Role of Ecological Risk Assessment Findings in Agency Decision-Making Regarding Oyster Restoration in Chesapeake Bay

Failure of on-going management programs to restore oyster populations in Chesapeake Bay, USA, prompted state and federal agencies to consider the introduction of the non-native Asian oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis). An ecological risk assessment (ERA) of the proposed introduction was an essential element in preparation of a programmatic environmental impact statement (PEIS). The ERA had to assess risks of not only the proposed action (Asian oyster introduction) but also of the eight alternatives evaluated in the PEIS. The ERA suggested that the risk that the Asian oyster would not provide ecosystem services similar to those afforded by the native Eastern oyster was low, but there was moderate uncertainty associated with that conclusion. There was a non-zero risk of self-sustaining Asian oyster populations becoming established even if aquaculture with triploid, purportedly sterile Asian oysters were to be permitted. Nearly all of the risk conclusions had associated moderate to high uncertainty, not providing the level of proof that the agencies felt sufficient to justify proceeding with any action involving the Asian oyster. The irreversible nature of an introduction of the species bolstered that decision. Maryland and Virginia agencies have implemented numerous actions focused on the native oyster, but the outcome of these on-going actions is not yet known.     

Application of an Ecological Risk Assessment for Evaluation of Alternatives Considered for Restoration of Oysters in Chesapeake Bay: Background and Approach

Oyster populations in Chesapeake Bay, USA, declined precipitously over the past three decades, and on-going efforts to restore the native oysters to former abundance were considered to be ineffective. Maryland and Virginia natural resource agencies proposed the introduction of a non-native Asian oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis) that is resistant to diseases affecting the native oyster and well adapted to the Chesapeake Bay environment. Numerous stakeholders raised concerns about potential adverse consequences of an introduction of a non-native species into a new environment. In response, state and federal agencies determined that an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) should be prepared to address the environmental consequences of such an introduction as well as of seven other oyster restoration alternatives, including several involving only the native oyster. Preparation of an Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of the proposed action as well as all alternatives was an integral element of EIS preparation. This series of articles describes several different analyses that contributed to and collectively comprised the ERA conducted as input to the EIS. The final article of this series in HERA describes how the ERA and EIS findings were taken into account in the final decision on the preferred restoration alternative by state and federal agencies.     

Application of a Demographic Model for Evaluating Proposed Oyster-Restoration Actions in Chesapeake Bay

A demographic model was developed for oyster populations in the Chesapeake Bay, USA, to explore population responses to proposed management actions in support of an Environmental Impact Statement and Environmental Risk Assessment for oyster restoration. The model indicated that high natural mortality due to disease strongly controlled the population of native Eastern oysters. Continuing restoration effort at recent levels was predicted not to increase oyster populations. An enhanced restoration program that included habitat improvement and stocking would likely increase populations, particularly in areas with lower salinity where disease prevalence was lower. However, population numbers would likely reach a plateau much less than the restoration goal a few years after enhanced restoration efforts ended. A harvest moratorium was predicted to have a smaller positive effect than enhanced restoration. A moratorium likely would take much longer than the 10-year restoration period to meet restoration goals given the present high natural mortality rates. The proposed introduction of non-native Suminoe oysters was not modeled because insufficient data existed with which to parameterize the model. These results were used semi-quantitatively in the Ecological Risk Assessment to evaluate population trajectories and speculate about population changes more than 10 years after implementation of a management action.     

A Probabilistic Ecological Risk Assessment of Tributyltin in Surface Waters of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

The goal of this study was to conduct a probabilistic ecological risk assessment for tributyltin (TBT) in surface waters of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Ecological risk was characterized by comparing the probability distributions of environmental exposure concentrations with the probability distributions of species response data determined from laboratory studies. The overlap of these distributions was a measure of risk to aquatic life. Tributyltin exposure data from the Chesapeake Bay watershed were available from over 3600 water column samples from 41 stations in nine basins from 1985 through 1996. Most of the stations were located in the Virginia waters of Chesapeake Bay, primarily the James, Elizabeth and York Rivers. In Maryland waters of the Bay, various marina, harbor and river systems were also sampled. As expected, the highest environmental concentrations of tributyltin (based on 90th percentiles) were reported in and near marina areas. The sources of TBT causing these high concentrations were primarily boat hulls and painting/depainting operations. Lower concentrations of TBT were reported in open water areas, such as the Potomac River, Choptank River and C and D Canal, where the density of boats was minimal. Temporal data from a ten year data base (1986-1996) from two areas in Virginia showed that TBT water column concentrations have declined since 1987 legislation prohibited the use of TBT paints on recreation boats (<25?m). Acute saltwater and freshwater TBT toxicity data were available for 43 and 23 species, respectively. Acute effects for saltwater species were reported for concentrations exceeding 420?ng/L; the lowest acute value for a freshwater species was 1110?ng/L. The acute 10th percentiles for all saltwater and freshwater species were 320 and 103?ng/L, respectively. The order of sensitivity from most to least sensitive for saltwater trophic groups and corresponding acute 10th percentiles were as follows: zooplankton (5?ng/L), phytoplankton (124?ng/L), benthos (312?ng/L) and fish (1009?ng/L). For freshwater species, the order of sensitivity from most to least sensitive trophic groups and corresponding acute 10th percentiles were: benthos (44?ng/L), zooplankton (400?ng/L), and fish (849?ng/L). Chronic data for both saltwater and freshwater species were limited to a few species in each water type. Based on these limited data, the saltwater and freshwater chronic 10th percentiles were 5 and 102?ng/L, respectively. Limited mesocosm and microcosm studies in saltwater suggested that TBT concentrations less than 50?ng/L did not impact the structure and function of biological communities. The saltwater acute (320?ng/L) and chronic (5?ng/L) 10th percentiles were used to determine ecological risk because all exposure data were from saltwater areas of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Highest ecological risk was reported for marina areas in Maryland waters of Chesapeake Bay and for areas in Virginia such as the Elizabeth River, Hampton Creek and Sarah Creek. Low ecological risk was reported for areas such as the Potomac River, Choptank River, C and D Canal and Norfolk Harbor. Regulation of TBT on recreational watercraft in 1987 has successfully reduced water column concentrations of this organometallic compound. However, various studies have showed that TBT may remain in the sediment for years and continue to be source for water column exposures.     

Developing a risk assessment strategy for the Chesapeake Bay

Increased use of the world's natural resources, including water bodies such as the Chesapeake Bay, has resulted in additional burdens being placed on them. If continued, unrestricted use of such resources continues, degradation will occur to such an extent that some areas will be unsuitable for economic, social, and environmental uses. Regional risk assessment strategies must be developed so that actual or perceived risks can be evaluated and predicted on a regional scale. This article presents an initial strategy for the Chesapeake Bay that may be useful to scientists, managers, and elected officials responsible for other bodies of water as well. This article reviews risk assessment practices and proposes a strategy that utilizes appropriate endpoints to ascertain and predict risk.     

An integrated habitat enhancement approach to shoreline stabilization for a Chesapeake Bay island community

Shore protection and habitat enhancement along a residential island werethe main goals of this shoreline study. The physical and geological factorsnecessary to design shoreline stabilization structures capable of confidentlysupporting suitable and stable habitat enhancement/restoration substrate areemphasized since this area of study generally may be unfamiliar to wetlandresource managers. Erosion along the targeted shoreline is influenced by aunidirectional wave field from the south-southwest. Results of our analysesshowthat a headland control system comprised of headland breakwaters could be usedsuccessfully to stabilize the existing shoreline and provide resource managersflexibility in habitat restoration decisions. Headland breakwaters are designedto diffract wave energy so that shore planform equilibrium is attained and canbe sized and positioned to maximize the length of stabilized shoreline.Maximization of the new shoreline length provides increased subaerial,intertidal, and subaqueous environments for flexible habitat restorationalternatives. The final restoration design developed through this study willcreate approximately 69,000 m² of new habitat includingstable beach, dune, tidal marsh, scrub shrub, and submersed aquatic vegetation.An additional 2,000 m² of rock substrate habitat isprovided directly by the headland control structures.     

Seed viability and seed dormancy of non-native Phragmites australis in suburbanized and forested watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay, USA

The non-native, invasive haplotype of Phragmites australis is rapidly invading tidal and non-tidal wetlands across North America. Phragmites has the potential to spread by seeds and rhizomes. Seed viability and dormancy differences were quantified among 18 patches of non-native Phragmites in subestuarine wetlands in developed (i.e., suburbanized) vs. forested watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay. We used tetrazolium and germination assays to assess seed viability and compared germination percentages and rate of germination among fresh seeds, cold–moist treated seeds, and warm–dry treated seeds to evaluate seed dormancy. Seed viability was <1% in most patches but a few patches produced abundant viable seeds (5–21%). Seed viability, however, did not differ significantly between wetlands in forested vs. developed watersheds. Contrary to studies of Phragmites seed dormancy in European populations, some Phragmites seeds were dormant at maturity; cold–moist treated seeds germinated faster and to higher percentages than fresh seeds or warm–dry treated seeds.     

Effects of a Prorocentrum minimum bloom on light availability for and potential impacts on submersed aquatic vegetation in upper Chesapeake Bay

Extraordinary spring blooms of the dinoflagellate Prorocentrum minimum have been a recurring feature of upper Chesapeake Bay for many years. Though not thought to be toxic in Chesapeake Bay, these blooms produce extraordinarily high concentrations of chlorophyll, thereby increasing light attenuation. A particularly large event occurred in the spring of 2000. Here, we assess the impact of the spring 2000 P. minimum bloom on habitat quality for submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in the mesohaline region of Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries. We determined the light absorption and scattering spectrum of P. minimum on a per cell basis by analyzing inherent optical properties of natural samples from the Rhode River, Maryland, which were overwhelmingly dominated by P. minimum. Using these per cell properties, we constructed a model of light penetration incorporating observed cell counts of P. minimum to predict the impact of the bloom on other tributaries and main stem locations that experienced the bloom. Model estimates of diffuse attenuation coefficients agreed well with the limited measurements that were available. Impacts of the mahogany tide on diffuse attenuation coefficient ranged from negligible (10–30% increase above the seasonal median in the Patapsco and Magothy rivers), to a greater than six-fold increase (Potomac River). Attenuation coefficients in tributaries to the north and south of the bloom region either decreased or were unchanged relative to seasonal medians. Segments with SAV losses in 2000 were mostly the same as those that experienced the P. minimum bloom. Segments north and south of the bloom area mostly had SAV increases in 2000. Though all of the segments that experienced a decline in SAV area after the spring 2000 bloom showed an increase in 2002, the 2000 setback interrupted what otherwise has been a slow recovery in mid-Bay SAV, demonstrating the adverse impact of P. minimum blooms on SAV populations in Chesapeake Bay.     

Screening Evaluation of the Ecological Risks to Terrestrial Wildlife Associated with a Coal Ash Disposal Site

Between 1955 and 1989, coal ash was deposited within an impounded watershed on the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee, creating the 3.6?ha Filled Coal Ash Pond (FCAP). The site has subsequently become vegetated wildlife habitat. To evaluate risks that metals in ash may pose to wildlife; ash, surface water, small mammal, and vegetation samples were collected and metal residues were determined. Metal concentrations, As and Se in particular, were elevated in ash, surface water, plant foliage, and small mammals relative to reference materials. Estimates of metal exposures were calculated for short-tailed shrews, white-footed mice, white-tailed deer, red fox, and red-tailed hawks. While shrews and mice were assumed to reside exclusively at and receive 100% exposure from the site, exposure experienced by deer, fox, and hawks was assumed to be proportional to the size of the site relative to their home range. Because deer had been observed to consume ash, presumably for its high sodium content, exposure experienced by deer consuming ash to meet sodium requirements was also estimated. Exposure estimates were compared to body-size adjusted toxicity data for each metal. These comparisons suggest that metals at the site may be detrimental to reproduction and survivorship of mice, shrews, and deer consuming ash for sodium; fox and hawks do not appear to be at risk     

A genetic test for recruitment enhancement in Chesapeake Bay oysters, Crassostrea virginica, after population supplementation with a disease tolerant strain

Many of the methods currently employed to restore Chesapeake Bay populations of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, assume closed recruitment in certain sub-estuaries despite planktonic larval durations of 2–3 weeks. In addition, to combat parasitic disease, artificially selected disease tolerant oyster strains are being used for population supplementation. It has been impossible to fully evaluate these unconventional tactics because offspring from wild and selected broodstock are phenotypically indistinguishable. This study provides the first direct measurement of oyster recruitment enhancement by using genetic assignment tests to discriminate locally produced progeny of a selected oyster strain from progeny of wild parents. Artificially selected oysters (DEBY strain) were planted on a single reef in each of two Chesapeake Bay tributaries in 2002, but only in the Great Wicomico River (GWR) were they large enough to potentially reproduce the same year. Assignment tests based on eight microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA markers were applied to 1579 juvenile oysters collected throughout the GWR during the summer of 2002. Only one juvenile oyster was positively identified as an offspring of the 0.75 million DEBY oysters that were planted in the GWR, but 153 individuals (9.7%) had DEBY ×wild F1 multilocus genotypes. Because oyster recruitment was high across the region in 2002, the proportionately low enhancement measured in the GWR would not otherwise have been recognized. Possible causes for low enhancement success are discussed, each bearing on untested assumptions underlying the restoration methods, and all arguing for more intensive evaluation of each component of the restoration strategy.     

A Regional Multiple-Stressor Rank-Based Ecological Risk Assessment for the Fjord of Port Valdez,Alaska

We conducted an ecological risk assessment of the marine environment of Port Valdez, a fjord in south-central Alaska. Because the assessment was regional rather than site-specific and contained a large number of different stressors in a variety of environments, we required a nontraditional method to estimate risks. We created a Relative Risk Model to rank and sum individual risks numerically within each subarea, from each source, and to each habitat. Application of this model involved division of Port Valdez into 11 subareas containing specific ecological and anthropogenic structures and activities. Within each subarea, the stressor sources were analyzed to estimate exposure of receptors within habitats leading to effects relevant to the chosen assessment endpoints. The subareas were analyzed and compared to form a Port-wide perspective of ecological risk. Available chemical concentrations from sediment and mussels collected from the Port were compared to various toxicological benchmarks as a partial confirmation of the risk analysis. An estimation of the risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to marine invertebrates indicated low risk. The municipal boat harbor had the highest estimate, which reflected our relative risk rankings. The Relative Risk Model approach appears robust and has potential for use in situations where multiple stressors are of concern and for assessments covering broad geographic areas. In the Port Valdez assessment the approach provided relative risk rankings for chemical and physical stressors from various sources. But data were available for confirmation of risk estimates only for the chemical stressors. The rankings are relative, and extrapolation beyond the scenario in which they were developed is not warranted. Uncertainty is large, and the numerical scores collapse a multidimensional space into a single value. Use of just the numerical score out of context is more valid than with other indexes. The value of the approach lies in the relative rankings and the accounting of the components of the relative risk score.     

The Monofactorial Model for Recurrence Risks with Generalized Penetrance

Recurrence risks are derived explicitly in terms of gene frequencies and penetrance coefficients for the general case in which all genotypes have incomplete penetrance. Maximum likelihood estimation of recurrence risks is achieved through the use of the semi-symmetric intraclass contingency table. The resulting formulas and estimation procedure can be useful for the analysis of population and family data, and in genetic counselling.