Human and ape molecular clocks and constraints on paleontological hypotheses

Although the relationships of the living hominoid primates (humans and apes) are well known, the relationships of the fossil species, times of divergence of both living and fossil species, and the biogeographic history of hominoids are not well established. Divergence times of living species, estimated from molecular clocks, have the potential to constrain hypotheses of the relationships of fossil species. In this study, new DNA sequences from nine protein-coding nuclear genes in great apes are added to existing datasets to increase the precision of molecular time estimates bearing on the evolutionary history of apes and humans. The divergence of Old World monkeys and hominoids at the Oligocene-Miocene boundary (approximately 23 million years ago) provides the best primate calibration point and yields a time and 95% confidence interval of 5.4 +/- 1.1 million years ago (36 nuclear genes) for the human-chimpanzee divergence. Older splitting events are estimated as 6.4 +/- 1.5 million years ago (gorilla, 31 genes), 11.3 +/- 1.3 million years ago (orangutan, 33 genes), and 14.9 +/- 2.0 million years ago (gibbon, 27 genes). Based on these molecular constraints, we find that several proposed phylogenies of fossil hominoid taxa are unlikely to be correct.     

Molecular Clock Calibrations and Metazoan Divergence Dates

It has recently been argued that living metazoans diverged over 800 million years ago, based on evidence from 22 nuclear genes for such a deep divergence between vertebrates and arthropods (Gu 1998). Two ``internal' calibration points were used. However, only one fossil divergence date (the mammal–bird split) was directly used to calibrate the molecular clock. The second calibration point (the primate–rodent split) was based on molecular estimates that were ultimately also calibrated by the same mammal–bird split. However, the first tetrapods that can be assigned with confidence to either the mammal (synapsid) lineage or the bird (diapsid) lineage are approximately 288 million years old, while the first mammals that can be assigned with confidence to either the primate or the rodent lineages are 65 million years old, or 85 million years old if ferungulates are part of the primate lineage and zhelestids are accepted as ferungulate relatives. Recalibration of the protein data using these fossil dates indicates that metazoans diverged between 791 and 528 million years ago, a result broadly consistent with the palaeontological documentation of the ``Cambrian explosion.' The third, ``external' calibration point (the metazoan–fungal divergence) was similarly problematic, since it was based on a controversial molecular study (which in turn used fossil dates including the mammal–bird split); direct use of fossils for this calibration point gives the absurd dating of 455 million years for metazoan divergences. Similar calibration problems affect another recent study (Wang et al. 1999), which proposes divergences for metazoans of 1000 million years or more: recalibrations of their clock again yields much more recent dates, some consistent with a ``Cambrian explosion' scenario. Molecular clock studies have persuasively argued for the imperfection of the fossil record but have rarely acknowledged that their inferences are also directly based on this same record. Received: 26 January 1999 / Accepted: 14 April 1999     

Molecular dating: ape bones agree with chicken entrails

Molecular time estimates, especially those that employed the 310 million years ago (Mya) date of mammal-bird divergence as the calibration point, were criticized in recent publications. In this article, we estimate the divergence time of primates and rodents, primates and artiodactyls and the different great ape species by using two independent calibration-time ranges and maximally conservative error estimates. We observed a variation of approximately +/-15-20% for most of the molecular time estimates in the 10-100 Mya range. The estimated range of the primate-rodent divergence time, 84-121 Mya, includes the date obtained with the 310 million years calibration point (110 Mya). We conclude that molecular time estimates remain useful tools of evolutionary biology, although utmost caution is required when interpreting the results.     

Calibration choice, rate smoothing, and the pattern of tetrapod diversification according to the long nuclear gene RAG-1

A phylogeny of tetrapods is inferred from nearly complete sequences of the nuclear RAG-1 gene sampled across 88 taxa encompassing all major clades, analyzed via parsimony and Bayesian methods. The phylogeny provides support for Lissamphibia, Theria, Lepidosauria, a turtle-archosaur clade, as well as most traditionally accepted groupings. This tree allows simultaneous molecular clock dating for all tetrapod groups using a set of well-corroborated calibrations. Relaxed clock (PLRS) methods, using the amniote = 315 Mya (million years ago) calibration or a set of consistent calibrations, recovers reasonable divergence dates for most groups. However, the analysis systematically underestimates divergence dates within archosaurs. The bird-crocodile split, robustly documented in the fossil record as being around approximately 245 Mya, is estimated at only approximately 190 Mya, and dates for other divergences within archosaurs are similarly underestimated. Archosaurs, and particulary turtles have slow apparent rates possibly confounding rate modeling, and inclusion of calibrations within archosaurs (despite their high deviances) not only improves divergence estimates within archosaurs, but also across other groups. Notably, the monotreme-therian split ( approximately 210 Mya) matches the fossil record; the squamate radiation ( approximately 190 Mya) is younger than suggested by some recent molecular studies and inconsistent with identification of approximately 220 and approximately 165 Myo (million-year-old) fossils as acrodont iguanians and approximately 95 Myo fossils colubroid snakes; the bird-lizard (reptile) split is considerably older than fossil estimates (< or = 285 Mya); and Sphenodon is a remarkable phylogenetic relic, being the sole survivor of a lineage more than a quarter of a billion years old. Comparison with other molecular clock studies of tetrapod divergences suggests that the common practice of enforcing most calibrations as minima, with a single liberal maximal constraint, will systematically overestimate divergence dates. Similarly, saturation of mitochondrial DNA sequences, and the resultant greater compression of basal branches means that using only external deep calibrations will also lead to inflated age estimates within the focal ingroup.     

New dates and new rates for divergence across the Isthmus of Panama

Sister species separated by the Isthmus of Panama have been widely used to estimate rates of molecular evolution. These estimates are based on the assumption that geographic isolation occurred nearly simultaneously for most taxa, when connections between the Caribbean and eastern Pacific closed approximately three million years ago. Here we show that this assumption is invalid for the only genus for which many taxa and multiple genetic markers have been analysed. Patterns of divergence exhibited by allozymes and the mitochondrial COI gene are highly concordant for 15 pairs of snapping shrimp in the genus Alpheus, indicating that they provide a reasonable basis for estimating time since cessation of gene flow. The extent of genetic divergence between pairs of sister species varied over fourfold. Sister species from mangrove environments showed the least divergence, as would be expected if these were among the last habitats to be divided. Using this pair yields a rate of sequence divergence of 1.4% per one million years, with implied times of separation for the 15 pairs of 3 to 18 million years ago. Many past studies may have overestimated rates of molecular evolution because they sampled pairs that were separated well before final closure of the Isthmus.     

Expansion dating: calibrating molecular clocks in marine species from expansions onto the Sunda Shelf Following the Last Glacial Maximum

The rate of change in DNA is an important parameter for understanding molecular evolution and hence for inferences drawn from studies of phylogeography and phylogenetics. Most rate calibrations for mitochondrial coding regions in marine species have been made from divergence dating for fossils and vicariant events older than 1-2 My and are typically 0.5-2% per lineage per million years. Recently, calibrations made with ancient DNA (aDNA) from younger dates have yielded faster rates, suggesting that estimates of the molecular rate of change depend on the time of calibration, decaying from the instantaneous mutation rate to the phylogenetic substitution rate. aDNA methods for recent calibrations are not available for most marine taxa so instead we use radiometric dates for sea-level rise onto the Sunda Shelf following the Last Glacial Maximum (starting ～18,000 years ago), which led to massive population expansions for marine species. Instead of divergence dating, we use a two-epoch coalescent model of logistic population growth preceded by a constant population size to infer a time in mutational units for the beginning of these expansion events. This model compares favorably to simpler coalescent models of constant population size, and exponential or logistic growth, and is far more precise than estimates from the mismatch distribution. Mean rates estimated with this method for mitochondrial coding genes in three invertebrate species are elevated in comparison to older calibration points (2.3-6.6% per lineage per million years), lending additional support to the hypothesis of calibration time dependency for molecular rates.     

Calibrating molecular estimates of substitution rates and divergence times in birds

Many evolutionary studies of birds rely on the estimation of molecular divergence times and substitution rates. In order to perform such analyses, it is necessary to incorporate some form of calibration information: a known substitution rate, radiometric ages of heterochronous sequences, or inferred ages of lineage splitting events. All three of these techniques have been employed in avian molecular studies, but their usage has not been entirely satisfactory. For example, the 'traditional' avian mitochondrial substitution rate of 2% per million years is frequently adopted without acknowledgement of the associated uncertainty. Similarly, fossil and biogeographic information is almost always converted into an errorless calibration point. In both cases, the resulting estimates of divergence times and substitution rates will be artificially precise, which has a considerable impact on hypothesis testing. In addition, using such a simplistic approach to calibration discards much of the information offered by the fossil record. A number of more sophisticated calibration methods have recently been introduced, culminating in the development of probability distribution-based calibrations. In this article, I discuss the use of this new class of methods and offer guidelines for choosing a calibration technique.     

A Revised Timeline for the Origin of Plasmodium falciparum as a Human Pathogen

While Plasmodium falciparum is known to have had a strong effect on human evolution, the time period when P. falciparum first infected ancestors of modern humans has remained uncertain. Recent advances demonstrated that P. falciparum evolved from ancestors of gorilla parasites via host switching. Here, we estimate the range of dates during which this host switch may have occurred. DNA sequences of portions of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene obtained from gorilla parasites closely related to human P. falciparum were aligned and compared against similar sequences from human P. falciparum. Time estimates were calculated by applying a previously established parasite cytochrome b gene mutation rate (0.012 mutations per site per million years) and by modeling uncertainty in a Monte-Carlo simulation. We estimate a 95% confidence interval for when P. falciparum first infected ancestors of modern humans to be 112,000 and 1,036,000 years ago (median estimate, 365,000 years ago). This confidence interval suggests that P. falciparum first infected human ancestors much more recently than the previous recognized estimate of 2.5 million years ago. The revised estimate may inform our understanding of certain aspects of human-malaria co-evolution. For example, this revised date suggests a closer relationship between the entry of P. falciparum in humans and the appearance of many red blood cell polymorphisms considered to be genetic adaptations to malaria. In addition, the confidence interval lies within the timeframe dating the dawn of Homo sapiens, suggesting that P. falciparum may have undergone host switching as a Plasmodia adaptation specific for our species.     

Erratic rates of molecular evolution and incongruence of fossil and molecular divergence time estimates in Ostracoda (Crustacea)

Dating evolutionary origins of taxa is essential for understanding rates and timing of evolutionary events, often inciting intense debate when molecular estimates differ from first fossil appearances. For numerous reasons, ostracods present a challenging case study of rates of evolution and congruence of fossil and molecular divergence time estimates. On the one hand, ostracods have one of the densest fossil records of any metazoan group. However, taxonomy of fossil ostracods is controversial, owing at least in part to homoplasy of carapaces, the most commonly fossilized part. In addition, rates of evolution are variable in ostracods. Here, we report evidence of extreme variation in the rate of molecular evolution in different ostracod groups. This rate is significantly elevated in Halocyprid ostracods, a widespread planktonic group, consistent with previous observations that planktonic groups show elevated rates of molecular evolution. At the same time, the rate of molecular evolution is slow in the lineage leading to Manawa staceyi, a relict species that we estimate diverged approximately 500 million years ago from its closest known living relative. We also report multiple cases of significant incongruence between fossil and molecular estimates of divergence times in Ostracoda. Although relaxed clock methods improve the congruence of fossil and molecular divergence estimates over strict clock models, incongruence is present regardless of method. We hypothesize that this observed incongruence is driven largely by problems with taxonomy of fossil Ostracoda. Our results illustrate the difficulty in consistently estimating lineage divergence times, even in the presence of a voluminous fossil record.     

That awkward age for butterflies: insights from the age of the butterfly subfamily Nymphalinae (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)

The study of the historical biogeography of butterflies has been hampered by a lack of well-resolved phylogenies and a good estimate of the temporal span over which butterflies have evolved. Recently there has been surge of phylogenetic hypotheses for various butterfly groups, but estimating ages of divergence is still in its infancy for this group of insects. The main problem has been the sparse fossil record for butterflies. In this study I have used a surprisingly good fossil record for the subfamily Nymphalinae (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) to estimate the ages of diversification of major lineages using Bayesian relaxed clock methods. I have investigated the effects of varying priors on posterior estimates in the analyses. For this data set, it is clear that the prior of the rate of molecular evolution at the ingroup node had the largest effect on the results. Taking this into account, I have been able to arrive at a plausible history of lineage splits, which appears to be correlated with known paleogeological events. The subfamily appears to have diversified soon after the K/T event about 65 million years ago. Several splits are coincident with major paleogeological events, such as the connection of the African and Asian continents about 21 million years ago and the presence of a peninsula of land connecting the current Greater Antilles to the South American continent 35 to 33 million years ago. My results suggest that the age of Nymphalidae is older than the 70 million years speculated to be the age of butterflies as a whole.     

The Wilhelmine E. Key 2001 Invitational Lecture. Estimation of divergence times for a few mammalian and several primate species

Statistical methods for estimating divergence times by using multiprotein gamma distances are discussed. When a large number of proteins are used, even a small degree of deviation from the molecular clock hypothesis can be detected. In this case, one may use the stem-lineage method for estimating divergence times. However, the estimates obtained by this method are often similar to those obtained by the linearized tree method. Application of these methods to a dataset of 104 proteins from several vertebrate species indicated that the divergence times between humans and mice and between mice and rats are about 96 and 33 million years (MY) ago, respectively. These estimates were obtained by assuming that birds and mammals diverged 310 MY ago. Similarly application of the methods to the protein sequence data from primate species indicated that the human lineage separated from the chimpanzee, gorilla, Old World monkeys, and New World monkeys about 6.0, 7.0, 23.0, and 33.0 MY ago, respectively. In this case the use of two calibration points, that is, the divergence time (13 MY ago) between humans and orangutans and between primates and artiodactyls (90 MY ago) gave essentially the same estimates.     

Parasites reveal movement of bats between the New and Old Worlds

The global distribution of bat taxa indicates that the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are effective barriers to movement between the Old and New Worlds. For instance, one of the major suborders, Yinpterochiroptera, has an exclusively Old World distribution, and within the other, Yangochiroptera, no species and only five genera are common to both. However, as bats are sometimes blown out to sea, and have colonised isolated islands, occasional natural movement between the New and Old Worlds does appear to be possible. Here we identify new genotypes of a blood parasite, Trypanosoma dionisii, in Old World bats that are closely related to South American strains. Using highly conservative calibration points, divergence of Old and New World strains is estimated to have occurred 3.2-5.0 million years ago (MYA), depending on the method used (upper 95% CL for maximum time 11.4MYA). The true date of divergence is likely to be considerably more recent. These results demonstrate that taxon-specific parasites can indicate historical movements of their hosts, even where their hosts may have left no lasting phylogenetic footprint.     

Molecular dating and biogeography of the early placental mammal radiation

The timing and phylogenetic hierarchy of early placental mammal divergences was determined based on combined DNA sequence analysis of 18 gene segments (9779 bp) from 64 species. Using rooted and unrooted phylogenies derived from distinct theoretical approaches, strong support for the divergence of four principal clades of eutherian mammals was achieved. Minimum divergence dates of the earliest nodes in the placental mammal phylogeny were estimated with a quartet-based maximum-likelihood method that accommodates rate variation among lineages using conservative fossil calibrations from nine different nodes in the eutherian tree. These minimum estimates resolve the earliest placental mammal divergence nodes at periods between 64 and 104 million years ago, in essentially every case predating the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary. The pattern and timing of these divergences allow a geographic interpretation of the primary branching events in eutherian history, likely originating in the southern supercontinent Gondwanaland coincident with its breakup into Africa and South America 95-105 million years ago. We propose an integrated genomic, paleontological, and biogeographic hypothesis to account for these earliest splits on the placental mammal family tree and address current discrepancies between fossil and molecular evidence.     

The age of the common ancestor of eukaryotes and prokaryotes: statistical inferences

In this paper, a simple distance measure was used to estimate the age (T) of the common ancestor of eukaryotes and prokaryotes which takes the rate variation among sites and the pattern of amino acid substitutions into account. Our new estimate of T based on Doolittle et al.'s data is about 2.5 billion years ago (Ga), with 95% confidence interval from 2.1 to 2.9 Ga. This result indicates (1) that Doolittle et al.'s estimate (approximately 2.0 Ga) seems too recent, and (2) that the traditional view about the divergence time between eukaryotes and prokaryotes (T0 = 3.5 Ga) can be rejected at the 0.1% significance level.      

Mitogenomic relationships of placental mammals and molecular estimates of their divergences

Molecular analyses of the relationships of placental mammals have shown a progressive congruence between mitogenomic and nuclear phylogenies. Some inconsistencies have nevertheless persisted, notably with respect to basal divergences. The current study has aimed to extend the representation of groups, whose position in the placental tree has been difficult to establish in mitogenomic studies. Both ML (maximum likelihood) and Bayesian analyses identified four basal monophyletic groups, Afroplacentalia (=Afrotheria: Hyracoidea, Proboscidea, Sirenia, Tenrecidea, Tubulidentata, Macroscelidea, Chrysochloridea), Xenarthra, Archontoglires (Primates, Dermoptera, Scandentia, Lagomorpha, Rodentia) and Laurasiaplacentalia (Lipotyphla, Chiroptera, Pholidota, Carnivora, Perissodactyla, Artiodactyla, Cetacea). All analyses joined Archontoglires and Laurasiaplacentalia on a common branch (Boreoplacentalia), but the relationship between Afroplacentalia, Xenarthra and Boreoplacentalia was not conclusively resolved. The phylogenomic hypothesis with a sister group relationship between Notoplacentalia (Afroplacentalia/Xenarthra) and Boreoplacentalia served as the basis for estimating the times of placental divergences using paleontologically well-supported mammalian calibration points. These estimates placed the basal placental divergence between Boreoplacentalia and Notoplacentalia at approximately 102 MYA (million years ago). The current estimates of ordinal placental divergences are congruent with recent estimates based on nuclear data, but inconsistent with paleontological notions that have placed the origin of essentially all placental orders within an interval of 5-10 MY in the early Tertiary. Among less deep divergences the estimates placed the split between Gorilla and Pan/Homo at approximately 11.5 MYA and that between Pan and Homo at approximately 8 MYA. As a consequence of these estimates, which are in accord with recent progress in primate paleontology, the earliest divergences among recent humans become placed approximately 270,000 years ago, i.e. approximately 100,000 years earlier than the traditional age of "Mitochondrial Eve". Comparison between the two new mt genomes of Hylomys suillus (short-tailed gymnure) patently demonstrates the inconsistency that may exist between taxonomic designations and molecular difference, as the distance between these two supposedly conspecific genomes exceeds that of the three elephantid genera Elephas, Mammuthus and Loxodonta. In accordance with the progressive use of the term Placentalia for extant orders and extinct taxa falling within this group we forward new proposals for the names of some superordinal clades of placental mammals.     

Calibrating the avian molecular clock

Molecular clocks are widely used to date phylogenetic events, yet evidence supporting the rate constancy of molecular clocks through time and across taxonomic lineages is weak. Here, we present 90 candidate avian clock calibrations obtained from fossils and biogeographical events. Cross-validation techniques were used to identify and discard 16 inconsistent calibration points. Molecular evolution occurred in an approximately clock-like manner through time for the remaining 74 calibrations of the mitochondrial gene, cytochrome b . A molecular rate of approximately 2.1% (± 0.1%, 95% confidence interval) was maintained over a 12-million-year interval and across most of 12 taxonomic orders. Minor but significant variance in rates occurred across lineages but was not explained by differences in generation time, body size or latitudinal distribution as previously suggested.     

Test for simultaneous divergence using approximate Bayesian computation

Comparative phylogeographic studies often reveal disparate levels of sequence divergence between lineages spanning a common geographic barrier, leading to the conclusion that isolation was nonsynchronous. However, only rarely do researchers account for the expected variance associated with ancestral coalescence and among-taxon variation in demographic history. We introduce a flexible approximate Bayesian computational (ABC) framework that can test for simultaneous divergence (TSD) using a hierarchical model that incorporates idiosyncratic differences in demographic history across taxon pairs. The method is tested across a range of conditions and is shown to be accurate even with single-locus mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) data. We apply this method to a landmark dataset of putative simultaneous vicariance, eight geminate echinoid taxon pairs thought to have been split by the Isthmus of Panama 3.1 million years ago. The ABC posterior estimates are not consistent with a history of simultaneous vicariance given these data. Subsequent ABC estimates under a constrained model that assumes two divergence times across the eight taxon pairs suggests simultaneous divergence 3.1 million years ago in seven of the taxon pairs and a more recent divergence in the remaining taxon pair. These ABC estimates on the simultaneous divergence of the seven taxon pairs correspond to a DNA substitution rate of approximately 1.59% per lineage per million years at the mtDNA cytochrome oxidase I gene. This ABC framework can easily be modified to analyze single taxon-pair datasets and/or be expanded to include multiple loci, migration, recombination, and other idiosyncratic demographic histories. The flexible aspect of ABC and its built-in evaluation of estimator bias and statistical power has the potential to greatly enhance statistical rigor in phylogeographic studies.     

Mosaic bacterial chromosomes: a challenge en route to a tree of genomes

In a recent analysis J.G. Lawrence and H. Ochman [Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 1998;95:9413-9417 (Reference 1)] surmised that about 10% of the current E. coli genome consists of genes that were acquired in over 200 events of lateral gene transfer, which occurred subsequent to the divergence of E. coli and Salmonella some 100 million years ago. Overall, the data suggest that no less than 18% of E. coli's genes might be relatively recent foreign acquisitions, and that the average rate of acquisition may be close to about 16 kb per million years. These quantitative estimates of comparatively recent genome flux have profound impact on evolutionary genome comparisons. They tend to suggest that a search should be on to identify principles that might ultimately govern gene distribution patterns across prokaryotic genomes.     

PHYLOGEOGRAPHY OF THE JUMPING SPIDER HABRONATTUS PUGILLIS (ARANEAE: SALTICIDAE): RECENT VICARIANCE OF SKY ISLAND POPULATIONS?

In island systems with diverging populations, the history of island formation and genealogical estimates of divergence dates can be mutually informative. In the "sky islands" of southeastern Arizona, climate-induced contraction of woodlands appears to have fragmented populations of woodland-dwelling species onto disjunct mountain ranges. Montane populations of the jumping spider, Habronattus pugillis, display striking amounts of phenotypic divergence among ranges. Paleoclimatic estimates date woodland fragmentation at approximately 10,000 years ago, suggesting that phenotypic divergence has been extraordinarily rapid in these spiders. This phylogeographic study of populations of H. pugillis attempts to clarify the species' history of isolation and divergence and to address the suitability of available paleoclimatic data for dating divergences among populations of the region's woodland-dwelling organisms. Mitochondrial sequence data of spiders from 13 mountain ranges was used to reconstruct genealogical relationships. Gene trees show that small mountain ranges tend to have populations whose sequences form monophyletic groups, whereas larger ranges do not. Paraphyly among genes from larger ranges could result from either recent migration or incomplete lineage sorting. I use phylogenetic and geographic information to test these alternatives, and conclude that incomplete lineage sorting best explains the observed paraphyly. Gene trees are concordant with some of the predictions of vegetation history generated by examination of topography. Dates estimated for divergence of populations vary from 30,000 years to more than 2 million years ago, suggesting multiple vicariance events that are older than would be inferred from paleoclimatic studies. These findings illustrate that use of any single paleontological dataset to calibrate molecular clocks can potentially greatly underestimate actual divergence times.     

Estimation of divergence times in cnidarian evolution based on mitochondrial protein-coding genes and the fossil record

The phylum Cnidaria is comprised of remarkably diverse and ecologically significant taxa, such as the reef-forming corals, and occupies a basal position in metazoan evolution. The origin of this phylum and the most recent common ancestors (MRCAs) of its modern classes remain mostly unknown, although scattered fossil evidence provides some insights on this topic. Here, we investigate the molecular divergence times of the major taxonomic groups of Cnidaria (27 Hexacorallia, 16 Octocorallia, and 5 Medusozoa) on the basis of mitochondrial DNA sequences of 13 protein-coding genes. For this analysis, the complete mitochondrial genomes of seven octocoral and two scyphozoan species were newly sequenced and combined with all available mitogenomic data from GenBank. Five reliable fossil dates were used to calibrate the Bayesian estimates of divergence times. The molecular evidence suggests that cnidarians originated 741 million years ago (Ma) (95% credible region of 686-819), and the major taxa diversified prior to the Cambrian (543 Ma). The Octocorallia and Scleractinia may have originated from radiations of survivors of the Permian-Triassic mass extinction, which matches their fossil record well.