High genetic diversity in a small population: the case of Chilean blue whales

It is generally assumed that species with low population sizes have lower genetic diversities than larger populations and vice versa. However, this would not be the case for long‐lived species with long generation times, and which populations have declined due to anthropogenic effects, such as the blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus). This species was intensively decimated globally to near extinction during the 20th century. Along the Chilean coast, it is estimated that at least 4288 blue whales were hunted from an apparently pre‐exploitation population size (k) of a maximum of 6200 individuals (Southeastern Pacific). Thus, here, we describe the mtDNA (control region) and nDNA (microsatellites) diversities of the Chilean blue whale aggregation site in order to verify the expectation of low genetic diversity in small populations. We then compare our findings with other blue whale aggregations in the Southern Hemisphere. Interestingly, although the estimated population size is small compared with the pre‐whaling era, there is still considerable genetic diversity, even after the population crash, both in mitochondrial (N = 46) and nuclear (N = 52) markers (H_d = 0.890 and H_o = 0.692, respectively). Our results suggest that this diversity could be a consequence of the long generation times and the relatively short period of time elapsed since the end of whaling, which has been observed in other heavily‐exploited whale populations. The genetic variability of blue whales on their southern Chile feeding grounds was similar to that found in other Southern Hemisphere blue whale feeding grounds. Our phylogenetic analysis of mtDNA haplotypes does not show extensive differentiation of populations among Southern Hemisphere blue whale feeding grounds. The present study suggests that although levels of genetic diversity are frequently used as estimators of population health, these parameters depend on the biology of the species and should be taken into account in a monitoring framework study to obtain a more complete picture of the conservation status of a population.     

Genetic differentiation between humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) from Atlantic and Pacific breeding grounds of South America

Humpback whales wintering in tropical waters along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the South American continent are thought to represent distinct populations or “stocks.” Here we present the first analysis of genetic differentiation and estimates of gene flow between these breeding stocks, based on both mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences (465 bp) and 16 microsatellite loci from samples collected off Brazil (n = 277) and Colombia (n = 148), as well as feeding areas near the western Antarctic Peninsula (n = 86). We found significant differentiation between Brazilian and Colombian breeding grounds at both mtDNA (F_ST = 0.058) and microsatellite (F_ST = 0.011) markers and corroborated previous studies showing genetic similarity between humpbacks from Colombia and those from Antarctic Peninsula feeding areas. Estimates of long‐term gene flow between Brazil and Colombia were low to moderate, asymmetrical, and mostly mediated by males. Assignment procedures detected some cases of interchange and individuals of admixed ancestry between breeding grounds, indicating limited mixing of individuals between these stocks. Overall, results highlight the differentiation of humpback whale breeding populations with adjacent feeding grounds. This appears to be a remarkable example of fidelity to seasonal habitat in the absence of any contemporary barriers.     

Low levels of genetic differentiation characterize Australian humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) populations

Humpback whales undertake long‐distance seasonal migrations between low latitude winter breeding grounds and high latitude summer feeding grounds. We report the first in‐depth population genetic study of the humpback whales that migrate to separate winter breeding grounds along the northwestern and northeastern coasts of Australia, but overlap on summer feeding grounds around Antarctica. Weak but significant differentiation between eastern and western Australia was detected across ten microsatellite loci (F_ST = 0.005, P = 0.001; D_EST = 0.031, P = 0.001, n = 364) and mitochondrial control region sequences (F_ST = 0.017 and Φ_ST = 0.069, P = 0.001, n = 364). Bayesian clustering analyses using microsatellite data could not resolve any population structure unless sampling location was provided as a prior. This study supports the emerging evidence that weak genetic differentiation is characteristic among neighboring Southern Hemisphere humpback whale breeding populations. This may be a consequence of relatively high gene flow facilitated by overlapping summer feeding areas in Antarctic waters.     

Hybridization of Southern Hemisphere blue whale subspecies and a sympatric area off Antarctica: impacts of whaling or climate change?

Understanding the degree of genetic exchange between subspecies and populations is vital for the appropriate management of endangered species. Blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) have two recognized Southern Hemisphere subspecies that show differences in geographic distribution, morphology, vocalizations and genetics. During the austral summer feeding season, the Antarctic blue whale (B. m. intermedia) is found in polar waters and the pygmy blue whale (B. m. brevicauda) in temperate waters. Here, we genetically analyzed samples collected during the feeding season to report on several cases of hybridization between the two recognized blue whale Southern Hemisphere subspecies in a previously unconfirmed sympatric area off Antarctica. This means the pygmy blue whales using waters off Antarctica may migrate and then breed during the austral winter with the Antarctic subspecies. Alternatively, the subspecies may interbreed off Antarctica outside the expected austral winter breeding season. The genetically estimated recent migration rates from the pygmy to Antarctic subspecies were greater than estimates of evolutionary migration rates and previous estimates based on morphology of whaling catches. This discrepancy may be due to differences in the methods or an increase in the proportion of pygmy blue whales off Antarctica within the last four decades. Potential causes for the latter are whaling, anthropogenic climate change or a combination of these and may have led to hybridization between the subspecies. Our findings challenge the current knowledge about the breeding behaviour of the world's largest animal and provide key information that can be incorporated into management and conservation practices for this endangered species.     

Population size and migratory connectivity of humpback whales wintering in Las Perlas Archipelago,Panama

From 2003 to 2009, we surveyed Las Perlas Archipelago off the Pacific coast of Panama 53 times between the months of August and October to estimate abundance of humpback whales and to test for a migratory connection with populations from the southern hemisphere. We identified 295 individuals using photo‐identification of dorsal fins, including 58 calves, and the population estimate for a single season was 100–300 solitary adults plus 25–50 mothers with calves; the estimated population of animals across all seasons using a mark and recapture model was over 1,000. Eight of the 139 fluke identifications were matched to whales in photograph catalogues from the Antarctic Peninsula and a ninth was matched to a whale sighted in Chilean waters; four of these nine individuals have also been sighted in Colombia. We conclude that Panama (Las Perlas Archipelago in particular) is an important calving area for humpback whales in the Southern Hemisphere. These data should provide a foundation for monitoring of population change and to increase awareness in Panama about the need to manage vessel traffic and tourism related to the whales at Las Perlas.     

Migratory preferences of humpback whales between feeding and breeding grounds in the eastern South Pacific

Latitudinal preferences within the breeding range have been suggested for Breeding Stock G humpback whales that summer in different feeding areas of the eastern South Pacific. To address this hypothesis, humpback whales photo‐identified from the Antarctic Peninsula and the Fueguian Archipelago (southern Chile) were compared with whales photo‐identified from lower latitudes extending from northern Peru to Costa Rica. This comparison was performed over a time span that includes 18 austral seasons. A total of 238 whales identified from the Antarctic Peninsula and 25 whales from the Fueguian Archipelago were among those photo‐identified at the breeding grounds. Our findings showed that humpback whales from each feeding area were resighted unevenly across the breeding grounds, which suggests a degree of spatial structuring in the migratory pathway. Humpback whales that feed at the Antarctic Peninsula were more likely to migrate to the southern breeding range between northern Peru and Colombia, whereas whales that feed at the Fueguian Archipelago were more likely to be found in the northern range of the breeding ground off Panama. Further photo‐identification efforts and genetic sampling from poorly sampled or unsampled areas are recommended to confirm these reported connectivity patterns.     

Population structure and possible migratory links of common minke whales, Balaenoptera acutorostrata, in the Southern Hemisphere

Mitochondrial DNA control region sequences were analyzed to investigate population structure and possible migratory links of common minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) in two ocean basins: western South Atlantic (WSA) and western South Pacific (WSP). The results of several different phylogenetic estimations consistently grouped all haplotypes but one (n = 1) from these two ocean basins into two separate clades. South and North Atlantic haplotypes were more closely related to each other than either was to haplotypes from the WSP. The interpopulation genetic distance between WSA and WSP whales was similar to that reported between North Pacific and North Atlantic common minke whales (0.0234). The migration rate between the two ocean basins was estimated at near-zero using MDIV. The genetic evidence presented here was consistent with the hypothesis of migratory links among Brazil, Chilean Patagonia and the Antarctic Peninsula, and between low-latitude and Antarctic waters of the WSP. The results suggest multiple populations of common minke whales in the Southern Hemisphere, which may have conservation as well as taxonomic implications. Our single locus results should be corroborated by additional analyses in a larger number of samples and at more genetic markers.     

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures—historical commercial whaling and future climate change—on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate–biological coupled “Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments” (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice‐associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.     

Hierarchical structure of mitochondrial DNA gene flow among humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliae, world-wide

The genetic structure of humpback whale populations and subpopulation divisions is described by restriction fragment length analysis of the mitochondrial (mt) DNA from samples of 230 whales collected by biopsy darting in 11 seasonal habitats representing six subpopulations, or 'stocks', world-wide. The hierarchical structure of mtDNA haplotype diversity among population subdivisions is described using the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) procedure, the analysis of gene identity, and the genealogical relationship of haplotypes as constructed by parsimony analysis and distance clustering. These analyses revealed: (i) significant partitioning of world-wide genetic variation among oceanic populations, among subpopulations or 'stocks' within oceanic populations and among seasonal habitats within stocks; (ii) fixed categorical segregation of haplotypes on the south-eastern Alaska and central California feeding grounds of the North Pacific; (iii) support for the division of the North Pacific population into a central stock which feeds in Alaska and winters in Hawaii, and an eastern or 'American' stock which feeds along the coast of California and winters near Mexico; (iv) evidence of genetic heterogeneity within the Gulf of Maine feeding grounds and among the sampled feeding and breeding grounds of the western North Atlantic; and (v) support for the historical division between the Group IV (Western Australia) and Group V (eastern Australia, New Zealand and Tonga) stocks in the Southern Oceans. Overall, our results demonstrate a striking degree of genetic structure both within and between oceanic populations of humpback whales, despite the nearly unlimited migratory potential of this species. We suggest that the humpback whale is a suitable demographic and genetic model for the management of less tractable species of baleen whales and for the general study of gene flow among long-lived, mobile vertebrates in the marine ecosystem.     

Blue whale population structure along the eastern South Pacific Ocean: evidence of more than one population

Blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) were among the most intensively exploited species of whales in the world. As a consequence of this intense exploitation, blue whale sightings off the coast of Chile were uncommon by the end of the 20th century. In 2004, a feeding and nursing ground was reported in southern Chile (SCh). With the aim to investigate the genetic identity and relationship of these Chilean blue whales to those in other Southern Hemisphere areas, 60 biopsy samples were collected from blue whales in SCh between 2003 and 2009. These samples were genotyped at seven microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial control region was sequenced, allowing us to identify 52 individuals. To investigate the genetic identity of this suspected remnant population, we compared these 52 individuals to blue whales from Antarctica (ANT, n = 96), Northern Chile (NCh, n = 19) and the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP, n = 31). No significant differentiation in haplotype frequencies (mtDNA) or among genotypes (nDNA) was found between SCh, NCh and ETP, while significant differences were found between those three areas and Antarctica for both the mitochondrial and microsatellite analyses. Our results suggest at least two breeding population units or subspecies exist, which is also supported by other lines of evidence such as morphometrics and acoustics. The lack of differences detected between SCh/NCh/ETP areas supports the hypothesis that eastern South Pacific blue whales are using the ETP area as a possible breeding area. Considering the small population sizes previously reported for the SCh area, additional conservation measures and monitoring of this population should be developed and prioritized.     

Distribution and abundance of sei whales off the west coast of the Falkland Islands

Little information exists on the current status of Southern Hemisphere sei whales (Balaenoptera borealis). We assessed their distribution and abundance along the west coast of the Falkland Islands (southwest Atlantic) during February and March 2018, using line transect and nonsystematic surveys. Abundance estimates were generated for a single survey stratum using design- and model-based approaches. Sightings of sei whales and unidentified baleen whales (most, if not all, likely to be sei whales) occurred from the coast to the 100 m depth isobath that marked the offshore boundary of the stratum. The modeled distribution predicted highest whale densities in King George Bay and in the waters between Weddell Island and the Passage Islands. Sei whale abundance was estimated as 716 animals (CV = 0.22; 95% CI [448, 1,144]; density = 0.20 whales/km²) using the design-based approach, and 707 animals (CV = 0.11; 95% CI [566, 877]; density = 0.20 whales/km²) using the model-based approach. For sei whales and unidentified baleen whales combined, the equivalent estimates were 916 animals (CV = 0.19; 95% CI [606, 1,384]; density = 0.26 whales/km²) and 895 animals (CV = 0.074; 95% CI [777, 1,032]; density = 0.25 whales/km²). The data indicate that the Falkland Islands inner shelf region may support globally important seasonal feeding aggregations of sei whales, and potentially qualify as a Key Biodiversity Area.     

Horizontal niche partitioning of humpback and fin whales around the West Antarctic Peninsula: evidence from a concurrent whale and krill survey

A dedicated aerial cetacean survey was conducted concurrently to a standardised net trawl survey for krill in order to investigate distribution patterns of large whales and different krill species and to investigate relationships of these. Distance sampling data were used to produce density surface models for humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) and fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) around the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). Abundance for both species was estimated over two strata in the Bransfield Strait and Drake Passage. Distinct distribution patterns suggest horizontal niche partitioning of the two whale species around the WAP, with fin whales aggregating at the shelf edge of the South Shetland Islands in the Drake Passage and humpback whales in the Bransfield Strait. Krill biomass estimated from the concurrent krill survey was used along with CTD data from the same expedition, bathymetric parameters and satellite data on chlorophyll-a and ice concentration to model krill distribution. Comparisons of the predicted distributions of both whale species with the predicted distributions of Euphausia superba, Euphausia crystallorophias and Thysanoessa macrura suggest a complex relationship rather than a straightforward correlation between krill and whales. However, results indicate that fin whales were feeding in an area dominated by T. macrura, while humpback whales were found in areas of higher E. superba biomass. Our results provide abundance estimates for humpback whales and, for the first time, fin whales in the WAP and contribute important information on feeding ecology and habitat use of these two species in the Southern Ocean.     

A surplus no more? Variation in krill availability impacts reproductive rates of Antarctic baleen whales

The krill surplus hypothesis of unlimited prey resources available for Antarctic predators due to commercial whaling in the 20th century has remained largely untested since the 1970s. Rapid warming of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) over the past 50 years has resulted in decreased seasonal ice cover and a reduction of krill. The latter is being exacerbated by a commercial krill fishery in the region. Despite this, humpback whale populations have increased but may be at a threshold for growth based on these human-induced changes. Understanding how climate-mediated variation in prey availability influences humpback whale population dynamics is critical for focused management and conservation actions. Using an 8-year dataset (2013–2020), we show that inter-annual humpback whale pregnancy rates, as determined from skin-blubber biopsy samples (n = 616), are positively correlated with krill availability and fluctuations in ice cover in the previous year. Pregnancy rates showed significant inter-annual variability, between 29% and 86%. Our results indicate that krill availability is in fact limiting and affecting reproductive rates, in contrast to the krill surplus hypothesis. This suggests that this population of humpback whales may be at a threshold for population growth due to prey limitations. As a result, continued warming and increased fishing along the WAP, which continue to reduce krill stocks, will likely impact this humpback whale population and other krill predators in the region. Humpback whales are sentinel species of ecosystem health, and changes in pregnancy rates can provide quantifiable signals of the impact of environmental change at the population level. Our findings must be considered paramount in developing new and more restrictive conservation and management plans for the Antarctic marine ecosystem and minimizing the negative impacts of human activities in the region.     

The World's Most Isolated and Distinct Whale Population? Humpback Whales of the Arabian Sea

A clear understanding of population structure is essential for assessing conservation status and implementing management strategies. A small, non-migratory population of humpback whales in the Arabian Sea is classified as “Endangered” on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, an assessment constrained by a lack of data, including limited understanding of its relationship to other populations. We analysed 11 microsatellite markers and mitochondrial DNA sequences extracted from 67 Arabian Sea humpback whale tissue samples and compared them to equivalent datasets from the Southern Hemisphere and North Pacific. Results show that the Arabian Sea population is highly distinct; estimates of gene flow and divergence times suggest a Southern Indian Ocean origin but indicate that it has been isolated for approximately 70,000 years, remarkable for a species that is typically highly migratory. Genetic diversity values are significantly lower than those obtained for Southern Hemisphere populations and signatures of ancient and recent genetic bottlenecks were identified. Our findings suggest this is the world''s most isolated humpback whale population, which, when combined with low population abundance estimates and anthropogenic threats, raises concern for its survival. We recommend an amendment of the status of the population to “Critically Endangered” on the IUCN Red List.     

MITOCHONDRIAL DNA VARIATION AND MATERNAL GENE FLOW AMONG HUMPBACK WHALES OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

Samples of skin tissue were collected by biopsy darting from humpback whales ( Megaptera novaeangliae ) in six seasonal habitats representing three stocks and four regions: Groups IV (western Australia), V western component (eastern Australia), V eastern component (New Zealand and Tonga) and VI (the Antarctic Peninsula and Gorgona Island, Colombia, South America) of the Southern Hemisphere. A variable section of the mitochondrial DNA control region was amplified and sequenced from 84 of these individuals, distinguishing a total of 48 unique sequences ( i. e. , mtDNA nucleotypes). Phylogenetic reconstructions suggested that these nucleotypes form three clades, corresponding to those previously described in a world-wide survey of humpback whale mtDNA variation, although bootstrap support for two of the clades was relatively low (<50%). An analysis of variance adapted for molecular information showed significant differentiation of nucleotypes among the three Groups (Stocks) and heterogeneity of haplotype diversity among the four regions. A pattern of interchange within and between oceanic basins was demonstrated by the presence of shared identical nucleotypes among humpback whales in regions of the Southern and Northern Hemispheres.     

Signals from the south; humpback whales carry messages of Antarctic sea‐ice ecosystem variability

Southern hemisphere humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) rely on summer prey abundance of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) to fuel one of the longest‐known mammalian migrations on the planet. It is hypothesized that this species, already adapted to endure metabolic extremes, will be one of the first Antarctic consumers to show measurable physiological change in response to fluctuating prey availability in a changing climate; and as such, a powerful sentinel candidate for the Antarctic sea‐ice ecosystem. Here, we targeted the sentinel parameters of humpback whale adiposity and diet, using novel, as well as established, chemical and biochemical markers, and assembled a time trend spanning 8 years. We show the synchronous, inter‐annual oscillation of two measures of humpback whale adiposity with Southern Ocean environmental variables and climate indices. Furthermore, bulk stable isotope signatures provide clear indication of dietary compensation strategies, or a lower trophic level isotopic change, following years indicated as leaner years for the whales. The observed synchronicity of humpback whale adiposity and dietary markers, with climate patterns in the Southern Ocean, lends strength to the role of humpback whales as powerful Antarctic sea‐ice ecosystem sentinels. The work carries significant potential to reform current ecosystem surveillance in the Antarctic region.     

Mother Knows Best: Occurrence and Associations of Resighted Humpback Whales Suggest Maternally Derived Fidelity to a Southern Hemisphere Coastal Feeding Ground

Site fidelity is common among migratory cetaceans, including humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). In the Northern Hemisphere it has been found that fidelity to humpback whale feeding grounds is transferred maternally but this has never been shown for the species in the Southern Hemisphere. We examined this in a unique feeding area off west South Africa using resighting data of 68 individually identified humpback whales by means of photographic (tail flukes and dorsal fins) and/or molecular methods (microsatellite genotyping) over an 18 year span. We found short-term association patterns and recurrent visits typical of other feeding grounds. Males and females had different seasonality of attendance. Significant female-dominated presence corresponded to timing of an expected influx of females on their southward migration from the breeding ground: firstly non-nursing (possibly pregnant) females in mid-spring, and mothers and calves in mid-to late summer. The potential benefit of this mid-latitude feeding area for females is illustrated by a record of a cow with known age of at least 23 years that produced calves in three consecutive years, each of which survived to at least six months of age: the first record of successful post-partum ovulation for this species in the Southern Hemisphere. We recorded association of a weaned calf with its mother, and a recurring association between a non-lactating female and male over more than two years. Moreover, three animals first identified as calves returned to the same area in subsequent years, sometimes on the same day as their mothers. This, together with numerous Parent-Offspring relations detected genetically among and between resighted and non-resighted whales is strongly suggestive of maternally derived site fidelity at a small spatial scale by a small sub-population of humpback whales.     

Whales in warming water: Assessing breeding habitat diversity and adaptability in Oceania's changing climate

In the context of a changing climate, understanding the environmental drivers of marine megafauna distribution is important for conservation success. The extent of humpback whale breeding habitats and the impact of temperature variation on their availability are both unknown. We used 19 years of dedicated survey data from seven countries and territories of Oceania (1,376 survey days), to investigate humpback whale breeding habitat diversity and adaptability to climate change. At a fine scale (1 km resolution), seabed topography was identified as an important influence on humpback whale distribution. The shallowest waters close to shore or in lagoons were favored, although humpback whales also showed flexible habitat use patterns with respect to shallow offshore features such as seamounts. At a coarse scale (1° resolution), humpback whale breeding habitats in Oceania spanned a thermal range of 22.3–27.8°C in August, with interannual variation up to 2.0°C. Within this range, both fine and coarse scale analyses of humpback whale distribution suggested local responses to temperature. Notably, the most detailed dataset was available from New Caledonia (774 survey days, 1996–2017), where encounter rates showed a negative relationship to sea surface temperature, but were not related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation or the Antarctic Oscillation from previous summer, a proxy for feeding conditions that may impact breeding patterns. Many breeding sites that are currently occupied are predicted to become unsuitably warm for this species (>28°C) by the end of the 21st century. Based on modeled ecological relationships, there are suitable habitats for relocation in archipelagos and seamounts of southern Oceania. Although distribution shifts might be restrained by philopatry, the apparent plasticity of humpback whale habitat use patterns and the extent of suitable habitats support an adaptive capacity to ocean warming in Oceania breeding grounds.     

Species identification and likely catch time period of whale bones from South Georgia

Skeletal remains of baleen whales killed during the onset of 20th century commercial whaling lie scattered across the shores and abandoned whaling stations of the subantarctic island of South Georgia. Here we report on genetic species identification of whale bones collected from South Georgia using standard historical DNA protocols. We amplified and sequenced short fragments of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region from 281 available bone samples. Of these, 231 provided mtDNA sequences of sufficient quality and length (174–194 bp) for species identification: 158 bones were identified as humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae), 51 bones were identified as fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus), 18 bones were identified as blue whale (B. musculus), two bones were identified as sei whale (B. borealis), one bone was identified as a southern right whale (Eubalaena australis), and one bone was identified as a southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina). The prominence of humpback, fin, and blue whale bones in the sample collection corresponds to the catch record of the early years of whaling on the island of South Georgia (pre‐1915), prior to the depletion of these populations.     

Ecological drivers of change at South Georgia: the krill surplus,or climate variability

Macaroni penguins Eudyptes chrysolophus are thought to be one of the most important mesopredators in the Southern Ocean having a greater impact on prey availability and abundance than any other seabird species. Their population centre has long been held to be South Georgia where populations were thought to comprise many million animals. Here we report the results of a recent census of the macaroni population at South Georgia undertaken using aerial survey methods. We report dramatic declines in numbers (～1.0 million breeding pairs) compared to numbers observed in the late 1970s (～5.4 million pairs), but show that these reductions have occurred principally at sites where numbers had previously been very large. During the breeding season, the main foraging grounds of birds from these sites overlap with the foraging grounds of Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella, a major competitor for their principal prey, Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. We suggest that the redistribution of the macaroni penguin population at South Georgia reflects the recent recovery of fur seal populations and thus the ongoing consequences of human intervention at South Georgia, a process which started more than 2 centuries previously. The implied resource competition and the observed population changes may also be exacerbated by recent reductions in Antarctic krill abundance which have been linked with reductions in seasonal sea ice following recent, rapid, regional warming in the Antarctic; however, the recovery of fur seal populations, and the ongoing recovery of krill‐eating whale populations argues that tropho‐dynamic interactions may be sufficient to explain the observed changes.