Testing for a trend in tumor prevalence rates: I. Nonlethal tumors

In the analysis of animal carcinogenicity studies, the standard survival-adjusted test for a dose-related trend in the prevalence of nonlethal tumors is the Hoel-Walburg test, which stratifies on age at death by grouping survival times into intervals. An alternative analysis assesses trend on the basis of the likelihood score test under a logistic model for the prevalence function, which adjusts for survival by including age at death as a continuous regression variable. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the test based on modeling the prevalence log-odds as a linear function of age is more powerful than the Hoel-Walburg test, regardless of the intervals used by the latter to stratify the data. Without incorporating a continuity correction, the size of each test often exceeds the nominal level, especially when the mortality patterns differ across dose groups. Corrected versions of the tests operate at conservative levels, where the degree of conservatism varies with the distribution of the data. When the mortality patterns for the dose groups are similar, both tests have essentially the same power to detect a trend in tumor prevalence rates. However, when mortality varies with dose, the logistic regression test with a linear age term is more powerful than the Hoel-Walburg test, and this gain in power increases as the dose-specific mortality patterns become more disparate.     

Weighted Logrank Testing Procedures for the Simple Tree Alternatives

Weighted logrank testing procedures for comparing r treatments with a control when some of the data are randomly censored are discussed. Four kinds of test statistics for the simple tree alternatives are considered. The weighted logrank statistics based on pairwise ranking scheme is proposed and the covariances of the test statistics are explicitly obtained. This class of test statistics can be viewed as the general statistics of constructing the test procedures for various order restricted alternatives by modifying weights. Four kinds of weighted logrank tests are illustrated with an example. Simulation studies are performed to compare the sizes and the powers of the considered tests with the other.     

Testing for differences in survival with delayed ascertainment

During the interim stages of most large-scale clinical trials, knowledge that a patient is alive or dead is usually not up-to-date. This is due to the pattern of patient visits to hospitals as well as the administrative set-up used by the study to obtain information on vital status. On a two-armed study, if the process of ascertaining vital status is not the same in both treatment groups, then the standard method of testing based on the logrank statistic may not be applicable. Instead, an ad hoc modification to the logrank test, which artificially truncates follow-up prior to the time of analysis, is often used. These approaches have not been formally addressed in the literature. In the early stages of a clinical trial, severe bias or loss of power may result. For this situation, we propose a class of test statistics that extends the usual class of U statistics. Asymptotic normality is derived by reformulating the statistics in terms of counting processes and employing the theory of U statistics along with martingale techniques. For early interim analyses, a numerical study indicates that the new tests can be more powerful than the current practice when differential ascertainment is present. To illustrate the potential loss of information when lagging follow-up to control for ascertainment delays, we reanalyze an AIDS clinical trial with the truncated logrank and the new statistics.     

Improved Logrank-Type Tests for Survival Data Using Adaptive Weights

Summary .  For testing for treatment effects with time-to-event data, the logrank test is the most popular choice and has some optimality properties under proportional hazards alternatives. It may also be combined with other tests when a range of nonproportional alternatives are entertained. We introduce some versatile tests that use adaptively weighted logrank statistics. The adaptive weights utilize the hazard ratio obtained by fitting the model of Yang and Prentice (2005,  Biometrika   92 , 1–17). Extensive numerical studies have been performed under proportional and nonproportional alternatives, with a wide range of hazard ratios patterns. These studies show that these new tests typically improve the tests they are designed to modify. In particular, the adaptively weighted logrank test maintains optimality at the proportional alternatives, while improving the power over a wide range of nonproportional alternatives. The new tests are illustrated in several real data examples.     

Associations between gene expressions in breast cancer and patient survival

We analyzed associations between gene expression in breast cancer and patient survival for 8024 genes from a previously published microarray data set. Analysis of survival, by using the logrank test, was performed automatically for each gene. After correcting for multiple testing, we identified 95 genes whose expression was significantly associated with patient survival. The independent prognostic value of the genes ranking the highest in univariate analysis, together with clinical parameters, was assessed by Cox multivariate regression analysis. The P-values from these logrank tests were also mapped to chromosomal positions and compared with previously reported amplicon regions. We used PubGene web tools to identify groups of genes that had co-occurred in the literature and whose expression patterns were associated with survival. Our analyses demonstrate the comprehensiveness of the microarray technology with respect to measuring gene expression and indicate that the technology may be used to screen for potential clinical markers.     

A qualitative discrepancy between censored data rank tests.

Two popular censored data rank tests were used to compare cancer incidence rates between dogs receiving bone marrow transplantation and control dogs. The logrank test gave a significance level of 0.01. In contrast, Gehan's generalized Wilcoxon test gave a significance level of 0.76. The statistics are displayed in a manner that shows how such contrasting significance levels can arise. The Gehan statistic is shown to be subject to a serious criticism that does not apply to other Wilcoxon generalizations. Further insight into the data is obtained using a time-dependent logrank test and the proportional hazards regression model.     

Sample size calculation for the combination test under nonproportional hazards

For sample size calculation in clinical trials with survival endpoints, the logrank test, which is the optimal method under the proportional hazard (PH) assumption, is predominantly used. In reality, the PH assumption may not hold. For example, in immuno-oncology trials, delayed treatment effects are often expected. The sample size without considering the potential violation of the PH assumption may lead to an underpowered study. In recent years, combination tests such as the maximum weighted logrank test have received great attention because of their robust performance in various hazards scenarios. In this paper, we propose a flexible simulation-free procedure to calculate the sample size using combination tests. The procedure extends the Lakatos' Markov model and allows for complex situations encountered in a clinical trial, like staggered entry, dropouts, etc. We evaluate the procedure using two maximum weighted logrank tests, one projection-type test, and three other commonly used tests under various hazards scenarios. The simulation studies show that the proposed method can achieve the target power for all compared tests in most scenarios. The combination tests exhibit robust performance under correct specification and misspecification scenarios and are highly recommended when the hazard-changing patterns are unknown beforehand. Finally, we demonstrate our method using two clinical trial examples and provide suggestions about the sample size calculations under nonproportional hazards.     

Age-adjusted exact trend tests in the event of rare occurrences

Preclinical animal carcinogenicity studies are usually concerned with testing the statistical significance of a dose-response relationship. When the response consists of a rare event such as the development of a certain type of tumor, exact statistical methods are often employed. The exact randomization trend test based on the multivariate hypergeometric distribution is less powerful in the presence of treatment-related risks other than the specified response. Particularly, the loss of power becomes more pronounced when competing risks cause progressively higher mortality rates with increasing dose, which is usual in practice. An age-adjusted form of the randomization test is proposed to adjust for this effect. Permutational distribution for Peto's cause-of-death (COD) test is also explored and compared with its asymptotic counterpart by simulation. The use of COD information has been a controversial issue due to the subjectivity in the pathologists' determinations as well as for economic reasons. The proposed age-adjusted exact test does not require COD, and it is shown to compare favorably to the COD tests via an extensive Monte Carlo simulation. Applications of the methods to two real data sets are included.     

A comparison of cryodestruction with excision or infarction of an implanted tumor in rat liver

In this study a malignant tumor was implanted in rat livers and treated by infarction, excision, or cryodestruction. Survival and the pattern of metastases was studied in each group. Walker carcinomas were induced by the inoculation of a tumor cell suspension into the livers of male Sprague-Dawley rats. Ten days after inoculation a solitary tumor had formed. This was treated by (i) mobilization of the tumor-bearing lobe (controls); (ii) ischemic infarction by ligation of the vascular pedicle to the lobe; (iii) excision of the tumor-bearing lobe; or (iv) cryodestruction of the tumor and surrounding liver using a clinical liquid nitrogen probe. A double freeze/thaw cycle to - 180 degrees C at a mean cooling rate of 94 degrees C/min was performed. Autopsy was performed at death or after 110 days, when the experiment was terminated. In general, deaths within 5 weeks of treatment were from recurrent tumor growth in the liver and, after this time, from metastatic disease. A statistically significant increase in survival was noted in the cryotherapy group when compared with the other treatment groups (P less than 0.01 logrank ) and controls (P less than 0.001 logrank ). No real difference in local tumor control was noted between the groups. The improved survival in the cryotherapy group was attributed to a statistically significant reduction in deaths from metastatic disease (P less than 0.05 Chi-square). This finding may be related to an immunological response and warrants further study.     

Effects of spring imidacloprid application for white grub control on parasitism of Japanese beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) by Tiphia vernalis (Hymenoptera: Tiphiidae)

Imidacloprid, a relatively long residual neonicotinoid soil insecticide, is often applied to lawns and golf courses in spring for preventive control of root-feeding white grubs. We evaluated effects of such applications on spring parasitism of the overwintered third-instar Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica Newman, by Tiphia vernalis Rohwer, an introduced solitary ectoparasitoid. Natural rates of parasitism on a golf course rough were significantly lower in plots treated with full or one-half label rates of imidacloprid in early May compared with untreated turf. Parasitism also was reduced when female T. vernalis were exposed to imidacloprid residues on turf cores in the laboratory. Such exposures did not affect wasp mortality, longevity, survival, or developmental period of Tiphia larvae feeding on hosts in treated turf. They did, however, reduce wasps' ability to parasitize hosts in nontreated soil for at least 1-2 wk postexposure. In Y-trail choice tests, wasps that previously had been exposed to treated turf failed to respond normally to host frass trails in the soil. Female wasps did not avoid imidacloprid residues, imidacloprid-treated host frass, or host grubs that had previously been exposed to treated soil. This study indicates that applying imidacloprid in early spring can interfere with biological control by T. vernalis, whereas postponing preventive grub treatments until June or July, after the wasps' flight period, will help to conserve T. vernalis populations.     

Implementation of group sequential logrank tests in a maximum duration trial

To control the Type I error probability in a group sequential procedure using the logrank test, it is important to know the information times (fractions) at the times of interim analyses conducted for purposes of data monitoring. For the logrank test, the information time at an interim analysis is the fraction of the total number of events to be accrued in the entire trial. In a maximum information trial design, the trial is concluded when a prespecified total number of events has been accrued. For such a design, therefore, the information time at each interim analysis is known. However, many trials are designed to accrue data over a fixed duration of follow-up on a specified number of patients. This is termed a maximum duration trial design. Under such a design, the total number of events to be accrued is unknown at the time of an interim analysis. For a maximum duration trial design, therefore, these information times need to be estimated. A common practice is to assume that a fixed fraction of information will be accrued between any two consecutive interim analyses, and then employ a Pocock or O'Brien-Fleming boundary. In this article, we describe an estimate of the information time based on the fraction of total patient exposure, which tends to be slightly negatively biased (i.e., conservative) if survival is exponentially distributed. We then present a numerical exploration of the robustness of this estimate when nonexponential survival applies. We also show that the Lan-DeMets (1983, Biometrika 70, 659-663) procedure for constructing group sequential boundaries with the desired level of Type I error control can be computed using the estimated information fraction, even though it may be biased. Finally, we discuss the implications of employing a biased estimate of study information for a group sequential procedure.     

Crickets increase sexual signalling and sperm protection but live shorter in the presence of rivals

The sociosexual environment animals experience through their life can shape the evolution of key life history traits, including longevity. Male–male competition, for instance, may influence the resources allocated to traits involved in male reproductive success. Here, I test whether lifelong exposure to a competitor male influences male investment in pre‐ and post‐copulatory sexual traits (calling effort and sperm quality) and how this affected the oxidative status and longevity of male field crickets (Gryllus bimaculatus). As expected, the visual exposure to a mating competitor promoted a higher calling effort in the male crickets but resulted in a decline in the haemolymph antioxidant content. The haemolymph antioxidant content negatively covaried with the antioxidant content of the sperm but interestingly, only when the males were exposed to a competitor. This suggests that when mating competition is high, males may prioritize sperm antioxidant protection against somatic maintenance. Finally, I provide evidence that male–male competition imposes additional costs to reproduction, as males exposed to a mating competitor lost a significant proportion of body antioxidant defences and body mass over time and in long term, had a reduced lifespan. Overall, this study strongly suggests that intrasexual competition may impose additional oxidative costs during reproduction for males, with negative consequences on lifespan. Moreover, the results highlight the role of oxidative stress as a physiological mechanism underlying the trade‐off between reproduction‐longevity and through which sexual selection may contribute to the evolution of senescence patterns.     

Effect of Bacillus thuringiensis cry3Bb1 protein on the feeding behavior and longevity of adult western corn rootworms (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

The first transgenic corn hybrids expressing the Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) Cry3Bb1 protein to control corn rootworm (Diabrotica spp.) larvae were registered for commercial use in 2003. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of Cry3Bb1 protein in combination with a cucurbitacin bait on adult feeding and longevity of both organophosphate-resistant and -susceptible western corn rootworms, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). In choice and no-choice tests, possible repellency to the Bt protein was quantified by comparing beetle consumption of cellulose disks treated with three concentrations of Bt in combination with a feeding stimulant (Invite EC) to disks treated with stimulant alone. A lethal-time assay also was conducted to examine survival of beetles exposed to Bt protein in their diet. Results from these assays indicate that adult rootworms are not significantly deterred by the presence of Cry3Bb1 on the treated discs and that ingestion of toxin does not adversely affect adult longevity.     

Cytogenetic effects of extremely low frequency magnetic field on Wistar rat bone marrow

In this study, the genotoxic and cytotoxic potential of extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF) was investigated in Wistar rat tibial bone marrow cells, using the chromosomal aberration (CA) and micronucleus (MN) test systems. In addition to these test systems, we also investigated the mitotic index (MI), and the ratio of polychromatic erythrocytes (PCEs) to normochromatic erythrocytes (NCEs). Wistar rats were exposed to acute (1 day for 4h) and long-term (4h/day for 45 days) to a horizontal 50Hz, 1mT uniform magnetic field generated by a Helmholtz coil system. Mitomycin C (MMC, 2mg/kg BW) was used as positive control. Results obtained by chromosome analysis do not show any statistically significant differences between the negative control and both acute and long-term ELF-MF exposed samples. When comparing the group mean CA of long-term exposure with the negative control and acute exposure, the group mean of the long-term exposed group was higher, but this was not statistically significant. However, the mean micronucleus frequency of the longer-term exposed group was considerably higher than the negative control and acutely exposed groups. This difference was statistically significant (p<0.01). The results of the MI in bone marrow showed that the averages of both A-MF and L-MF groups significantly decreased when compared to those in the negative control (p<0.001 and p<0.01, respectively). No significant differences were found between the group mean MI of A-MF exposure with L-MF. We found that the average of PCEs/NCEs ratios of A-MF exposed group was significantly lower than the negative control and L-MF exposed groups (p<0.001 and p<0.01, respectively). In addition, the group mean of the PCEs/NCEs ratios of L-MF was significantly lower than negative control (p<0.01). We also found that the MMC treated group showed higher the number of CA and the frequency of MN formation when compared to those in all other each groups (p-values of all each groups <0.01) and also MMC treated group showed lower MI and the PCEs/NCEs ratios when compared to those in all other each groups (p-values of all groups <0.01). These observations indicate the in vivo suspectibility of mammals to the genotoxicity potential of ELF-MF.     

Non-random association of opsin alleles in wild groups of red-bellied tamarins (Saguinus labiatus) and maintenance of the colour vision polymorphism

The remarkable X-linked colour vision polymorphism observed in many New World primates is thought to be maintained by balancing selection. Behavioural tests support a hypothesis of heterozygote advantage, as heterozygous females (with trichromatic vision) exhibit foraging benefits over homozygous females and males (with dichromatic vision) when detecting ripe fruit on a background of leaves. Whilst most studies to date have examined the functional relevance of polymorphic colour vision in the context of foraging behaviour, alternative hypotheses proposed to explain the polymorphism have remained unexplored. In this study we examine colour vision polymorphism, social group composition and breeding success in wild red-bellied tamarins Saguinus labiatus. We find that the association of males and females within tamarin social groups is non-random with respect to colour vision genotype, with identified mating partners having the greatest allelic diversity. The observed distribution of alleles may be driven by inbreeding avoidance and implies an important new mechanism for maintaining colour vision polymorphism. This study also provides the first preliminary evidence that wild trichromatic females may have increased fitness compared with dichromatic counterparts, as measured by breeding success and longevity.     

Acid-base balance and lactatemia in acute hypoxia in normoxic or hypoxic albino rats

Albino rats Wistar family were raised since birth in normobaric hypoxic environment (10% O2 in N2). This hypoxic animal group and a normoxic control group were subjected to acute hypoxia in two spaced tests. The rats were exposed for 15 minutes to 7% O2 and later to 5% O2 gas mixture. At the end of the test with 7% O2 the hypoxic animals since birth showed a smaller quantity of blood lactate and their acid-base balance was more acid when compared to control animals. These differences were significant. In the considered metabolic parameters the differences between the 2 groups became not significant at the end of the test with 5% O2. We believe that the found differences in mentioned parameters between hypoxic and normoxic animals, also according to cellular adaptative processes, occurred during the rearing in hypoxic environment. In the test with 5% O2 the seriousness of the hypoxia overcomes the effects of adaptative mechanisms in hypoxic animals since birth. We believe that hypoxic rats since birth represent, limitedly to some aspects, different metabolic models compared to normoxic animals.     

For better or worse: reduced adult lifespan following early-life stress is transmitted to breeding partners

Stressful conditions early in life can give rise to exaggerated stress responses, which, while beneficial in the short term, chronically increase lifetime exposure to stress hormones and elevate disease risk later in life. Using zebra finches Taeniopygia guttata, we show here that individuals whose glucocorticoid stress hormones were experimentally increased for only a brief period in early post-natal life, inducing increased stress sensitivity, had reduced adult lifespans. Remarkably, the breeding partners of such exposed individuals also died at a younger age. This negative effect on partner longevity was the same for both sexes; it occurred irrespective of the partner's own early stress exposure and was in addition to any longevity reduction arising from this. Furthermore, this partner effect continued even after the breeding partnership was terminated. Only 5 per cent of control birds with control partners had died after 3 years, compared with over 40 per cent in early stress-early stress pairs. In contrast, reproductive capability appeared unaffected by the early stress treatment, even when breeding in stressful environmental circumstances. Our results clearly show that increased exposure to glucocorticoids early in life can markedly reduce adult life expectancy, and that pairing with such exposed partners carries an additional and substantial lifespan penalty.     

Psychophysiological tests and provocation of subjects with mobile phone related symptoms

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of exposure to a mobile phone-like radiofrequency (RF) electromagnetic field on persons experiencing subjective symptoms when using mobile phones (MP). Twenty subjects with MP-related symptoms were recruited and matched with 20 controls without MP-related symptoms. Each subject participated in two experimental sessions, one with true exposure and one with sham exposure, in random order. In the true exposure condition, the test subjects were exposed for 30 min to an RF field generating a maximum SAR(1g) in the head of 1 W/kg through an indoor base station antenna attached to a 900 MHz GSM MP. The following physiological and cognitive parameters were measured during the experiment: heart rate and heart rate variability (HRV), respiration, local blood flow, electrodermal activity, critical flicker fusion threshold (CFFT), short-term memory, and reaction time. No significant differences related to RF exposure conditions were detected. Also no differences in baseline data were found between subject groups, except for the reaction time, which was significantly longer among the cases than among the controls the first time the test was performed. This difference disappeared when the test was repeated. However, the cases differed significantly from the controls with respect to HRV as measured in the frequency domain. The cases displayed a shift in low/high frequency ratio towards a sympathetic dominance in the autonomous nervous system during the CFFT and memory tests, regardless of exposure condition. This might be interpreted as a sign of differences in the autonomous nervous system regulation between persons with MP related subjective symptoms and persons with no such symptoms.     

Sister chromatid exchanges and micronuclei analysis in lymphocytes of men exposed to simazine through drinking water

In some cities of the autonomous community of Extremadura (south-west of Spain), levels of simazine from 10 to 30 ppm were detected in tap water. To analyse the possible effect of this herbicide, two biomarkers, sister chromatid exchanges (SCE) and micronuclei (MN), were used in peripheral blood lymphocytes from males exposed to simazine through drinking water. SCE and MN analysis failed to detect any statistically significant increase in the people exposed to simazine when compared with the controls. With respect to high frequency cells (HFC), a statistically significant difference was detected between exposed and control groups.     

Proactive and retroactive interference in implicit odor memory

To test the hypothesis that longevity of odor memory is due to strong proactive interference (reduction of new learning by prior learning) and to absence of retroactive interference (reduction of prior memory by new learning), subjects, matched in age and gender with those of a previous experiment, were unknowingly exposed in two sessions to the weak concentrations of lavender or orange used before. Implicit odor memory was later tested in a separate experiment. Comparison of the results with those of the previous experiment showed that both proactive and retroactive interference occurred. These results have implications for the general theory about implicit memory for new associations, which may have to be amended when non-verbal material is used. The longevity of odor memory should be explained by the improbability of occurrence of incidences that provoke retroactive interference rather than by the absence of the retroactive interference itself.