The role of human factor in maritime environment risk assessment: A practical application on Ballast Water Treatment (BWT) system in ship

The role of human factor plays a critical role in the safe and clean operation of maritime industry. Human error prediction can be beneficial to assess risk in maritime industry since shipping activities can pose potential hazards to human life and maritime ecology. The aim of this paper is to propose a risk assessment tool by considering the role of human factor. Hence, the desired safety control level in maritime transportation activities can be ascertained. In the proposed approach, a Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) extended with fuzzy logic is used to calculate human error probability (HEP). Severity of consequences are adopted in the proposed approach to assess risk. The quantitative risk assessment approach under fuzzy SLIM methodology will be applied to a very specific case on-board ship: Ballast Water Treatment (BWT) system. In order to improve consistency of research and minimize subjectivity of experts' judgments, the paper adopts the dominance factor which is used to adjust the impact level of experts' judgments in the aggregation stage of the methodology. The paper aims at not only highlighting the importance of human factor in maritime risk assessment but also enhancing safety control level and minimizing potential environmental impacts to marine ecology.     

Risk Assessment and Safety Evaluation Using Probabilistic Fault Tree Analysis

Risk assessment is an essential prelude to the development of accident prevention strategies in any chemical or petrochemical industry. Many techniques and methodologies such as HAZOP, failure mode effect analysis, fault tree analysis, preliminary hazard analysis, quantitative risk assessment and probabilistic safety analysis are available to conduct qualitative, quantitative, and probabilistic risk assessment. However, these methodologies are limited by: extensive data requirements, the length of study, results are not directly interpretable for decision making, simulation is often difficult, and they are applicable only at the operation or late design stage. Khan et al. (2001a) recently proposed a detailed methodology for risk assessment and safety evaluation. This methodology is simple, yet it is effective in safety and design-related decision making, and it has been applied successfully to many case studies. It is named SCAP, where S stands for safety, C and A stand for credible accident respectively, and P stands for probabilistic fault tree analysis. This paper recapitulates the SCAP methodology and demonstrates its application to a petrochemical plant.     

Microbial aerosol generation during laboratory accidents and subsequent risk assessment

AIM: To quantify microbial aerosols generated by a series of laboratory accidents and to use these data in risk assessment. METHODS AND RESULTS: A series of laboratory accident scenarios have been devised and the microbial aerosol generated by them has been measured using a range of microbial air samplers. The accident scenarios generating the highest aerosol concentrations were, dropping a fungal plate, dropping a large bottle, centrifuge rotor leaks and a blocked syringe filter. Many of these accidents generated low particle size aerosols, which would be inhaled into the lungs of any exposed laboratory staff. Spray factors (SFs) have been calculated using the results of these experiments as an indicator of the potential for accidents to generate microbial aerosols. Model risk assessments have been described using the SF data. CONCLUSIONS: Quantitative risk assessment of laboratory accidents can provide data that can aid the design of containment laboratories and the response to laboratory accidents. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: A methodology has been described and supporting data provided to allow microbiological safety officers to carry out quantitative risk assessment of laboratory accidents.     

A hybrid risk-based approach for maritime applications: The case of ballast tank maintenance

Risk assessment is vital for cost-effective ship management in maritime industry since numerous maritime activities pose potential hazards according to the human causalities. Therefore, safety practitioners attempt to offer proactive approaches to mitigate risk as much as possible. In this context, this article presents a hybrid risk-based approach for maritime industry by adopting Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) with fuzzy VIKOR (FVIKOR) methods under Fine-Kinney approach. To illustrate the hybrid risk-based approach, ballast tank maintenance process is handled since there are various hazards causing fatalities, severe injuries, and illness during ballast tank maintenance procedure than any other type of shipboard work. An extensive risk analysis is performed to enhance environment safety and operational reliability in maritime industry. Besides its theoretical contribution, the outcomes of the paper contribute to improve overall safety level of ship by considering potential hazards in risk management.     

A Comparative Analysis of Accident Risks in Fossil,Hydro, and Nuclear Energy Chains

This study presents a comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the energy sector, based on the historical experience of fossil (coal, oil, natural gas, and LPG [Liquefied Petroleum Gas]) and hydro chains contained in the comprehensive Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD), as well as Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for the nuclear chain. Full energy chains were considered because accidents can take place at every stage of the chain. Comparative analyses for the years 1969–2000 included a total of 1870 severe (≥ 5 fatalities) accidents, amounting to 81,258 fatalities. Although 79.1% of all accidents and 88.9% of associated fatalities occurred in less developed, non-OECD countries, industrialized OECD countries dominated insured losses (78.0%), reflecting their substantially higher insurance density and stricter safety regulations. Aggregated indicators and frequency-consequence (F-N) curves showed that energy-related accident risks in non-OECD countries are distinctly higher than in OECD countries. Hydropower in non-OECD countries and upstream stages within fossil energy chains are most accident-prone. Expected fatality rates are lowest for Western hydropower and nuclear power plants; however, the maximum credible consequences can be very large. Total economic damages due to severe accidents are substantial, but small when compared with natural disasters. Similarly, external costs associated with severe accidents are generally much smaller than monetized damages caused by air pollution.     

椰子叶螨Aceria(Eriophyes)guerreronis对我国椰子产业的风险性分析

[目的]明确刺吸式害虫椰子叶螨对我国椰子产业的风险,为该虫的检验检疫和应急防控提供参考.[方法]从椰子叶螨的国内外发生现状、潜在危害性、受害作物的经济重要性、定殖扩散的可能性以及风险管理的难度等方面,对椰子叶螨危害我国椰子产业的风险性进行定性和定量评估.[结果]椰子叶螨个体较小、传播方式多样、检疫和灭除难度较大,根据有...     

A combined DEMATEL and grey system theory approach for analyzing occupational risks: A case study in Turkish shipbuilding industry

The shipbuilding industry is known as heavy industry because of its high-risk work activities. Therefore, in order to prevent fatal occupational accidents in the shipbuilding industry, the processes of defining hazards, evaluating risks, taking action to eliminate or reduce risks are important issues in risk assessment. This article presents a novel occupational risk-assessment approach, which can help managers of shipbuilding make proper precautions strategies for accidents, to evaluate shipyard Critical Risk Factors and risky shipyard processes/work units. Thus, DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and Grey system theory approaches are integrated to develop a systematic risk-assessment framework for the shipbuilding industry. This approach was applied to a real case study in a Turkish shipyard. The performance evaluation results have indicated that the combined approach can provide satisfactory risk assessment for occupational risk causes and relevant improvement strategies to prevent accidents. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted on the results to ensure the reliability of solutions. Even though a novel decision support and evaluation approach on risk implementation is introduced for shipbuilding, limitations and concerns are areas for further research opportunities. Further, a sensitivity analysis of results, managerial implications, conclusions, limitations and future research opportunities are provided.     

After Fukushima: managing the consequences of a radiological release

Even amidst the devastation following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan that killed more than 20,000 people, it was the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant that led the country's prime minister, Naoto Kan, to fear for "the very existence of the Japanese nation." While accidents that result in mass radiological releases have been rare throughout the operating histories of existing nuclear power plants, the growing number of plants worldwide increases the likelihood that such releases will occur again in the future. Nuclear power is an important source of energy in the U.S. and will be for the foreseeable future. Accidents far smaller in scale than the one in Fukushima could have major societal consequences. Given the extensive, ongoing Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and industry assessment of nuclear power plant safety and preparedness issues, the Center for Biosecurity of UPMC focused on offsite policies and plans intended to reduce radiation exposure to the public in the aftermath of an accident. This report provides an assessment of Japan's efforts at nuclear consequence management; identifies concerns with current U.S. policies and practices for "outside the fence" management of such an event in the U.S.; and makes recommendations for steps that can be taken to strengthen U.S. government, industry, and community response to large-scale accidents at nuclear power plants.     

Actual and perceived collision risk for bird strikes at Namibian airports

At Namibia’s two major airports, Hosea Kutako International and Eros (domestic), 117 bird strike collision incidents were recorded between 2006 and 2010. A risk assessment, which included a proposed risk weighting methodology, was conducted at Hosea Kutako and Eros airports, which estimated the probability of an accident/collision as well as the consequence of such a collision. The assessment included surveys of bird occurrence frequencies as well as pilot interviews. The results of the risk assessments were compared with actual bird strike incidences for each species, frequency of occurrence of birds and pilot perceptions of species risk, in order to find whether risk assessment and pilot perception are reliable measures of potential bird strike incidence. White-backed Vulture Gyps africanus and Helmeted Guineafowl Numida meleagris were the highest risk species at both airports. They were also, after Crowned Lapwing Vanellus coronatus, the species most often observed by pilots. Bird strike records showed that Crowned Lapwing and Helmeted Guineafowl were also the most frequently struck birds at both airports. The study illustrates how combining risk assessment, pilot perception and bird strike history can benefit bird strike minimisation plans at airports through the rapid identification of priority bird species.     

Trends in Risk Assessment of Chemicals in the European Union

Current legislation in the European Union (EU) requires a risk assessment for industrial chemicals. The underlying procedures and paradigms of such EU risk assessment for new and existing chemicals are explained. The risk assessment is performed according to a harmonised methodology, laid down in the Technical Guidance Documents (TGD). Important new, technical risk assessment aspects covered in a recent revision round of the TGD are highlighted. The most prominent change in the environmental TGD part is the addition of the marine risk assessment, including a Persistent Bioaccumulation and Toxicity (PBT) assessment. In the human health part a significant change is the new data requirement for reproductive toxicity. The performance of both the risk assessment and the risk reduction phase of EU existing chemicals have been evaluated. An important conclusion was that our a priori knowledge on possible risks of chemicals is poor. The European Commission has recently launched a proposal (REACH) for drastically changing the risk management process of industrial chemicals in the EU. Major changes are a shift in responsibility from authorities to industry (including downstream users) for the safe use of chemicals, an acceleration of data collection for ‘non-assessed’ chemicals, and an authorization step for substances of very high concern.     

Which Effect Measure Should Be Used for Impact Assessment in a New Population Context?

One characteristic feature in impact assessment based on epidemiologic studies is the transfer of an exposure-response association into a new population context. The consequences of basing this estimation procedure either on relative effect measures (e.g., relative risks) or on measures on the difference scale (e.g., excess rate) were exemplary illustrated with two air pollution studies which quantified the association between lung cancer and PM₁₀ in cohorts with varying lung cancer incidence due to different smoking habits. This example showed that the type of measure chosen may markedly influence the result of an impact assessment, if the frequency of the disease of interest varies across different populations due to other risk factors than the one considered. Thus, it was concluded that whenever studies from different population contexts are pooled, careful considerations about the appropriate type of measure are required. In environmental health risk assessment with usually small risks and unspecific (i.e., multicausal) health endpoints, an excess rate-based approach may provide a more reliable and stable estimate than a relative risk based approach in many circumstances. Methodological details of an excess rate-based approach are presented in the paper.     

Restoring Wild Salmon to the Pacific Northwest: Framing the Risk Question

In the Pacific Northwest of the United States, it is urgent to assess accurately the various options proposed to restore wild salmon. For the past 150 years, a variety of analytic approaches have been employed to assess the ecological consequences of salmon management options. Each approach provided useful information to decision makers, but each also suffered from limitations, some relatively minor, others sufficient to undermine any potential utility. Risk assessment has become the most widely used analytic approach to evaluate environmental policy options. To date its use in ecological policy has been largely constrained to evaluating relatively simple technical questions (e.g., regulatory actions associated with specific chemicals or hazardous waste sites). Recently, however, there has been interest in applying risk assessment to more complex ecological policy problems (e.g., the decline of wild salmon in the Pacific Northwest). Although its use has become commonplace and widely accepted, especially among regulatory and land management agencies, risk assessment remains contentious. The most heated debates revolve around delineating the specific meaning of risk; that is, framing the risk “question” to be answered.     

Low Risks,High Public Concern? The Cases of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), Heavy Metals,and Nanotech Particles

Risk is an ancient, historic concept; almost everybody has some subjective understanding of what is meant by it. However, there are different types of knowledge, notions, interests, and processes involved both in science-based risk assessment and subjective risk perception. In the present article, we show how risk assessment and risk perception are intricately intertwined. This is exemplified by introducing the state-of-the-art risk assessments applied to three cases (i.e., heavy metals, POPs, and nanotech particles), each with their own unique history and degree of scientific understanding. We elaborate that, when dealing with risk, actors employ different notions (e.g., pure vs. speculative risk), processes (e.g., affective involvement in case) and relations (e.g., trust depending on benefiting from risk) depending on their knowledge, concern, and interests. Finally, we argue that it is important to combine studies on risk perception and risk assessment at an early stage of technology development. The issues and problems of public risk perception are discussed.     

Occupational health impacts: offshore crane lifts in life cycle assessment

Background, Aim, and Scope  The identification and assessment of environmental tradeoffs is a strongpoint of life cycle assessment (LCA). A tradeoff made in many product systems is the exchange of potential for occupational accidents with the additional use of energy and materials. Net benefits of safety measures with respect to human health are best illustrated if the consequences avoided and health impacts induced by additional emissions are assessed using commensurable metrics. Our aim is to develop a human health impact indicator for offshore crane lifts. Crane lifts are a major cause of accidents on offshore oil and gas (O & G) rigs, and health impacts from crane lift accidents should be included in comparative LCA of O & G technologies if the alternatives differ in the use of crane lifts. Materials and methods  Accident records for mobile offshore petroleum installations were used to develop an empirical occupational health indicator for crane lifts in LCA. Probabilistic parameters were introduced in the procedure, and results were calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. The disability adjusted life years (DALY) framework was used to classify health outcome. The characterization factor for offshore crane lifts was applied in three comparisons to evaluate the significance of crane lifts to human health impacts from drilling technology. Results  The mean occupational health impact per crane lift was 4.5∙10⁻⁶ DALY, with cumulative percentiles {P _2.5, P ₅₀, P _97.5} = {6.0∙10⁻⁷, 3.1∙10⁻⁶, 1.7∙10⁻⁵}. Analogously, the fatal accident frequency was described by {P _2.5, P ₅₀, P _97.5} = {7.6∙10⁻⁹, 3.9∙10⁻⁸, 2.0∙10⁻⁷}, with mean 5.6∙10⁻⁸ lives lost per crane lift. Discussion  The uncertainty in the results is caused mainly by the random nature of accidents, i.e., variability in accident frequency. Applications of the characterization factor indicate that although crane lifts may not be significant to the overall health impact of the life cycle of drilling fluids, they are important to the occupational safety of employees on offshore drilling rigs and contribute significantly to the life cycle health impact of loading technologies used to transport drilling waste to shore. A comparative LCA of technologies for loading and off-loading drilling wastes shows that a recently developed hydraulic system performs better than the traditional crane lift alternative in terms of human health impacts. Conclusions  With the availability of statistics to assess the risk of single mechanical operations, safety aspects may well be included in LCA. For the case of offshore crane lifts, the uncertainty in the characterization factor compares favorably to what is indicated for other human health impact chains. In further work of quantifying occupational health impacts in DALY using accident statistics, it is advised to see if records of non-recoverable injuries (fatalities and amputation cases) can be used to simplify the damage assessment procedure as recoverable injuries were insignificant to the total burden from crane accidents. Recommendations and perspectives  The characterization factor for crane lifts identifies contributions to life cycle health impact from loading technologies that otherwise would have been overlooked in LCA. While many contest the inclusion of occupational accidents in LCA, our results show that such impacts can be included and that their consideration adds valuable insights.     

An historical overview of the activities in the field of exposure and risk assessment of non-ionizing radiation in Bulgaria

Abstract

The exposure and risk evaluation process in Bulgaria concerning non-ionizing radiation health and safety started in the early 1970s. Then, the first research laboratory “Electromagnetic fields in the working environment” was founded in the framework of the Centre of Hygiene, belonging to the Medical Academy, Sofia. The main activities were connected with developing legislation, new equipment for measurement of electromagnetic fields, new methods for measurement and exposure assessment, in vivo and human studies for developing methods, studying the effect of non-ionizing radiation on human body, developing exposure limits. Most of the occupations as metal industry, plastic welding, energetics, physiotherapy, broadcasting, telephone stations, computer industry, etc., have been covered by epidemiological investigations and risk evaluation. In 1986, the ANSI standard for safe use of lasers has been implemented as national legislation that gave the start for studies in the field of risk assessment concerning the use of lasers in industry and medicine. The environmental exposure studies started in 1991 following the very fast implementation of the telecommunication technologies. Now, funds for research are very insignificant, and studies in the field of risk assessment are very few. Nevertheless, Bulgaria has been an active member of the WHO International EMF Project, since 1997, and that gives good opportunity for collaboration with other Member states, and for implementation of new approach in the EMF policy for workers and people’s protection against non-ionizing radiation exposure.     

Fuzzy rule-based Fine–Kinney risk assessment approach for rail transportation systems

Rail transportation is one of the most crucial public transportation types for big and crowded cities. In rail transportation systems, stakeholders face serious issues involved in workshops, stations, lines and their environments, and general office buildings. In order to reach an increased awareness and better occupational health and safety (OHS) management, a new risk assessment approach is proposed in this study. This approach includes a combination of Fine–Kinney method and a fuzzy rule-based expert system. It captures nonlinear causal relationships between Fine–Kinney parameters. Since there is a high level of vagueness involved in the OHS risk assessment data, the rule-based expert system is developed for probability (P), exposure (E), and consequence (C) for evaluating risk score. A case study is carried out in a rail transportation system in Istanbul/Turkey, and a comparison with the classical Fine–Kinney method is discussed. Results of the case study reveal risk clusters and corresponding control measures that should be taken into consideration. The study methodologically contributes to risk assessment in the knowledge, while case study in a real rail transportation system offers an insight into public transport industry in safety improvement.     

The Concept of Data Utility in Health Risk Assessment: A Multi-Disciplinary Perspective

Human and ecological health risk assessments and the decisions that stem from them require the acquisition and analysis of data. In agencies that are responsible for health risk decision-making, data (and/or opinions/judgments) are obtained from sources such as scientific literature, analytical and process measurements, expert elicitation, inspection findings, and public and private research institutions. Although the particulars of conducting health risk assessments of given disciplines may be dramatically different, a common concern is the subjective nature of judging data utility. Often risk assessors are limited to available data that may not be completely appropriate to address the question being asked. Data utility refers to the ability of available data to support a risk-based decision for a particular risk assessment. This article familiarizes the audience with the concept of data utility and is intended to raise the awareness of data collectors (e.g., researchers), risk assessors, and risk managers to data utility issues in health risk assessments so data collection and use will be improved. In order to emphasize the cross-cutting nature of data utility, the discussion has not been organized into a classical partitioning of risk assessment concerns as being either human health- or ecological health-oriented, as per the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Superfund Program.     

Updating the “Risk Index”: A systematic review and meta-analysis of occupational injuries and work schedule characteristics

Fatigue is a major risk factor for occupational ‘accidents’ and injuries, and involves dimensions of physical, mental, and muscular fatigue. These dimensions are largely influenced by temporal aspects of work schedules. The “Risk Index” combines four fatigue-related components of work schedules to estimate occupational ‘accident’ and injury risk based on empirical trends: shift type (morning, afternoon/evening, night), length and consecutive number, and on-shift rest breaks. Since its first introduction in 2004, several additional studies have been published that allow the opportunity to improve the internal and external validity of the “Risk Index”. Thus, we updated the model’s estimates by systematically reviewing the literature and synthesizing study results using meta-analysis. Cochrane Collaboration directives and MOOSE guidelines were followed. We conducted systematic literature searches on each model component in Medline. An inverse variance approach to meta-analysis was used to synthesize study effect sizes and estimate between-studies variance (‘heterogeneity’). Meta-regression models were conducted to explain the heterogeneity using several effect modifiers, including the sample age and sex ratio. Among 3,183 initially identified abstracts, after screening by two independent raters (95–98% agreement), 29 high-quality studies were included in the meta-analysis. The following trends were observed: Shift type. Compared to morning shifts, injury risk significantly increased on night shifts (RR = 1.36 [95%CI = 1.15–1.60], n = 14 studies), while risk was slightly elevated on afternoon/evening shifts, although non-significantly (RR = 1.12 [0.76–1.64], n = 9 studies). Meta-regressions revealed worker’s age as a significant effect modifier: adolescent workers (≤ 20 y) showed a decreased risk on the afternoon/evening shift compared to both morning shifts and adult workers (p < 0.05). Number of consecutive shifts. Compared to the first shift in a block of consecutive shifts, risk increased exponentially for morning shifts (e.g., 4th: RR = 1.09 [0.90–1.32]; n = 6 studies) and night shifts (e.g., 4th: RR = 1.36 [1.14–1.62]; n = 8 studies), while risk on afternoon/evening shifts appeared unsystematic. Shift length. Injury risk rose substantially beyond the 9th hour on duty, a trend that was mirrored when looking at shift lengths (e.g., >12 h: RR = 1.34 [1.04–1.51], n = 3 studies). Rest breaks. Risk decreased for any rest break duration (e.g., 31–60 min: RR = 0.35 [0.29–0.43], n = 2 studies). With regards to time between breaks, risk increased with every additional half hour spent on the work task compared to the first 30 min (e.g., 90–119 min: RR = 1.62 [1.00–2.62], n = 3 studies). Rest break duration and interval seem to interact such that with increasing duration, the time between breaks becomes irrelevant. The updated “Risk Index”. All four components were combined to form the updated model and the relative risk values estimated for a variety of work schedules. The resulting “Risk Map” shows regions of highest risk when rest breaks are not taken frequently enough (i.e. <4 h) or are too short (i.e. <30 min), when shift length exceeds 11 h, and when work takes place during the night (particularly for >3 consecutive night shifts). The “Risk Index” is proposed as an empirical model to predict occupational ‘accident’ and injury risk based on the most recent data in the field, and can serve as a tool to evaluate hazards and maximize safety across different work schedules.     

Chemical speciation and risks of heavy metals in sediment of urban wetlands in southeastern China

Dredging, remediation, and other management of sediment in polluted urban wetlands require the information of environmental risks associated with heavy metals (HMs). In this study, sediment samples collected from three typical wetlands in the urban area of Wenzhou City, China, were analyzed to evaluate their risks posed by five HMs. Sediments from an industrial area stored higher Cr and Cu but lower Cd and Pb than those from the residential and agricultural areas. The assessment by the pollution load index method indicated that all of the three study wetlands were polluted. An ecological risk index approach identified low risk for wetlands in forested and residential areas but high risk for wetlands in an industrial area as well as in mixed residential and agricultural area, which was also confirmed by the geo-accumulation index (I_geo) method. Furthermore, the ratio of the secondary phase and primary phase and risk assessment code methods recognized that Cd poses a high pollution risk. The results indicated that sediment pollution by HMs in urban wetlands is possibly a widespread problem in China and needs great attention.     

Patterns of otter Lutra lutra road mortality in a landscape abundant in lakes

In order to reduce otter (Lutra lutra) road mortality and to predict accident sites, we assessed the localities of traffic accidents involving otters in the Uckermark County, Brandenburg, Northeast Germany. Eighty-eight otter accident sites from the years 1990 to 2003—as recorded by the Naturschutzstation Zippelsförde des Landesumweltamtes Brandenburg (Brandenburg State Office for Environment)—were categorised according to traffic and road patterns, otter habitat suitability, as well as presence and type of watercourse crossings. From these numerical data, we compiled a list of characteristics to identify other potentially dangerous sites where otter road traffic accidents are likely to occur using a geographic information system. With a principal component analysis, we categorised three groups of accident sites. Firstly, most otter road accidents were located close to either one or two lakes. Secondly, otters were frequently killed at places where no body of water occurred within a distance of 200 m to the road. Thirdly, and in contrast to other locations, in the Uckermark County, fewest accidents happened where a road crossed a watercourse. Mitigation measures were suggested and discussed for the recorded and potential accident sites.