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单一的预测模型,由于丢弃了大量有用信息,因而影响预测效果。本文采用组合预测,不仅应用了一种新的统计预报方法;而且通过三化螟发生量预测实例,减少了预测误差,提高了准确度。 相似文献
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《环境昆虫学报》2014,(4):487-493
为明确贵州省白背飞虱Sogatella furcifera (Horváth)全年世代尤其主害代发生危害规律,采用灯光诱测的方法系统地研究了近4年来贵州省4个不同稻区的白背飞虱灯下种群发生动态并进行了区域性对比,结果如下:三都稻区和惠水稻区的白背飞虱灯下始见日多在4月中下旬,锦屏稻区和道真稻区的灯下始见日稍晚,在4月下旬至5月中旬,各稻区灯下主峰日与始见日和始盛日均呈显著正相关;4稻区年度诱虫量差异较大,三都稻区的灯下虫量最多,而锦屏稻区最少,各稻区灯下种群中,白背飞虱的雌雄性比均大于1;在第3代灯下虫量上,三都与道真存在显著差异,在第6代虫量上三都与惠水、锦屏也存在显著差异,其他各代虫量间不同稻区并无显著差异。 相似文献
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用多级判别技术预测害虫种群动态 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
判别分析有基于Buyes准则和Fisher准则两种类型,它是多元统计分析中的一种方法,常常应用于气象的预测预报工作,在害虫预测预报领域中还很少见到这方面的报道。作者应用四川省营山县1971~1983年的虫情和气候资料[1],根据Buyes准则的多级判别原理,对第二代二化螟Chilosupressalis(Walker)发生量进行了分析,旨在为水稻孕期保护提供依据。1多级判别的基本原理1.1多级判别的基本思想[2]从已经掌握的历史上每个类别附体)的若干组数据(个体)出发,总结出分类的规律性(判别函数或判别方程或判别模型)。这样,对于新的个体,由巴总… 相似文献
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长江下游地区夜鹭种群微卫星变异及遗传多样性 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
利用微卫星位点对长江下游地区夜鹭3个地方种群的遗传多样性及其种群结构进行了分析。研究结果表明:除了Ah526位点外,其他7个位点在夜鹭种群中均为高度多态。在3个地方种群中,6个微卫星位点中经Bonferroni校正后南京大校场种群和芜湖四褐山种群中分别有2个及3个位点显示杂合不足,显著偏离了哈迪-温伯平衡,这可能与夜鹭繁殖后个体的扩散能力较强及长江下游地区夜鹭存在着替代型迁徙现象有关。突变-漂移平衡分析表明,长江下游地区夜鹭种群显著具有杂合过剩的位点,这表明长江下游地区夜鹭种群已偏离了突变-漂移平衡,近期可能经历了瓶颈效应,种群数量曾经下降。地方种群间Fst分析表明,长江下游地区夜鹭地方种群间遗传分化程度较低,并没有形成显著的遗传结构,在保护与管理上可以作为同一个保护单元(或管理)单元 相似文献
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农田生态系统植物多样性对害虫种群数量的影响 总被引:32,自引:5,他引:32
着重分析植物多样性影响害虫发生为害及种群数量的生态学机制,综合评述了关于这种机制的两种主要假说,即天敌假说和资源集中假说.同时总结了植物多样性增大和减少对害虫控制的有利和不利因素.研究表明农田生态系统中植物多样性的增大在多数情况下能导致某些害虫种群数量的下降,但是目前很难就不同栖境中所有类型的害虫形成一般性的结论 相似文献
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通过在赣州开展为期2年的系统调查,明确了为害赣南脐橙的粉虱种类和发生动态。经鉴定,为害赣南脐橙的粉虱为柑橘粉虱Dialeurodes citri Ashmead和黑刺粉虱Aleurocanthus spiniferus Quaintance。2013年柑橘粉虱,黑刺粉虱卵、若虫、伪蛹、成虫数量平均密度分别为(7.61,6.67,5.45,47.43)头/叶(板),(3.84,2.84,1.82,31.80)头/叶(板);2014年柑橘粉虱,黑刺粉虱分别为(8.29,6.92,5.18,27.16)头/叶(板),(7.89,6.18,4.35,24.06)头/叶(板)。2013-2014年,两种粉虱发生数量较大,全年有多个发生高峰。柑橘粉虱和黑刺粉虱是赣南脐橙上的重要害虫,需加强防治工作,控制为害。 相似文献
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油茶是典型的异花授粉植物,其中虫媒是主要形式,所以利用野生传粉性昆虫来提高油茶授粉效率,解除花粉限制,是解决我国油茶产业"瓶颈"的有效方法之一。目前,关于油茶传粉昆虫的研究比较匮乏,仅限于传粉昆虫的种类调查和部分野生蜜蜂传粉生物学和营巢生物学特性研究,不能满足油茶产业发展的需要。在现有研究基础上,结合传粉昆虫研究发展趋势,本文将提出以下几个重要研究内容:油茶访花昆虫种类的调查和鉴定;主要传粉昆虫传粉生物学研究;优势传粉昆虫的筛选;野生传粉蜜蜂与油茶授粉间的关系;利用传粉昆虫与油茶的协同进化进行油茶品种选育。以期为油茶传粉昆虫的后续研究提供参考。 相似文献
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R. L. KITCHING 《Austral ecology》1977,2(1):31-42
An account is given of the way the temperature-mediated processes of development and locomotor activity in insects interact with the availability of essential resources to reduce lifetime fecundity below the potential predicted from laboratory performance. Current work on the sheep blowfly, Lucilia cuprina, is used to illustrate the points made wherever possible. Brief reviews of the ecologically important relationships between rate of development and temperature and level of activity and temperature are presented. The ways in which such laboratory-derived relationships may be applied in the interpretation of field results are described and discussed. The notions of time as a resource and of protein-food, mates and oviposition sites as limiting resources are presented and these provide the basis of a time/resource/fecundity mechanism limiting reproductive performance during the life-time of a female insect. Field and laboratory data are used to show the potentiality of such a mechanism for reducing life-time fecundity in the sheep-blowfly. 相似文献
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为揭示不同经营措施对油茶林下植物多样性的影响,在广西最大的县级油茶产区三江侗族自治县对5种不同经营措施的油茶林林下植被进行了调查,并对比分析了5种不同经营措施下群落物种组成、结构特征和物种多样性。结果表明:5种不同经营措施的油茶林下物种组成包括63科123属148种,其中灌木层25科44属51种;草本层42科83属97种;共有种为22种;灌木层中占有比重较大的物种以共有种居多,而草本层优势种差异较大,比例较大的物种有13种。多样性指数方面,利用无性系苗木更新改造措施下的油茶林多样性指数最低(P<0.01,除Pielou指数);在相关性分析中,多样性指数与海拔均呈负相关(P<0.01),Margalef、Shannon-Wiener指数与郁闭度、冠幅呈正相关(P<0.01),Simpson指数与郁闭度呈正相关(P<0.01)。该研究说明,不同经营措施对油茶林下植被结构和多样性的影响不仅仅与改造与否有关系,更大程度上取决于采取的改造措施。 相似文献
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James M. Parry 《Molecular & general genetics : MGG》1971,111(1):51-60
Summary The effect of liquid holding treatment after UV exposure has been determined in diploid yeast cultures carrying genes for UV sensitivity in both the homozygous and heterozygous condition. In all cultures liquid holding treatment produced increases in cell viability, but in cultures carrying a UVS gene this was not correlated with the increase in the frequency of intragenic recombinants characteristic of cultures wild type for UV sensitivity, but with a significant decrease in recombinant frequency. The data presented indicates that the reduction in recombinant frequency was not correlated with a reduction in the total number of recombinants after liquid holding treatment but was due to a selective increase in the frequency of non-recombinant cells. 相似文献
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Pérez-de La Cruz M Sánchez-Soto S Ortíz-García CF Zapata-Mata R Cruz-Pérez Ade L 《Neotropical Entomology》2007,36(1):90-101
The aim of this work was to know the diversity of insects captured by weaver spiders in a plantation of cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) of 6 ha in the State of Tabasco, Mexico. The study was carried out from July 2004 to June 2005 by means biweekly samples of the insects captured on the spiders webs. The total of 3,041 webs of 54 species of spiders belonging to seven families (Araneidae, Theridiidae, Tetragnathidae, Uloboridae, Pholcidae, Dyctinidae and Linyphiidae) were revised. We found 1,749 specimens belonging to 10 orders of insects, represented by 93 families, the majority of Coleoptera, Diptera and Hemiptera that constituted 74% of the identified families. The biggest number of specimens of all orders was captured by Araneidae, except of Isoptera, whose specimens were captured mainly by the family Theridiidae. The index of diversity (H'), evenness (J') and similarity (Is), applied to know the diversity of families of insects captured among families of spiders, varied from 0.00 to 3.24, 0.00 to 0.81, and 0.04 to 0.522, respectively. We conclude that there is a wide diversity of insects predated by the weaver spiders in the cocoa agroecosystem, and that there are species that can be promising for the biological control of pests. 相似文献
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Historically, models of the invasion and biological control of insect pests have omitted heterogeneities in the spatial structure of the targeted populations. In this study, we use stochastic network simulations to examine explicitly population heterogeneity as a function of landscape structure and insect behavior. We show that when insects are distributed non-randomly across a heterogeneous landscape, control can be significantly hindered. However, when insect populations are clustered as a result of limited dispersal, genetic control efficiency can be enhanced. In developing the model, we relax a key assumption of previous theoretical studies of genetic control: that released genetic control insects remain homogenously distributed irrespective of the spatial structure of the wild type populations. Here, this behavior (termed the ‘coverage proportion’) is parameterized and its properties are explored. We show that landscape heterogeneity and limited dispersal have little effect on the critical coverage proportion necessary for control. 相似文献
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《Theoretical population biology》2009,75(4):324-331
Historically, models of the invasion and biological control of insect pests have omitted heterogeneities in the spatial structure of the targeted populations. In this study, we use stochastic network simulations to examine explicitly population heterogeneity as a function of landscape structure and insect behavior. We show that when insects are distributed non-randomly across a heterogeneous landscape, control can be significantly hindered. However, when insect populations are clustered as a result of limited dispersal, genetic control efficiency can be enhanced. In developing the model, we relax a key assumption of previous theoretical studies of genetic control: that released genetic control insects remain homogenously distributed irrespective of the spatial structure of the wild type populations. Here, this behavior (termed the ‘coverage proportion’) is parameterized and its properties are explored. We show that landscape heterogeneity and limited dispersal have little effect on the critical coverage proportion necessary for control. 相似文献
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Mark D. Hunter 《Agricultural and Forest Entomology》2002,4(1):1-9
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枣园害虫、捕食性和中性昆虫群落结构及动态研究 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
对山西省太谷地区枣园的害虫、捕食性和中性昆虫群落结构及动态进行研究,结果表明,不同年份枣园的害虫、捕食性和中性昆虫种类与数量均有明显差异(P<0.05),且树上明显大于地面.不同年份捕食性和中性昆虫与害虫的物种数和个体数比例也不同,其物种数和个体数随季节的暖和冷而增加和减少.相同亚群落不同季节的垂直分层结构相似程度不同,不同亚群落在同一季节的垂直分层相似性也不同.总体上垂直分层明显.枣园害虫、捕食性和中性昆虫的多样性指数随季节变化而波动.捕食性和中性昆虫与害虫数量起伏跟随紧密,总体呈极显著相关(r=0.9833,P<0.05).层次间差异明显,以中层相关最显著(r=0.9887,P<0.01) 相似文献
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Seasonal population dynamics and behaviour of insects in models of vector-borne pathogens 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Cynthia C. Lord 《Physiological Entomology》2004,29(3):214-222