Designing gene drives to limit spillover to non-target populations

The prospect of utilizing CRISPR-based gene-drive technology for controlling populations has generated much excitement. However, the potential for spillovers of gene-drive alleles from the target population to non-target populations has raised concerns. Here, using mathematical models, we investigate the possibility of limiting spillovers to non-target populations by designing differential-targeting gene drives, in which the expected equilibrium gene-drive allele frequencies are high in the target population but low in the non-target population. We find that achieving differential targeting is possible with certain configurations of gene-drive parameters, but, in most cases, only under relatively low migration rates between populations. Under high migration, differential targeting is possible only in a narrow region of the parameter space. Because fixation of the gene drive in the non-target population could severely disrupt ecosystems, we outline possible ways to avoid this outcome. We apply our model to two potential applications of gene drives—field trials for malaria-vector gene drives and control of invasive species on islands. We discuss theoretical predictions of key requirements for differential targeting and their practical implications.     

Double drives and private alleles for localised population genetic control

Synthetic gene drive constructs could, in principle, provide the basis for highly efficient interventions to control disease vectors and other pest species. This efficiency derives in part from leveraging natural processes of dispersal and gene flow to spread the construct and its impacts from one population to another. However, sometimes (for example, with invasive species) only specific populations are in need of control, and impacts on non-target populations would be undesirable. Many gene drive designs use nucleases that recognise and cleave specific genomic sequences, and one way to restrict their spread would be to exploit sequence differences between target and non-target populations. In this paper we propose and model a series of low threshold double drive designs for population suppression, each consisting of two constructs, one imposing a reproductive load on the population and the other inserted into a differentiated locus and controlling the drive of the first. Simple deterministic, discrete-generation computer simulations are used to assess the alternative designs. We find that the simplest double drive designs are significantly more robust to pre-existing cleavage resistance at the differentiated locus than single drive designs, and that more complex designs incorporating sex ratio distortion can be more efficient still, even allowing for successful control when the differentiated locus is neutral and there is up to 50% pre-existing resistance in the target population. Similar designs can also be used for population replacement, with similar benefits. A population genomic analysis of CRISPR PAM sites in island and mainland populations of the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae indicates that the differentiation needed for our methods to work can exist in nature. Double drives should be considered when efficient but localised population genetic control is needed and there is some genetic differentiation between target and non-target populations.     

Invasion success depends on invader body size in a size-structured mixed predation–competition community

1.  The size of an individual is an important determinant of its trophic position and the type of interactions it engages in with other heterospecific and conspecific individuals. Consequently an individual's ecological role in a community changes with its body size over ontogeny, leading to that trophic interactions between individuals are a size-dependent and ontogenetically variable mixture of competition and predation.
2.  Because differently sized individuals thus experience different biotic environments, invasion success may be determined by the body size of the invaders. Invasion outcome may also depend on the productivity of the system as productivity influences the biotic environment.
3.  In a laboratory experiment with two poeciliid fishes the body size of the invading individuals and the daily amount of food supplied were manipulated.
4.  Large invaders established persistent populations and drove the resident population to extinction in 10 out of 12 cases, while small invaders failed in 10 out of 12 trials. Stable coexistence was virtually absent. Invasion outcome was independent of productivity.
5.  Further analyses suggest that small invaders experienced a competitive recruitment bottleneck imposed on them by the resident population. In contrast, large invaders preyed on the juveniles of the resident population. This predation allowed the large invaders to establish successfully by decreasing the resident population densities and thus breaking the bottleneck.
6.  The results strongly suggest that the size distribution of invaders affects their ability to invade, an implication so far neglected in life-history omnivory systems. The findings are further in agreement with predictions of life-history omnivory theory, that size-structured interactions demote coexistence along a productivity gradient.     

Inbreeding depression is purged in the invasive insect Harmonia axyridis

Bottlenecks in population size reduce genetic diversity and increase inbreeding, which can lead to inbreeding depression. It is thus puzzling how introduced species, which typically pass through bottlenecks, become such successful invaders. However, under certain theoretical conditions, bottlenecks of intermediate size can actually purge the alleles that cause inbreeding depression. Although this process has been confirmed in model laboratory systems, it has yet to be observed in natural invasive populations. We evaluate whether such purging could facilitate biological invasions by using the world-wide invasion of the ladybird (or ladybug) Harmonia axyridis. We first show that invasive populations endured a bottleneck of intermediate intensity. We then demonstrate that replicate introduced populations experience almost none of the inbreeding depression suffered by native populations. Thus, rather than posing a barrier to invasion as often assumed, bottlenecks, by purging deleterious alleles, can enable the evolution of invaders that maintain high fitness even when inbred.     

Mainland size variation informs predictive models of exceptional insular body size change in rodents

The tendency for island populations of mammalian taxa to diverge in body size from their mainland counterparts consistently in particular directions is both impressive for its regularity and, especially among rodents, troublesome for its exceptions. However, previous studies have largely ignored mainland body size variation, treating size differences of any magnitude as equally noteworthy. Here, we use distributions of mainland population body sizes to identify island populations as ‘extremely’ big or small, and we compare traits of extreme populations and their islands with those of island populations more typical in body size. We find that although insular rodents vary in the directions of body size change, ‘extreme’ populations tend towards gigantism. With classification tree methods, we develop a predictive model, which points to resource limitations as major drivers in the few cases of insular dwarfism. Highly successful in classifying our dataset, our model also successfully predicts change in untested cases.     

LOCAL ADAPTATION MAINTAINS CLINAL VARIATION IN MELANIN‐BASED COLORATION OF EUROPEAN BARN OWLS (TYTO ALBA)

Ecological parameters vary in space, and the resulting heterogeneity of selective forces can drive adaptive population divergence. Clinal variation represents a classical model to study the interplay of gene flow and selection in the dynamics of this local adaptation process. Although geographic variation in phenotypic traits in discrete populations could be remainders of past adaptation, maintenance of adaptive clinal variation requires recurrent selection. Clinal variation in genetically determined traits is generally attributed to adaptation of different genotypes to local conditions along an environmental gradient, although it can as well arise from neutral processes. Here, we investigated whether selection accounts for the strong clinal variation observed in a highly heritable pheomelanin‐based color trait in the European barn owl by comparing spatial differentiation of color and of neutral genes among populations. Barn owl's coloration varies continuously from white in southwestern Europe to reddish‐brown in northeastern Europe. A very low differentiation at neutral genetic markers suggests that substantial gene flow occurs among populations. The persistence of pronounced color differentiation despite this strong gene flow is consistent with the hypothesis that selection is the primary force maintaining color variation among European populations. Therefore, the color cline is most likely the result of local adaptation.     

Differentiation with drift: a spatio-temporal genetic analysis of Galápagos mockingbird populations (Mimus spp.)

Small and isolated island populations provide ideal systems to study the effects of limited population size, genetic drift and gene flow on genetic diversity. We assessed genetic diversity within and differentiation among 19 mockingbird populations on 15 Galápagos islands, covering all four endemic species, using 16 microsatellite loci. We tested for signs of drift and gene flow, and used historic specimens to assess genetic change over the last century and to estimate effective population sizes. Within-population genetic diversity and effective population sizes varied substantially among island populations and correlated strongly with island size, suggesting that island size serves as a good predictor for effective population size. Genetic differentiation among populations was pronounced and increased with geographical distance. A century of genetic drift did not change genetic diversity on an archipelago-wide scale, but genetic drift led to loss of genetic diversity in small populations, especially in one of the two remaining populations of the endangered Floreana mockingbird. Unlike in other Galápagos bird species such as the Darwin''s finches, gene flow among mockingbird populations was low. The clear pattern of genetically distinct populations reflects the effects of genetic drift and suggests that Galápagos mockingbirds are evolving in relative isolation.     

Machine Learning Approach for the Outcome Prediction of Temporal Lobe Epilepsy Surgery

Epilepsy surgery is effective in reducing both the number and frequency of seizures, particularly in temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). Nevertheless, a significant proportion of these patients continue suffering seizures after surgery. Here we used a machine learning approach to predict the outcome of epilepsy surgery based on supervised classification data mining taking into account not only the common clinical variables, but also pathological and neuropsychological evaluations. We have generated models capable of predicting whether a patient with TLE secondary to hippocampal sclerosis will fully recover from epilepsy or not. The machine learning analysis revealed that outcome could be predicted with an estimated accuracy of almost 90% using some clinical and neuropsychological features. Importantly, not all the features were needed to perform the prediction; some of them proved to be irrelevant to the prognosis. Personality style was found to be one of the key features to predict the outcome. Although we examined relatively few cases, findings were verified across all data, showing that the machine learning approach described in the present study may be a powerful method. Since neuropsychological assessment of epileptic patients is a standard protocol in the pre-surgical evaluation, we propose to include these specific psychological tests and machine learning tools to improve the selection of candidates for epilepsy surgery.     

Electrophoretic differentiation in isolated populations of Lolium rigidum Gaud.

Sixteen wild populations of Lolium rigidum Gaud. were collected from island and mainland locations in Mediterranean Europe and western Asia. Five loci, controlling isozymes at four enzyme systems, were assayed on 60 plants per population using starch gel electrophoresis. Gene diversity measures and Nei’s genetic distance were calculated, and the relationships between the populations were analysed using principal component (PCA) and cluster analyses. All populations were found to show a gene diversity index that is consistent with that expected in a cross-fertilising species. The highest gene diversity measures were recorded in some of the island populations. Both PCA and cluster analysis grouped the Balearic Island populations together and separated the Spanish and Sardinian populations from any of the others. The results are discussed with respect to a number of theories of migration between populations, and in relation to the colonization history of each island. It is suggested that the preservation of these island populations in gene banks is important as part of a core collection of the species.     

Population size and time since island isolation determine genetic diversity loss in insular frog populations

Understanding the factors that contribute to loss of genetic diversity in fragmented populations is crucial for conservation measurements. Land‐bridge archipelagoes offer ideal model systems for identifying the long‐term effects of these factors on genetic variations in wild populations. In this study, we used nine microsatellite markers to quantify genetic diversity and differentiation of 810 pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus) from 24 islands of the Zhoushan Archipelago and three sites on nearby mainland China and estimated the effects of the island area, population size, time since island isolation, distance to the mainland and distance to the nearest larger island on reduced genetic diversity of insular populations. The mainland populations displayed higher genetic diversity than insular populations. Genetic differentiations and no obvious gene flow were detected among the frog populations on the islands. Hierarchical partitioning analysis showed that only time since island isolation (square‐root‐transformed) and population size (log‐transformed) significantly contributed to insular genetic diversity. These results suggest that decreased genetic diversity and genetic differentiations among insular populations may have been caused by random genetic drift following isolation by rising sea levels during the Holocene. The results provide strong evidence for a relationship between retained genetic diversity and population size and time since island isolation for pond frogs on the islands, consistent with the prediction of the neutral theory for finite populations. Our study highlights the importance of the size and estimated isolation time of populations in understanding the mechanisms of genetic diversity loss and differentiation in fragmented wild populations.     

Inverse Medea as a novel gene drive system for local population replacement: a theoretical analysis

One strategy to control mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever, on a regional scale is to use gene drive systems to spread disease-refractory genes into wild mosquito populations. The development of a synthetic Medea element that has been shown to drive population replacement in laboratory Drosophila populations has provided encouragement for this strategy but has also been greeted with caution over the concern that transgenes may spread into countries without their consent. Here, we propose a novel gene drive system, inverse Medea, which is strong enough to bring about local population replacement but is unable to establish itself beyond an isolated release site. The system consists of 2 genetic components--a zygotic toxin and maternal antidote--which render heterozygous offspring of wild-type mothers unviable. Through population genetic analysis, we show that inverse Medea will only spread when it represents a majority of the alleles in a population. The element is best located on an autosome and will spread to fixation provided any associated fitness costs are dominant and to very high frequency otherwise. We suggest molecular tools that could be used to build the inverse Medea system and discuss its utility for a confined release of transgenic mosquitoes.     

Estimates of gene flow, genetic substructure and population heterogeneity in bracken (Pteridium aquilinum)

Bracken [ Pteridium aquilinum (L.) Kuhn] is a cosmopolitan species and is a noxious weed in many areas. Because of its abundance, particularly in Britain, bracken affords an ideal system for investigating various aspects of population genetics and evolution. High mobility of dispersal units (spores) suggests that rates of gene flow among distant populations should be high. Gene flow is a major evolutionary force that influences the genetic structure of populations. To examine the effects of gene flow on population heterogeneity and population substructuring in bracken, starch gel electrophoresis of enzymes was used to provide the necessary genetic database. Allele frequency data at 21 loci were obtained for seven British populations, one Majorcan and one from the eastern United States. A model was employed to estimate the amount of gene flow ( Nm ) at several levels. Gene flow among British populations was extremely high ( Nm = 36.51), one of the highest estimates reported for plants. Among eight European populations gene flow was lower (but still considered high) at Nm = 2.47. Trans-Atlantic gene flow was low ( Nm = 0.0926).
F -statistics were used to assess population heterogeneity and substructuring. The data indicate that, compared with other species, there is very little genetic differentiation among British populations of bracken. Indeed, it appears that the whole island is behaving as a single randommating population. This result is consistent with high levels of gene flow. Only one population (on the Isle of Arran) showed statistically significant genetic substructuring. Habitat heterogeneity on the island and age structure are hypothesized as possible causes of this result.
The data reported here support previous studies demonstrating that bracken is genetically polymorphic and is an outcrossing species.     

用遗传标记监测不同环境和经营措施下的加勒比松森林群体遗传动态

对古巴加勒比松的6个群体（包括天然林、采伐林、母树林和种子园）进行了同功酶分析,根据5个酶系统8个位点的同功酶数据,对各群 交配系统以及群体遗传变异和结构进行了分析,天然林、种子园和母树林的多位点异交率和绝大多数单位点异交率都和完全异交无显著差异,过渡采伐的松树岛群体多位点异交率显著小于完全异交,而只有一半单位点异交率显著小于完全异交,而且该群体单位点平均异交率和多位点异交率均低于其它3个群体的估计值。采伐群体中同功酶变异和基因多样性与天然林群体JAG的相似,但低于其它群体,其近交系数较大,但小于天然林MAN和中国栽培群体的近交系数。中国引种栽培群体无论是同功酶变异还是基因多样性都显著高于古巴群体,与所有古巴群体的遗传距离都显著大于古巴群体之间的遗传距离。结果表明过度采伐导致群体自交程度增加,营建种子园可有效减少近交。自然分布区以外的引种栽培群体遗传变化量大,无论遗传变异和基因多样性都比参试其它群体大。     

Analysis of microsatellite variation in Pinus radiata reveals effects of genetic drift but no recent bottlenecks

Most conifer species occur in large continuous populations, but radiata pine, Pinus radiata, occurs only in five disjunctive natural populations in California and Mexico. The Mexican island populations were presumably colonized from the mainland millions of years ago. According to Axelrod (1981), the mainland populations are relicts of an earlier much wider distribution, reduced some 8,000 years ago, whereas according to Millar (1997, 2000), the patchy metapopulation-like structure is typical of the long-term population demography of the species. We used 19 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci to describe population structure and to search for signs of the dynamics of population demography over space and time. Frequencies of null alleles at microsatellite loci were estimated using an approach based on the probability of identity by descent. Microsatellite genetic diversities were high in all populations [expected heterozygosity (H(e)) = 0.68-0.77], but the island populations had significantly lower estimates. Variation between loci in genetic differentiation (F(ST)) was high, but no locus deviated statistically significantly from the rest at an experiment wide level of 0.05. Thus, all loci were included in subsequent analysis. The average differentiation was measured as F(ST) = 0.14 (SD 0.012), comparable with earlier allozyme results. The island populations were more diverged from the other populations and from an inferred common ancestral gene pool than the mainland ones. All populations showed a deficiency of expected heterozygosity given the number of alleles, the mainland populations more so than the island ones. The results thus do not support a recent important contraction in the mainland range of radiata pine.     

MGDrivE 2: A simulation framework for gene drive systems incorporating seasonality and epidemiological dynamics

Interest in gene drive technology has continued to grow as promising new drive systems have been developed in the lab and discussions are moving towards implementing field trials. The prospect of field trials requires models that incorporate a significant degree of ecological detail, including parameters that change over time in response to environmental data such as temperature and rainfall, leading to seasonal patterns in mosquito population density. Epidemiological outcomes are also of growing importance, as: i) the suitability of a gene drive construct for release will depend on its expected impact on disease transmission, and ii) initial field trials are expected to have a measured entomological outcome and a modeled epidemiological outcome. We present MGDrivE 2 (Mosquito Gene Drive Explorer 2): a significant development from the MGDrivE 1 simulation framework that investigates the population dynamics of a variety of gene drive architectures and their spread through spatially-explicit mosquito populations. Key strengths and fundamental improvements of the MGDrivE 2 framework are: i) the ability of parameters to vary with time and induce seasonal population dynamics, ii) an epidemiological module accommodating reciprocal pathogen transmission between humans and mosquitoes, and iii) an implementation framework based on stochastic Petri nets that enables efficient model formulation and flexible implementation. Example MGDrivE 2 simulations are presented to demonstrate the application of the framework to a CRISPR-based split gene drive system intended to drive a disease-refractory gene into a population in a confinable and reversible manner, incorporating time-varying temperature and rainfall data. The simulations also evaluate impact on human disease incidence and prevalence. Further documentation and use examples are provided in vignettes at the project’s CRAN repository. MGDrivE 2 is freely available as an open-source R package on CRAN (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=MGDrivE2). We intend the package to provide a flexible tool capable of modeling gene drive constructs as they move closer to field application and to infer their expected impact on disease transmission.     

Parasites contribute to ecologically dependent postmating isolation in the adaptive radiation of three-spined stickleback

Spatial variation in parasitic infections is common, and has the potential to drive population divergence and the reproductive isolation of hosts. However, despite support from theory and model laboratory systems, little strong evidence has been forthcoming from the wild. Here, we show that parasites are likely to cause reproductive isolation in the adaptive radiation of three-spined stickleback. Adjacent wild populations on the Scottish island of North Uist differ greatly and consistently in the occurrence of different parasites that have substantial effects on fitness. Laboratory-reared fish are more resistant to experimental infection by parasite species from their own population. Furthermore, hybrid backcrosses between the host populations are more resistant to parasites from the parental population to which they are more closely related. These patterns provide strong evidence that parasites can cause ecological speciation, by contributing to selection against migrants and ecologically dependent postmating isolation.     

Genetic drift and rapid evolution of viviparity in insular fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra)

Continental islands offer an excellent opportunity to investigate adaptive processes and to time microevolutionary changes that precede macroevolutionary events. We performed a population genetic study of the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra), a species that displays unique intraspecific diversity of reproductive strategies, to address the microevolutionary processes leading to phenotypic and genetic differentiation of island, coastal and interior populations. We used eight microsatellite markers to estimate genetic diversity, population structure and demographic parameters in viviparous insular populations and ovoviviparous coastal and interior populations. Our results show considerable genetic differentiation (F(ST) range: 0.06-0.27), and no clear signs of gene flow among populations, except between the large and admixed interior populations. We find no support for island colonization by rafting or intentional/accidental anthropogenic introductions, indicating that rising sea levels were responsible for isolation of the island populations approximately 9000 years ago. Our study provides evidence of rapid genetic differentiation between island and coastal populations, and rapid evolution of viviparity driven by climatic selective pressures on island populations, geographic isolation with genetic drift, or a combination of these factors. Studies of these viviparous island populations in early stages of divergence help us better understand the microevolutionary processes involved in rapid phenotypic shifts.     

Evolutionary Sparse Learning for Phylogenomics

We introduce a supervised machine learning approach with sparsity constraints for phylogenomics, referred to as evolutionary sparse learning (ESL). ESL builds models with genomic loci—such as genes, proteins, genomic segments, and positions—as parameters. Using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator, ESL selects only the most important genomic loci to explain a given phylogenetic hypothesis or presence/absence of a trait. ESL models do not directly involve conventional parameters such as rates of substitutions between nucleotides, rate variation among positions, and phylogeny branch lengths. Instead, ESL directly employs the concordance of variation across sequences in an alignment with the evolutionary hypothesis of interest. ESL provides a natural way to combine different molecular and nonmolecular data types and incorporate biological and functional annotations of genomic loci in model building. We propose positional, gene, function, and hypothesis sparsity scores, illustrate their use through an example, and suggest several applications of ESL. The ESL framework has the potential to drive the development of a new class of computational methods that will complement traditional approaches in evolutionary genomics, particularly for identifying influential loci and sequences given a phylogeny and building models to test hypotheses. ESL’s fast computational times and small memory footprint will also help democratize big data analytics and improve scientific rigor in phylogenomics.     

Cryptic invasion drives phenotypic changes in central European threespine stickleback

Cryptic invasions are commonly associated with genetic changes of the native species or genetic lineage that the invaders replace. Phenotypic shifts resulting from cryptic invasions are less commonly reported given the relative paucity of historical specimens that document such phenotypic changes. Here, I study such a case in two populations of threespine stickleback from central Europe, comparing contemporary patterns of gene flow with phenotypic changes between historical and contemporary population samples. I find gene flow from an invasive lineage to be associated with significant phenotypic changes, where the degree of phenotypic change corresponds with the level of gene flow that a population receives. These findings underline the utility of combining genetic approaches with phenotypic data to estimate the impact of gene flow in systems where anthropogenic alterations have removed former geographic barriers promoting cryptic invasions.