Net Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Bolivia during 1990-2000 and 2000-2010: Results from a Carbon Bookkeeping Model

Accurate estimates of global carbon emissions are critical for understanding global warming. This paper estimates net carbon emissions from land use change in Bolivia during the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 using a model that takes into account deforestation, forest degradation, forest regrowth, gradual carbon decomposition and accumulation, as well as heterogeneity in both above ground and below ground carbon contents at the 10 by 10 km grid level. The approach permits detailed maps of net emissions by region and type of land cover. We estimate that net CO₂ emissions from land use change in Bolivia increased from about 65 million tons per year during 1990–2000 to about 93 million tons per year during 2000–2010, while CO₂ emissions per capita and per unit of GDP have remained fairly stable over the sample period. If we allow for estimated biomass increases in mature forests, net CO₂ emissions drop to close to zero. Finally, we find these results are robust to alternative methods of calculating emissions.     

Determination of tropical deforestation rates and related carbon losses from 1990 to 2010

We estimate changes in forest cover (deforestation and forest regrowth) in the tropics for the two last decades (1990–2000 and 2000–2010) based on a sample of 4000 units of 10 ×10 km size. Forest cover is interpreted from satellite imagery at 30 × 30 m resolution. Forest cover changes are then combined with pan‐tropical biomass maps to estimate carbon losses. We show that there was a gross loss of tropical forests of 8.0 million ha yr^?1 in the 1990s and 7.6 million ha yr^?1 in the 2000s (0.49% annual rate), with no statistically significant difference. Humid forests account for 64% of the total forest cover in 2010 and 54% of the net forest loss during second study decade. Losses of forest cover and Other Wooded Land (OWL) cover result in estimates of carbon losses which are similar for 1990s and 2000s at 887 MtC yr^?1 (range: 646–1238) and 880 MtC yr^?1 (range: 602–1237) respectively, with humid regions contributing two‐thirds. The estimates of forest area changes have small statistical standard errors due to large sample size. We also reduce uncertainties of previous estimates of carbon losses and removals. Our estimates of forest area change are significantly lower as compared to national survey data. We reconcile recent low estimates of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation for early 2000s and show that carbon loss rates did not change between the two last decades. Carbon losses from deforestation represent circa 10% of Carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production during the last decade (2000–2010). Our estimates of annual removals of carbon from forest regrowth at 115 MtC yr^?1 (range: 61–168) and 97 MtC yr^?1 (53–141) for the 1990s and 2000s respectively are five to fifteen times lower than earlier published estimates.     

Environmental change and the carbon balance of Amazonian forests

Extreme climatic events and land‐use change are known to influence strongly the current carbon cycle of Amazonia, and have the potential to cause significant global climate impacts. This review intends to evaluate the effects of both climate and anthropogenic perturbations on the carbon balance of the Brazilian Amazon and to understand how they interact with each other. By analysing the outputs of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4) model ensemble, we demonstrate that Amazonian temperatures and water stress are both likely to increase over the 21st Century. Curbing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 62% in 2010 relative to the 1990s mean decreased the Brazilian Amazon's deforestation contribution to global land use carbon emissions from 17% in the 1990s and early 2000s to 9% by 2010. Carbon sources in Amazonia are likely to be dominated by climatic impacts allied with forest fires (48.3% relative contribution) during extreme droughts. The current net carbon sink (net biome productivity, NBP) of +0.16 (ranging from +0.11 to +0.21) Pg C year^?1 in the Brazilian Amazon, equivalent to 13.3% of global carbon emissions from land‐use change for 2008, can be negated or reversed during drought years [NBP = ?0.06 (?0.31 to +0.01) Pg C year^?1]. Therefore, reducing forest fires, in addition to reducing deforestation, would be an important measure for minimizing future emissions. Conversely, doubling the current area of secondary forests and avoiding additional removal of primary forests would help the Amazonian gross forest sink to offset approximately 42% of global land‐use change emissions. We conclude that a few strategic environmental policy measures are likely to strengthen the Amazonian net carbon sink with global implications. Moreover, these actions could increase the resilience of the net carbon sink to future increases in drought frequency.     

滨海城市土地利用格局演变及对生态系统服务价值的影响

土地利用变化改变土地原有的生态系统服务价值(ESV)和功能,关系地区可持续发展。选择沿海城市厦门市为研究区,利用1989、2000、2010年3期土地利用数据和相关文献数据,采用土地利用动态度、转移矩阵方法,ESV等指标计算分析了厦门市土地利用的变化及其对ESV的影响。研究结果表明:1989—2010年厦门市土地利用综合动态度为同时期全国水平的5倍多。该时期厦门市和全国建设用地动态度均高于其他地类。其中2000—2010年间,厦门市土地利用综合动态度是1989—2010年间近5倍(458.94%);在厦门市与各沿海地区对比中发现,1989—2010年整个沿海地区建设用地的动态度都高于其他各个单一地类。各沿海地区建设用地动态度大小排序为浙江沿海厦门福建沿海江苏沿海,厦门市排序靠前。空间特征上,厦门市建设用地的增加主要是由滨海带滩涂的填埋和耕地的占用,处于北部的林地基本稳定。研究期1989—2010年间,厦门市ESV总量一直处于下降趋势,其中2000—2010年ESV总减少量(1.2亿元)是1989—2000年总减少量(1000万元)的十余倍(1382.57%)。研究区由于水域和耕地的大面积减少,导致水源涵养、废物处理等生态系统服务功能趋于弱化,最终致使各类ESV成分在1989—2010年间整体上均处于下降趋势。下降幅度最大的仍然是水文调节和废物处理,食物和原材料生产变化幅度最小。1989—2000阶段中保持土壤ESV变化的贡献最大,2000—2010阶段中水文调节ESV变化的贡献最大。2010年厦门市单位面积ESV在东部沿海地区中处于较低水平。反观厦门市2000—2010年远高于全国水平的土地利用动态度,表明厦门市在未来的城市建设中应当划出生态红线,加强对具有关键生态功能的生态用地保护,特别是水域和北部的林地。     

京津冀地区生态用地稳定性格局及其影响因素

探索生态用地稳定性格局对动态背景下区域生态规划与管理具有重要意义。本文基于2000、2010、2020年京津冀地区生态用地数据基础,提取2000—2010和2010—2020年间稳定性生态用地,借鉴并应用生态用地稳定性指数予以衡量区域生态用地的时空稳定效应,并利用ArcGIS平台空间统计工具对生态用地稳定性空间格局进行分析,最后基于地理探测模型对生态用地稳定性的影响机制及其区域差异进行探索。研究结果显示,(1)2000—2010年和2010—2020年,京津冀地区稳定性生态用地有所减少,集中分布在内蒙古草原生态区和燕山-太行山山地林生态区。(2)两时期生态用地稳定性指数分别为90.85%和83.86%,呈现“西北高、东南低”。生态用地稳定性指数等级结构显示前期极低稳定性和极高稳定性面积占绝对主导,后期极低、高和极高稳定性面积共同主导。生态用地稳定性指数空间格局呈现显著冷热点效应,热点区汇集在燕山-太行山山地林生态区和内蒙古草原生态区,冷点区集中在京津唐城市生态区和华北平原生态区。(3)整体研究区高程、坡度、地貌和土壤类型等地理要素解释力较高;平原区内温度因子解释力度最为突出,地理因素和...     

Diversifying Incomes and Losing Landscape Complexity in Quilombola Shifting Cultivation Communities of the Atlantic Rainforest (Brazil)

Shifting cultivation systems have been blamed as the primary cause of tropical deforestation and are being transformed through various forms of conservation and development policies and through the emergence of new markets for cash crops. Here, we analyze the outcomes of different policies on land use/land cover change (LUCC) in a traditional, shifting cultivation landscape in the Atlantic Forest (Brazil), one of the world’s top biodiversity hotspots. We also investigate the impacts of those policies on the environment and local livelihoods in Quilombola communities, which are formed by descendants of former Maroon colonies. Our findings show that conservation and social policies have had mixed effects both on the conservation of the Atlantic Forest and on the livelihoods of the Quilombola. We conclude that future interventions in the region need to build on the new, functional links between sustainable livelihoods and biodiversity, where less restrictive state policies leave room for new opportunities in self-organization and innovation.     

泛珠江流域土地利用时空变化特征及驱动因子

泛珠江流域是中国改革开放和海上一带一路的“桥头堡”,在国家经济建设中具有重要的战略地位。本研究基于泛珠江流域1990—2015年土地利用数据,结合气候和社会经济指标,利用ArcGIS空间分析和SPSS因子分析等方法,探索泛珠江流域土地利用时空变化特征及其驱动因子。结果表明: 1990—2015年,泛珠江流域土地利用变化明显。其中,水田和有林地面积明显减少,城镇用地和其他建设用地面积急剧增长。在空间上,草地的减少主要发生在流域西北部,耕地的减少集中在流域中部以及沿海地区,城乡、工矿、居民用地的增加主要集中在粤港澳大湾区。其中,变化最为集中的三大典型区域为粤港澳大湾区＞广西中-东南部＞海南岛北部。1990—2000年是流域内土地利用变化最为明显的时期。社会经济和工业的飞速发展,以及居民消费水平的提高是该流域土地利用变化的主要驱动力。     

人类活动对资源型城市生态系统服务价值的影响——以鄂尔多斯为例

资源型城市通过资源开采驱动城市快速发展,同时通过生态恢复维持生态系统稳定。探究典型人类活动对资源型城市生态系统服务的消极和积极影响对于可持续城市建设具有重要意义。以鄂尔多斯市为例,基于1990-2018年土地利用/覆盖、NDVI等数据,修订了生态系统服务价值计算方法,量化了区域生态系统服务价值的时空格局,进而评估了人类活动过程对生态系统服务的影响。研究结果表明,研究时段内鄂尔多斯市城镇建设用地、林地和草地面积总体增加,耕地及未利用土地面积减少。区域生态系统服务总价值总体呈上升趋势,从1990年的2312.24亿元上升至2018年的2421.38亿元,增加了4.72%。2000年以后鄂尔多斯市退耕还林、未利用地植被恢复等措施使得生态系统服务价值增加了113.53亿元,同期城镇建设用地扩展占用生态生产用地导致生态系统服务价值减少了91.36亿元,生态建设的积极影响大于城镇建设用地扩展的消极影响。     

江苏省土地利用变化的图谱特征

基于地学信息图谱理论与方法,运用ArcGIS 10.0软件,以江苏省1990、2000和2010年3期遥感解译数据为空间数据源合成江苏省1990—2000和2000—2010年两个10年阶段的土地利用变化图谱以及耕地利用变化模式图谱,据此揭示江苏省土地利用变化时空特征及规律.结果表明: 1990—2000年,江苏省土地利用变化以耕地与城乡建设用地、耕地与水域以及耕地与林草地的图谱单元互换为主要特征,尤其是以“耕地→城乡建设用地”、“耕地→水域”最为显著,耕地数量减少、空间分布集中.2000—2010年,江苏省土地利用变化最显著的仍是“耕地→城乡建设用地”图谱单元;同时,“草地→水域”、“城乡建设用地→水域”图谱类型分布集中且扩大趋势明显;与1990—2000年相比,空间图谱变化总面积和空间分离度均有所增大.江苏省耕地利用变化模式以后期变化型为主,前期变化型次之,反复和持续变化型耕地所占比例较小.     

Estimation of forest carbon budget from land cover change in South and North Korea between 1981 and 2010

This paper quantified carbon budget in the past 30 years (1981–2010) and identified the impact of land cover change on carbon dynamics using vegetation integrated simulator for trace gases (VISIT) model. North Korea was converted from carbon sink to source with 10.72 ± 5.18 Tg C yr^?1 of net ecosystem production (NEP) in the 1980s, 3.00 ± 7.96 Tg C yr^?1 in the 1990s, and ?0.46 ± 5.13 Tg C yr^?1 in the 2000s. NEP in South Korea was 10.55 ± 1.09 Tg C yr^?1 in the 1980s, 10.47 ± 7.28 Tg C yr^?1 in the 1990s, and 6.32 ± 5.02 Tg C yr^?1 in the 2000s, showing a gradual decline. In North Korea, NEP was decreased by 0.52 Tg yr^?1 in the 1990s due to reduction of forest, and increased by 0.36 Tg yr^?1 in the 2000s due to expansion of cropland. In South Korea, it was decreased by 0.24 Tg yr^?1 in the 1990s as urban and built-up area expanded, and increased by 0.04 Tg yr^?1 in the 2000s with the expansion of forest. These results suggest the importance of forest and land cover management against deforestation for ensuring national carbon balance.     

基于GIS的北京市城乡景观格局梯度时空变化研究

利用遥感和GIS的技术手段,对1990年和2000年北京市的土地利用数据进行了景观格局指数计算及景观梯度分析和时空变化分析,从而得出了北京市10年间城市化过程中土地利用景观结构变化特征和城乡景观的梯度变化的时空特点.结果表明,1990年和2000年北京市景观以林地和耕地为主,城镇用地总面积大量增加,2000年其总面积和农村居民点景观面积差别很小,北京的城市化水平已经达到较高程度.城镇用地景观沿样带分布呈典型的"凸"字形,城镇用地比例随距离市中心距离的增大而逐渐减小,城市化过程在10年间继续向郊区推进,向北扩张强度大于向南.城区范围不断扩大,中心城区聚集性大幅度增大,城乡交错带的景观斑块密度增大,景观破碎程度加剧,是景观格局变化最剧烈的区域.利用景观格局指数在样带上的梯度分布和其随时间的变化来分析城市发展特点、模式是一种研究城市化过程的重要手段.     

Patterns of Land Cover Change in and Around Madidi National Park, Bolivia

This study examines how human land uses and biophysical factors serve as predictors of land cover change in and around Madidi National Park in Bolivia. The Greater Madidi Landscape ranges over an elevational gradient from < 200 m in the Amazon basin to 6000 m in the high Andes, contains more than ten major ecosystem types, and several protected areas and sustainable use zones. In this study, Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite images collected over the study area at the beginning of the 1990s and then the 2000s were classified according to broad land cover types. Below elevations of 3000 m, the landscape experienced equal rates of deforestation and secondary forest increases of approximately 0.63 percent annually, resulting in no significant net change. Below elevations of 1000 m, however, we found an annual net loss in forest cover of 0.11 percent. Across the landscape, land cover change was most likely to occur near areas previously deforested, near roads and population centers, and at low elevations. We found net deforestation rates to be inversely related to strength of natural resource protection laws in protected areas and other jurisdictions. Results suggest little net change for the landscape as a whole, but that local scale changes may be significant, particularly near roads. Management policies favorable for biodiversity conservation in this landscape should limit the building of new roads and immigration to biologically sensitive areas and continue to support protected areas, which are achieving a positive result for forest conservation.     

Continental estimates of forest cover and forest cover changes in the dry ecosystems of Africa between 1990 and 2000

Aim

This study provides regional estimates of forest cover in dry African ecoregions and the changes in forest cover that occurred there between 1990 and 2000, using a systematic sample of medium‐resolution satellite imagery which was processed consistently across the continent.

Location

The study area corresponds to the dry forests and woodlands of Africa between the humid forests and the semi‐arid regions. This area covers the Sudanian and Zambezian ecoregions.

Methods

A systematic sample of 1600 Landsat satellite imagery subsets, each 20 km × 20 km in size, were analysed for two reference years: 1990 and 2000. At each sample site and for both years, dense tree cover, open tree cover, other wooded land and other vegetation cover were identified from the analysis of satellite imagery, which comprised multidate segmentation and automatic classification steps followed by visual control by national forestry experts.

Results

Land cover and land‐cover changes were estimated at continental and ecoregion scales and compared with existing pan‐continental, regional and local studies. The overall accuracy of our land‐cover maps was estimated at 87%. Between 1990 and 2000, 3.3 million hectares (Mha) of dense tree cover, 5.8 Mha of open tree cover and 8.9 Mha of other wooded land were lost, with a further 3.9 Mha degraded from dense to open tree cover. These results are substantially lower than the 34 Mha of forest loss reported in the FAO's 2010 Global Forest Resources Assessment for the same period and area.

Main conclusions

Our method generates the first consistent and robust estimates of forest cover and change in dry Africa with known statistical precision at continental and ecoregion scales. These results reduce the uncertainty regarding vegetation cover and its dynamics in these previously poorly studied ecosystems and provide crucial information for both science and environmental policies.     

1990—2015年三江平原生态功能区水禽栖息地适宜性动态

作为国际重要湿地,三江平原生态功能区是重要的水禽栖息地.随着人类活动干扰、土地利用和全球气候变化,栖息地适宜性逐渐引起生态学家的重视.本文以Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI和HJ-1B为遥感信息源,采用面向对象分类方法提取土地覆被空间信息;采用综合熵值法和层次分析法确定水源状况(湖泊和河流密度)、干扰条件(居民地和道路密度)、遮蔽物(土地覆被类型和坡度)和食物丰富度(NDVI)等因子的权重;根据水禽栖息地适宜性评价系统获得三江平原生态功能区1990、2000、2010和2015年水禽栖息地适宜性结果,并分析其时空分布和变化特征及驱动因素.结果表明: 近25年间,三江平原生态功能区水禽栖息地适宜性最好区域面积减少3.2%,主要由于湿地开垦和退化;适宜性最好区域空间分布特征明显,主要分布于黑龙江、挠力河、乌苏里江、穆棱河以及兴凯湖等水补给充足的沿岸区域.适宜性良好的区域主要分布在饶河县,到2010和2015年,虎林县和抚远县也变为适宜性良好区域的重要分布区,主要由于该区水田面积大幅增加.适宜性一般区域分布较零散,其面积先增加后减少.适宜性差的区域面积在1990—2000年间增加6.7%,2000—2015年间减少3.1%.土地覆被变化是水禽栖息地适宜性等级变化的最重要影响因素;人口和经济增长以及气候的变干、变暖使水禽栖息地适宜性降低;保护区的建立使水禽栖息地得到有效保护.     

A mass-balance study on chloride fluxes in a large central European catchment during 1900–2010

Using data on long-term monitoring of water quality, mass budgets, and empirical models, we quantified chloride (Cl) leaching from major diffuse and point sources in a large central European catchment (upper Vltava river, Czech Republic) over a 110-year period (1900–2010), with the major aim to evaluate the influence of historical changes in land use and management practices on Cl leaching from agricultural land. The Cl input to farmland in synthetic fertilizers, livestock feed, and atmospheric deposition tripled in the 1950s–1980s (from 23 to 64 kg ha^?1 year^?1 on average), and then abruptly decreased to ~14 kg ha^?1 year^?1 during 1990–2010. The proportion of drained agricultural land rapidly increased from 4 % in the 1950s to its maximum of 43 % in the 1990s. Until the 1950s, the Cl leaching from agricultural land followed a simple dose–response function. Then, agricultural soils retained on average 16 ± 4 kg ha^?1 year^?1 of Cl during 1959–1985, when the most important changes in land use and management practices occurred, and subsequently became a net Cl source of 11 ± 3 kg ha^?1 year^?1 on average during 1986–2010, when Cl input to soils declined and drainage of new land ceased. Our data suggest that the temporal changes in the Cl storage in agricultural land are associated with changes in Cl concentrations in both permanent soil water and soils. Physico-chemical conditions in freshly drained soils, namely elevated aeration and high concentrations of soil organic matter (SOM), and high Cl inputs probably resulted in a Cl immobilization in soils by formation of organic chlorine (Cl_org) and adsorption that was higher than the Cl production from Cl_org mineralization and desorption. In contrast, Cl_org mineralization and Cl desorption exceeded the Cl retention during the consecutive period of low Cl inputs and decreasing SOM concentrations in agricultural soils. Our study implies that changes in land use and agricultural management can significantly affect dose–response functions even for Cl, which is traditionally considered and modelled as a conservative ion.     

1975—2015年玛纳斯河流域土地利用变化的地学信息图谱分析

地学信息图谱分析可利用图形语言将复杂的地理现象进行简洁的表达,对开展多时空尺度土地利用变化空间格局与时间过程的集成研究具有重要意义.本研究以新疆玛纳斯河流域为例,基于7期遥感数据(1975、1990、1995、2000、2005、2010和2015年)构建土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)图谱体系,定量分析流域LUCC过程及趋势.结果表明:1975—2015年,流域土地利用变化幅度逐渐减弱,土地利用结构由复杂趋向单一,后期趋于稳定.1975—1990年,流域内草地涨势最强,主要来源于未利用土地的转入.1990—2015年,耕地增幅最大,主要由未利用土地、林草地转换而来.土地利用变化模式图谱显示,前期变化型、后期变化型及持续变化型仅占流域面积的1.3%,图谱单元总体变化以未利用土地转向耕地、草地和水域占主导,土地利用变化过程较为稳定.土地利用变化频率图谱的稳定不变区域覆盖流域面积的61.2%,土地利用空间格局相对稳定.土地利用转变最频繁的方式为耕地的持续扩张,以沙湾县柳毛湾镇和玛纳斯县六户地镇为左右中心,呈“摊饼式”向两侧扩张,延伸至古尔班通古特沙漠.通过构建土地利用时空变化图谱,丰富了LUCC时空分析方法体系,为今后开展多时空尺度下的LUCC研究提供了有效手段.     

基于土地利用变化的贵州坝子土地利用功能演变研究

贵州省为典型喀斯特山区,强烈的人类活动主要分布在坝地地区,研究坝子土地利用功能演变对土地可持续利用具有重要价值。基于土地利用变化,根据三生功能理论构建土地利用功能分类体系,以贵州省1990年、2000年、2010年和2016年四期遥感影像为数据源,借助ArcGIS10.2软件平台构建土地利用功能转移矩阵和坝子功能冷热点分布图。研究表明:(1)贵州省坝子土地利用功能已由以传统农业生产功能为主转为以传统农业生产功能-农村居住生活功能为主,坝子土地利用由单一功能向多功能转变;(2)1990—2016年,坝子的功能类型增加10种类型,其中8类是复合类型,坝子功能向多样性转变;(3)单一功能与复合功能坝子比例变化曲线呈"X"型,到2016年,复合功能坝子比例大于单一功能坝子;(4)1990—2000年,坝子土地利用功能变化缓慢,2000年以后坝子土地利用功能变化强烈;(5)传统农业生产功能转移最为强烈,主要转移为城镇居住生活功能、农村居住生活功能、工业生产功能及与之相关的复合功能和自然生态功能;(6)各种功能类型坝子冷热点的空间分布变化复杂,从总体上看各功能的空间分布由集聚变为分散。     

1981~2000年广东省净初级生产力的时空格局

采用Global production efficiency model(GLO-PEM)结果,分析了1981~2000年期间广东省NPP的时空动态,从全省、地区以及地级市3个空间尺度分别讨论了广东省NPP分布格局及动态。并对广东省3种典型森林类型:阔叶林、针叶林和混交林20aNPP的动态进行了分析。结果表明,1981~2000年,广东省平均NPP为(1480±407)g/(m.2a),NPP的年间变化较大。20世纪80年代早期(1980~1985),广东省NPP相对较低,为(1443±57)g/(m.2a),80年代后期(1986~1990)NPP达到最大,为(1534±121)g/(m.2a),90年代前期(1991~1995)有所降低,降至(1460±89)g/(m.2a),90年代后期(1996~2000年)又有一定回升,达到(1484±74)g/(m.2a)。全省NPP分布呈现明显的地域性差异,表现为西南沿海地区>东南沿海地区>内陆地区的趋势,这主要是由3个地区的植被组成、水热条件以及农田的分布状况决定的。根据1981~1985年、1986~1990年、1991~1995年、1996~2000年4个阶段NPP的动态把全省21个地级市划分为3种类型:NPP稳定型,包括韶关、清远、河源等12个市;NPP增长型,包括潮州、揭阳、汕尾、和湛江4个市,分别以59、39、45、46g/m.25a的速率增加;以及NPP下降型,包括佛山、中山、深圳、东莞、珠海5个市,NPP分别以114、113、87、75、75g/m.25a的速率下降,这种下降和土地覆盖/利用方式的改变有密切关系。3种主要森林类型阔叶林、针叶林、混交林20a平均NPP分别为(1391±372)g/(m.2a)、(1364±390)g/(m.2a)和(1704±450)g/(m.2a),其中混交林NPP与阔叶林NPP、针叶林NPP差异显著(P<0.05)。     

成都市近20年林地景观变化特征

基于多时段遥感数据资料,利用景观格局方法和区域土地利用指数模型,并结合生态功能区划,从时间和空间上对成都市1985-2006年的林地景观变化特征进行了分析.结果表明:研究时段内,成都市林地损失面积超过17000 hm²,林地斑块格局特征变化复杂,中、小斑块的数量和面积变化显著,体现出林地剧烈的转化和破碎化过程.从林地区域分布特征来看,林地斑块在山地亚区面积最大,约占研究区总面积的70%;平原亚区斑块数量最多,占总数的70%左右;全市林地面积变化速度最快的时期为1985-1995年,其中以山地亚区的林地面积减少速度最快;不同时段各生态功能亚区林地的相对变化率也不同.从林地的转化方向看,林地的转出、转入类型均以耕地和草地为主,林地在2000-2006年稳定性最高.促使林地景观格局时序变化的驱动力主要是生存型经济福利驱动、环境安全驱动和快速城市化过程,而自然生态条件、社会经济地域分工与布局则是林地景观空间变化的重要约束因子.