Understanding effects of global change on river ecosystems: science to support policy in a changing world

This study explores the past, present and future ecological changes in the highest Mediterranean temporary pond (Omalos pond) in western Crete, Greece. Data from downcore pollen analysis (including pollen and spores from both aquatic vegetation, and terrestrial herbaceous, arboreal and shrub vegetation), modern vegetation monitoring and existing climate scenarios have been combined to provide a picture of the ecological changes in the pond over the last 13,600 years. Downcore pollen analysis throughout the last 13,600 years indicated the presence of species typical of Mediterranean Temporary Pond (MTP) habitats and suggested relatively drier conditions towards the present. The low number of non-native, cultivated species (such as herbaceous Trifolium and Plantago species) observed over this period suggested relatively low impact from crop agriculture, despite the increasing grazing pressure in the area. In the absence of independent proxies, we cannot reliably distinguish between natural and human-induced changes. The presence of aquatic Isoetes in the palaeo-record indicates the existence of an ephemeral pond in the area as early as the beginning of the Holocene suggesting resilience of the ecosystem over time. However, the degraded state of pollen in depths over 55 cm (i.e. 3600 year BP) increases the uncertainty of the interpretation. Currently, the pond holds 76 plant species belonging to 25 families. Therophytes and chamaephytes were the most frequent, suggesting a typical ephemeral habitat life form spectrum. Species richness was found to increase during spring surveys whereas the highest turnover was observed between summer surveys of consecutive years. Cluster analysis demonstrated a distinct zonation in four vegetation belts from the periphery to the centre of the pond which is typical of these environments. Modelling, based on two IPPC scenarios (A2 and B2), predicted relatively low climate change impacts on the pond’s hydroperiod for the next 100 years (i.e. a decrease of 16 and 24 days, respectively). This reduction in the hydroperiod of the pond will have an effect on the physiognomy and spatial extent of vegetation, particularly for the transitional belts between the core and its outer area, while it will exert more pressure on the pond as a water resource for sheep in the region. However, cumulative effects and complex interactions of climate-driven environmental changes and other anthropogenic disturbances might act synergistically to accelerate impacts in the future.     

Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large‐scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient‐climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat‐dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod‐dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem‐based management context.     

Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness

Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8°C scenario, but to decrease significantly (−9.4%) under the ‘business as usual’ A1FI/+4.0°C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras.     

Interactive effects of global and regional change on a coastal ecosystem

Vertical distribution and diel vertical migration of a zooplankton community were studied at two stations off Central Peru in April 2006. Zooplankton was collected at five depth strata by vertical hauls with Hydo-Bios multinet (300-μm mesh, 0.25-m² mouth size). The zooplankton community was distributed in relation to a strong, shallow oxycline (1 ml l^?1 oxygen isopleth generally above 36 m). The highest total abundance was always in the upper, well-oxygenated layer. The most important species were: Acartia tonsa (72.86%), Centropages brachiatus (7.5%), and Paracalanus parvus (3.1%); Acartia tonsa was the dominant species at all times. Larvae of the polychaete Magelona sp. (7.5%) and larvae of the brachiopod Discinisca lamellosa (3.5%) were numerically dominant in April and small copepods e.g. Oncaea venusta (3.88%) were numerically dominant during August. Five distinct patterns of vertical distribution and migration in relation to the oxygen minimum layer were distinguished in this study: (1) Ontogenetic vertical migration through the oxycline (Acartia tonsa adults, nauplii, and copepodids), (2) permanent limitation to layers above the oxycline (e.g. Oikopleura sp., most invertebrate larvae), (3) distribution mostly below the oxycline with occasional migration into the layers just above the oxycline (Eucalanus inermis), (4) Diel Vertical Migration (Centropages brachiatus), and (5) reverse Diel Vertical Migration (larvae of the polychaete Magelona sp.).     

Omega-3: a link between global climate change and human health

In recent years, global climate change has been shown to detrimentally affect many biological and environmental factors, including those of marine ecosystems. In particular, global climate change has been linked to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, UV irradiation, and ocean temperatures, resulting in decreased marine phytoplankton growth and reduced synthesis of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Marine phytoplankton are the primary producers of omega-3 PUFAs, which are essential nutrients for normal human growth and development and have many beneficial effects on human health. Thus, these detrimental effects of climate change on the oceans may reduce the availability of omega-3 PUFAs in our diets, exacerbating the modern deficiency of omega-3 PUFAs and imbalance of the tissue omega-6/omega-3 PUFA ratio, which have been associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disease. This article provides new insight into the relationship between global climate change and human health by identifying omega-3 PUFA availability as a potentially important link, and proposes a biotechnological strategy for addressing the potential shortage of omega-3 PUFAs in human diets resulting from global climate change.     

Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx

The classic 10‐year population cycle of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus, Erxleben 1777) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis, Kerr 1792) in the boreal forests of North America has drawn much attention from both population and community ecologists worldwide; however, the ecological mechanisms driving the 10‐year cyclic dynamic pattern are not fully revealed yet. In this study, by the use of historic fur harvest data, we constructed a series of generalized additive models to study the effects of density dependence, predation, and climate (both global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and northern hemispheric temperature (NHT) and local weather data including temperature, rainfall, and snow). We identified several key pathways from global and local climate to lynx with various time lags: rainfall shows a negative, and snow shows a positive effect on lynx; NHT and NAO negatively affect lynx through their positive effect on rainfall and negative effect on snow; SOI positively affects lynx through its negative effect on rainfall. Direct or delayed density dependency effects, the prey effect of hare on lynx and a 2‐year delayed negative effect of lynx on hare (defined as asymmetric predation) were found. The simulated population dynamics is well fitted to the observed long‐term fluctuations of hare and lynx populations. Through simulation, we find density dependency and asymmetric predation, only producing damped oscillation, are necessary but not sufficient factors in causing the observed 10‐year cycles; while extrinsic climate factors are important in producing and modifying the sustained cycles. Two recent population declines of lynx (1940–1955 and after 1980) were likely caused by ongoing climate warming indirectly. Our results provide an alternative explanation to the mechanism of the 10‐year cycles, and there is a need for further investigation on links between disappearance of population cycles and global warming in hare–lynx system.     

Potential effects of future climate change on global reptile distributions and diversity

Aim

Until recently, complete information on global reptile distributions has not been widely available. Here, we provide the first comprehensive climate impact assessment for reptiles on a global scale.

Location

Global, excluding Antarctica.

Time period

1995, 2050 and 2080.

Major taxa studied

Reptiles.

Methods

We modelled the distribution of 6296 reptile species and assessed potential global and realm-specific changes in species richness, the change in global species richness across climate space, and species-specific changes in range extent, overlap and position under future climate change. To assess the future climatic impact on 3768 range-restricted species, which could not be modelled, we compared the future change in climatic conditions between both modelled and non-modelled species.

Results

Reptile richness was projected to decline significantly over time, globally but also for most zoogeographical realms, with the greatest decreases in Brazil, Australia and South Africa. Species richness was highest in warm and moist regions, with these regions being projected to shift further towards climate extremes in the future. Range extents were projected to decline considerably in the future, with a low overlap between current and future ranges. Shifts in range centroids differed among realms and taxa, with a dominant global poleward shift. Non-modelled species were significantly stronger affected by projected climatic changes than modelled species.

Main conclusions

With ongoing future climate change, reptile richness is likely to decrease significantly across most parts of the world. This effect, in addition to considerable impacts on species range extent, overlap and position, was visible across lizards, snakes and turtles alike. Together with other anthropogenic impacts, such as habitat loss and harvesting of species, this is a cause for concern. Given the historical lack of global reptile distributions, this calls for a re-assessment of global reptile conservation efforts, with a specific focus on anticipated future climate change.     

Time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change

Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time‐lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate–vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large‐scale vegetation–climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time‐lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate‐driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time‐lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate‐driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time‐lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time‐lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982–2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time‐lag effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change.     

Predicted decrease in global climate suitability masks regional complexity of invasive fruit fly species response to climate change

Climate change affects the rate of insect invasions as well as the abundance, distribution and impacts of such invasions on a global scale. Among the principal analytical approaches to predicting and understanding future impacts of biological invasions are Species Distribution Models (SDMs), typically in the form of correlative Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). An underlying assumption of ENMs is that species–environment relationships remain preserved during extrapolations in space and time, although this is widely criticised. The semi-mechanistic modelling platform, CLIMEX, employs a top-down approach using species ecophysiological traits and is able to avoid some of the issues of extrapolation, making it highly applicable to investigating biological invasions in the context of climate change. The tephritid fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) comprise some of the most successful invasive species and serious economic pests around the world. Here we project 12 tephritid species CLIMEX models into future climate scenarios to examine overall patterns of climate suitability and forecast potential distributional changes for this group. We further compare the aggregate response of the group against species-specific responses. We then consider additional drivers of biological invasions to examine how invasion potential is influenced by climate, fruit production and trade indices. Considering the group of tephritid species examined here, climate change is predicted to decrease global climate suitability and to shift the cumulative distribution poleward. However, when examining species-level patterns, the predominant directionality of range shifts for 11 of the 12 species is eastward. Most notably, management will need to consider regional changes in fruit fly species invasion potential where high fruit production, trade indices and predicted distributions of these flies overlap.     

Disentangling the effects of global climate and regional land-use change on the current and future distribution of mangroves in South Africa

The mangrove distribution in South Africa is fragmented and restricted to small forest patches occupying only 16 % of the estuaries within the current range. In this study we used species distribution models to test (1) whether the absence of mangrove forest and its species (Avicennia marina, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza and Rhizophora mucronata) within their current range is driven by climate or by climate combined with human or geomorphic perturbation and (2) how climate change may potentially affect the latitudinal limit of the mangrove forests and its species in South Africa. We used three modelling techniques (generalized linear models, generalized additive models and gradient boosting machines) and a set of three climate-based predictive variables (minimum air temperature of the coldest month, waterbalance and growing-degree days) combined separately with an index of human or geomorphic perturbation. Climate variables for the future projections were derived from two general circulation models driven by two socio-economic scenarios (A2a and B2a). Within the range of the mangrove forest, the fragmented distribution of the mangroves in South Africa was not explained by our set of climate variables alone. The index of human perturbations slightly improved the predictions but the index of geomorphic perturbation did not. Climate change will create climatically suitable sites for the mangrove forest and the two species A. marina and B. gymnorrhiza beyond their current limits, but model outcomes did not agree on the future potential distribution of R. mucronata. We were able to successfully predict range limits and to detect future climatically suitable sites beyond the current limits. Factors controlling mangrove distribution within its range are still to be identified although absences were partly explained by human perturbations.     

Possible effects of global climate change on the ecosystem of Lake Tanganyika

Any change in the air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, and incoming solar radiation induced by increasing greenhouse gasses and climate change will directly influence lakes and other water bodies. The influence can cause changes in the physical (water temperature, stratification, transparency), chemical (nutrient loading, oxygen) and biological (structure and functioning of the ecosystem) components of the Lake. In this work an influence of the likely effects of the climate change on the above three components of Lake Tanganyika are studied by means of a simple ecological model. Simulations for the years 2002–2009 have been performed using the wind and solar radiation data from the National Centres for Environmental Protection (NCEP) reanalysis. Various possible climatic scenarios are studied by changing the surface layer depth, its temperature and the wind stress. Any change in any of the above physical forcing parameters modifies the timing and intensity of the dry season peaks of the biogeochemical parameters. It is seen that the gross production increases as temperature of the surface layer increases and its depth decreases. High temperature and low wind stress, reduces the biomass. The effects of a slight increase in lake water temperature on the Lake Tanganyika ecosystem might be mitigated by increased windiness, if the latter was sufficient to induce greater mixing.     

蝴蝶对全球气候变化响应的研究综述

全球气候变化以及生物对其响应已引起人们的广泛关注。在众多生物中,蝴蝶被公认为是对全球气候变化最敏感的指示物种之一。已有大量的研究结果表明,蝴蝶类群已经在地理分布范围、生活史特性以及生物多样性变化等方面对全球气候变化作出了响应。根据全球范围内蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应的研究资料,尤其是欧美一些长期监测的研究成果,综述了蝴蝶类群在物种分布格局、物候、繁殖、形态特征变化、种群动态以及物种多样性变化等方面对气候变化的响应特征,认为温度升高和极端天气是导致蝴蝶物种分布格局和种群动态变化的主要因素。在此基础上,展望了我国开展蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应方面研究的未来发展趋势。     

Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores

This review examines the direct effects of climate change on insect herbivores. Temperature is identified as the dominant abiotic factor directly affecting herbivorous insects. There is little evidence of any direct effects of CO₂ or UVB. Direct impacts of precipitation have been largely neglected in current research on climate change. Temperature directly affects development, survival, range and abundance. Species with a large geographical range will tend to be less affected. The main effect of temperature in temperate regions is to influence winter survival; at more northerly latitudes, higher temperatures extend the summer season, increasing the available thermal budget for growth and reproduction. Photoperiod is the dominant cue for the seasonal synchrony of temperate insects, but their thermal requirements may differ at different times of year. Interactions between photoperiod and temperature determine phenology; the two factors do not necessarily operate in tandem. Insect herbivores show a number of distinct life‐history strategies to exploit plants with different growth forms and strategies, which will be differentially affected by climate warming. There are still many challenges facing biologists in predicting and monitoring the impacts of climate change. Future research needs to consider insect herbivore phenotypic and genotypic flexibility, their responses to global change parameters operating in concert, and awareness that some patterns may only become apparent in the longer term.     

全球气候变化对农业生态系统的影响研究进展

全球大气中CO2浓度升高、气温升高及降水量的变化等是全球气候变化对农业生产和农业生态系统影响最为重要的几个生态因子,其影响主要表现在对农作物产量、生长发育、病虫害、农业水资源及农业生态系统结构和功能等方面.在过去的几十年,全球气候变化已对我国农业和农业生态系统,特别是我国北方旱区农业造成重大影响,其中不少影响是负面的或不利的.本文综述了全球气候变化对农业水资源、农田土壤养分变化、农作物生长发育、农作物病虫害与杂草、粮食安全及农业生态系统的结构和功能等方面的影响.针对21世纪全球气候变化对我国农业生产和农业生态系统带来的挑战,探讨了今后研究的重点和难点问题.