Understanding the effect of landscape fragmentation and vegetation productivity on elephant habitat utilization in Amboseli ecosystem,Kenya

Understanding factors affecting the distribution of the African elephant is important for its conservation in increasingly human‐dominated savannah landscapes. However, understanding how landscape fragmentation and vegetation productivity affect elephant habitat utilization remains poorly understood. In this study, we tested whether landscape fragmentation and vegetation productivity explain elephant habitat utilization in the Amboseli ecosystem in Kenya. We used GPS (Global Positioning System) telemetry data from five elephants to quantify elephant habitat utilization. Habitat utilization was determined by calculating the time elephants spent within a unit area. We then used generalized additive models (GAMs) to model the relationship between time density and landscape fragmentation, as well as vegetation productivity. Results show that landscape fragmentation and vegetation productivity significantly (P < 0.05) explain elephant habitat utilization. A significant (P < 0.05) unimodal relationship between vegetation productivity and habitat utilization was observed. Results suggest that elephants spend much of their time in less fragmented landscapes of intermediate productivity.     

Extending geographically and temporally weighted regression to account for both spatiotemporal heterogeneity and seasonal variations in coastal seas

Space-time modelling has been successfully applied in numerous research projects and has been studied extensively in the field of geographical information science. However, the cyclical or seasonal variations in the temporal dimension of most spatiotemporal processes are rarely considered along with spatiotemporal nonstationarity. Seasonal variations are widespread and typical in marine environmental processes, and addressing both spatiotemporal heterogeneity and seasonal variations is particularly difficult in the turbid and optically complex coastal seas. By incorporating seasonal periodic effects into a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model, we proposed a geographically and cycle-temporally weighted regression (GcTWR) model. To test its performance, modelling of chlorophyll-a, known as an important indicator of the coastal environment, is performed using the in situ data collected from 2012 to 2016 in the coastal sea of Zhejiang Province, China. GcTWR is compared with global ordinary least squares (OLS), geographically weighted regression (GWR), cycle-temporally weighted regression (cTWR), and GTWR models. In the results, the GcTWR model decreases absolute errors by 89.74%, 79.77%, 76.60% and 29.83% relative to the OLS, GWR, cTWR, and GTWR models, and presents a higher R² (0.9274) than the GWR (0.5911), cTWR (0.6465), and GTWR (0.8721) models. The estimation results further confirm that the seasonal influences in coastal areas are much more significant than the interannual effects, which accordingly demonstrates that extending the GTWR model to handle both spatiotemporal heterogeneity and seasonal variations are meaningful. In addition, a novel 3D visualization method is proposed to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the estimation results.     

A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified.     

Predicting Greater Prairie-Chicken Lek Site Suitability to Inform Conservation Actions

The demands of a growing human population dictates that expansion of energy infrastructure, roads, and other development frequently takes place in native rangelands. Particularly, transmission lines and roads commonly divide rural landscapes and increase fragmentation. This has direct and indirect consequences on native wildlife that can be mitigated through thoughtful planning and proactive approaches to identifying areas of high conservation priority. We used nine years (2003–2011) of Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido) lek locations totaling 870 unique leks sites in Kansas and seven geographic information system (GIS) layers describing land cover, topography, and anthropogenic structures to model habitat suitability across the state. The models obtained had low omission rates (<0.18) and high area under the curve scores (AUC >0.81), indicating high model performance and reliability of predicted habitat suitability for Greater Prairie-Chickens. We found that elevation was the most influential in predicting lek locations, contributing three times more predictive power than any other variable. However, models were improved by the addition of land cover and anthropogenic features (transmission lines, roads, and oil and gas structures). Overall, our analysis provides a hierarchal understanding of Greater Prairie-Chicken habitat suitability that is broadly based on geomorphological features followed by land cover suitability. We found that when land features and vegetation cover are suitable for Greater Prairie-Chickens, fragmentation by anthropogenic sources such as roadways and transmission lines are a concern. Therefore, it is our recommendation that future human development in Kansas avoid areas that our models identified as highly suitable for Greater Prairie-Chickens and focus development on land cover types that are of lower conservation concern.     

Patterns and Variability of Projected Bioclimatic Habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980–2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2–29% and 0.04–10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010–2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910–2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios.     

Home Range,Movement, and Distribution Patterns of the Threatened Dragonfly Sympetrum depressiusculum (Odonata: Libellulidae): A Thousand Times Greater Territory to Protect?

Dragonflies are good indicators of environmental health and biodiversity. Most studies addressing dragonfly ecology have focused on the importance of aquatic habitats, while the value of surrounding terrestrial habitats has often been overlooked. However, species associated with temporary aquatic habitats must persist in terrestrial environments for long periods. Little is known about the importance of terrestrial habitat patches for dragonflies, or about other factors that initiate or influence dispersal behaviour. The aim of this study was to reveal the relationship between population dynamics of the threatened dragonfly species Sympetrum depressiusculum at its natal site and its dispersal behaviour or routine movements within its terrestrial home range. We used a mark–release–recapture method (marking 2,881 adults) and exuviae collection with the Jolly–Seber model and generalized linear models to analyse seasonal and spatial patterns of routine movement in a heterogeneous Central European landscape. Our results show that utilisation of terrestrial habitat patches by adult dragonflies is not random and may be relatively long term (approximately 3 mo). Adult dragonflies were present only in areas with dense vegetation that provided sufficient resources; the insects were absent from active agricultural patches (p = 0.019). These findings demonstrate that even a species tightly linked to its natal site utilises an area that is several orders of magnitude larger than the natal site. Therefore, negative trends in the occurrence of various dragonfly species may be associated not only with disturbances to their aquatic habitats, but also with changes in the surrounding terrestrial landscape.     

Seasonal habitat use and selection by grizzly bears in Northern British Columbia

We defined patterns of habitat use and selection by female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Besa-Prophet watershed of northern British Columbia. We fitted 13 adult females with Geographic Positioning System (GPS) radio-collars and monitored them between 2001 and 2004. We examined patterns of habitat selection by grizzly bears relative to topographical attributes and 3 potential surrogates of food availability: land-cover class, vegetation biomass or quality (as measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), and selection value for prey species themselves (moose [Alces alces], elk [Cervus elaphus], woodland caribou [Rangifer tarandus], Stone's sheep [Ovis dalli stonei]). Although vegetation biomass and quality, and selection values for prey were important in seasonal selection by some individual bears, land-cover class, elevation, aspect, and vegetation diversity most influenced patterns of habitat selection across grizzly bears, which rely on availability of plant foods and encounters with ungulate prey. Grizzly bears as a group avoided conifer stands and areas of low vegetation diversity, and selected for burned land-cover classes and high vegetation diversity across seasons. They also selected mid elevations from what was available within seasonal ranges. Quantifying relative use of different attributes helped place selection patterns within the context of the landscape. Grizzly bears used higher elevations (1,595 ± 31 m SE) in spring and lower elevations (1,436 ± 27 m) in fall; the range of average elevations used among individuals was highest (500 m) during the summer. During all seasons, grizzly bears most frequented aspects with high solar gain. Use was distributed across 10 land-cover classes and depended on season. Management and conservation actions must maintain a diverse habitat matrix distributed across a large elevational gradient to ensure persistence of grizzly bears as levels of human access increase in the northern Rocky Mountains. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Cicada nymphs dominate American black bear diet in a desert riparian area

American black bears are considered dependent on high‐elevation forests or other montane habitats in the drylands of western North America. Black bear sign, including that of cubs, was observed throughout the summers of 2015, 2016, and 2018 along a perennial desert river in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona. We analyzed the contents of 21 black bear scats, collected from May to October of 2016 and 2018. Apache cicada nymphs (Diceroprocta apache) were the dominant food item, occurring in 90% of scats and comprising an average of 59% of scat contents. In the process of excavating these nymphs, bears created large areas of turned‐over soil, a form of ecosystem engineering with potential implications for soils, vegetation, and fluvial geomorphology. Given that species distributions are shaped by physiological and ecological contexts, as well as anthropogenic legacies, it is possible that black bears once occurred more commonly in desert riparian systems prior to widespread agricultural development, hunting, and dewatering. Although more research is necessary, we suggest that desert riparian systems may be an alternative habitat for black bears. Better understanding the diet and habitat breadth of American black bears is important in the context of increasing landscape fragmentation and militarization in the U.S.‐Mexican borderlands.     

Mapping Current and Potential Distribution of Non-Native Prosopis juliflora in the Afar Region of Ethiopia

We used correlative models with species occurrence points, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, and topo-climatic predictors to map the current distribution and potential habitat of invasive Prosopis juliflora in Afar, Ethiopia. Time-series of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Indices (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) with 250 m² spatial resolution were selected as remote sensing predictors for mapping distributions, while WorldClim bioclimatic products and generated topographic variables from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission product (SRTM) were used to predict potential infestations. We ran Maxent models using non-correlated variables and the 143 species- occurrence points. Maxent generated probability surfaces were converted into binary maps using the 10-percentile logistic threshold values. Performances of models were evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results indicate that the extent of P. juliflora invasion is approximately 3,605 km² in the Afar region (AUC  = 0.94), while the potential habitat for future infestations is 5,024 km² (AUC  = 0.95). Our analyses demonstrate that time-series of MODIS vegetation indices and species occurrence points can be used with Maxent modeling software to map the current distribution of P. juliflora, while topo-climatic variables are good predictors of potential habitat in Ethiopia. Our results can quantify current and future infestations, and inform management and policy decisions for containing P. juliflora. Our methods can also be replicated for managing invasive species in other East African countries.     

Regional Scale High Resolution δ18O Prediction in Precipitation Using MODIS EVI

The natural variation in stable water isotope ratio data, also known as water isoscape, is a spatiotemporal fingerprint and a powerful natural tracer that has been widely applied in disciplines as diverse as hydrology, paleoclimatology, ecology and forensic investigation. Although much effort has been devoted to developing a predictive water isoscape model, it remains a central challenge for scientists to generate high accuracy, fine scale spatiotemporal water isoscape prediction. Here we develop a novel approach of using the MODIS-EVI (the Moderate Resolution Imagining Spectroradiometer-Enhanced Vegetation Index), to predict δ¹⁸O in precipitation at the regional scale. Using a structural equation model, we show that the EVI and precipitated δ¹⁸O are highly correlated and thus the EVI is a good predictor of precipitated δ¹⁸O. We then test the predictability of our EVI-δ¹⁸O model and demonstrate that our approach can provide high accuracy with fine spatial (250×250 m) and temporal (16 days) scale δ¹⁸O predictions (annual and monthly predictabilities [r] are 0.96 and 0.80, respectively). We conclude the merging of the EVI and δ¹⁸O in precipitation can greatly extend the spatial and temporal data availability and thus enhance the applicability for both the EVI and water isoscape.     

Increased isolation of two Biosphere Reserves and surrounding protected areas (WAP ecological complex, West Africa)

Protected areas such as nature reserves have been found to be effective in preventing habitat destruction and protecting ecosystems within their borders. Recent studies however found extensive loss of tropical forest habitat around protected areas, vastly contributing to increase the levels of ecological isolation. Using high-resolution satellite data we investigated the isolation trend occurring in the W-Arly-Pendjari (WAP) ecological complex in West Africa. A land-cover change analysis was performed for the period 1984–2002: savanna vegetation extension and loss were derived within the complex and in a 30 km peripheral buffer. Sample regions in the buffer were also analysed using selected spatial indicators to quantify temporal trends in habitat fragmentation. Implications for change in relative capacity to conserve biodiversity were discussed through the calculation of the species richness capacity (SRC). More than 14.5% of savanna habitat was lost in the WAP peripheral areas, while 0.3% was converted inside the complex. The degree of fragmentation of remnant savanna habitat has also drastically increased. Despite the effectiveness of the park conservation programme, we found through the SRC approach that the WAP complex is decreasing its potential capacity to conserve species richness. This process is mainly due to the rapid and extended agricultural expansion taking place around the complex. A better understanding of the ecological dynamics occurring in the peripheral regions of reserves and the consideration of development needs are key variables to achieve conservation goals in protected areas.     

Evaluating spatiotemporal dynamics of snakebite in Sri Lanka: Monthly incidence mapping from a national representative survey sample

BackgroundSnakebite incidence shows both spatial and temporal variation. However, no study has evaluated spatiotemporal patterns of snakebites across a country or region in detail. We used a nationally representative population sample to evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka.MethodologyWe conducted a community-based cross-sectional survey representing all nine provinces of Sri Lanka. We interviewed 165 665 people (0.8% of the national population), and snakebite events reported by the respondents were recorded. Sri Lanka is an agricultural country; its central, southern and western parts receive rain mainly from Southwest monsoon (May to September) and northern and eastern parts receive rain mainly from Northeast monsoon (November to February). We developed spatiotemporal models using multivariate Poisson process modelling to explain monthly snakebite and envenoming incidences in the country. These models were developed at the provincial level to explain local spatiotemporal patterns.Principal findingsSnakebites and envenomings showed clear spatiotemporal patterns. Snakebite hotspots were found in North-Central, North-West, South-West and Eastern Sri Lanka. They exhibited biannual seasonal patterns except in South-Western inlands, which showed triannual seasonality. Envenoming hotspots were confined to North-Central, East and South-West parts of the country. Hotspots in North-Central regions showed triannual seasonal patterns and South-West regions had annual patterns. Hotspots remained persistent throughout the year in Eastern regions. The overall monthly snakebite and envenoming incidences in Sri Lanka were 39 (95%CI: 38–40) and 19 (95%CI: 13–30) per 100 000, respectively, translating into 110 000 (95%CI: 107 500–112 500) snakebites and 45 000 (95%CI: 32 000–73 000) envenomings in a calendar year.Conclusions/significanceThis study provides information on community-based monthly incidence of snakebites and envenomings over the whole country. Thus, it provides useful insights into healthcare decision-making, such as, prioritizing locations to establish specialized centres for snakebite management and allocating resources based on risk assessments which take into account both location and season.     

Demographic responses to climate‐driven variation in habitat quality across the annual cycle of a migratory bird species

The demography and dynamics of migratory bird populations depend on patterns of movement and habitat quality across the annual cycle. We leveraged archival GPS‐tagging data, climate data, remote‐sensed vegetation data, and bird‐banding data to better understand the dynamics of black‐headed grosbeak (Pheucticus melanocephalus) populations in two breeding regions, the coast and Central Valley of California (Coastal California) and the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Sierra Nevada), over 28 years (1992–2019). Drought conditions across the annual cycle and rainfall timing on the molting grounds influenced seasonal habitat characteristics, including vegetation greenness and phenology (maturity dates). We developed a novel integrated population model with population state informed by adult capture data, recruitment rates informed by age‐specific capture data and climate covariates, and survival rates informed by adult capture–mark–recapture data and climate covariates. Population size was relatively variable among years for Coastal California, where numbers of recruits and survivors were positively correlated, and years of population increase were largely driven by recruitment. In the Sierra Nevada, population size was more consistent and showed stronger evidence of population regulation (numbers of recruits and survivors negatively correlated). Neither region showed evidence of long‐term population trend. We found only weak support for most climate–demographic rate relationships. However, recruitment rates for the Coastal California region were higher when rainfall was relatively early on the molting grounds and when wintering grounds were relatively cool and wet. We suggest that our approach of integrating movement, climate, and demographic data within a novel modeling framework can provide a useful method for better understanding the dynamics of broadly distributed migratory species.     

Modeling Fence Location and Density at a Regional Scale for Use in Wildlife Management

Barbed and woven wire fences, common structures across western North America, act as impediments to wildlife movements. In particular, fencing influences pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) daily and seasonal movements, as well as modifying habitat selection. Because of fencing''s impacts to pronghorn and other wildlife, it is a potentially important factor in both wildlife movement and habitat selection models. At this time, no geospatial fencing data is available at regional scales. Consequently, we constructed a regional fence model using a series of land tenure assumptions for the Hi-Line region of northern Montana – an area consisting of 13 counties over 103,400 km². Randomized 3.2 km long transects (n = 738) on both paved and unpaved roads were driven to collect information on habitat, fence densities and fence type. Using GIS, we constructed a fence location and a density model incorporating ownership, size, neighboring parcels, township boundaries and roads. Local knowledge of land ownership and land use assisted in improving the final models. We predict there is greater than 263,300 km of fencing in the Hi-Line region, with a maximum density of 6.8 km of fencing per km² and mean density of 2.4 km of fencing per km². Using field data to assess model accuracy, Cohen''s Kappa was measured at 0.40. On-the-ground fence modification or removal could be prioritized by identifying high fence densities in critical wildlife areas such as pronghorn migratory pathways or sage grouse lekking habitat. Such novel fence data can assist wildlife and land managers to assess effects of anthropogenic features to wildlife at various scales; which in turn may help conserve declining grassland species and overall ecological functionality.     

Impacts of spruce budworm defoliation on the habitat of woodland caribou,moose, and their main predators

Forest logging has contributed to the decline of several woodland caribou populations by causing the fragmentation of mature coniferous stands. Such habitat alterations could be worsened by spruce budworm (SBW) outbreaks. Using 6201 vegetation plots from provincial inventories conducted after the last SBW outbreak (1968–1992) in boreal forests of Québec (Canada), we investigated the influence of SBW‐caused tree defoliation and mortality on understory vegetation layers relevant to woodland caribou and its main predators. We found a positive association between severe outbreaks and the cover of most groups of understory plant species, especially in stands that were dominated by balsam fir before the outbreak, where a high canopy openness particularly benefited relatively fast‐growing deciduous plants. Such increases in early successional vegetation could provide high‐quality forage for moose, which is likely to promote higher wolf densities and increase predation pressure on caribou. SBW outbreaks may thus negatively affect woodland caribou by increasing predation risk, the main factor limiting caribou populations in managed forests. For the near future, we recommend updating the criteria used to define critical caribou habitat to consider the potential impacts of spruce budworm defoliation.     

Habitat suitability and connectivity implications for the conservation of the Persian leopard along the Iran–Iraq border

Habitat fragmentation has major negative impacts on wildlife populations, and the connectivity could reduce these negative impacts. This study was conducted to assess habitat suitability and structural connectivity of the Persian leopard along the Iran–Iraq border (i.e., the Zagros Mountains) and compare the situation of identified core habitats and connectivity with existing conservation areas (CAs). An ensemble modeling approach resulting from five models was used to predict habitat suitability. To identify core habitats and corridors along the Iran–Iraq border, factorial least‐cost path analyses were applied. The results revealed that topographic roughness, distance to CAs, annual precipitation, vegetation/cropland density, and distance to rivers were the most influential variables for predicting the occurrence of the Persian leopard in the study area. By an estimated dispersal distance of 82 km (suggested by previous studies), three core habitats were identified (two cores in Iran and one core in Iraq). The largest cores were located in the south and the center of the study area, which had the highest connectivity priorities. The connectivity from these cores was maintained to the core within the Iraqi side. Only about one‐fifth of detected core habitats and relative corridors were protected by CAs in the study area. Detected core habitats and connectivity areas in this study could be an appropriate road map to accomplish the CAs network along the Iran–Iraq border regarding Persian leopard conservation. Establishing transboundary CAs, particularly in the core habitat located in the center of the study area, is strongly recommended to conserve existing large carnivores, including the Persian leopard.     

Habitat Availability Is a More Plausible Explanation than Insecticide Acute Toxicity for U.S. Grassland Bird Species Declines

Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) “grassland breeding” bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980–2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3–21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland habitats into existing agricultural landscapes.     

Effect of Landscape Structure on Species Diversity

The effects of habitat fragmentation and their implications for biodiversity is a central issue in conservation biology which still lacks an overall comprehension. There is not yet a clear consensus on how to quantify fragmentation even though it is quite common to couple the effects of habitat loss with habitat fragmentation on biodiversity. Here we address the spatial patterns of species distribution in fragmented landscapes, assuming a neutral community model. To build up the fragmented landscapes, we employ the fractional Brownian motion approach, which in turn permits us to tune the amount of habitat loss and degree of clumping of the landscape independently. The coupling between the neutral community model, here simulated by means of the coalescent method, and fractal neutral landscape models enables us to address how the species–area relationship changes as the spatial patterns of a landscape is varied. The species–area relationship is one of the most fundamental laws in ecology, considered as a central tool in conservation biology, and is used to predict species loss following habitat disturbances. Our simulation results indicate that the level of clumping has a major role in shaping the species–area relationship. For instance, more compact landscapes are more sensitive to the effects of habitat loss and speciation rate. Besides, the level of clumping determines the existence and extension of the power-law regime which is expected to hold at intermediate scales. The distributions of species abundance are strongly influenced by the degree of fragmentation. We also show that the first and second commonest species have approximately self-similar spatial distributions across scales, with the fractal dimensions of the support of the first and second commonest species being very robust to changes in the spatial patterns of the landscape.     

Interannual variability in species composition explained as seasonally entrained chaos

The species composition of plankton, insect and annual plant communities may vary markedly from year to year. Such interannual variability is usually thought to be driven by year-to-year variation in weather conditions. Here we examine an alternative explanation. We studied the effects of regular seasonal forcing on a multi-species predator–prey model consisting of phytoplankton and zooplankton species. The model predicts that interannual variability in species composition can easily arise without interannual variability in external conditions. Seasonal forcing increased the probability of chaos in our model communities, but squeezed these irregular species dynamics within the seasonal cycle. As a result, the population dynamics had a peculiar character. Consistent with long-term time series of natural plankton communities, seasonal variation led to a distinct seasonal succession of species, yet the species composition varied from year to year in an irregular fashion. Our results suggest that interannual variability in species composition is an intrinsic property of multi-species communities in seasonal environments.     

Interannual variation in food choice of white‐headed langur inhabiting limestone forests in Fusui,southwest Guangxi,China

Food habits are important factors in the adaptation of wild nonhuman primates. White‐headed langurs (Trachypithecus leucocephalus) are endemic to heavily fragmented limestone forests and adapt to unique living environments via flexible food selection strategies. In this study, we compared the dietary data for white‐headed langurs living in Chongzuo White‐headed Langur National Nature Reserve in 2013 and 2016 to evaluate interannual variations in diet. Our results indicated that young leaves were the main food source for langurs, accounting for 52.4% (SD 25.4%) and 65.2% (SD 22.4%) of their diet in 2013 and 2016, respectively. The pattern of plant part consumption was similar between the two years. The consumption of young leaves varied with the availability of young leaves, whereas the consumption of mature leaves was negatively correlated with young leaf availability. The consumption of plant species and diet diversity were higher in 2013 than in 2016. In both 2013 and 2016, although diet diversity varied with the consumption of mature leaves, it was negatively correlated with the consumption and availability of young leaves. Dietary interannual variation is likely to either be linked to phenological variations or indicate that white‐headed langurs have a flexible ecological adaptation coping with habitat fragmentation.