末次冰盛期低海面时南海南北陆架上的植被

在探讨孢粉的传播、来源地的基础上,根据南海南北陆坡柱状剖面（１７９４０ ,１７９６４） 的孢粉资料推断末次冰盛期（包括氧同位素３ 期的上部） 低海面时,南北出露的大陆架上生长的植被。末次冰盛期时北部大陆架曾分布以蒿属（Ａｒｔｅｍｉｓｉａ Ｌ．） 为主的草原植被,气候较今日冷且干旱。南部称为“巽他古陆”,曾覆盖热带低地雨林,河口及海岸为红树林,在周围岛屿上高山雨林曾多次向山下迁移,表明当时温度可能较今日低,但湿度没有明显变化。南北大陆架末次冰期时在植被与气候演化上的巨大差异,可能与南部巽他陆架的特殊位置（ 西太平洋暖池） 有关     

The vegetation and climate at the last glaciation on the emerged continental shelf of the South China Sea

Studies on the dispersal mechanism and source areas of pollen from hemipelagic sediments recovered from the continental slopes of the South China Sea (SCS) reveal that vegetation existed on the exposed shelves at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the latter part of the Marine Isotope Stage 3. At the low sea level stand, Artemisia-dominated grassland covered the northern continental shelf and tropical lowland rainforest and mangroves grew on the southern shelf ‘Sunda Land’. Consequently, the climate in the northern SCS must have been much colder and drier during the last glacial period compared to the present. Sunda Land experienced only a marginally lower temperature but was not drier than today. The enhanced contrast between the northern and southern parts of the SCS in vegetation and climate during the LGM may be ascribed, at least partly, to the strengthening of Winter Monsoon during the last glacial period.     

末次盛冰期以来沙漠-黄土过渡带植被演替及其对气候变化的响应

末次盛冰期(LGM)以来的增温期和全新世高温期是人类古文化进步的重要时期。黄土高原北部沙漠-黄土过渡带两个自然剖面高分辨率花粉分析结果显示,该区LGM以来为草原植被景观,但优势群落和伴生植物随气候变化而有所不同,温度和降水变化对植被演替有着重要的控制作用。气候干冷时,以耐干旱的草本植物种属为主,群落成分单一,植被盖度低;增温期和高温期,出现少量暖温带乔木植物如胡桃科、栎属等,植被盖度高,群落发育良好。全新世暖期是植被发育良好、植被盖度高的适宜期。本研究为黄土高原地区未来增温下植被响应的分析提供了历史相似型。     

The influence of abrupt climate change on the ice‐age vegetation of the Central American lowlands

Aim To investigate the effects of abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic on the vegetation history of lowland Central America. We use palynological evidence from a Central American lake on the Yucatan Peninsula to evaluate the effects of rapid climate changes during the last ice age, between 65 and 8 ka. Location Lake Petén‐Itzá, lowlands of northern Guatemala. Methods Sediment core PI‐6 was sampled at c. 170‐year resolution for pollen and charcoal analysis in order to construct a temporal sequence of environmental change. Uni‐ and multivariate statistical analyses were performed on the pollen dataset to test whether there was an association between Heinrich events in the North Atlantic and vegetation changes in the Central American lowlands. Results Pollen analysis revealed that the composition of plant assemblages on the Yucatan Peninsula varied in phase with rapid changes in North Atlantic climate. Pine savannas were the main vegetation type between c. 60 and 47 ka. These savannas gave way to pine–oak (Pinus–Quercus) forests in the latter half of the last ice age. Marked episodes of replacement of the pine–oak assemblage by xeric‐tolerant taxa occurred during Heinrich events. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was characterized by mesic conditions. Main conclusions The pollen record from Lake Petén‐Itzá showed that vegetation changes associated with Heinrich events were more significant than those associated with the LGM. Each Heinrich event produced a characteristic shift towards xeric taxa. Although colder than Heinrich events, the LGM on the Yucatan Peninsula was relatively moist, and the presumed savannization of the landscape during the maximum cooling of the last glacial was not supported by our data. Our findings suggest alternative scenarios for plant diversification and genetic interchange during glacial times, and also indicate that vegetation in tropical continental settings was not as stable as previously thought.     

Bryozoans of the Weddell Sea continental shelf,slope and abyss: did marine life colonize the Antarctic shelf from deep water,outlying islands or in situ refugia following glaciations?

Aim At the height of glaciations such as the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), benthic life on polar continental shelves was bulldozed off nearly all of the Antarctic shelf by grounded ice sheets. The origins of the current shelf benthos have become a subject of considerable debate. There are several possible sources for the current Antarctic shelf fauna, the first of which is the continental slope and deep sea of the Southern Ocean. The high levels of reported eurybathy for many Antarctic species are taken as evidence supporting this. A second possible source for colonists is the southern margins of other continents. Finally, shelves could have been recolonized from refugia on the continental shelves or slopes around Antarctica. The current study investigates whether the patchily rich and abundant biota that now occurs on the Antarctic continental shelf recolonized from refugia in situ or elsewhere. Location Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Methods We examined bryozoan samples of the BENDEX, ANDEEP III and SYSTCO expeditions, as well as the literature. Using similarity matrices (Sørensen coefficient), we assessed similarities of benthos sampled from around Antarctica. By assessing numbers of species shared between differing depths and adjacent shelf areas, we evaluated the origins of cheilostome bryozoan communities. Results Bryozoans decreased from 28, 6.5 and 0.3 colonies per trawl, and 0.16, 0.046 and 0.0026 colonies per cm² of hard surface from shelf to slope to abyssal depths. We found little and no support for recolonization of the Weddell Sea shelf by bryozoans from the adjacent slope and abyss, in the scenario of LGM faunal wipe‐out. The Weddell Sea shelf bryozoan fauna was considerably more similar to those on other Antarctic shelves than to that of the adjacent (Weddell Sea) continental slope. The known bryozoan fauna of the Weddell Sea shelf is not a subset of the Weddell Sea slope or abyssal faunas. Main conclusions We consider that the composition of the current Weddell Sea bryozoan fauna is most easily explained by in situ survival. Thus we consider that at least some of the Weddell Sea fauna persisted throughout the LGM, although not necessarily at the same locations throughout, to recolonize the large area currently occupied.     

末次冰期南海巽他陆架上的植被和气候——17962孔孢粉记录

提供了南海大陆坡上17962孔深海沉积物的孢粉记录。该孔长8m,底部^14C年龄为30000aBP,跨越了深海氧同位素3期,末次初期,冰消期和全新世几个地质历史阶段。孢偻记录显示末次冰期低海面时南海南部出露的陆架上了低地雨林。同时,在邻近的岛屿上山地雨林扩张,表明气候比较在凉,但是没有变干的迹象,冰消期植被和气候都经历了快速变暖的变凉的波动。全新世时,红树林和低地雨林的扩及孢粉沉积率的明显降低均表明气候变暖,海面上升,大陆架被淹没。     

末次冰期南海巽他陆架上的植被和气候——17962孔孢粉记录

提供了南海大陆坡上17962孔深海沉积物的孢粉记录.该孔长8 m,底部14C年龄为30 000 a BP,跨越了深海氧同位素3期、末次冰期、冰消期和全新世几个地质历史阶段.孢粉记录显示末次冰期低海面时南海南部出露的陆架上覆盖了低地雨林.同时,在邻近的岛屿上山地雨林扩张,表明气候比现在凉,但是没有变干的迹象.冰消期植被和气候都经历了快速变暖和变凉的波动.全新世时,红树林和低地雨林的扩张以及孢粉沉积率的明显降低均表明气候变暖,海面上升,大陆架被淹没.     

‘What's larvae got to do with it?’ Disparate patterns of post‐glacial population structure in two benthic marine gastropods with identical dispersal potential

In marine environments, many species have apparently colonized high latitude regions following the last glacial maximum (LGM) yet lack a life-history stage, such as a free-living larva, that is clearly capable of long-distance dispersal. Two hypotheses can explain the modern high latitude distributions of these marine taxa: (1) survival in northern refugia during the LGM or (2) rapid post-glacial dispersal by nonlarval stages. To distinguish these two scenarios, I characterized the genetic structure of two closely related northeastern Pacific gastropods that lack planktonic larvae but which have distributions extending more than 1000 km north of the southern limit of glaciers at the LGM. Despite having identical larval dispersal potential, these closely related species exhibit fundamentally different patterns of genetic structure. In Nucella ostrina, haplotype diversity among northern populations (British Columbia and Alaska) is low, no pattern of isolation by distance exists and a coalescent-based model of population growth indicates that during the LGM population size was reduced to less than 35% of its current size. In the congeneric and often sympatric N. lamellosa, northern populations harbour a diversity of ancient private haplotypes, significant evidence of isolation by distance exists and regional subdivision was found between northern (Alaska) and southern (southern British Columbia, Washington and Oregon) populations. Estimates of coalescent parameters indicate only a modest reduction in population size during the LGM and that northern and southern populations of N. lamellosa split approximately 50 Kyr before the LGM. The patterns are consistent with the hypothesis that N. ostrina recently reinvaded the northeastern Pacific but N. lamellosa survived the LGM in a northern refuge. A comparison of similar studies in this region indicates that depleted levels of genetic variation at high latitudes--evidence suggestive of recent colonization from a southern refuge--is more common among intertidal species that live relatively high on the shore, where exposure times to cold stress in air are longer than for species living lower on the shore. These data suggest that for some faunas, ecological differences between taxa may be more important than larval dispersal potential in determining species' long-term biogeographical responses to climate change.     

Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb

Aim To investigate the potential distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTFs) during the Quaternary climatic fluctuations; to reassess the formerly proposed ‘Pleistocenic arc hypothesis’ (PAH); and to identify historically stable and unstable areas of SDTF distributions in the light of palaeodistribution modelling. Location SDTFs in lowland cis‐Andean eastern‐central South America. Methods We first developed georeferenced maps depicting the current distributional extent of SDTFs under two distinct definitions (narrow and broad). We then generated occurrence datasets, which were used with current and past bioclimatic variables to predict SDTF occurrence by implementing the maximum entropy machine‐learning algorithm. We obtained historical stability maps by overlapping the presence/absence projections of each of three climatic scenarios [current, 6 kyr bp during the Holocene, and 21 kyr bp during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)]. Finally, we checked the consistencies of the model prediction with qualitative comparisons of vegetation types inferred from available fossil pollen records. Results The present‐day SDTF distribution is disjunct, but we provide evidence that it was even more disjunct during the LGM. Reconstructions support a progressive southward and eastward expansion of SDTFs on a continental scale since the LGM. No significant expansion of SDTFs into the Amazon Basin was detected. Areas of presumed long‐term stability are identified and confirmed (the three nuclear regions, Caatinga, Misiones and Piedmont, plus the Chiquitano region), and these possibly acted as current and historical refugial areas. Main conclusions The LGM climate was probably too dry and cold to support large tracts of SDTF, which were restricted to climatically favourable areas relative to the present day (in contrast with the PAH, as it was originally conceived). Expansions of SDTFs are proposed to have occupied the southern portion of Caatinga nucleus more recently during the early–middle Holocene transition. We propose an alternative scenario amenable to further testing of an earlier SDTF expansion (either at the Lower Pleistocene or the Tertiary), followed by fragmentation in the LGM and secondary expansion in the Holocene. The stability maps were used to generate specific genetic predictions at both continental and regional scales (stable areas are expected to have higher genetic diversity and endemism levels than adjacent unstable areas) that can be used to direct field sampling to cover both stable (predicted refugia) and unstable (recently colonized) areas. Lastly, we discuss the possibility that SDTFs may experience future expansion under changing climate scenarios and that both stable and unstable areas should be prioritized by conservation initiatives.     

Northern glacial refugia for the pygmy shrew Sorex minutus in Europe revealed by phylogeographic analyses and species distribution modelling

The southern European peninsulas (Iberian, Italian and Balkan) are traditionally recognized as glacial refugia from where many species colonized central and northern Europe after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). However, evidence that some species had more northerly refugia is accumulating from phylogeographic, palaeontological and palynological studies, and more recently from species distribution modelling (SDM), but further studies are needed to test the idea of northern refugia in Europe. Here, we take a rarely implemented multidisciplinary approach to assess if the pygmy shrew Sorex minutus, a widespread Eurasian mammal species, had northern refugia during the LGM, and if these influenced its postglacial geographic distribution. First, we evaluated the phylogeographic and population expansion patterns using mtDNA sequence data from 123 pygmy shrews. Then, we used SDM to predict present and past (LGM) potential distributions using two different training data sets, two different algorithms (Maxent and GARP) and climate reconstructions for the LGM with two different general circulation models. An LGM distribution in the southern peninsulas was predicted by the SDM approaches, in line with the occurrence of lineages of S. minutus in these areas. The phylogeographic analyses also indicated a widespread and strictly northern‐central European lineage, not derived from southern peninsulas, and with a postglacial population expansion signature. This was consistent with the SDM predictions of suitable LGM conditions for S. minutus occurring across central and eastern Europe, from unglaciated parts of the British Isles to much of the eastern European Plain. Hence, S. minutus likely persisted in parts of central and eastern Europe during the LGM, from where it colonized other northern areas during the late‐glacial and postglacial periods. Our results provide new insights into the glacial and postglacial colonization history of the European mammal fauna, notably supporting glacial refugia further north than traditionally recognized.     

Vegetation and climate changes during the last 21 000 years in S.W. Africa based on a marine pollen record

A high resolution marine pollen record from site GeoB1023, west of the northern Namib desert provides data on vegetation and climate change for the last 21 ka at an average resolution of 185 y. Pollen and spores are mainly delivered to the site by the Cunene river and by surface and mid-tropospheric wind systems. The main pollen source areas are located between 13°S and 21°S, which includes the northern Namib desert and semi-desert, the Angola-northern Namibian highland, and the north-western Kalahari. The pollen spectra reflect environmental changes in the region. The last glacial maximum (LGM) was characterised by colder and more arid conditions than at present, when a vegetation with temperate elements such as Asteroideae, Ericaceae, and Restionaceae grew north of 21°S. At 17.5 ka cal. B.P., an amelioration both in temperature and humidity terminated the LGM but, in the northern Kalahari, mean annual rainfall in the interval 17.5-14.4 ka cal. B.P. was probably 100–150 mm lower than at present (400–500 mm/y). The Late-glacial to early Holocene transition includes two arid periods, i.e. 14.4–12.5 and 10.9–9.3 ka cal. B.P. The last part of the former period may be correlated with the Younger Dryas. The warmest and most humid period in the Holocene occurred between 6.3 and 4.8 ka cal. B.P. During the last 2000 years, human impact, as reflected by indications of deforestation, enhanced burning and overgrazing, progressively intensified.     

Last glacial maximum biomes reconstructed from pollen and plant macrofossil data from northern Eurasia

Pollen and plant macrofossil data from northern Eurasia were used to reconstruct the vegetation of the last glacial maximum (LGM: 18,000 ± 2000 ¹⁴C yr bp ) using an objective quantitative method for interpreting pollen data in terms of the biomes they represent ( Prentice et al., 1996 ). The results confirm previous qualitative vegetation reconstructions at the LGM but provide a more comprehensive analysis of the data. Tundra dominated a large area of northern Eurasia (north of 57°N) to the west, south and east of the Scandinavian ice sheet at the LGM. Steppe‐like vegetation was reconstructed in the latitudinal band from western Ukraine, where temperate deciduous forests grow today, to western Siberia, where taiga and cold deciduous forests grow today. The reconstruction shows that steppe graded into tundra in Siberia, which is not the case today. Taiga grew on the northern coast of the Sea of Azov, about 1500 km south of its present limit in European Russia. In contrast, taiga was reconstructed only slightly south of its southern limit today in south‐western Siberia. Broadleaved trees were confined to small refuges, e.g. on the eastern coast of the Black Sea, where cool mixed forest was reconstructed from the LGM data. Cool conifer forests in western Georgia were reconstructed as growing more than 1000 m lower than they grow today. The few scattered sites with LGM data from the Tien‐Shan Mountains and from northern Mongolia yielded biome reconstructions of steppe and taiga, which are the biomes growing there today.     

New High Resolution Pollen Records from Two Lakes in Xizang (Tibet)

Studies on the pollen from cores of Lake Hidden (29~48.77' N, 92~22.37' E) and Ren Co (30%3.97'N, 96~40.97'E) in Southeast Xizang (Tibet) showed climatic changes and the evolution of vegetation since the last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Before 16 ka BP pollen assemblages were dominated by Chenopodiaceae (20% -50% ) and Artemidis (10% ~ 30% ) and pollen influx values were very low from Lake Ren Co in Basu county. The vegetation around the lake was probably a desert-steppe during the LGM. The data also suggest that the climate in the Basu area was cold and dry during the LGM and the last glacial time. The mean annual temperature was probably 4 ~ 6 ℃ colder than the present, and the mean annual precipitation was only 250 mm, about 40% of the present. The Southwest monsoon became stronger from 12 ka BP to 6 ka BP reaching its acme by 7 ka BP, but weakened gradually from 5 ka BP to the present. The paleovegetation was dominantly forest or forest-meadow around Lake Hidden and Ren Co during the 9.2 ~ 5 ka BP. The mean temperature in January was probably 2 ~ 3 ℃ higher than the present, and the mean annual precipitation was 100 mm more than the present. The timing of vegetational and climatic changes based on pollen records generally supports the results of global climatic-model experiments that predict a strengthened monsoon system during the early to middle Holocene followed by a weakened monsoon system.     

Climatic and biotic velocities for woody taxa distributions over the last 16 000 years in eastern North America

We estimated the latitudinal velocity (km/decade) of northern and southern boundaries of core distributions for 30 woody taxa over the last 16 000 years (biotic velocities) using networks of fossil pollen records, and compared these with climate velocities estimated from CCSM3 simulations. Biotic velocities were faster during periods of rapid temperature change (i.e. 16 to 7 ka) than times of relative stability (i.e. 7 to 1 ka), with a consistent northward movement of northern and southern boundaries. For most taxa, biotic velocities were faster for northern than for southern boundaries between 12 and 7 ka, resulting in expanding distributions. For individual time periods, biotic velocities were as fast or faster than climate velocities calculated using multivariate approaches. These results indicate that climate change paced the rate of distribution shifts in both northern and southern populations while suggesting that northern populations were more sensitive. A similar sensitivity and pacing is expected under 21st century climate change.     

Inverted patterns of genetic diversity in continental and island populations of the heather Erica scoparia s.l.

Aim Using the heather Erica scoparia s.l. as a model, this paper aims to test theoretical predictions that island populations are genetically less diverse than continental ones and to determine the extent to which island and continental populations are connected by pollen‐ and seed‐mediated gene flow. Location Macaronesia, Mediterranean, Atlantic fringe of Europe. Methods Patterns of genetic diversity are described based on variation at two chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) loci and one nuclear DNA (nDNA) locus for 109 accessions across the entire distribution range of the species. Global patterns of genetic differentiation were investigated using principal coordinates analysis. Genetic differentiation between island and continental areas, estimations of pollen‐ and seed‐mediated gene flow, and the presence of phylogeographical signal were assessed by means of F_st /N_ST (continental scale) and F_ij/N_ij (local scale). Extant and past distribution ranges of the species were inferred from niche modelling using layers describing present and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) macroclimatic conditions. Results The Azores exhibited a significantly higher genetic diversity than the continent. The lowest levels of genetic differentiation were observed between the Azores and the western Mediterranean, and the diversity observed in the Azores resulted from at least two colonization waves. Within the Azores, kinship coefficients showed a significant and much steeper decrease with geographical distance in the cpDNA than in the nDNA. The distribution predicted by LGM models was markedly different from the current potential distribution, particularly in western Europe, where no suitable areas were predicted by LGM models, and along the Atlantic coast of the African continent, where LGM models predicted highly suitable climatic conditions. Main conclusions The higher diversity observed in Azorean than in continental populations is inconsistent with MacArthur and Wilson’s equilibrium model and derived theoretical population genetic expectations. This inverted pattern may be the result of extinction on the continent coupled with multiple island colonization events and subsequent allopatric diversification and lineage hybridization in the Azores. The results highlight the role of allopatric diversification in explaining diversification on islands and suggest that this process has played a much more significant role in shaping Azorean biodiversity than previously thought.     

Glacial refugia for summer-green trees in Europe and south-west Asia as proposed by ECHAM3 time-slice atmospheric model simulations

Aim  To generate maps of potential refugia for summer-green trees during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
Locations  Southern Europe and south-western Asia.
Methods  Time-slice simulations of the atmospheric climate with the ECHAM3 model are used for the LGM. Limiting factors beyond which cool and warm groups of deciduous trees cannot grow (such as temperature in growing degree days, minimum monthly temperature and precipitation in summer) are chosen. A limited validation by fossil pollen and charcoal records from LGM sites was done.
Results  Two sets of maps extending from Europe to the Caspian region for cool and warm summer-green trees are presented. Three criteria are combined using contour lines to indicate confidence levels. Small areas within the three southern peninsulas of Europe (Spain, Italy and Greece) are highlighted as possible refugia for summer-green trees. Further, areas that have remained poorly known are now proposed as refugia, including the Sakarya–Kerempe region in northern Turkey, the east coast of the Black Sea and the area south of the Caspian Sea.
Main conclusions  The maps produced in this study could be used to facilitate better long-term management for the protection of European and south-western Asian biodiversity.     

A mitochondrial revelation of early human migrations to the Tibetan Plateau before and after the last glacial maximum

As the highest plateau surrounded by towering mountain ranges, the Tibetan Plateau was once considered to be one of the last populated areas of modern humans. However, this view has been tremendously changed by archeological, linguistic, and genetic findings in the past 60 years. Nevertheless, the timing and routes of entry of modern humans into the Tibetan Plateau is still unclear. To make these problems clear, we carried out high‐resolution mitochondrial‐DNA (mtDNA) analyses on 562 Tibeto‐Burman inhabitants from nine different regions across the plateau. By examining the mtDNA haplogroup distributions and their principal components, we demonstrated that maternal diversity on the plateau reflects mostly a northern East Asian ancestry. Furthermore, phylogeographic analysis of plateau‐specific sublineages based on 31 complete mtDNA sequences revealed two primary components: pre‐last glacial maximum (LGM) inhabitants and post‐LGM immigrants. Also, the analysis of one major pre‐LGM sublineage A10 showed a strong signal of post‐LGM population expansion (about 15,000 years ago) and greater diversity in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau, indicating the southern plateau as a refuge place when climate dramatically changed during LGM. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2010. © 2010 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Conservatism of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition

Aim  To provide a test of the conservatism of a species' niche over the last 20,000 years by tracking the distribution of eight pollen taxa relative to climate type as they migrated across eastern North America following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
Location  North America.
Methods  We drew taxon occurrence data from the North American pollen records in the Global Pollen Database, representing eight pollen types – all taxa for which ≥5 distinct geographic occurrences were available in both the present day and at the LGM (21,000 years ago ± 3000 years). These data were incorporated into ecological niche models based on present-day and LGM climatological summaries available from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to produce predicted potential geographic distributions for each species at present and at the LGM. The output for each time period was projected onto the 'other' time period, and tested using independent known occurrence information from that period.
Results  The result of our analyses was that all species tested showed general conservatism in ecological characteristics over the climate changes associated with the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition.
Main conclusions  This analysis constitutes a further demonstration of general and pervasive conservatism in ecological niche characteristics over moderate periods of time despite profound changes in climate and environmental conditions. As such, our results reinforce the application of ecological niche modelling techniques to the reconstruction of Pleistocene biodiversity distribution patterns, and to project the future potential distribution range of species in the face of global-scale climatic changes.     

Inferring the past to predict the future: climate modelling predictions and phylogeography for the freshwater gastropod Radix balthica (Pulmonata, Basommatophora)

Understanding the impact of past climatic events on species may facilitate predictions of how species will respond to future climate change. To this end, we sampled populations of the common pond snail Radix balthica over the entire species range (northwestern Europe). Using a recently developed analytical framework that employs ecological niche modelling to obtain hypotheses that are subsequently tested with statistical phylogeography, we inferred the range dynamics of R. balthica over time. A Maxent modelling for present-day conditions was performed to infer the climate envelope for the species, and the modelled niche was used to hindcast climatically suitable range at the last glacial maximum (LGM) c . 21 000 years ago. Ecological niche modelling predicted two suitable areas at the LGM within the present species range. Phylogeographic model selection on a COI mitochondrial DNA data set confirmed that R. balthica most likely spread from these two disjunct refuges after the LGM. The match observed between the potential range of the species at the LGM given its present climatic requirements and the phylogeographically inferred refugial areas was a clear argument in favour of niche conservatism in R. balthica , thus allowing to predict the future range. The subsequent projection of the potential range under a global change scenario predicts a moderate pole-ward shift of the northern range limits, but a dramatic loss of areas currently occupied in France, western Great Britain and southern Germany.     

末次盛冰期以来观光木的潜在地理分布变迁

观光木(Tsoongiodendron odorum)是木兰科的古老残遗物种, 目前正面临严峻的生存威胁, 属于极小种群濒危植物。通过生态位模型(ENM)能够重建观光木地理分布格局的历史变迁, 探究气候变化对该物种分布的影响, 并了解其地理分布与气候需求间的关系, 从而为全球变暖背景下观光木的保护提供理论基础。该文基于96条现代分布记录和8个环境变量, 采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟观光木在末次盛冰期、全新世中期、现代和未来(2061-2080年, RCP 8.5)的潜在分布区, 利用SDM toolbox分析观光木的地理空间变化, 并综合贡献率、置换重要值和Jackknife检验来评估气候因子的重要性。研究结果表明: (1)观光木的高度适生区在南岭地区, 末次盛冰期时没有大尺度向南退缩, 很可能在山区避难所原地存活; (2)在全新世中期和未来两个增温的气候情境下, 观光木的分布区均表现为缩减, 其中未来分布的减幅更大, 表明气候变暖对观光木的生长有一定的负面影响; (3)总体上看, 观光木各个时期的地理分布范围相对稳定, 说明观光木对气候变化有一定的适应能力, 人为活动或自身繁育问题可能是致濒的重要原因, 并建议对广东和广西群体进行优先保护。