Economic Appraisal of Ontario's Universal Influenza Immunization Program: A Cost-Utility Analysis

Background

In July 2000, the province of Ontario, Canada, initiated a universal influenza immunization program (UIIP) to provide free seasonal influenza vaccines for the entire population. This is the first large-scale program of its kind worldwide. The objective of this study was to conduct an economic appraisal of Ontario''s UIIP compared to a targeted influenza immunization program (TIIP).

Methods and Findings

A cost-utility analysis using Ontario health administrative data was performed. The study was informed by a companion ecological study comparing physician visits, emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and deaths between 1997 and 2004 in Ontario and nine other Canadian provinces offering targeted immunization programs. The relative change estimates from pre-2000 to post-2000 as observed in other provinces were applied to pre-UIIP Ontario event rates to calculate the expected number of events had Ontario continued to offer targeted immunization. Main outcome measures were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs in 2006 Canadian dollars, and incremental cost-utility ratios (incremental cost per QALY gained). Program and other costs were drawn from Ontario sources. Utility weights were obtained from the literature. The incremental cost of the program per QALY gained was calculated from the health care payer perspective. Ontario''s UIIP costs approximately twice as much as a targeted program but reduces influenza cases by 61% and mortality by 28%, saving an estimated 1,134 QALYs per season overall. Reducing influenza cases decreases health care services cost by 52%. Most cost savings can be attributed to hospitalizations avoided. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is Can$10,797/QALY gained. Results are most sensitive to immunization cost and number of deaths averted.

Conclusions

Universal immunization against seasonal influenza was estimated to be an economically attractive intervention. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Excess Mortality Associated with Influenza among Tuberculosis Deaths in South Africa, 1999–2009

Background

Published data on the interaction between influenza and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) are limited. We aimed to estimate the influenza-associated mortality among individuals with PTB in South Africa from 1999–2009.

Methods

We modelled the excess influenza-associated mortality by applying Poisson regression models to monthly PTB and non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths, using laboratory-confirmed influenza as a covariate.

Results

PTB deaths increased each winter, coinciding with influenza virus circulation. Among individuals of any age, mean annual influenza-associated PTB mortality rate was 164/100,000 person-years (n = 439). The rate of non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths was 27/100,000 (n = 1125) for HIV-infected and 5/100,000 (n = 2367) for HIV-uninfected individuals of all ages. Among individuals aged <65 years, influenza-associated PTB mortality risk was elevated compared to influenza-associated non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths in HIV-infected (relative risk (RR): 5.2; 95% CI: 4.6–5.9) and HIV-uninfected individuals (RR: 61.0; CI: 41.4–91.0). Among individuals aged ≥65 years, influenza-associated PTB mortality risk was elevated compared to influenza-associated non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths in HIV-uninfected individuals (RR: 13.0; 95% CI: 12.0–14.0).

Conclusion

We observed an increased risk of influenza-associated mortality in persons with PTB compared to non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths. If confirmed in other settings, our findings may support recommendations for active inclusion of patients with TB for influenza vaccination and empiric influenza anti-viral treatment of patients with TB during influenza epidemics.     

The population impact of a large school-based influenza vaccination campaign

Background

The optimal vaccination strategy to mitigate the impact of influenza epidemics is unclear. In 2005, a countywide school-based influenza vaccination campaign was launched in Knox County, Tennessee (population 385,899). Approximately 41% and 48% of eligible county children aged 5–17 years were immunized with live attenuated influenza vaccine before the 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 influenza seasons, respectively. We sought to determine the population impact of this campaign.

Methods

Laboratory-confirmed influenza data defined influenza seasons. We calculated the incidence of medically attended acute respiratory illness attributable to influenza in Knox and Knox-surrounding counties (concurrent controls) during consecutive seasons (5 precampaign and 2 campaign seasons) using negative binomial regression and rate difference methods. Age-stratified analyses compared the incidence of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations attributable to influenza.

Results

During precampaign seasons, estimated ED visit rates attributable to influenza were 12.39 (95% CI: 10.34–14.44) per 1000 Knox children aged 5–17 years and similar in Knox-surrounding counties. During the campaign seasons, annual Knox influenza-associated ED visit rates declined relative to rates in Knox-surrounding counties: rate ratios 0.55 (95% CI: 0.27–0.83) and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.56–0.84) for the first and second campaign seasons, respectively. Overall, there were about 35% or 4.86 per 1000 fewer influenza-associated ED visits among Knox County children aged 5–17 years attributable to the campaign. No significant declines in Knox compared to surrounding counties were detected for influenza associated ED visits in children aged <5 years, all adults combined or selected adult age subgroups, although power for these analyses was limited. Alternate rate-difference analyses yielded consistent results.

Conclusion

Vaccination of approximately 45% of Knox school-aged children with influenza vaccine was associated with a 35% annual reduction (4.86 per 1000) in ED visit rates attributable to influenza. Higher vaccination coverage and/or larger studies would be needed to determine whether similar interventions have indirect benefits in other age groups.     

Differences in Access to Services in Rural Emergency Departments of Quebec and Ontario

Introduction

Rural emergency departments (EDs) are important safety nets for the 20% of Canadians who live there. A serious problem in access to health care services in these regions has emerged. However, there are considerable geographic disparities in access to trauma center in Canada. The main objective of this project was to compare access to local 24/7 support services in rural EDs in Quebec and Ontario as well as distances to Levels 1 and 2 trauma centers.

Materials and Methods

Rural EDs were identified through the Canadian Healthcare Association''s Guide to Canadian Healthcare Facilities. We selected hospitals with 24/7 ED physician coverage and hospitalization beds that were located in rural communities. There were 26 rural EDs in Quebec and 62 in Ontario meeting these criteria. Data were collected from ministries of health, local health authorities, and ED statistics. Fisher’s exact test, the t-test or Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test, were performed to compare rural EDs of Quebec and Ontario.

Results

All selected EDs of Quebec and Ontario agreed to participate in the study. The number of EDs visits was higher in Quebec than in Ontario (19 322 ± 6 275 vs 13 446 ± 8 056, p = 0.0013). There were no significant differences between Quebec and Ontario’s local population and small town population density. Quebec’s EDs have better access to advance imaging services such as CT scanner (77% vs 15%, p < .0001) and most the consultant support and ICU (92% vs 31%, p < .0001). Finally, more than 40% of rural EDs in Quebec and Ontario are more than 300 km away from Levels 1 and 2 trauma centers.

Conclusions

Considering that Canada has a Universal health care system, the discrepancies between Quebec and Ontario in access to support services are intriguing. A nationwide study is justified to address this issue.     

Effectiveness of Inactivated Influenza Vaccines in Preventing Influenza-Associated Deaths and Hospitalizations among Ontario Residents Aged ≥65 Years: Estimates with Generalized Linear Models Accounting for Healthy Vaccinee Effects

Background

Estimates of the effectiveness of influenza vaccines in older adults may be biased because of difficulties identifying and adjusting for confounders of the vaccine-outcome association. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for prevention of serious influenza complications among older persons by using methods to account for underlying differences in risk for these complications.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Ontario residents aged ≥65 years from September 1993 through September 2008. We linked weekly vaccination, hospitalization, and death records for 1.4 million community-dwelling persons aged ≥65 years. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated by comparing ratios of outcome rates during weeks of high versus low influenza activity (defined by viral surveillance data) among vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects by using log-linear regression models that accounted for temperature and time trends with natural spline functions. Effectiveness was estimated for three influenza-associated outcomes: all-cause deaths, deaths occurring within 30 days of pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations, and pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations.

Results

During weeks when 5% of respiratory specimens tested positive for influenza A, vaccine effectiveness among persons aged ≥65 years was 22% (95% confidence interval [CI], −6%–42%) for all influenza-associated deaths, 25% (95% CI, 13%–37%) for deaths occurring within 30 days after an influenza-associated pneumonia/influenza hospitalization, and 19% (95% CI, 4%–31%) for influenza-associated pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations. Because small proportions of deaths, deaths after pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations, and pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations were associated with influenza virus circulation, we estimated that vaccination prevented 1.6%, 4.8%, and 4.1% of these outcomes, respectively.

Conclusions

By using confounding-reducing techniques with 15 years of provincial-level data including vaccination and health outcomes, we estimated that influenza vaccination prevented ∼4% of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths occurring after hospitalizations among older adults in Ontario.     

Registry-based surveillance of influenza-associated hospitalisations during the 2009 influenza pandemic in Denmark: the hidden burden on the young

Background

To follow the impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Denmark, influenza surveillance was extended with a system monitoring potentially influenza-associated hospitalisations.

Methodology/Principal Findings

National administrative data from 2004–2010 from the automatic reporting of all hospital visits and admissions in Denmark (population 5.5 million) were used. In-patient hospitalisations linked to ICD-10 codes for potentially influenza-associated conditions (influenza, viral and bacterial pneumonia, respiratory distress, and febrile convulsion) were aggregated by week and age groups; <5 years, 5–24 years, 25–64 years and ≥65 years. Weekly numbers of influenza-associated hospitalisations were plotted to follow the course of the pandemic. We calculated the total numbers of influenza-associated hospitalisations in each influenza season (week 30 to week 15, the following year). Risk ratios of being admitted with an influenza-associated condition in this season (2009/2010) compared to the previous five seasons (2004/2005–2008/2009) were calculated using binary regression. During the pandemic season, influenza-associated hospitalisations peaked in week 47, 2009. The total number of influenza-associated hospitalisations was 38,273 compared to the median of previous seasons of 35,662 (p = 0.28). The risk ratio of influenza-associated hospitalisations during the pandemic season compared to previous seasons was 1.63 (95%CI 1.49–1.78) for 5–24 year-olds and ranged between 0.98 and 1.08 for the other three age groups.

Conclusions

The 2009 pandemic influenza did not lead to an overall increase in the number of influenza-associated hospitalisations in Denmark in the 2009/2010 season and could be managed within existing hospital capacity. However, there was a disproportionally large impact on the age group 5–24 years. The influenza-associated hospitalisations during the 2009/2010 pandemic influenza season bore the signature features of historical pandemics: A skewed age-pattern and early out of season transmission.     

Characterization of Regional Influenza Seasonality Patterns in China and Implications for Vaccination Strategies: Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Surveillance Data

Background

The complexity of influenza seasonal patterns in the inter-tropical zone impedes the establishment of effective routine immunization programs. China is a climatologically and economically diverse country, which has yet to establish a national influenza vaccination program. Here we characterize the diversity of influenza seasonality in China and make recommendations to guide future vaccination programs.

Methods and Findings

We compiled weekly reports of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B infections from sentinel hospitals in cities representing 30 Chinese provinces, 2005–2011, and data on population demographics, mobility patterns, socio-economic, and climate factors. We applied linear regression models with harmonic terms to estimate influenza seasonal characteristics, including the amplitude of annual and semi-annual periodicities, their ratio, and peak timing. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling and hierarchical clustering were used to identify predictors of influenza seasonal characteristics and define epidemiologically-relevant regions. The annual periodicity of influenza A epidemics increased with latitude (mean amplitude of annual cycle standardized by mean incidence, 140% [95% CI 128%–151%] in the north versus 37% [95% CI 27%–47%] in the south, p<0.0001). Epidemics peaked in January–February in Northern China (latitude ≥33°N) and April–June in southernmost regions (latitude <27°N). Provinces at intermediate latitudes experienced dominant semi-annual influenza A periodicity with peaks in January–February and June–August (periodicity ratio >0.6 in provinces located within 27.4°N–31.3°N, slope of latitudinal gradient with latitude −0.016 [95% CI −0.025 to −0.008], p<0.001). In contrast, influenza B activity predominated in colder months throughout most of China. Climate factors were the strongest predictors of influenza seasonality, including minimum temperature, hours of sunshine, and maximum rainfall. Our main study limitations include a short surveillance period and sparse influenza sampling in some of the southern provinces.

Conclusions

Regional-specific influenza vaccination strategies would be optimal in China; in particular, annual campaigns should be initiated 4–6 months apart in Northern and Southern China. Influenza surveillance should be strengthened in mid-latitude provinces, given the complexity of seasonal patterns in this region. More broadly, our findings are consistent with the role of climatic factors on influenza transmission dynamics. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Influenza Pneumonia Surveillance among Hospitalized Adults May Underestimate the Burden of Severe Influenza Disease

Background

Studies seeking to estimate the burden of influenza among hospitalized adults often use case definitions that require presence of pneumonia. The goal of this study was to assess the extent to which restricting influenza testing to adults hospitalized with pneumonia could underestimate the total burden of hospitalized influenza disease.

Methods

We conducted a modelling study using the complete State Inpatient Databases from Arizona, California, and Washington and regional influenza surveillance data acquired from CDC from January 2003 through March 2009. The exposures of interest were positive laboratory tests for influenza A (H1N1), influenza A (H3N2), and influenza B from two contiguous US Federal Regions encompassing the study area. We identified the two outcomes of interest by ICD-9-CM code: respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations, as well as critical illness hospitalizations (acute respiratory failure, severe sepsis, and in-hospital death). We linked the hospitalization datasets with the virus surveillance datasets by geographic region and month of hospitalization. We used negative binomial regression models to estimate the number of influenza-associated events for the outcomes of interest. We sub-categorized these events to include all outcomes with or without pneumonia diagnosis codes.

Results

We estimated that there were 80,834 (95% CI 29,214–174,033) influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations and 26,760 (95% CI 14,541–47,464) influenza-associated critical illness hospitalizations. When a pneumonia diagnosis was excluded, the estimated number of influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations was 24,816 (95% CI 6,342–92,624). The estimated number of influenza-associated critical illness hospitalizations was 8,213 (95% CI 3,764–20,799). Around 30% of both influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations, as well as influenza-associated critical illness hospitalizations did not have pneumonia diagnosis codes.

Conclusions

Surveillance studies which only consider hospitalizations that include a diagnosis of pneumonia may underestimate the total burden of influenza hospitalizations.     

Prehypertension Is Not Associated with All-Cause Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies

Objectives

Quantitative associations between prehypertension or its two separate blood pressure (BP) ranges and cardiovascular disease (CVD) or all-cause mortality have not been reliably documented. In this study, we performed a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis to assess these relationships from prospective cohort studies.

Methods

We conducted a comprehensive search of PubMed (1966-June 2012) and the Cochrane Library (1988-June 2012) without language restrictions. This was supplemented by review of the references in the included studies and relevant reviews identified in the search. Prospective studies were included if they reported multivariate-adjusted relative risks (RRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of CVD or all-cause mortality with respect to prehypertension or its two BP ranges (low range: 120–129/80–84 mmHg; high range: 130–139/85–89 mmHg) at baseline. Pooled RRs were estimated using a random-effects model or a fixed-effects model depending on the between-study heterogeneity.

Results

Thirteen studies met our inclusion criteria, with 870,678 participants. Prehypertension was not associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality either in the whole prehypertension group (RR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.91 to 1.15, P = 0.667) or in its two separate BP ranges (low-range: RR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.81 to 1.02, P = 0.107; high range: RR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.06, P = 0.951). Prehypertension was significantly associated with a greater risk of CVD mortality (RR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.16 to 1.50, P<0.001). When analyzed separately by two BP ranges, only high range prehypertension was related to an increased risk of CVD mortality (low-range: RR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.30, P = 0.287; high range: RR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.41, P<0.001).

Conclusions

From the best available prospective data, prehypertension was not associated with all-cause mortality. More high quality cohort studies stratified by BP range are needed.     

Mortality amongst Patients with Influenza-Associated Severe Acute Respiratory Illness,South Africa, 2009-2013

Introduction

Data on the burden and risk groups for influenza-associated mortality from Africa are limited. We aimed to estimate the incidence and risk-factors for in-hospital influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) deaths.

Methods

Hospitalised patients with SARI were enrolled prospectively in four provinces of South Africa from 2009–2013. Using polymerase chain reaction, respiratory samples were tested for ten respiratory viruses and blood for pneumococcal DNA. The incidence of influenza-associated SARI deaths was estimated at one urban hospital with a defined catchment population.

Results

We enrolled 1376 patients with influenza-associated SARI and 3% (41 of 1358 with available outcome data) died. In patients with available HIV-status, the case-fatality proportion (CFP) was higher in HIV-infected (5%, 22/419) than HIV-uninfected individuals (2%, 13/620; p = 0.006). CFPs varied by age group, and generally increased with increasing age amongst individuals >5 years (p<0.001). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with death were age-group 45–64 years (odds ratio (OR) 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–16.3) and ≥65 years (OR 6.5, 95%CI 1.2–34.3) compared to 1–4 year age-group who had the lowest CFP, HIV-infection (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.1–7.8), underlying medical conditions other than HIV (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.2–7.3) and pneumococcal co-infection (OR 4.1, 95%CI 1.5–11.2). The estimated incidence of influenza-associated SARI deaths per 100,000 population was highest in children <1 year (20.1, 95%CI 12.1–31.3) and adults aged 45–64 years (10.4, 95%CI 8.4–12.9). Adjusting for age, the rate of death was 20-fold (95%CI 15.0–27.8) higher in HIV-infected individuals than HIV-uninfected individuals.

Conclusion

Influenza causes substantial mortality in urban South Africa, particularly in infants aged <1 year and HIV-infected individuals. More widespread access to antiretroviral treatment and influenza vaccination may reduce this burden.     

Diabetes Mellitus and Risk of Bladder Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies

Background

Increasing evidence suggests that diabetes mellitus (DM) may be associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer. To provide a quantitative assessment of this association, we evaluated the relation between DM and incidence and mortality of bladder cancer in an updated meta-analysis of cohort studies. Methods We identified cohort studies by searching the EMBASE and MEDLINE databases, through 31 March 2012. Summary relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with random-effects models.

Results

A total of 29 cohort studies (27 articles) were included in this meta-analysis. DM was associated with an increased incidence of bladder cancer (RR 1.29, 95% CI: 1.08–1.54), with significant evidence of heterogeneity among these studies (p<0.001, I² = 94.9%). In stratified analysis, the RRs of bladder cancer were 1.36 (1.05–1.77) for diabetic men and 1.28 (0.75–2.19) for diabetic women, respectively. DM was also positively associated with bladder cancer mortality (RR 1.33, 95% CI: 1.14–1.55), with evident heterogeneity between studies (p = 0.002, I² = 63.3%). The positive association was observed for both men (RR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.30–1.82) and women (RR 1.50, 95% CI: 1.05–2.14).

Conclusion

These findings suggest that compared to non-diabetic individuals, diabetic individuals have an increased incidence and mortality of bladder cancer.     

The Temporal Trend of Influenza-Associated Morbidity and the Impact of Early Appearance of Antigenic Drifted Strains in a Southeast Asian Country

Globally, influenza infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the elderly, who are suggested to be the major target group for trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) vaccination by World Health Organization. In spite of an increasing trend in vaccine coverage rates in many countries, the effect of vaccination among the elderly in reducing hospitalization and mortality remains controversial. In this study, we conducted a historical cohort study to evaluate the temporal pattern of influenza-associated morbidity among persons older than 64 years over a decade. The temporal patterns of influenza-associated morbidity rates among the elderly older than 64 years indicated that Taiwan''s elderly P&I outpatient visits have been decreasing since the beginning of the 1999–2000 influenza season; however, hospitalization has been increasing despite significant increases in vaccine coverage. The propensity score logistic regression model was implemented to evaluate the source of bias and it was found that the TIV-receiving group had a higher propensity score than the non-receiving group (P<0.0001). In order to investigate the major factors affecting the temporal pattern of influenza-associated morbidity, we then used the propensity score as a summary confounder in a multivariate Poisson regression model based on the trimmed data. Our final models suggested that the factors affected the temporal pattern of morbidity differently. The variables including co-morbidity, vaccination rate, influenza virus type A and B isolation rate were associated with increased outpatient visits and hospitalization (p<0.05). In contrast, variables including high propensity score, increased 1°C in temperature, matching vaccine strains of type A/H1N1 and type B were associated with decreased outpatient visits and hospitalization (p<0.05). Finally, we assessed the impact of early appearance of antigenic-drifted strains and concluded that an excess influenza-associated morbidity substantial trends toward higher P&I hospitalization, but not outpatient visits, during the influenza season with early appearance of antigenic-drifted strains.     

Effects of BMI,Fat Mass,and Lean Mass on Asthma in Childhood: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Background

Observational studies have reported associations between body mass index (BMI) and asthma, but confounding and reverse causality remain plausible explanations. We aim to investigate evidence for a causal effect of BMI on asthma using a Mendelian randomization approach.

Methods and Findings

We used Mendelian randomization to investigate causal effects of BMI, fat mass, and lean mass on current asthma at age 7½ y in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). A weighted allele score based on 32 independent BMI-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was derived from external data, and associations with BMI, fat mass, lean mass, and asthma were estimated. We derived instrumental variable (IV) estimates of causal risk ratios (RRs). 4,835 children had available data on BMI-associated SNPs, asthma, and BMI. The weighted allele score was strongly associated with BMI, fat mass, and lean mass (all p-values<0.001) and with childhood asthma (RR 2.56, 95% CI 1.38–4.76 per unit score, p = 0.003). The estimated causal RR for the effect of BMI on asthma was 1.55 (95% CI 1.16–2.07) per kg/m², p = 0.003. This effect appeared stronger for non-atopic (1.90, 95% CI 1.19–3.03) than for atopic asthma (1.37, 95% CI 0.89–2.11) though there was little evidence of heterogeneity (p = 0.31). The estimated causal RRs for the effects of fat mass and lean mass on asthma were 1.41 (95% CI 1.11–1.79) per 0.5 kg and 2.25 (95% CI 1.23–4.11) per kg, respectively. The possibility of genetic pleiotropy could not be discounted completely; however, additional IV analyses using FTO variant rs1558902 and the other BMI-related SNPs separately provided similar causal effects with wider confidence intervals. Loss of follow-up was unlikely to bias the estimated effects.

Conclusions

Higher BMI increases the risk of asthma in mid-childhood. Higher BMI may have contributed to the increase in asthma risk toward the end of the 20th century. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Impact of Influenza on Outpatient Visits,Hospitalizations, and Deaths by Using a Time Series Poisson Generalized Additive Model

Background

The disease burden associated with influenza in developing tropical and subtropical countries is poorly understood owing to the lack of a comprehensive disease surveillance system and information-exchange mechanisms. The impact of influenza on outpatient visits, hospital admissions, and deaths has not been fully demonstrated to date in south China.

Methods

A time series Poisson generalized additive model was used to quantitatively assess influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza disease burden by using influenza surveillance data in Zhuhai City from 2007 to 2009, combined with the outpatient, inpatient, and respiratory disease mortality data of the same period.

Results

The influenza activity in Zhuhai City demonstrated a typical subtropical seasonal pattern; however, each influenza virus subtype showed a specific transmission variation. The weekly ILI case number and virus isolation rate had a very close positive correlation (r = 0.774, P < 0.0001). The impact of ILI and influenza on weekly outpatient visits was statistically significant (P < 0.05). We determined that 10.7% of outpatient visits were associated with ILI and 1.88% were associated with influenza. ILI also had a significant influence on the hospitalization rates (P < 0.05), but mainly in populations <25 years of age. No statistically significant effect of influenza on hospital admissions was found (P > 0.05). The impact of ILI on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was most significant (P < 0.05), with 33.1% of COPD-related deaths being attributable to ILI. The impact of influenza on the mortality rate requires further evaluation.

Conclusions

ILI is a feasible indicator of influenza activity. Both ILI and influenza have a large impact on outpatient visits. Although ILI affects the number of hospital admissions and deaths, we found no consistent influence of influenza, which requires further assessment.     

Effect of Helicobacter pylori eradication on gastric precancerous lesions: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The question of whether eradication of Helicobacter pylori (Hp) can reverse gastric precancerous lesions, including intestinal metaplasia, remains uncertain, leading to ongoing debate. Therefore, a meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of Hp eradication on gastric precancerous lesions.

Materials and Methods

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus database, and ClinicalTrials.gov were systematically searched from inception to April 2023 for studies that explored the impact of Hp eradication on gastric precancerous lesions. Risk ratios (RRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were selected as the effect size. We used the random-effects model to assess pooled data. We also performed quality assessments, subgroup analyses, and sensitivity analyses.

Results

Fifteen studies were included. Compared with placebo, Hp eradication could significantly prevent the progression of gastric precancerous lesions (RR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.81–0.94, p < 0.01) and reverse them (RR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.17–1.50, p < 0.01). Then, specific precancerous lesions were further explored. The progression of intestinal metaplasia was significantly prevented by Hp eradication compared to placebo or no treatment (RR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.69–0.94, p < 0.01). Moreover, compared with placebo or no treatment, Hp eradication also improved chronic atrophic gastritis (RR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.30–2.61, p < 0.01) and intestinal metaplasia (RR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.15–1.73, p < 0.01). However, in terms of preventing dysplasia progression (RR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.37–2.00) and improving dysplasia (RR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.47–1.70), Hp eradication had no advantage compared to placebo or no treatment.

Conclusions

Hp eradication therapy could prevent the progression of gastric precancerous lesions and reverse them. Notably, intestinal metaplasia can be reversed, but this may only be appropriate for patients with epigenetic alterations and milder lesions.     

Epidemiological Trends of Traumatic Brain Injury Identified in the Emergency Department in a Publicly-Insured Population, 2002-2010

Objectives

To examine epidemiological trends of Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) treated in the Emergency Department (ED), identify demographic groups at risk of TBI, and determine the factors associated with hospitalization following an ED visit for TBI.

Methods

A province-wide database was used to identify all ED visits for TBI in Ontario, Canada between April 2002 and March 2010. Trends were analyzed using linear regression, and predictors of hospital admission were evaluated using logistic regression.

Results

There were 986,194 ED visits for TBI over the eight-year study period, resulting in 49,290 hospitalizations and 1,072 deaths. The age- and sex-adjusted rate of TBI decreased by 3%, from 1,013.9 per 100,000 (95% CI 1,008.3–1,010.6) to 979.1 per 100,000 (95% CI 973.7–984.4; p = 0.11). We found trends towards increasing age, comorbidity level, length of stay, and ambulatory transport use. Children and young adults (ages 5–24) sustained peak rates of motor vehicle crash (MVC) and bicyclist-related TBI, but also experienced the greatest decline in these rates (p = 0.003 and p = 0.005). In contrast, peak rates of fall-related TBI occurred among the youngest (ages 0–4) and oldest (ages 85+) segments of the population, but rates remained stable over time (p = 0.52 and 0.54). The 5–24 age group also sustained the highest rates of sports-related TBI but rates remained stable (p = 0.80). On multivariate analysis, the odds of hospital admission decreased by 1% for each year over the study period (OR = 0.991, 95% CI = 0.987–0.995). Increasing age and comorbidity, male sex, and ambulatory transport were significant predictors of hospital admission.

Conclusions

ED visits for TBI are involving older populations with increasingly complex comorbidities. While TBI rates are either stable or declining among vulnerable groups such as young drivers, youth athletes, and the elderly, these populations remain key targets for focused injury prevention and surveillance. Clinicians in the ED setting should be cognizant of factors associated with hospitalization following TBI.

Level of Evidence

III.

Study Design

Cross-sectional.     

Evaluation of coseasonality of influenza and invasive pneumococcal disease: results from prospective surveillance

Background

The wintertime co-occurrence of peaks in influenza and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is well documented, but how and whether wintertime peaks caused by these two pathogens are causally related is still uncertain. We aimed to investigate the relationship between influenza infection and IPD in Ontario, Canada, using several complementary methodological tools.

Methods and Findings

We evaluated a total number of 38,501 positive influenza tests in Central Ontario and 6,191 episodes of IPD in the Toronto/Peel area, Ontario, Canada, between 1 January 1995 and 3 October 2009, reported through population-based surveillance. We assessed the relationship between the seasonal wave forms for influenza and IPD using fast Fourier transforms in order to examine the relationship between these two pathogens over yearly timescales. We also used three complementary statistical methods (time-series methods, negative binomial regression, and case-crossover methods) to evaluate the short-term effect of influenza dynamics on pneumococcal risk. Annual periodicity with wintertime peaks could be demonstrated for IPD, whereas periodicity for influenza was less regular. As for long-term effects, phase and amplitude terms of pneumococcal and influenza seasonal sine waves were not correlated and meta-analysis confirmed significant heterogeneity of influenza, but not pneumococcal phase terms. In contrast, influenza was shown to Granger-cause pneumococcal disease. A short-term association between IPD and influenza could be demonstrated for 1-week lags in both case-crossover (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] for one case of IPD per 100 influenza cases  = 1.10 [1.02–1.18]) and negative binomial regression analysis (incidence rate ratio [95% confidence interval] for one case of IPD per 100 influenza cases  = 1.09 [1.05–1.14]).

Conclusions

Our data support the hypothesis that influenza influences bacterial disease incidence by enhancing short-term risk of invasion in colonized individuals. The absence of correlation between seasonal waveforms, on the other hand, suggests that bacterial disease transmission is affected to a lesser extent. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Association between the 2008–09 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine and Pandemic H1N1 Illness during Spring–Summer 2009: Four Observational Studies from Canada

Background

In late spring 2009, concern was raised in Canada that prior vaccination with the 2008–09 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) was associated with increased risk of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1) illness. Several epidemiologic investigations were conducted through the summer to assess this putative association.

Methods and Findings

Studies included: (1) test-negative case-control design based on Canada''s sentinel vaccine effectiveness monitoring system in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec; (2) conventional case-control design using population controls in Quebec; (3) test-negative case-control design in Ontario; and (4) prospective household transmission (cohort) study in Quebec. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios for TIV effect on community- or hospital-based laboratory-confirmed seasonal or pH1N1 influenza cases compared to controls with restriction, stratification, and adjustment for covariates including combinations of age, sex, comorbidity, timeliness of medical visit, prior physician visits, and/or health care worker (HCW) status. For the prospective study risk ratios were computed. Based on the sentinel study of 672 cases and 857 controls, 2008–09 TIV was associated with statistically significant protection against seasonal influenza (odds ratio 0.44, 95% CI 0.33–0.59). In contrast, estimates from the sentinel and three other observational studies, involving a total of 1,226 laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 cases and 1,505 controls, indicated that prior receipt of 2008–09 TIV was associated with increased risk of medically attended pH1N1 illness during the spring–summer 2009, with estimated risk or odds ratios ranging from 1.4 to 2.5. Risk of pH1N1 hospitalization was not further increased among vaccinated people when comparing hospitalized to community cases.

Conclusions

Prior receipt of 2008–09 TIV was associated with increased risk of medically attended pH1N1 illness during the spring–summer 2009 in Canada. The occurrence of bias (selection, information) or confounding cannot be ruled out. Further experimental and epidemiological assessment is warranted. Possible biological mechanisms and immunoepidemiologic implications are considered. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary