生态风险评价方法述评

生态风险是由环境的自然变化或人类活动引起的生态系统组成、结构的改变而导致系统功能损失的可能性。生态风险评价是定量预测各种风险源对生态系统产生风险的或然性以及评估该风险可接受程度的方法体系,因而是生态环境风险管理与决策的定量依据。在介绍了生态风险概念的基础上,按照风险源性质的分类标准将生态风险划分为化学污染类风险源、生态事件类风险源、复合类风险源3类,并分别论述了3类生态风险对应评价方法的特点与发展的方向。另外,针对生态风险评价研究的现状,讨论了我国生态风险研究的优先领域,包括建立急性、慢性毒理数据库,构建外来生物入侵风险评价标准等,同时,建议将综合概率统计学、复杂系统理论与遥感技术等手段引入生态风险评价方法中,以进一步提高风险评价结果在生态风险管理中的有效性。     

生态风险评价研究进展

20多年来,生态风险评价研究经历了从环境风险到生态风险到区域生态风险评价的发展历程,风险源由单一风险源扩展到多风险源,风险受体由单一受体发展到多受体,评价范围由局地扩展到区域景观水平.区域生态风险评价就是大尺度上研究复杂环境背景下包含多风险源、多风险受体的综合风险研究.目前,区域生态风险评价的理论框架已经搭建起来,统计方法多采用相对评价法.区域生态风险评价未来的发展方向为继续加强实验和野外调查,进一步减小不确定性,逐步解决尺度推移问题.区域生态风险评价必须与经济、社会、文化相结合,才能充分发挥它在管理决策中的作用.     

生态足迹分析应用于区域可持续发展生态评估的缺陷

可持续发展的生态评估是当前国际生态经济学与可持续发展研究的前沿问题之一,生态足迹从生物生产的角度可以定量评估一个国家或地区发展的生态持续性程度,是近年来发展迅速的一种生物物理量衡量方法。尽管生态足迹分析具有指标指示意义明确、评估结果全球可比与模型方法简便、资料易获取、可操作性强等优点,但在理论方法上仍存在不足之处。综合国内外区域生态足迹分析的最新进展,生态足迹分析应用于区域可持续发展生态评估的理论缺陷主要表现为以下6点：①弱可持续性评价,难以完整反映系统的可持续性状态;②静态模型,缺乏预测功能;③长时间序列生态足迹研究的合理性有待商榷;④全球平均生产力的相对性,导致评估结果的非绝对性;⑤过于强调土地的数量,而忽略土地的质量;⑥假定各类生物生产性土地类型的空间互斥性,忽视兼业性。     

基于生态系统服务的生态风险评价研究进展

生态风险评价对科学管理与保护生态系统具有重要的意义,为弥补传统生态风险评价方法的不足和提高风险管理的效率,将生态系统服务引入生态风险评价中进行发展和完善,成为了当前生态风险评价研究的前沿和热点。系统分析了生态系统服务在生态风险评价中的应用,指出生态系统服务在问题形成阶段中可明确保护对象和属性,在风险分析阶段可联系生态系统结构过程作用,在风险表征阶段及后续阶段能可提供清晰明确的评价结果,加强风险交流和管理,能有效地改进生态系统传统生态风险评价。在实践上,基于生态系统服务的生态风险评价可从3个不同层面开展:一是针对外界压力对某类特定功能或者系统中某些服务功能的影响,构建基于某种特定服务的实体属性评价方法;二是针对外界压力作用下生态系统结构与过程变化下对功能影响,构建基于复杂生态系统作用的评价方法,实现对生态风险的模拟评价;三是评价社会生态系统下外界驱动对人类福祉的影响时,可将DPSIR(Drive-Pressure-State-Impact-Response)理论模型运用到生态风险管理中,也可基于景观生态系统服务与压力源的空间作用关系,实现社会生态系统风险评价与管理。作为生态风险表征手段,可基于生态系统服务损失与不利服务进行表征,也可选取热力学等指标作为评估量纲。从理论、评价方法、风险管理等方面对基于生态系统服务生态风险评价给予展望。     

外来植物的入侵机制及其生态风险评价

外来植物入侵已成为严重威胁生态系统健康发展的全球性问题,预防优于治理,对外来植物进行生态风险评价可有效地防御和降低入侵风险。本文基于生态风险评价理论,通过对外来植物入侵特性和过程的分析,探讨了外来植物入侵生态风险的评价方法。将评价程序分为风险源分析、风险受体评价、暴露与危害评价、风险综合评价和风险管理对策5部分,初步建立了风险源评价指标体系,以及度量生态损失和生态风险的指标和公式,进而得出外来植物入侵综合生态风险评价的方法。     

生态资产评估的若干问题探讨

生态资产评估是构建和谐社会与落实科学发展观的重要组成部分.本文结合生态资产评估的研究成果,重新审视了生态资产概念和研究范畴,概括了生态资产评估内容,认为生态系统质量、生态系统压力和生态资产价值量3项内容可以作为生态资产评估的着眼点.以森林生态资产评估为例给出了参考性指标和计算模型.最后提出了今后的研究方向.     

北京市域生态敏感性综合评价

区域生态敏感性评价对于制定区域环境政策,有效进行环境管理具有重要作用.在综述当前生态敏感性评价研究的基础上,综合考虑自然和人文两大类影响因子,构建了反映对水土流失、河流水量水质、土地沙化、泥石流、采矿、路网、濒危物种不同敏感程度的7个指标,运用地理信息系统和遥感技术,综合分析和评价了北京市域生态敏感性程度及其空间分布状况.结果表明,高生态敏感区主要有两类,分别分布于北京东北-西南走向的山区-平原过渡地带和永定河、潮白河、北运河、大石河河岸带,此外,大兴南部也有集中分布.中敏感区除分布于上述高敏感区外围以外,还集中分布于怀柔中部的红螺山、云蒙山地区和门头沟妙峰山地区.不敏感区则主要集中在怀柔、延庆的北部山区,其余地区为低敏感区.敏感性程度的空间变化基本规律是:在山区,从平原-山区过渡地带沿西北方向朝低山区和中山区衰减,在平原,则沿河道两侧向外围衰减.在评价的基础上,尝试提出了环境保育和生态建设的相关对策.     

污染物环境生态效应评价研究进展

总结了污染物环境生态效应评价的关键环节--生态受体选择、反应终点和评价参数确定等研究现状,分析讨论了这些环节目前存在的问题和今后的研究方向.个体和种群层次上的生态受体研究较为深入,相应的反应终点研究也较为成熟,但群落和系统层次上的生态受体研究较少,相应的反应终点还不能完整的表征其结构与功能发生的变化.应用能够完整反映生态系统功能及结构组织状态的反应终点,以生态系统为受体进行污染物环境生态效应评价是今后的研究方向.基于假设检验的NOEC只是一个实验设计浓度,不能构造置信区间;ECx由不同的数学模型计算的结果差异较大,置信区间随效应值x的降低而增大.研究综合假设检验与数学模型各自优点的评价参数估算方法是污染物环境生态效应评价的重要研究内容.     

湿地生态环境影响评价初步探讨

探讨了湿地生态环境影响评价的理论框架 ,指出由于湿地生态环境的特殊性 ,应将非污染型生态环境影响评价放到重要位置。应重视工程项目对湿地水文条件、植物区系、动物种群改变以及移民和诱导开发的影响分析。从湿地分类开始 ,以湿地功能为核心建立评价指标体系 ,把湿地潜在的生态环境效益和工程项目可能产生影响有机结合在一起 ,评价建设项目的急性和慢性影响 ,提出减缓影响的措施和替代方案。着眼于维持现存的生态过程和自然系统 ,保护湿地的生态效益和功能 ,为湿地可持续利用服务     

Biodiversity assessment in ecological restoration above the timberline

Ecological restoration trials in high-alpine sites require sampling of indigenous plant populations. This problem is discussed briefly in relation to initial genetic diversity in the restoration material. The further part of the paper deals with restoration trials in the Swiss Alps and their assessment.The plots, set in machine-graded downhill ski runs, were revegetated with transplants of alpine species used in various combinations. Safe-site conditions were simulated with biodegradable wood-fibre mats. Surveys carried out in plots aged four to seven years focused on plant species inventory and age-state structure of mixed stands. The alpha diversity assessment included speices number and the associated aspects. The consistent increase in species number, the number of plant families represented, and range of life-forms was apparently independent of the restoration timing. The age-state structure of the mixed stands was characterized by a considerable increase in the range of age-state classes and, in particular, a regular appearance of younger variants. These changes clearly indicate development of self-sustaining plant communities influenced by reproduction of the transplants and extensive immigration. It is proposed that age-state structure be called delta diversity and included in a routine assessment of post-restoration status of both single plant populations and mixed stands.     

露天煤矿区生态风险评价方法

以露天煤矿区这一脆弱生态系统为对象进行了生态风险评价方法的探讨 ,阐述了生态风险评价的基本概念。针对露天矿区生态环境特点 ,通过描述露天矿区的主要生态环境问题 ,分析了矿区风险源、风险受体以及评价终点 ,最后建立了典型露天煤矿区生态风险的评价指标体系 ,对露天矿区这一典型退化生态系统进行了生态风险评价方法及评价步骤的探索     

洞庭湖流域区域生态风险评价

对于生态系统 ,灾害性事件的产生多为外界胁迫因素与系统内部生态结构不稳定性因素共同作用的结果 ,因此对流域生态风险进行评价时应充分考虑系统内部的生态结构与外界的胁迫性因素。目前国内外对于外界胁迫性因素的研究多集中在自然灾害 (如洪涝灾害 )以及外界污染物主要集中在重金属类的排入 ,而事实上 ,其他类型的污染物 ,如氮、磷等也将对生态系统产生一定的危害 ,由于这些污染物浓度在个别地区超标程度较高并可能对受体产生巨大的影响 ,因此将该类污染物作为一类重要因素纳入生态风险评价体系中是非常必要的 ,而由此得出的评价结果也更为系统和全面。以洞庭湖地区的东、南、西三部分作为研究区域 ,根据其特殊的背景 ,将工业污染、农业污染及血防污染作为其污染类风险源 ,引入由氮毒性污染指数、磷毒性污染指数、重金属类毒性污染指数共同构成的毒性污染指数与自然灾害指数和系统本身的生态指数 ,包括生物指数、多样性指数、物种重要性指数以及脆弱性指数完成了对洞庭湖流域的区域生态风险评价。     

A therapeutic application of the experience sampling method in the treatment of depression: a randomized controlled trial

In depression, the ability to experience daily life positive affect predicts recovery and reduces relapse rates. Interventions based on the experience sampling method (ESM-I) are ideally suited to provide insight in personal, contextualized patterns of positive affect. The aim of this study was to examine whether add-on ESM-derived feedback on personalized patterns of positive affect is feasible and useful to patients, and results in a reduction of depressive symptomatology. Depressed outpatients (n=102) receiving pharmacological treatment participated in a randomized controlled trial with three arms: an experimental group receiving add-on ESM-derived feedback, a pseudo-experimental group participating in ESM but receiving no feedback, and a control group. The experimental group participated in an ESM procedure (three days per week over a 6-week period) using a palmtop. This group received weekly standardized feedback on personalized patterns of positive affect. Hamilton Depression Rating Scale – 17 (HDRS) and Inventory of Depressive Symptoms (IDS) scores were obtained before and after the intervention. During a 6-month follow-up period, five HDRS and IDS assessments were completed. Add-on ESM-derived feedback resulted in a significant and clinically relevant stronger decrease in HDRS score relative to the control group (p<0.01; −5.5 point reduction in HDRS at 6 months). Compared to the pseudo-experimental group, a clinically relevant decrease in HDRS score was apparent at 6 months (B=−3.6, p=0.053). Self-reported depressive complaints (IDS) yielded the same pattern over time. The use of ESM-I was deemed acceptable and the provided feedback easy to understand. Patients attempted to apply suggestions from ESM-derived feedback to daily life. These data suggest that the efficacy of traditional passive pharmacological approach to treatment of major depression can be enhanced by using person-tailored daily life information regarding positive affect.     

Overview: The future of ecological risk assessment

Risk assessment has become a popular tool to help solve ecological problems. The basic concept is not new and has been applied to diverse decision problems. The application to ecological problems, especially complex ecological problems, is fairly recent and controversial. The fundamental and most important elements of the controversy revolve around two key points: (1) a person's implicit “world view;”; and (2) the assumption of who (or what) receives the benefits and who (or what) pays the costs for ecological “decisions.”; A person's attitude toward risk assessment is, at least implicitly, defined by a world view. It is this world view that defines how each of us reacts to risk assessment applied to ecological problems. How the question of benefits and costs is defined also defines the appropriate use, if any, of ecological risk assessment. The future of ecological risk assessment will almost certainly follow the course of other analytical tools: enthusiastic support, rapid, widespread adoption and use; then disillusionment and rapid replacement with newer approaches, but with continued use for a greatly constrained set of ecological issues.     

关于生态文明建设与评价的理论思考

基于近代人类社会发展的主线,本文认为生态文明是指具有保持和改善生态系统服务,并能够为民众提供可持续福利的文明形态.进一步可以认为,生态文明是指能够实现可持续发展的文明形态.基于这样的理解,本文阐述了生态文明的内涵,分析了生态文明建设的内容,建立了生态文明建设的基本评价框架和趋善化模型评价框架,探讨了生态文明建设的保障体系.     

Quandaries and complexities of ecological risk assessment: Viable options to reduce humanistic arrogance

Ecological risk assessment has been used to support decisions regarding human‐generated actions which affect natural “resources”; and indigenous ecosystems. Often, the logical and scientific input serve as rationalization to legitimize the process. Though widely accepted as the realistic and sole paradigm, Ecological Risk Assessments do not address the complexities of the natural world, are humanistically arrogant, and disregard or do not consider alternatives which offer imagination and realistic attempts to reduce human impact to the land.

Ecological Alternatives Assessment practices would place the highest priority on: (a) continued temporal and spatial evolution of existing complex ecological relationships, (b) acknowledgment of the inherent rights of all species, and (c) examination of alternatives to reduce effects of anthropogenic actions. These steps, as discussed, are not impossible to accomplish and are necessary for favorable short‐term (50–500 years) anthropocentric alternatives and maintenance of long‐term (+1,000 years) biodiversity of species and ecosystems.