Time trends in educational differences in lung and upper aero digestive tract cancer mortality in France between 1990 and 2007

Background: We investigated the magnitude of educational differences in lung and upper aero digestive tract (UADT) cancer mortality in France from 1990 to 2007. Methods: The analyses were based on census data from a representative sample of the French population. Educational level was used as the indicator for socioeconomic status. Educational differences in mortality from lung and UADT cancer were calculated among people aged 30–74 and by birth cohort. Two periods were compared: 1990–1998 and 1999–2007. Mortality rates, hazard ratios and relative indices of inequality (RII) were computed. Results: We found higher lung and UADT cancer mortality among those with less education. Inequalities in male UADT cancer mortality remained stable over time (RII_1990–1998 = 0.21 (95% confidence interval 0.15–0.29); RII_1999–2007 = 0.17 (0.11–0.26)) whereas inequalities in lung cancer mortality increased among the younger men (RII_1990–1998 = 0.48 (0.28–0.83); RII_1999–2007 = 0.16 (0.09–0.31)). Among women, inequalities in lung cancer mortality became apparent during the second period with higher mortality among those with less education. This trend was exclusively driven by the younger women, among whom inequalities reached about the same magnitude as among younger men (RII_1999–2007 = 0.21 (0.08–0.56)). Conclusion: UADT cancer mortality rates strongly decreased over time for every educational level. This implies that the burden of health associated with socioeconomic inequalities in UADT cancer mortality decreased substantially. Inequalities in lung cancer mortality are increasing among the younger generation and are expected to increase even more. Differences in magnitude of inequalities among men and women may disappear in the coming decades.     

Cancer incidence and mortality in people aged less than 75 years: Changes in Australia over the period 1987–2007

BackgroundAustralia has one of the highest rates of cancer incidence worldwide and, despite improving survival, cancer continues to be a major public health problem. Our aim was to provide simple summary measures of changes in cancer mortality and incidence in Australia so that progress and areas for improvement in cancer control can be identified.MethodsWe used national data on cancer deaths and newly registered cancer cases and compared expected and observed numbers of deaths and cases diagnosed in 2007. The expected numbers were obtained by applying 1987 age–sex specific rates (average of 1986–1988) directly to the 2007 population. The observed numbers of deaths and incident cases were calculated for 2007 (average of 2006–2008). We limited the analyses to people aged less than 75 years.ResultsThere was a 28% fall in cancer mortality (7827 fewer deaths in 2007 vs. 1987) and a 21% increase in new cancer diagnoses (13,012 more diagnosed cases in 2007). The greatest reductions in deaths were for cancers of the lung in males (?2259), bowel (?1797), breast (?773) and stomach (?577). Other notable falls were for cancers of the prostate (?295), cervix (?242) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (?240). Only small or no changes occurred in mortality for cancers of the lung (female only), pancreas, brain and related, oesophagus and thyroid, with an increase in liver cancer (267). Cancer types that showed the greatest increase in incident cases were cancers of the prostate (10,245), breast (2736), other cancers (1353), melanoma (1138) and thyroid (1107), while falls were seen for cancers of the lung (?1705), bladder (?1110) and unknown primary (?904).ConclusionsThe reduction in mortality indicates that prevention strategies, improvements in cancer treatment, and screening programmes have made significant contributions to cancer control in Australia since 1987. The rise in incidence is partly due to diagnoses being brought forward by technological improvements and increased coverage of screening and early diagnostic testing.     

Forecasting age-related changes in breast cancer mortality among white and black US women: a functional data approach

Background: The disparity in breast cancer mortality rates among white and black US women is widening, with higher mortality rates among black women. We apply functional time series models on age-specific breast cancer mortality rates for each group of women, and forecast their mortality curves using exponential smoothing state-space models with damping. Materials and Methods: The data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the US [1]. Mortality data were obtained from the National Centre for Health Statistics (NCHS) available on the SEER*Stat database. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates from 1969 to 2004 in 5-year age groups (45–49, 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84). Age-specific mortality curves were obtained using nonparametric smoothing methods. The curves are then decomposed using functional principal components and we fit functional time series models with four basis functions for each population separately. The curves from each population are forecast and prediction intervals are calculated. Results: Twenty-year forecasts indicate an overall decline in future breast cancer mortality rates for both groups of women. This decline appears to be steeper among white women aged 55–73 and black women aged 60–84. For black women under 55 years of age, the forecast rates are relatively stable indicating there is no significant change in future breast cancer mortality rates among young black women in the next 20 years. Conclusion: White women have smooth and consistent patterns in breast cancer mortality rates for all age-groups whereas the mortality rates for black women are much more variable. The projections suggest, for some age groups, black American women may not benefit equally from the overall decline in breast cancer mortality in the United States.     

Contribution of changes in demography and in the risk factors to the predicted pattern of cancer mortality among Spanish women by 2022

BackgroundChanges in the burden of cancer mortality are expected to be observed among Spanish women. We predict those changes, in Spain, for breast cancer (BC), colorectal cancer (CRC), lung cancer (LC) and pancreatic cancer (PC) from 2013 to 2022.MethodsBayesian age–period–cohort modeling was used to perform projections of the cancer burden in 2013–2022, extrapolating the trend of cancer mortality data from 1998 to 2012. We assessed the time trends of the crude rates (CRs) during 1998–2012, and compared the number of cancer deaths between the periods 2008–2012 and 2018–2022 to assess the contribution of demographic changes and changes in the risk factors for cancer.ResultsDuring 1998–2012, CRs of cancer decreased for BC (0.3% per year) and increased for LC (4.7%), PC (2%) and CRC (0.7%). During 2013–2022, CRs might level off for CRC, whereas the time trends for the remaining cancers might continue at a similar pace. During 2018–2022, BC could be surpassed by CRC as the most frequent cause of cancer mortality among Spanish women, whereas LC could be the most common cause of cancer mortality among women aged 50–69 years (N/year = 1960 for BC versus N/year = 1981 for LC). Comparing 2018–2022 and 1998–2012, changes in the risk factors for cancer could contribute 37.93% and 18.36% to the burden of LC and PC, respectively, and demographic shifts – mainly due to ageing (19.27%) – will drive the burden of CRC.ConclusionsDuring 2018–2022, demographic changes (ageing) and changes in risk factors could have a different impact on the lifetime risk of cancer among Spanish women.     

Impact of the UK colorectal cancer screening pilot studies on incidence, stage distribution and mortality trends

Objective: To assess the impact of the UK colorectal cancer guaiac faecal occult blood test screening pilot studies on incidence trends, stage distribution and mortality trends. Design: Ecological study. Setting: Scotland and the West Midlands. Data: We extracted anonymised colorectal cancer (ICD-10 C18–C20) registration (1982–2006) and death records (1982–2007), along with corresponding mid-year population estimates. Intervention: Residents of the screening pilot areas, in the age group 50–69 years, were offered biennial guaiac faecal occult blood test screening from 2000 onwards. Screening was not offered routinely in non-pilot areas until the start of the roll-out of the national screening programmes in England and in Scotland in 2006 and 2007, respectively. Main outcome measures: We analysed trends in age-specific incidence and mortality rates, and Dukes’ stage distribution. Within each country/region, we compared the screening pilot areas to non-screening pilot (‘control’) areas using Chi square tests and Poisson regression modelling. Results: Following the start of the screening pilots, as expected in the prevalent round of a new screening programme, in the pilot areas there was a short-lived increase in incidence of colorectal cancer among 50–69 year olds except for females in the West Midlands. A trend towards earlier stage and less advanced disease was also observed, with males showing significant increases in Dukes’ A and corresponding decreases in Dukes’ C in the screening pilot areas (all P < 0.03). With the exception of females in the West Midlands, mortality rates for colorectal cancer decreased significantly and at a faster rate in the populations invited for screening. Conclusion: The existence of a natural control population not yet invited for screening provided a unique opportunity to assess whether the benefits of colorectal cancer screening, beyond the setting of a randomised controlled trial, could be detected using routinely collected statistics. Our analysis suggests that screening will fulfil its aim of reducing mortality from colorectal cancer.     

Assessing Population Viability of Black Bears using Spatial Capture-Recapture Models

The Central Georgia Bear Population (CGP) is the least abundant and most isolated of Georgia's 3 American black bear (Ursus americanus) populations. Beginning in 2011, changes to regulations governing harvest of the CGP resulted in an increase in female bear harvest, creating concern that future harvest could be an important influence on population viability. Hence, our objective was to assess viability of the CGP under various levels of female mortality. During 2012–2016, we used barbed-wire hair snares to collect bear hair samples from within the range of the CGP in Georgia, USA. We used microsatellite genotyping to identify individual bears and created robust-design, spatial detection histories for all female bears detected. We fit open population spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models to the detection histories in a Bayesian framework. We used the Widely Applicable Information Criterion (WAIC) to rank models that varied with respect to sources of variation in detection probability, survival, and per capita recruitment, and used the model with the lowest WAIC to forecast dynamics of the CGP 50 years into the future under various levels of female mortality. We assessed the 50-year extinction probability under a continuation of mortality levels documented during 2012–2016, and under incremental increases in female mortality above this baseline. The top model included density-dependent per capita recruitment, annual variation in detection probability, and a trap-level behavioral response. Abundance increased from 106 (95% CI = 86–132) females in 2012 to 136 (95% CI = 113–161) females in 2013 and remained relatively stable thereafter. Annual female survival was 0.75 (95% CI = 0.69–0.82) and did not vary among years. The per capita recruitment rate decreased over time as density increased, and was 0.49 (95% CI = 0.33–0.66) during the first time interval and 0.29 (95% CI = 0.20–0.38) during the final time interval. Annual growth rate () was 1.28 (95% CI = 1.07–1.52) between 2012 and 2013 but decreased throughout the study, ending at 1.04 (95% CI = 0.93–1.17). Forecasts indicated continuation of the female mortality levels experienced from 2012–2016 were sustainable over 50 years, with the estimated extinction risk being <0.001%. Increasing annual harvest by 5 females introduced a negligible increase in the 50-year probability of extinction, but harvesting an additional 10 females/year caused extinction risk to rise to 1.15%. We recommend that harvest regulations are structured such that mortality rates remain at current levels or do not increase by more than an annual average of 5 females above levels observed during our study. Furthermore, we recommend that managers continue to monitor the population so that harvest regulations and population models can be refined over time. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Profile of cancer in the Eastern Mediterranean region: The need for action

BackgroundMany countries in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) are undergoing marked demographic and socioeconomic transitions that are increasing the cancer burden in region. We sought to examine the national cancer incidence and mortality profiles as a support to regional cancer control planning in the EMR.MethodsGLOBOCAN 2012 data were used to estimate cancer incidence and mortality by country, cancer type, sex and age in 22 EMR countries. We calculated age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (per 100,000) using direct method of standardization.ResultsThe cancer incidence and mortality rates vary considerably between countries in the EMR. Incidence rates were highest in Lebanon (204 and 193 per 100,000 in males and females, respectively). Mortality rates were highest in Lebanon (119) and Egypt (121) among males and in Somalia (117) among females. The profile of common cancers differs substantially by sex. For females, breast cancer is the most common cancer in all 22 countries, followed by cervical cancer, which ranks high only in the lower-income countries in the region. For males, lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer in combination represent almost 30% of the cancer burden in countries that have attained very high levels of human development.ConclusionsThe most common cancers are largely amenable to preventive strategies by primary and/or secondary prevention, hence a need for effective interventions tackling lifestyle risk factors and infections. The high mortality observed from breast and cervical cancer highlights the need to break the stigmas and improve awareness surrounding these cancers.     

Quantifying the changes in survival inequality for Indigenous people diagnosed with cancer in Queensland,Australia

The survival inequality faced by Indigenous Australians after a cancer diagnosis is well documented; what is less understood is whether this inequality has changed over time and what this means in terms of the impact a cancer diagnosis has on Indigenous people. Survival information for all patients identified as either Indigenous (n = 3168) or non-Indigenous (n = 211,615) and diagnosed in Queensland between 1997 and 2012 were obtained from the Queensland Cancer Registry, with mortality followed up to 31st December, 2013. Flexible parametric survival models were used to quantify changes in the cause-specific survival inequalities and the number of lives that might be saved if these inequalities were removed. Among Indigenous cancer patients, the 5-year cause-specific survival (adjusted by age, sex and broad cancer type) increased from 52.9% in 1997–2006 to 58.6% in 2007–2012, while it improved from 61.0% to 64.9% among non-Indigenous patients. This meant that the adjusted 5-year comparative survival ratio (Indigenous: non-Indigenous) increased from 0.87 [0.83–0.88] to 0.89 [0.87–0.93], with similar improvements in the 1-year comparative survival. Using a simulated cohort corresponding to the number and age-distribution of Indigenous people diagnosed with cancer in Queensland each year (n = 300), based on the 1997–2006 cohort mortality rates, 35 of the 170 deaths due to cancer (21%) expected within five years of diagnosis were due to the Indigenous: non-Indigenous survival inequality. This percentage was similar when applying 2007–2012 cohort mortality rates (19%; 27 out of 140 deaths). Indigenous people diagnosed with cancer still face a poorer survival outlook than their non-Indigenous counterparts, particularly in the first year after diagnosis. The improving survival outcomes among both Indigenous and non-Indigenous cancer patients, and the decreasing absolute impact of the Indigenous survival disadvantage, should provide increased motivation to continue and enhance current strategies to further reduce the impact of the survival inequalities faced by Indigenous people diagnosed with cancer.     

Interannual Variability in Survival Rates for Adult Female White-Tailed Deer

Adult female survival is an important component to population models and management programs for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), but short-term survival studies (1–3 yrs) may not accurately reflect the variation in interannual survival, which could alter management decisions. We monitored annual survival and cause-specific mortality rates of adult female white-tailed deer (n = 158) for 6 years (2010–2012, 2016–2018) in southern Delaware, USA. Annual survival rate differed among years. Survival rates (±SE) and mortality causes were similar in 3 years (2011 = 0.72 ± 0.08, 2017 = 0.68 ± 0.08, 2018 = 0.74 ± 0.09) and comparable to previous research from mixed forest-agricultural landscapes. A relatively low survival rate in 2010 (0.48 ± 0.11) was influenced by hunter harvest and potentially compounded by abnormally severe winter conditions in the prior year. A peracute outbreak of hemorrhagic disease occurred during summer 2012, resulting in an annual survival rate of 0.38 ± 0.11, and to our knowledge is the first reported case of a hemorrhagic disease outbreak in a monitored wild population with known fates. In 2016, we did not observe any harvest mortality, resulting in high annual survival (0.96 ± 0.04). Our results demonstrate the degree of variability in annual survival and cause-specific mortality rates within a population. We caution against the use of short-term survival studies to inform management decisions, particularly when incorporating survival data into population models or when setting harvest objectives. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Quantitative health impact of indoor radon in France

Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. Since the previous quantitative risk assessment of indoor radon conducted in France, input data have changed such as, estimates of indoor radon concentrations, lung cancer rates and the prevalence of tobacco consumption. The aim of this work was to update the risk assessment of lung cancer mortality attributable to indoor radon in France using recent risk models and data, improving the consideration of smoking, and providing results at a fine geographical scale. The data used were population data (2012), vital statistics on death from lung cancer (2008–2012), domestic radon exposure from a recent database that combines measurement results of indoor radon concentration and the geogenic radon potential map for France (2015), and smoking prevalence (2010). The risk model used was derived from a European epidemiological study, considering that lung cancer risk increased by 16% per 100 becquerels per cubic meter (Bq/m³) indoor radon concentration. The estimated number of lung cancer deaths attributable to indoor radon exposure is about 3000 (1000; 5000), which corresponds to about 10% of all lung cancer deaths each year in France. About 33% of lung cancer deaths attributable to radon are due to exposure levels above 100 Bq/m³. Considering the combined effect of tobacco and radon, the study shows that 75% of estimated radon-attributable lung cancer deaths occur among current smokers, 20% among ex-smokers and 5% among never-smokers. It is concluded that the results of this study, which are based on precise estimates of indoor radon concentrations at finest geographical scale, can serve as a basis for defining French policy against radon risk.     

Trends in advanced breast cancer incidence rates after implementation of a mammography screening program in a German population

BackgroundMammography screening programs (MSPs) aim to detect early-stage breast cancers in order to decrease the incidence of advanced-stage breast cancers and to reduce breast cancer mortality. We analyzed the time trends of advanced-stage breast cancer incidence rates in the target population before and after implementation of the MSP in a region of northwestern Germany.MethodsThe MSP in the Münster district started in October 2005. A total of 13,874 women with an incident invasive breast cancer (BC) was identified by the population-based epidemiological cancer registry between 2000 and 2013 in the target group 50–69 years. Multiple imputation methods were used to replace missing data on tumor stages (10.4%). The incidence rates for early-stage (UICC I) and advanced-stage (UICC II+) BC were determined, and Poisson regression analyses were performed to assess trends over time.ResultsThe incidence rates for UICC I breast cancers increased during the step-up introduction of the MSP and remained elevated thereafter. By contrast, after increasing from 2006 to 2008, the incidence rates of UICC II+ breast cancers decreased to levels below the pre-screening period. Significantly decreasing UICC II+ incidence rates were limited to the age group 55–69 years and reached levels that were significantly lower than incidence rates in the pre-screening period.DiscussionThe incidence rates of advanced-stage breast cancers decreased in the age groups from 55 years to the upper age limit for screening eligibility, but not in the adjacent age groups. The findings are consistent with MSP lead time effects and seem to indicate that the MSP lowers advanced-stage breast cancer rates in the target population.     

Trends in cancer mortality rates among migrants in Australia: 1981-2007

Background: Previous studies have shown that migrants have lower cancer mortality rates compared to the Australian-born population, particularly for colorectal and breast cancers, which are associated with an affluent lifestyle. This study seeks to update knowledge in this field by examining mortality from colorectal, stomach, lung, melanoma, breast and bladder cancers, as well as all cancers combined between 1981 and 2007. Methods: Data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Average annual age and sex-standardised mortality rates were calculated for each region of birth, period of death registration and cancer site. Results: Generally, mortality rates declined over the study period for most conditions for the majority of migrant groups. Notable exceptions included migrants from South Eastern Europe and Eastern Europe who experienced a significant increase in mortality due to all cancers combined and Australian-born individuals who recorded a significant increase in mortality due to melanoma of the skin. Migrants generally had more favourable cancer mortality outcomes, particularly for colorectal cancer and melanoma. Migrants from Southern Europe, South Eastern Europe, Chinese Asia and Southern Asia had the greatest advantage. However, migrants displayed higher rates of stomach, lung and bladder cancers than the Australian-born population. Conclusion: The migrant advantage can in part be explained by the protective effects of diet, lifestyle and reproductive behaviours. Possible explanations for why some migrants display greater mortality from stomach and bladder cancer include the consumption of abrasive, salted and preserved foods and higher rates of smoking. Greater emphasis should be placed on targeting at-risk migrant groups through screening and education programs at migrant resource centres and community groups. The study calls for further research to explain the observed trends, which has the potential to uncover important risk and protective factors.     

Recent trends in breast cancer incidence rates in the Loire-Atlantique,France: A decline since 2003

Background: A recent decline in breast cancer incidence rates has been reported in the United States and in Europe. This decrease has been partly attributed to the reduced use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT). No study in Europe has detailed recent breast cancer incidence trends both by hormonal receptor status and mode of detection at an individual level. Methods: We examined trends in breast cancer incidence rates in the French administrative area of Loire-Atlantique between 1991 and 2007, by age, mode of detection, histological subtype, estrogen/progesterone receptor (ER/PR) status and grade. Annual age-standardized breast cancer incidence rates were estimated using the Loire-Atlantique and Vendée Cancer Registry data. Annual percentage changes (APCs) were estimated using an age-adjusted Poisson regression model. Results: Incidence rates of breast cancer increased 3.5% per year in 1991–2003, dropped ?4.3% per year in 2003–2006 and increased in 2007 (9.1%). Stratified analyses by age groups showed that the decrease concerned predominantly women aged 50–64 years, whereas an increasing proportion of cancers detected by organized screening was observed in this age group. Among these women, the decline of incidence particularly concerned positive estrogen and progesterone receptor tumors, lobular subtype tumors, and low-grade tumors. Conclusion: The drop in breast cancer incidence rates observed between 2003 and 2006 in women 50–64 years old was greater for ER+PR+ tumors. During the same period, the incidence of breast cancers diagnosed by organized screening increased. These patterns appear consistent with an impact of the reduced use of HRT.     

Cancer mortality 1981–2016 and contribution of specific cancers to current socioeconomic inequalities in all cancer mortality: A population-based study

BackgroundIn many high-income countries cancer mortality rates have declined, however, socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have widened over time with those in the most deprived areas bearing the greatest burden. Less is known about the contribution of specific cancers to inequalities in total cancer mortality.MethodsUsing high-quality routinely collected population and mortality records we examine long-term trends in cancer mortality rates in Scotland by age group, sex, and area deprivation. We use the decomposed slope and relative indices of inequality to identify the specific cancers that contribute most to absolute and relative inequalities, respectively, in total cancer mortality.ResultsCancer mortality rates fell by 24 % for males and 10 % for females over the last 35 years; declining across all age groups except females aged 75+ where rates rose by 14 %. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer death. Mortality rates of lung cancer have more than halved for males since 1981, while rates among females have almost doubled over the same period.ConclusionCurrent relative inequalities in total cancer mortality are dominated by inequalities in lung cancer mortality, but with contributions from other cancer sites including liver, and head and neck (males); and breast (females), stomach and cervical (younger females). An understanding of which cancer sites contribute most to inequalities in total cancer mortality is crucial for improving cancer health and care, and for reducing preventable cancer deaths.     

Five-year relative survival and determinants of excess mortality in patients with head and neck and thyroid cancers: A population-based study from Golestan province,Northern Iran

BackgroundWe aimed to assess relative survival (RS) and determinants of excess mortality rate in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) and thyroid cancer in Golestan province, Northern Iran.MethodsWe recruited new primary HNSCC and thyroid cancer cases from Golestan, 2006–2016. Five-year age-standardized RS with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. The relationships between different variables with excess mortality rates were assessed by estimating adjusted excess hazard ratios (aEHRs) with their 95% CIs.ResultsOverall, 718 cases of HNSCC and 386 thyroid cancer cases were enrolled. Five-year age-standardized RS (95% CI) were 36% (31−41) and 61% (52−69) in HNSCC and thyroid cancer patients, respectively. There were significant relationship between excess mortality rates in HNSCC patients with metastasis (aEHR= 3.31; 95%CI: 2.26–4.84), treatment type (4.19; 2.54–6.91, for no treatment as compared to receiving both surgery and chemoradiotherapy), age (2.16; 1.57–2.96, for older age group) and smoking (2.00; 1.45–2.75, for smokers as compared to non-smokers). Determinant of the excess mortality in thyroid cancer patients included metastasis (19.65; 8.08–47.79), tumor morphology (12.27; 4.62–32.58, for anaplastic cancer as compared to papillary cancer), treatment type (8.95, 4.13–19.4, for no treatment as compared to receiving both surgery and iodine therapy) and age (2.31; 1.17–4.54, for older age group).ConclusionOur findings suggested low RS for thyroid cancer in our population, while the estimates for HNSCC were comparable with other population. Metastasis, treatment type and age were determinants of mortality both in thyroid and HNSCC patients.     

Cancer mortality in Itapúa—A rural province of Paraguay 2003–2012

BackgroundItapúa is a rural department in Paraguay with a population of about 500,000 and a high degree of agro-mechanization for the production of soybean and other crops. So far, only basic health care is provided. Here we analyzed the cancer mortality in this region as a first step towards epidemiological data for cancer prevention.MethodsWe calculated the age-adjusted mortality rates according to world standard (AMRWs) for the major cancer sites in both males and females between 2003 and 2012, and estimated the differences between the capital and more central districts of Itapúa vs. remote districts.ResultsThere were about 2000 cancer deaths in the decade studied, with AMRWs for all malignancies of 90.9/100,000 in males from central vs. 49.1/100,000 in remote districts and 69.0/100,000 vs. 45.0/100,000 in women. Cancer was mentioned in 12.4% of all death certificates and outweighed mortality from certain infectious and parasitic diseases (3.6%). Cause of death was ill-defined in 19.6% of all death certificates, especially in remote regions and among the elderly. The part of cancer located in the uterus (47.8%) or cell type of neoplasm of the lymphatic or hematopoietic system (73.1%) were often not specified. The uterus (mainly the cervix) (C53–C55) was the leading cancer site in women with AMRWs of 17.2/100,000 in central and 14.0/100,000 in remote districts, followed by the breast. Lung and prostate were the leading cancer sites among men. The lung cancer mortality rate was 19.3/100,000 in the central region but 9.5/100,000 in remote districts. Although children comprised 36% of the population, only 24 death certificates listed cancer as cause of death in this decade.ConclusionsAnalysis of cancer mortality in this rural region of Paraguay, which lacks resources for diagnostics and care, revealed an already large number of cases, with higher rates in the central region than in remote districts. Lung and uterus (primarily the cervix) are common cancer sites and indicate the potential for prevention. However, the quality of the vital statistics needs to be improved. The true cancer burden is most likely underestimated, especially in remote regions and children.     

Age-specific breast,uterine and ovarian cancer mortality trends in Spain: Changes from 1980 to 2006

Introduction: Cancers of the breast, uterus and ovary are responsible for 30% of the cancer deaths in Spanish women. In recent decades, Spain has experienced important socioeconomic transformations, which may have affected mortality trends. We present the current situation of mortality in Spain due to cancers of the breast, uterus and ovary, as well as trends over 1980–2006. Methods: Data on population and deaths due to cancers of the breast, uterus and ovary were obtained from records of the National Statistics Institute. Overall and age-specific changes in mortality of these tumors were studied using change-point Poisson regression models. Results: Breast cancer was responsible for more than 140,000 deaths of females in 1980–2006. Trend analysis of breast cancer mortality of women of all ages showed that rates increased 2.9% annually until 1992 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.5, 3.3). After 1992, mortality declined steadily at a rate of ?2.1% per year (95% CI = ?2.4, ?1.8). The number of deaths due to cancers of the uterus was 49,287 between the years 1980 and 2006. Uterine cancer mortality registered a steady decrease of ?1.9% every year since 1980 (95% CI = ?2.1, ?1.8). Ovarian cancer caused 36,157 deaths during the same period, with rates in women older than 50 years more than ten-fold those of younger women. Trend analysis showed a sharp increase of mortality up to 1998 (4.4% annually; 95% CI = 3.9, 4.8) followed by a stabilization. Conclusion: The downturn observed in mortality for these tumors mainly reflects improved survival as a result of earlier diagnosis and better cancer treatments. Cancer management is moving in the right direction in Spain.     

Increase in breast cancer incidence among older women in Mumbai: 30-year trends and predictions to 2025

Background: Increasing trends in the incidence of breast cancer have been observed in India, including Mumbai. These have likely stemmed from an increasing adoption of lifestyle factors more akin to those commonly observed in westernized countries. Analyses of breast cancer trends and corresponding estimation of the future burden are necessary to better plan rationale cancer control programmes within the country. Methods: We used data from the population-based Mumbai Cancer Registry to study time trends in breast cancer incidence rates 1976–2005 and stratified them according to younger (25–49) and older age group (50–74). Age-period-cohort models were fitted and the net drift used as a measure of the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Age-period-cohort models and population projections were used to predict the age-adjusted rates and number of breast cancer cases circa 2025. Results: Breast cancer incidence increased significantly among older women over three decades (EAPC = 1.6%; 95% CI 1.1–2.0), while lesser but significant 1% increase in incidence among younger women was observed (EAPC = 1.0; 95% CI 0.2–1.8). Non-linear period and cohort effects were observed; a trends-based model predicted a close-to-doubling of incident cases by 2025 from 1300 mean cases per annum in 2001–2005 to over 2500 cases in 2021–2025. Conclusions: The incidence of breast cancer has increased in Mumbai during last two to three decades, with increases greater among older women. The number of breast cancer cases is predicted to double to over 2500 cases, the vast majority affecting older women.