Temperature tracking by North Sea benthic invertebrates in response to climate change

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity and distributions shifts are one of the most significant threats to global warming, but the extent to which these shifts keep pace with a changing climate is yet uncertain. Understanding the factors governing range shifts is crucial for conservation management to anticipate patterns of biodiversity distribution under future anthropogenic climate change. Soft‐sediment invertebrates are a key faunal group because of their role in marine biogeochemistry and as a food source for commercial fish species. However, little information exists on their response to climate change. Here, we evaluate changes in the distribution of 65 North Sea benthic invertebrate species between 1986 and 2000 by examining their geographic, bathymetric and thermal niche shifts and test whether species are tracking their thermal niche as defined by minimum, mean or maximum sea bottom (SBT) and surface (SST) temperatures. Temperatures increased in the whole North Sea with many benthic invertebrates showing north‐westerly range shifts (leading/trailing edges as well as distribution centroids) and deepening. Nevertheless, distribution shifts for most species (3.8–7.3 km yr^?1 interquantile range) lagged behind shifts in both SBT and SST (mean 8.1 km yr^?1), resulting in many species experiencing increasing temperatures. The velocity of climate change (VoCC) of mean SST accurately predicted both the direction and magnitude of distribution centroid shifts, while maximum SST did the same for contraction of the trailing edge. The VoCC of SBT was not a good predictor of range shifts. No good predictor of expansions of the leading edge was found. Our results show that invertebrates need to shift at different rates and directions to track the climate velocities of different temperature measures, and are therefore lagging behind most temperature measures. If these species cannot withstand a change in thermal habitat, this could ultimately lead to a drop in benthic biodiversity.     

Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem

In this article, we review evidence of how climate change has already resulted in clearly discernable changes in marine Arctic ecosystems. After defining the term ‘footprint’ and evaluating the availability of reliable baseline information we review the published literature to synthesize the footprints of climate change impacts in marine Arctic ecosystems reported as of mid‐2009. We found a total of 51 reports of documented changes in Arctic marine biota in response to climate change. Among the responses evaluated were range shifts and changes in abundance, growth/condition, behaviour/phenology and community/regime shifts. Most reports concerned marine mammals, particularly polar bears, and fish. The number of well‐documented changes in planktonic and benthic systems was surprisingly low. Evident losses of endemic species in the Arctic Ocean, and in ice algae production and associated community remained difficult to evaluate due to the lack of quantitative reports of its abundance and distribution. Very few footprints of climate change were reported in the literature from regions such as the wide Siberian shelf and the central Arctic Ocean due to the limited research effort made in these ecosystems. Despite the alarming nature of warming and its strong potential effects in the Arctic Ocean the research effort evaluating the impacts of climate change in this region is rather limited.     

Soil water balance and ecosystem response to climate change

Some essential features of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle and ecosystem response are singled out by confronting empirical observations of the soil water balance of different ecosystems with the results of a stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics. The simplified framework analytically describes how hydroclimatic variability (especially the frequency and amount of rainfall events) concurs with soil and plant characteristics in producing the soil moisture dynamics that in turn impact vegetation conditions. The results of the model extend and help interpret the classical curve of Budyko, which relates evapotranspiration losses to a dryness index, describing the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep infiltration. They also provide a general classification of soil water balance of the world ecosystems based on two governing dimensionless groups summarizing the climate, soil, and vegetation conditions. The subsequent analysis of the links among soil moisture dynamics, plant water stress, and carbon assimilation offers an interpretation of recent manipulative field experiments on ecosystem response to shifts in the rainfall regime, showing that plant carbon assimilation crucially depends not only on the total rainfall during the growing season but also on the intermittency and magnitude of the rainfall events.     

Modelling climate response to historical land cover change

In order to estimate the effect of historical land cover change (deforestation) on climate, we perform a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity – CLIMBER-2. We focus on the biophysical effect of the land cover change on climate and do not explicitly account for the biogeochemical effect. A dynamic scenario of deforestation during the last millennium is formulated based on the rates of land conversion to agriculture. The deforestation scenario causes a global cooling of 0.35 °C with a more notable cooling of the northern hemisphere (0.5 °C). The cooling is most pronounced in the northern middle and high latitudes, especially during the spring season. To compare the effect of deforestation on climate with other forcings, climate responses to the changing atmospheric CO₂ concentration and solar irradiance are also analysed. When all three factors are taken into account, dynamics of northern hemisphere temperature during the last 300 years within the model are generally in agreement with the observed (reconstructed) temperature trend. We conclude that the impact of historical land cover changes on climate is comparable with the impact of the other climate forcings and that land cover forcing is important for reproducing historical climate change.     

North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls

A recent increase in sea temperature has established a new ecosystem dynamic regime in the North Sea. Climate-induced changes in decapods have played an important role. Here, we reveal a coincident increase in the abundance of swimming crabs and lesser black-backed gull colonies in the North Sea, both in time and in space. Swimming crabs are an important food source for lesser black-backed gulls during the breeding season. Inhabiting the land, but feeding mainly at sea, lesser black-backed gulls provide a link between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, since the bottom-up influence of allochthonous nutrient input from seabirds to coastal soils can structure the terrestrial food web. We, therefore, suggest that climate-driven changes in trophic interactions in the marine food web may also have ensuing ramifications for the coastal ecology of the North Sea.     

自然生态系统响应气候变化的脆弱性评价研究进展

以气候变暖为标志的全球气候变化已引起各国政府、国际组织和科学工作者的高度重视.气候变化给人类及自然生态系统带来的风险和危害日趋增大.生态系统脆弱性分析和评价是适应和减缓气候变化的关键和基础,已成为近年来气候变化领域和生态学领域的研究热点.目前国内外学者正在不同领域、不同空间尺度上开展响应气候变化的脆弱性评价,其中以自然生态系统为评价对象的脆弱性研究也有了长足的发展.本文通过对脆弱性的概念、气候变化脆弱性评价研究现状、自然生态系统响应气候变化的脆弱性定量评价方法的综述,探讨了该研究领域存在的问题和未来的发展前景.     

Potential response to climate change of a semi-arid coastal ecosystem in eastern Mediterranean

Eastern Mediterranean gulfs, adjacent to small semi-arid watersheds are particularly susceptible to climate changes. In this study, an analysis was performed for air temperature and rainfall during 1955–2010 over a coastal ecosystem in NE Aegean, and potential effects of recent changes on the physical setting and ecological status of the marine system were studied. A trend toward drier conditions was revealed, and in order to assess possible effects on the surrounding basin, a watershed model was applied. In addition, the hydrology and ecology of the marine ecosystem were studied using a water budget model along with available field data. Based on local climatological data, dryness may lead to a decrease of one to two orders of magnitude in the amount of runoff during a dry annual cycle, resulting to a fivefold increase in the residence time of the marine system. High residence time associated with terrestrial nutrient inputs and strong stratification result to phytoplankton blooms during winter, including harmful algal blooms. Integrated approaches, modeling both the hydrology and ecology of watersheds and adjacent water bodies, are essential toward forecasting, understanding and management of potential alterations in functioning of coastal ecosystems due to recent climate changes.     

Modelling changes in species’ abundance in response to projected climate change

Aim Existing climate envelope models give an indication of broad scale shifts in distribution, but do not specifically provide information on likely future population changes useful for conservation prioritization and planning. We demonstrate how these techniques can be developed to model likely future changes in absolute density and population size as a result of climate change. Location Great Britain. Methods Generalized linear models were used to model breeding densities of two northerly‐ and two southerly‐distributed bird species as a function of climate and land use. Models were built using count data from extensive national bird monitoring data and incorporated detectability to estimate absolute abundance. Projections of likely future changes in the distribution and abundance of these species were made by applying these models to projections of future climate change under two emissions scenarios. Results Models described current spatial variation in abundance for three of the four species and produced modelled current estimates of national populations that were similar to previously published estimates for all species. Climate change was projected to result in national population declines in the two northerly‐distributed species, with declines for Eurasian curlew Numenius arquata projected to be particularly severe. Conversely, the abundances of the two southerly distributed species were projected to increase nationally. Projected maps of future abundance may be used to identify priority areas for the future conservation of each species. Main conclusions The analytical methods provide a framework to make projections of impacts of climate change on species abundance, rather than simply projected range changes. Outputs may be summarized at any spatial scale, providing information to inform future conservation planning at national, regional and local scales. Results suggest that as a consequence of climate change, northerly distributed bird species in Great Britain are likely to become an increasingly high conservation priority within the UK.     

Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change

This paper aims: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate‐induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N‐AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N‐AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N‐AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop‐relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk‐prone areas for spring cereals are found in south‐west Finland, shifting to south‐east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO₂ fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.     

Modelling changes in VOC emission in response to climate change in the continental United States

The alteration of climate is driven not only by anthropogenic activities, but also by biosphere processes that change in conjunction with climate. Emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from vegetation may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate and may play an important role in climate forcing through their influence on the atmospheric oxidative balance, greenhouse gas concentration, and the formation of aerosols. Using the VEMAP vegetation database and associated vegetation responses to climate change, this study examined the independent and combined effects of simulated changes in temperature, CO₂ concentration, and vegetation distribution on annual emissions of isoprene, monoterpenes, and other reactive VOCs (ORVOCs) from potential vegetation of the continental United States. Temperature effects were modelled according to the direct influence of temperature on enzymatic isoprene production and the vapour pressure of monoterpenes and ORVOCs. The effect of elevated CO₂ concentration was modelled according to increases in foliar biomass per unit of emitting surface area. The effects of vegetation distribution reflects simulated changes in species spatial distribution and areal coverage by 21 different vegetation classes. Simulated climate warming associated with a doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration enhanced total modelled VOC emission by 81.8% (isoprene + 82.1%, monoterpenes + 81.6%, ORVOC + 81.1%), whereas a simulated doubled CO₂ alone enhanced total modelled VOC emission by only + 11.8% (isoprene + 13.7%, monoterpenes + 4.1%, ORVOC + 11.7%). A simulated redistribution of vegetation in response to altered temperatures and precipitation patterns caused total modelled VOC emission to decline by 10.4% (isoprene – 11.7%, monoterpenes – 18.6%, ORVOC 0.0%) driven by a decline in area covered by vegetation classes emitting VOCs at high rates. Thus, the positive effect of leaf-level adjustments to elevated CO₂ (i.e. increases in foliar biomass) is balanced by the negative effect of ecosystem-level adjustments to climate (i.e. decreases in areal coverage of species emitting VOC at high rates).     

中国北方草地植被物候变化及其对气候变化的响应

研究草地物候变化对揭示草地生态系统随全球气候变化的响应机制具有重要的科学意义.本研究基于1983—2015年的GIMMS NDVI 3g、气候和数字高程模型(DEM)数据,采用动态阈值法提取北方草地的物候信息[生长季始期(SOS)、生长季末期(EOS)、生长季长度(LOS)],分析北方草地物候的时空变化及LOS对气候的响应.结果表明: 88.9%的像元SOS发生在3月下旬到5月下旬(日序第90～150天),其中,68.1%的像元表现为提前,速率为-1.5～0 d·(32 a)^-1;79.7%的像元EOS发生在10月上旬到10月下旬(日序第270～300天),其中,70.3％的像元表现为推迟,速率为0～1.5 d·(32 a)^-1;LOS持续在100～140 d,其中,LOS变长的像元占73.7%,速率为0～1.5 d·(32 a)^-1.LOS与气温呈显著正相关(R=0.628),与降水呈弱负相关(R=-0.091),并存在明显的空间差异.以海拔2000 m为分界线,低于2000 m时,LOS与海拔呈弱正相关(R=0.235),高于2000 m时,LOS与海拔呈显著负相关(R=-0.861);海拔高于3000 m时,海拔每升高1000 m, LOS缩短约10 d.     

Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change

There is ample evidence for ecological responses to recent climate change. Most studies to date have concentrated on the effects of climate change on individuals and species, with particular emphasis on the effects on phenology and physiology of organisms as well as changes in the distribution and range shifts of species. However, responses by individual species to climate change are not isolated; they are connected through interactions with others at the same or adjacent trophic levels. Also from this more complex perspective, recent case studies have emphasized evidence on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services. This review highlights the ‘knowns’ but also ‘unknowns’ resulting from recent climate impact studies and reveals limitations of (linear) extrapolations from recent climate-induced responses of species to expected trends and magnitudes of future climate change. Hence, there is need not only to continue to focus on the impacts of climate change on the actors in ecological networks but also and more intensively to focus on the linkages between them, and to acknowledge that biotic interactions and feedback processes lead to highly complex, nonlinear and sometimes abrupt responses.     

Wasp-waist interactions in the North Sea ecosystem

Background

In a “wasp-waist” ecosystem, an intermediate trophic level is expected to control the abundance of predators through a bottom-up interaction and the abundance of prey through a top-down interaction. Previous studies suggest that the North Sea is mainly governed by bottom-up interactions driven by climate perturbations. However, few studies have investigated the importance of the intermediate trophic level occupied by small pelagic fishes.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigated the numeric interactions among 10 species of seabirds, two species of pelagic fish and four groups of zooplankton in the North Sea using decadal-scale databases. Linear models were used to relate the time series of zooplankton and seabirds to the time series of pelagic fish. Seabirds were positively related to herring (Clupea harengus), suggesting a bottom-up interaction. Two groups of zooplankton; Calanus helgolandicus and krill were negatively related to sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and herring respectively, suggesting top-down interactions. In addition, we found positive relationships among the zooplankton groups. Para/pseudocalanus was positively related to C. helgolandicus and C. finmarchicus was positively related to krill.

Conclusion/Significance

Our results indicate that herring was important in regulating the abundance of seabirds through a bottom-up interaction and that herring and sprat were important in regulating zooplankton through top-down interactions. We suggest that the positive relationships among zooplankton groups were due to selective foraging and switching in the two clupeid fishes. Our results suggest that “wasp-waist” interactions might be more important in the North Sea than previously anticipated. Fluctuations in the populations of pelagic fish due to harvesting and depletion of their predators might accordingly have profound consequences for ecosystem dynamics through trophic cascades.     

Endemic species and ecosystem sensitivity to climate change in Namibia

We present a first assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the endemic flora of Namibia, and on its vegetation structure and function, for a projected climate in ～2050 and ～2080. We used both niche‐based models (NBM) to evaluate the sensitivity of 159 endemic species to climate change (of an original 1020 plant species modeled) and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) to assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation structure and ecosystem functioning. Endemic species modeled by NBM are moderately sensitive to projected climate change. Fewer than 5% are predicted to experience complete range loss by 2080, although more than 47% of the species are expected to be vulnerable (range reduction >30%) by 2080 if they are assumed unable to migrate. Disaggregation of results by life‐form showed distinct patterns. Endemic species of perennial herb, geophyte and tree life‐formsare predicted to be negatively impacted in Namibia, whereas annual herb and succulent endemic species remain relatively stable by 2050 and 2080. Endemic annual herb species are even predicted to extend their range north‐eastward into the tree and shrub savanna with migration, and tolerance of novel substrates. The current protected area network is predicted to meet its mandate by protecting most of the current endemicity in Namibia into the future. Vegetation simulated by DGVM is projected to experience a reduction in cover, net primary productivity and leaf area index throughout much of the country by 2050, with important implications for the faunal component of Namibia's ecosystems, and the agricultural sector. The plant functional type (PFT) composition of the major biomes may be substantially affected by climate change and rising atmospheric CO₂– currently widespread deciduous broad leaved trees and C₄ PFTs decline, with the C₄ PFT particularly negatively affected by rising atmospheric CO₂ impacts by ～2080 and deciduous broad leaved trees more likely directly impacted by drying and warming. The C₃ PFT may increase in prominence in the northwestern quadrant of the country by ～2080 as CO₂ concentrations increase. These results suggest that substantial changes in species diversity, vegetation structure and ecosystem functioning can be expected in Namibia with anticipated climate change, although endemic plant richness may persist in the topographically diverse central escarpment region.     

Adaptation strategies to climate change in marine systems

The world's oceans are highly impacted by climate change and other human pressures, with significant implications for marine ecosystems and the livelihoods that they support. Adaptation for both natural and human systems is increasingly important as a coping strategy due to the rate and scale of ongoing and potential future change. Here, we conduct a review of literature concerning specific case studies of adaptation in marine systems, and discuss associated characteristics and influencing factors, including drivers, strategy, timeline, costs, and limitations. We found ample evidence in the literature that shows that marine species are adapting to climate change through shifting distributions and timing of biological events, while evidence for adaptation through evolutionary processes is limited. For human systems, existing studies focus on frameworks and principles of adaptation planning, but examples of implemented adaptation actions and evaluation of outcomes are scarce. These findings highlight potentially useful strategies given specific social–ecological contexts, as well as key barriers and specific information gaps requiring further research and actions.     

Ecophysiological constraints shape autumn migratory response to climate change in the North American field sparrow

Our ability to accurately forecast species' geographical responses to climate change requires knowledge of the proximate and ultimate drivers of their distribution. Here, we consider the ecophysiological and demographic determinants of the distribution of a partial migrant, the North American field sparrow, Spizella pusilla. From 1940 to 1963, the field sparrow extended its winter northern range margin 222km polewards. Such expansion was coincident with not only a geographical expansion into suitable breeding habitats, but also a decrease in mean abundance across sites occupied during the winter surveys. Combined, these trends suggest that declining populations along the expansion front either stopped migrating or altered their autumn migration. The poleward expansion was not coincident with climatically induced decreases in peak metabolic energy demand, but it did track increases in ecosystem net primary productivity. After 1963, the species' lower lethal temperature prevented further poleward movement. These findings show how different ecophysiological constraints can interact to change migration and distribution in a demographically declining species.     

Dynamic larval dispersal can mediate the response of marine metapopulations to multiple climate change impacts

Climate change is having multiple impacts on marine species characterized by sedentary adult and pelagic larval phases, from increasing adult mortality to changes in larval duration and ocean currents. Recent studies have shown impacts of climate change on species persistence through direct effects on individual survival and development, but few have considered the indirect effects mediated by ocean currents and species traits such as pelagic larval duration. We used a density-dependent and stochastic metapopulation model to predict how changes in adult mortality and dynamic connectivity can affect marine metapopulation stability. We analyzed our model with connectivity data simulated from a biophysical ocean model of the northeast Pacific coast forced under current (1998–2007) and future (2068–2077) climate scenarios in combination with scenarios of increasing adult mortality and decreasing larval duration. Our results predict that changes of ocean currents and larval duration mediated by climate change interact in complex and opposing directions to shape local mortality and metapopulation connectivity with synergistic effects on regional metapopulation stability: while species with short larval duration are most sensitive to temperature-driven reduction in larval duration, the response of species with longer larval duration are mostly mediated by changes in both the mean and variance of larval connectivity driven by ocean currents. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the spatiotemporal structure of connectivity in order to predict how the multiple effects of climate change will impact marine populations.