Seasonality of retinal detachment incidence and its associations with climate: an 11-year nationwide population-based study

This study aimed to examine the seasonal variability of retinal detachment (RD) in Taiwan by using an 11-yr nationwide population database. This study also investigated the association of weather conditions, i.e., ambient temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, monthly hours of sunshine, and atmospheric pressure, with RD. Data were retrospectively collected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The study sample included 23 718 RD hospitalizations between January 1999 and December 2009. The incidence rate of RD/100 000 people over the 132 months was computed according to sex and age groupings of <20, 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60 yrs. Then, the association between climatic factors and the monthly RD incidence rate was examined. The ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) method was also employed to test the seasonality of RD incidence rates and their association with climatic factors. The annual RD incidence rates were between 7.8 and 10.8 cases/100 000 people during the study period. A fairly similar seasonal pattern of monthly RD incidence rates was apparent for males and females and males and females combined. Rates were highest August through October, decreasing in November, and lowest in February. After adjusting for time, trend, and month, the ARIMA regression models for the male, female, and males and females combined consistently revealed the monthly RD incidence rate was significantly and positively associated with ambient temperature, but negatively associated with atmospheric pressure. The authors conclude that the monthly RD incidence rates were significantly associated with seasonality. The monthly RD incidence rates were positively associated with ambient temperature and negatively associated with atmospheric pressure.     

Seasonality of Retinal Detachment Incidence and Its Associations With Climate: An 11-Year Nationwide Population-Based Study

This study aimed to examine the seasonal variability of retinal detachment (RD) in Taiwan by using an 11-yr nationwide population database. This study also investigated the association of weather conditions, i.e., ambient temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, monthly hours of sunshine, and atmospheric pressure, with RD. Data were retrospectively collected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The study sample included 23 718 RD hospitalizations between January 1999 and December 2009. The incidence rate of RD/100 000 people over the 132 months was computed according to sex and age groupings of <20, 20–39, 40–59, and ≥60 yrs. Then, the association between climatic factors and the monthly RD incidence rate was examined. The ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) method was also employed to test the seasonality of RD incidence rates and their association with climatic factors. The annual RD incidence rates were between 7.8 and 10.8 cases/100 000 people during the study period. A fairly similar seasonal pattern of monthly RD incidence rates was apparent for males and females and males and females combined. Rates were highest August through October, decreasing in November, and lowest in February. After adjusting for time, trend, and month, the ARIMA regression models for the male, female, and males and females combined consistently revealed the monthly RD incidence rate was significantly and positively associated with ambient temperature, but negatively associated with atmospheric pressure. The authors conclude that the monthly RD incidence rates were significantly associated with seasonality. The monthly RD incidence rates were positively associated with ambient temperature and negatively associated with atmospheric pressure. (Author correspondence: henry11111@tmu.edu.tw)     

Weekly pattern of stroke onset in an Asian country: a nationwide population-based study

This study used a nationwide population-based dataset to explore the variation among the days of week of stroke onset within population subgroups defined by age, sex, and stroke type. We used ambulatory care data from the 2002 Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, focusing on 42,779 emergency room (ER) visits for stroke that year. All analyses were stratified by sex, age (<60 and > or =60 yrs), and type of stroke. Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) was performed to investigate the relationship between daily number of stroke events and holidays and days of the week after adjusting for the effects of seasonality and trends. One-way ANOVA revealed significant differences in stroke ER admissions according to day of week according to age <60 (p<0.01), age > or =60 (p<0.001), male (p<0.001), female (p<0.001), ischemic stroke (IS) (p<0.001), and unspecified stroke (UNSP) (p<0.001). However, the analysis by type-subarachnoid hemorrhage and intracerebral hemorrhage-did not show significant relationships between daily emergency room stroke admissions, holidays, or day of the week. The ARIMA regression analyses also showed that Mondays had the highest rate of emergency room admissions for stroke regardless of sex, age, or IS and UNSP types of stroke, after adjusting for seasonality and trends. We conclude that stroke occurs more frequently on Mondays than on the other days of the week, which might be associated with short-term changes in lifestyle or due to the sudden return of stress on the first working day of the week, and on holidays.     

Weekly Pattern of Stroke Onset in an Asian Country: A Nationwide Population‐Based Study

This study used a nationwide population‐based dataset to explore the variation among the days of week of stroke onset within population subgroups defined by age, sex, and stroke type. We used ambulatory care data from the 2002 Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, focusing on 42,779 emergency room (ER) visits for stroke that year. All analyses were stratified by sex, age (<60 and ≥60 yrs), and type of stroke. Auto‐Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) was performed to investigate the relationship between daily number of stroke events and holidays and days of the week after adjusting for the effects of seasonality and trends. One‐way ANOVA revealed significant differences in stroke ER admissions according to day of week according to age <60 (p<0.01), age ≥60 (p<0.001), male (p<0.001), female (p<0.001), ischemic stroke (IS) (p<0.001), and unspecified stroke (UNSP) (p<0.001). However, the analysis by type—subarachnoid hemorrhage and intracerebral hemorrhage—did not show significant relationships between daily emergency room stroke admissions, holidays, or day of the week. The ARIMA regression analyses also showed that Mondays had the highest rate of emergency room admissions for stroke regardless of sex, age, or IS and UNSP types of stroke, after adjusting for seasonality and trends. We conclude that stroke occurs more frequently on Mondays than on the other days of the week, which might be associated with short‐term changes in lifestyle or due to the sudden return of stress on the first working day of the week, and on holidays.     

Seasonal Variation in Ischemic Stroke Incidence and Association with Climate: A Six‐Year Population‐Based Study

Questions about the seasonality of stroke remain controversial. Using a nationwide population‐based dataset, this study presents a time series analysis of seasonal patterns in ischemic stroke occurrence, along with their association with climate in Taiwan. Using data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, a total of 168,977 visits to emergency departments between 1998 and 2003 for ischemic stroke were identified for patients ranging between 20 and 84 yrs of age. Monthly stroke incidences were calculated for 72 months, by sex and stroke subtype, and for the age groups 20–54, 55–64, 65–74, and ≥75 yrs per 100,000 of the population. We performed auto‐regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analysis to investigate the presence of seasonality and any association with climate for acute ischemic stroke events. We found no significant seasonal variation in the incidence of ischemic stroke for any age or sex groups. Furthermore, after adjusting for seasonality, month, and trend, the ARIMA regression model revealed only associations between ischemic stroke incidence and atmospheric pressure. We conclude that seasonality of ischemic stroke does not exist in Taiwan. Ischemic stroke incidence is, however, significantly related to atmospheric pressure.     

Effects of Age,Sex, Index Admission,and Predominant Polarity on the Seasonality of Acute Admissions For Bipolar Disorder: A Population-Based Study

Bipolar disorder seasonality has been documented previously, though information on the effect of demographic and clinical variables on seasonal patterns is scant. This study examined effects of age, sex, index admission, and predominant polarity on bipolar disorder seasonality in a nationwide population. An inpatient cohort admitted to hospital exclusively for mental illness was derived from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database for 2002–2007. The authors identified 9619 inpatients with bipolar disorder, who had generated 15 078 acute admission records. An empirical mode decomposition method was used to identify seasonal oscillations in bipolar admission data, and regression and cross-correlation analyses were used to quantify the degree and timing of bipolar admission seasonality. Results for seasonality timing found that manic or mixed episodes peak in spring or summer, and depressive episodes peak in winter. Analysis for degree of seasonality revealed that (1) the polarity of patients' index admission predicted the seasonality of relapse admissions; (2) seasonality was significant in female admissions for depressive episodes and in male admissions for manic episodes; (3) young adults displayed a higher degree of seasonality for acute admissions than middle-aged adults; and (4) patients with predominantly depressive admissions displayed a higher degree of seasonality than patients with predominantly manic admissions. Demographic and clinical variables were found to affect the seasonality of acute admissions for bipolar disorders. These findings highlight the need for research on identification and management of seasonal features in bipolar patients. (Author correspondence: ccyang@physionet.org)     

Poor Growth and Pneumonia Seasonality in Infants in the Philippines: Cohort and Time Series Studies

Children with poor nutrition are at increased risk of pneumonia. In many tropical settings seasonal pneumonia epidemics occur during the rainy season, which is often a period of poor nutrition. We have investigated whether seasonal hunger may be a driver of seasonal pneumonia epidemics in children in the tropical setting of the Philippines. In individual level cohort analysis, infant size and growth were both associated with increased pneumonia admissions, consistent with findings from previous studies. A low weight for age z-score in early infancy was associated with an increased risk of pneumonia admission over the following 12 months (RR for infants in the lowest quartile of weight for age z-scores 1.28 [95% CI 1.08 to 1.51]). Poor growth in smaller than average infants was also associated with an increased risk of pneumonia (RR for those in the lowest quartile of growth in early infancy 1.31 [95%CI 1.02 to 1.68]). At a population level, we found that seasonal undernutrition preceded the seasonal increase in pneumonia and respiratory syncytial virus admissions by approximately 10 weeks (pairwise correlation at this lag was −0.41 [95%CI −0.53 to −0.27] for pneumonia admissions, and −0.63 [95%CI −0.72 to −0.51] for respiratory syncytial virus admissions). This lag appears biologically plausible. These results suggest that in addition to being an individual level risk factor for pneumonia, poor nutrition may act as a population level driver of seasonal pneumonia epidemics in the tropics. Further investigation of the seasonal level association, in particular the estimation of the expected lag between seasonal undernutrition and increased pneumonia incidence, is recommended.     

Seasonal variation in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage in northern Israel

The incidence of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) and ischemic stroke vary across seasons. Most studies examining seasonal variation in sICH have been conducted in countries with significant climatic changes across seasons, whereas studies from the Mediterranean region, which has a relatively mild winter, are limited in number and have produced inconsistent results. Further studies from the region are called for, especially from countries where sICH seasonality has not yet been explored. A total of 974 patients with sICH between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2014 were included in this study. The seasonal, monthly and weekday distribution of hospital admissions, in-hospital mortality, length of hospital stay and functional outcome at discharge were examined. We found that most hospital admissions due to sICH occurred in the winter (n = 286, 29%), whereas the fewest admissions occurred in the summer (n = 205, 21%; p = 0.0011). In terms of monthly distribution, most admissions were in January (n = 107, 11%), and the fewest admissions were in September (n = 60, 6%; p = 0.0004). There were no differences in the distribution of sICH between weekdays and weekends. Also, we found no significant weekday or seasonal variations in in-hospital mortality or functional outcome of sICH. Our results suggest that temporal patterns impact the natural course of sICH in northern Israel. The identification of factors, including biological ones, responsible for seasonal variation in regions with mild seasonal changes requires further research but could aid in the design of strategies for preventing sICH.     

Morningness-eveningness and seasonality

The study aimed to elucidate previously observed associations between morningness–eveningness and seasonality by analysing their distinct aspects separately: morning affect (MA) and time-of-day preference, different seasonal types and patterns (winter, summer, etc.), the degree of seasonality and perceived negative impact of seasonality. Students from Warsaw (N = 522) completed the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire and the Composite Scale of Morningness. Winter seasonality was related to lower MA, but unrelated to time-of-day preference. Global seasonality score was negatively associated with MA in winter seasonality, but not in other seasonality patterns, and unrelated to time-of-day preference. These associations remained significant after controlling for sex, age and season of assessment. It is concluded that winter seasonality is related to low MA, but not to time-of-day preference. The above results indicate that MA can be considered as an all year round indicator of proneness to winter seasonality and eventually to seasonal affective disorder. The results also suggest that MA and time-of-day preference should be analysed separately in future research on morningness–eveningness.     

Time series analysis of the epidemiological transition in Minorca, 1634-1997

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models provide a powerful tool for detecting seasonal patterns in mortality statistics. The strength of ARIMA models lies in their ability to reveal complex structures of temporal interdependence in time series. Moreover, changes in model parameters provide an empirical basis for detecting secular trends and death seasonality patterns. This approach is illustrated by our analysis of changes in the mortality patterns of the population of the town of Es Mercadal on the island of Minorca between 1634 and 1997. These data reveal a transition from an early mortality pattern requiring a complex ARIMA model that accounts for a strong seasonal death pattern and periodic epidemic-related mortality crises to a much simpler 20th-century pattern that can be described by a simple single-parameter ARIMA model. These same data were also analyzed using standard seasonality tests. The results show that the reduction in the number of parameters required to fit the Es Mercadal mortality data coincides with the epidemiological transition in which the predominant causes of morbidly and mortality shift from infectious to degenerative causes.     

Winter and summer upwelling modes and their biological importance in the California Current Ecosystem

Analysis of monthly coastal upwelling intensities revealed two seasonal and biologically relevant upwelling ‘modes’ in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). The first mode reflected upwelling during the summer months and was characterized by low‐frequency (multidecadal) processes, including significant (P<0.01) linear trends at some latitudes. In contrast, the second mode reflected wintertime upwelling and was defined by higher‐frequency variability associated with the North Pacific High and El Niño Southern Oscillation events. These modes were compared with multidecadal time series of splitnose rockfish (Sebastes diploproa) otolith growth, yelloweye rockfish (S. ruberrimus) otolith growth, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) scale growth, and indices of Cassin's auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) and common murre (Uria aalge) reproduction in the central‐northern CCE. In redundancy and correlation analyses, salmon growth and Cassin's auklet fledgling success associated with the summer upwelling mode while all other time series associated with the winter upwelling mode, indicating that CCE biology was differentially sensitive to these seasonal upwelling patterns. Thus, upwelling occurred in unrelated seasonal modes with contrasting trends, atmospheric forcing mechanisms, and impacts on the biology of the CCE, underscoring the importance of seasonality when evaluating ecosystem response to climate variability and change.     

Leaf age affects the seasonal pattern of photosynthetic capacityand net ecosystem exchange of carbon in a deciduous forest

Temporal trends in photosynthetic capacity are a critical factorin determining the seasonality and magnitude of ecosystem carbonfluxes. At a mixed deciduous forest in the south‐eastern United States (Walker Branch Watershed, Oak Ridge, TN, USA), we independently measured seasonal trends in photosynthetic capacity (using single‐leaf gas exchange techniques) and the whole‐canopycarbon flux (using the eddy covariance method). Soil respiration was also measured using chambers and an eddy covariance system beneath the canopy. These independent chamber and eddy covariance measurements, along with a biophysical model (CANOAK), areused to examine how leaf age affects the seasonal pattern of carbon uptake during the growing season. When the measured seasonality in photosynthetic capacity is representedin the CANOAK simulations, there is good agreement with the eddy covariance data on the seasonal trends in carbon uptake. Removing the temporal trends in the simulations by using the early season maximum value of photosynthetic capacity over the entire growing season over estimates the annual carbon uptake by about 300 g C m^?2 year^?1– halfthe total estimated annual net ecosystem exchange. Alternatively, use of the mean value of photosynthetic capacity incorrectly simulates the seasonality in carbon uptake by the forest. In addition to changes related to leaf development and senescence, photosynthetic capacitydecreased in the middle and late summer, even when leaf nitrogenwas essentially constant. When only these middle and late summer reductions were neglected in the model simulations, CANOAK still overestimated the carbon uptake by an amount comparable to 25% ofthe total annual net ecosystem exchange.     

Analysis of seasonal variation of birth defects in Atlanta

BACKGROUND: Compared with analyses of temporal trends, analyses of seasonal variations in the prevalence of birth defects have been more limited and have provided less consistent information. Possible reasons for this lack of consistency in findings include differences in populations, underlying factors, seasons or climates, and methods of ascertainment and analysis between studies. This study examines possible seasonal variation in the prevalence of selected birth defects in a defined study population using graphical displays and three statistical methods. METHODS: Cases were infants and fetal deaths in nine birth defect groups born to residents of mothers in five counties of metropolitan Atlanta during the period of 1978-2001 and ascertained by the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program. These birth defect groups were anencephaly, spina bifida, total neural tube defects, cleft palate, cleft lip with or without cleft palate, anomalies of the pulmonary valve, anomalies of the aortic valve, hypoplastic left heart syndrome, and congenital dislocation of the hip. We pooled monthly case counts and calculated monthly rates for each of these birth defect groups for five different birth periods: 1978-2001, 1978-1989, 1990-2001, 1990-1994, and 1995-2001. We applied the Cochran-Armitage test for trend to rule out homogeneity in pooled monthly rates. Data for each defect group were examined for possible seasonal (i.e., cyclical) variation overall and within the cited birth periods using the Hewitt-Rogerson test and the Walter-Elwood test. RESULTS: Graphical analyses of the pooled monthly rates showed no apparent seasonal patterns for any of the nine defect groups examined. Statistical tests for seasonality suggested possible seasonality for three defect groups: the Hewitt-Rogerson test was statistically significant for anencephaly (peak March-August, p = 0.048),while the Walter-Elwood test was significant for anomalies of the pulmonary valve (peak September, p = 0.02), and anomalies of the aortic valve (peak July, p = 0.039). With both methods, the results appeared to be influenced by the choice of time (i.e., birth) period. Results for anomalies of the pulmonary valve were statistically significant and more consistent with all tests in most of the time periods examined. CONCLUSIONS: Graphical analyses and basic statistical tests for seasonality showed no consistent evidence of seasonality for any of the nine defect groups examined, except for anomalies of the pulmonary valve. The two basic statistical methods coupled by a trend test for exploring seasonal patterns of the prevalence of birth defects can be useful for preliminary analyses of possible seasonal patterns. However, these methods have some limitations: (1) an assumption of no strong temporal trend over the study years, and (2) the results can vary by time period chosen. For specific hypotheses regarding seasonality, a more robust analytical approach such as time-series analysis might be more appropriate.     

Birth seasonally among peasant cultivators: The interrelationship of workload,diet, and fertility

The monthly distribution of live births was analyzed over a 51-year period, 1926–1976, for a rural Taiwan fishing community. Unlike previous studies of birth seasonality, monthly distributions of births did not deviate from what would be expected by chance. This new case is shown to be consistent with the suggestion, developed by Pasternak during a study of birth seasonality in two Taiwan farming communities, that for peasant cultivators the annual cycle of production exerts a more decisive influence on birth seasonality than time of marriage or attributes of temperature, rainfall, or workload. An hypothesis that links the productive cycle to conceptions through the intervening variable of diet is presented and successfully tested using several sets of data on monthly births. A direct effect of nutrition on human fertility, suggested by recent studies of reproductive performance under conditions of nutritional stress, may largely explain seasonality of conceptions and births in populations that experience significant seasonal variation in diet.The Cross Harbor data presented in this paper were collected as part of an ongoing investigation of the comparative demography and social structure of fishing, farming, and market town communities located within a particular Chinese regional system. The support of the National Science Foundation during the period of fieldwork is gratefully acknowledged. I wish to thank G. William Skinner, William H. Durham, Greg Acciaioli, Steven Sangren, Chuang Miao-huei, Harumi Befu, and Philip L. Ritter for their comments on earlier drafts of the present article. I owe a special debt of gratitude to Burton Pasternak (City University of New York), who intellectually inspired and personally encouraged the writing of this paper.     

Seasonality of births is associated with seasonality of marriages in Malta

This study was carried out to quantify secular trends in seasonal variation in births in Malta, a small Mediterranean country where the vast proportion of births occur in wedlock due to a predominantly Roman Catholic population. It also related such variations to seasonal variation in marriages. Annual seasonal peaks of marriages and births were analysed over the period 1950-1996 by X11 ARIMA. A significant peak in marriages (n = 111,932) in the third quarter of the year was found for almost the entire period under study. This was paralleled by a peak in births (n = 299,558) for the period 1970-1996, which lagged after the peak in marriages by 13-14 months. For the period 1994-1996, when monthly data for monthly pregnancies were available by pregnancy order, the peak in births was caused by first pregnancies only. Seasonal patterns in births occur almost universally due to cultural and/or biometeorological factors. The best known patterns include those of the southern United States, where births decline in April and May, and in northern Europe, where births peak in March and April. In Malta, the late summer peak in births appears to be due to a practical and planned approach by Maltese couples to contraceptive planning, probably influenced by the Roman Catholic ethos and social pressures, with unprotected intercourse occurring only after marriage. In Malta, birth control, albeit by so-called natural methods, was introduced in the 1960s. Prior to this period, births peaked towards the beginning/end of the year, and this may be the more natural seasonality of births in Malta.     

Excess mortality associated with influenza epidemics in Portugal, 1980 to 2004

Background

Influenza epidemics have a substantial impact on human health, by increasing the mortality from pneumonia and influenza, respiratory and circulatory diseases, and all causes. This paper provides estimates of excess mortality rates associated with influenza virus circulation for 7 causes of death and 8 age groups in Portugal during the period of 1980–2004.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compiled monthly mortality time series data by age for all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases, diseases of the respiratory system, chronic respiratory diseases, pneumonia and influenza. We also used a control outcome, deaths from injuries. Age- and cause-specific baseline mortality was modelled by the ARIMA approach; excess deaths attributable to influenza were calculated by subtracting expected deaths from observed deaths during influenza epidemic periods. Influenza was associated with a seasonal average of 24.7 all-cause excess deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, approximately 90% of which were among seniors over 65 yrs. Excess mortality was 3–6 fold higher during seasons dominated by the A(H3N2) subtype than seasons dominated by A(H1N1)/B. High excess mortality impact was also seen in children under the age of four years. Seasonal excess mortality rates from all the studied causes of death were highly correlated with each other (Pearson correlation range, 0.65 to 0.95, P<0.001) and with seasonal rates of influenza-like-illness (ILI) among seniors over 65 years (Pearson correlation rho>0.64, P<0.05). By contrast, there was no correlation with excess mortality from injuries.

Conclusions/Significance

Our excess mortality approach is specific to influenza virus activity and produces influenza-related mortality rates for Portugal that are similar to those published for other countries. Our results indicate that all-cause excess mortality is a robust indicator of influenza burden in Portugal, and could be used to monitor the impact of influenza epidemics in this country. Additional studies are warranted to confirm these findings in other settings.     

Population structure and reproductive period of whitebelly prawn Nematopalaemon schmitti (Holthuis 1950) (Decapoda: Caridea: Palaemonidae) on the southeastern coast of Brazil

The population biology of Nematopalaemon schmitti in the Ubatuba region on the northern coast of the state of São Paulo was characterized through analyses of the length-frequency distribution, sex ratio, reproductive period, and juvenile recruitment. The specimens were caught monthly from January 1998 to December 1999, from a shrimp boat equipped with double-rig trawl nets. A total of 1073 specimens were analyzed, and the sex and carapace length (0.1?mm) of each individual were noted. The analyzed specimens consisted of 152 juveniles, 437 adult males, 296 adult females, and 188 ovigerous females (OFs). The monthly distribution of N. schmitti by size classes revealed a stable population structure, with both juveniles and adults continuously present. This population showed a unimodal distribution; however, bimodality was identified in June 1998 and 1999 for males, and June 1998 and July 1998 and 1999 for females, probably related to recruitment pulses of juveniles. Sexual dimorphism was indicated by the presence of females in the larger size classes, probably because of their growth rate. The proportion between males and females differed from 1?:?1 in certain size classes and seasons of the year (χ ²,?p?<?0.05); in some situations, the females were more abundant than the males, or vice versa. No significant relationship was detected between the seasonal mean temperatures of the bottom water and the percentages of OFs and young, or for the relationship between these two groups (Spearman, p?>?0.05). The continuous presence of OFs and young in the population suggests a pattern of continuous reproduction for N. schmitti in the Ubatuba region.     

Generalized Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models for Count Data with Application to Malaria Time Series with Low Case Numbers

Introduction

With the renewed drive towards malaria elimination, there is a need for improved surveillance tools. While time series analysis is an important tool for surveillance, prediction and for measuring interventions’ impact, approximations by commonly used Gaussian methods are prone to inaccuracies when case counts are low. Therefore, statistical methods appropriate for count data are required, especially during “consolidation” and “pre-elimination” phases.

Methods

Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models were extended to generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (GSARIMA) models for parsimonious observation-driven modelling of non Gaussian, non stationary and/or seasonal time series of count data. The models were applied to monthly malaria case time series in a district in Sri Lanka, where malaria has decreased dramatically in recent years.

Results

The malaria series showed long-term changes in the mean, unstable variance and seasonality. After fitting negative-binomial Bayesian models, both a GSARIMA and a GARIMA deterministic seasonality model were selected based on different criteria. Posterior predictive distributions indicated that negative-binomial models provided better predictions than Gaussian models, especially when counts were low. The G(S)ARIMA models were able to capture the autocorrelation in the series.

Conclusions

G(S)ARIMA models may be particularly useful in the drive towards malaria elimination, since episode count series are often seasonal and non-stationary, especially when control is increased. Although building and fitting GSARIMA models is laborious, they may provide more realistic prediction distributions than do Gaussian methods and may be more suitable when counts are low.     

Reproductive biology of the Panama graysby Cephalopholis panamensis (Teleostei: Epinephelidae)

The reproductive biology of the Panama graysby Cephalopholis panamensis was studied from collections and behavioural observations made in the Gulf of California from 2001 to 2006. Histological examinations, particularly the identification of gonads undergoing sexual transition, confirmed a protogynous hermaphroditic sexual pattern. The population structure and mating behaviour provided further support for protogyny. Size and age distributions by sex were bimodal, with males larger and older than females and sex ratios biased towards females. Mating groups consisted of a large male and several smaller females, and courtship occurred in pairs during the evening. Results on spawning periodicity and seasonality were incomplete, but histological data, monthly gonado‐somatic indices (I_G) and behavioural observations suggest that adults spawned around the full moon from May to September. Certain aspects of their reproductive biology (e.g. protogyny and low egg production) indicate that C. panamensis is particularly vulnerable to fishing and would benefit from a management policy in Mexico.