiple temporally static models that use annual data.
3. The authors found that for both approaches, fire-specific variables had negligible importance for the models, while the percentage of tree and non-vegetative cover were most important. The authors also found that the dynamic model outperformed the static ones, based on cross-validation omission rate. Model predictions indicated temporal variation in area and spatial arrangement of suitable habitat, but no patterns of habitat expansion, contraction, or shifting.
4. These results highlight not only the efficacy of dynamic modelling to capture spatiotemporal variables such as vegetation cover for an endemic insect species, but also provide a novel approach to mapping species distributions with sparse locality records.

     

Species richness and parasitism in a fragmented landscape: experiments and field studies with insects on<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Vicia sepium</Emphasis>

Effects of habitat fragmentation on species diversity and herbivore-parasitoid interactions were analyzed using the insect community of seed feeders and their parasitoids in the pods of the bush vetch (Vicia sepium L.). Field studies were carried out on 18 old meadows differing in area and isolation. The area of these meadows was found to be the major determinant of species diversity and population abundance of endophagous insects. Effects of isolation were further analyzed experimentally using 16 small plots with potted vetch plants isolated by 100–500 m from vetch populations on large old meadows. The results showed that colonization success greatly decreased with increasing isolation. In both cases, insect species were not equally affected. Parasitoids suffered more from habitat loss and isolation than their phytophagous hosts. Minimum area requirements, calculated from logistic regressions, were higher for parasitoids than for herbivores. In addition, percent parasitism of the herbivores significantly decreased with area loss and increasing isolation of Vicia sepium plots, supporting the trophic-level hypothesis of island biogeography. Species with high rates of absence on meadows and isolated plant plots were not only characterized by their high trophic level, but also by low abundance and high spatial population variability. Thus conservation of large and less isolated habitat remnants enhances species diversity and parasitism of potential pest insects, i.e., the stability of ecosystem functions. Received: 4 January 1999 / Accepted: 8 September 1999     

Geological habitat template overrides late Quaternary climate change as a determinant of range dynamics and phylogeography in some habitat‐specialist water beetles

Aim We investigated the roles of lithology and climate in constraining the ranges of four co‐distributed species of Iberian saline‐habitat specialist water beetles (Ochthebius glaber, Ochthebius notabilis, Enochrus falcarius and Nebrioporus baeticus) across the late Quaternary and in shaping their geographical genetic structure. The aim was to improve our understanding of the effects of past climate changes on the biota of arid Mediterranean environments and of the relative importance of history and landscape on phylogeographical patterns. Location Iberian Peninsula, Mediterranean. Methods We combined species distribution modelling (SDM) and comparative phylogeography. We used a multi‐model inference and model‐averaging approach both for assessment of range determinants (climate and lithology) and for provision of spatially explicit estimates of the species current and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) potential ranges. Potential LGM distributions were then contrasted with the phylogeographical and population expansion patterns as assessed using mitochondrial DNA sequence data. We also evaluated the relative importance of geographical distance, habitat resistance and historical isolation for genetic structure in a causal modelling framework. Results Lithology poses a strong constraint on the distribution of Iberian saline‐habitat specialist water beetles, with a variable, but generally moderate, additional influence by climate. The degree to which potential LGM distributions were reduced and fragmented decreased with increasing importance of lithology. These SDM‐based suitability predictions were mostly congruent with phylogeographical and population genetic patterns across the study species, with stronger geographical structure in the genetic diversity of the more temperature‐sensitive species (O. glaber and E. falcarius). Furthermore, while historical isolation was the only factor explaining genetic structure in the more temperature‐sensitive species, lithology‐controlled landscape configuration also played an important role for those species with more lithology‐determined ranges (O. notabilis and N. baeticus). Main conclusions Our data show that lithology is an important constraint on the distribution and range dynamics of endemic Iberian saline‐habitat water beetles, in interaction with climate and long‐term climate change, and overrides the latter in importance for some species. Hence, geological landscape structure and long‐term history may codetermine the overall range and the distribution of genetic lineages in endemic species with specialized edaphic requirements.     

Predicting the distribution of the two bark beetles Tomicus destruens and Tomicus piniperda in Europe and the Mediterranean region

• 1 Various factors such as climate and resource availability influence the geographical distributions of organisms. Species sensitive to small temperature variations are known to experience rapid distribution shifts as a result of current global warming, sometimes leading to new threats to agriculture and forests. Tomicus piniperda and Tomicus destruens (Coleoptera, Curculionidae, Scolytinae) cause economic damage to pines in Europe and around the Mediterranean Basin. However, their respective potential distributions have not yet been studied at a large scale. The present study aimed to investigate the influence of climatic and host factors on the geographical distributions of both Tomicus species in Europe and around the Mediterranean Sea, and to establish maps of suitable areas.
• 2 Using 114 published localities where the presence or absence of both species was unambiguously recorded, we gathered WorldClim meteorological records to correlate the occurrence of insects with bioclimatic variables and to build potential distribution maps.
• 3 The two studied Tomicus species presented parapatric distributions and opposite climate demands, with T. destruens occurring in locations with warmer temperatures, whereas T. piniperda occurs under a colder climate. Amongst the investigated climate variables, temperature appeared to be most correlated with both species distributions.
• 4 The potential ranges of both species were further restricted by the availability of pine hosts. It appeared that setting new pine plantations in regions where T. destruens or T. piniperda are still absent could favour a rapid expansion of their distributions. Our data will be useful when aiming to apply management strategies adapted to each species, and to forecast their potential range expansions/contractions as a result of climate warming.

     

Predicting insect pest status under climate change scenarios: combining experimental data and population dynamics modelling

Climate change could profoundly affect the status of agricultural insect pests. Several approaches have been used to predict how the temperature and precipitation changes could modify the abundances, distributions or status of insect pests. In this article it is demonstrated how the use of simple models, such as Ricker’s classic equation, including a mechanistic representation of the influence of exogenous forces may improve our predictive capacity of the dynamic behaviour of insect populations. Using data from classical experiments in population ecology, we evaluate how temperature and humidity influence the density of two stored grain insect pest, Tribolium confusum and Callosobruchus chinensis, and then, using the A2 and B2 scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the previous modelling, we develop predictions over the future pest status of T. confusum along South America austral region, and specifically for eight cities in the continental Chilean territory. Tribolium confusum and C. chinensis show qualitatively different responses to the exogenous forcing of temperature and humidity, respectively. Our simulations predict a change in the equilibrium density of T. confusum from 10 to 14% under the moderate B2 scenario and 12 to 22% under the extreme A2 scenario to the period, 2071–2100. Both results imply a severe change in the pest status of this species in the southern region. This study illustrates how the use of theoretically based models may improve our predictive capacity. This approach provides an opportunity to examine the link between invasive species and climate change and how new suitable habitat may become available for species whose niche space is limited in some degree by climatic conditions. The use of different scenarios allows us to examine the sensitivity of the predictions, and to improve the communication with the general public and decision‐makers; a key aspect in integrated pest management.     

Widespread colonisation of Tanzanian catchments by introduced Oreochromis tilapia fishes: the legacy from decades of deliberate introduction

From the 1950s onwards, programmes to promote aquaculture and improve capture fisheries in East Africa have relied heavily on the promise held by introduced species. In Tanzania these introductions have been poorly documented. Here we report the findings of surveys of inland water bodies across Tanzania between 2011 and 2017 that clarify distributions of tilapiine cichlids of the genus Oreochromis. We identified Oreochromis from 123 sampling locations, including 14 taxa restricted to their native range and three species that have established populations beyond their native range. Of these three species, the only exotic species found was blue-spotted tilapia (Oreochromis leucostictus), while Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and Singida tilapia (Oreochromis esculentus), which are both naturally found within the country of Tanzania, have been translocated beyond their native range. Using our records, we developed models of suitable habitat for the introduced species based on recent (1960–1990) and projected (2050, 2070) East African climate. These models indicated that presence of suitable habitat for these introduced species will persist and potentially expand across the region. The clarification of distributions provided here can help inform the monitoring and management of biodiversity, and inform policy related to the future role of introduced species in fisheries and aquaculture.

     

Host plant distributions and climate interact to affect the predicted geographic distribution of a Neotropical termite

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used in the scientific literature. The majority of SDMs use climate data or other abiotic variables to forecast the potential distribution of a species in geographic space. Biotic interactions can affect the predicted spatial distribution of a species in many ways across multiple spatial scales, and incorporating these predictors in an SDM is a current topic in the scientific literature. Constrictotermes cyphergaster is a widely distributed termite in the Neotropics. This termite species nests in plants and more frequently nests in some arboreal species. Thus, this species is an excellent model to evaluate the influence of biotic interactions in SDMs. We evaluate the influences of climate and the geographic distribution of host plants on the potential distribution of C. cyphergaster. Three correlative models (MaxEnt) were built to predict the geographic distribution of the termite: (1) climate data, (2) biotic data (i.e., the geographic distribution of host plants), and (3) climate and biotic data. The models that were generated indicate that the potential geographic distribution of C. cyphergaster is concentrated in the Cerrado and Caatinga regions. In addition, path analysis and multiple regression revealed the importance of the direct effects of biological interactions in the geographic distribution of the termite, while climate affected the distribution of the termite mainly through indirect effects by influencing the geographic distributions of host plants. The current study endorses the importance of including biological interactions in SDMs. We recommend using biotic predictors in SDM studies of insect species, mainly because insects have important environmental services and biotic interaction data can improve the macroecological studies of this group.     

昆虫生态地理学与入侵危险性害虫控制

昆虫的起源、地质变动、气候、生态环境以及人类活动对昆虫的分布有极其重要的影响．昆虫生态地理学是从种的生态学来阐明昆虫地理分布的规律性的科学,它是害虫检疫的重要基础,在入侵危险性害虫种的鉴定、适生性分析和控制策略特别是生物防治策略的制定等方面有广泛的应用     

Evaluating,partitioning, and mapping the spatial autocorrelation component in ecological niche modeling: a new approach based on environmentally equidistant records

Most species data display spatial autocorrelation that can affect ecological niche models (ENMs) accuracy‐statistics, affecting its ability to infer geographic distributions. Here we evaluate whether the spatial autocorrelation underlying species data affects accuracy‐statistics and map the uncertainties due to spatial autocorrelation effects on species range predictions under past and future climate models. As an example, ENMs were fitted to Qualea grandiflora (Vochysiaceae), a widely distributed plant from Brazilian Cerrado. We corrected for spatial autocorrelation in ENMs by selecting sampling sites equidistant in geographical (GEO) and environmental (ENV) spaces. Distributions were modelled using 13 ENMs evaluated by two accuracy‐statistics (TSS and AUC), which were compared with uncorrected ENMs. Null models and the similarity statistics I were used to evaluate the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Moreover, we applied a hierarchical ANOVA to partition and map the uncertainties from the time (across last glacial maximum, pre‐insustrial, and 2080 time periods) and methodological components (ENMs and autocorrelation corrections). The GEO and ENV models had the highest accuracy‐statistics values, although only the ENV model had values higher than expected by chance alone for most of the 13 ENMs. Uncertainties from time component were higher in the core region of the Brazilian Cerrado where Q. grandiflora occurs, whereas methodological components presented higher uncertainties in the extreme northern and southern regions of South America (i.e. outside of Brazilian Cerrado). Our findings show that accounting for autocorrelation in environmental space is more efficient than doing so in geographical space. Methodological uncertainties were concentrated in outside the core region of Q. grandiflora's habitat. Conversely, uncertainty due to time component in the Brazilian Cerrado reveals that ENMs were able to capture climate change effects on Q. grandiflora distributions.     

Colonization of eucalypts in New Zealand by Australian insects

Since the 1860s, Australian insects have steadily colonized eucalypts in New Zealand. The rate of colonization has increased markedly over the last two decades. This increase may be related to increasing trade between the two countries. Currently there are 26 specialist eucalypt insect species and approximately 31 polyphagous insect species that can feed on Eucalyptus in New Zealand. The specialist eucalypt insects endemic to Australia have generally caused more damage than polyphagous or native insects. Eucalypt‐specific insects are dominated by sap sucking bugs, particularly psyllids, and defoliating Coleoptera and Lepidoptera. In some cases the major insect pest species have been those that are only occasional pests in Australia, for example Gonipterus scutellatus, Ctenarytaina eucalypti, Eriococcus coriaceus and Phylacteophaga froggatti. Some important insect pests have been rare, or even not described from Australia, prior to their appearance as a pest in New Zealand, for example Paropsis charybdis and Ophelimus eucalypti. Invading eucalypt insects are more likely to establish in the Auckland region than anywhere else in New Zealand.     

Temperature explains variable spread rates of the invasive woodwasp Sirex noctilio in the Southern Hemisphere

The frequency of introductions of non-indigenous forest insects into new habitats is increasing worldwide, often with profoundly adverse consequences on natural and plantation forest ecosystems. Understanding rates and patterns of spread of invasive forest insects is important for predicting when and where these species will expand their geographical range, with the potential to improve mitigation strategies. The woodwasp Sirex noctilio is a damaging invasive forest insect that kills numerous species of Pinus. Despite encountering highly variable eco-climatic conditions, S. noctilio has arrived and established in exotic pine forest production areas throughout the Southern Hemisphere. In this study, we compiled historical records of S. noctilio invasion to compare spread rates among eight contrasting eco-climatic regions in the Southern Hemisphere and to explore how spread rate is predicted by landscape variation in climate, habitat characteristics and anthropogenic effects. Spread rates for S. noctilio varied considerably among the invaded regions, ranging from 12 to 82 km per year. Among regions, spread rates of S. noctilio increased with increasing mean annual temperature and isothermality. We hypothesize that temperature may directly or indirectly influence S. noctilio population growth and dispersal, thereby influencing spread rates.     

Cry1Ab protein levels in phytophagous insects feeding on transgenic corn: implications for secondary exposure risk assessment

Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) and bioassays were used to estimate levels of Cry1Ab protein in four species of phytophagous insects after feeding on transgenic Bt-corn plants expressing Cry1Ab protein or artificial diets containing Cry1Ab protein. The level of Cry1Ab in insects feeding on sources containing the Cry1Ab protein was uniformly low but varied with insect species as well as food source. For the corn leaf aphid, Rhopalosiphum maidis (Fitch), feeding on diet solutions containing Cry1Ab protein, the level of the protein in the aphid was 250–500 times less than the original levels in the diet, whereas no Cry1Ab was detected by ELISA in aphids feeding on transgenic Bt-Corn plants. For the lepidopteran insects, Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner), Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), and Agrotis ipsilon (Hufnagel), levels of Cry1Ab in larvae varied significantly with feeding treatment. When feeding for 24 h on artificial diets containing 20 and 100 ppm of Cry1Ab, the level of Cry1Ab in the larvae was about 57 and 142 times lower, respectively, than the original protein level in the diet for O. nubilalis, 20 and 34 times lower for H. zea, and 10 to 14 times lower for A. ipsilon. Diet incorporation bioassays with a susceptible insect (first instar O. nubilalis) showed significant Cry1Ab bioactivity present within whole body tissues of R. maidis and O. nubilalis that had fed on diet containing a minimum of 20 ppm or higher concentrations (100 or 200 ppm) of Cry1Ab, but no significant bioactivity within the tissues of these insects after feeding on transgenic Bt-corn plants. The relevance of these findings to secondary exposure risk assessment for transgenic Bt crops is discussed.     

Ecological niche modelling as a technique for assessing threats and setting conservation priorities for Asian slow lorises (Primates: Nycticebus)

Aim Data on geographical ranges are essential when defining the conservation status of a species, and in evaluating levels of human disturbance. Where locality data are deficient, presence‐only ecological niche modelling (ENM) can provide insights into a species’ potential distribution, and can aid in conservation planning. Presence‐only ENM is especially important for rare, cryptic and nocturnal species, where absence is difficult to define. Here we applied ENM to carry out an anthropogenic risk assessment and set conservation priorities for three threatened species of Asian slow loris (Primates: Nycticebus). Location Borneo, Java and Sumatra, Southeast Asia. Methods Distribution models were built using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) ENM. We input 20 environmental variables comprising temperature, precipitation and altitude, along with species locality data. We clipped predicted distributions to forest cover and altitudinal data to generate remnant distributions. These were then applied to protected area (PA) and human land‐use data, using specific criteria to define low‐, medium‐ or high‐risk areas. These data were analysed to pinpoint priority study sites, suitable reintroduction zones and protected area extensions. Results A jackknife validation method indicated highly significant models for all three species with small sample sizes (n = 10 to 23 occurrences). The distribution models represented high habitat suitability within each species’ geographical range. High‐risk areas were most prevalent for the Javan slow loris (Nycticebus javanicus) on Java, with the highest proportion of low‐risk areas for the Bornean slow loris (N. menagensis) on Borneo. Eighteen PA extensions and 23 priority survey sites were identified across the study region. Main conclusions Discriminating areas of high habitat suitability lays the foundations for planning field studies and conservation initiatives. This study highlights potential reintroduction zones that will minimize anthropogenic threats to animals that are released. These data reiterate the conclusion of previous research, showing MaxEnt is a viable technique for modelling species distributions with small sample sizes.     

The contributions of topoclimate and land cover to species distributions and abundance: fine‐resolution tests for a mountain butterfly fauna

Aim Models relating species distributions to climate or habitat are widely used to predict the effects of global change on biodiversity. Most such approaches assume that climate governs coarse‐scale species ranges, whereas habitat limits fine‐scale distributions. We tested the influence of topoclimate and land cover on butterfly distributions and abundance in a mountain range, where climate may vary as markedly at a fine scale as land cover. Location Sierra de Guadarrama (Spain, southern Europe) Methods We sampled the butterfly fauna of 180 locations (89 in 2004, 91 in 2005) in a 10,800 km² region, and derived generalized linear models (GLMs) for species occurrence and abundance based on topoclimatic (elevation and insolation) or habitat (land cover, geology and hydrology) variables sampled at 100‐m resolution using GIS. Models for each year were tested against independent data from the alternate year, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (distribution) or Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (r_s) (abundance). Results In independent model tests, 74% of occurrence models achieved AUCs of > 0.7, and 85% of abundance models were significantly related to observed abundance. Topoclimatic models outperformed models based purely on land cover in 72% of occurrence models and 66% of abundance models. Including both types of variables often explained most variation in model calibration, but did not significantly improve model cross‐validation relative to topoclimatic models. Hierarchical partitioning analysis confirmed the overriding effect of topoclimatic factors on species distributions, with the exception of several species for which the importance of land cover was confirmed. Main conclusions Topoclimatic factors may dominate fine‐resolution species distributions in mountain ranges where climate conditions vary markedly over short distances and large areas of natural habitat remain. Climate change is likely to be a key driver of species distributions in such systems and could have important effects on biodiversity. However, continued habitat protection may be vital to facilitate range shifts in response to climate change.