Ten Years of the Relative Risk Model and Regional Scale Ecological Risk Assessment

It has been 10 years since the publication of the relative risk model (RRM) for regional scale ecological risk assessment. The approach has since been used successfully for a variety of freshwater, marine, and terrestrial environments in North America, South America, and Australia. During this period the types of stressors have been expanded to include more than contaminants. Invasive species, habitat loss, stream alteration and blockage, temperature, change in land use, and climate have been incorporated into the assessments. Major developments in the RRM have included the extensive use of geographical information systems, uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo techniques, and its application to retrospective assessments to determine causation. The future uses of the RRM include assessments for forestry and conservation management, an increasing use in invasive species evaluation, and in sustainability. Developments in risk communication, the use of Bayesian approaches, and in uncertainty analyses are on the horizon.     

Geographic range determinants of two commercially important marine molluscs

Aim We modelled the spatial abundance patterns of two abalone species (Haliotis rubra Donovan 1808 and H. laevigata Leach 1814) inhabiting inshore rocky reefs to better understand the importance of current sea surface temperature (SST) (among other predictors) and, ultimately, the effect of future climate change, on marine molluscs. Location Southern Australia. Methods We used an ensemble species distribution modelling approach that combined likelihood‐based generalized linear models and boosted regression trees. For each modelling technique, a two‐step procedure was used to predict: (1) the current probability of presence, followed by (2) current abundance conditional on presence. The resulting models were validated using an independent, spatially explicit dataset of abalone abundance patterns in Victoria. Results For both species, the presence of reef was the main driver of abalone occurrence, while SST was the main driver of spatial abundance patterns. Predictive maps at c. 1‐km resolution showed maximal abundance on shallow coastal reefs characterized by mild winter SSTs for both species. Main conclusions Sea surface temperature was a major driver of abundance patterns for both abalone species, and the resulting ensemble models were used to build fine‐resolution predictive range maps (c. 1 km) that incorporate measures of habitat suitability and quality in support of resource management. By integrating this output with structured spatial population models, a more robust understanding of the potential impacts of threatening human processes such as climate change can be established.     

A systematic approach for prioritizing multiple management actions for invasive species

The successful management and eradication of invasive species is often constrained by insufficient or inconsistent funding. Consequently, managers are usually forced to select a subset of infested areas to manage. Further, managers may be unaware of the most effective methods for identifying priority areas and so are unable to maximize the effectiveness of their limited resources. To address these issues, we present a spatially explicit decision method that can be used to identify actions to manage invasive species while minimizing costs and the likelihood of reinvasion. We apply the method to a real-world management scenario, aimed at managing an invasive aquatic macrophyte, olive hymenachne (Hymenachne amplexicaulis), which is one of the most threatening invasives in tropical Australia, affecting water quality, freshwater biodiversity, and fisheries.     

The impact of agro‐pastoral abandonment on the Rock Partridge Alectoris graeca in the Apennines

Human depopulation of rural mountain areas and the consequent abandonment of traditional land management are among the greatest driving forces behind changes in mountain ecosystems in Western Europe. Tree and shrub encroachment lead to an increase in landscape matrix uniformity and habitat fragmentation. For some animal species, this represents an unusual case of habitat loss caused by secondary succession. The animal species associated with this agro‐pastoral habitat may suffer from decreased connectivity as a consequence. The Rock Partridge Alectoris graeca is a species endemic to European mountains that represents a model for investigating the impact of habitat loss. We compared the habitat suitability of the Apennine Rock Partridge prior to abandonment of traditional agro‐pastoral activities by aerial photography with the current landscape, in order to investigate the effect of secondary succession on the distribution and viability of the species. We assessed the historical distribution (c. 1900–1950) by quantifying anecdotal evidence from interviews, and the current distribution (2005) from survey data. We applied ecological niche factor analysis and connectivity approaches to evaluate change in habitat suitability over this time scale. Moreover, to quantify landscape connectivity, we evaluated the relative importance of each patch in the two periods. Results indicated that to maintain a viable population in the Apennines, the species requires an ensemble of ecological conditions considerably different from the current situation. We observed a drastic decrease in connectivity as a result of a reduction in numbers and size of high suitability patches. This is most probably the primary cause of the current decline of the Rock Partridge population in the Apennines.     

Host specificity of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ischnodemus variegatus</Emphasis>, an herbivore of West Indian marsh grass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Hymenachne amplexicaulis</Emphasis>)

West Indian marsh grass, Hymenachne amplexicaulis Rudge (Nees) (Poaceae), is an emergent wetland plant that is native to South and Central America as well as portions of the Caribbean, but is considered invasive in Florida USA. The neotropical bug, Ischnodemus variegatus (Signoret) (Hemiptera: Lygaeoidea: Blissidae) was observed feeding on H. amplexicaulis in Florida in 2000. To assess whether this insect could be considered as a specialist biological control agent or potential threat to native and cultivated grasses, the host specificity of I. variegatus was studied under laboratory and field conditions. Developmental host range was examined on 57 plant species across seven plant families. Complete development was obtained on H. amplexicaulis (23.4% survivorship), Paspalum repens (0.4%), Panicum anceps (2.2%) and Thalia geniculata (0.3%). Adults survived 1.6 times longer and laid 6.6 times more eggs on H. amplexicaulis than the other species. Oviposition on suboptimal host species was positively related to I. variegatus density under multiple choice conditions. Results from field experiments indicated that H. amplexicaulis had higher densities of I. variegatus than other species. Spill-over to suboptimal hosts occurred in an area where H. amplexicaulis was growing in poor conditions and there was a high density of I. variegatus. Thus, laboratory and field studies demonstrate that I. variegatus had higher performance on H. amplexicaulis compared to any other host, and that suboptimal hosts could be colonized temporarily. Handling Editor: John Scott. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Effects of local and landscape factors on the abundance of an endangered multivoltine butterfly at riverbanks

Plebejus argyrognomon is one of the grassland‐dwelling butterflies undergoing rapid decline in recent decades. Grassland habitats for butterflies are generally threatened by fragmentation and invasive species, hence are among the most vulnerable ecosystems. We studied the seasonal abundance of P. argyrognomon at habitat patches along the banks of the Kinugawa River in eastern Japan, to identify environmental factors suitable for population persistence of this species, including habitat patch connectivity. Results showed that the patch's host plant cover had a positive effect on abundance in all three seasons, while the shading of the host plants by surrounding non‐host plants and nearby forested area showed negative effects. Additionally, habitat patch connectivity and nectar richness could be considered as positive factors in autumn and summer, respectively. Analysis of habitat connectivity also showed that the Kinugawa River did not appear to act as a dispersal barrier for P. argyrognomon. Our findings emphasize the importance of understanding environmental factors that may vary among seasons, and such understanding could contribute to habitat management of multivoltine butterflies in fragmented landscapes.     

Genetic inference as a method for modelling occurrence: A viable alternative to visual surveys

Management and conservation require a comprehensive understanding of species distributions and habitat requirements. Reliable species occurrence data are critical in the face of climate change and other anthropogenic activity, but are often difficult to obtain, particularly for wide ranging species. This directly affects ecological models of occurrence and habitat suitability and, in turn, conservation and management decisions. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to identify ecological determinants of occurrence for four macropod species (across a region of tropical northern Australia) using a non‐invasive genetic scat approach with and without additional observation records from visual surveys. We show that genetically derived occurrence data, alone, can be used to develop informative ecological models that describe the inter‐specific habitat requirements of macropods. Furthermore, we show that genetic scat surveys of macropods are cheaper and less time consuming to conduct, and tend to provide more occurrence records (and less false absences) than visual surveys. We conclude that indirect surveys using molecular approaches have an important role to play in modelling species' occurrence, and developing future management practices and guidelines to aid species conservation.     

Modeling ecological minimum requirements for distribution of greater sage‐grouse leks: implications for population connectivity across their western range,U.S.A

Greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (Bonaparte) currently occupy approximately half of their historical distribution across western North America. Sage‐grouse are a candidate for endangered species listing due to habitat and population fragmentation coupled with inadequate regulation to control development in critical areas. Conservation planning would benefit from accurate maps delineating required habitats and movement corridors. However, developing a species distribution model that incorporates the diversity of habitats used by sage‐grouse across their widespread distribution has statistical and logistical challenges. We first identified the ecological minimums limiting sage‐grouse, mapped similarity to the multivariate set of minimums, and delineated connectivity across a 920,000 km² region. We partitioned a Mahalanobis D² model of habitat use into k separate additive components each representing independent combinations of species–habitat relationships to identify the ecological minimums required by sage‐grouse. We constructed the model from abiotic, land cover, and anthropogenic variables measured at leks (breeding) and surrounding areas within 5 km. We evaluated model partitions using a random subset of leks and historic locations and selected D² (k = 10) for mapping a habitat similarity index (HSI). Finally, we delineated connectivity by converting the mapped HSI to a resistance surface. Sage‐grouse required sagebrush‐dominated landscapes containing minimal levels of human land use. Sage‐grouse used relatively arid regions characterized by shallow slopes, even terrain, and low amounts of forest, grassland, and agriculture in the surrounding landscape. Most populations were interconnected although several outlying populations were isolated because of distance or lack of habitat corridors for exchange. Land management agencies currently are revising land‐use plans and designating critical habitat to conserve sage‐grouse and avoid endangered species listing. Our results identifying attributes important for delineating habitats or modeling connectivity will facilitate conservation and management of landscapes important for supporting current and future sage‐grouse populations.     

Modeling the distribution of a wide‐ranging invasive species using the sampling efforts of expert and citizen scientists

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Influence of dams and habitat condition on the distribution of redhorse (Moxostoma) species in the Grand River watershed, Ontario

Redhorse, Moxostoma spp., are considered to be negatively affected by dams although this assertion is untested for Canadian populations. One hundred and fifty-one sites in the Grand River watershed were sampled to identify factors influencing the distribution of redhorse species. Individual species of redhorse were captured from 3 to 32% of sites. The most widespread species were golden redhorse, M. erythrurum (30%) and greater redhorse, M. valenciennesi (32%), while river redhorse, M. carinatum, was only found along the lower Grand River. Redhorse were absent from the highly fragmented Speed River sub-watershed and upper reaches of the Conestogo River and the Grand River. Redhorse species richness was positively correlated to river fragment size and upstream drainage area. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to evaluate the influence of river fragment length, connectivity and habitat on species distribution. Principal component analysis reduced habitat data to three axes representing: channel structure, substrate, and pool, riffle and run habitats (PC1); gradient and drainage area (PC2); and cover (PC3). GAMs indicate that PC2 was important for predicting black redhorse and greater redhorse site occupancy and PC1 was important for golden redhorse. River fragment length was important for predicting site occupancy for shorthead redhorse, but not other species.     

Cross‐scale effects of structural and functional connectivity in pond networks on amphibian distribution in agricultural landscapes

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Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions

Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species’ entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species’ entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.     

Habitat connectivity, more than species’ biology, influences genetic differentiation in a habitat specialist, the short-eared rock-wallaby (Petrogale brachyotis)

It is difficult to assess the relative influence of anthropogenic processes (e.g., habitat fragmentation) versus species’ biology on the level of genetic differentiation among populations when species are restricted in their distribution to fragmented habitats. This issue is particularly problematic for Australian rock-wallabies (Petrogale sp.), where most previous studies have examined threatened species in anthropogenically fragmented habitats. The short-eared rock-wallaby (Petrogale brachyotis) provides an opportunity to assess natural population structure and gene flow in relatively continuous habitat across north-western Australia. This region has reported widespread declines in small-to-medium sized mammals, making data regarding the influence of habitat connectivity on genetic diversity important for broad-scale management. Using non-invasive and standard methods, 12 microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA were compared to examine patterns of population structure and dispersal among populations of P. brachyotis in the Kimberley, Western Australia. Low genetic differentiation was detected between populations separated by up to 67?km. The inferred genetic connectivity of these populations suggests that in suitable habitat P. brachyotis can potentially disperse far greater distances than previously reported for rock-wallabies in more fragmented habitat. Like other Petrogale species male-biased dispersal was detected. These findings suggest that a complete understanding of population biology may not be achieved solely by the study of fragmented populations in disturbed environments and that management strategies may need to draw on studies of populations (or related species) in undisturbed areas of contiguous habitat.     

Understanding niche shifts: using current and historical data to model the invasive redlegged earth mite,Halotydeus destructor

Aim Niche conservatism is key to understanding species responses to environmental stress such as climate change or arriving in new geographical space such as biological invasion. Halotydeus destructor is an important agricultural pest in Australia and has been the focus of extensive surveys that suggest this species has undergone a niche shift to expand its invasive range inland to hotter and drier environments. We employ modern correlative modelling methods to examine niche conservatism in H. destructor and highlight ecological differences between historical and current distributions. Location Australia and South Africa. Methods We compile comprehensive distribution data sets for H. destructor, representing the native range in South Africa, its invasive range in Australia in the 1960s (40 yr post‐introduction) and its current range in Australia. Using MAXENT, we build correlative models and reciprocally project them between South Africa and Australia and investigate range expansion with models constructed for historical and current data sets. We use several recently developed model exploration tools to examine the climate similarity between native and invasive ranges and subsequently examine climatic variables that limit distributions. Results The invasive niche of H. destructor in Australia transgresses the native niche in South Africa, and the species has expanded in Australia beyond what is predicted from the native distribution. Our models support the notion that H. destructor has undergone a more recent range shift into hotter and drier inland areas of Australia since establishing a stable distribution in the 1960s. Main conclusions Our use of historical and current data highlights that invasion is an ongoing dynamic process and demonstrates that once a species has reached an established range, it may still expand at a later stage. We also show that model exploration tools help understand factors influencing the range of invasive species. The models generate hypotheses about adaptive shifts in H. destructor.     

Application of common predictive habitat techniques for post-border weed risk management

Weed risk assessment has become an accepted methodology for examining the likelihood and consequence of a plant species becoming invasive outside of its native range. Weed risk assessment draws upon biological and ecological information to estimate the likelihood and magnitude of the threats posed by introducing non-indigenous plants. In geographical terms, this has traditionally been understood as within a new country following importation of plant material. However, recent risk assessment development has focused more specifically on intracountry risk posed by already-present invasive plants and is referred to as post-border weed risk management. This form of assessment calls for fine-scale predictions of invasive species habitat suitability. This study applies some of the more popular and widely available habitat prediction models that represent a variety of different statistical approaches (linear regression, logistic regression, Bayesian probability, Classification and Regression Trees, Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production) to a single invasive plant, the vertebrate-dispersed, fleshy fruited European olive ( Olea europaea L.) in southern Australia. The relationships between the dependant ( O. europaea distribution) and independent (soil and climate) variables are used in the models to produce predictive maps for each model. Accuracy was calculated for each model output as well as a combined surface to examine whether recent calls for ensemble modelling of distributions produces improved predictions. Overall, the combined prediction demonstrated superior accuracy compared to any individual model outputs. The combined outputs can be likened to mapped gradations of predicted habitat suitability. The type of output produced in this study should form a critical component of post-border weed risk management but more importantly, the methodology will add to this important discipline.     

Global patterns of fragmentation and connectivity of mammalian carnivore habitat

Although mammalian carnivores are vulnerable to habitat fragmentation and require landscape connectivity, their global patterns of fragmentation and connectivity have not been examined. We use recently developed high-resolution habitat suitability models to conduct comparative analyses and to identify global hotspots of fragmentation and connectivity for the world's terrestrial carnivores. Species with less fragmentation (i.e. more interior high-quality habitat) had larger geographical ranges, a greater proportion of habitat within their range, greater habitat connectivity and a lower risk of extinction. Species with higher connectivity (i.e. less habitat isolation) also had a greater proportion of high-quality habitat, but had smaller, not larger, ranges, probably reflecting shorter distances between habitat patches for species with restricted distributions; such species were also more threatened, as would be expected given the negative relationship between range size and extinction risk. Fragmentation and connectivity did not differ among Carnivora families, and body mass was associated with connectivity but not fragmentation. On average, only 54.3 per cent of a species' geographical range comprised high-quality habitat, and more troubling, only 5.2 per cent of the range comprised such habitat within protected areas. Identification of global hotspots of fragmentation and connectivity will help guide strategic priorities for carnivore conservation.     

Potential distribution of Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang and its predicted responses to climate change based on a comprehensive habitat suitability model

Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang is a rare and endangered traditional Chinese medicinal plant. In this research, we built a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model to analyze the potential suitable habitat distribution of this species in the present and future in China. First, using nine different algorithms, we built an ensemble model to explore the possible impacts of climate change on the habitat distribution of this species. Then, based on this model, we built a CHS model to further identify the distribution characteristics of N. incisum‐suitable habitats in three time periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s) while considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. The results indicated that the current suitable habitat for N. incisum covers approximately 83.76 × 10³ km², and these locations were concentrated in the Tibet Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, and Sichuan Province. In the future, the areas of suitable habitat for N. incisum would significantly decrease and would be 69.53 × 10³ km² and 60.21 × 10³ km² in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. However, the area of marginally suitable habitat would remain relatively stable. This study provides a more reliable and comprehensive method for modelling the current and future distributions of N. incisum, and it provides valuable insights for highlighting priority areas for medicinal plant conservation and resource utilization.     

Anthropogenic impact on habitat connectivity: A multidimensional human footprint index evaluated in a highly biodiverse landscape of Mexico

Evaluating the cumulative effects of the human footprint on landscape connectivity is crucial for implementing policies for the appropriate management and conservation of landscapes. We present an adjusted multidimensional spatial human footprint index (SHFI) to analyze the effects of landscape transformation on the remnant habitat connectivity for 40 terrestrial mammal species representative of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic System in Michoacán (TMVS_Mich), in western central Mexico. We adjusted the SHFI by adding fragmentation and habitat loss to its original three components: land use intensity, time of human landscape intervention, and biophysical vulnerability. The adjusted SHFI was applied to four scenarios: one grouping all species and three grouping several species by habitat spatial requirements. Using the SHFI as a dispersal resistance surface and applying a circuit theory based approach, we analyzed the effects of cumulative human impact on habitat connectivity in the different scenarios. For evaluating the relationship between habitat loss and connectivity, we applied graph theory-based equivalent connected area (ECA) index. Results show over 60% of the TMVS_Mich has high SHFI values, considerably lowering current flow for all species. Nevertheless, the effect on connectivity of human impact is higher for species with limited dispersal capacity (100–500 m). Our approach provides a new form of evaluating human impact on habitat connectivity that can be applied to different scales and landscapes. Furthermore, the approach is useful for guiding discussions and implementing future biodiversity conservation initiatives that promote landscape connectivity as an adaptive strategy for climate change.     

Macroinvertebrate conservation in river ecosystems: Challenges,restoration strategies,and integrated management approaches

River ecosystems face growing threats from human-induced stressors, resulting in habitat degradation and biodiversity loss. Crucial to these ecosystems, macroinvertebrates maintain river health and functioning. In this review, we examine the challenges confronting macroinvertebrates, explore restoration strategies and management approaches, and shed light on knowledge gaps and future research directions. Habitat degradation, water pollution, climate change, and invasive species are discussed as key challenges. Various restoration strategies, such as in-stream habitat restoration, flow regime restoration, riparian zone restoration, and connectivity restoration, are evaluated for macroinvertebrate conservation. Integrated catchment management, adaptive management, community-based management, monitoring, and policy integration are highlighted as essential management approaches, and knowledge gaps in long-term monitoring, innovative restoration techniques, climate change resilience, and policy incorporation are identified as areas calling for further research. Ultimately, a proactive, adaptable, and cooperative approach to river management will ensure macroinvertebrate conservation and sustainable river ecosystems.     

Climate change increases risk of plant invasion in the Eastern United States

Invasive plant species threaten native ecosystems, natural resources, and managed lands worldwide. Climate change may increase risk from invasive plant species as favorable climate conditions allow invaders to expand into new ranges. Here, we use bioclimatic envelope modeling to assess current climatic habitat, or lands climatically suitable for invasion, for three of the most dominant and aggressive invasive plants in the southeast United States: kudzu (Pueraria lobata), privet (Ligustrum sinense; L. vulgare), and cogongrass (Imperata cylindrica). We define climatic habitat using both the Maxent and Mahalanobis distance methodologies, and we define the best climatic predictors based on variables that best ‘constrain’ species distributions and variables that ‘release’ the most land area if excluded. We then use an ensemble of 12 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to project changes in climatic habitat for the three invasive species by 2100. The combined methodologies, predictors, and models produce a robust assessment of invasion risk inclusive of many of the approaches typically used individually to assess climate change impacts. Current invasion risk is widespread in southeastern states for all three species, although cogongrass invasion risk is more restricted to the Gulf Coast. Climate change is likely to enable all three species to greatly expand their ranges. Risk from privet and kudzu expands north into Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and New England states by 2100. Risk from cogongrass expands as far north as Kentucky and Virginia. Heightened surveillance and prompt eradication of small pockets of invasion in northern states should be a management priority.