Risk Ranking by the British Public: A Survey of Worry About a Broad Spectrum of Risk Issues

Much attention has focused on people's concerns about technological and environmental risks, but it is important to acknowledge that these are not the only risks that individuals have to face. In this article we present the results of a national survey ranking levels of worry across a broader spectrum of risk issues, including ‘lifestyle’, social welfare, financial and personal safety risks. A total of 1742 interviews were conducted, at home, among a nationally representative quota sample of adults age 15+ in Great Britain. Field work took place between January 24 to 27, 1997. Respondents' spontaneous mentions of worry centered on issues to do with health, education, and money. When prompted, respondents expressed most concern about a number of social issues, while certain ‘lifestyle’ factors identified as significant risks to health were accorded only low levels of worry. The survey demonstrates that risk issues that engage some expert attention do not always have the same immediacy for the general public. Thus, while technological and environmental risks certainly deserve attention, they should not overshadow consideration of other risks that have equal if not greater implications for people's lives.     

Exploring the Determinants of the Perceived Risk of Food Allergies in Canada

Food allergies are emerging health risks in much of the Western world, and some evidence suggests prevalence is increasing. Despite lacking scientific consensus around prevalence and management, policies and regulations are being implemented in public spaces (e.g., schools). These policies have been criticized as extreme in the literature, in the media, and by the non-allergic population. Backlash appears to be resulting from different perceptions of risk between different groups. This article uses a recently assembled national dataset (n = 3,666) to explore how Canadians perceive the risks of food allergy. Analyses revealed that almost 20% self-report having an allergic person in the household, while the average respondent estimated the prevalence of food allergies in Canada to be 30%. Both of these measures overestimate the true clinically defined prevalence (7.5%), indicating an inflated public understanding of the risks of food allergies. Seventy percent reported food allergies to be substantial risks to the Canadian population. Multivariate logistic regression models revealed important determinants of risk perception including demographic, experience-based, attitudinal, and regional predictors. Results are discussed in terms of understanding emerging health risks in the post-industrial era, and implications for both policy and risk communication.     

Air Pollution from Industry and Traffic: Perceived Risk and Affect in the Moerdijk Region,The Netherlands

The aim of the present study was to compare the perceived risks of air pollution from industry and traffic in the Moerdijk region in The Netherlands, and to identify the demographic and psychometric variables that are associated with these perceived risks. We sent out a questionnaire and risk perceptions were explored using multiple regression models. The results showed that the perceived risks of industrial air pollution were higher than for those of traffic-related air pollution. The perceived risk of industrial air pollution was associated with other variables than that of traffic. For industry, the psychometric variable affect prevailed. For traffic-related air pollution, the demographic variables age and educational level prevailed, although affect was also apparent. Which source was considered as the major source—traffic or industry—depended on a high risk perception of industrial air pollution, and not on variation in risk perception of traffic-related air pollution. These insights can be used as an impetus for the local risk management process in the Moerdijk region. We recommend that local authorities consider risk perception as one of the targets in local risk management strategies as well.     

Bayesian Updating of Model-Based Risk Estimates Using Imperfect Public Health Surveillance Data

Model-based estimation of the human health risks resulting from exposure to environmental contaminants can be an important tool for structuring public health policy. Due to uncertainties in the modeling process, the outcomes of these assessments are usually probabilistic representations of a range of possible risks. In some cases, health surveillance data are available for the assessment population over all or a subset of the risk projection period and this additional information can be used to augment the model-based estimates. We use a Bayesian approach to update model-based estimates of health risks based on available health outcome data. Updated uncertainty distributions for risk estimates are derived using Monte Carlo sampling, which allows flexibility to model realistic situations including measurement error in the observable outcomes. We illustrate the approach by using imperfect public health surveillance data on lung cancer deaths to update model-based lung cancer mortality risk estimates in a population exposed to ionizing radiation from a uranium processing facility.     

桶装纯净水中三种有害元素对人体的健康风险评价

本文根据2001～2004年对桶装纯净水的监测结果,将健康风险评价的方法应用于纯净水的卫生质量评价中,根据相应的数学模型分别计算了桶装纯净水中化学致癌物As和非致癌污染物Pb、Cu通过饮用途径对人体健康的年风险。桶装纯净水中的3种有害元素由饮水途径对人体所致的健康危害程度依次是As>Pb>Cu。其中As是主要的污染,占个人年风险的99.98%。而在非致癌污染物中,Pb又是主要污染,占非致癌污染物个人年风险的82.9%。     

Validity of Using Background Leukemia Incidence Rates with Cohort Mortality-Based Potency Estimates to Calculate Excess Lifetime Risk

Data from occupational cohort mortality studies have been used to derive exposure-response curves and general population excess lifetime cancer risks, given low-level, chronic exposure. Using an actuarial method, mortality-based rate ratios associated with cumulative exposures are applied to age-specific background cancer mortality rates for a theoretical population aged birth to 70 years. In one recent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency health assessment, a mortality-based leukemia relative rate model was used with background leukemia incidence rates, rather than mortality rates, to calculate excess lifetime risk of leukemia incidence. We examined the validity and implications of this novel approach, while considering possible bias if a potential leukemogen did not pose equal risk by cell type. Limited sensitivity analyses were also conducted. Our analyses show that using total leukemia mortality-based potency estimates with background incidence rates will introduce a biased estimate of excess lifetime risk, the direction of which varies by potency and the histological type of leukemia. These biases were somewhat increased on adjustment for possible greater susceptibility of children. For potent carcinogens, the traditional approach provides a reasonable approximation of excess lifetime mortality risk for both the more and less fatal forms of leukemia, even after adjustments for children and is, therefore, to be preferred. Less consistency by leukemia cell type and background rate was observed for flatter exposure-response curves. This evaluation illustrates the importance of carefully examining the impact of methodological changes to calculations of excess lifetime risk before implementation.     

Predicting Emergency Response Intentions Among the Canadian Public in the Context of Terrorism Threats: Examining Sociodemographics and the Mediating Role of Risk Perception

Much research in emergency preparedness is dedicated to exploring differences in behavior based on sociodemographic attributes. It has been suggested that these differences may be partially explained by cognitive threat appraisals; however, this relationship is rarely tested empirically in the literature. This study investigates the mediational role of cognitive threat appraisals on the relationship between sociodemographic attributes and anticipated emergency response in a representative sample of the Canadian public (n = 1502). Findings reveal that a number of sociodemographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, and income were significantly related to anticipated emergency response. Cognitive threat appraisals—including two measures of risk perception for terrorism threats—were similarly found to differ significantly by sociodemographic attributes, and were significantly related to anticipated emergency response. However, with the exception of gender, these differences in risk perception did not significantly explain the sociodemographic differences in anticipated response. These results suggest that while individual-level differences in appraisal are important considerations in emergency preparedness and response, further research should consider the broader contextual factors relevant to at-risk demographic groups to better explain these relationships. Implications for future research and policy are discussed.     

Analysis of Determining Factors of the Public's Risk Acceptance Level in China

This work will characterize risk acceptance in China, based on the psychometric paradigm, and explore the determining factors that influence the risk acceptable level to the Chinese public. For this purpose, a survey was conducted including 12 hazards, 10 risk attributes (including risk acceptance), and demographic variables. First, the research attempted to explore Nanjing citizens’ average risk acceptable level for 12 hazards in China. Second, intercorrelation analysis and factor analysis of nine risk attributes were performed to obtain the suitable risk perception factors as independent variables. Three risk perception models of acceptance were constructed, which were named “Environmental risk model,” “Daily risk model,” and “Technical risk model,” that explained 59.0–69.6% of variance separately. In general, the variables of Knowledge, Benefit, and Trust were found to be significant in all models, implying that these variables are the main determining factors. However, in the environmental risk model, the variable of effect was also significant, which means the determining factors would change for different types of hazards. These results could help the Chinese government to improve the communication of risks with the public and make effective mitigation policies to improve people's rational judgment on the acceptability of risks.     

Estimates of Lifetime Risk of Occupational Fatal Injury from Age-Specific Rates

The lifetime risk of fatal workplace injury is a critical issue in the evaluation of occupational hazards. Recently, Fosbroke, Kisner, and Myers (1997) described a metric for working lifetime risk (WLTR) to determine the probability that a worker will die due to a work-related fatal injury in a year over a certain number of years of employment. This quantity was defined assuming that the annual rate of fatal injuries will be the same each year during employment. Recognizing the fact that annual fatal injury rates differ with the age of the worker along with other factors, modification of the definition of working lifetime risk is derived. We obtain the estimates of the lifetime risk using age-categorized annual fatality rates and derive an estimate of the standard error of the WLTR estimator and a confidence interval for the WLTR. We illustrate these calculations by estimating the lifetime risk for work-related fatal injuries for workers in four high risk industries: agriculture-forestry-fishing, mining, construction, and transportation public utilities. The estimates are based on employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and an updated version of fatality data from the National Traumatic Occupational Fatalities surveillance system.     

Divergence between general public's risk perception and environmental risk assessment: A case study of p-xylene projects in China

The growing public opposition to p-xylene (PX) project proposals in China requires understanding the divergence between the general public's risk perception and environmental risk assessment (ERA) results and its implications on its decision-making. In a case study in Fujian Province of China, a questionnaire was designed to investigate the public perception of risks of a proposed PX project, interviews were further conducted in Zhangzhou City and Xiamen City, and the survey results were compared with the ERA results of the proposed PX project. Results indicate that the environmental risk is acceptable according to current technical ERA guidelines and standards, while the public acceptance of the PX project is very low. The underlying factors causing the difference between the general public's risk perception and ERA results were identified from the ERA technical perspective. A better understanding of the risk perception divergence from different disciplinary perspectives is helpful for the public acceptance of these kinds of projects, which are on high demand in China. This study not only highlights the necessity to improve the risk communication but also provides insights on future research of ERA for this kind of large-scale project proposal.     

Public Reactions to Risk Messages Communicating Different Sources of Uncertainty: An Experimental Test

There is an abundant literature on the challenge of integrating uncertainties in experts’ risk assessments, but the evidence on the way they are understood by the public is scarce and mixed. This study aims to better understand the effect of communicating different sources of uncertainty in risk communication. A causal design was employed to test the effect of communicating risk messages varying in type of advisory warning (no risk and suggests no protective measure, or risk and recommends a protective measure) and sources of uncertainty (no uncertainty, divergence between experts, contradictory data, or lack of data) on public reactions. Participants from the general public (N = 434) were randomly assigned to read and react to variants of a fictitious government message discussing the presence of a new micro-organism found in tap water. Multiple analysis of variance showed that to report uncertainty from divergence between experts or from contradictory data reduced the adherence to the message, but not to mention the lack of data. Moreover, the communication of diverse sources of uncertainty did not affect trust in the government when the advisory warning stated there was a risk and recommended a protective measure. These findings have important implications for risk communication.     

Relationships between Aquatic Hazard Quotients and Probabilistic Risk Estimates: What Is the Significance of a Hazard Quotient >1?

This study examined relationships between hazard quotients (HQ) and probabilistic estimates of aquatic ecological risk. Questions addressed included the magnitude at which an HQ equates to significant risk, and the factors influencing the HQ-risk relationship. The analysis was based upon predicted exposure concentrations (PEC) for copper, hypothetical predicted no effect concentrations (PNEC) distributions, and measured PNEC data for aquatic species acutely and chronically exposed to copper, ammonia, cadmium, cyanide, dieldrin, DDT, phenanthrene, silver. and zinc. The cumulative PNEC and PEC distributions differed in slopes and magnitudes. The relationship between HQ and probabilistic risk, both of which were computed using conventional techniques, depended on the slopes of the PNEC and PEC distributions. Hazard quotients equaling 1.0 affected ～ 5% of the species because they were based on PNECs intended to protect 5% of the species. Hazard quotients greater than 1.0 depended on PNEC slope. For example, HQs for toxicants with the steeper PNEC distributions affected a large percentage of species (18 to 49%, depending on slope) at HQ=2 to 3. Other factors (e.g., variability in both PEC and PNEC data, and use of arithmetic or geometric means or their confidence limits) had variable influences on the HQ-risk relationship.     

公共空间安全感研究：以上海城市街景感知为例

在文献基础上梳理了街道安全感影响因素,并采用上海样本检验了“街道眼”等西方街道安全理论。邀请30位学生和30位市民对上海5个不同发展时期社区的300张百度街景图片进行安全感评定。实验发现绿视率、管理程度、车道数等都对安全感起着显著作用,并分别建立了单双车道和多车道街道空间的安全感回归模型。其中发现绿视率（单双车道相关系数R=0.728,p<0.01;多车道相关系数R=0.471,p<0.01）、管理程度（单双车道相关系数R=0.766,p<0.01;多车道相关系数R=0.450,p<0.01）、车道数量因素（相关系数R=0.502,p<0.01）对安全感均有显著的积极作用,界面透明度（单双车道相关系数R=0.222,p<0.01）、独立自行车道（相关系数R=0.309,p<0.01）及设计美感（相关系数R=0.432,p<0.01）等因素在单双车道空间中具有积极影响,而助动车与自行车（单双车道相关系数R=-0.327,p<0.01;多车道相关系数R=-0.281,p<0.01）在对安全感知评价具有消极影响,机动车（单双车道相关系数R=0.251,p<0.01;多车道相关系数R=-0.327,p<0.01）在单双车道与多车道空间中呈现相反的作用。     

Extrapolation in Human Health and Ecological Risk Assessments: Proceedings of a Symposium

A symposium was conducted in April 1998 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL) to explore issues of extrapolation in human health and ecological risk assessments. Over the course of three and one half days, leading health and ecology experts presented and discussed research methods and approaches for extrapolating data among taxa and across levels of biological organization, through time, and across spatial scales. The intended result of this symposium was enhanced interaction among a diverse array of scientists, policymakers, and risk assessors to promote identification of approaches for reducing the uncertainties of extrapolation in risk assessment.     

Trends in Risk Assessment of Chemicals in the European Union

Current legislation in the European Union (EU) requires a risk assessment for industrial chemicals. The underlying procedures and paradigms of such EU risk assessment for new and existing chemicals are explained. The risk assessment is performed according to a harmonised methodology, laid down in the Technical Guidance Documents (TGD). Important new, technical risk assessment aspects covered in a recent revision round of the TGD are highlighted. The most prominent change in the environmental TGD part is the addition of the marine risk assessment, including a Persistent Bioaccumulation and Toxicity (PBT) assessment. In the human health part a significant change is the new data requirement for reproductive toxicity. The performance of both the risk assessment and the risk reduction phase of EU existing chemicals have been evaluated. An important conclusion was that our a priori knowledge on possible risks of chemicals is poor. The European Commission has recently launched a proposal (REACH) for drastically changing the risk management process of industrial chemicals in the EU. Major changes are a shift in responsibility from authorities to industry (including downstream users) for the safe use of chemicals, an acceleration of data collection for ‘non-assessed’ chemicals, and an authorization step for substances of very high concern.     

Trends in the Development of Ecological Risk Assessment and Management Frameworks

Ecological risk assessment and management have grown from a long history of assessment and management activities aimed at improving the everyday lives of humans. The background against which ecological risk assessment and management has developed is discussed and recent trends in the development of risk assessment and management frameworks documented. Seven frameworks from five different countries are examined. All maintain an important role for science, suggest adaptive approaches to decision-making and have well-defined analytical steps. Differences in approaches toward the separation of policy and science, the preference for management over assessment, the inclusion of stakeholders, the iterative nature of the analytical cycle, the use of decision criteria and economic information suggest considerable evolution in framework design over time. Despite the changes, no consensus on the design of a framework is apparent and work remains to be done on refining an integrative framework that effectively incorporates both policy and science considerations for environmental management purposes.     

Indicators for Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: A U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Perspective

Assessment of risk to public health or environmental resources requires competent characterization of stressors and corresponding effects. Because of the complexity of most stressor-response relationships, it is impossible to completely characterize all the variables, so a select set of measurements is made to reflect the most critical components. Such measurements, or indicators, are included in monitoring programs to estimate trend, stressor source, or magnitude of effects and lead to thresholds for management action or restoration. Although a wide variety of programs and program objectives exists, there are some common challenges for indicator development, including a strong link to management actions. Indicator measurements used in U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) risk assessment activities must stem from collaboration among managers, risk assessors, scientists and stakeholders. The primary objective of the USEPA's Fifth Symposium of the National Health and Ecological Effects Research Laboratory was to improve health and ecological risk assessment through dedicated sessions that maximized interaction and discussion among these groups. Existing measurements were challenged for appropriateness, efficiency and scientific validity. Emerging science was explored for greater understanding, better interpretation, and improved methodology. A secondary objective was to uncover and exploit common indicators and supporting data for human health and ecological models.     

Axes of Extrapolation in Risk Assessment

Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to characterize risks comprehensively, that direct characterization is sometimes impossible, and that the power to characterize risk in a particular situation can be enhanced by using information obtained in other similar situations. Three types of extrapolation are common in risk assessments: biological (including between taxa and across levels of biological organization), temporal, and spatial. They can be thought of conceptually as the axes of a 3-dimensional graph defining the state space of biological, temporal, and spatial scales within which extrapolations are made. Each of these types of extrapolation can introduce uncertainties into risk assessments. Such uncertainties may be reduced through synergistic research facilitated by the sharing of methods, models, and data used by human health and ecological scientists     

Framework for the Integration of Health and Ecological Risk Assessment

The World Health Organization's International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have developed a collaborative partnership to foster integration of assessment approaches for human health and ecological risks. This paper presents the framework developed by that group. Integration provides coherent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The paper describes how integration can occur within each component of risk assessment, and communicates the benefits of integration at each point. The goal of this effort is to promote the use of this internationally accepted guidance as a basis for harmonization of risk assessment.     

Perceptions of Mercury Risk and Its Management

Anthropogenic activities, such as coal burning for electricity generation, release mercury (Hg), a toxic, bioaccumulative pollutant with potential health impacts primarily borne by specific population groups such as women of child-bearing age and subsistence fishers. Current Hg risk communication efforts and much of the extant research on Hg risk perceptions focus on these groups most at-risk. Little is known about the perceptions of Hg risk among the general public, although their support is required for implementing Hg emissions mitigation policies. We report results from two surveys—one a U.S. nationally representative Internet survey and the other a mail survey of New England residents—on a range of perceptions of the general population regarding Hg risk and its management. Our analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from the surveys point toward some gaps in public understanding of Hg risk, on aspects such as sources of mercury release, agencies responsible for mercury information, and products that contain mercury. Our results suggest that agencies responsible for providing Hg information should go beyond fish advisories and enhance their efforts at wider dissemination of information on Hg risk and its management.