Growth in utero,blood pressure in childhood and adult life,and mortality from cardiovascular disease.

In national samples of 9921 10 year olds and 3259 adults in Britain systolic blood pressure was inversely related to birth weight. The association was independent of gestational age and may therefore be attributed to reduced fetal growth. This suggests that the intrauterine environment influences blood pressure during adult life. It is further evidence that the geographical differences in average blood pressure and mortality from cardiovascular disease in Britain partly reflect past differences in the intrauterine environment. Within England and Wales 10 year olds living in areas with high cardiovascular mortality were shorter and had higher resting pulse rates than those living in other areas. Their mothers were also shorter and had higher diastolic blood pressures. This suggests that there are persisting geographical differences in the childhood environment that predispose to differences in cardiovascular mortality.     

Wartime evacuation and mortality from childhood leukaemia in England and Wales in 1945-9.

OBJECTIVE--To discover whether the wartime government evacuation of children from London and other population centres to rural districts was associated with any increase in childhood leukaemia. DESIGN--Observational study of mortality from leukaemia among the childhood population of England and Wales in relation to the unique population movements during the second world war. The 476 rural districts of England and Wales were ranked according to the ratio of government evacuees (two thirds of them children) to local children in September 1941. The districts were divided into three categories, each with similar numbers of children in 1947 but with different ratios of evacuees to local children ("low," "intermediate," "high"). Mortality from childhood leukaemia was examined in these three rural categories in 1945-9. Urban areas were also examined according to their exposure to evacuees. SETTING--Local authority areas of England and Wales. SUBJECTS--Children aged under 15. RESULTS--47% excess of leukaemia at ages 0-14 years occurred in 1945-9 in the rural "high" category for evacuees relative to the "low" category, with a significant trend across the three categories. There were increases in both the 0-4 and 5-14 year age groups, but these were larger in the older age group. Rates 25% lower than average occurred in rural areas with few evacuees. CONCLUSION--These findings suggest that wartime evacuation increased the incidence of childhood leukaemia in rural areas and that other forms of population mixing may have contributed to the increases in past decades. Overall, they add to the appreciable evidence for an infective basis in childhood leukaemia.     

Death rates from stroke in England and Wales predicted from past maternal mortality.

Geographical differences in maternal mortality in England and Wales during 1911-4 correlate closely with death rates from stroke in the generation born around that time. The geographical distribution of stroke is more closely related to past maternal mortality than to any leading cause of death, past or present, except ischaemic heart disease, for which correlation coefficients with stroke are similar. This relation is new evidence that poor health and physique of mothers are important determinants of the risk of stroke among their offspring.     

Mortality from cardiovascular disease among interregional migrants in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the extent to which geographical variations in mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke in Britain are influenced by factors in early life or in adulthood. DESIGN--Longitudinal study of migrants. SUBJECTS--1% sample of residents in England and Wales born before October 1939 and enumerated at the 1971 census (the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys'' longitudinal study). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--18,221 deaths from ischaemic heart disease and 9899 deaths from stroke during 1971-88 were analysed by areas of residence in 1939 and 1971. These included 2928 deaths from ischaemic heart disease and 1608 deaths from stroke among individuals moving between 14 areas defined by the major conurbations and nine standard administrative regions of England and Wales. RESULTS--The southeast to northwest gradient in mortality from ischaemic heart disease was related significantly to both the 1939 area (chi 2 = 6.09, df = 1) and area in 1971 (chi 2 = 5.05, df = 1). Geographical variations in mortality from stroke were related significantly to the 1939 area (chi 2 = 4.09, df = 1) but the effect of area in 1971 was greater (chi 2 = 8.07, df = 1). The effect of 1971 area on mortality from stroke was largely due to a lower risk of death from stroke among individuals moving into Greater London compared with migrants to the rest of the South East region (chi 2 = 4.54, df = 1). CONCLUSIONS--Geographical variations in mortality from cardiovascular disease in Britain may be partly determined by genetic factors, environmental exposures, or lifestyle acquired early in life, but the risk of fatal ischaemic heart disease and stroke changes on migration between areas with differing mortality. The low risk of death from stroke associated with residence in Greater London is acquired by individuals who move there.     

Migration and geographic variations in blood pressure in Britain.

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the relative contributions of factors acting at different stages in life to regional differences in adult blood pressure. DESIGN--Prospective cohort study (British regional heart study). SETTING--One general practice in each of 24 towns in Britain. SUBJECTS--7735 Men aged 40-59 years when screened in 1978-80 whose geographic zone of birth and zone of examination were classified as south of England, midlands and Wales, north of England, and Scotland. Non-migrants (n = 3144) were born in the town where they were examined; internal migrants (n = 4147) were born in Great Britain but not in the town where they were examined; and international migrants (n = 422) were born outside Great Britain. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Systolic and diastolic blood pressures and height. RESULTS--Regardless of where they were born, men living in the south of England had lower mean blood pressures than men living in Scotland (142.5/80.1 v 148.1/85.2 mm Hg). The effects of the place of birth and place of examination on adult blood pressure were examined in a multiple regression model. For internal migrants the modelled increase in mean systolic blood pressure across adjacent zones of examination was 2.1 mm Hg (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.9); for adjacent zones of birth the corresponding increase was 0.1 mm Hg (-0.7 to 0.7). The place of examination seemed to be a far more important determinant of mean adult blood pressure than the place of birth. Height is an accepted marker of genetic and early life influences. Regional differences in height were therefore analysed to test whether the multiple regression model could correctly distinguish between the influence of place of birth and place of examination. As expected, men born in Scotland were shorter on average than men born in the south of England irrespective of where they lived in Britain (172.6 cm v 175.1 cm for internal migrants). CONCLUSION--Regional variations in blood pressure were strongly influenced by where the men had lived for most of their adult lives rather than by where they were born and brought up. Among middle aged men, factors acting in adult life seemed to be more important determinants of regional differences in blood pressure than those acting early in life such as genetic inheritance, intrauterine environment, and childhood experience.     

Childhood cancer in relation to distance from high voltage power lines in England and Wales: a case-control study

Objective To determine whether there is an association between distance of home address at birth from high voltage power lines and the incidence of leukaemia and other cancers in children in England and Wales.Design Case-control study.Setting Cancer registry and National Grid records.Subjects Records of 29 081 children with cancer, including 9700 with leukaemia. Children were aged 0-14 years and born in England and Wales, 1962-95. Controls were individually matched for sex, approximate date of birth, and birth registration district. No active participation was required.Main outcome measures Distance from home address at birth to the nearest high voltage overhead power line in existence at the time.Results Compared with those who lived > 600 m from a line at birth, children who lived within 200 m had a relative risk of leukaemia of 1.69 (95% confidence interval 1.13 to 2.53); those born between 200 and 600 m had a relative risk of 1.23 (1.02 to 1.49). There was a significant (P < 0.01) trend in risk in relation to the reciprocal of distance from the line. No excess risk in relation to proximity to lines was found for other childhood cancers.Conclusions There is an association between childhood leukaemia and proximity of home address at birth to high voltage power lines, and the apparent risk extends to a greater distance than would have been expected from previous studies. About 4% of children in England and Wales live within 600 m of high voltage lines at birth. If the association is causal, about 1% of childhood leukaemia in England and Wales would be attributable to these lines, though this estimate has considerable statistical uncertainty. There is no accepted biological mechanism to explain the epidemiological results; indeed, the relation may be due to chance or confounding.     

Excess years of life lost to COVID-19 and other causes of death by sex,neighbourhood deprivation,and region in England and Wales during 2020: A registry-based study

BackgroundDeaths in the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Wales were unevenly distributed socioeconomically and geographically. However, the full scale of inequalities may have been underestimated to date, as most measures of excess mortality do not adequately account for varying age profiles of deaths between social groups. We measured years of life lost (YLL) attributable to the pandemic, directly or indirectly, comparing mortality across geographic and socioeconomic groups.Methods and findingsWe used national mortality registers in England and Wales, from 27 December 2014 until 25 December 2020, covering 3,265,937 deaths. YLLs (main outcome) were calculated using 2019 single year sex-specific life tables for England and Wales. Interrupted time-series analyses, with panel time-series models, were used to estimate expected YLL by sex, geographical region, and deprivation quintile between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020 by cause: direct deaths (COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases), cardiovascular disease and diabetes, cancer, and other indirect deaths (all other causes). Excess YLL during the pandemic period were calculated by subtracting observed from expected values. Additional analyses focused on excess deaths for region and deprivation strata, by age-group. Between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020, there were an estimated 763,550 (95% CI: 696,826 to 830,273) excess YLL in England and Wales, equivalent to a 15% (95% CI: 14 to 16) increase in YLL compared to the equivalent time period in 2019. There was a strong deprivation gradient in all-cause excess YLL, with rates per 100,000 population ranging from 916 (95% CI: 820 to 1,012) for the least deprived quintile to 1,645 (95% CI: 1,472 to 1,819) for the most deprived. The differences in excess YLL between deprivation quintiles were greatest in younger age groups; for all-cause deaths, a mean of 9.1 years per death (95% CI: 8.2 to 10.0) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 10.8 (95% CI: 10.0 to 11.6) in the most deprived; for COVID-19 and other respiratory deaths, a mean of 8.9 years per death (95% CI: 8.7 to 9.1) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 11.2 (95% CI: 11.0 to 11.5) in the most deprived. For all-cause mortality, estimated deaths in the most deprived compared to the most affluent areas were much higher in younger age groups, but similar for those aged 85 or over. There was marked variability in both all-cause and direct excess YLL by region, with the highest rates in the North West. Limitations include the quasi-experimental nature of the research design and the requirement for accurate and timely recording.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed strong socioeconomic and geographical health inequalities in YLL, during the first calendar year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These were in line with long-standing existing inequalities in England and Wales, with the most deprived areas reporting the largest numbers in potential YLL.

In a registry-based study, Evangelos Kontopantelis and colleagues examine the excess years of life lost to COVID-19 and other causes of death by sex, neighbourhood deprivation and region in England & Wales during 2020.     

Childhood energy intake and adult mortality from cancer: the Boyd Orr Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relation between energy intake in childhood and adult mortality from cancer. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: 16 rural and urban centres in England and Scotland. SUBJECTS: 3834 people who took part in Lord Boyd Orr''s Carnegie survey of family diet and health in prewar Britain between 1937 and 1939 who were followed up with the NHS, central register. Standardised methods were used to measure household dietary intake during a one week period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cancer mortality. RESULTS: Significant associations between childhood energy intake and cancer mortality were seen when the confounding effects of social variables were taken into account in proportional hazards models (relative hazard for all cancer mortality 1.15 (95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.24), P = 0.001, for every MJ increase in adult equivalent daily intake in fully adjusted models). This effect was essentially limited to cancers not related to smoking (relative hazard 1.20; 1.07 to 1.34; P = 0.001), with similar effects seen in men and women. CONCLUSION: This positive association between childhood energy intake and later cancer is consistent with animal evidence linking energy restriction with reduced incidence of cancer and the association between height and human cancer, implying that higher levels of energy intake in childhood increase the risk of later development of cancer. This evidence for long term effects of early diet confirm the importance of optimal nutrition in childhood and suggest that the unfavourable trends seen in the incidence of some cancers may have their origins in early life.     

Patterns of mortality among migrants to England and Wales from the Indian subcontinent.

Causes of deaths in immigrants to England and Wales from the Indian subcontinent were assessed by ethnic subgroup. Observed and expected deaths for 1975-7 were aggregated to calculate proportional mortality ratios. Observed mortality due to infective and parasitic diseases, endocrine diseases (notably diabetes), diseases of the circulatory system (notably ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, in males), and diseases of the digestive system (notably cirrhosis of the liver) exceeded expected mortality. Fewer than expected deaths were due to malignant neoplasms (notably lung cancer and chronic bronchitis); proportional mortality ratios for cancer were lower for Hindu groups than for Moslems and were lowest for Punjabis. Mortality due to ischaemic heart disease, high in all groups, was highest in Moslems. Significantly more Punjabi males died from cerebrovascular disease and cirrhosis of the liver. Diabetes was commonest among Gujaratis. The variation seen in the patterns of mortality in the different ethnic groups indicates the need for further epidemiological and health service research centred on these communities.     

Excess mortality associated with alcohol consumption.

To estimate the excess mortality due to alcohol in England and Wales death rates specific to alcohol consumption that had been derived from five longitudinal studies were applied to the current population divided into categories of alcohol consumption. Because of the J shaped relation between alcohol consumption and death the excess mortality used as a baseline was an alcohol consumption of 1-10 units/week and an adjustment was made for the slight excess mortality of abstainers. The number of excess deaths was obtained by subtracting the number of deaths expected if all the population had the consumption of the lowest risk group; correction for the total observed mortality in the population was made. This resulted in an estimate of 28,000 deaths each year in England and Wales as the excess mortality among people aged 15-74 associated with alcohol consumption.     

Relation of birth weight and childhood respiratory infection to adult lung function and death from chronic obstructive airways disease.

OBJECTIVE--To examine whether birth weight, infant weight, and childhood respiratory infection are associated with adult lung function and death from chronic obstructive airways disease. DESIGN--Follow up study of men born during 1911-30 whose birth weights, weights at 1 year, and childhood illnesses were recorded at the time by health visitors. SETTING--Hertfordshire, England. SUBJECTS--5718 men born in the county during 1911-30 and a subgroup of 825 men born in the county during 1920-30 and still living there. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Death from chronic obstructive airways disease, mean forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC), and respiratory symptoms. RESULTS--55 men died of chronic obstructive airways disease. Death rates fell with increasing birth weight and weight at 1 year. Mean FEV1 at age 59 to 70 years, adjusted for height and age, rose by 0.06 litre (95% confidence interval 0.02 to 0.09) with each pound (450 g) increase in birth weight, independently of smoking habit and social class. Bronchitis or pneumonia in infancy was associated with a 0.17 litre (0.02 to 0.32) reduction in adult FEV1 and with an increased odds ratio of wheezing and persistent sputum production in adult life independently of birth weight, smoking habit, and social class. Whooping cough in infancy was associated with a 0.22 litre (0.02 to 0.42) reduction in adult FEV1. CONCLUSIONS--Lower birth weight was associated with worse adult lung function. Intrauterine influences which retard fetal weight gain may irrecoverably constrain the growth of the airways. Bronchitis, pneumonia, or whooping cough in infancy further reduced adult lung function. They also retarded infant weight gain. Consistent with this, death from chronic obstructive airways disease in adult life was associated with lower birth weight and weight at 1 year. Promoting lung growth in fetuses and infants and reducing the incidence of lower respiratory tract infection in infancy may reduce the incidence of chronic obstructive airways disease in the next generation.     

Trends in perinatal mortality attributed to congenital malformations in England and Wales during 1974-81: a study of the variations among regional health authority areas

Analysis of perinatal mortality attributed to congenital malformations in England and Wales, using data from birth and death registration over the years 1974-81 showed significant declines in England and Wales as a whole and in the individual Regional Health Authority (RHA) areas. A greater decrease in death rate from congenital malformations, particularly central nervous system malformations, was seen among stillbirths than among early neonatal deaths. There were marked regional differences in perinatal mortality due to central nervous system malformations over the period but not in cardiovascular system malformations or in other malformations. The highest mortality rates due to central nervous system malformations occurred in the North, North-West, West and South-West of England and in Wales, and the lowest rates in the South and South-East. The larger percentage reductions in the mortality rates were found in most of the regions which had had the highest rates. Possible explanations for the decline in regional rates are suggested.     

Inequalities in women's health: looking at mortality differentials using an alternative approach

Data obtained from follow up of the 1971 census sample in the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys longitudinal study of England and Wales were used to look at women''s mortality differentials at ages 15-59. Women were grouped by combining information on marital state, own occupation, husband''s occupation (if married), economic activity, and indicators of household wealth (housing tenure and access to a car). Large groups were found with considerable differences in mortality. High mortality was associated with working in manual occupations and living in rented housing with no car in the household. In contrast, low mortality was associated with non-manual occupations and living in owner occupied housing with a car. Among married housewives and single women these extreme groups contributed 44% of expected deaths, the disadvantaged group experiencing death rates two and a half times that of the advantaged group. Smaller differences were found among married women with an occupational class.These findings are further evidence of the “health divide” in England and Wales and show that accurately to reflect the relation between a woman''s life circumstances and mortality it is necessary to utilise other measures than those based solely on occupation.     

Cardiovascular risk factors in British children from towns with widely differing adult cardiovascular mortality.

OBJECTIVE--To examine whether cardiovascular risk factors differ in children from towns in England and Wales with widely differing adult cardiovascular death rates. DESIGN--School based survey conducted during 1994 in 10 towns, five with exceptionally high adult cardiovascular mortality (standardised mortality ratio 131-143) and five with exceptionally low adult cardiovascular mortality (64-75). Towns were surveyed in high-low pairs. SUBJECTS--3415 white children aged 8-11 years with physical measurements (response rate 75%), including 1287 with blood samples (response rate 64%), of whom 515 had blood samples taken 30 minutes after a glucose load. RESULTS--Children in towns with high cardiovascular mortality were on average shorter than those in towns with low mortality (mean difference 1.2 cm; 95% confidence interval 0.3 to 2.1 cm; P = 0.02) and had a higher ponderal index (0.34 kg/m3; 0.16 to 0.52 kg/m3; P = 0.006). Mean systolic pressure was higher in high mortality towns, particularly after adjustment for height (2.0 mm Hg; 0.8 to 3.2 mm Hg; P = 0.009). Mean waist:hip ratio, total cholesterol concentration, and 30 minute post-load glucose measurements were similar in high and low mortality towns. The differences in height and blood pressure between high and low mortality towns were unaffected by standardisation for birth weight. CONCLUSIONS--The differences in height, ponderal index, and blood pressure between towns with high and low cardiovascular mortality, if persistent, may have important future public health implications. Their independence of birth weight suggests that the childhood environment rather than the intrauterine environment is involved in their development.     

Seasonal variation and time trends in childhood asthma in England and Wales 1975-81.

In England and Wales hospital admissions for childhood asthma almost trebled over the period 1975-81. This may have reflected a true increase in the incidence of acute asthma, a swing from primary to hospital care, or both. The trend was not due to a change in diagnostic fashion. Monthly admissions showed a pronounced seasonal variation with fewest admissions in winter, rising in spring and early summer to peak in the autumn. A deep admission trough was present in August. The monthly admission profile was very similar throughout England and Wales, suggesting that major "trigger" factors were responsible.     

Clustering of risk factors and social class in childhood and adulthood in British women's heart and health study: cross sectional analysis

Objective To examine co-occurrence and clustering of risk factors used in the Framingham equation by social class in childhood and adult life.Design Cross sectional study.Setting 23 towns across England, Wales, and Scotland.Participants 2936 women aged 60-79 years.Main outcome measures Prevalence of risk factors (hypertension, obesity, smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy on electrocardiography, diabetes, and low concentration of high density cholesterol); ratios of observed to expected frequencies of clusters of risk factors.Results Risk factors were more common in women from manual social classes in either childhood or adult life, and the co-occurrence of three or four of these risk factors was greater among more disadvantaged groups. Within the four socioeconomic groups, these risk factors occurred together more than would be expected from their individual frequency distributions, indicating that they were clustered. The extent of this clustering was similar in all four social class groups.Conclusions Clustering of risk factors included in the Framingham risk function occurs in all social class groups, but the lack of social patterning makes it unlikely that clustering is an explanation of socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular disease. As the proportion of women with co-occurrence of risk factors is greatest in those from manual social class in childhood, this measure of socioeconomic position might prove useful in risk prediction.     

Acute appendicitis,bathrooms, and diet in Britain and Ireland

Hospital discharge rates after acute appendicitis were analysed in relation to the provision of household amenities and diet in 73 areas of England and Wales, nine health board areas in Scotland, and all eight health board areas of Eire. The rates of acute appendicitis correlated with the percentage of households lacking amenities, in particular fixed baths and hot water systems. Consumption of green vegetables was an additional influence on the geographical distribution of the disease.These findings support a relation between appendicitis and hygiene, which would explain both the rise and fall of the disease during this century.     

Bioarchaeological evidence for adaptive plasticity and constraint: Exploring life‐history trade‐offs in the human past

The Developmental Origins of Health and Disease paradigm evaluates the consequences of early life stress on health at later stages of life. Interacting with this paradigm represents a profound opportunity to leverage the lifespan and contextual approaches to human skeletal remains adopted by bioarchaeological research. Teeth and bone provide evidence for stressors experienced early in life. These events represent evidence for adaptive plasticity as Individuals survive the events through reallocation of energy to essential physiological functions, which inhibits enamel and skeletal growth. Age‐at‐death, adult body size, chronic infection, or childhood mortality may be used as covariates to better understand the physiological constraints operating on individual bodies following survival of early life stress. Contextual evidence from cemeteries provides clues to the ecological and cultural contingencies that exacerbate or mitigate the expression of these trade‐offs. Future studies should incorporate newly derived methods that provide reproducible and precise ways to evaluate early life stress, while incorporating populations that are often neglected.     

International epidemiological and microbiological study of outbreak of Salmonella agona infection from a ready to eat savoury snack--II: Israel.

OBJECTIVES: To explain an increase in the incidence of salmonellosis caused by Salmonella agona in Israel between October 1994 and January 1995 in the light of an outbreak of S agona phage type 15 infection in England and Wales caused by consumption of a ready to eat savoury snack produced in Israel. DESIGN: Epidemiology of S agona in 1994-5 was analysed and two consecutive, case-control studies of 32 and 26 case-control pairs were performed. Phage typing and molecular methods were used to characterise strains of S agona isolated from cases and samples of the snack in Israel and England and Wales. RESULTS: The increase in the incidence of S agona between October 1994 and January 1995 was countrywide. Cases of infection with group B salmonella increased from 60% to 80% in children under 5 years old. In both case-control studies, cases consumed more of the snack than did controls (4.25 v 2.94 packets per week in the first study (P = 0.086) and 4.04 v 2.37 packets per week in the second study (P = 0.034)). When the two studies were combined there was a significant dose-response relation for the number of packets consumed weekly. Compared with consumption of less than two packets, the odds ratio was 1.43 for between two and six packets and 3.37 for seven or more packets (chi 2 for trend = 5.27, P = 0.02) S agona phage type 15 was isolated from a packet of the snack sold in Israel, and the strain was identical with those isolated from packets and cases in Israel and England and Wales. CONCLUSIONS: This outbreak of S agona was caused by the contamination of a snack produced in Israel. Even under modern operating conditions, large, widespread international outbreaks of foodborne disease can occur. The success of this investigation resulted from excellent international collaboration between public health authorities.     

Demography and Life Histories of Sympatric Patas Monkeys, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Erythrocebus patas</Emphasis>, and Vervets, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cercopithecus aethiops</Emphasis>, in Laikipia,Kenya

Mortality patterns are thought to be strong selective forces on life history traits, with high adult mortality and low immature mortality favoring early and rapid reproduction. Patas monkeys (Erythrocebus patas) have the highest potential rates of population increase for their body size of any haplorhine primate because they reproduce both earlier and more often. We report here 10 yr of comparative demographic data on a population of patas monkeys and a sympatric population of vervet monkeys (Cercopithecus aethiops), a closely related species differing in aspects of social system, ecology, and life history. The data reveal that 1) adult female patas monkeys have significantly higher mortality than adult female vervets; 2) infant mortality in patas monkeys is relatively low compared to the norm for mammals because it is not significantly different from that of adult female patas monkeys; and 3) infant mortality is significantly higher than adult female mortality in vervets. For both species, much of the mortality could be attributed to predation. An epidemic illness was also a major contributor to the mortality of adult female patas monkeys whereas chronic exposure to pathogens in a cold and damp microenvironment may have contributed to the mortality of infant vervets. Both populations experienced large fluctuations during the study period. Our results support the prediction from demographic models of life history evolution that high adult mortality relative to immature mortality selects for early maturation.