Life‐history responses of a freshwater rotifer to copper pollution

In organisms with dormant stages, life‐history responses to past pollution can be studied retrospectively. Here, we study such responses in a rotifer (Brachionus calyciflorus) from the once heavily copper‐polluted Lake Orta (Italy). We extracted resting eggs from sediments, established clonal lineages from hatchlings, and exposed newborns of these lineages to one of three copper concentrations that each mimicked a specific period in the lake''s pollution history. For each rotifer, we daily collected life‐table data. We then estimated treatment‐specific vital rates and used a stage‐structured population model to project population growth rate λ. We also estimated elasticities of λ to vital rates and contributions of vital rates to observed Δλ between copper treatments. As expected, λ decreased with increasing copper concentration. This decrease resulted mostly from a decline in juvenile survival rate (S_J ) and partly from a decline in the survival rate of asexually reproducing females (S_A ). Maturation rate, and with one exception fecundity, also declined but did not contribute consistently to Δλ. λ was most elastic to S_J and S_A , indicating that survival rates were under stronger selection than maturation rate and fecundity. Together, our results indicate that variation in juvenile survival is a key component in the rotifers’ copper response. The consistent decrease in S_J with increasing copper stress and the sensitivity of λ to that decrease also suggest that juvenile survival is a useful indicator of population performance under environmental pollution.     

Multiple coping strategies maintain stability of a small mammal population in a resource‐restricted environment

In semi‐arid environments, aperiodic rainfall pulses determine plant production and resource availability for higher trophic levels, creating strong bottom‐up regulation. The influence of climatic factors on population vital rates often shapes the dynamics of small mammal populations in such resource‐restricted environments. Using a 21‐year biannual capture–recapture dataset (1993 to 2014), we examined the impacts of climatic factors on the population dynamics of the brush mouse (Peromyscus boylii) in semi‐arid oak woodland of coastal‐central California. We applied Pradel''s temporal symmetry model to estimate capture probability (p), apparent survival (φ), recruitment (f), and realized population growth rate (λ) of the brush mouse and examined the effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño on these demographic parameters. The population was stable during the study period with a monthly realized population growth rate of 0.993 ± SE 0.032, but growth varied over time from 0.680 ± 0.054 to 1.450 ± 0.083. Monthly survival estimates averaged 0.789 ± 0.005 and monthly recruitment estimates averaged 0.175 ± 0.038. Survival probability and realized population growth rate were positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, recruitment was negatively correlated with rainfall and positively correlated with temperature. Brush mice maintained their population through multiple coping strategies, with high recruitment during warmer and drier periods and higher survival during cooler and wetter conditions. Although climatic change in coastal‐central California will likely favor recruitment over survival, varying strategies may serve as a mechanism by which brush mice maintain resilience in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that rainfall and temperature are both important drivers of brush mouse population dynamics and will play a significant role in predicting the future viability of brush mice under a changing climate.     

Demographic responses to climate‐driven variation in habitat quality across the annual cycle of a migratory bird species

The demography and dynamics of migratory bird populations depend on patterns of movement and habitat quality across the annual cycle. We leveraged archival GPS‐tagging data, climate data, remote‐sensed vegetation data, and bird‐banding data to better understand the dynamics of black‐headed grosbeak (Pheucticus melanocephalus) populations in two breeding regions, the coast and Central Valley of California (Coastal California) and the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Sierra Nevada), over 28 years (1992–2019). Drought conditions across the annual cycle and rainfall timing on the molting grounds influenced seasonal habitat characteristics, including vegetation greenness and phenology (maturity dates). We developed a novel integrated population model with population state informed by adult capture data, recruitment rates informed by age‐specific capture data and climate covariates, and survival rates informed by adult capture–mark–recapture data and climate covariates. Population size was relatively variable among years for Coastal California, where numbers of recruits and survivors were positively correlated, and years of population increase were largely driven by recruitment. In the Sierra Nevada, population size was more consistent and showed stronger evidence of population regulation (numbers of recruits and survivors negatively correlated). Neither region showed evidence of long‐term population trend. We found only weak support for most climate–demographic rate relationships. However, recruitment rates for the Coastal California region were higher when rainfall was relatively early on the molting grounds and when wintering grounds were relatively cool and wet. We suggest that our approach of integrating movement, climate, and demographic data within a novel modeling framework can provide a useful method for better understanding the dynamics of broadly distributed migratory species.     

Vital rates of two small populations of brown bears in Canada and range‐wide relationship between population size and trend

Identifying mechanisms of population change is fundamental for conserving small and declining populations and determining effective management strategies. Few studies, however, have measured the demographic components of population change for small populations of mammals (<50 individuals). We estimated vital rates and trends in two adjacent but genetically distinct, threatened brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations in British Columbia, Canada, following the cessation of hunting. One population had approximately 45 resident bears but had some genetic and geographic connectivity to neighboring populations, while the other population had <25 individuals and was isolated. We estimated population‐specific vital rates by monitoring survival and reproduction of telemetered female bears and their dependent offspring from 2005 to 2018. In the larger, connected population, independent female survival was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.96–1.00) and the survival of cubs in their first year was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.62–0.95). In the smaller, isolated population, independent female survival was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.64–0.93) and first‐year cub survival was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.11–0.67). Reproductive rates did not differ between populations. The large differences in age‐specific survival estimates resulted in a projected population increase in the larger population (λ = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04–1.13) and population decrease in the smaller population (λ = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.72–0.95). Low female survival in the smaller population was the result of both continued human‐caused mortality and an unusually high rate of natural mortality. Low cub survival may have been due to inbreeding and the loss of genetic diversity common in small populations, or to limited resources. In a systematic literature review, we compared our population trend estimates with those reported for other small populations (<300 individuals) of brown bears. Results suggest that once brown bear populations become small and isolated, populations rarely increase and, even with intensive management, recovery remains challenging.     

Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.     

Temperature‐induced multi‐species cohort effects in sympatric snakes

In reptiles, reproductive maturity is often determined by size rather than age. Consequently, growth early in life may influence population dynamics through effects on generation time and survival to reproduction. Because reproductive phenology and pre‐ and post‐natal growth are temperature dependent, environmental conditions may induce multi‐species cohort effects on body size in sympatric reptiles. I present evidence of this using 10 years of neonatal size data for three sympatric viviparous snakes, Dekay''s Brown snakes (Storeria dekayi), Red‐bellied Snakes (S. occipitomaculata), and Common Garter snakes (Thamnophis sirtalis). End‐of‐season neonatal size varied in parallel across species such that snout–vent length was 36%–61% greater and mass was 65%–223% greater in years when gestating females could achieve higher April–May (vs. June–July or August–September) operative temperatures. Thus, temperature had a larger impact during follicular enlargement and ovulation than during gestation or post‐natal growth. Multi‐species cohort effects like these may affect population dynamics and the magnitude of these effects may increase with climate change.     

Low interannual precipitation has a greater negative effect than seedling herbivory on the population dynamics of a short‐lived shrub,Schiedea obovata

Climate projections forecast more extreme interannual climate variability over time, with an increase in the severity and duration of extreme drought and rainfall events. Based on bioclimatic envelope models, it is projected that changing precipitation patterns will drastically alter the spatial distributions and density of plants and be a primary driver of biodiversity loss. However, many other underlying mechanisms can impact plant vital rates (i.e., survival, growth, and reproduction) and population dynamics. In this study, we developed a size‐dependent integral projection model (IPM) to evaluate how interannual precipitation and mollusk herbivory influence the dynamics of a Hawaii endemic short‐lived shrub, Schiedea obovata (Caryophyllaceae). Assessing how wet season precipitation effects population dynamics it critical, as it is the timeframe when most of the foliar growth occurs, plants flower and fruit, and seedlings establish. Temporal variation in wet season precipitation had a greater effect than mollusk herbivory on S. obovata population growth rate , and the impact of interannual precipitation on vital rates shifted across plant ontogeny. Furthermore, wet season precipitation influenced multiple vital rates in contrasting ways and the effect of precipitation on the survival of larger vegetative and reproductively mature individuals contributed the most to variation in the population growth rate. Among all combination of wet season precipitation and herbivory intensities, the only scenario that led to a growing population was when high wet precipitation was associated with low herbivory. Our study highlights the importance of evaluating how abiotic factors and plant–consumer interactions influence an organism across its life cycle to fully understand the underpinning mechanisms that structure its spatial and temporal distribution and abundance. Our results also illustrate that for short‐lived species, like S. obovata, seedling herbivory can have less of an effect on the dynamics of plant populations than decreased interannual precipitation.     

Age structure of amphibian populations with endemic chytridiomycosis,across climatic regions with markedly different infection risk

Threatening processes, such as disease, can drive major changes in population demographics of the host. Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has led to the decline of at least 500 amphibian species across the globe and has been shown to truncate host age structure by lowering adult survival rates. This results in heavy reliance on annual recruitment and the inability to recover in the event of periodic recruitment failure. We used skeletochronology to determine the age structure, growth, and survival rates of populations of an endangered amphibian, Litoria raniformis, with endemic chytridiomycosis, across two climatically disparate regions in south‐eastern Australia: semi‐arid and temperate. Contrary to predictions, populations in the semi‐arid region (in which chytrid prevalence is substantially lower due to high temperatures) displayed a more truncated age structure than populations in the temperate study regions. Maximum recorded age was only two years in the semi‐arid region compared with up to four years in the temperate region. Wetland hydroperiod and average seasonal air temperature were correlated with age, and males had a slightly higher survival rate than females (0.31 for males and 0.27 for females). Despite the previously documented differences in chytrid prevalence between the two climatic regions, water availability and wetland hydroperiods appear the over‐riding determinants of the age structure and survival rates of L. raniformis. Targeted management which ensures water availability and improves survival of 1‐year‐old frogs into their second and third breeding season would reduce the impact of stochastic events on L. raniformis, and this may be true for numerous frog species susceptible to chytridiomycosis.     

Fitness comparison of Plutella xylostella on original and marginal hosts using age‐stage,two‐sex life tables

The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella, is an important agricultural pest that severely damages cruciferous vegetables. Although previously considered a threat only to Brassica species, P. xylostella has been observed to feed on noncruciferous vegetables. Here, we established a population of P. xylostella on the pea Pisum sativum (PxP population). We compared this PxP population''s performance on the pea host plant to a population (PxR) reared on the original host plant radish (Raphanus sativus) for several generations using an age‐stage, two‐sex life table and analyzed the correlations between different fitness parameters. In the 1st generation of the PxP population, survival rate of immature stage was 17%, while the survival rate of PxR was 68%; the duration of the 4th larval instar (5.30 d) and mortality (25%) of this generation were significantly longer (2.8 d) and higher (1%) than that of PxR, respectively (both p < .001). Upon long‐term acclimation, the PxP fitness improved significantly, especially that the survival rate of immature stages increased to approximately 60% in the 15th, 30th, and 45th generations. However, PxP feeding on pea exhibited poorer fitness with longer larval developmental time, shorter total life span, lighter pupa, and lower fecundity in different generations compared with PxP feeding on radish. PxP feeding on pea also showed a significantly lower intrinsic rate of increase (r), net reproduction rate (R ₀), finite increase rate (λ), and longer mean generation time (T) than PxP feeding on radish in all generations tested. Significant positive correlations were observed between pupal weight and female fecundity in pea‐fed populations, and between female longevity and female fecundity in pea‐fed and radish‐fed populations. Our findings suggest that P. xylostella adaptation to pea does not improve overall fitness compared with the original host radish, making pea a marginal host for P. xylostella.     

In situ adaptive response to climate and habitat quality variation: spatial and temporal variation in European badger (Meles meles) body weight

Variation in climatic and habitat conditions can affect populations through a variety of mechanisms, and these relationships can act at different temporal and spatial scales. Using post‐mortem badger body weight records from 15 878 individuals captured across the Republic of Ireland (7224 setts across ca. 15 000 km²; 2009–2012), we employed a hierarchical multilevel mixed model to evaluate the effects of climate (rainfall and temperature) and habitat quality (landscape suitability), while controlling for local abundance (unique badgers caught/sett/year). Body weight was affected strongly by temperature across a number of temporal scales (preceding month or season), with badgers being heavier if preceding temperatures (particularly during winter/spring) were warmer than the long‐term seasonal mean. There was less support for rainfall across different temporal scales, although badgers did exhibit heavier weights when greater rainfall occurred one or 2 months prior to capture. Badgers were also heavier in areas with higher landscape habitat quality, modulated by the number of individuals captured per sett, consistent with density‐dependent effects reducing weights. Overall, the mean badger body weight of culled individuals rose during the study period (2009–2012), more so for males than for females. With predicted increases in temperature, and rainfall, augmented by ongoing agricultural land conversion in this region, we project heavier individual badger body weights in the future. Increased body weight has been associated with higher fecundity, recruitment and survival rates in badgers, due to improved food availability and energetic budgets. We thus predict that climate change could increase the badger population across the Republic of Ireland. Nevertheless, we emphasize that, locally, populations could still be vulnerable to extreme weather variability coupled with detrimental agricultural practice, including population management.     

Building integral projection models with nonindependent vital rates

Population dynamics are functions of several demographic processes including survival, reproduction, somatic growth, and maturation. The rates or probabilities for these processes can vary by time, by location, and by individual. These processes can co‐vary and interact to varying degrees, e.g., an animal can only reproduce when it is in a particular maturation state. Population dynamics models that treat the processes as independent may yield somewhat biased or imprecise parameter estimates, as well as predictions of population abundances or densities. However, commonly used integral projection models (IPMs) typically assume independence across these demographic processes. We examine several approaches for modelling between process dependence in IPMs and include cases where the processes co‐vary as a function of time (temporal variation), co‐vary within each individual (individual heterogeneity), and combinations of these (temporal variation and individual heterogeneity). We compare our methods to conventional IPMs, which treat vital rates independent, using simulations and a case study of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). In particular, our results indicate that correlation between vital rates can moderately affect variability of some population‐level statistics. Therefore, including such dependent structures is generally advisable when fitting IPMs to ascertain whether or not such between vital rate dependencies exist, which in turn can have subsequent impact on population management or life‐history evolution.     

Linking vital rates to invasiveness of a perennial herb

Invaders generally show better individual performance than non-invaders and, therefore, vital rates (survival, growth, fecundity) could potentially be used to predict species invasiveness outside their native range. Comparative studies have usually correlated vital rates with the invasiveness status of species, while few studies have investigated them in relation to population growth rate. Here, I examined the influence of five vital rates (plant establishment, survival, growth, flowering probability, seed production) and their variability (across geographic regions, habitat types, population sizes and population densities) on population growth rate (λ) using data from 37 populations of an invasive, iteroparous herb (Lupinus polyphyllus) in a part of its invaded range in Finland. Variation in vital rates was often related to habitat type and population density. The performance of the populations varied from declining to rapidly increasing independently of habitat type, population size or population density, but differed between regions. The population growth rate increased linearly with plant establishment, and with the survival and growth of vegetative individuals, while the survival of flowering individuals and annual seed production were not related to λ. The vital rates responsible for rapid population growth varied among populations. These findings highlight the importance of both regional and local conditions to plant population dynamics, demonstrating that individual vital rates do not necessarily correlate with λ. Therefore, to understand the role of individual vital rates in a species ability to invade, it is necessary to quantify their effect on population growth rate.     

Does climate variability influence the demography of wild primates? Evidence from long‐term life‐history data in seven species

Earth's rapidly changing climate creates a growing need to understand how demographic processes in natural populations are affected by climate variability, particularly among organisms threatened by extinction. Long‐term, large‐scale, and cross‐taxon studies of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability can be particularly valuable because they can reveal environmental drivers that affect multiple species over extensive regions. Few such data exist for animals with slow life histories, particularly in the tropics, where climate variation over large‐scale space is asynchronous. As our closest relatives, nonhuman primates are especially valuable as a resource to understand the roles of climate variability and climate change in human evolutionary history. Here, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability among wild primates. We ask whether primates are sensitive to global changes that are universal (e.g., higher temperature, large‐scale climate oscillations) or whether they are more sensitive to global change effects that are local (e.g., more rain in some places), which would complicate predictions of how primates in general will respond to climate change. To address these questions, we use a database of long‐term life‐history data for natural populations of seven primate species that have been studied for 29–52 years to investigate associations between vital rate variation, local climate variability, and global climate oscillations. Associations between vital rates and climate variability varied among species and depended on the time windows considered, highlighting the importance of temporal scale in detection of such effects. We found strong climate signals in the fertility rates of three species. However, survival, which has a greater impact on population growth, was little affected by climate variability. Thus, we found evidence for demographic buffering of life histories, but also evidence of mechanisms by which climate change could affect the fates of wild primates.     

Effects of temperature on life‐history traits of the newly invasive fall armyworm,Spodoptera frugiperda in Southeast China

In mid‐May, 2019, the fall armyworm (FAW) Spodoptera frugiperda invaded Jiangxi Province, China, and caused extensive damage to corn crops. However, little attention has been given to the life‐history traits of the FAW. In the present study, we systematically investigated the life‐history traits of the newly invasive FAW on corn leaves at 19, 22, 25, 28, and 31°C under a photoperiod of LD 15:9 hr. The FAW thrived on the corn leaves with short developmental periods, high survival rates of larvae and pupae, very high mating success rates, and high fecundity. The pupal developmental stage was significantly longer in males than females at all temperatures, thus resulting in a protogyny phenomenon. The pupal weight was heaviest after a relatively shorter larval development stage at a higher temperature (25°C); thus, the FAW did not follow the temperature–size rule. Females were smaller than males, indicating sexual size dimorphism. A small proportion of females delayed their pre‐oviposition period and began to lay eggs on the 7th to 9th day after adult emergence. There were positive relationships between pupal weight and larval developmental time and between adult weight and fecundity. There was a negative relationship between fecundity and longevity. These findings can help us to predict the population dynamics of the FAW on corn and to develop a suitable and practical management strategy.     

Analysis of interspecific competition in perennial plants using Life Table Response Experiments

The impact of interspecific competition is usually measured by its effect upon plant growth, neglecting impacts upon other stages of the life cycle such as fecundity which have a direct influence upon individual fitness and the asymptotic population growth rate of a population (λ). We used parameterized matrix models for three perennial plant species grown with and without interspecific competition to illustrate how the methodology of Life Table Response Experiments (LTRE) can be used to link any change in population dynamics to changes in any part of the life cycle. Plants were herbaceous grassland species grown for two years in a field experiment at Rothamsted Experimental Station, England. Interspecific competition reduced λ by over 90% in all species. Survival and growth were slightly affected by competition whereas plant fecundity was greatly reduced. Nearly all of the observed difference in λ between the competition treatments was explained by the fecundity terms, and more precisely by a large difference in the number of seeds, and a high sensitivity of λ to the germination rate. Whereas most competition studies focus on the measurement of change in individual fitness, our study illustrates how informative it is to take account not only of the effect of competition upon vital rates but also of how different vital rates affect population growth rate.     

The relative importance of direct and indirect effects of hunting mortality on the population dynamics of brown bears

There is increasing evidence of indirect effects of hunting on populations. In species with sexually selected infanticide (SSI), hunting may decrease juvenile survival by increasing male turnover. We aimed to evaluate the relative importance of direct and indirect effects of hunting via SSI on the population dynamics of the Scandinavian brown bear (Ursus arctos). We performed prospective and retrospective demographic perturbation analyses for periods with low and high hunting pressures. All demographic rates, except yearling survival, were lower under high hunting pressure, which led to a decline in population growth under high hunting pressure (λ = 0.975; 95% CI = 0.914–1.011). Hunting had negative indirect effects on the population through an increase in SSI, which lowered cub survival and possibly also fecundity rates. Our study suggests that SSI could explain 13.6% of the variation in population growth. Hunting also affected the relative importance of survival and fecundity of adult females for population growth, with fecundity being more important under low hunting pressure and survival more important under high hunting pressure. Our study sheds light on the importance of direct and indirect effects of hunting on population dynamics, and supports the contention that hunting can have indirect negative effects on populations through SSI.     

Plant performance in central and northern peripheral populations of the widespread Plantago coronopus

Peripheral populations have long been predicted to show lower vital rates, higher demographic fluctuations, and lower densities than central populations. However, recent research has questioned the existence of clear patterns across species’ ranges. To test these hypotheses, we monitored five central and six northern peripheral populations of the widespread herb Plantago coronopus along the European Atlantic coast during 5 yr. We estimated population density, and calculated mean values and temporal variability of four vital rates (survival, individual growth, fecundity and recruitment) in hundreds of plants in permanent plots. Central populations showed higher fecundity, whereas peripheral populations had higher recruitment per reproductive plant, indicating a higher overall reproductive success in the periphery. Central populations showed a marginally significant tendency for higher growth, and there were no differences between range positions in survival. Fecundity and growth were affected by intraspecific competition, and recruitment was affected by precipitation, highlighting the importance of local environmental conditions for population performance. Central and peripheral populations showed no significant differences in temporal variability of vital rates. Finally, density was significantly higher in peripheral than in central populations, in discrepancy with the abundant‐centre model. Density was correlated to seedling recruitment, which would counterbalance in peripheral populations the lower fecundity and the tendency for lower growth of established plants. Such compensations among vital rates might be particularly common in widespread plants, and advise against simplistic assumptions of population performance across ranges. The whole species’ life cycle should be considered, since different arrangements of vital rates are expected to maximize fitness in local environments. Our results show also the importance of discerning between geographical periphery and ecological marginality. In a context of climate‐induced range shifts, these considerations are crucial for the reliability of niche‐models and the management of plant peripheral populations.     

Multigenerational experimental simulation of climate change on an economically important insect pest

Long‐term multigenerational experimental simulations of climate change on insect pests of economically and socially important crops are crucial to anticipate challenges for feeding humanity in the not‐so‐far future. Mexican bean weevil Zabrotes subfasciatus, is a worldwide pest that attacks the common bean Phaseolus vulgaris seeds, in crops and storage. We designed a long term (i.e., over 10 generations), experimental simulation of climate change by increasing temperature and CO₂ air concentration in controlled conditions according to model predictions for 2100. Higher temperature and CO₂ concentrations favored pest''s egg‐to‐adult development survival, even at high female fecundity. It also induced a reduction of fat storage and increase of protein content but did not alter body size. After 10 generations of simulation, genetic adaptation was detected for total lipid content only, however, other traits showed signs of such process. Future experimental designs and methods similar to ours, are key for studying long‐term effects of climate change through multigenerational experimental designs.     

Different factors limit early‐ and late‐season windows of opportunity for monarch development

Seasonal windows of opportunity are intervals within a year that provide improved prospects for growth, survival, or reproduction. However, few studies have sufficient temporal resolution to examine how multiple factors combine to constrain the seasonal timing and extent of developmental opportunities. Here, we document seasonal changes in milkweed (Asclepias fascicularis)–monarch (Danaus plexippus) interactions with high resolution throughout the last three breeding seasons prior to a precipitous single‐year decline in the western monarch population. Our results show early‐ and late‐season windows of opportunity for monarch recruitment that were constrained by different combinations of factors. Early‐season windows of opportunity were characterized by high egg densities and low survival on a select subset of host plants, consistent with the hypothesis that early‐spring migrant female monarchs select earlier‐emerging plants to balance a seasonal trade‐off between increasing host plant quantity and decreasing host plant quality. Late‐season windows of opportunity were coincident with the initiation of host plant senescence, and caterpillar success was negatively correlated with heatwave exposure, consistent with the hypothesis that late‐season windows were constrained by plant defense traits and thermal stress. Throughout this study, climatic and microclimatic variations played a foundational role in the timing and success of monarch developmental windows by affecting bottom‐up, top‐down, and abiotic limitations. More exposed microclimates were associated with higher developmental success during cooler conditions, and more shaded microclimates were associated with higher developmental success during warmer conditions, suggesting that habitat heterogeneity could buffer the effects of climatic variation. Together, these findings show an important dimension of seasonal change in milkweed–monarch interactions and illustrate how different biotic and abiotic factors can limit the developmental success of monarchs across the breeding season. These results also suggest the potential for seasonal sequences of favorable or unfavorable conditions across the breeding range to strongly affect monarch population dynamics.     

Life‐history strategy and extinction risk in the warm desert perennial spring ephemeral Astragalus holmgreniorum (Fabaceae)

This study of Astragalus holmgreniorum examines its adaptations to the warm desert environment and whether these adaptations will enable it to persist. Its spring ephemeral hemicryptophyte life‐history strategy is unusual in warm deserts. We used data from a 22‐year demographic study supplemented with reproductive output, seed bank, and germinant survival studies to examine the population dynamics of this species using discrete‐time stochastic matrix modeling. The model showed that A. holmgreniorum is likely to persist in the warm desert in spite of high dormant‐season mortality. It relies on a stochastically varying environment with high inter‐annual variation in precipitation for persistence, but without a long‐lived seed bank, environmental stochasticity confers no advantage. Episodic high reproductive output and frequent seedling recruitment along with a persistent seed bank are adaptations that facilitate its survival. These adaptations place its life‐history strategy further along the spectrum from “slower” to “faster” relative to other perennial spring ephemerals. The extinction risk for small populations is relatively high even though mean λ _s > 1 because of the high variance in year quality. This risk is also strongly dependent on seed bank starting values, creating a moving window of extinction risk that varies with population size through time. Astragalus holmgreniorum life‐history strategy combines the perennial spring ephemeral life form with features more characteristic of desert annuals. These adaptations permit persistence in the warm desert environment. A promising conclusion is that new populations of this endangered species can likely be established through direct seeding.