Biased Confidence in Risk Assessment Studies

The present research examined factors that influence laypeople's confidence in the results of risk assessment studies. A 2 (hazard; cell phone, base station) × 2 (study outcome; no risk, risk) × 2 (health effect; well-being, cancer) × 3 (risk perception prior to the manipulation; low, medium, high) design was used. Results showed that participants had more confidence in studies with results that were in line with their prior attitudes compared with studies that were at odds with their prior attitudes. In addition, participants had more confidence in studies showing a risk compared with studies showing no risk. Results suggest that these biases may be one of the reasons why laypeople are concerned about technological risks, even when risk assessment studies indicate that there is a low probability of adverse health effects.     

Analysis of Determining Factors of the Public's Risk Acceptance Level in China

This work will characterize risk acceptance in China, based on the psychometric paradigm, and explore the determining factors that influence the risk acceptable level to the Chinese public. For this purpose, a survey was conducted including 12 hazards, 10 risk attributes (including risk acceptance), and demographic variables. First, the research attempted to explore Nanjing citizens’ average risk acceptable level for 12 hazards in China. Second, intercorrelation analysis and factor analysis of nine risk attributes were performed to obtain the suitable risk perception factors as independent variables. Three risk perception models of acceptance were constructed, which were named “Environmental risk model,” “Daily risk model,” and “Technical risk model,” that explained 59.0–69.6% of variance separately. In general, the variables of Knowledge, Benefit, and Trust were found to be significant in all models, implying that these variables are the main determining factors. However, in the environmental risk model, the variable of effect was also significant, which means the determining factors would change for different types of hazards. These results could help the Chinese government to improve the communication of risks with the public and make effective mitigation policies to improve people's rational judgment on the acceptability of risks.     

Comparison of Different Risk Perception Measures in Predicting Seasonal Influenza Vaccination among Healthy Chinese Adults in Hong Kong: A Prospective Longitudinal Study

Background

Risk perception is a reported predictor of vaccination uptake, but which measures of risk perception best predict influenza vaccination uptake remain unclear.

Methodology

During the main influenza seasons (between January and March) of 2009 (Wave 1) and 2010 (Wave 2),505 Chinese students and employees from a Hong Kong university completed an online survey. Multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to assess how well different risk perceptions measures in Wave 1 predicted vaccination uptake against seasonal influenza in Wave 2.

Principal Findings

The results of the multivariate logistic regression models showed that feeling at risk (β = 0.25, p = 0.021) was the better predictor compared with probability judgment while probability judgment (β = 0.25, p = 0.029 ) was better than beliefs about risk in predicting subsequent influenza vaccination uptake. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk seemed to predict the same aspect of subsequent vaccination uptake because their associations with vaccination uptake became insignificant when paired into the logistic regression model. Similarly, to compare the four scales for assessing probability judgment in predicting vaccination uptake, the 7-point verbal scale remained a significant and stronger predictor for vaccination uptake when paired with other three scales; the 6-point verbal scale was a significant and stronger predictor when paired with the percentage scale or the 2-point verbal scale; and the percentage scale was a significant and stronger predictor only when paired with the 2-point verbal scale.

Conclusions/Significance

Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk are not well differentiated by Hong Kong Chinese people. Feeling at risk, an affective-cognitive dimension of risk perception predicts subsequent vaccination uptake better than do probability judgments. Among the four scales for assessing risk probability judgment, the 7-point verbal scale offered the best predictive power for subsequent vaccination uptake.     

Environmental Health Risk Perception of a Nationwide Sample of Taiwan College Students Majoring in Engineering and Health Sciences

The present study aims to characterize Taiwan college students’ risk perception on 26 environmental health hazards, and to identify influential factors contributing to their perceived risk. A total of 1218 nationwide college students and 35 professors participated in the study. Despite their varying demographic background, the students on average show very similar perceived relative risks, particularly for hazards of high-rank risk. Aggregate-level data analyses show that the perceived risk of a hazard increases with its increasing dreadfulness, but decreases with its increasing unknown to the participants. On the other hand, the factors contributing to the perceived risk by an individual are more complex. The dread component is the dominant factor affecting both the students’ and professors’ perceived risk. However, unlike the students, the professors’ perceived risk is also strongly driven by considerations for the exposure characteristics, the uncontrollable nature, and the newness of a hazard. It is notable that, for certain hazards, the perception gaps between the students and professors are substantial, thus highlighting areas of interest for additional risk communication efforts.     

Risk and benefit judgment of excreta as fertilizer in agriculture: An exploratory investigation in Rwanda and Uganda

This research explores the use of psychometric techniques to improve understanding of psychological mechanisms underlying judgment of excreta as fertilizer in agriculture including other excreta-related activities. Participants consisted of environmental health students, smallholder farmers, and traders in rural and urban Rwanda and Uganda. The finding reveals an inverse relationship between risk and benefit judgments. This relationship holds for the three groups of participants with significant risk and benefit correlations of p < .0001. This finding is consistent with other studies in showing that affect plays a key role in risk perception, judgment, and decision-making. Building on this finding, we conclude that individuals with high risk and low benefit judgment for excreta-related practices would eschew them or emphasize strict standards. Individuals with a high benefit and low risk judgment would engage in excreta management practices regardless of the actual risks involved. This finding is relevant for risk communication and risk management as it indicates that individuals do not rely only on risk management information they receive concerning excreta and related risks but also depend, to an extent, on their feelings about these substances when making judgments and decisions regarding the purpose for using excreta as fertilizer and the level of exposure they can tolerate and manage.     

Earthquake Insurance and Earthquake Risk Management

The Wenchuan earthquake is the largest devastating earthquake striking China since the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. In this catastrophe, loss payments were mainly from the government and public endowment. The insurance industry is expected to take more responsibility in the future, since earthquake insurance is one of the most effective and equitable instruments to disperse earthquake losses. In this article, earthquake risk management and the development of earthquake insurance in China are reviewed. Earthquake insurance is suggested as an instrument in earthquake risk management, where the premium rate of earthquake insurance is a key factor that needs to be determined reasonably. Seismic hazard is analyzed for the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area, and is combined with primary loss estimation to construct the exceeding probability curve. Earthquake insurance premium rates are calculated for buildings in the area, including RC (Reinforced Concrete), frame, and brick, corresponding to two kinds of insurance deductible.     

Factors Affecting Risk Perception of Electromagnetic Waves From 5G Network Base Stations

The coverage of the fifth-generation network has increased steadily since the network was introduced in 2019. However, public protests around the globe against the construction of 5G network base stations have continued to occur for fear that electromagnetic (EM) waves emitted from the stations would cause adverse health effects. To identify factors that have contributed to such increased risk perception, we conducted a cross-sectional study using data obtained from a survey that assessed Korean adults’ risk perception of EM wave-related objects. We found that female gender, high level of perceived exposure to EM waves, evaluation of public policies as ineffective, and high level of objective knowledge on EM waves were associated with increased risk perception. Furthermore, we found that higher ratings on a few risk characteristics such as “personal knowledge,” “seriousness of the risk to future generations,” “dreadfulness,” and “severity of consequences” were also associated with increased risk perception as well. Bioelectromagnetics. © 2020 The Authors. Bioelectromagnetics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Bioelectromagnetics Society     

Assessment of Risk Literacy Among German Medical Students: A Cross-Sectional Study Evaluating Numeracy Skills

For successful communication of risk-related disease and treatment modalities, sufficient competence in risk literacy is important. Medical students who will soon be in the responsible role of physicians need to comprehend numeric estimates of probability in order to explain them understandably to patients. Therefore, we have examined the risk literacy among German medical students in a cross-sectional study with 600 participants from the first to the sixth year. Four hundred thirty-four complete datasets (72.35%) could be retrieved. The measuring instrument was the Berlin Numeracy Test, in which a maximum of 4 points could be obtained. Participants achieved an average score of 2.03 points, which is significantly higher than the score defined by the Berlin Numeracy Test (1.6 points). A slight increase from the first (2.00 points) to the sixth academic year (2.38) was detected, which was not significant. In addition, participants who made notes achieved significantly higher test results (2.45) than students who did mental arithmetic (1.77). Male participants showed a significantly higher performance (2.36) than their female colleagues (1.72). Medical students possess a good basis in their risk literacy skills; however, more exercise in dealing with practical case studies is needed.     

Cross-National Validation of an Eight-Factor Model of Societal Risk Perception

This study cross-nationally tested an eight-factor model of societal risk perception. The factors in the model were: Common individual hazards, Pollutants, Energy production and public transportation, Outdoor activities, Sex, deviance and addictions, Medical care, Weapons, and Psychotropic drugs. Using confirmatory factor analyses, the model was tested on a sample of Greek students and on a sample of French students, and was shown to satisfactorily account for the data in both samples. This model may be considered as a potentially useful tool for studying cross-national as well as individual differences (e.g., age, gender, worldviews or personality) in risk perception. Future studies are needed to determine: (a) whether this model applies to samples composed of persons of different ages or composed of persons from non-Western countries and (b) whether this model could be usefully expanded with one or more factors.     

Americans' Nanotechnology Risk Perception:

Although proposed nanotechnology applications hold great promise, little is known about the potential associated risks. This lack of clarity on the level of risk associated with nanotechnology has forced people to make decisions about consumption with incomplete information. A national random digit dialing telephone survey (N= 1014) was conducted in the United States to assess knowledge of nanotechnology and perception of risk in August 2006. This investigation looks critically at individuals' responses to questions about the balance of risks and benefits of nanotechnology, both at the outset of the survey and after respondents were given a brief introduction to the potential benefits and risks of the technology. Models were created to characterzise respondents who said they did not know how nanotechnology's risks and benefits balanced in the “preinformation” condition but who, in the postinformation condition, had a different opinion. Respondents who were highly educated, members of the Republican Party, or male were more likely to switch from “don't know” in the preinformation condition to “benefits outweigh risks” in the postinformation condition, whereas respondents who were less educated, members of the Democratic Party, or female were more likely to switch from “don't know” in the preinformation condition to “risks outweigh benefits” in the postinformation condition. This is the first study to our knowledge to develop a significant model of nanotechnology risk perception change, specifically with regard to gender differences. The power of information provision to sway opinions is also supported, highlighting the importance of developing educational efforts targeting vulnerable populations.     

RISK DETECTION IN INDIVIDUAL HEALTH CARE: ANY LIMITS?

Background: Biomedical science is producing an avalanche of data about risk factors, often with a small predictive value, associated with a broad diversity of diseases. Prevention and screening are increasingly moving from public health into the clinic. Therefore, the question of which risk factors to investigate and disclose in the individual patient, becomes ethically increasingly urgent. In line with Wilson and Jungner's public health‐related 10 principles for screening, it seems crucial to distinguish important from unimportant health risks. Aim: to explore the ways in which clinicians distinguish important from unimportant health risks. Methods: We interviewed 36 respondents (gastroenterologists and gynaecologists/obstetrics) in 5 focus group interviews and 15 open in‐depth interviews on their interpretation of what makes a health risk important. Results: Physicians primarily interpreted importance as the severity of the possible harm, less often its probability. Possibilities of prevention or reassurance strongly influenced their judgment on importance. Discussion: It is not likely that interpreting ‘important’ as ‘severe’ will help in differentiating meaningful from meaningless risk knowledge. A more fundamental change in our ways of dealing with risk may be called for. We discuss existing literature on resilience as an alternative way to deal with risk. Balancing prevention and risk reduction with resilience could be a fruitful direction.     

Cross-Cultural and Site-Based Influences on Demographic, Well-being, and Social Network Predictors of Risk Perception in Hazard and Disaster Settings in Ecuador and Mexico

Although virtually all comparative research about risk perception focuses on which hazards are of concern to people in different culture groups, much can be gained by focusing on predictors of levels of risk perception in various countries and places. In this case, we examine standard and novel predictors of risk perception in seven sites among communities affected by a flood in Mexico (one site) and volcanic eruptions in Mexico (one site) and Ecuador (five sites). We conducted more than 450 interviews with questions about how people feel at the time (after the disaster) regarding what happened in the past, their current concerns, and their expectations for the future. We explore how aspects of the context in which people live have an effect on how strongly people perceive natural hazards in relationship with demographic, well-being, and social network factors. Generally, our research indicates that levels of risk perception for past, present, and future aspects of a specific hazard are similar across these two countries and seven sites. However, these contexts produced different predictors of risk perception—in other words, there was little overlap between sites in the variables that predicted the past, present, or future aspects of risk perception in each site. Generally, current stress was related to perception of past danger of an event in the Mexican sites, but not in Ecuador; network variables were mainly important for perception of past danger (rather than future or present danger), although specific network correlates varied from site to site across the countries.     

Absolute Risk and Loss-of-Lifetime Estimates for Quantitative Risk Assessment

Quantitative risk assessments in public health settings intend to describe the hazard of a specific exposure in a given population on the basis of epidemiological and/or experimental results. Two different risk quantities, the absolute lifetime excess risk and the loss-of-lifetime, which differ in their definition of hazard, are discussed and compared. For both measures estimation procedures are derived and the relationship between the various estimates which are currently in use are investigated. It is shown that the two most common estimators can be written as special cases of a more general concept. This leads to conclusions about the assumptions on which different estimation procedures are implicitly based. For all discussed estimators variance estimates are derived. The analytical results for both risk parameters will be elucidated by an example on lung cancer risk due to residential radon in Germany.     

Care Giver Perception of Children's Obesity‐Related Health Risk: A Study of African American Families

Objective: To examine care giver perception of children's weight‐related health risk in African American families. Research Methods and Procedures: One‐hundred and eleven families (representing 48 boys and 63 girls) screened for participation in a diabetes prevention study participated. Care givers completed a health awareness questionnaire that assessed their perception of the child's weight, eating habits, appearance, exercise habits, and health risk. The care givers also reported each subject's family history of obesity, diabetes, and other chronic diseases. After a physical examination, height and weight were used to compute an age‐ and sex‐adjusted body mass index for each child. Results: Despite the fact that a substantial number of children were obese (57%) and super‐obese (12%), only 44% of the care givers perceived the child's weight to be a potential health problem. Regression analysis showed that 21% of the variance in parental perception of obesity‐related health risk could be predicted by child age, body mass index, perception of frame size, and perception of exercise habits. Discussion: A number of reasons for the apparent minimization of child health risk are discussed, including cultural differences in the acceptance of a large body habitus, lack of knowledge about the connection between childhood obesity and future health risk, and an optimistic bias in the perception of personal health risk.     

Risk knowledge,product knowledge,and brand benefits for purchase intentions: Experiences with air purifiers against city smog in China

The present study is based on the theoretical framework of protective action decision model. This study aims to explain the relationship among the risk knowledge, product knowledge, risk perception, and brand benefits and the consumers’ purchase intentions of a specific air purifier compared with alternative brands. The research context is city smog. Results show that consumers’ risk knowledge and product knowledge significantly affect their purchase of an air purifier brand as well as play a considerable role in predicting their risk perception and in foreseeing their purchase intentions under the influence of the manufacturer's advertising strategies. Furthermore, consumers’ risk perception is a critical psychological factor that has a significantly positive influence on brand's experiential benefits, instead of functional and symbolic benefits. In particular, when comparing with brand's functional and symbolic benefits, the brand's experiential benefits is more attractive to consumers and has a stronger effect on consumers’ air purifier purchase intentions in the context of city smog.     

Enhancing Confidence in Drinking Water Quality for Improved Risk Decisions

Reliance is often placed on “indirect” indicators to detect changes in water quality in real time. However, there are challenges in using these indirect indicators, as they cannot replace standardized laboratory tests. As an alternative, reliance on three successive test cases is examined, based on “joint and conditional probabilities” of hazard (contaminant level exceeding acceptable level) that could enhance confidence in monitoring results: (i) a simple and quick screening analysis sensor (primary analyzer, having type-1 error, i.e., α = 0.10 and type-2 error, i.e., β = 0.05), (ii) a repeat of the analysis with the same rapid analyzer is feasible, and (iii) further analysis of the sample with a highly reliable capability is feasible (secondary analyzer with α = 0.05 and β = 0.02). This three-level monitoring protocol for obtaining the posterior probability of hazard is examined and a method is proposed for taking improved risk management decisions by accounting for sensitivity and specificity of monitoring instruments. The revised probability of hazard will ensure that a positive harmful detect is proven false or real with much greater certainty and series of action (or no action) is taken at the earliest.     

Health Risk Assessments Based on Existing Data of Arsenic,Chromium, Lead,and Zinc in China's Air

Health risk assessments of As, Cr, Pb, and Zn in air in China were carried out from a national perspective. Concentrations of the four metals in air were gathered from published literature. Health risk assessment models recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) were applied to quantitatively characterize risk values of the metals by considering different age groups. Results showed that the atmospheric metal concentrations in most regions of China were lower than their inhalation reference concentrations provided by the USEPA, or limited values provided by China. Non-carcinogenic hazard values of the four metals in different regions of China were all lower than 1, indicating no or low non-carcinogenic hazard. However, the probabilities of carcinogenic risk values for As and Cr exceeding the acceptable value (1.0E-05) were 9% and 10% on a national scale, respectively. Some regions, such as Shanxi, Chongqing, Liaoning, and Shanghai, should be studied in more detail. Despite uncertainties, the results of this study provide information on the health risk of As, Cr, Pb, and Zn in air in China.     

Safety of milk and milk derivatives in relation to BSE: the lactoferrin example

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) belongs to Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSEs) or Prion diseases. BSE is a feed borne infection of cattle. Epidemiological and laboratory data suggest that the BSE infectious agent is responsible for the variant form of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) and that the oral route is the most plausible way of infection. Therefore there is concern that the BSE agent can be transmitted to humans by biological materials (i.e. meat products, blood, milk) from susceptible BSE animal species (mostly cows but possibly, sheep and goats). Lactoferrin (LF) can be produced by purification from large volumes of cow's milk or whey. Therefore, a potential BSE risk for milk and milk products needs to be evaluated by risk assessment. The Committee for proprietary Medicinal Products--CPMP of the European Commission and the WHO have categorized risk tissues from TSE susceptible ruminant species in different classes in relation to the BSE risk for medicinal products. Milk, colostrum, and tissues of the mammary gland have been classified in the category of no detectable infectivity. A secondary contamination of milk can be virtually excluded (i.e. milk is taken from living animals). In the light of current scientific knowledge and irrespective of the geographical origin, milk and milk derivatives (e.g. lactoferrin, lactose) are unlikely to present any risk of TSE contamination provided that milk is sourced from healthy animals in the same conditions as milk collected from human consumption. So the risk of milk and milk derivatives in relation to BSE is negligible.     

Predicting Emergency Response Intentions Among the Canadian Public in the Context of Terrorism Threats: Examining Sociodemographics and the Mediating Role of Risk Perception

Much research in emergency preparedness is dedicated to exploring differences in behavior based on sociodemographic attributes. It has been suggested that these differences may be partially explained by cognitive threat appraisals; however, this relationship is rarely tested empirically in the literature. This study investigates the mediational role of cognitive threat appraisals on the relationship between sociodemographic attributes and anticipated emergency response in a representative sample of the Canadian public (n = 1502). Findings reveal that a number of sociodemographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, and income were significantly related to anticipated emergency response. Cognitive threat appraisals—including two measures of risk perception for terrorism threats—were similarly found to differ significantly by sociodemographic attributes, and were significantly related to anticipated emergency response. However, with the exception of gender, these differences in risk perception did not significantly explain the sociodemographic differences in anticipated response. These results suggest that while individual-level differences in appraisal are important considerations in emergency preparedness and response, further research should consider the broader contextual factors relevant to at-risk demographic groups to better explain these relationships. Implications for future research and policy are discussed.