Density dependence and the spread of anthelmintic resistance

Variation in the strength of selection pressures acting upon different subpopulations may cause density-dependent regulatory processes to act differentially on particular genotypes and may influence the rate of selection of adaptive traits. Using host-helminth parasite systems as examples, we investigate the impact of different positive and negative density dependence on the potential spread of anthelmintic resistance. Following chemotherapy, the negative density-dependent processes restricting parasite population growth will be relaxed, increasing the genetic contribution of resistant parasites to the next generation. Simple deterministic models of directly transmitted nematodes that merge population dynamics and genetics show that the frequency of drug-resistant alleles may increase faster in species whose population size is down-regulated by density-dependent parasite fecundity than in species with density-dependent establishment or parasite mortality. A genetically structured population dynamics model of an indirectly transmitted nematode is used to highlight how population regulation will influence the resistance allele frequency in different parasite lifestages. Results indicate that surveys aimed at monitoring the evolution of drug resistance should consider carefully which life stage to sample, and the time following treatment samples should be collected. Anthelmintic resistance offers a good opportunity to apply fundamental evolutionary and ecological principles to the management of a potentially crucial public health problem.     

Interspecific competition among macroparasites in a density-dependent host population

 We analyze the dynamics of a community of macroparasite species that share the same host. Our work extends an earlier framework for a host species that would grow exponentially in the absence of parasitism, to one where an uninfected host population is regulated by factors other than parasites. The model consists of one differential equation for each parasite species and a single density-dependent nonlinear equation for the host. We assume that each parasite species has a negative binomial distribution within the host and there is zero covariance between the species (exploitation competition). New threshold conditions on model parameters for the coexistence and competitive exclusion of parasite species are derived via invadibility and stability analysis of corresponding equilibria. The main finding is that the community of parasite species coexisting at the stable equilibrium is obtained by ranking the species according t! o th e minimum host density H ^* above which a parasite species can grow when rare: the lower H ^* , the higher the competitive ability. We also show that ranking according to the basic reproduction number Q ₀ does not in general coincide with ranking according to H ^* . The second result is that the type of interaction between host and parasites is crucial in determining the competitive success of a parasite species, because frequency-dependent transmission of free-living stages enhances the invading ability of a parasite species while density-dependent transmission makes a parasite very sensitive to other competing species. Finally, we show that density dependence in the host population entails a simplification of the portrait of possible outcomes with respect to previous studies, because all the cases resulting in the exponential growth of host and parasite populations are eliminated.. Received: 24 June 1996 / Revised version: 28 April 1998     

Density-dependent effects in a parasitic nematode,Elaphostrongylus rangiferi,in the snnail intermediate host

Summary Density-dependent effects in Elaphostrongylus rangiferi, a parasitic nematode in the CNS and muscular system of reindeer, were studied in a laboratory population of the snail intermediate host, Arianta arbustorum. The rates in parasite growth, development and mortality were all affected by parasite density. The effects on growth and development were, however, much more marked, than the effect on mortality.All density-dependent rates were intensified by decreasing snail size, and by snail starvation. The snail host showed marked tissue reactions against infection, and the intensity of these reactions increased with increasing parasite density. The mechanism behind the observed density-dependent rates is discussed, and is tentatively concluded to be competition for nutritive substances in the host tissue.The importance of a density-dependent developmental rate in natural populations of this parasite is discussed, and it is hypothesized that this effect may counteract the strong temperature-dependent developmental rate of E. rangiferi In a more general context it is pointed out that density-dependent developmental rates, although common amongst animal populations, has been neglected in models of population dynamics. Developmental rates are usually represented by a constant time lag in such models, but should be treated as a density-dependent variable.     

Density-dependent immune responses against the gastrointestinal nematode Strongyloides ratti

Negative density-dependent effects on the fitness of parasite populations are an important force in their population dynamics. For the parasitic nematode Strongyloides ratti, density-dependent fitness effects require the rat host immune response. By analysis of both measurements of components of parasite fitness and of the host immune response to different doses of S. ratti infection, we have identified specific parts of the host immune response underlying the negative density-dependent effects on the fitness of S. ratti. The host immune response changes both qualitatively from an inflammatory Th1- to a Th2-type immune profile and the Th2-type response increases quantitatively, as the density of S. ratti infection increases. Parasite survivorship was significantly negatively related to the concentration of parasite-specific IgG(1) and IgA, whereas parasite fecundity was significantly negatively related to the concentration of IgA only.     

Heligmosomoides polygyrus (Nematoda): the dynamics of primary and repeated infection in outbred mice

The population dynamics of Heligmosomoides polygyrus were studied in outbred male MF1 mice subject either to primary or repeated experimental infection. Little variability in susceptibility was observed between mice, but heterogeneity increased with both duration and intensity of primary infection; this result indicates that there are differences in parasite survival between hosts. The rate of parasite-induced host mortality was 4 X 10(-4) per parasite per host per parasite lifespan. The mortality rates of male and female larvae during their development in the intestinal wall were estimated as 0.033 and 0.021 per parasite per day respectively, and estimates of the expected lifespans of the adult male and female parasites in primary infection of 11.22 and 9.92 weeks were obtained. Approximately 40% of female worms were observed in copula at any one time, although this proportion was significantly depressed in hosts harbouring fewer than 50 parasites and during the first four weeks of infection. Parasite fecundity was markedly age-dependent; each female worm produced approximately 31,000 eggs during its lifespan. No density dependence in either worm survival or fecundity in primary infection was apparent. The only detectable effect of worm density was in association with spatial distribution in the intestine; high levels of infection were associated with a posterior shift in the location of a proportion of the parasite population. Characterization of the dynamics of primary infection allowed predictions to be made about the expected dynamics of repeated infection. The comparison of predicted results and observed data revealed unequivocal epidemiological evidence for the density-dependent regulation of parasite population growth during repeated infection, affecting both parasite survival and parasite fecundity. The results also demonstrated the existence of two types of host individual in which the dynamics of repeated infection were markedly different. It is concluded that immunological differences between mice (possibly under genetic control) may be responsible for the observed effects; approximately 25% of MF1 mice seem unable to generate any protective immunity against H. polygyrus, whereas 75% become almost completely refractory to reinfection. This experimental system could be used for quantitative investigation of the impact of acquired immunity and genetic heterogeneity on helminth population dynamics. Both are of obvious relevance with respect to the control of infections of medical and veterinary significance.     

Population dynamic models of the spread of Wolbachia

Wolbachia are endosymbionts that are found in many insect species and can spread rapidly when introduced into a naive host population. Most Wolbachia spread when their infection frequency exceeds a threshold normally calculated using purely population genetic models. However, spread may also depend on the population dynamics of the insect host. We develop models to explore interactions between host population dynamics and Wolbachia infection frequency for an age-structured insect population regulated by larval density dependence. We first derive a new expression for the threshold frequency that extends existing theory to incorporate important details of the insect's life history. In the presence of immigration and emigration, the threshold also depends on the form of density-dependent regulation. We show how the type of immigration (constant or pulsed) and the temporal dynamics of the host population can strongly affect the spread of Wolbachia. The results help understand the natural dynamics of Wolbachia infections and aid the design of programs to introduce Wolbachia to control insects that are disease vectors or pests.     

Interactions between density-dependent processes, population dynamics and control of an invasive plant species, Tripleurospermum perforatum (scentless chamomile)

Tripleurospermum perforatum is an invasive weedy species which exhibits strong over-compensating density dependence. Interactions between density-dependent survival, probability of flowering and fecundity were modelled and their impact on the population dynamics were examined. When only fecundity was density-dependent, the dynamics were similar to those observed in the model containing all three density-dependent terms. Density-dependent survival was a stabilizing process when acting in combination with density-dependent fecundity and probability of flowering; removing density-dependent survival from the model produced two-point cycles. The addition of a seed bank was also stabilizing. Simulations of control strategies at different life-history stages indicated that full control would be difficult due to the strong over-compensating density dependence, with severe reductions in fecundity and late season survival necessary in order to reduce equilibrium seed density and biomass.     

Modelling density-dependent resistance in insect-pathogen interactions.

We consider a mathematical model for a host-pathogen interaction where the host population is split into two categories: those susceptible to disease and those resistant to disease. Since the model was motivated by studies on insect populations, we consider a discrete-time model to reflect the discrete generations which are common among insect species. Whether an individual is born susceptible or resistant to disease depends on the local population levels at the start of each generation. In particular, we are interested in the case where the fraction of resistant individuals in the population increases as the total population increases. This may be seen as a positive feedback mechanism since disease is the only population control imposed upon the system. Moreover, it reflects recent experimental observations from noctuid moth-baculovirus interactions that pathogen resistance may increase with larval density. We find that the inclusion of a resistant class can stabilise unstable host-pathogen interactions but there is greatest regulation when the fraction born resistant is density independent. Nonetheless, inclusion of density dependence can still allow intrinsically unstable host-pathogen dynamics to be stabilised provided that this effect is sufficiently small. Moreover, inclusion of density-dependent resistance to disease allows the system to give rise to bistable dynamics in which the final outcome is dictated by the initial conditions for the model system. This has implications for the management of agricultural pests using biocontrol agents-in particular, it is suggested that the propensity for density-dependent resistance be determined prior to such a biocontrol attempt in order to be sure that this will result in the prevention of pest outbreaks, rather than their facilitation. Finally we consider how the cost of resistance to disease affects model outcomes and discover that when there is no cost to resistance, the model predicts stable periodic outbreaks of the insect population. The results are interpreted ecologically and future avenues for research to address the shortfalls in the present model system are discussed.     

Importance of endogenous feedback controlling the long-term abundance of tropical mosquito species

Mosquitoes are a major vector for tropical diseases, so understanding aspects that modify their population dynamics is vital for their control and protecting human health. Maximising the efficiency of control strategies for reducing transmission risk requires as a first step the understanding of the intrinsic population dynamics of vectors. We fitted a set of density-dependent and density-independent models to the long-term time series of six tropical mosquito species from northern Australia. The models’ strength of evidence was assessed using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC _c ), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and jack-knifed cross-validation (C-V). Density dependence accounted for more than 99% of the model weight in all model-selection methods, with the Gompertz-logistic (Cushing model) being the best-supported model for all mosquito species (negative density feedback expressed even at low densities). The second-most abundant species, Aedes vigilax (a saline breeder), showed no spatial heterogeneity in its density-dependent response, but the remaining five species had different intrinsic growth rates across 11 study sites. Population densities of saline species were high only during the late dry to early wet season following the highest tides of the month or early flood rains when swamps were mostly saline, whereas those of freshwater species were highest during the mid-wet and mid-dry seasons. These findings demonstrate remarkably strong density dependence in mosquito populations, but also suggest that environmental drivers, such as rainfall and tides, are important in modifying seasonal densities. Neglecting to account for strong density feedback in tropical mosquito populations will clearly result in less effective control.     

Inter- and intra-specific patterns of density dependence and population size variability in Salmoniformes

Population dynamics are typically affected by a combination of density-independent and density-dependent factors, the latter of which have been conceptually and theoretically linked with how variable population sizes are over time—which in turn has been tied to how prone populations are to extinction. To address evidence for the occurrence of density dependence and its relationship with population size variability (pv), we quantified each of these for 126 populations of 8 species of Salmoniformes. Using random-effects models, we partitioned variation in the strength of density dependence and the magnitude of pv between and within species and estimated the correlation of density dependence and population size variability at both the between- and within-species levels. We found that variation in the strength of density dependence was predominately within species (I ² = 0.47). In contrast, variation in population size variability was distributed both between and within species (I ² = 0.40). Contrary to theoretical and conceptual expectations, the strength of density dependence and the magnitude of population size variability were positively correlated at the between species level (r = 0.90), although this estimate had 95 % credibility intervals (Bayesian analogues to confidence intervals) that overlapped zero. The within-species correlation between density dependence and population size variability was not distinguishable from zero. Given that density dependence for Salmoniformes was highly variable within species, we next determined the joint effects of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (density-independent) factors on the population dynamics of a threatened salmonid, the Lahontan cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi). We found that density-dependent and -independent factors additively contributed to population dynamics. This finding suggests that the observed within-species variability in density dependence might be attributable to local differences in the strength of density-independent factors.     

The effects of parasites on fish populations--theoretical aspects

This brief review has indicated how essential aspects of relevant epidemiological considerations may be included into models of fisheries. The main conclusions to emerge from the crude models outlined above are that the ability of a pathogen to establish itself is dependent upon the relative magnitudes of the threshold host density for parasite establishment, Ht, and the level of the host population density at its current level of exploitation H(E). If Ht is less than H(E), the parasite will always be able to establish itself. Disease prevalence would also seem to be roughly independent of the level of exploitation of the fishery, providing exploited population density is significantly higher than the threshold density for disease establishment.The complications introduced by the presence of disease will in general further increase the levels of uncertainty that fisheries managers have to contend with (Beddington, 1984). In cases where pathogens are having a serious impact on the fishery it would seem sensible to develop methods to quantify the impact of the parasite on the host (Lester, 1984). The simple models discussed here can, moreover, readily be extended to include other factors which can be important in determining management strategies for fisheries where parasites and disease are an important consideration. Three particularly important such considerations are: inclusion of age-structure and more realistic density-dependent recruitment functions in the host population (May, 1980); consideration of the immune response of the host to the parasite (Anderson &; May, 1979); and inclusion of environmental stockasticity (May, Beddington, Horwood &; Shepherd 1978; Ludwig &; Walters, 1981).     

Interaction between seasonal density-dependence structures and length of the seasons explain the geographical structure of the dynamics of voles in Hokkaido: an example of seasonal forcing

The grey-sided vole (Clethrionomys rufocanus) is distributed over the entire island of Hokkaido, Japan, across which it exhibits multi-annual density cycles in only parts of the island (the north-eastern part); in the remaining part of the island, only seasonal density changes occur. Using annual sampling of 189 grey-sided vole populations, we deduced the geographical structure in their second-order density dependence. Building upon our earlier suggestion, we deduce the seasonal density-dependent structure for these populations. Strong direct and delayed density dependence is found to occur during winter, whereas no density dependence is seen during the summer period. The direct density dependence during winter may be seen as a result of food being limited during that season: the delayed density dependence during the winter is consistent with vole-specialized predators (e.g. the least weasel) responding to vole densities so as to have a negative effect on the net growth rate of voles in the following year. We conclude that the observed geographical structure of the population dynamics may be properly seen as a result of the length of the summer in interaction with the differential seasonal density-dependent structure. Altogether, this indicates that the geographical pattern in multi-annual density dynamics in the grey-sided vole may be a result of seasonal forcing.     

Density-dependent vital rates and their population dynamic consequences

We explore a set of simple, nonlinear, two-stage models that allow us to compare the effects of density dependence on population dynamics among different kinds of life cycles. We characterize the behavior of these models in terms of their equilibria, bifurcations, and nonlinear dynamics, for a wide range of parameters. Our analyses lead to several generalizations about the effects of life history and density dependence on population dynamics. Among these are: (1) iteroparous life histories are more likely to be stable than semelparous life histories; (2) an increase in juvenile survivorship tends to be stabilizing; (3) density-dependent adult survival cannot control population growth when reproductive output is high; (4) density-dependent reproduction is more likely to cause chaotic dynamics than density dependence in other vital rates; and (5) changes in development rate have only small effects on bifurcation patterns. Received: 12 April 1999 / Published online: 3 August 2000     

A perfect storm: the combined effects on population fluctuations of autocorrelated environmental noise, age structure, and density dependence

While it is widely appreciated that climate can affect the population dynamics of various species, a mechanistic understanding of how climate interacts with life-history traits to influence population fluctuations requires development. Here we build a general density-dependent age-structured model that accounts for differential responses in life-history traits to increasing population density. We show that as the temporal frequency of favorable environmental conditions increases, population fluctuations also increase provided that unfavorable environmental conditions still occur. As good years accumulate and the number of individuals in a population increases, successive life-history traits become vulnerable to density dependence once a return to unfavorable conditions prevails. The stronger this ratcheting of density dependence in life-history traits by autocorrelated climatic conditions, the larger the population fluctuations become. Highly fecund species, and those in which density dependence occurs in juvenile and adult vital rates at similar densities, are most sensitive to increases in the frequency of favorable conditions. Understanding the influence of global warming on temporal correlation in regional environmental conditions will be important in identifying those species liable to exhibit increased population fluctuations that could lead to their extinction.     

On the capacity of macroparasites to control insect populations

A graphical model of the population dynamics of macroparasites and their hosts is developed. Three principal means by which the parasites can be regulated are considered: reduction in host density as a result of parasite-induced host mortality, reduction in host density as a result of parasite-induced host sterility, and competition among parasites within multiply-infected hosts. The means by which parasites are regulated has a major effect on the degree to which they can depress host population densities. In particular, a parasite that sterilizes its host is expected to reduce host density more than one that causes an equivalent decline in host fitness through increased mortality. A special case of the model is developed for herbivorous insects that, in the absence of parasites, are limited by larval food resources. Parasites that are regulated via parasite-induced host sterility will control the insect populations below the level set by larval resources if the threshold host density for the parasites (N(T)) is less than the ratio of carrying capacity to net reproductive rate of the insects (K/R). Data are presented showing that all three means of parasite regulation, but especially parasite-induced host sterility, can operate in Howardula aoronymphium, a nematode parasite of mycophagous Drosophila flies. Data from a field cage experiment show that, if these nematodes are regulated primarily via reductions in host density due to this sterility, the parameters N(T), K, and R are such that Howardula is likely to play an important role in controlling Drosophila populations. However, this conclusion must be tempered by the fact that these nematodes also cause increased host mortality and experience within-host competition, making the conditions for parasite control of the flies more stringent.     

An ecological law and its macroecological consequences as revealed by studies of relationships between host densities and parasite prevalence

Epidemiological models predict a positive relationship between host population density and abundance of macroparasites. Here I lest these by a comparative study. I used data on communities of four groups of parasites inhabiting the gastrointestinal tract of mammals, nematodes of the orders Oxyurida. Ascarida. Enoplida and Spirurida. respectively. The data came from 44 mammalian species and represent examination of 16886 individual hosts. I studied average prevalence of all nematodes within an order in a host species, a measure of community level abundance, and considered the potential confounding effects of host body weight, fecundity, age at maturity and diet. Host population density was positively correlated with parasite prevalence within the order Oxyurida, where all species have direct life cycles. Considering the effects of other variables did not change this. This supports the assumption that parasite transmission rate generally is a positive function of host population density_: It also strengthens the hypothesis that host densities generally act as important determinants of species richness among directly transmitted parasites and suggests that negative influence of such parasites on host population growth rate increase with increasing host population density among host species. Within the other three nematode orders, where a substantial number of the species have indirect life cycles, no relationships between prevalence and host population density were seen, Again. considering the effects of other variables did not affect this conclusion. This suggests that host population density is a poor predictor of species richness of indirectly transmitted parasites and that effects of such parasites on host population dynamics do not scale with host densities among species of hosts.     

Population dynamics of Thecodiplosis japonensis (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) under influence of parasitism by Inostemma matsutama and Inostemma seoulis (Hymenoptera: Platygastridae)

To understand influence of two species of parasitoids on host population dynamics, adult population dynamics of pine needle gall midge (PNGM), Thecodiplosis japonensis and two species of parasitoids, Inostemma matsutama and Inostemma seoulis were observed using emergence traps from 1986 to 2005. Density of PNGM decreased after outbreaks in 1986 and 1987 and showed density-dependent regulation. Relationships between density of PNGM and its parasitoids were linear except the period of outbreak regardless of parasitoids species. Relationships between host density and parasitism of I. matsutama and I. seoulis were density-independent and inverse density-dependent, respectively. I. seoulis was the dominant parasitoid against PNGM. Interspecific competition between two parasitoids was not strong and temporal niche segregation between two parasitoids was a possible mechanism for coexistence of two parasitoids. The parasitoid complex responded to changes in host density more sensitively than single parasitoid species. These results suggested that two parasitoid can stabilize PNGM population density without strong negative effects on each species of parasitoids.     

Temporal changes in the strength of density-dependent mortality and growth in intertidal barnacles

1. In demographically open marine systems, the extent to which density-dependent processes in the benthic adult phase are required for population persistence is unclear. At one extreme, represented by the recruitment limitation hypothesis, larval supply may be insufficient for the total population size to reach a carrying capacity and density-independent mortality predominates. At the opposite extreme, populations are saturated and density-dependent mortality is sufficiently strong to reshape patterns established at settlement. 2. We examined temporal variation in the way density-independent and density-dependent mortality interact in a typical sessile marine benthic invertebrate, the acorn barnacle Semibalanus balanoides (L.), over a 2-year period. 3. Recruitment was manipulated at two high recruitment sites in north Wales, UK to produce recruit densities covering the range naturally found in this species. Following manipulation, fixed quadrats were monitored using digital photography and temporal changes in mortality and growth rate were examined. 4. Over a 2-year period there was a clear, spatially consistent, over-compensatory relationship between the density of recruits and adult abundance indicating strong density-dependent mortality. The strength of density dependence intensified with increasing recruitment. 5. Density-dependent mortality did not operate consistently over the study period. It only operated in the early part of the benthic phase, but the pattern of adult abundance generated was maintained throughout the whole 2-year period. Thus, early life-history processes dictated adult population abundance and dynamics. 6. Examination of the natural recruitment regime in the area of study indicated that both positive and negative effects of recruitment will occur over scales varying from kilometres to metres.     

Recruitment limitation: A theoretical perspective

Abstract A theoretical analysis of the concept of recruitment limitation leads to the conclusion that most populations should he regarded as jointly limited by recruitment and interactions between individuals after recruitment. The open nature of local marine systems does not permit avoidance of density-dependent interactions; it simply may make them more difficult to detect. Local populations consisting of settled organisms may not experience density-dependent interactions under some circumstances, but the entire species population consisting of the collection of local populations and their planktonic larvae must have density-dependent dynamics. Any local population of settled individuals can escape density dependence if sufficient density dependence occurs among planktonic larvae or within other local populations. Common conceptions of density dependence are too narrow, leading too often to the conclusion that it is absent from a system. It is equally wrong to expect that density-dependent interactions after settlement determine local population densities independently of recruitment. Special circumstances allowing density dependence to act strongly and quickly are needed before density dependence can neutralize the effects of recruitment. Recruitment limitation and density-dependent interactions therefore should not be regarded as alternatives but as jointly acting to determine the densities of marine benthic populations. Moreover, the interaction between fluctuating recruitment and density dependence is potentially the most interesting feature of recruitment limitation. For example, this interaction may be an important diversity-maintaining mechanism for marine systems.