How is Scientific Credibility Affected by Communicating Uncertainty? The Case of Endocrine Disrupter Effects on Male Fertility

Using the case of endocrine disrupter effects on male fertility, we explored how communicating uncertainty influences the credibility of the information that laypeople receive from scientists and how laypeople form judgments about the relationship between uncertainty and credibility. We found that laypeople assess the credibility of scientific information—whether or not it is accompanied by uncertainty—by referencing their “science model” and using non-scientific references (i.e., situations encountered in one's daily life, information received from other sources, one's own observations of the world, and one's education or professional experience). Scientific credibility is a mixture of (sometimes contradictory) considerations along these different axes. Previous studies have found that some scientists assume that communicating uncertainty will lower public credibility of science. Our results contradict this assumption for situations in which academic scientists communicate uncertainty, which is perceived as additional knowledge bringing a new perspective on certain information. People expect scientists to provide practical solutions and feel disillusionment when scientists lack straight answers. However, they accepted uncertainty as an intrinsic characteristic of science and a consequence of the limits to human beings’ capacity to understand the world. Further, the low credibility of industry scientists is further reinforced when they communicate uncertainty.     

Trust in scientific experts on obesity: implications for awareness and behavior change

Objective: To explore the relationship between public trust in scientific experts on obesity and public attention to nutrition recommendations, to investigate trust as a predictor of weight‐related behaviors, and to identify the sociodemographic characteristics associated with high and low trust in scientific experts on obesity. Research Methods and Procedures: This analysis used survey data from two sources: 1) a 2005 Harvard School of Public Health Obesity Survey (N = 2033), and 2) the 2004 General Social Survey (N = 2812). Five outcome measures were used. Three were used to explore trust as a predictor of attention and weight‐related behaviors. Two were used to identify the sociodemographic predictors of trust. Logistic regression analysis was used to model the outcome variables. Results: Trust in scientific experts was the strongest predictor of public attention to nutritional recommendations from scientific experts, but it was not directly related to weight‐related behaviors. Public attention was significantly associated with two weight‐related behaviors: tracking fruit and vegetable intake and exercise. Women and more educated individuals had significantly higher odds of trusting scientific experts. Characteristics associated with distrust in scientific experts included Hispanic race and older age (over 50). Discussion: Public health experts should work toward building trust as an important step in stemming the obesity epidemic. Further, more research is necessary to better understand the factors driving trust in scientific experts on obesity. A deeper insight in this area will certainly be of great benefit to obesity‐related risk communication and potentially lead to positive behavior change.     

Analysis of Determining Factors of the Public's Risk Acceptance Level in China

This work will characterize risk acceptance in China, based on the psychometric paradigm, and explore the determining factors that influence the risk acceptable level to the Chinese public. For this purpose, a survey was conducted including 12 hazards, 10 risk attributes (including risk acceptance), and demographic variables. First, the research attempted to explore Nanjing citizens’ average risk acceptable level for 12 hazards in China. Second, intercorrelation analysis and factor analysis of nine risk attributes were performed to obtain the suitable risk perception factors as independent variables. Three risk perception models of acceptance were constructed, which were named “Environmental risk model,” “Daily risk model,” and “Technical risk model,” that explained 59.0–69.6% of variance separately. In general, the variables of Knowledge, Benefit, and Trust were found to be significant in all models, implying that these variables are the main determining factors. However, in the environmental risk model, the variable of effect was also significant, which means the determining factors would change for different types of hazards. These results could help the Chinese government to improve the communication of risks with the public and make effective mitigation policies to improve people's rational judgment on the acceptability of risks.     

Mobile Communication in the Public Mind: Insights from Free Associations Related to Mobile Phone Base Stations

The number of people using mobile phones has dramatically increased. At the same time, many people are unsettled about the potential health effects from the electromagnetic fields generated by mobile phone base stations. Research indicates that the risks associated with base stations are perceived differently by experts, laypeople, and base station opponents. Using a free association method, we analyzed these differences in more detail. In our first study, we found no difference between experts and laypeople but a marked distinction in the associations of opponents as opposed to the first two groups. The prevalence of free associations in a large random sample from the general population was explored via correspondence analysis in the second study. People who assign high risks to mobile communication had different, more negative associations in mind (e.g., “senselessness,” “hazard”) compared to people with low risk-perception (e.g., “mast,” “acceptance”). Our research is in line with the assumption that the affect heuristic guides risk and benefit assessments, and highlights the role of affect in risk perception and communication.     

A Boomerang Effect of an All-Clear Message on Radiation Risk

Boomerang effects are changes caused by persuasive communication against the intentions of the communicator. In risk communication, boomerang effects have so far been primarily addressed and shown for warnings in fields such as alcohol, nicotine, and drug use prevention. Boomerang effects of all-clear messages on environmental risks have so far not been demonstrated. Based on this observation, this article essentially makes three points. First, the most prominent theoretical explanations for boomerang effects do not preclude all-clear messages to have this type of effect. Second, it presents an experiment that demonstrates the existence of a boomerang effect of an all-clear message on the risk from cell phone tower radiation. Respondents who were very worried about this risk before the experiment said on average that reading a short all-clear message increased their worries. Third, if this type of boomerang effect is also found for other than radiation risks, people worried about environmental risks (including those worried without a reasonable cause) would be hard to convince they need not worry. This impedes reasonable public risk communication in the long run and creates a social group of people who harbor fears and anxieties not grounded in reality, but are immune against correction.     

The Era of Management Is Over

The management paradigm fails when confronted with complex problems where there are no clearly defined objectives and a plethora of mutually contradictory approaches, each of which is plausible in a particular frame of reference. The notion of the disinterested expert cannot withstand scrutiny, and putative experts must earn public trust. Scientists must be prepared to share their advisory and decision-making roles with a variety of interested parties and participate with them on an equal footing. Received 6 September 2000; accepted 31 May 2001.     

A tool for simulating and communicating uncertainty when modelling species distributions under future climates

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Initial Risk-Based Screening of Potential Brownfield Development Sites

Brownfield redevelopment is sustainable only when it is a transparent process protective of public health. The objective of the brownfield health risk screening matrix is to provide a scientifically based, transparent process to evaluate human health risks on proposed redevelopment sites as well as a framework that can be critically evaluated by both environmentalists and the community in general. Public discussion and understanding of current health risk assessment, as well as the risks specific to each brownfield redevelopment site, are essential for an effective brownfield redevelopment program.

The Brownfields Redevelopment Program was started by the EPA in 1995 and seeks to use already contaminated sites rather than contaminate even more greenfields. Two of the biggest difficulties are making redevelopment profitable and protecting human health. Traditional human health risk assessment evaluates single chemical exposures and identifies the level below which no adverse effect will occur to the most sensitive subgroups of the population. For cancer–causing chemicals the risk must be lower than 1:1,000,000. When brownfield redevelopment sites are associated with high cost, extensive time and unmanageable uncertainty, additional greenfield sites will become contaminated and the contamination on current brownfield sites will remain un-remediated.

The citizens' advisory group addressing brownfields in a southern New York county has developed a risk matrix to evaluate the uncertainty of the available data, the toxicity of the known or suspected contaminants and the likely exposure routes for each brownfield site in the county. The matrix categorizes sites as high, medium or low risk according to exposure groups. The risk matrix complements the triad approach currently being developed by EPA to identify and manage project decision uncertainties, addresses uncertainty as well as toxicity and has the potential to reduce the cost of traditional health risk assessment at brownfield redevelopment sites.     

Street Vended Food in Developing World: Hazard Analyses

Street food vending has become an important public health issue and a great concern to everybody. This is due to widespread food borne diseases, due to the mushrooming of wayside food vendors who lack an adequate understanding of the basic food safety issues. Major sources contributing to microbial contamination are the place of preparation, utensils for cooking and serving, raw materials, time and temperature abuse of cooked foods and the personal hygiene of vendors. Various studies have identified the sources of food safety issues involved in street foods to be microorganism belonging to the genus Bacillus, Staphylococcus, Clostridium, Vibrio, Campylobacter, Listeria, Salmonella. Application of sound risk analysis policies is being advocated to provide a scientific base to the host of risk management option which India may need to explore to ensure public health and safety.     

Defining risk: Normative considerations

The public thinks about (i.e., defines) environmental human health risks in different terms than the “experts.”; And because the manner in which we conceive of risk goes a long way in determining how risk management is conceived and carried out, any definition of risk has important normative elements. I argue that environmental policy based on the public's conception of risk fails to adequately protect fundamental human rights to health and liberty, by taking undue account of certain psychological factors that enter into the public's perception of risk. A survey of some of these factors is offered in an attempt to determine their policy relevance. The traditional scientific conception of risk, although not adequate to entirely define risk policy, serves as an important anchor for the protection of these rights by focusing on the probability or number of adverse health effects.     

Critical Components of Uncertainty Communication in Life Cycle Assessments of Emerging Technologies

Because of their recognition as a comprehensive tool of environmental assessments and their increasing use by governments and industries, life cycle assessments (LCAs) are positioned to be prominent sources of mass media information on new products and technologies. The LCA studies underlying media reports are often viewed by nonexperts after the initial reporting. However, uncertainty is rife in early assessments of emerging technologies, and LCA's ability to inform environmental opinions and decisions is limited without the accompanying communication on uncertainty. Though approaches to the technical aspects of uncertainty analysis in LCA are available in the literature, those on communicating that uncertainty, in ways that are cognitively accessible to the nonexperts, are still lacking despite their highlighted importance across various disciplines. With the focus on communication, this article uses the existing literature to derive five criteria for making uncertainty communication accessible to a nonexpert audience. Then, LCAs on engineered nanomaterial (ENM) and ENM‐enabled products, as a case study of emerging technologies where uncertainties abound, are reviewed for whether they meet these five criteria. The study concludes with recommendations for communicating uncertainty in LCAs in order to enhance their role as decision‐ and public opinion–informing assessments.     

Balanced Fatty Acid Intake Benefits and Mercury Exposure Risks: An Integrated Analysis of Chinese Commercial Freshwater Fish and Potential Guidelines for Consumption

Fish-related consumption advisories have emerged based on the benefits of omega-3 fatty acids (omega-3 FA) intake and risks of Hg exposure from marine fish. However, only a few were based from freshwater fish. We integrated omega-3 FA and Hg data available from commonly eaten freshwater fish in China to provide a new perspective on consumption of these fish and also created a guide on the cost of basic omega-3 FA intake of 1750 mg/week. Results show that freshwater fish exhibited low omega-3 FA and Hg levels. The Hg bioaccumulation of functional feeding groups was significantly different (p <.05). Carnivorous species indicated relatively high Hg levels, whereas planktivorous fish species showed high omega-3 FA levels and extremely low costs for basic omega-3 FA intake. Results indicate that an advisory regarding reasonable fish consumption is necessary to maximize omega-3 FA and to minimize Hg exposure risks to fish consumers. This study provides temporary advisories and guide research for the creation of a proper dietary pattern. The advisory could reduce confusion and enforce benefit and risk communication for freshwater fish consumers. However, additional biomonitoring data in fish are needed to create more appropriate and specific freshwater fish consumption guidelines for the public.     

Evaluation of Software for Propagating Uncertainty Through Risk Assessment Models

Quantitative uncertainty analysis has become a common component of risk assessments. In risk assessment models, the most robust method for propagating uncertainty is Monte Carlo simulation. Many software packages available today offer Monte Carlo capabilities while requiring minimal learning time, computational time, and/or computer memory. This paper presents an evalu ation of six software packages in the context of risk assessment: Crystal Ball, @Risk, Analytica, Stella II, PRISM, and Susa-PC. Crystal Ball and @Risk are spreadsheet based programs; Analytica and Stella II are multi-level, influence diagram based programs designed for the construction of complex models; PRISM and Susa-PC are both public-domain programs designed for incorpo rating uncertainty and sensitivity into any model written in Fortran. Each software package was evaluated on the basis of five criteria, with each criterion having several sub-criteria. A ‘User Preferences Table’ was also developed for an additional comparison of the software packages. The evaluations were based on nine weeks of experimentation with the software packages including use of the associated user manuals and test of the software through the use of example problems. The results of these evaluations indicate that Stella II has the most extensive modeling capabilities and can handle linear differential equations. Crystal Ball has the best input scheme for entering uncertain parameters and the best reference materials. @Risk offers a slightly better standard output scheme and requires a little less learning time. Susa-PC has the most options for detailed statistical analysis of the results, such as multiple options for a sensitivity analysis and sophisticated options for inputting correlations. Analytica is a versatile, menu- and graphics-driven package, while PRISM is a more specialized and less user friendly program. When choosing between software packages for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, the choice largely depends on the specifics of the problem being modeled. However, for risk assessment problems that can be implemented on a spreadsheet, Crystal Ball is recommended because it offers the best input options, a good output scheme, adequate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, superior reference materials, and an intuitive spreadsheet basis while requiring very little memory.     

An Ecological Risk Assessment of Phenol in the Aquatic Environment

A probabilistic ecological risk assessment of phenol was undertaken to determine the risks posed to biota as a result of phenol release to the Canadian environment. A three-tiered approach was used to estimate risks, with progressively more realistic assumptions being applied at each tier. In Canada, the major sources of phenol are municipal wastewater treatment plants, pulp, paper and wood products mills, steel and metal products facilities and refineries. Thus, the highest exposures will occur in receiving waters near these point sources, primarily due to the short half-life of phenol in the aquatic environment. Sensitive aquatic organisms include salmonids (e.g., rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss) and amphibians (e.g., leopard frog Rana pipiens). The results of the risk assessment indicate that species are exposed to elevated levels of phenol near point sources, but these levels represent only a minor risk to aquatic biota.     

Problems of public participation in the Ramsar CEPA programme at the Tana Delta,Kenya

This research examines the problems of public participation in conserving a Ramsar site at the Tana Delta in southeastern Kenya. Given no participation of the public in government initiatives so far, we attempted to find out what had prevented local people from cooperating with responsible government bodies. Using empirical evidence that we obtained from fieldworks, questionnaire surveys, and workshops, we found that the low participation was not mainly due to local people’s unwillingness to conserve natural resources. Instead, we found that they were strongly interested in wetland resources conservation as long as their customary rights to governing resources are sufficiently recognized. We also documented how these local people managed their resources. The Kenya Wildlife Service and the National Museum of Kenya are the main government bodies to promote public participation, but we found that these agencies had not done effective communication works among local people. Our survey then clarified what sources of information can be most effective in communicating with local people in the Tana Delta. Finally, we discuss how the problems of public participation can be solved or reduced.     

新疆焉耆盆地辣椒地土壤重金属污染及生态风险预警

从新疆加工辣椒主产地(焉耆盆地)采集105个辣椒地典型土壤样品,测定其中As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Mn、Ni、Pb和Zn等8种重金属元素的含量。采用污染负荷指数(Pollution load index,PLI)、潜在生态风险指数(Potential ecological risk index,RI)和生态风险预警指数(Ecological risk warning index,I_(ER))对辣椒地土壤重金属污染及生态风险进行评价。结果表明:(1)焉耆盆地辣椒地土壤Cd、Cr、Ni、Pb和Zn含量的平均值分别超出新疆灌耕土背景值的1.65、1.40、1.32、3.21、6.42倍。辣椒地土壤Pb和Zn呈现重度污染,Cd、Cr和Ni轻度污染,As、Mn和Cu无污染。(2)土壤PLI平均值为1.40,呈现轻度污染。各重金属元素单项生态风险指数从大到小依次为:Cd、Ni、As、Cu、Pb、Cr、Zn。土壤RI平均值为18.40,属于轻微生态风险态势,IER平均值为-4.78,属于无警态势;博湖县辣椒地污染水平、潜在生态风险程度与生态风险预警等级最高,焉耆县污染水平、潜在生态风险程度与生态风险预警等级最低。(3)辣椒地土壤As、Cd、Pb与Zn主要受到人类活动的影响,Cr、Cu、Mn和Ni主要受到土壤地球化学作用的控制。Cd是焉耆盆地辣椒地生态风险等级最高的重金属元素,研究区农业生产过程中要防范Cd的污染风险。     

Review: Risk assessment implications of variation in susceptibility to perchloroethylene due to genetic diversity,ethnicity, age,gender, diet and pharmaceuticals

Current cancer risk assessments do not adequately consider impacts of human inter-individual variability on susceptibility to environmental pollutants like perchloroethylene (PCE). PCE is metabolized through both oxidative and glutathione (GSH) conjugation pathways. Toxicity criteria derived using both pathways are 23-fold more stringent than those calculated using only oxidative metabolism. While toxicokinetic modeling of PCE metabolism predicted very high variability through the GSH conjugation pathway, it is unclear if the range in estimates is due to human variability or uncertainty. Thus, the variation in the GSH conjugation pathway of PCE metabolism due to genetics, ethnicity, age, gender, diet, and pharmaceutical co-exposures is examined. Genetic polymorphisms were found at several loci including, GSTT1, GSTM1, CCBL1, AGXT2, NAT8, ACY3, MRP2, OAT1/3, FMO3, and CYP3A that code for enzymes/transporters in the GSH conjugation pathway. Genetic diversity in GSTT1, GSTM1, and CCBL1 between ethnic populations, as well as age, gender, diet, and pharmaceutical co-exposures influences toxic and mutagenic metabolites produced through this pathway. Given this diversity, large differences in PCE metabolism through the GSH conjugation pathway are expected. To be health protective for diverse ethnic populations and lifestyles, both the oxidative and GSH conjugation pathways need to be considered in developing PCE toxicity criteria.     

Comparison Between Radiological and Chemical Health Risks Assessments: The Nord-Cotentin Study

In 1997, the French Ministries of the Environment and Health commissioned a detailed radioecological analysis of the Nord-Cotentin region in response to public concern about radiological risks associated with local nuclear facilities. This work was entrusted to the Groupe Radioécologie Nord-Cotentin (GRNC), a working group of experts from various origins (industrial facilities operators, public institutions, monitoring agencies, public interest and citizens groups, foreign experts). An epidemiology investigation in 1995 had reported an excess of two radiation-induced leukemia cases in an area near a nuclear reprocessing plant, a finding that attracted great interest in France, and which stimulated the need for further investigation. After the publication of its report in 1999, the GRNC was again commissioned to perform, inter alia, a corresponding assessment on the chemical releases of the local nuclear facilities. This second stage is now achieved and has revealed important similarities as well as some important differences between radiological and chemical risk assessments when applied to the specific case of the Nord-Cotentin nuclear facilities. Due to the considerable amount of work and results of the GRNC, the purpose for this article is to briefly describe the main developments of the risk assessment methodology followed by the GRNC in both cases, to detail some of the main results and to identify and explain, at each step, the similarities and the differences. The whole technical documents that support these works are available on the Internet at ?http://www.irsn.fr/nord-cotentin/?.     

我国省级卫生应急人员风险评估认知现状评价

?????? 目的 了解我国省级卫生应急人员对突发公共卫生事件风险评估的认知状况。方法 采用问卷调查的方法,对全国31个省（市、自治区）承担突发公共卫生事件应急处置的省级卫生应急工作人员进行调查,共计调查415名。结果 应急人员普遍意识到突发公共卫生事件信息监测的重要性,但对监测信息来源认知较局限;对风险评估概念熟悉程度较低,且不同机构之间的认知存在一定差异;对风险评估工作的认知也存在分歧,认知水平亟待进一步提高。结论 应完善信息获取途径、加强风险评估的宣传与培训、建立健全风险评估制度。