Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling

Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazards model. The MLE is computed by the EM-algorithm, which is easy to implement in the proportional hazards setting. Standard errors are estimated by a numerical profile likelihood approach based on EM aided differentiation. The work was motivated by a nested case-control study that hypothesized that insulin-like growth factor I was associated with ischemic heart disease. The study was based on a population of 3784 Danes and 231 cases of ischemic heart disease where controls were matched on age and gender. We illustrate the use of the MLE for these data and show how the maximum likelihood framework can be used to obtain information additional to the relative risk estimates of covariates.     

Weight calibration to improve the efficiency of pure risk estimates from case-control samples nested in a cohort

Cohort studies provide information on relative hazards and pure risks of disease. For rare outcomes, large cohorts are needed to have sufficient numbers of events, making it costly to obtain covariate information on all cohort members. We focus on nested case-control designs that are used to estimate relative hazard in the Cox regression model. In 1997, Langholz and Borgan showed that pure risk can also be estimated from nested case-control data. However, these approaches do not take advantage of some covariates that may be available on all cohort members. Researchers have used weight calibration to increase the efficiency of relative hazard estimates from case-cohort studies and nested cased-control studies. Our objective is to extend weight calibration approaches to nested case-control designs to improve precision of estimates of relative hazards and pure risks. We show that calibrating sample weights additionally against follow-up times multiplied by relative hazards during the risk projection period improves estimates of pure risk. Efficiency improvements for relative hazards for variables that are available on the entire cohort also contribute to improved efficiency for pure risks. We develop explicit variance formulas for the weight-calibrated estimates. Simulations show how much precision is improved by calibration and confirm the validity of inference based on asymptotic normality. Examples are provided using data from the American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health Cohort Study.     

Conditional likelihood methods for haplotype-based association analysis using matched case-control data

Genetic epidemiologists routinely assess disease susceptibility in relation to haplotypes, that is, combinations of alleles on a single chromosome. We study statistical methods for inferring haplotype-related disease risk using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype data from matched case-control studies, where controls are individually matched to cases on some selected factors. Assuming a logistic regression model for haplotype-disease association, we propose two conditional likelihood approaches that address the issue that haplotypes cannot be inferred with certainty from SNP genotype data (phase ambiguity). One approach is based on the likelihood of disease status conditioned on the total number of cases, genotypes, and other covariates within each matching stratum, and the other is based on the joint likelihood of disease status and genotypes conditioned only on the total number of cases and other covariates. The joint-likelihood approach is generally more efficient, particularly for assessing haplotype-environment interactions. Simulation studies demonstrated that the first approach was more robust to model assumptions on the diplotype distribution conditioned on environmental risk variables and matching factors in the control population. We applied the two methods to analyze a matched case-control study of prostate cancer.     

Statistical methods for analysis of radiation effects with tumor and dose location-specific information with application to the WECARE study of asynchronous contralateral breast cancer

Summary .  Methods for the analysis of individually matched case-control studies with location-specific radiation dose and tumor location information are described. These include likelihood methods for analyses that just use cases with precise location of tumor information and methods that also include cases with imprecise tumor location information. The theory establishes that each of these likelihood based methods estimates the same radiation rate ratio parameters, within the context of the appropriate model for location and subject level covariate effects. The underlying assumptions are characterized and the potential strengths and limitations of each method are described. The methods are illustrated and compared using the WECARE study of radiation and asynchronous contralateral breast cancer.     

Causal mediation analysis in nested case-control studies using conditional logistic regression

The paper proposes an approach to causal mediation analysis in nested case-control study designs, often incorporated with countermatching schemes using conditional likelihood, and we compare the method's performance to that of mediation analysis using the Cox model for the full cohort with a continuous or dichotomous mediator. Simulation studies are conducted to assess our proposed method and investigate the efficiency relative to the cohort. We illustrate the method using actual data from two studies of potential mediation of radiation risk conducted within the Adult Health Study cohort of atomic-bomb survivors. The performance becomes comparable to that based on the full cohort, illustrating the potential for valid mediation analysis based on the reduced data obtained through the nested case-control design.     

Sampling for conditional inference on case-control data

The problem of exact conditional inference for discrete multivariate case-control data has two forms. The first is grouped case-control data, where Monte Carlo computations can be done using the importance sampling method of Booth and Butler (1999, Biometrika86, 321-332), or a proposed alternative sequential importance sampling method. The second form is matched case-control data. For this analysis we propose a new exact sampling method based on the conditional-Poisson distribution for conditional testing with one binary and one integral ordered covariate. This method makes computations on data sets with large numbers of matched sets fast and accurate. We provide detailed derivation of the constraints and conditional distributions for conditional inference on grouped and matched data. The methods are illustrated on several new and old data sets.     

Efficiency of cohort sampling designs: some surprising results.

Cohort sampling designs are proposed which one would intuitively expect to be more efficient than nested case-control sampling. Two of these designs start with a nested case-control sample and distribute controls to sampled risk sets other than those for which they were picked. The third design has the goal of maximizing the number of distinct persons in a nested case-control sample. Simulation results show surprisingly little gain, and more often a loss in efficiency of these new designs relative to nested case-control sampling. This is due to the sampling-induced covariance between score terms. We conclude that the often stated intuition that nested case-control sampling does not make good use of sampled individuals' covariate histories is false.     

Analysis of case-control age-at-onset data using a modified case-cohort method

Case-control designs are widely used in rare disease studies. In a typical case-control study, data are collected from a sample of all available subjects who have experienced a disease (cases) and a sub-sample of subjects who have not experienced the disease (controls) in a study cohort. Cases are oversampled in case-control studies. Logistic regression is a common tool to estimate the relative risks of the disease with respect to a set of covariates. Very often in such a study, information of ages-at-onset of the disease for all cases and ages at survey of controls are known. Standard logistic regression analysis using age as a covariate is based on a dichotomous outcome and does not efficiently use such age-at-onset (time-to-event) information. We propose to analyze age-at-onset data using a modified case-cohort method by treating the control group as an approximation of a subcohort assuming rare events. We investigate the asymptotic bias of this approximation and show that the asymptotic bias of the proposed estimator is small when the disease rate is low. We evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed method through a simulation study and illustrate the method using a breast cancer case-control data set.     

Ascertainment bias in rate ratio estimation from case-sibling control studies of variable age-at-onset diseases

Motivated by a Finnish case-control study of early onset diabetes in which diabetic children are matched to sibling controls, we investigate ascertainment bias of the usual rate ratio estimator from case-control data under simplex complete ascertainment of families during a fixed interval of time. Analytic results indicate that the assumptions necessary for valid estimation are that the disease is rare and the factors under study are exchangeable--essentially that the covariate distribution does not depend on calendar time or birth order. Further, we found that the rare disease assumption could be dropped by restricting to cases that were diagnosed during the enrollment period of the study or including all cases but eliminating the proband as a control for non-enrollment-period cases. An important consequence of this work is that standard family-based case-control studies are subject to ascertainment bias if exchangeability of the covariates under investigation does not hold.     

Proton pump inhibitors on pancreatic cancer risk and survival

BackgroundHypergastrinemia may promote the development and progression of pancreatic cancer. Proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy is known to cause hypergastrinemia. We sought to determine the association between PPI therapy and the risk of developing pancreatic cancer as well as survival following pancreatic cancer diagnosis.MethodsWe conducted a nested case-control study and a retrospective cohort study in The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a medical records database representative of the UK population. In the case-control study, each patient with incident pancreatic cancer was matched with up to four controls based on age, sex, practice site and both duration and calendar time of follow-up using incidence density sampling. The odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for pancreatic cancer risk associated with PPI use were estimated using multivariable conditional logistic regression. The retrospective cohort study compared the survival of pancreatic cancer patients according to their PPI exposure at the time of diagnosis. The effect of PPI use on pancreatic cancer survival was assessed using a multivariable Cox regression analysis.ResultsThe case-control study included 4113 cases and 16,072 matched controls. PPI use was more prevalent in cases than controls (53% vs. 26% active users). Adjusting for diabetes, smoking, alcohol use and BMI, PPI users including both former users and active users with longer cumulative PPI use had a higher risk of pancreatic cancer compared to non-users. When assessing survival following pancreatic cancer diagnosis, only short-term, active users had a modest decrease in survival.ConclusionsLong-term PPI therapy may be associated with pancreatic cancer risk. While PPI users recently started on treatment had a slightly worse survival, this result likely is from reverse causation.     

Sensitivity analysis for matched case-control studies

A sensitivity analysis in an observational study indicates the degree to which conclusions would be altered by hidden biases of various magnitudes. A method of sensitivity analysis previously proposed for cohort studies is extended for use in matched case-control studies with multiple controls, where slightly different derivations and calculations are required. Also discussed is a sensitivity analysis for case-control studies that have two distinct types of controls, say hospital and neighborhood controls, where the two types may be affected by different biases. For illustration, the method is applied to five case-control studies, including a study of herniated lumbar disc in which there are three types of cases, and a study of breast cancer with two types of controls.     

流行病学研究中的嵌套病例对照研究

自从1975年由Thomas提出以来，嵌套病例对照研究（nested case-control study）方法在流行病学和生存分析的研究中应用日益广泛，近几年来，随机点过程理论的发展促进了这一方法中的理论问题的解决，从而为这一方法的进一步研究奠定了理论基础，本文综述近年来嵌套病例对照研究方法的新进展，指出目前仍待研究的一些问题，并就一种特殊情况给出了Mantel-Haenszel型推断方法。     

Efficient semiparametric estimation of haplotype-disease associations in case-cohort and nested case-control studies

Estimating the effects of haplotypes on the age of onset of a disease is an important step toward the discovery of genes that influence complex human diseases. A haplotype is a specific sequence of nucleotides on the same chromosome of an individual and can only be measured indirectly through the genotype. We consider cohort studies which collect genotype data on a subset of cohort members through case-cohort or nested case-control sampling. We formulate the effects of haplotypes and possibly time-varying environmental variables on the age of onset through a broad class of semiparametric regression models. We construct appropriate nonparametric likelihoods, which involve both finite- and infinite-dimensional parameters. The corresponding nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators are shown to be consistent, asymptotically normal, and asymptotically efficient. Consistent variance-covariance estimators are provided, and efficient and reliable numerical algorithms are developed. Simulation studies demonstrate that the asymptotic approximations are accurate in practical settings and that case-cohort and nested case-control designs are highly cost-effective. An application to a major cardiovascular study is provided.     

A Bayesian semiparametric approach for incorporating longitudinal information on exposure history for inference in case-control studies

In a typical case-control study, exposure information is collected at a single time point for the cases and controls. However, case-control studies are often embedded in existing cohort studies containing a wealth of longitudinal exposure history about the participants. Recent medical studies have indicated that incorporating past exposure history, or a constructed summary measure of cumulative exposure derived from the past exposure history, when available, may lead to more precise and clinically meaningful estimates of the disease risk. In this article, we propose a flexible Bayesian semiparametric approach to model the longitudinal exposure profiles of the cases and controls and then use measures of cumulative exposure based on a weighted integral of this trajectory in the final disease risk model. The estimation is done via a joint likelihood. In the construction of the cumulative exposure summary, we introduce an influence function, a smooth function of time to characterize the association pattern of the exposure profile on the disease status with different time windows potentially having differential influence/weights. This enables us to analyze how the present disease status of a subject is influenced by his/her past exposure history conditional on the current ones. The joint likelihood formulation allows us to properly account for uncertainties associated with both stages of the estimation process in an integrated manner. Analysis is carried out in a hierarchical Bayesian framework using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The proposed methodology is motivated by, and applied to a case-control study of prostate cancer where longitudinal biomarker information is available for the cases and controls.     

Novel two-phase sampling designs for studying binary outcomes

In biomedical cohort studies for assessing the association between an outcome variable and a set of covariates, usually, some covariates can only be measured on a subgroup of study subjects. An important design question is—which subjects to select into the subgroup to increase statistical efficiency. When the outcome is binary, one may adopt a case-control sampling design or a balanced case-control design where cases and controls are further matched on a small number of complete discrete covariates. While the latter achieves success in estimating odds ratio (OR) parameters for the matching covariates, similar two-phase design options have not been explored for the remaining covariates, especially the incompletely collected ones. This is of great importance in studies where the covariates of interest cannot be completely collected. To this end, assuming that an external model is available to relate the outcome and complete covariates, we propose a novel sampling scheme that oversamples cases and controls with worse goodness-of-fit based on the external model and further matches them on complete covariates similarly to the balanced design. We develop a pseudolikelihood method for estimating OR parameters. Through simulation studies and explorations in a real-cohort study, we find that our design generally leads to reduced asymptotic variances of the OR estimates and the reduction for the matching covariates is comparable to that of the balanced design.     

Test of association between haplotypes and phenotypes in case-control studies: examination of validity of the application of an algorithm for samples from cohort or clinical trials to case-control samples using simulated and real data

The use of haplotype information in case-control studies is an area of focus for the research on the association between phenotypes and genetic polymorphisms. We examined the validity of the application of the likelihood-based algorithm, which was originally developed to analyze the data from cohort studies or clinical trials, to the data from case-control studies. This algorithm was implemented in a computer program called PENHAPLO. In this program, haplotype frequencies and penetrances are estimated using the expectation-maximization algorithm, and the haplotype-phenotype association is tested using the generalized likelihood ratio. We show that this algorithm was useful not only for cohort studies but also for case-control studies. Simulations under the null hypothesis (no association between haplotypes and phenotypes) have shown that the type I error rates were accurately estimated. The simulations under alternative hypotheses showed that PENHAPLO is a robust method for the analysis of the data from case-control studies even when the haplotypes were not in HWE, although real penetrances cannot be estimated. The power of PENHAPLO was higher than that of other methods using the likelihood-ratio test for the comparison of haplotype frequencies. Results of the analysis of real data indicated that a significant association between haplotypes in the SAA1 gene and AA-amyloidosis phenotype was observed in patients with rheumatoid arthritis, thereby suggesting the validity of the application of PENHAPLO for case-control data.     

Family-specific approaches to the analysis of case-control family data

Case-control studies augmented by the values of responses and covariates from family members allow investigators to study the association between the response and genetics and environment by relating differences in the response directly to within-family differences in covariates. However, existing approaches for case-control family data parameterize covariate effects in terms of the marginal probability of response, the same effects that one estimates from standard case-control studies. This article focuses on the estimation of family-specific covariate effects and develops efficient methods to fit family-specific models such as binary mixed-effects models. We also extend the approach to cover any setting where one has a fully specified model for the vector of responses in a family. We illustrate our approach using data from a case-control family study of brain cancer and consider the use of weighted and conditional likelihood methods as alternatives.     

Bias-reduced estimators of conditional odds ratios in matched case-control studies with unmatched confounding

We study bias-reduced estimators of exponentially transformed parameters in general linear models (GLMs) and show how they can be used to obtain bias-reduced conditional (or unconditional) odds ratios in matched case-control studies. Two options are considered and compared: the explicit approach and the implicit approach. The implicit approach is based on the modified score function where bias-reduced estimates are obtained by using iterative procedures to solve the modified score equations. The explicit approach is shown to be a one-step approximation of this iterative procedure. To apply these approaches for the conditional analysis of matched case-control studies, with potentially unmatched confounding and with several exposures, we utilize the relation between the conditional likelihood and the likelihood of the unconditional logit binomial GLM for matched pairs and Cox partial likelihood for matched sets with appropriately setup data. The properties of the estimators are evaluated by using a large Monte Carlo simulation study and an illustration of a real dataset is shown. Researchers reporting the results on the exponentiated scale should use bias-reduced estimators since otherwise the effects can be under or overestimated, where the magnitude of the bias is especially large in studies with smaller sample sizes.     

Genetic basis of autoantibody positive and negative rheumatoid arthritis risk in a multi-ethnic cohort derived from electronic health records

Discovering and following up on genetic associations with complex phenotypes require large patient cohorts. This is particularly true for patient cohorts of diverse ancestry and clinically relevant subsets of disease. The ability to mine the electronic health records (EHRs) of patients followed as part of routine clinical care provides a potential opportunity to efficiently identify affected cases and unaffected controls for appropriate-sized genetic studies. Here, we demonstrate proof-of-concept that it is possible to use EHR data linked with biospecimens to establish a multi-ethnic case-control cohort for genetic research of a complex disease, rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In 1,515 EHR-derived RA cases and 1,480 controls matched for both genetic ancestry and disease-specific autoantibodies (anti-citrullinated protein antibodies [ACPA]), we demonstrate that the odds ratios and aggregate genetic risk score (GRS) of known RA risk alleles measured in individuals of European ancestry within our EHR cohort are nearly identical to those derived from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 5,539 autoantibody-positive RA cases and 20,169 controls. We extend this approach to other ethnic groups and identify a large overlap in the GRS among individuals of European, African, East Asian, and Hispanic ancestry. We also demonstrate that the distribution of a GRS based on 28 non-HLA risk alleles in ACPA+ cases partially overlaps with ACPA- subgroup of RA cases. Our study demonstrates that the genetic basis of rheumatoid arthritis risk is similar among cases of diverse ancestry divided into subsets based on ACPA status and emphasizes the utility of linking EHR clinical data with biospecimens for genetic studies.     

On the design of synthetic case-control studies

A design is proposed for "case-control within cohort" studies. In this design, controls are sampled without replacement from failure-free members of the cohort at each distinct failure time. Upon selection, a subject ceases to be eligible for control selection at later failure times. Also, if a subject failing at time t had been selected as a control at t' less than t, then the matched controls at t are selected to have also been at risk at t'. In these circumstances correlation exists between score statistic contributions at t and t'. An estimator is developed for this correlation. A small simulation study compares the design just described to other possible synthetic case-control designs.