Reduced reproductive performance associated with warmer ambient temperatures during incubation in a winter‐breeding,food‐storing passerine

Timing of reproduction can influence individual fitness whereby early breeders tend to have higher reproductive success than late breeders. However, the fitness consequences of timing of breeding may also be influenced by environmental conditions after the commencement of breeding. We tested whether ambient temperatures during the incubation and early nestling periods modulated the effect of laying date on brood size and dominant juvenile survival in gray jays (Perisoreus canadensis), a sedentary boreal species whose late winter nesting depends, in part, on caches of perishable food. Previous evidence has suggested that warmer temperatures degrade the quality of these food hoards, and we asked whether warmer ambient temperatures during the incubation and early nestling periods would be associated with smaller brood sizes and lower summer survival of dominant juveniles. We used 38 years of data from a range‐edge population of gray jays in Algonquin Provincial Park, Ontario, where the population has declined over 50% since the study began. Consistent with the “hoard‐rot” hypothesis, we found that cold temperatures during incubation were associated with larger brood sizes in later breeding attempts, but temperatures had little effect on brood size for females breeding early in the season. This is the first evidence that laying date and temperature during incubation interactively influence brood size in any bird species. We did not find evidence that ambient temperatures during the incubation period or early part of the nestling period influenced summer survival of dominant juveniles. Our findings provide evidence that warming temperatures are associated with some aspects of reduced reproductive performance in a species that is reliant on cold temperatures to store perishable food caches, some of which are later consumed during the reproductive period.     

Melanin coloration has temperature‐dependent effects on breeding performance that may maintain phenotypic variation in a passerine bird

Fluctuating selection pressure may maintain phenotypic variation because of different types of individuals being adapted to different environmental conditions. We show that the extensive variation in the coloration of male pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) can be maintained through differences in the reproductive success of male phenotypes under different conditions. The effects of weather conditions on the relative success of different male phenotypes varied between different phases of breeding. The reproductive output of black males was the highest when it was cold during egg‐laying but warm during the nestling period, whereas the fledgling production of brown males was highest when it was continuously warm. In addition, male forehead and wing patch sizes had context‐dependent effects on timing of breeding and nestling mortality, respectively. These results indicate that environmental heterogeneity plays a role in maintaining phenotypic variation. As melanin‐based coloration is heritable, climate change may alter phenotype frequencies depending on the patterns of warming.     

Moving south: effects of water temperatures on the larval development of invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina) in cool‐temperate Australia

The distributional limits of many ectothermic species are set by thermal tolerances of early‐developmental stages in the life history; embryos and larvae often are less able to buffer environmental variation than are conspecific adults. In pond‐breeding amphibians, for example, cold water may constrain viability of eggs and larvae, even if adults can find suitable thermal conditions in terrestrial niches. Invasive species provide robust model systems for exploring these questions, because we can quantify thermal challenges at the expanding range edge (from field surveys) and larval responses to thermal conditions (in the laboratory). Our studies on invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina) at the southern (cool‐climate) edge of their expanding range in Australia show that available ponds often average around 20°C during the breeding period, 10°C lower than in many areas of the toads’ native range, or in the Australian tropics. Our laboratory experiments showed that cane toad eggs and larvae cannot develop successfully at 16°C, but hatching success and larval survival rates were higher at 20°C than in warmer conditions. Lower temperatures slowed growth rates, increasing the duration of tadpole life, but also increased metamorph body mass. Water temperature also influenced metamorph body shape (high temperatures reduced relative limb length, head width, and body mass) and locomotor performance (increased speed from intermediate temperatures, longer hops from high temperatures). In combination with previous studies, our data suggest that lower water temperatures may enhance rather than reduce recruitment of cane toads, at least in areas where pond temperatures reach or exceed 20°C. That condition is fulfilled over a wide area of southern Australia, suggesting that the continuing expansion of this invasive species is unlikely to be curtailed by the impacts of relatively low water temperatures on the viability of early life‐history stages.     

Species distribution models contribute to determine the effect of climate and interspecific interactions in moving hybrid zones

Climate is a major factor delimiting species’ distributions. However, biotic interactions may also be prominent in shaping geographical ranges, especially for parapatric species forming hybrid zones. Determining the relative effect of each factor and their interaction of the contact zone location has been difficult due to the lack of broad scale environmental data. Recent developments in species distribution modelling (SDM) now allow disentangling the relative contributions of climate and species’ interactions in hybrid zones and their responses to future climate change. We investigated the moving hybrid zone between the breeding ranges of two parapatric passerines in Europe. We conducted SDMs representing the climatic conditions during the breeding season. Our results show a large mismatch between the realized and potential distributions of the two species, suggesting that interspecific interactions, not climate, account for the present location of the contact zone. The SDM scenarios show that the southerly distributed species, Hippolais polyglotta, might lose large parts of its southern distribution under climate change, but a similar gain of novel habitat along the hybrid zone seems unlikely, because interactions with the other species (H. icterina) constrain its range expansion. Thus, whenever biotic interactions limit range expansion, species may become ‘trapped’ if range loss due to climate change is faster than the movement of the contact zone. An increasing number of moving hybrid zones are being reported, but the proximate causes of movement often remain unclear. In a global context of climate change, we call for more interest in their interactions with climate change.     

Intrinsic determinants of a population trend in timing of breeding in the wandering albatross

Numerous studies of wild animal species have documented that population level responses to environmental change are underpinned by individual level phenotypic plasticity. However, where the relationship between an individual trait and a climate variable occurs when both show a trend over time, phenotypic plasticity may be confounded by ageing. We investigated between and within individual change in laying date in the wandering albatross Diomedea exulans, a long‐lived species experiencing a dramatic decline in population size. Laying date has advanced over the last three decades. A mean‐centering analysis demonstrated that this pattern was driven by within‐individual changes as opposed to appearance or disappearance of phenotypes. Furthermore, a lack of between individual effect suggested the change resulted from ageing as opposed to phenotypic plasticity. Females varied significantly in rate of advance, such that those with low past reproductive rates exhibited a negative temporal trend in laying date, whereas birds with moderate to high past reproductive performance showed little change. The population trend was therefore driven by a subset with low past breeding success. An analysis of effects of timing of breeding on breeding success revealed stabilizing selection for relative laying date. Furthermore, current breeding success was positively related to past success rate, which suggests that there may be indirect selection against plasticity in this population. Our results show that population trends can arise from individual level change unrelated to prevailing environmental conditions, thus demonstrating the importance of longitudinal analyses in the interpretation of climate change effects.     

Different responses to cold weather in two pied flycatcher populations

We compared how breeding parameters differ according to prevailing weather conditions between a marginal, subarctic (69°N) and temperate (61°N) population of the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, a small migratory insectivorous passerine. We predicted that the effects of weather on breeding performance (clutch size, hatching success, nestling growth, fledging success) would be greater at northern latitudes, where the weather conditions are more extreme and unpredictable. We found that the breeding parameters, except clutch size, were not, however, inferior in the north. Northern birds, unlike the southern ones, responded to colder conditions by laying smaller clutches and maintaining a larger energy reserve (indicated by higher female body mass and higher levels of subcutaneous fat). If a cold spell occurred during the nestling period, southern flycatchers had 5–10% lower fledging success than the northern ones. Our results indicate that in the north, the breeding individuals coped with cold and variable weather better than the individuals in the southern population. This could be adaptive, because at high latitudes there is a higher probability of cold weather at the time of breeding.     

Annual global mean temperature explains reproductive success in a marine vertebrate from 1955 to 2010

The salient feature of anthropogenic climate change over the last century has been the rise in global mean temperature. However, global mean temperature is not used as an explanatory variable in studies of population‐level response to climate change, perhaps because the signal‐to‐noise ratio of this gross measure makes its effect difficult to detect in any but the longest of datasets. Using a population of Leach's storm‐petrels breeding in the Bay of Fundy, we tested whether local, regional, or global temperature measures are the best index of reproductive success in the face of climate change in species that travel widely between and within seasons. With a 56‐year dataset, we found that annual global mean temperature (AGMT) was the single most important predictor of hatching success, more so than regional sea surface temperatures (breeding season or winter) and local air temperatures at the nesting colony. Storm‐petrel reproductive success showed a quadratic response to rising temperatures, in that hatching success increased up to some critical temperature, and then declined when AGMT exceeded that temperature. The year at which AGMT began to consistently exceed that critical temperature was 1988. Importantly, in this population of known‐age individuals, the impact of changing climate was greatest on inexperienced breeders: reproductive success of inexperienced birds increased more rapidly as temperatures rose and declined more rapidly after the tipping point than did reproductive success of experienced individuals. The generality of our finding that AGMT is the best predictor of reproductive success in this system may hinge on two things. First, an integrative global measure may be best for species in which individuals move across an enormous spatial range, especially within seasons. Second, the length of our dataset and our capacity to account for individual‐ and age‐based variation in reproductive success increase our ability to detect a noisy signal.     

Breeding success at the range margin of a desert species: implications for a climate‐induced elevational shift

If the breeding range of a species is limited by biotic or abiotic environmental factors that depress breeding success at the range margin, then range expansion is expected when those limiting factors are alleviated. Over a three‐year period, we measured breeding success of a desert species, black‐throated sparrow Amphispiza bilineata, along a steep elevation gradient between the Peninsular Mountains and Colorado Desert (San Diego County, California) that is undergoing a warming trend. We compared breeding success at geographically marginal locations (higher‐elevation chaparral sites) to more central locations (lower‐elevation desert scrub sites) only a short distance apart. Breeding success was measured at the nest level, territory level, and population level. At each level measured, breeding success tended to be greater at higher‐elevation chaparral sites at the distribution margin compared to lower‐elevation sites where the bird was more common. Black‐throated sparrows had 100% reproductive failure at lower‐elevation sites during the two driest years of our study (2006–2007), but did relatively well at higher‐elevation sites. Only in a wetter year (2008) was breeding success improved at lower‐elevation sites. Surprisingly, there was no evidence of an upward elevational shift in distribution over a 26‐year period despite a clear warming trend and drier conditions. Greater territory density at lower‐elevation sites with reproductive failure during dry years suggests the possibility of an ecological trap in this system, which could prevent or delay climate‐induced range shifts. A common presumption has been that desert species will undergo relatively mild negative impacts due to a warming climate, but it is possible that some desert species are already at or near their temperature and aridity tolerance limits within their current range and shifts may not always be possible.     

Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long‐term climate change on a poleward range shift

Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long‐term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2 years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350 km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species.     

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range‐edge populations

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range‐edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range‐edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range‐edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range‐core populations. We also highlight how large‐scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest‐cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range‐edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range‐edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.     

Carry-over effects from passage regions are more important than breeding climate in determining the breeding phenology and performance of three avian migrants of conservation concern

Long distance migrants are declining more rapidly than residents, with birds that breed in Europe and winter in tropical Africa providing particularly clear examples. Causal mechanisms may include climate change, but are poorly understood partly because carry-over effects from non-breeding ranges can influence breeding performance. Using long-term data spanning four decades we assess how climatic variation in migrants’ winter, passage and breeding ranges determine timing of breeding and reproductive success. We do so for three Afro-European avian migrants of regional conservation concern (redstart, spotted flycatcher and wood warbler). We find that carry-over effects from passage regions consistently had stronger impacts on breeding phenology than breeding climate. Warm Mediterranean passage conditions promoted earlier breeding in all species, and redstarts also bred earlier following higher Sahel rainfall. Warmer springs on the breeding grounds promoted slightly earlier breeding in redstart and wood warbler, but not spotted flycatcher. Carry-over effects also typically influenced breeding performance to a greater extent than weather on the breeding grounds. Greater rainfall in the Sahel increased redstart brood size, warmer Mediterranean passage conditions increased spotted flycatcher brood size and, to a lesser extent, the number of wood warbler fledglings. In contrast to the concern regarding climate change impacts on migrants’ breeding grounds we found no evidence that warmer temperatures on the breeding grounds were associated with reduced reproductive performance. We thus find that climatic variation on the non-breeding grounds, especially passage regions, typically influenced migrants’ breeding phenology and demography more strongly than equivalent variation on the breeding sites. Such carry-over effects should be considered when assessing the causes of migrants’ marked population declines.     

Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change

Although climate warming is expected to make habitat beyond species’ current cold range edge suitable for future colonization, this new habitat may present an array of biotic or abiotic conditions not experienced within the current range. Species’ ability to shift their range with climate change may therefore depend on how populations evolve in response to such novel environmental conditions. However, due to the recent nature of thus far observed range expansions, the role of rapid adaptation during climate change migration is only beginning to be understood. Here, we evaluated evolution during the recent native range expansion of the annual plant Dittrichia graveolens, which is spreading northward in Europe from the Mediterranean region. We examined genetically based differentiation between core and edge populations in their phenology, a trait that is likely under selection with shorter growing seasons and greater seasonality at northern latitudes. In parallel common garden experiments at range edges in Switzerland and the Netherlands, we grew plants from Dutch, Swiss, and central and southern French populations. Population genetic analysis following RAD‐sequencing of these populations supported the hypothesized central France origins of the Swiss and Dutch range edge populations. We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to 4 weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread.     

Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species’ geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland‐southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change and demonstrate the importance of incorporating biogeographical variability into predictive models for an accurate prediction of species dynamics as climate changes.     

Impact of climate change and prey abundance on nesting success of a top predator, the goshawk

Contemporary research has documented a large number of shifts in spring phenology and changes in distribution range although the average spring temperatures have increased by only 0.3–0.6 °C over the past 100 years. Generally, earlier breeding birds have larger clutch sizes, and the advancing spring could thus potentially increase breeding success. Shifts in spring phenology can, however, be crucial for bird reproduction, and mistiming the breeding event may even have negative consequences for population development. Our aim was to explore how weather and prey abundance relates to the breeding performance of a north European top predator, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. Our nationwide dataset from Finland, spanning the period 1989–2004, shows that ambient weather has a greater impact on the timing and success of breeding than the density of grouse Tetraonidae, the main prey of goshawks. Higher early spring temperatures were associated with advancing hatching date of goshawks. Correspondingly, grouse density and temperature during laying and brooding were positively associated with brood size, while precipitation showed a negative connection. Applying our models to a future scenario of climate warming, combined with a 50 % reduction in grouse density, suggests that average breeding dates will advance only 2.5 days and average breeding success would remain the same. Notably, breeding success was not spatially equal throughout Finland, as northern and eastern populations suffered most from declining grouse densities. The observed pattern is thus the opposite to what is expected from a population situated at the northern edge of its distribution range, and thus may help to understand why populations may not increase at the northern edge of their thermal distribution due to climate change.     

Parabolic variation in sexual selection intensity across the range of a cold‐water pipefish: implications for susceptibility to climate change

While an understanding of evolutionary processes in shifting environments is vital in the context of rapid ecological change, one of the most potent selective forces, sexual selection, remains curiously unexplored. Variation in sexual selection across a species range, especially across a gradient of temperature regimes, has the potential to provide a window into the possible impacts of climate change on the evolution of mating patterns. Here, we investigated some of the links between temperature and indicators of sexual selection, using a cold‐water pipefish as model. We found that populations differed with respect to body size, length of the breeding season, fecundity, and sexual dimorphism across a wide latitudinal gradient. We encountered two types of latitudinal patterns, either linear, when related to body size, or parabolic in shape when considering variables related to sexual selection intensity, such as sexual dimorphism and reproductive investment. Our results suggest that sexual selection intensity increases toward both edges of the distribution and that the large differences in temperature likely play a significant role. Shorter breeding seasons in the north and reduced periods for gamete production in the south certainly have the potential to alter mating systems, breeding synchrony, and mate monopolization rates. As latitude and water temperature are tightly coupled across the European coasts, the observed patterns in traits related to sexual selection can lead to predictions regarding how sexual selection should change in response to climate change. Based on data from extant populations, we can predict that as the worm pipefish moves northward, a wave of decreasing selection intensity will likely replace the strong sexual selection at the northern range margin. In contrast, the southern populations will be followed by heightened sexual selection, which may exacerbate the problem of local extinction at this retreating boundary.     

Impact of temperature on the breeding performance and selection patterns in lesser kestrels Falco naumanni

Adjusting breeding phenology to climate fluctuations can be problematic for migratory birds as they have to account for local environmental conditions on the breeding grounds while migrating from remote wintering areas. Predicting general responses to climate change is not straightforward, because these responses vary between migrant species due to the species‐specific ecological drivers of breeding behaviour. Therefore more information is needed on species with different ecological requirements, including data on heritability of migration, factors driving phenological changes and how climate affects selection pressures. Here, we measure heritability in settlement dates and the effect of local climate at the breeding grounds on settlement dates, reproductive success and selection patterns in a French population of a trans‐Saharan migratory insectivorous raptor, the lesser kestrel Falco naumanni, monitored and ringed since 1996. Heritability of settlement dates was low (0.07 ± 0.03), indicating a weak evolutionary potential. Nevertheless, plasticity in settlement dates in response to temperatures allowed earlier settlement when early spring was warmer than average. Reproductive success and selection patterns were strongly affected by temperature during settlement and chick rearing respectively. Warmer spring decreased selection for earlier settling and warmer early summer increased reproductive success. Interestingly, selection for earlier settling was more intense in cooler springs, contrasting with patterns from passerines lagging behind food peaks. Altogether, these results suggest a positive effect of warmer temperatures on breeding performances of lesser kestrels most likely because the French population is at the coolest boundary of the species European breeding range.     

The effects of four decades of climate change on the breeding ecology of an avian sentinel species across a 1,500‐km latitudinal gradient are stronger at high latitudes

Global warming affects breeding phenology of birds differentially with latitude, but there is contrasting evidence about how the changing climate influences the breeding of migrating songbirds at their northern breeding range. We investigate the effect of climate warming on breeding time and breeding success of European pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca in Sweden during a period of 36 years using nest reports from bird ringing. To account for the latitudinal variation, we divided Sweden into three latitudinal bands (northern, intermediate, and southern). We applied a sliding window approach to find the most influential period and environment characteristics (temperature, vegetation greenness, and precipitation), using linear mixed models and model averaging. Our results show a long‐term advancement of breeding time related to increasing spring temperature and vegetation greenness during a period before hatching. Northern breeders revealed a larger advancement over the years (8.3 days) compared with southern breeders (3.6 days). We observed a relatively stronger effect of temperature and greenness on breeding time in the north. Furthermore, northern birds showed an increase in breeding success over time, while birds breeding at southern and intermediate latitudes showed reduced breeding success in years with higher prehatching temperatures. Our findings with stronger environment effects on breeding time advancement in the north suggest that pied flycatchers are more responsive to weather cues at higher latitudes. Breeding time adjustment and, potentially, low competition help explain the higher long‐term success observed in the north. Reduced breeding success at more southerly latitudes suggests an inability to match breeding time to very early and warm springs, a fate that with continued climate change could also be expected for pied flycatchers and other long‐distance migrants at their very northern breeding range.     

Effects of Extreme Weather on Reproductive Success in a Temperate-Breeding Songbird

The frequency of extreme meteorological events such as heat waves and rainstorms is predicted to increase with climate change. However, there is still little information about how extreme weather influences reproduction in animals. It may not only affect breeding success but might also alter offspring sex ratio if males and females are differentially sensitive to meteorological conditions during development. We investigated the relationship between meteorological conditions and reproductive success over 6 years in a house sparrow population in central Europe. We found that hatching success increased with the number of extremely hot days (daily maximum >31°C) and decreased with the number of extremely cold days (<16°C) during incubation, although the latter effect held only for clutches with relatively short incubation periods. Fledging success was unrelated to weather variables. However, the frequency of extremely hot days had a negative effect on fledglings’ body mass and tarsus length, although both of these traits were positively related to average temperature. Additionally, fledglings’ body mass increased with the length of period without rainfall before fledging. Male to female ratio among fledglings did not differ from 1:1 and did not vary with weather variables. The magnitude of the effects of extreme meteorological events was usually small, although in some cases comparable to those of ecologically relevant predictors of reproductive success. Our results indicate that meteorological conditions have complex effects on breeding success, as the effects of extreme weather can differ between different aspects of reproduction and also from the effects of overall meteorological conditions.     

Prey switching as a means of enhancing persistence in predators at the trailing southern edge

Understanding the effects of climate change on species’ persistence is a major research interest; however, most studies have focused on responses at the northern or expanding range edge. There is a pressing need to explain how species can persist at their southern range when changing biotic interactions will influence species occurrence. For predators, variation in distribution of primary prey owing to climate change will lead to mismatched distribution and local extinction, unless their diet is altered to more extensively include alternate prey. We assessed whether addition of prey information in climate projections restricted projected habitat of a specialist predator, Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and if switching from their primary prey (snowshoe hare; Lepus americanus) to an alternate prey (red squirrel; Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) mitigates range restriction along the southern range edge. Our models projected distributions of each species to 2050 and 2080 to then refine predictions for southern lynx on the basis of varying combinations of prey availability. We found that models that incorporated information on prey substantially reduced the total predicted southern range of lynx in both 2050 and 2080. However, models that emphasized red squirrel as the primary species had 7–24% lower southern range loss than the corresponding snowshoe hare model. These results illustrate that (i) persistence at the southern range may require species to exploit higher portions of alternate food; (ii) selection may act on marginal populations to accommodate phenotypic changes that will allow increased use of alternate resources; and (iii) climate projections based solely on abiotic data can underestimate the severity of future range restriction. In the case of Canada lynx, our results indicate that the southern range likely will be characterized by locally varying levels of mismatch with prey such that the extent of range recession or local adaptation may appear as a geographical mosaic.     

Earlier breeding,lower success: does the spatial scale of climatic conditions matter in a migratory passerine bird?

Following over 20 years of research on the climatic effects on biodiversity we now have strong evidence that climate change affects phenology, fitness, and distribution ranges of different taxa, including birds. Bird phenology likely responds to changes in local weather. It is also affected by climatic year‐to‐year variations on larger scales. Although such scale‐related effects are common in ecology, most studies analyzing the effects of climate change were accomplished using climatic information on a single spatial scale. In this study, we aimed at determining the scale‐dependent sensitivity of breeding phenology and success to climate change in a migratory passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica). For both annual broods, we investigated effects of local weather (local scale) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, large scale) on the timing of breeding and breeding success. Consistent with previous studies in migratory birds we found that barn swallows in Eastern Germany bred progressively earlier. At the same time, they showed reduced breeding success over time in response to recent climatic changes. Responses to climatic variation were observed on both local and large climatic scales, but they differed with respect to the ecological process considered. Specifically, we found that the timing of breeding was primarily influenced by large‐scale NAO variations and to a lesser extent by local weather on the breeding grounds. Conversely, climatic conditions on the local scale affected breeding success, exclusively. The observed decrease in breeding success over years is likely a consequence of scale‐related mismatches between climatic conditions during different breeding phases. This provides further evidence that a species' response of earlier breeding may not be enough to cope with climate change. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the response of ecological processes along different climatic scales in order to better understand the complexity of climate change effects on biodiversity.