Life-history theory, chronic childhood illness and the timing of first reproduction in a British birth cohort

Life-history theoretical models show that a typical evolutionarily optimal response of a juvenile organism to high mortality risk is to reach reproductive maturity earlier. Experimental studies in a range of species suggest the existence of adaptive flexibility in reproductive scheduling to maximize fitness just as life-history theory predicts. In humans, supportive evidence has come from studies comparing neighbourhoods with different mortality rates, historical and cross-cultural data. Here, the prediction is tested in a novel way in a large (n = 9099), longitudinal sample using data comparing age at first reproduction in individuals with and without life-expectancy-reducing chronic disease diagnosed during childhood. Diseases selected for inclusion as chronic illnesses were those unlikely to be significantly affected by shifting allocation of effort away from reproduction towards survival; those which have comparatively large effects on mortality and life expectancy; and those which are not profoundly disabling. The results confirmed the prediction that chronic disease would associate with early age at first reproduction: individuals growing up with a serious chronic disease were 1.6 times more likely to have had a first child by age 30. Analysis of control variables also confirmed past research findings on links between being raised father-absent and early pubertal development and reproduction.     

Closing the Gap: Increases in Life Expectancy among Treated HIV-Positive Individuals in the United States and Canada

Background

Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) has significantly increased survival among HIV-positive adults in the United States (U.S.) and Canada, but gains in life expectancy for this region have not been well characterized. We aim to estimate temporal changes in life expectancy among HIV-positive adults on ART from 2000–2007 in the U.S. and Canada.

Methods

Participants were from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD), aged ≥20 years and on ART. Mortality rates were calculated using participants'' person-time from January 1, 2000 or ART initiation until death, loss to follow-up, or administrative censoring December 31, 2007. Life expectancy at age 20, defined as the average number of additional years that a person of a specific age will live, provided the current age-specific mortality rates remain constant, was estimated using abridged life tables.

Results

The crude mortality rate was 19.8/1,000 person-years, among 22,937 individuals contributing 82,022 person-years and 1,622 deaths. Life expectancy increased from 36.1 [standard error (SE) 0.5] to 51.4 [SE 0.5] years from 2000–2002 to 2006–2007. Men and women had comparable life expectancies in all periods except the last (2006–2007). Life expectancy was lower for individuals with a history of injection drug use, non-whites, and in patients with baseline CD4 counts <350 cells/mm³.

Conclusions

A 20-year-old HIV-positive adult on ART in the U.S. or Canada is expected to live into their early 70 s, a life expectancy approaching that of the general population. Differences by sex, race, HIV transmission risk group, and CD4 count remain.     

Life Expectancy in a Large Cohort of Type 2 Diabetes Patients Treated in Primary Care (ZODIAC-10)

Background

Most longitudinal studies showed increased relative mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus until now. As a result of major changes in treatment regimes over the past years, with more stringent goals for metabolic control and cardiovascular risk management, improvement of life expectancy should be expected. In our study, we aimed to assess present-day life expectancy of type 2 diabetes patients in an ongoing cohort study.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We included 973 primary care type 2 diabetes patients in a prospective cohort study, who were all participating in a shared care project in The Netherlands. Vital status was assessed from May 2001 till May 2007. Main outcome measurement was life expectancy assessed by transforming actual survival time to standardised survival time allowing adjustment for the baseline mortality rate of the general population. At baseline, mean age was 66 years, mean HbA_1c 7.0%. During a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 165 patients died (78 from cardiovascular causes), and 17 patients were lost to follow-up. There were no differences in life expectancy in subjects with type 2 diabetes compared to life expectancy in the general population. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, concentrating on the endpoints ‘all-cause’ and cardiovascular mortality, a history of cardiovascular disease: hazard ratio (HR) 1.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23–2.37), and HR 2.59 (95% CI 1.56–4.28); and albuminuria: HR 1.72 (95% CI 1.26–2.35), and HR 1.83 (95% CI 1.17–2.89), respectively, were significant predictors, whereas smoking, HbA_1c, systolic blood pressure and diabetes duration were not.

Conclusions

This study shows a normal life expectancy in a cohort of subjects with type 2 diabetes patients in primary care when compared to the general population. A history of cardiovascular disease and albuminuria, however, increased the risk of a reduction of life expectancy. These results show that, in a shared care environment, a normal life expectancy is achievable in type 2 diabetes patients.     

Mortality among People with Severe Mental Disorders Who Reach Old Age: A Longitudinal Study of a Community-Representative Sample of 37892 Men

Background

Severe mental illnesses are leading causes of disability worldwide. Their prevalence declines with age, possibly due to premature death. It is unclear, however, if people with severe mental disorders who reach older age still have lower life expectancy compared with their peers and if their causes of death differ.

Methods and Findings

Cohort study of a community-representative sample of 37892 Australian men aged 65–85 years in 1996–1998. Follow up was censored on the 31st December 2010. Lifetime prevalence of schizophrenia spectrum, bipolar, depressive and alcohol-induced disorder was established through record linkage. A subsample of 12136 consented to a face-to-face assessment of sociodemographic, lifestyle and clinical variables. Information about causes of death was retrieved from the Australian Death Registry. The prevalence of schizophrenia spectrum, bipolar, depressive and alcohol-induced disorders was 1.2%, 0.3%, 2.5% and 1.8%. The mortality hazard for men with a severe mental disorder was 2.3 and their life expectancy was reduced by 3 years. Mortality rates increased with age, but the gap between men with and without severe mental disorders was not attenuated by age. Cardiovascular diseases and cancer were the most frequent causes of death. The excess mortality associated with severe mental disorders could not be explained by measured sociodemographic, lifestyle or clinical variables.

Conclusions

The excess mortality associated with severe mental disorders persists in later life, and the causes of death of younger and older people with severe mental disorders are similar. Hazardous lifestyle choices, suboptimal access to health care, poor compliance with treatments, and greater severity of medical comorbidities may all contribute to this increased mortality. Unlike young adults, most older people will visit their primary care physician at least once a year, offering health professionals an opportunity to intervene in order to minimise the harms associated with severe mental disorders.     

The reversal of fortunes: trends in county mortality and cross-county mortality disparities in the United States

Background

Counties are the smallest unit for which mortality data are routinely available, allowing consistent and comparable long-term analysis of trends in health disparities. Average life expectancy has steadily increased in the United States but there is limited information on long-term mortality trends in the US counties This study aimed to investigate trends in county mortality and cross-county mortality disparities, including the contributions of specific diseases to county level mortality trends.

Methods and Findings

We used mortality statistics (from the National Center for Health Statistics [NCHS]) and population (from the US Census) to estimate sex-specific life expectancy for US counties for every year between 1961 and 1999. Data for analyses in subsequent years were not provided to us by the NCHS. We calculated different metrics of cross-county mortality disparity, and also grouped counties on the basis of whether their mortality changed favorably or unfavorably relative to the national average. We estimated the probability of death from specific diseases for counties with above- or below-average mortality performance. We simulated the effect of cross-county migration on each county''s life expectancy using a time-based simulation model. Between 1961 and 1999, the standard deviation (SD) of life expectancy across US counties was at its lowest in 1983, at 1.9 and 1.4 y for men and women, respectively. Cross-county life expectancy SD increased to 2.3 and 1.7 y in 1999. Between 1961 and 1983 no counties had a statistically significant increase in mortality; the major cause of mortality decline for both sexes was reduction in cardiovascular mortality. From 1983 to 1999, life expectancy declined significantly in 11 counties for men (by 1.3 y) and in 180 counties for women (by 1.3 y); another 48 (men) and 783 (women) counties had nonsignificant life expectancy decline. Life expectancy decline in both sexes was caused by increased mortality from lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, and a range of other noncommunicable diseases, which were no longer compensated for by the decline in cardiovascular mortality. Higher HIV/AIDS and homicide deaths also contributed substantially to life expectancy decline for men, but not for women. Alternative specifications of the effects of migration showed that the rise in cross-county life expectancy SD was unlikely to be caused by migration.

Conclusions

There was a steady increase in mortality inequality across the US counties between 1983 and 1999, resulting from stagnation or increase in mortality among the worst-off segment of the population. Female mortality increased in a large number of counties, primarily because of chronic diseases related to smoking, overweight and obesity, and high blood pressure.     

Growing up under generalized violence: An ecological study of homicide rates and secular trends in age at menarche in Colombia, 1940s–1980s

We examined secular changes in mean age at menarche among 5577 Colombian women born between 1941 and 1989, and correlated those changes with nation-wide rates of homicide and real gross domestic product per capita (GDP) at the year of birth and at the year at age 5, within predefined historical periods. The mean (standard error) rate of change in age at menarche by year of birth was −0.55 (0.02) years/decade. The rate of change was not constant, but varied between historical periods as follows: −1.44, −0.14, −0.60, and −0.36 years/decade for the periods 1941–1947, 1948–1958, 1959–1978, and 1979–1989, respectively. The changes in age at menarche correlated positively with the changes in the nation-wide rates of homicide within such periods; i.e. decelerations in the menarcheal trend coincided with increases in the rates of homicide and vice versa. The correlation was higher with the rates of homicide when women were 5 years of age (r = 0.99, p = 0.01) compared to the rates of homicide at the year of birth (0.55, p = 0.45). There were negative correlations between the changes in age at menarche and the changes in GDP, but they were weaker than those with the rates of homicide. These results could suggest a potential impact on maturation of psychosocial stress in childhood due to exposure to a generalized atmosphere of violence and fear.     

Threshold Levels of Infant and Under-Five Mortality for Crossover between Life Expectancies at Ages Zero,One and Five in India: A Decomposition Analysis

Objectives

Under the prevailing conditions of imbalanced life table and historic gender discrimination in India, our study examines crossover between life expectancies at ages zero, one and five years for India and quantifies the relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards this crossover.

Methods

We estimate threshold levels of infant and under-five mortality required for crossover using age specific death rates during 1981–2009 for 16 Indian states by sex (comprising of India’s 90% population in 2011). Kitagawa decomposition equations were used to analyse relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards crossover.

Findings

India experienced crossover between life expectancies at ages zero and five in 2004 for menand in 2009 for women; eleven and nine Indian states have experienced this crossover for men and women, respectively. Men usually experienced crossover four years earlier than the women. Improvements in mortality below ages five have mostly contributed towards this crossover. Life expectancy at age one exceeds that at age zero for both men and women in India except for Kerala (the only state to experience this crossover in 2000 for men and 1999 for women).

Conclusions

For India, using life expectancy at age zero and under-five mortality rate together may be more meaningful to measure overall health of its people until the crossover. Delayed crossover for women, despite higher life expectancy at birth than for men reiterates that Indian women are still disadvantaged and hence use of life expectancies at ages zero, one and five become important for India. Greater programmatic efforts to control leading causes of death during the first month and 1–59 months in high child mortality areas can help India to attain this crossover early.     

Personalized Prediction of Lifetime Benefits with Statin Therapy for Asymptomatic Individuals: A Modeling Study

Background

Physicians need to inform asymptomatic individuals about personalized outcomes of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current prediction models focus on short-term outcomes and ignore the competing risk of death due to other causes. We aimed to predict the potential lifetime benefits with statin therapy, taking into account competing risks.

Methods and Findings

A microsimulation model based on 5-y follow-up data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort of individuals aged 55 y and older living in the Ommoord district of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was used to estimate lifetime outcomes with and without statin therapy. The model was validated in-sample using 10-y follow-up data. We used baseline variables and model output to construct (1) a web-based calculator for gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy and (2) color charts for comparing these gains to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) charts. In 2,428 participants (mean age 67.7 y, 35.5% men), statin therapy increased total life expectancy by 0.3 y (SD 0.2) and CVD-free life expectancy by 0.7 y (SD 0.4). Age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, hypertension, lipids, diabetes, glucose, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and creatinine were included in the calculator. Gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy increased with blood pressure, unfavorable lipid levels, and body mass index after multivariable adjustment. Gains decreased considerably with advancing age, while SCORE 10-y CVD mortality risk increased with age. Twenty-five percent of participants with a low SCORE risk achieved equal or larger gains in CVD-free life expectancy than the median gain in participants with a high SCORE risk.

Conclusions

We developed tools to predict personalized increases in total and CVD-free life expectancy with statin therapy. The predicted gains we found are small. If the underlying model is validated in an independent cohort, the tools may be useful in discussing with patients their individual outcomes with statin therapy. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The State of Health in Older Adults in Japan: Trends in Disability,Chronic Medical Conditions and Mortality

Both life expectancy and healthy life expectancy in Japan have been increasing and are among the highest in the world, but the gap between them has also been widening. To examine the recent trends in old age disability, chronic medical conditions and mortality in Japan, we retrospectively analyzed three nationally representative datasets: Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions (2001–2013), Patient Survey (1996–2011) and Vital Statistics (1995–2010). We obtained the sex- and age-stratified trends in disability rate, treatment rates of nine selected chronic medical conditions (cerebrovascular diseases, joint disorders, fractures, osteoporosis, ischemic heart disease, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, pneumonia and malignant neoplasms), total mortality rate and mortality rates from specific causes (cerebrovascular diseases, heart diseases, pneumonia and malignant neoplasms) in both sexes in four age strata (65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84 years). Disability rates declined significantly in both sexes. Treatment rates of all selected medical conditions also decreased significantly, except for fractures in women and pneumonia. Both total mortality rate and cause-specific mortality rates decreased in both sexes. We concluded that the recent decline in disability rates, treatment rates of chronic medical conditions and mortality rates points toward overall improvement in health conditions in adults over the age of 65 years in Japan. Nonetheless, considering the increase in the number of older adults, the absolute number of older adults with disability or chronic medical conditions will continue to increase and challenge medical and long-term care systems.     

Leg impairment magnifies reproductive costs in male Mediterranean fruit flies,Ceratitis capitata

Injuries frequently accumulate with age in nature. Despite the commonality of injury and the resulting impairment, there are limited experimental data for the effects of impairment on life history trade‐offs between reproduction and survival in insects. We tested the effects of artificial injury and the resulting impairment on the reproductive costs and behavior of male medflies, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Tephritidae). Treatment flies were impaired by amputating tarsomere segments 2–5 from the right foreleg at either eclosion or age 22 days. The effect of impairment and age on the cost of reproduction was tested by varying the timing of female availability among the treatments. Courtship behavior and copulation rates were observed hourly from age 2–5 days to determine the effects of impairment on reproductive behavior. Female access combined with the impairment reduced the life expectancy of males more than the impairment alone, whereas the health effect of amputation was influenced by age. Conversely, the risk of death due to impairment was not influenced by the males' mating status prior to amputation. The males' copulation success was reduced due to impairment, whereas courtship behavior was not affected. Impairment does not reduce the males' impulse to mate, but decreases the females' receptivity to copulation, while also increasing the cost of each successful mating. Overall, minor impairment lowers the reproductive success of males and reduces longevity.     

Life expectancy at birth for people with serious mental illness and other major disorders from a secondary mental health care case register in London

Objective

Despite improving healthcare, the gap in mortality between people with serious mental illness (SMI) and general population persists, especially for younger age groups. The electronic database from a large and comprehensive secondary mental healthcare provider in London was utilized to assess the impact of SMI diagnoses on life expectancy at birth.

Method

People who were diagnosed with SMI (schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, bipolar disorder), substance use disorder, and depressive episode/disorder before the end of 2009 and under active review by the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust (SLAM) in southeast London during 2007–09 comprised the sample, retrieved by the SLAM Case Register Interactive Search (CRIS) system. We estimated life expectancy at birth for people with SMI and each diagnosis, from national mortality returns between 2007–09, using a life table method.

Results

A total of 31,719 eligible people, aged 15 years or older, with SMI were analyzed. Among them, 1,370 died during 2007–09. Compared to national figures, all disorders were associated with substantially lower life expectancy: 8.0 to 14.6 life years lost for men and 9.8 to 17.5 life years lost for women. Highest reductions were found for men with schizophrenia (14.6 years lost) and women with schizoaffective disorders (17.5 years lost).

Conclusion

The impact of serious mental illness on life expectancy is marked and generally higher than similarly calculated impacts of well-recognised adverse exposures such as smoking, diabetes and obesity. Strategies to identify and prevent causes of premature death are urgently required.     

Mortality and Life Expectancy in Homeless Men and Women in Rotterdam: 2001–2010

Background

Data on mortality among homeless people are limited. Therefore, this study aimed to describe mortality patterns within a cohort of homeless adults in Rotterdam (the Netherlands) and to assess excess mortality as compared to the general population in that city.

Methods

Based on 10-year follow-up of homeless adults aged ≥ 20 years who visited services for homeless people in Rotterdam in 2001, and on vital statistics, we assessed the association of mortality with age, sex and type of service used (e.g. only day care, convalescence care, other) within the homeless cohort, and also compared mortality between the homeless and general population using Poisson regression. Life tables and decomposition methods were used to examine differences in life expectancy.

Results

During follow-up, of the 2096 adult homeless 265 died. Among the homeless, at age 30 years no significant sex differences were found in overall mortality rates and life expectancy. Compared with the general Rotterdam population, mortality rates were 3.5 times higher in the homeless cohort. Excess mortality was larger in women (rate ratio [RR] RR 5.56, 95% CI 3.95–7.82) as compared to men (RR 3.31, 95% CI 2.91–3.77), and decreased with age (RR 7.67, 95% CI 6.87–8.56 for the age group 20–44 and RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.41–1.88 for the age group 60+ years). Life expectancy at age 30 years was 11.0 (95% CI 9.1–12.9) and 15.9 (95% CI 10.3–21.5) years lower for homeless men and women compared to men and women in the general population respectively.

Conclusion

Homeless adults face excessive losses in life expectancy, with greatest disadvantages among homeless women and the younger age groups.     

The Changing Gender Differences in Life Expectancy in Chinese Cities 2005-2010

Objectives

To analyze the gender difference in life expectancy in Chinese urban people and explore the age-specific and cause-specific contributions to the changing gender differences in life expectancy.

Methods

Data of life expectancy and mortality were obtained from “Annual statistics of public health in China.” The gender difference was analyzed by decomposition method, including age-specific decomposition and cause-specific decomposition.

Results

Women lived much longer than men in Chinese urban areas, with remarkable gains in life expectancy since 2005, respectively. The gender difference reached a peak in 2007. Mortality difference between men and women in the 60–79 age group made the largest contributions to the gender gap in life expectancy in all 6 years. Among causes of death, cancers, circulatory diseases and respiratory diseases made the largest contributions to the gender gap. 33–38% of the gender gap were caused by cancers, among which lung cancer contributed 0.6 years of the overall gap. The contribution of cancers to the gender gap reduced over time, mostly influenced by the narrowing effect of liver cancer on gender gap. Traffic accidents and suicide were the external causes influencing the gender gap, contributing 10–16% of the overall difference.

Conclusion

Public health efforts to reduce excess mortalities for cancers, circulatory disease, respiratory diseases, and suicide among men in particular might further narrow the gender gap in life expectancy in Chinese cities.     

Prioritizing child health interventions in ethiopia: modeling impact on child mortality, life expectancy and inequality in age at death

Background

The fourth Millennium Development Goal calls for a two-thirds reduction in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015. Under-5 mortality rate is declining, but many countries are still far from achieving the goal. Effective child health interventions that could reduce child mortality exist, but national decision-makers lack contextual information for priority setting in their respective resource-constrained settings. We estimate the potential health impact of increasing coverage of 14 selected health interventions on child mortality in Ethiopia (2011–2015). We also explore the impact on life expectancy and inequality in the age of death (Gini_health).

Methods and Findings

We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate potential impact of scaling-up 14 health interventions in Ethiopia (2011–2015). Interventions are scaled-up to 1) government target levels, 2) 90% coverage and 3) 90% coverage of the five interventions with the highest impact. Under-5 mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate and deaths averted are primary outcome measures. We used modified life tables to estimate impact on life expectancy at birth and inequality in the age of death (Gini_health). Under-5 mortality rate declines from 101.0 in 2011 to 68.8, 42.1 and 56.7 per 1000 live births under these three scenarios. Prioritizing child health would also increase life expectancy at birth from expected 60.5 years in 2015 to 62.5, 64.2 and 63.4 years and reduce inequality in age of death (Gini_health) substantially from 0.24 to 0.21, 0.18 and 0.19.

Conclusions

The Millennium Development Goal for child health is reachable in Ethiopia. Prioritizing child health would also increase total life expectancy at birth and reduce inequality in age of death substantially (Gini_health).     

Cross-country relationships between life expectancy,intertemporal choice and age at first birth

Humans, like other animals, typically discount the value of delayed rewards relative to those available in the present. From an evolutionary perspective, prioritising immediate rewards is a predictable response to high local mortality rates, as is an acceleration of reproductive scheduling. In a sample of 46 countries, we explored the cross-country relationships between average life expectancy, intertemporal choice, and women's age at first birth. We find that, across countries, lower life expectancy is associated with both a smaller percentage of people willing to wait for a larger but delayed reward, as well as a younger age at first birth. These results, which hold when controlling for region and economic pressure (GDP-per capita), dovetail with findings at the individual level to suggest that life expectancy is an important ecological predictor of both intertemporal and reproductive decision-making.     

Should the Arteriovenous Fistula Be Created before Starting Dialysis?: A Decision Analytic Approach

Background

An arteriovenous fistula (AVF) is considered the vascular access of choice, but uncertainty exists about the optimal time for its creation in pre-dialysis patients. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal vascular access referral strategy for stage 4 (glomerular filtration rate <30 ml/min/1.73 m²) chronic kidney disease patients using a decision analytic framework.

Methods

A Markov model was created to compare two strategies: refer all stage 4 chronic kidney disease patients for an AVF versus wait until the patient starts dialysis. Data from published observational studies were used to estimate the probabilities used in the model. A Markov cohort analysis was used to determine the optimal strategy with life expectancy and quality adjusted life expectancy as the outcomes. Sensitivity analyses, including a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, were performed using Monte Carlo simulation.

Results

The wait strategy results in a higher life expectancy (66.6 versus 65.9 months) and quality adjusted life expectancy (38.9 versus 38.5 quality adjusted life months) than immediate AVF creation. It was robust across all the parameters except at higher rates of progression and lower rates of ischemic steal syndrome.

Conclusions

Early creation of an AVF, as recommended by most guidelines, may not be the preferred strategy in all pre-dialysis patients. Further research on cost implications and patient preferences for treatment options needs to be done before recommending early AVF creation.     

Growth and population dynamic model of the reef coral Fungia granulosa Klunzinger, 1879 at Eilat, northern Red Sea

The lack of population dynamic information for most species of stony corals is due in part to their complicated life histories that may include fission, fusion and partial mortality of colonies, leading to an uncoupling of coral age and size. However, some reef-building corals may produce compact upright or free-living individuals in which the above processes rarely occur, or are clearly detectable. In some of these corals, individual age may be determined from size, and standard growth and population dynamic models may be applied to gain an accurate picture of their life history. We measured long-term growth rates (up to 2.5 years) of individuals of the free-living mushroom coral Fungia granulosa Klunzinger, 1879 at Eilat, northern Red Sea, and determined the size structure of a population on the shallow reef slope. We then applied growth and population models to the data to obtain estimates of coral age, mortality rate, and life expectancy in members of this species. In the field, few F. granulosa polyps suffered partial mortality of >10% of their tissues. Thus, the majority of polyps grew isometrically and determinately, virtually ceasing growth by about 30-40 years of age. Coral ages as revealed by skeletal growth rings were similar to those estimated from a growth curve based on field data. The frequency of individuals in each age class on the reef slope decreased exponentially with coral age, indicating high mortality rates when corals were young. The maximum coral age observed in the field population (31 years) was similar to that estimated by application of a population dynamic model (30 years). Calculated rates of growth, mortality and life expectancy for F. granulosa were within the range of those known for other stony corals. Our results reveal a young, dynamic population of this species on Eilat reefs, with high turnover rates and short lifespans. Such information is important for understanding recovery of coral reefs from disturbances, and for application to the management of commercially exploited coral populations.     

Analysis of mortality metrics associated with a comprehensive range of disorders in Denmark, 2000 to 2018: A population-based cohort study

BackgroundThe provision of different types of mortality metrics (e.g., mortality rate ratios [MRRs] and life expectancy) allows the research community to access a more informative set of health metrics. The aim of this study was to provide a panel of mortality metrics associated with a comprehensive range of disorders and to design a web page to visualize all results.Methods and findingsIn a population-based cohort of all 7,378,598 persons living in Denmark at some point between 2000 and 2018, we identified individuals diagnosed at hospitals with 1,803 specific categories of disorders through the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10) in the National Patient Register. Information on date and cause of death was obtained from the Registry of Causes of Death. For each of the disorders, a panel of epidemiological and mortality metrics was estimated, including incidence rates, age-of-onset distributions, MRRs, and differences in life expectancy (estimated as life years lost [LYLs]). Additionally, we examined models that adjusted for measures of air pollution to explore potential associations with MRRs. We focus on 39 general medical conditions to simplify the presentation of results, which cover 10 broad categories: circulatory, endocrine, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, urogenital, musculoskeletal, hematologic, mental, and neurologic conditions and cancer. A total of 3,676,694 males and 3,701,904 females were followed up for 101.7 million person-years. During the 19-year follow-up period, 1,034,273 persons (14.0%) died. For 37 of the 39 selected medical conditions, mortality rates were larger and life expectancy shorter compared to the Danish general population. For these 37 disorders, MRRs ranged from 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09 to 1.10) for vision problems to 7.85 (7.77 to 7.93) for chronic liver disease, while LYLs ranged from 0.31 (0.14 to 0.47) years (approximately 16 weeks) for allergy to 17.05 (16.95 to 17.15) years for chronic liver disease. Adjustment for air pollution had very little impact on the estimates; however, a limitation of the study is the possibility that the association between the different disorders and mortality could be explained by other underlying factors associated with both the disorder and mortality.ConclusionsIn this study, we show estimates of incidence, age of onset, age of death, and mortality metrics (both MRRs and LYLs) for a comprehensive range of disorders. The interactive data visualization site (https://nbepi.com/atlas) allows more fine-grained analysis of the link between a range of disorders and key mortality estimates.

In a population-based study, Oleguer Plana-Ripoll and colleagues report on and develop an online resource to study mortality metrics and life expectancy associated with different health conditions among individuals living in Denmark.     

Are Global and Regional Improvements in Life Expectancy and in Child,Adult and Senior Survival Slowing?

Improvements in life expectancy have been considerable over the past hundred years. Forecasters have taken to applying historical trends under an assumption of continuing improvements in life expectancy in the future. A linear mixed effects model was used to estimate the trends in global and regional rates of improvements in life expectancy, child, adult, and senior survival, in 166 countries between 1950 and 2010. Global improvements in life expectancy, including both child and adult survival rates, decelerated significantly over the study period. Overall life expectancy gains were estimated to have declined from 5.9 to 4.0 months per year for a mean deceleration of -0.07 months/year²; annual child survival gains declined from 4.4 to 1.6 deaths averted per 1000 for a mean deceleration of -0.06 deaths/1000/year²; adult survival gains were estimated to decline from 4.8 to 3.7 deaths averted per 1000 per year for a mean deceleration of -0.08 deaths/1000/year². Senior survival gains however increased from 2.4 to 4.2 deaths averted per 1000 per year for an acceleration of 0.03 deaths/1000/year². Regional variation in the four measures was substantial. The rates of global improvements in life expectancy, child survival, and adult survival have declined since 1950 despite an increase in the rate of improvements among seniors. We postulate that low-cost innovation, related to the last half-century progress in health–primarily devoted to children and middle age, is reaping diminishing returns on its investments. Trends are uneven across regions and measures, which may be due in part to the state of epidemiological transition between countries and regions and disparities in the diffusion of innovation, accessible only in high-income countries where life expectancy is already highest.     

A divergent pattern of the sex difference in life expectancy: Sweden and Japan, early 1970s-late 1990s

For most of the 20th century the sex gap in life expectancy in the industrialized countries has widened in favor of women. By the early 1980s a reversal in the long-term pattern of this differential had occurred in some countries, where it reached a maximum and thereafter followed a declining trend. Of particular interest to the present investigation is the anomalous experience of Japan, where unlike other high-income countries the female advantage in life expectancy has been expanding. We contrast the case of Japan with that of Sweden, where, like many other high-income nations, the sex differential in longevity has been narrowing in recent years. We observe that in Sweden, until the early 1980s, the sex gap in life expectancy (female-male) exceeded that of Japan; but this situation reversed in subsequent periods, when the Swedish differential narrowed and that of Japan widened. A decomposition analysis indicates that these divergent patterns since 1980 have resulted mainly from larger than expected reductions in male mortality in Sweden due to heart disease and from accidents and violence, lung cancer and "other" cancers. In Japan, death rates for men and women from heart disease--which is a leading cause of death--have tended to decline more or less at the same pace since the early 1980s; and with regard to lung cancer, and "other" neoplasms, male death rates in Japan have been rising while those of women have either declined or risen more slowly. Moreover, during the 1990s, male and female suicide rates rose in Japan, but the rates for men went up faster. Altogether, the net effect of these divergent mortality trends for men and women in Japan underlie much of the observed widening of its sex differential in longevity in recent years.