Assessing predation risk to threatened fauna from their prevalence in predator scats: dingoes and rodents in arid Australia

The prevalence of threatened species in predator scats has often been used to gauge the risks that predators pose to threatened species, with the infrequent occurrence of a given species often considered indicative of negligible predation risks. In this study, data from 4087 dingo (Canis lupus dingo and hybrids) scats were assessed alongside additional information on predator and prey distribution, dingo control effort and predation rates to evaluate whether or not the observed frequency of threatened species in dingo scats warrants more detailed investigation of dingo predation risks to them. Three small rodents (dusky hopping-mice Notomys fuscus; fawn hopping-mice Notomys cervinus; plains mice Pseudomys australis) were the only threatened species detected in <8% of dingo scats from any given site, suggesting that dingoes might not threaten them. However, consideration of dingo control effort revealed that plains mice distribution has largely retracted to the area where dingoes have been most heavily subjected to lethal control. Assessing the hypothetical predation rates of dingoes on dusky hopping-mice revealed that dingo predation alone has the potential to depopulate local hopping-mice populations within a few months. It was concluded that the occurrence of a given prey species in predator scats may be indicative of what the predator ate under the prevailing conditions, but in isolation, such data can have a poor ability to inform predation risk assessments. Some populations of threatened fauna assumed to derive a benefit from the presence of dingoes may instead be susceptible to dingo-induced declines under certain conditions.     

Comparative NMR studies of diffusional water permeability of red blood cells from different species: XVI Dingo (Canis familiaris dingo) and dog (Canis familiaris)

As part of a programme of comparative measurements of P _d (diffusional water permeability) the RBCs (red blood cells) from dingo (Canis familiaris dingo) and greyhound dog (Canis familiaris) were studied. The morphologies of the dingo and greyhound RBCs [examined by light and SEM (scanning electron microscopy)] were found to be very similar, with regard to aspect ratio and size; the mean diameters were estimated to be the same (～7.2 μm) for both dingo and greyhound RBCs. The water diffusional permeability was monitored by using an Mn²⁺‐doping ¹H NMR technique at 400 MHz. The P _d (cm/s) values of dingo and greyhound RBCs were similar: 6.5×10^?3 at 25°C, 7.5×10^?3 at 30°C, 10×10^?3 at 37°C and 11.5×10^?3 at 42°C. The inhibitory effect of a mercury‐containing SH (sulfhydryl)‐modifying reagent PCMBS (p‐chloromercuribenzene sulfonate) was investigated. The maximal inhibition of dingo and greyhound RBCs was reached in 15–30 min at 37°C with 2 mmol/l PCMBS. The values of maximal inhibition were in the range 72–74% when measured at 25°C and 30°C, and ～66% at 37°C. The lowest value of P _d (corresponding to the basal permeability to water) was ～2–3×10^?3 cm/s in the temperature range 25–37°C. The E _a,d (activation energy of water diffusion) was 25 kJ/mol for dingo RBC and 23 kJ/mol for greyhound RBCs. After incubation with PCMBS, the values of E _a,d increased, reaching 46–48 kJ/mol in the condition of maximal inhibition of water exchange. The electrophoretograms of membrane polypeptides of the dingo and greyhound RBCs were compared and seen to be very similar. We postulate that the RBC parameters reported in the present study are characteristic of all canine species and, in particular in the two cases presented here, these parameters have not been changed by the peculiar Australian habitat over the millennia (as in the case of the dingo) or over shorter time periods, decades or centuries (as in the case of the domestic greyhound).     

More than Mere Numbers: The Impact of Lethal Control on the Social Stability of a Top-Order Predator

Population control of socially complex species may have profound ecological implications that remain largely invisible if only their abundance is considered. Here we discuss the effects of control on a socially complex top-order predator, the dingo (Canis lupus dingo). Since European occupation of Australia, dingoes have been controlled over much of the continent. Our aim was to investigate the effects of control on their abundance and social stability. We hypothesized that dingo abundance and social stability are not linearly related, and proposed a theoretical model in which dingo populations may fluctuate between three main states: (A) below carrying capacity and socially fractured, (B) above carrying capacity and socially fractured, or (C) at carrying capacity and socially stable. We predicted that lethal control would drive dingoes into the unstable states A or B, and that relaxation of control would allow recovery towards C. We tested our predictions by surveying relative abundance (track density) and indicators of social stability (scent-marking and howling) at seven sites in the arid zone subject to differing degrees of control. We also monitored changes in dingo abundance and social stability following relaxation and intensification of control. Sites where dingoes had been controlled within the previous two years were characterized by low scent-marking activity, but abundance was similar at sites with and without control. Signs of social stability steadily increased the longer an area was allowed to recover from control, but change in abundance did not follow a consistent path. Comparison of abundance and stability among all sites and years demonstrated that control severely fractures social groups, but that the effect of control on abundance was neither consistent nor predictable. Management decisions involving large social predators must therefore consider social stability to ensure their conservation and ecological functioning.     

Do dingoes suppress the activity of feral cats in northern Australia?

Large predators can have profound impacts on community composition. Not only do they directly affect prey abundance, they also indirectly affect prey abundance through their direct effects on smaller predators. In Australia, dingoes fill the role of a large predator and, in southern Australia, have clear impacts on introduced foxes. Their effect on introduced cats, however, is less clear. Here we present data from multiple sites across northern Australia (where foxes are absent), which reveal a negative correlation between cat and dingo activity. This relationship could arise because cats avoid areas where dingoes are active, or because cats are less abundant in areas with high dingo densities, or a combination of both. At a subset of our study sites, we experimentally reduced dingo (but not cat) abundance by poison baiting. This resulted in a 55% drop in dingo activity within 4 weeks of baiting, but without a compensatory increase in cat activity. This suggests the negative correlation between cat and dingo activity is not a simple consequence of cats reactively avoiding areas with higher dingo traffic, but rather, that there are fewer cats in areas where dingoes are more active. This study is a rare demonstration of the potential for dingoes to affect the behaviour and potentially the population size of feral cats, and therefore reduce the impact of feral cats on vulnerable native prey species.     

Effects of gape and tooth position on bite force and skull stress in the dingo (Canis lupus dingo) using a 3-dimensional finite element approach

Models of the mammalian jaw have predicted that bite force is intimately linked to jaw gape and to tooth position. Despite widespread use, few empirical studies have provided evidence to validate these models in non-human mammals and none have considered the influence of gape angle on the distribution of stress. Here using a multi-property finite element (FE) model of Canis lupus dingo, we examined the influence of gape angle and bite point on both bite force and cranial stress. Bite force data in relation to jaw gape and along the tooth row, are in broad agreement with previously reported results. However stress data showed that the skull of C. l. dingo is mechanically suited to withstand stresses at wide gapes; a result that agreed well with previously held views regarding carnivoran evolution. Stress data, combined with bite force information, suggested that there is an optimal bite angle of between 25 degrees and 35 degrees in C. l. dingo. The function of these rather small bite angles remains unclear.     

Are dingoes a trophic regulator in arid Australia? A comparison of mammal communities on either side of the dingo fence

The direct and indirect interactions that large mammalian carnivores have with other species can have far‐reaching effects on ecosystems. In recent years there has been growing interest in the role that Australia's largest terrestrial predator, the dingo, may have in structuring ecosystems. In this study we investigate the effect of dingo exclusion on mammal communities, by comparing mammal assemblages where dingoes were present and absent. The study was replicated at three locations spanning 300 km in the Strzelecki Desert. We hypothesized that larger species of mammal subject to direct interactions with dingoes should increase in abundance in the absence of dingoes while smaller species subject to predation by mesopredators should decrease in abundance because of increased mesopredator impact. There were stark differences in mammal assemblages on either side of the dingo fence and the effect of dingoes appeared to scale with body size. Kangaroos and red foxes were more abundant in the absence of dingoes while Rabbits and the Dusky Hopping‐mouse Notomys fuscus were less abundant where dingoes were absent, suggesting that they may benefit from lower red fox numbers in the presence of dingoes. Feral cats and dunnarts (Sminthopsis spp.) did not respond to dingo exclusion. Our study provides evidence that dingoes do structure mammal communities in arid Australia; however, dingo exclusion is also associated with a suite of land use factors, including sheep grazing and kangaroo harvesting that may also be expected to influence kangaroo and red fox populations. Maintaining or restoring populations of dingoes may be useful strategies to mitigate the impacts of mesopredators and overgrazing by herbivores.     

Assessing the taxonomic status of dingoes Canis familiaris dingo for conservation

• 1 The conservation status of the dingo Canis familiaris dingo is threatened by hybridization with the domestic dog C. familiaris familiaris. A practical method that can estimate the different levels of hybridization in the field is urgently required so that animals below a specific threshold of dingo ancestry (e.g. 1/4 or 1/2 dingoes) can reliably be identified and removed from dingo populations.
• 2 Skull morphology has been traditionally used to assess dingo purity, but this method does not discriminate between the different levels of dingo ancestry in hybrids. Furthermore, measurements can only be reliably taken from the skulls of dead animals.
• 3 Methods based on the analysis of variation in DNA are able to discriminate between the different levels of hybridization, but the validity of this method has been questioned because the materials currently used as a reference for dingoes are from captive animals of unproven genetic purity. The use of pre‐European materials would improve the accuracy of this method, but suitable material has not been found in sufficient quantity to develop a reliable reference population. Furthermore, current methods based on DNA are impractical for the field‐based discrimination of hybrids because samples require laboratory analysis.
• 4 Coat colour has also been used to estimate the extent of hybridization and is possibly the most practical method to apply in the field. However, this method may not be as powerful as genetic or morphological analyses because some hybrids (e.g. Australian cattle dog × dingo) are similar to dingoes in coat colour and body form. This problem may be alleviated by using additional visual characteristics such as the presence/absence of ticking and white markings.

     

Resolving the value of the dingo in ecological restoration

There is global interest in restoring populations of apex predators, both to conserve them and to harness their ecological services. In Australia, reintroduction of dingoes (Canis dingo) has been proposed to help restore degraded rangelands. This proposal is based on theories and the results of studies suggesting that dingoes can suppress populations of prey (especially medium‐ and large‐sized herbivores) and invasive predators such as red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cats (Felis catus) that prey on threatened native species. However, the idea of dingo reintroduction has met opposition, especially from scientists who query the dingo's positive effects for some species or in some environments. Here, we ask ‘what is a feasible experimental design for assessing the role of dingoes in ecological restoration?’ We outline and propose a dingo reintroduction experiment—one that draws upon the existing dingo‐proof fence—and identify an area suitable for this (Sturt National Park, western New South Wales). Although challenging, this initiative would test whether dingoes can help restore Australia's rangeland biodiversity, and potentially provide proof‐of‐concept for apex predator reintroductions globally.     

Cranial Shape and the Modularity of Hybridization in Dingoes and Dogs; Hybridization Does Not Spell the End for Native Morphology

Australia’s native wild dog, the dingo (Canis dingo), is threatened by hybridization with feral or domestic dogs. In this study we provide the first comprehensive three dimensional geometric morphometric evaluation of cranial shape for dingoes, dogs and their hybrids. We introduce a novel framework to assess whether modularity facilitates, or constrains, cranial shape change in hybridization. Our results show that hybrid and pure dingo morphology overlaps greatly, meaning that hybrids cannot be reliably distinguished from dingoes on the basis of cranial metrics. We find that dingo morphology is resistant, with observed hybrids exhibiting morphology closer to the dingo than to the parent group dog. We also find that that hybridization with dog breeds does not push the dingo cranial morphology towards the wolf phenotype. Disparity and integration analyses on the ten recovered modules provided empirical support for modularity facilitating shape change over short evolutionary time scales. However, our results show that this is may not be the case in hybridization events, which were not influenced by module integration or disparity levels. We conclude that although hybridization events may introduce breed dog DNA to the dingo population, the native cranial morphology, and therefore likely the feeding eco-niche, of the dingo population is resistant to change. Our results have implications for conservation and management of dingoes and, more broadly, for the influence of integration patterns over ecological time scales in relation to selection pressure.     

Living with Wild Dogs: Personality Dimensions in Captive Dingoes (Canis dingo) and Implications for Ownership

Despite the commonly held belief that wild canines do not make “good” household companions, many people choose to live with them. The aim of the present study was to investigate owner-rated personality in a population of dingoes living as companion animals. Owners recruited from a registered dingo organization assessed the personality of 40 dingoes using the Monash Canine Personality Questionnaire- Revised (MCPQ-R). The dingoes (22 female; 18 male) ranged in age from 6 months to 11 years (M = 3.6 years, SD = 2.4); weighed an average of 19.07 kg (SD = 3.41); were mostly entire (i.e., not de-sexed or spayed or neutered; 62.5%) and lived in multiple dingo households (72.5%). Results show that dingoes were rated significantly higher than domestic dogs (n = 455; various breeds from a previous Australian study) for the dimension Motivation/Self-Assuredness (p < 0.001), and significantly lower than dogs for Training Focus (p < 0.001). Many of the personality traits of dingoes reside outside what is considered “ideal” characteristics important for a successful and rewarding dog–owner relationship. It is possible that dingo personality rests within the realms of what is “acceptable” pet canine behavior, at least for some owners, and that they may have adjusted their perception and attitudes to meet their expectations of the species. Motivations for dingo ownership and the applicability of using a domestic dog personality questionnaire on wild canids are discussed.     

Does a top-predator provide an endangered rodent with refuge from an invasive mesopredator?

In arid environments, ecological refuges are often conceptualised as places where animal species can persist through drought owing to the localised persistence of moisture and nutrients. The mesopredator release hypothesis (MRH) predicts that reduced abundance of top-order predators results in an increase in the abundance of smaller predators (mesopredators) and consequently has detrimental impacts on the prey of the smaller predators. Thus according to the MRH, the existence of larger predators may provide prey with refuge from predation. In this study, we investigated how the abundance of an endangered rodent Notomys fuscus is affected by Australia's largest predator, the dingo Canis lupus dingo , introduced mesopredators, introduced herbivores, kangaroos and rainfall. Our surveys showed that N. fuscus was more abundant where dingoes occurred. Generalised linear modelling showed that N. fuscus abundance was associated positively with dingo activity and long-term annual rainfall and negatively with red fox Vulpes vulpes activity. Our results were consistent with the hypothesis that areas with higher rainfall and dingoes provide N. fuscus with refuge from drought and predation by invasive red foxes, respectively. Top-order predators, such as dingoes, could have an important functional role in broad-scale biodiversity conservation programmes by reducing the impacts of mesopredators.     

Complex interactions among mammalian carnivores in Australia, and their implications for wildlife management

Mammalian carnivore populations are often intensively managed, either because the carnivore in question is endangered, or because it is viewed as a pest and is subjected to control measures, or both. Most management programmes treat carnivore species in isolation. However, there is a large and emerging body of evidence to demonstrate that populations of different carnivores interact with each other in a variety of complex ways. Thus, the removal or introduction of predators to or from a system can often affect other species in ways that are difficult to predict. Wildlife managers must consider such interactions when planning predator control programmes. Integrated predator control will require a greater understanding of the complex relationships between species. In many parts of the world, sympatric species of carnivores have coexisted over an evolutionary time scale so that niche differentiation has occurred, and competition is difficult to observe. Australia has experienced numerous introductions during the past 200 years, including those of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and the feral cat (Felis catus). These species now exist in sympatry with native mammalian predators, providing ecologists with the opportunity to study their interactions without the confounding effects of coevolution. Despite an increasing body of observational evidence for complex interactions among native and introduced predators in Australia, few studies have attempted to clarify these relationships experimentally, and the interactions remain largely unacknowledged. A greater understanding of these interactions would provide ecologists and wildlife managers world-wide with the ability to construct robust predictive models of carnivore communities, and to identify their broader effects on ecosystem functioning. We suggest that future research should focus on controlled and replicated predator removal or addition experiments. The dingo (Canis lupus dingo), as a likely keystone species, should be a particular focus of attention.     

Genetic marker investigation of the source and impact of predation on a highly endangered species

In September and October 2000, the remains of a number of apparently predated northern hairy-nosed wombats (Lasiorhinus krefftii) were discovered in Epping Forest National Park, the site of the only known population of this highly endangered species. Analysis of DNA recovered from six carcasses and a section of intestine found nearby was carried out using microsatellite and Y-specific primers. This identified seven individual wombats, the identity of three of which was inferred from a genotype database prepared from animals sampled during trapping programmes. Six victims were male and one female, suggesting that female-biased predation rates are unlikely to be the cause of the current male-biased population sex ratio. DNA isolated from four canid faeces found in the vicinity revealed three distinct canid microsatellite genotypes with very high probabilities of belonging to dingoes (Canis familiaris dingo). A wombat genotype matching that of one of the dead individuals was identified from scats of two of the dingoes. In addition, two macropod microsatellites were amplified from two dingo scats. These observations provided vital information regarding predation on northern hairy-nosed wombats, and prompted the permanent exclusion of dingoes from the park by the erection of a dingo-proof fence.     

Does a top predator reduce the predatory impact of an invasive mesopredator on an endangered rodent?

The mesopredator release hypothesis (MRH) predicts that reduced abundance of top‐order predators results in an increase in the abundance of smaller predators (mesopredators) due to a reduction in intra‐guild predation and competition. The irruption of mesopredators that follows the removal of top‐order predators can have detrimental impacts on the prey of the mesopredators. Here we investigated the mechanisms via which the presence of a top‐order predator can benefit prey species. We tested predictions made according to the MRH and foraging theory by contrasting the abundances of an invasive mesopredator (red fox Vulpes vulpes) and an endangered prey species (dusky hopping mouse Notomys fuscus), predator diets, and N. fuscus foraging behaviour in the presence and absence of a top‐predator (dingo Canis lupus dingo). As predicted by the MRH, foxes were more abundant where dingoes were absent. Dietary overlap between sympatric dingoes and foxes was extensive, and fox was recorded in 1 dingo scat possibly indicating intra‐guild predation. Notomys fuscus were more likely to occur in fox scats than dingo scats and as predicted by the MRH N. fuscus were less abundant in the absence of dingoes. The population increase of N. fuscus following rainfall was dampened in the absence of dingoes suggesting that mesopredator release can attenuate bottom‐up effects, although it remains conceivable that differences in grazing regimes associated with dingo exclusion could have also influenced N. fuscus abundance. Notomys fuscus exhibited lower giving‐up densities in the presence of dingoes, consistent with the prediction that their perceived risk of predation would be lower and foraging efficiency greater in the presence of a top‐predator. Our results suggest that mesopredator suppression by a top predator can create a safer environment for prey species where the frequency of fatal encounters between predators and prey is reduced and the non‐consumptive effects of predators are lower.     

Keystone effects of an alien top-predator stem extinctions of native mammals

Alien predators can have catastrophic effects on ecosystems and are thought to be much more harmful to biodiversity than their native counterparts. However, trophic cascade theory and the mesopredator release hypothesis predict that the removal of top predators will result in the reorganization of trophic webs and loss of biodiversity. Using field data collected throughout arid Australia, we provide evidence that removal of an alien top-predator, the dingo, has cascading effects through lower trophic levels. Dingo removal was linked to increased activity of herbivores and an invasive mesopredator, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), and to the loss of grass cover and native species of small mammals. Using species distribution data, we predict that reintroducing or maintaining dingo populations would produce a net benefit for the conservation of threatened native mammals across greater than 2.42 × 10⁶ km² of Australia. Our study provides evidence that an alien top predator can assume a keystone role and be beneficial for biodiversity conservation, and also that mammalian carnivores more generally can generate strong trophic cascades in terrestrial ecosystems.     

Computer simulation of feeding behaviour in the thylacine and dingo as a novel test for convergence and niche overlap

The extinct marsupial thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus) and placental grey wolf (Canis lupus) are commonly presented as an iconic example of convergence. However, various analyses suggest distinctly different behaviours and specialization towards either relatively small or large prey in the thylacine, bringing the degree of apparent convergence into question. Here we apply a powerful engineering tool, three-dimensional finite element analysis incorporating multiple material properties for bone, to examine mechanical similarity and niche overlap in the thylacine and the wolf subspecies implicated in its extinction from mainland Australia, Canis lupus dingo. Comparisons of stress distributions not only reveal considerable similarity, but also informative differences. The thylacine's mandible performs relatively poorly where only the actions of the jaw muscles are considered, although this must be considered in the light of relatively high bite forces. Stresses are high in the posterior of the thylacine's cranium under loads that simulate struggling prey. We conclude that relative prey size may have been comparable where both species acted as solitary predators, but that the dingo is better adapted to withstand the high extrinsic loads likely to accompany social hunting of relatively large prey. It is probable that there was considerable ecological overlap. As a large mammalian hypercarnivore adapted to taking small-medium sized prey, the thylacine may have been particularly vulnerable to disturbance.     

Not all predators are equal: a continent‐scale analysis of the effects of predator control on Australian mammals

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Prey use by dingoes in a contested landscape: Ecosystem service provider or biodiversity threat?

In Australia, dingoes (Canis lupus dingo) have been implicated in the decline and extinction of a number of vertebrate species. The lowland Wet Tropics of Queensland, Australia is a biologically rich area with many species of rainforest‐restricted vertebrates that could be threatened by dingoes; however, the ecological impacts of dingoes in this region are poorly understood. We determined the potential threat posed by dingoes to native vertebrates in the lowland Wet Tropics using dingo scat/stomach content and stable isotope analyses of hair from dingoes and potential prey species. Common mammals dominated dingo diets. We found no evidence of predation on threatened taxa or rainforest specialists within our study areas. The most significant prey species were northern brown bandicoots (Isoodon macrourus), canefield rats (Rattus sordidus), and agile wallabies (Macropus agilis). All are common species associated with relatively open grass/woodland habitats. Stable isotope analysis suggested that prey species sourced their nutrients primarily from open habitats and that prey choice, as identified by scat/stomach analysis alone, was a poor indicator of primary foraging habitats. In general, we find that prey use by dingoes in the lowland Wet Tropics does not pose a major threat to native and/or threatened fauna, including rainforest specialists. In fact, our results suggest that dingo predation on “pest” species may represent an important ecological service that outweighs potential biodiversity threats. A more targeted approach to managing wild canids is needed if the ecosystem services they provide in these contested landscapes are to be maintained, while simultaneously avoiding negative conservation or economic impacts.     

Temporal and spatial trends in the abundances of an apex predator,introduced mesopredator and ground-nesting bird are consistent with the mesopredator release hypothesis

Apex predator extirpation has been identified as a key driver of biodiversity losses. The mesopredator release hypothesis (MRH) predicts that reduced abundance of apex predators results in an increase in the abundance and predatory impact of mesopredators. Here we test predictions made according to the MRH that an apex predator, the dingo (Canis dingo), benefits a small ground-nesting bird, the little button-quail (Turnix velox), by reducing the abundance of introduced mesopredators, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cat (Felis catus). We also examined an alternative hypothesis that herbivore grazing negatively affects little button-quail abundance by reducing ground cover. To test our predictions we compared dingo, mesopredator, quail, herbivore and ground cover abundances and predator diets over a 25 month period and across a 10,000 km² region encompassing areas where dingoes were common and rare, pastoral properties, and conservation reserves. Little button-quails were primarily observed where dingoes were common and foxes rare. Cats were detected at low numbers throughout the sample area irrespective of the index abundance of little button-quails, dingoes or foxes. Birds occurred less frequently in dingo than fox or cat scats. Ground cover and herbivore grazing activity were poor correlates of little button-quail abundance. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that apex predators’ mesopredator-suppressive effects translate to population-level benefits for a ground-nesting bird. Positive associations between the abundances of dingoes and small-prey species suggests that positive management of dingoes could be incorporated into broad-scale biodiversity conservation programs as a strategy to alleviate the predatory impacts of foxes.     

Could a rabies incursion spread in the northern Australian dingo population? Development of a spatial stochastic simulation model

Australia, home to the iconic dingo, is currently free from canine rabies. However northern Australia, including Indigenous communities with large free-roaming domestic dog populations, is at increased risk of rabies incursion from nearby Indonesia. We developed a novel agent-based stochastic spatial rabies spread model to evaluate the potential spread of rabies within the dingo population of the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA) region of northern Australia. The model incorporated spatio-temporal features specific to this host-environment system, including landscape heterogeneity, demographic fluctuations, dispersal movements and dingo ecological parameters—such as home range size and density—derived from NPA field studies. Rabies spread between dingo packs in nearly 60% of simulations. In such situations rabies would affect a median of 22 dingoes (approximately 14% of the population; 2.5–97.5 percentiles: 2–101 dingoes) within the study area which covered 1,131 km², and spread 0.52 km/week for 191 days. Larger outbreaks occurred in scenarios in which an incursion was introduced during the dry season (vs. wet season), and close to communities (vs. areas with high risk of interaction between dingoes and hunting community dogs). Sensitivity analyses revealed that home range size and duration of infectious clinical period contributed most to the variance of outputs. Although conditions in the NPA would most likely not support a sustained propagation of the disease in the dingo population, due to the predicted number of infected dingoes following a rabies incursion and the proximity of Indigenous communities to dingo habitat, we conclude that the risk for human transmission could be substantial.