El Niño and tree growth near Jerusalem over the last 20 years

A strong correlation is observed between an El Niño index (anomalies in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature) and rainfall in the Judean foothills near Jerusalem over the past 20 years. These relationships clearly influenced the growth of local pine trees, as reflected in the width of their annual tree rings. The ability to predict El Niño events about a year in advance lend a special significance to relationships reported here for ecology, agriculture and water management in this climatic transition zone. To help explain the observed, long-range teleconnection we propose a possible mechanism based on a newly identified direct cloud connection between equatorial Africa (more directly affected by El Niño) and the Southeastern Mediterranean shoreland. The penetration and contribution of the moisture current from equatorial Africa to this region may depend on a shift in the usual rain generating moisture currents to southwesterly trajectories (passing over north Africa). The occurrence of such shifts is supported by the observed decrease in the mean ¹⁸O content of the local precipitation during El Nino winters.     

Changes in forest fragment sizes and primate population trends along the River Tana floodplain, Kenya

The Tana River forest patches significantly decreased in total area by 1875 ha (34.5%), from 5439 to 3564 ha between 1979 and 2000. The area covered by forests outside the Tana River Primate National Reserve declined by 1246 ha (38%) from 3283 to 2037 ha. This loss was higher than that inside the reserve, where total forest area reduced by 629 ha (29%) from 2156 to 1527 ha. The numbers of Tana River red colobus (Procolobus rufomitratus) and Tana crested mangabey (Cercocebus galeritus galeritus) groups were significantly correlated with forest sizes suggesting that both red colobus and crested mangabeys are likely to be affected by forest loss and fragmentation. However, comparison of the 1974/75 and 2001 census data did not reveal any significant change in the number of groups of either the red colobus or crested mangabey. The two endangered primates may have developed strategies to cope with a shrinking habitat.     

Teleconnection between tree growth in the Amazonian floodplains and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation effect

There is a limited knowledge about the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on the Amazon basin, the world's largest tropical rain forest and a major factor in the global carbon cycle. Seasonal precipitation in the Andean watershed annually causes a several month‐long inundation of the floodplains along the Amazon River that induces the formation of annual rings in trees of the flooded forests. Radial growth of trees is mainly restricted to the nonflooded period and thus the ring width corresponds to its duration. This allows the construction of a tree‐ring chronology of the long‐living hardwood species Piranhea trifoliata Baill. (Euphorbiaceae). El Niño causes anomalously low precipitation in the catchment that results in a significantly lower water discharge of the Amazon River and consequently in an extension of the vegetation period. In those years tree rings are significantly wider. Thus the tree‐ring record can be considered as a robust indicator reflecting the mean climate conditions of the whole Western Amazon basin. We present a more than 200‐year long chronology, which is the first ENSO‐sensitive dendroclimatic proxy of the Amazon basin and permits the dating of preinstrumental El Niño events. Time series analyses of our data indicate that during the last two centuries the severity of El Niño increased significantly.     

Population Sizes and Distribution of Primates in the Lower Tana River Forests,Kenya

We studied the population size and distribution of diurnal primates in the lower Tana River forests, Kenya. They are the only remaining habitats for 2 threatened primates: the Tana River red colobus (Procolobus rufomitratus) and the Tana River crested mangabey (Cercocebus galeritus galeritus). We conducted censuses in 73 forest patches from January through March 2001. We estimate population size of the red colobus to be 788 individuals in 82 groups and that of the crested mangabeys to be 2,070 individuals in 59 groups. The data suggest that over a 7-year period (1994-2001), there was an 18% increase in the crested mangabey population and a 5% decline in red colobus numbers. Further, the red colobus range has expanded both north and south, whereas that of crested mangabeys has only expanded south. Fifty-six percent of crested mangabeys and 46% of red colobus groups were inside the Tana River Primate National Reserve (TRPNR). Other primates encountered included 170 groups of Sykes' monkeys (Cercopithecus mitis), 70 groups of yellow baboons (Papio cynocephalus) and 4 groups of grivets [Chlorocebus (Cercopithecus) aethiops]. Mean group densities of the 2 endangered primates and of baboons were higher inside than outside the TRPNR, reinforcing the importance of TRPNR for their conservation. An intervention program is required to stem further decline in the red colobus population and to protect small isolated groups in forest patches outside TRPNR.     

Spatial and temporal woodland patterns along the lower Turkwel River, Kenya

Spatial and temporal patterns of riverine woodlands in arid regions of Africa are poorly documented despite their considerable conservation value. We studied 1540 ha of riverine woodland in the lower Turkwel River floodplain, Kenya, between 1990 and 1998. Forty‐one woodland patches were mapped and their soil physical and chemical characteristics, tree species diversity, woody cover, tree density, wood volume and woodland regeneration were determined. The riverine woodland comprised nine vegetation types and a total of 14 woody species. Woodland patch mosaics were associated with microtopographical features and selected soil attributes. The most important woody species were Hyphaene compressa H. Wendl., Acacia tortilis (Forssk.) Hayne and Cadaba rotundifolia Forssk. The exotic Prosopis chilensis (Mol.) St. was invading parts of the riverine woodland. Overall, woody species diversity was low compared to similar riverine woodlands in East Africa. Tree density, wood volume and woody plant regeneration declined over the 8‐year study period, while woody cover was unchanged. Reduced tree density, wood volume and regeneration of woody species might be linked to changes in river flood patterns following the impoundment of the Turkwel Gorge Dam. It is suggested that spatially heterogeneous and temporally stochastic regeneration events, together with occasional tree mortality caused by channel abandonment, create the complex pattern of woodland patches in the lower Turkwel River floodplain. The mapped woodland patches may serve as monitoring units, which in future could reveal the interplay between changes in flooding patterns as a result of dam impoundment, anthropogenic disturbance and the well‐being of the riverine woodlands.     

Modeling the effects of El Niño, density-dependence, and disturbance on harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) counts in Drakes Estero, California: 1997–2007

Harbor seal ( Phoca vitulina ) haul-out site use may be affected by natural or anthropogenic factors. Here, we use an 11-yr (1997–2007) study of a seal colony located near a mariculture operation in Drakes Estero, California, to test for natural (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), density-dependence, long-term trends) and anthropogenic (disturbance or displacement related to oyster production activities) factors that may influence the use of haul-out subsites. Annual mariculture related seal disturbance rates increased significantly with increases in oyster harvest ( r _s= 0.55). Using generalized linear models (GLMs) ranked by best fit and Akaike's Information Criteria, ENSO and oyster production (as a proxy for disturbance/displacement) best explained the patterns of seal use at all three subsites near the mariculture operations, with effects being stronger at the two subsites closest to operations. Conversely, density-dependence and linear trend effects poorly explained the counts at these subsites. We conclude that a combination of ENSO and mariculture activities best explain the patterns of seal haul-out use during the breeding/pupping season at the seal haul-out sites closest to oyster activities.     

Influences of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on avian productivity in forests of the Pacific Northwest of North America

To model the effects of global climate phenomena on avian population dynamics, we must identify and quantify the spatial and temporal relationships between climate, weather and bird populations. Previous studies show that in Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences winter and spring weather that in turn affects resident and migratory landbird species. Similarly, in North America, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of the Pacific Ocean reportedly drives weather patterns that affect prey availability and population dynamics of landbird species which winter in the Caribbean. Here we show that ENSO‐ and NAO‐induced seasonal weather conditions differentially affect neotropical‐ and temperate‐wintering landbird species that breed in Pacific North‐west forests of North America. For neotropical species wintering in western Mexico, El Niño conditions correlate with cooler, wetter conditions prior to spring migration, and with high reproductive success the following summer. For temperate wintering species, springtime NAO indices correlate strongly with levels of forest defoliation by the larvae of two moth species and also with annual reproductive success, especially among species known to prey upon those larvae. Generalized linear models incorporating NAO indices and ENSO precipitation indices explain 50–90% of the annual variation in productivity reported for 10 landbird species. These results represent an important step towards spatially explicit modelling of avian population dynamics at regional scales.     

Seedling Mortality Due to Drought and Fire Associated with the 2002 El Niño Event in a Tropical Rain Forest in North‐East Queensland,Australia1

We monitored survival of seedlings in 216 1‐m² quadrats in lowland rain forest in tropical north Queensland between December 2001 and December 2002. During this time, the region experienced severe drought associated with an El Nińo Southern Oscillation event. The 2001 census recorded 124 species and 2912 individuals. In late November 2002 (2 wk prior to the second census), a low intensity fire passed through approximately half of the study site removing all evidence of seedlings from 110 plots. Only 482 (17%) individuals and 64 (52%) species recorded in 2001 survived the 12‐mo period. In 96 quadrats not affected by fire, mortality was high, but considerably variable between species. Six of the 20 most abundant species in 2001 experienced mortality rates higher than the community average and two of the most abundant species showed rates lower than average. Overall, conditions experienced during 2002 caused significant changes in the rank abundances of species between censuses. Mortality due to fire was less severe and mortality more uniform across species, resulting in significant concordance between pre and postfire rankings, once the effects of drought had been considered. Our results provide the first indication of how differences in survival after a perturbation predicted to become more frequent in future global climates may alter the size and species composition of the seedling bank in Australian tropical rain forests.