Characterization of Households and its Implications for the Vegetation of Urban Ecosystems

Our understanding of the dynamics of urban ecosystems can be enhanced by examining the multidimensional social characteristics of households. To this end, we investigated the relative significance of three social theories of household structure—population, lifestyle behavior, and social stratification—to the distribution of vegetation cover in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. Our ability to assess the relative significance of these theories depended on fine-scale social and biophysical data. We distinguished among vegetation in three areas hypothesized to be differentially linked to these social theories: riparian areas, private lands, and public rights-of-way (PROWs). Using a multimodel inferential approach, we found that variation of vegetation cover in riparian areas was not explained by any of the three theories and that lifestyle behavior was the best predictor of vegetation cover on private lands. Surprisingly, lifestyle behavior was also the best predictor of vegetation cover in PROWs. The inclusion of a quadratic term for housing age significantly improved the models. Based on these research results, we question the exclusive use of income and education as the standard variables to explain variations in vegetation cover in urban ecological systems. We further suggest that the management of urban vegetation can be improved by developing environmental marketing strategies that address the underlying household motivations for and participation in local land management.     

山西植被空间格局及演替简

在ArcGIS软件中采集1984年和2005年山西植被类型的图形,得到山西群系、森林、灌丛、草本植被及栽培植被的图形及面积,用叠置分析和景观格局分析方法研究植被的空间分布及其演替、空间格局及其变化。森林在西南部相对集中分布,在西北角增加明显,它在山西植被中所占面积及比重都最小,最为破碎。油松林在山西森林中占优势,恢复森林主要是油松林、小叶杨林、辽东栎林。1984年灌丛的面积在植被中最大,所占比例也最高,超过50%,集中连片分布面积较大,但灌丛缩减迅速,主要在中南部,在山西植被中遭破坏最为严重。沙棘、虎榛子灌丛和黄栌、连翘灌丛对灌丛的影响最大。草本植被主要在北部减少,在中南部分散增加,更加破碎。白羊草草丛在山西草本植被中占优势,蒿、禾草草原和百里香、禾草草原变化最大。栽培植被明显增加,在植被中所占比重急剧增加,成为山西优势植被。森林、栽培植被分别增加24.3%、71.5%,而灌丛、草本植被却分别减少70.3%,15.6%,演替主要是人为因素造成的。     

1982-2012年中国植被覆盖时空变化特征

利用GIMMS NDVI、MODIS NDVI和气象数据,辅以趋势分析、分段回归以及相关分析等方法,分析了1982—2012年我国植被NDVI时空变化特征及其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)近30年我国植被NDVI呈缓慢增加趋势,增速为0.2%/10a;植被覆盖变化阶段性特征明显:即1982—1997年和1997—2012年植被覆盖均呈显著增加趋势,增速分别为1.2%/10a和0.6%/10a,均通过显著水平0.05的检验。(2)空间上,我国陕北黄土高原、西藏中西部以及新疆准格尔盆地等地区植被NDVI呈显著增加趋势;而东北地区的大、小兴安岭和长白山、新疆北部的天山和阿尔泰山以及黄河源和秦巴山区等地区植被NDVI呈显著下降趋势,其中东北地区和新疆北部山区下降尤为显著,说明近年来我国中高纬度山区植被活动呈下降趋势。(3)不同区域植被对气温和降水的响应存在差异,我国北方地区植被对气温具有较长的响应持续时间;而除云南外,南方地区植被对降水的响应时间存在1—3个月的响应时间,且随着滞后时间的延长,相关性逐渐增大。(4)我国植被覆盖增加是气候变化和人类活动共同驱动的结果,尤其是1999年之后人类活动影响逐渐加强。而我国东北地区和新疆北部山区植被覆盖的下降可能是由于该区降水减少所致,东南沿海地区植被退化则受城市化影响显著。     

秦岭山地植被净初级生产力及对气候变化的响应

基于1999~2009年的NDVI数据和气象数据,利用CASA模型对秦岭山地植被净初级生产力（Net primary productivity,NPP）进行模拟估算,并分析了秦岭NPP的时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：1999~2009年11年间秦岭山地的平均年NPP为542.24 gC·m^-2·a^-1;研究期内秦岭NPP呈显著增长趋势（P<0.01）,2008年最高（718.77 gC·m^-2·a^-1）,2001年最低（471.78 gC·m^-2·a^-1）;四季对全年NPP的贡献率大小依次为夏季（49.90%）>春季（26.16%）>秋季（18.87%）>冬季（5.07%）;月NPP与温度和降水都显著相关,但与温度的相关性更高,月水平上温度对NPP的影响比降水大;生长季期间NPP与温度和降水的相关性在空间分布上都以正相关为主。     

Carbon fluxes, nitrogen cycling, and soil microbial communities in adjacent urban, native and agricultural ecosystems

Urban ecosystems are expanding globally, and assessing the ecological consequences of urbanization is critical to understanding the biology of local and global change related to land use. We measured carbon (C) fluxes, nitrogen (N) cycling, and soil microbial community structure in a replicated (n=3) field experiment comparing urban lawns to corn, wheat–fallow, and unmanaged shortgrass steppe ecosystems in northern Colorado. The urban and corn sites were irrigated and fertilized. Wheat and shortgrass steppe sites were not fertilized or irrigated. Aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in urban ecosystems (383±11 C m^?2 yr^?1) was four to five times greater than wheat or shortgrass steppe but significantly less than corn (537±44 C m^?2 yr^?1). Soil respiration (2777±273 g C m^?2 yr^?1) and total belowground C allocation (2602±269 g C m^?2 yr^?1) in urban ecosystems were both 2.5 to five times greater than any other land‐use type. We estimate that for a large (1578 km²) portion of Larimer County, Colorado, urban lawns occupying 6.4% of the land area account for up to 30% of regional ANPP and 24% of regional soil respiration from land‐use types that we sampled. The rate of N cycling from urban lawn mower clippings to the soil surface was comparable with the rate of N export in harvested corn (both ～12–15 g N m^?2 yr^?1). A one‐time measurement of microbial community structure via phospholipid fatty acid analysis suggested that land‐use type had a large impact on microbial biomass and a small impact on the relative abundance of broad taxonomic groups of microorganisms. Our data are consistent with several other studies suggesting that urbanization of arid and semiarid ecosystems leads to enhanced C cycling rates that alter regional C budgets.     

Global Environmental Change and Population Health: Progress and Challenges

Escalating global environmental change (GEC) over the past century has been driven largely by rapid industrialization, population growth, overconsumption of natural resources, and associated waste disposal challenges, as well as the inappropriate uses of technology. These changes are already having and will increasingly continue to have significant impacts on human health and well-being. How to tackle these issues is an important challenge to scientists, policy-makers, and the general public. Scientific consensus now exists that GEC and population health are linked, even though the details and mechanisms underlying this link remain to be both explicated and quantified. In this article we provide an overview of progress and challenges in the area of GEC and population health since the late 1980s, highlighting some of the main landmarks in this area and recommending directions for future research.     

Nitrogen Fluxes and Retention in Urban Watershed Ecosystems

Although the watershed approach has long been used to study whole-ecosystem function, it has seldom been applied to study human-dominated systems, especially those dominated by urban and suburban land uses. Here we present 3 years of data on nitrogen (N) losses from one completely forested, one agricultural, and six urban/suburban watersheds, and input–output N budgets for suburban, forested, and agricultural watersheds. The work is a product of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, a long-term study of urban and suburban ecosystems, and a component of the US National Science Foundations long-term ecological research (LTER) network. As expected, urban and suburban watersheds had much higher N losses than did the completely forested watershed, with N yields ranging from 2.9 to 7.9 kg N ha^–1 y^–1 in the urban and suburban watersheds compared with less than 1 kg N ha^–1 y^–1 in the completely forested watershed. Yields from urban and suburban watersheds were lower than those from an agricultural watershed (13–19.8 kg N ha^–1 y^–1). Retention of N in the suburban watershed was surprisingly high, 75% of inputs, which were dominated by home lawn fertilizer (14.4 kg N ha^–1 y^–1) and atmospheric deposition (11.2 kg N ha^–1 y^–1). Detailed analysis of mechanisms of N retention, which must occur in the significant amounts of pervious surface present in urban and suburban watersheds, and which include storage in soils and vegetation and gaseous loss, is clearly warranted.     

Vegetation, climatic changes and net carbon sequestration in a North-Scandinavian subarctic mire over 30 years

This study deals with changes in the plant cover and its net carbon sequestration over 30 years on a subarctic Sphagnum-mire with permafrost near Abisko, northernmost Sweden, in relation to climatic variations during the same period. Aerial colour infrared images from 1970 and 2000 were compared to reveal changes in surface structure and vegetation over the whole mire, while the plant populations were studied within a smaller, mainly ombrotrophic part. The results demonstrated two processes, namely (1) that wet sites dominated by graminoids expanded while hummock sites dominated by dwarf shrubs receded, and (2) that on the hummocks lichens expanded while evergreen dwarf shrubs and mosses decreased, both processes creating an instability in the surface structure. A successive degradation of the permafrost is the likely reason for the increase in wet areas, while the changes in the hummock vegetation might have resulted from higher spring temperatures giving rise to an intensified snow melt, exposing the vegetation to frost drought. Because of the vegetation changes, the annual litter input of carbon to the mire has increased slightly, by 4 g m⁻² a⁻¹ (7.3%), over these years while an increased erosion has resulted in a loss of 40–80 Mg carbon or 7–17 g m⁻² a⁻¹ for the entire mire over the same period. As the recalcitrant proportion of the litter has decreased, the decay rate in the acrotelm might be expected to increase in the future.     

Space,Time, Rhetoric and Agricultural Change in the Transition Zone of Ghana

This paper examines change within farming systems in the Brong Ahafo Region in Ghana, and the impact of agricultural modernization and mechanization on the regional economy and local farming systems. It combines anthropological, historical, and remote sensing techniques to document changes in farming practice and land use and land cover. It argues that change is not the product of simple evolutionary sequences of responses to population pressures or adoption of modern technologies, but arises out of a complex set of factors interacting within wider regional economies, which are increasingly commodified and commercialized and subject to global market pressures. These include technical, institutional, market, movements of labor, and transport infrastructure development dimensions, which often create new opportunities for local farmers other than those envisaged in agricultural development policies. Tracing the opening up of the transition zone over the last 40–50 years through the development of state farms and mechanized synthetic agriculture, the paper examines the changing fortunes of farming systems within a radius of 30–40 km from agricultural technology hubs and the implications for models of agricultural development.

Patterns and trends in tropical forest cover

Abstract

In the 2005 edition of the Global Forest Resources Assessment of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, a moderate negative trend was reported regarding the change of tropical forests: the net annual change was estimated at ?11.8 million ha for the period 2000–2005, while the rate was ?11.65 for the previous decade. Tropical Asia showed the highest rate and most negative trend, passing from ?0.8% to ?0.96% per year. The remote sensing survey done for previous Forest Resource Assessment editions covering the period 1980–2000 revealed distinct change processes in the three tropical regions. Survey results indicated that socio‐economic and cultural aspects that characterise and differentiate the geographic regions determine the nature of the change processes and underlying cause–effect mechanisms, while the ecological setting determines the intensity of change and reveals its environmental implications. A comparison of deforestation processes of the two decades indicated an on‐going process of “radicalisation” of the dynamics determined by an increasing frequency of high‐gradient changes (e.g. total clearing rather than fragmentation and degradation) and by a shift of deforestation fronts towards wetter zones, with a consequent higher per‐hectare carbon emission associated with deforested areas.     

Ecological Forecasting and the Urbanization of Stream Ecosystems: Challenges for Economists,Hydrologists, Geomorphologists,and Ecologists

The quantity and quality of freshwater resources are now being seriously threatened, partly as a result of extensive worldwide changes in land use, and scientists are often called upon by policy makers and managers to predict the ecological consequences that these alterations will have for stream ecosystems. The effects of the urbanization of stream ecosystems in the United States over the next 20 years are of particular concern. To address this issue, we present a multidisciplinary research agenda designed to improve our forecasting of the effects of land-use change on stream ecosystems. Currently, there are gaps in both our knowledge and the data that make it difficult to link the disparate models used by economists, hydrologists, geomorphologists, and ecologists. We identify a number of points that practitioners in each discipline were not comfortable compromising on—for example, by assuming an average condition for a given variable. We provide five instructive examples of the limitations to our ability to forecast the fate of stream and riverine ecosystems one drawn from each modeling step: (a) Accurate economic methods to forecast land-use changes over long periods (such as 20 years) are not available, especially not at spatially explicit scales; (b) geographic data are not always available at the appropriate resolution and are not always organized in categories that are hydrologically, ecologically, or economically meaningful; (c) the relationship between low flows and land use is sometimes hard to establish in anthropogenically affected catchments; (d) bed mobility, suspended sediment load, and channel form—all of which are important for ecological communities in streams—are difficult to predict; and (e) species distributions in rivers are not well documented, and the data that do exist are not always publicly available or have not been sampled at accurate scales, making it difficult to model ecological responses to specified levels of environmental change. Meeting these challenges will require both interdisciplinary cooperation and a reviewed commitment to intradisciplinary research in the fields of economics, geography, quantitative spatial analysis, hydrology, geomorphology, and ecology. Present address for L.C.T.: Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology Department, University of California–Davis, Davis, California 95616, USA.     

Change and Continuity in a Pastoralist Community in the High Peruvian Andes

Pastoralists of the high Andes Mountains raise mixed herds of camelids and sheep. This study evaluates the land use of herdsmen who are confronted by both socioeconomic and climate changes in Huancavelica, central Peru. Land use/ land cover change (LULCC) was measured through satellite imagery, and pastoralists’ capacity to adapt to socioenvironmental changes was evaluated through interviews and archival research. The most dynamic LULCCs between 1990 and 2000 were large increases in wetlands and a loss of permanent ice. We conclude that the people’s responses to these changes will depend on availability of institutions to manage pastures, other household resources, and perceptions of these biophysical changes. Socioenvironmental change is not new in the study area, but current shifts will likely force this community to alter its rules of access to pastures, its economic rationales in regards to commodities produced, and the degree of dependence on seasonal wage labor. In this scenario, households with a greater amount of livestock will fare better in terms of assets and capital that will allow them to benefit from the increasing presence of a market economy in a landscape undergoing climate change.

2000-2008年中国东北地区植被净初级生产力的模拟及季节变化

利用GLOPEM-CEVSA模型模拟并分析了中国东北地区2000-2008年植被净初级生产力(NPP)时空分布格局及其影响因素,并以4个森林生态站点(大兴安岭、老爷岭、凉水和长白山森林生态站)为例研究了东北地区森林NPP季节变化特征及其环境驱动.结果表明:2000-2008年,东北地区植被年均NPP为445 g C·m-2·a-1;整个研究区沿长白山山脉到小兴安岭山脉地区以及三江平原部分地区的NPP最高,沿长白山山脉到小兴安岭山脉西侧的辽河平原、松嫩平原东部、三江平原和大兴安岭地区次之,西部稀疏草原和荒漠地区的NPP最低.东北地区森林生态系统年均NPP最高,其次为灌丛、农田和草地,荒漠最低.森林生态系统中,针阔混交林年均NPP最大(722 g C·m-2·a-1),落叶针叶林年均NPP最小(451 g C·m-2·a-1).研究期间,森林NPP无显著年际变化,其中2007、2008年较往年NPP大幅增加,很可能与该地区期间气温上升有关(较往年偏高1 ℃=～2℃).东北地区森林自北向南生长季开始时间逐渐提前,生长季变长.     

Comparison of phenology trends by land cover class: a case study in the Great Basin, USA

Direct impacts of human land use and indirect impacts of anthropogenic climate change may alter land cover and associated ecosystem function, affecting ecological goods and services. Considerable work has been done to identify long‐term global trends in vegetation greenness, which is associated with primary productivity, using remote sensing. Trend analysis of satellite observations is subject to error, and ecosystem change can be confused with interannual variability. However, the relative trends of land cover classes may hold clues about differential ecosystem response to environmental forcing. Our aim was to identify phenological variability and 10‐year trends for the major land cover classes in the Great Basin. This case study involved two steps: a regional, phenology‐based land cover classification and an identification of phenological variability and 10‐year trends stratified by land cover class. The analysis used a 10‐year time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite data to assess regional scale land cover variability and identify change. The phenology‐based regional classification was more detailed and accurate than national or global products. Phenological variability over the 10‐year period was high, with substantial shifts in timing of start of season of up to 9 weeks. The mean long‐term trends of montane land cover classes were significantly different from valley land cover classes due to a poor response of montane shrubland and pinyon‐juniper woodland to the early 1990s drought. The differential response during the 1990s suggests that valley ecosystems may be more resilient and montane ecosystems more susceptible to prolonged drought. This type of regional‐scale land cover analysis is necessary to characterize current patterns of land cover phenology, distinguish between anthropogenically driven land cover change and interannual variability, and identify ecosystems potentially susceptible to regional and global change.     

Effects of Land Cover on Stream Ecosystems: Roles of Empirical Models and Scaling Issues

We built empirical models to estimate the effects of land cover on stream ecosystems in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and to evaluate the spatial scales over which such models are most effective. Predictive variables included land cover in the watershed, in the streamside corridor, and near the study site, and the number and location of dams and point sources in the watershed. Response variables were annual nitrate flux; species richness of fish, benthic macroinvertebrates, and aquatic plants; and cover of aquatic plants and riparian vegetation. All data were taken from publicly available databases, mostly over the Internet. Land cover was significantly correlated with all ecological response variables. Modeled R² ranged from 0.07 to 0.5, but large data sets often allowed us to estimate with acceptable precision the regression coefficients that express the change in ecological conditions associated with a unit change in land cover. Dam- and point-source variables were ineffective at predicting ecological conditions in streams and rivers, probably because of inadequacies in the data sets. The spatial perspective (whole watershed, streamside corridor, or local) most effective at predicting ecological response variables varied across response variables, apparently in concord with the mechanisms that control each of these variables. We found some evidence that predictive power fell in very small watersheds (less than 1–10 km²), suggesting that the spatial arrangement of landscape patches may become critical at these small scales. Empirical models can replace, constrain, or be combined with more mechanistic models to understand the effects of land-cover change on stream ecosystems. Present address for L.C. Thompson: Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology Department, University of California, Davis, CA 95616.     

Forest Health Monitoring and Forest Inventory Analysis Programs Monitor Climate Change Effects in Forest Ecosystems

The Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) and Forest Inventory and Analyses (FIA) programs are integrated biological monitoring systems that use nationally standardized methods to evaluate and report on the health and sustainability of forest ecosystems in the United States. Many of the anticipated changes in forest ecosystems from climate change were also issues addressed in sections of FHM's National Technical Report 1991 to 1998. The integrated FHM and FIA monitoring systems are currently establishing baseline conditions (status and change) in most States for many of the expected effects, and are projected to have full implementation for all States and Territories in 2003. These monitoring systems utilize a broad suite of indicators of key ecosystem components and processes that are responsive to many biotic and abiotic stressors, including those anticipated from climate change. These programs will contribute essential information for many decades for many of the anticipated changes in forest ecosystem from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, changing climatic scenarios, and extreme weather events that are probable in the next 30 to 100 years.     

Novel Approaches to Study Climate Change Effects on Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Field: Drought and Passive Nighttime Warming

This article describes new approaches for manipulation of temperature and water input in the field. Nighttime warming was created by reflection of infrared radiation. Automatically operated reflective curtains covered the vegetation at night to reduce heat loss to the atmosphere. This approach mimicked the way climate change, caused by increased cloudiness and increased greenhouse gas emissions, alters the heat balance of ecosystems. Drought conditions were created by automatically covering the vegetation with transparent curtains during rain events over a 2–5-month period. The experimental approach has been evaluated at four European sites across a climate gradient. All sites were dominated (more than 50%) by shrubs of the ericaceous family. Within each site, replicated 4-m × 5-m plots were established for control, warming, and drought treatments and the effect on climate variables recorded. Results over a two-year period indicate that the warming treatment was successful in achieving an increase of the minimum temperatures by 0.4–1.2°C in the air and soil. The drought treatment resulted in a soil moisture reduction of 33%–82% at the peak of the drought. The data presented demonstrate that the approach minimizes unintended artifacts with respect to water balance, moisture conditions, and light, while causing a small but significant reduction in wind speed by the curtains. Temperature measurements demonstrated that the edge effects associated with the treatments were small. Our method provides a valuable tool for investigating the effects of climate change in remote locations with minimal artifacts.     

Climate Change Effects on Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Budget in the United States

The Kyoto protocol has focused the attention of the public and policymarkers on the earth's carbon (C) budget. Previous estimates of the impacts of vegetation change have been limited to equilibrium “snapshots” that could not capture nonlinear or threshold effects along the trajectory of change. New models have been designed to complement equilibrium models and simulate vegetation succession through time while estimating variability in the C budget and responses to episodic events such as drought and fire. In addition, a plethora of future climate scenarios has been used to produce a bewildering variety of simulated ecological responses. Our objectives were to use an equilibrium model (Mapped Atmosphere–Plant–Soil system, or MAPSS) and a dynamic model (MC1) to (a) simulate changes in potential equilibrium vegetation distribution under historical conditions and across a wide gradient of future temperature changes to look for consistencies and trends among the many future scenarios, (b) simulate time-dependent changes in vegetation distribution and its associated C pools to illustrate the possible trajectories of vegetation change near the high and low ends of the temperature gradient, and (c) analyze the extent of the US area supporting a negative C balance. Both models agree that a moderate increase in temperature produces an increase in vegetation density and carbon sequestration across most of the US with small changes in vegetation types. Large increases in temperature cause losses of C with large shifts in vegetation types. In the western states, particularly southern California, precipitation and thus vegetation density increase and forests expand under all but the hottest scenarios. In the eastern US, particularly the Southeast, forests expand under the more moderate scenarios but decline under more severe climate scenarios, with catastrophic fires potentially causing rapid vegetation conversions from forest to savanna. Both models show that there is a potential for either positive or negative feedbacks to the atmosphere depending on the level of warming in the climate change scenarios. Received 12 May 2000; accepted 22 November 2000.