Estimating the effective number of breeders from heterozygote excess in progeny

The heterozygote-excess method is a recently published method for estimating the effective population size (Ne). It is based on the following principle: When the effective number of breeders (Neb) in a population is small, the allele frequencies will (by chance) be different in males and females, which causes an excess of heterozygotes in the progeny with respect to Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium expectations. We evaluate the accuracy and precision of the heterozygote-excess method using empirical and simulated data sets from polygamous, polygynous, and monogamous mating systems and by using realistic sample sizes of individuals (15-120) and loci (5-30) with varying levels of polymorphism. The method gave nearly unbiased estimates of Neb under all three mating systems. However, the confidence intervals on the point estimates of Neb were sufficiently small (and hence the heterozygote-excess method useful) only in polygamous and polygynous populations that were produced by <10 effective breeders, unless samples included > approximately 60 individuals and 20 multiallelic loci.     

Nb_HetEx: a program to estimate the effective number of breeders

The program "Nb_HetEx" estimates the effective number of breeders (N(b)) that produced the sampled progeny based on genotype counts contained in that sample. When the number of breeders is very small, there is an excess of heterozygotes in their progeny: the smaller the number of breeders, the larger the heterozygote excess. The Nb_HetEx program also estimates N(e) through the temporal method.     

Heterozygote excess in small populations and the heterozygote-excess effective population size

It has been proposed that effective size could be estimated in small dioecious population by considering the heterozygote excess observed at neutral markers. When the number of breeders is small, allelic frequencies in males and females will slightly differ due to binomial sampling error. However, this excess of heterozygotes is not generated by dioecy but by the absence of individuals produced through selfing. Consequently, the approach can also be applied to self-incompatible monoecious species. Some inaccuracies in earlier equations expressing effective size as function of the heterozygote excess are also corrected in this paper. The approach is then extended to subdivided populations, where time of sampling becomes crucial. When adults are sampled, the effective size of the entire population can be estimated, whereas when juveniles are sampled, the average effective number of breeders per subpopulations can be estimated. The main limitation of the heterozygote excess method is that it will only perform satisfactorily for populations with a small number of reproducing individuals. While this situation is unlikely to happen frequently at the scale of the entire population, structured populations with small subpopulations are likely to be common. The estimation of the average number of breeders per subpopulations is thus expected to be applicable to many natural populations. The approach is straightforward to compute and independent of equilibrium assumptions. Applications to simulated data suggest the estimation of the number of breeders to be robust to mutation and migration rates, and to specificities of the mating system.     

Extra-pair fertilization and effective population size in the song sparrow Melospiza melodia

The concept of effective population size (N_e) is used widely by conservation and evolutionary biologists as an indicator of the genetic state of populations, but its precision and relation to the census population size is often uncertain. Extra-pair fertilizations have the potential to bias estimates of N_e when they affect the number of breeders or their estimated reproductive success tallied from social pedigrees. We tested if the occurrence of extra-pair fertilizations influenced estimates of N_e in a resident population of song sparrows Melospiza melodia using four years of detailed behavioural and genetic data. Estimates of N_e based on social and genetic data were nearly identical and averaged c. 65% of the census population size over four years, despite that 28% of 471 independent young were sired outside of social pairs. Variance in male reproductive success also did not differ between estimates based on social and genetic data, indicating that extra-pair mating had little effect on the distribution of reproductive success in our study population. Our results show that the genetic assignment will not always be necessary to estimate N_e precisely.     

The genetic effective and adult census size of an Australian population of tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus)

This study compares estimates of the census size of the spawning population with genetic estimates of effective current and long-term population size for an abundant and commercially important marine invertebrate, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus). Our aim was to focus on the relationship between genetic effective and census size that may provide a source of information for viability analyses of naturally occurring populations. Samples were taken in 2001, 2002 and 2003 from a population on the east coast of Australia and temporal allelic variation was measured at eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Moments-based and maximum-likelihood estimates of current genetic effective population size ranged from 797 to 1304. The mean long-term genetic effective population size was 9968. Although small for a large population, the effective population size estimates were above the threshold where genetic diversity is lost at neutral alleles through drift or inbreeding. Simulation studies correctly predicted that under these experimental conditions the genetic estimates would have non-infinite upper confidence limits and revealed they might be overestimates of the true size. We also show that estimates of mortality and variance in family size may be derived from data on average fecundity, current genetic effective and census spawning population size, assuming effective population size is equivalent to the number of breeders. This work confirms that it is feasible to obtain accurate estimates of current genetic effective population size for abundant Type III species using existing genetic marker technology.     

Genetic estimates of contemporary effective population size: to what time periods do the estimates apply?

Although most genetic estimates of contemporary effective population size (Ne) are based on models that assume Ne is constant, in real populations Ne changes (often dramatically) over time, and estimates (Ne) will be influenced by Ne in specific generations. In such cases, it is important to properly match Ne to the appropriate time periods (for example, in computing Ne/N ratios). Here I consider this problem for semelparous species with two life histories (discrete generations and variable age at maturity--the 'salmon' model), for two different sampling plans, and for estimators based on single samples (linkage disequilibrium, heterozygote excess) and two samples (temporal method). Results include the following. Discrete generations: (i) Temporal samples from generations 0 and t estimate the harmonic mean Ne in generations 0 through t - 1 but do not provide information about Ne in generation t; (ii) Single samples provide an estimate of Ne in the parental generation, not the generation sampled; (iii) single-sample and temporal estimates never provide information about Ne in exactly the same generations; (iv) Recent bottlenecks can downwardly bias estimates based on linkage disequilibrium for several generations. Salmon model: (i) A pair of single-cohort (typically juvenile) samples from years 0 and t provide a temporal estimate of the harmonic mean of the effective numbers of breeders in the two parental years (N b(0) and N b(t)), but adult samples are more difficult to interpret because they are influenced by Nb in a number of previous years; (ii) For single-cohort samples, both one-sample and temporal methods provide estimates of Nb in the same years (contrast with results for discrete generation model); (iii) Residual linkage disequilibrium associated with past population size will not affect single-sample estimates of Nb as much as in the discrete generation model because the disequilibrium diffuses among different years of breeders. These results lead to some general conclusions about genetic estimates of Ne in iteroparous species with overlapping generations and identify areas in need of further research.     

Effective number of white shark (Carcharodon carcharias,Linnaeus) breeders is stable over four successive years in the population adjacent to eastern Australia and New Zealand

Population size is a central parameter for conservation; however, monitoring abundance is often problematic for threatened marine species. Despite substantial investment in research, many marine species remain data‐poor presenting barriers to the evaluation of conservation management outcomes and the modeling of future solutions. Such is the case for the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias), a highly mobile apex predator for whom recent and substantial population declines have been recorded in many globally distributed populations. Here, we estimate the effective number of breeders that successfully contribute offspring in one reproductive cycle (Nb) to provide a snapshot of recent reproductive effort in an east Australian–New Zealand population of white shark. Nb was estimated over four consecutive age cohorts (2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013) using two genetic estimators (linkage disequilibrium; LD and sibship assignment; SA) based on genetic data derived from two types of genetic markers (single nucleotide polymorphisms; SNPs and microsatellite loci). While estimates of Nb using different marker types produced comparable estimates, microsatellite loci were the least precise. The LD and SA estimates of Nb within cohorts using SNPs were comparable; for example, the 2013 age cohort Nb(SA) was 289 (95% CI 200–461) and Nb(LD) was 208.5 (95% CI 116.4–712.7). We show that over the time period studied, Nb was stable and ranged between 206.1 (SD ± 45.9) and 252.0 (SD ± 46.7) per year using a combined estimate of Nb(LD+SA) from SNP loci. In addition, a simulation approach showed that in this population the effective population size (Ne) per generation can be expected to be larger than Nb per reproductive cycle. This study demonstrates how breeding population size can be monitored over time to provide insight into the effectiveness of recovery and conservation measures for the white shark, where the methods described here may be applicable to other data‐poor species of conservation concern.     

Population bottleneck and effective size in Bonamia ostreae-resistant populations of Ostrea edulis as inferred by microsatellite markers

Genetic variability at five microsatellite loci was analysed in three hatchery-propagated populations of the flat oyster, Ostrea edulis. These populations were part of a selection programme for resistance to the protozoan parasite Bonamia ostreae and were produced by mass spawns, without control of the genealogy. Evidence for population bottlenecks and inbreeding was sought. A reduction in the number of alleles, mainly due to the loss of rare alleles, was observed in all selected populations, relative to the natural population from which they were derived. Heterozygote excesses were observed in two populations, and were attributed to substructuring of the population into a small number of families. Pedigree reconstruction showed that these two populations were produced by at most two spawning events involving a limited number of parents. Most individuals within these populations are half or full-sib, as shown by relatedness coefficients. The occurrence of population bottlenecks was supported by estimates of effective number of breeders derived by three methods: temporal variance in allelic frequencies, heterozygote excess, and a new method based on reduction in the number of alleles. The estimates from the different methods were consistent. The evidence for bottleneck and small effective number of breeders are expected to lead to increasing inbreeding, and have important consequences for the future management of the three O. edulis selected populations.     

Microsatellite markers reveal shallow genetic differentiation between cohorts of the common sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Lamarck) in northwest Mediterranean

Temporal variability was studied in the common sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus through the analysis of the genetic composition of three yearly cohorts sampled over two consecutive springs in a locality in northwestern Mediterranean. Individuals were aged using growth ring patterns observed in tests and samples were genotyped for five microsatellite loci. No reduction of genetic diversity was observed relative to a sample of the adult population from the same location or within cohorts across years. F _ST and amova results indicated that the differentiation between cohorts is rather shallow and not significant, as most variability is found within cohorts and within individuals. This mild differentiation translated into estimates of effective population size of 90–100 individuals. When the observed excess of homozygotes was taken into account, the estimate of the average number of breeders increased to c . 300 individuals. Given our restricted sampling area and the known small-scale heterogeneity in recruitment in this species, our results suggest that at stretches of a few kilometres of shoreline, large numbers of progenitors are likely to contribute to the larval pool at each reproduction event. Intercohort variation in our samples is six times smaller than spatial variation between adults of four localities in the western Mediterranean. Our results indicate that, notwithstanding the stochastic events that take place during the long planktonic phase and during the settlement and recruitment processes, reproductive success in this species is high enough to produce cohorts genetically diverse and with little differentiation between them. Further research is needed before the link between genetic structure and underlying physical and biological processes can be well established.     

Long-term population size of the North Atlantic humpback whale within the context of worldwide population structure

Once hunted to the brink of extinction, humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Atlantic have recently been increasing in numbers. However, uncertain information on past abundance makes it difficult to assess the extent of the recovery in this species. While estimates of pre-exploitation abundance based upon catch data suggest the population might be approaching pre-whaling numbers, estimates based on mtDNA genetic diversity suggest they are still only a fraction of their past abundance levels. The difference between the two estimates could be accounted for by inaccuracies in the catch record, by uncertainties surrounding the genetic estimate, or by differences in the timescale to which the two estimates apply. Here we report an estimate of long-term population size based on nuclear gene diversity. We increase the reliability of our genetic estimate by increasing the number of loci, incorporating uncertainty in each parameter and increasing sampling across the geographic range. We report an estimate of long-term population size in the North Atlantic humpback of ~112,000 individuals (95 % CI 45,000–235,000). This value is 2–3 fold higher than estimates based upon catch data. This persistent difference between estimates parallels difficulties encountered by population models in explaining the historical crash of North Atlantic humpback whales. The remaining discrepancy between genetic and catch-record values, and the failure of population models, highlights a need for continued evaluation of whale population growth and shifts over time, and continued caution about changing the conservation status of this population.     

Genetic monitoring reveals temporal stability over 30 years in a small, lake-resident brown trout population

Knowledge of the degree of temporal stability of population genetic structure and composition is important for understanding microevolutionary processes and addressing issues of human impact of natural populations. We know little about how representative single samples in time are to reflect population genetic constitution, and we explore the temporal genetic variability patterns over a 30-year period of annual sampling of a lake-resident brown trout (Salmo trutta) population, covering 37 consecutive cohorts and five generations. Levels of variation remain largely stable over this period, with no indication of substructuring within the lake. We detect genetic drift, however, and the genetically effective population size (N(e)) was assessed from allele-frequency shifts between consecutive cohorts using an unbiased estimator that accounts for the effect of overlapping generation. The overall mean N(e) is estimated as 74. We find indications that N(e) varies over time, but there is no obvious temporal trend. We also estimated N(e) using a one-sample approach based on linkage disequilibrium (LD) that does not account for the effect of overlapping generations. Combining one-sample estimates for all years gives an N(e) estimate of 76. This similarity between estimates may be coincidental or reflecting a general robustness of the LD approach to violations of the discrete generations assumption. In contrast to the observed genetic stability, body size and catch per effort have increased over the study period. Estimates of annual effective number of breeders (N(b)) correlated with catch per effort, suggesting that genetic monitoring can be used for detecting fluctuations in abundance.     

A comparison of single‐sample effective size estimators using empirical toad (Bufo calamita) population data: genetic compensation and population size‐genetic diversity correlations

The accuracy and precision of four single‐sample estimators of effective population size, N_e (heterozygote excess, linkage disequilibrium, Bayesian partial likelihood and sibship analysis) were compared using empirical data (microsatellite genotypes) from multiple natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) populations in Britain (n = 16) and elsewhere in Europe (n = 10). Census size data were available for the British populations. Because toads have overlapping generations, all of these methods estimated the number of effective breeders N_b rather than N_e. The heterozygote excess method only provided results, without confidence limits, for nine of the British populations. Linkage disequilibrium gave estimates for 10 British populations, but only six had finite confidence limits. The Bayesian and sibship methods both produced estimates with finite confidence limits for all the populations. Although the Bayesian method was the most precise, on most criteria (insensitivity to locus number, correlation with other effective and census size estimates and correlation with genetic diversity) the sibship method performed best. The results also provided evidence of genetic compensation in natterjack toads, and highlighted how the relationship between effective size and genetic diversity can vary as a function of geographical scale.     

Population genetics of the American eel (Anguilla rostrata): FST = 0 and North Atlantic Oscillation effects on demographic fluctuations of a panmictic species

We performed population genetic analyses on the American eel (Anguilla rostrata) with three main objectives. First, we conducted the most comprehensive analysis of neutral genetic population structure to date to revisit the null hypothesis of panmixia in this species. Second, we used this data to provide the first estimates of contemporary effective population size (N_e) and to document temporal variation in effective number of breeders (N_b) in American eel. Third, we tested for statistical associations between temporal variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the effective number of breeders and two indices of recruit abundance. A total of 2142 eels from 32 sampling locations were genotyped with 18 microsatellite loci. All measures of differentiation were essentially zero, and no evidence for significant spatial or temporal genetic differentiation was found. The panmixia hypothesis should thus be accepted for this species. N_b estimates varied by a factor of 23 among 12 cohorts, from 473 to 10 999. The effective population size N_e was estimated at 10 532 (95% CI, 9312–11 752). This study also showed that genetically based demographic indices, namely N_b and allelic richness (Ar), can be used as surrogates for the abundance of breeders and recruits, which were both shown to be positively influenced by variation during high (positive) NAO phases. Thus, long‐term genetic monitoring of American glass eels at several sites along the North American Atlantic coast would represent a powerful and efficient complement to census monitoring to track demographic fluctuations and better understand their causes.     

Estimation of effective population size for the long-lived darkblotched rockfish Sebastes crameri

We report the variance effective population size (Ne) in darkblotched rockfish (Sebastes crameri) utilizing the temporal method for overlapping generations, which requires a combination of age-specific demography and genetic information from cohorts. Following calculations of age-specific survival and reproductive success from fishery data, we genotyped a sample (n = 1087) comprised by 6 cohorts (from 1995 to 2000) across 7 microsatellite loci. Our Ne estimate (Ne) plus 95% confidence interval was (Ne) = 9157 [6495-12 215], showing that the breeding population number could be 3-4 orders of magnitude smaller than the census population size (N) = 24 376 210). Our estimates resemble closely those found for fishes with similar life history, suggesting that the small (Ne)/(N) ratio for S. crameri is most likely explained by a combination of high variance in reproductive success among individuals, genetic structure, and demographic perturbations such as historical fishing. Because small (Ne)/(N) ratios have been commonly associated with potential loss of genetic variation, our estimates need careful consideration in rockfish management and conservation.     

Demography and population trends of Whooping Cranes

ABSTRACT Previous studies of Whooping Crane demography used estimates of fecundity rates based on females in captivity, and breeding success was estimated based on either the number of unbanded pairs nesting or the number arriving in wintering areas with chicks. We analyzed demographic data from 12 cohorts of banded Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) from the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge/Wood Buffalo National Park (ANWR/WBNP) population that had not been compiled previously into a single data base and had not been included in previous population analyses. We estimated age‐specific survival and natality, parameterized an age‐structured density‐dependent model, and projected population sizes assuming two different estimates of wintering ground carrying capacity. Sixty‐seven of 132 birds banded between 1977 and 1988 formed nesting pairs, females first produced hatchlings when 3 to 7 yrs old, and the annual proportion of mature females that reproduced successfully ranged from 0.566 to 0.606. Population projections indicate that the down‐listing criterion of reaching a population size of 1000 individuals might be attained considerably later than the target year (2035) indicated in the Whooping Crane recovery plan. Even assuming that all suitable habitat within a ～100‐km radius of their current winter range could be occupied, projections suggest that population size may be ～700 in 2035, and might not reach 1000 individuals until the mid‐2060s. Based on their territorial behavior on the wintering grounds, long generation time and faithfulness to their migratory route, we suspect that the population growth rate may decrease markedly in the near future and the ANWR/WBNP population may remain below the target down‐listing size of 1000 individuals.     

Can Genetic Estimators Provide Robust Estimates of the Effective Number of Breeders in Small Populations?

The effective population size (N_e) is proportional to the loss of genetic diversity and the rate of inbreeding, and its accurate estimation is crucial for the monitoring of small populations. Here, we integrate temporal studies of the gecko Oedura reticulata, to compare genetic and demographic estimators of N_e. Because geckos have overlapping generations, our goal was to demographically estimate N_bI, the inbreeding effective number of breeders and to calculate the N_bI/N_a ratio (N_a = number of adults) for four populations. Demographically estimated N_bI ranged from 1 to 65 individuals. The mean reduction in the effective number of breeders relative to census size (N_bI/N_a) was 0.1 to 1.1. We identified the variance in reproductive success as the most important variable contributing to reduction of this ratio. We used four methods to estimate the genetic based inbreeding effective number of breeders N_bI(gen) and the variance effective populations size N_eV(gen) estimates from the genotype data. Two of these methods - a temporal moment-based (MBT) and a likelihood-based approach (TM3) require at least two samples in time, while the other two were single-sample estimators - the linkage disequilibrium method with bias correction LDNe and the program ONeSAMP. The genetic based estimates were fairly similar across methods and also similar to the demographic estimates excluding those estimates, in which upper confidence interval boundaries were uninformative. For example, LDNe and ONeSAMP estimates ranged from 14–55 and 24–48 individuals, respectively. However, temporal methods suffered from a large variation in confidence intervals and concerns about the prior information. We conclude that the single-sample estimators are an acceptable short-cut to estimate N_bI for species such as geckos and will be of great importance for the monitoring of species in fragmented landscapes.     

Population genetic structure and effective population size of ayu (Plecoglossus altivelis), an amphidromous fish

The temporal and spatial population genetic structure of ayu Plecoglossus altivelis (Salmoniformes: Plecoglossidae), an amphidromous fish, was examined using analysis of variation at six microsatellite DNA loci. Intracohort genetic diversities, as measured by the number of alleles and heterozygosity, were similar among six cohorts (2001–2006) within a population (Nezugaseki River), with the mean number of alleles per cohort ranging from 11·0 to 12·5 and the expected heterozygosity ranging from 0·74 to 0·77. Intrapopulational genetic diversities were also similar across the three studied populations along the 50 km coast, with the mean number of alleles and the expected heterozygosity ranging from 11·33 to 11·67 and from 0·75 to 0·76, respectively. The authors observed only one significant difference in pair-wise population differentiation ( F _ST-value) between the cohorts within a population and among three populations. Estimates of the effective population size ( N _e) based on maximum-likelihood method yielded small values (ranging from 94·8 to 135·5), whereas census population size ranged from c. 4800 to 24 000. As a result, the ratio of annual effective population sizes to census population size ( N _e/ N ) ranged from 0·004 to 0·023. These estimates of N _e/ N agree more closely with estimates for marine fishes than that of the larger estimates for freshwater fishes. The present study suggests that ayu which is highly fecund and shows low survival during the early life stages is also characterized by having low value of N _e/ N , similar to marine species with a pelagic life cycle.     

Effective number of breeders and maintenance of genetic diversity in the captive bearded vulture population

We combined pedigree data with data derived from 14 microsatellite loci to investigate genetic diversity and its maintenance in the captive source population for the reintroduction of the bearded vulture into the Alps. We found the captive population to be genetically more variable than the largest natural population in Europe, both in terms of mean number of alleles per locus and mean observed and expected heterozygosity. Allelic diversity of the captive population was higher than, and mean heterozygosity measurements were comparable with the ones found in two large, extinct populations from Sardinia and the Alps represented by museum specimens. The amount of genetic variability recruited with the founders was still present in the captive population of the year 2000, mainly because the carriers of rare alleles were still alive. However, the decline in expected heterozygosity and the loss of alleles over generations in captivity was significant. Point estimates of effective population size, N(e), based on pedigree data and estimates of effective number of breeders, N(b), based on allele frequency changes, ranged from 20 to 30 and were significantly smaller than the census size. The results demonstrate that the amount of genetic variability in the captive bearded vulture population is comparable or even larger than the amount present in natural populations. However, the population is in danger to lose genetic variability over time because of genetic drift. Management strategies should therefore aim at preserving genetic variability by minimising kinship, and at increasing N(e) by recruiting additional founders and enhancing gene flow between the released, the captive and natural populations.     

Combining Harvest and Genetics to Estimate Reproduction in Wolves

Parameters of reproductive success are important to the management of wildlife populations. Genetic monitoring can be an effective approach for acquiring this important demographic information when traditional methods are unsuccessful, inefficient, or too expensive. This study demonstrates a novel application of genetic data opportunistically collected from harvested game to estimate a minimum annual count of breeding packs of gray wolves (Canis lupus) and to provide a coarse index of harvest vulnerability of young of the year (YOY) across packs. We used 18 microsatellite loci to genotype 98 gray wolf YOY from 2014 and 105 from 2015 harvested in Idaho, USA. Using this genotype data, we reconstructed sibling groups for each cohort using the program COLONY and treated full-sibling litters as proxies for unique packs. In addition to evaluating our marker panel using simulations, we assessed the accuracy of empirical relationship assignments by adding YOY of known relationship from long-term study packs to the dataset (27 individuals from 2014 and 61 from 2015) and tracking correctly reconstructed relationships. We varied COLONY input parameters to evaluate the power of relationship assignments under conditions that may be encountered when working with empirical data. We also compared COLONY's estimates of effective number of breeders based on sibship frequency to estimates based on a commonly used linkage-disequilibrium method. All COLONY runs for both cohorts correctly identified the known sibling relationships. Among the other individuals, changes in the geographic clustering of putative siblings, probabilities of inclusion and exclusion for reconstructed sibling groups, and consistency of relationship assignments across COLONY runs suggested that marker number had a larger effect on accuracy than access to population-level genetic data. Our estimates of breeding packs subjected to harvest within the state (52 for 2014 and 63 for 2015) differed from estimates reported by Idaho Department of Fish and Game by ≤6 for both years. Among packs that had pups harvested, most packs had 1–2 YOY harvested, whereas other packs had as many as 5 YOY harvested. All estimates of the number of effective breeders had overlapping confidence intervals regardless of method, though sibship frequency-based estimates had larger confidence intervals than estimates using the linkage disequilibrium method. Our study shows that sibling relationships can be accurately and reliably reconstructed from harvested gray wolves, and demonstrates a valuable new use of samples collected through harvest. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Monitoring the effective population size of a brown bear (Ursus arctos) population using new single-sample approaches

The effective population size (N(e) ) could be the ideal parameter for monitoring populations of conservation concern as it conveniently summarizes both the evolutionary potential of the population and its sensitivity to genetic stochasticity. However, tracing its change through time is difficult in natural populations. We applied four new methods for estimating N(e) from a single sample of genotypes to trace temporal change in N(e) for bears in the Northern Dinaric Mountains. We genotyped 510 bears using 20 microsatellite loci and determined their age. The samples were organized into cohorts with regard to the year when the animals were born and yearly samples with age categories for every year when they were alive. We used the Estimator by Parentage Assignment (EPA) to directly estimate both N(e) and generation interval for each yearly sample. For cohorts, we estimated the effective number of breeders (N(b) ) using linkage disequilibrium, sibship assignment and approximate Bayesian computation methods and extrapolated these estimates to N(e) using the generation interval. The N(e) estimate by EPA is 276 (183-350 95% CI), meeting the inbreeding-avoidance criterion of N(e) > 50 but short of the long-term minimum viable population goal of N(e) > 500. The results obtained by the other methods are highly consistent with this result, and all indicate a rapid increase in N(e) probably in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The new single-sample approaches to the estimation of N(e) provide efficient means for including N(e) in monitoring frameworks and will be of great importance for future management and conservation.