Seasonal variation and time trends of deaths from asthma in England and Wales 1960-82.

Monthly trends in deaths attributed to asthma in the 5-34 year age group were examined for England and Wales over the period 1960-82. Deaths were most frequent in the third quarter (July to September) and peaked in August. Analysis of the 1970-82 period showed that this variation was present in the three constituent age groups 5-14, 15-24, and 25-34 but was most pronounced in the 5-14 year olds.     

Mortality from asthma: a new epidemic in New Zealand

Trends in mortality attributed to asthma in the 5-34-year age group were examined in New Zealand, Australia, England and Wales, the United States, Canada, and West Germany for the years 1959-79. An epidemic of deaths from asthma occurred in the mid-1960s in New Zealand, Australia, and England and Wales but not in the other countries. In Australia and England and Wales the death rate quickly returned to pre-epidemic levels, but in New Zealand the decline in mortality was slow, and by 1974 the death rate was still almost double the pre-epidemic level. Of great concern was an abrupt increase in reported deaths from asthma in New Zealand after 1976 with the mortality rate during 1977-9 being greater than during the previous epidemic. In contrast, asthma mortality had remained relatively stable in the other populations.The new epidemic in New Zealand was investigated and appeared to be real. It could not be explained by changes in the classification of deaths from asthma, inaccuracies in death certification, or changes in diagnostic fashions. The most likely explanation appeared to be related to the management of asthma in New Zealand, and this is being investigated.     

Excess years of life lost to COVID-19 and other causes of death by sex,neighbourhood deprivation,and region in England and Wales during 2020: A registry-based study

BackgroundDeaths in the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Wales were unevenly distributed socioeconomically and geographically. However, the full scale of inequalities may have been underestimated to date, as most measures of excess mortality do not adequately account for varying age profiles of deaths between social groups. We measured years of life lost (YLL) attributable to the pandemic, directly or indirectly, comparing mortality across geographic and socioeconomic groups.Methods and findingsWe used national mortality registers in England and Wales, from 27 December 2014 until 25 December 2020, covering 3,265,937 deaths. YLLs (main outcome) were calculated using 2019 single year sex-specific life tables for England and Wales. Interrupted time-series analyses, with panel time-series models, were used to estimate expected YLL by sex, geographical region, and deprivation quintile between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020 by cause: direct deaths (COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases), cardiovascular disease and diabetes, cancer, and other indirect deaths (all other causes). Excess YLL during the pandemic period were calculated by subtracting observed from expected values. Additional analyses focused on excess deaths for region and deprivation strata, by age-group. Between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020, there were an estimated 763,550 (95% CI: 696,826 to 830,273) excess YLL in England and Wales, equivalent to a 15% (95% CI: 14 to 16) increase in YLL compared to the equivalent time period in 2019. There was a strong deprivation gradient in all-cause excess YLL, with rates per 100,000 population ranging from 916 (95% CI: 820 to 1,012) for the least deprived quintile to 1,645 (95% CI: 1,472 to 1,819) for the most deprived. The differences in excess YLL between deprivation quintiles were greatest in younger age groups; for all-cause deaths, a mean of 9.1 years per death (95% CI: 8.2 to 10.0) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 10.8 (95% CI: 10.0 to 11.6) in the most deprived; for COVID-19 and other respiratory deaths, a mean of 8.9 years per death (95% CI: 8.7 to 9.1) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 11.2 (95% CI: 11.0 to 11.5) in the most deprived. For all-cause mortality, estimated deaths in the most deprived compared to the most affluent areas were much higher in younger age groups, but similar for those aged 85 or over. There was marked variability in both all-cause and direct excess YLL by region, with the highest rates in the North West. Limitations include the quasi-experimental nature of the research design and the requirement for accurate and timely recording.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed strong socioeconomic and geographical health inequalities in YLL, during the first calendar year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These were in line with long-standing existing inequalities in England and Wales, with the most deprived areas reporting the largest numbers in potential YLL.

In a registry-based study, Evangelos Kontopantelis and colleagues examine the excess years of life lost to COVID-19 and other causes of death by sex, neighbourhood deprivation and region in England & Wales during 2020.     

Influence of changing travel patterns on child death rates from injury: trend analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To examine trends in child mortality from unintentional injury between 1985 and 1992 and to find how changes in modes of travel contributed to these trends. DESIGN: Poisson regression modelling using data from death certificates, censuses, and national travel surveys. SETTING: England and Wales. SUBJECTS: Resident children aged 0-14. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths from unintentional injury and poisoning. RESULTS: Child deaths from injury declined by 34% (95% confidence interval 28% to 40%) per 100,000 population between 1985 and 1992. Substantial decreases in each of the leading causes of death from injury contributed to this overall decline. On average, children walked and cycled less distance and travelled substantially more miles by car in 1992 compared with 1985. Deaths from road traffic accidents declined for pedestrians by 24% per mile walked and for cyclists by 20% per mile cycled, substantially less than the declines per 100,000 population of 37% and 38% respectively. In contrast, deaths of occupants of motor vehicles declined by 42% per mile travelled by car compared with a 21% decline per 100,000 population. CONCLUSIONS: If trends in child mortality from injury continue the government''s target to reduce the rate by 33% by the year 2005 will be achieved. A substantial proportion of the decline in pedestrian traffic and pedal cycling deaths, however, seems to have been achieved at the expense of children''s walking and cycling activities. Changes in travel patterns may exact a considerable price in terms of future health problems.     

Ethnic differences in general practitioner consultations.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the levels of general practitioner consultations among the different ethnic groups resident in Britain. DESIGN--The study was based on the British general household surveys of 1983-5 and included 63,966 people aged 0-64. Odds ratios were derived for consultation by ethnic group by using logistic regression analysis adjusting for age and socioeconomic group. SETTING--The results relate to people living in private households in England, Scotland, and Wales. RESULTS--After adjustment for age and socioeconomic class, consultation among adults aged 16-64 was highest among people of Pakistani origin with odds ratios of 2.82 (95% confidence interval 1.86 to 4.28) for men and 1.85 (1.22 to 2.81) for women. Significantly higher consultations were also seen for men of West Indian and Indian origin (odds ratios 1.65 and 1.53 respectively). Ethnic differences were greatest at ages 45-64, when consultation rates in people of Pakistani, Indian, and West Indian origin were much higher in both sexes compared with white people. CONCLUSIONS--The ethnic composition of inner cities is likely to influence the workload and case mix of general practitioners working in these areas.     

Social class differences in infant mortality in Sweden: comparison with England and Wales.

OBJECTIVES--To investigate social class differences in infant mortality in Sweden in the mid-1980s and to compare their magnitude with that of those found in England and Wales. DESIGN--Analysis of risk of infant death by social class in aggregated routine data for the mid-1980s, which included the linkage of Swedish births to the 1985 census. SETTING--Sweden and England and Wales. SUBJECTS--All live births in Sweden (1985-6) and England and Wales (1983-5) and corresponding infant deaths were analysed. The Swedish data were coded to the British registrar general''s social class schema. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Risk of death in the neonatal and postneonatal period. RESULTS--Taking the non-manual classes as the reference group, in the neonatal period in Sweden the manual social classes had a relative risk for mortality of 1.20 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.43) and those not classified into a social class a relative risk of 1.08 (0.88 to 1.33). In the postneonatal period the equivalent relative risks were 1.38 (1.08 to 1.77) for manual classes and 2.14 (1.65 to 2.79) for the residual; these are similar to those for England and Wales (1.43 (1.36 to 1.51) for manual classes, 2.62 (2.45 to 2.81) for the residual). CONCLUSIONS--The existence of an equitable health care system and a strong social welfare policy in Sweden has not eliminated inequalities in post-neonatal mortality. Furthermore, the very low risk of infant death in the Swedish non-manual group (4.8/1000 live births) represents a target towards which public health interventions should aim. If this rate prevailed in England and Wales, 63% of postneonatal deaths would be avoided.     

Hospital Admission and Absence from Work Attributed to Asthma

Study of a 10% sample of hospital admissions for asthma in England and Wales shows that in each age and sex group deaths have increased by at least a half between 1959 and 1964, while for males aged 15–44 years they have doubled. The number of deaths in hospital has risen in a similar way, and hence the hospital fatality rate has not changed over this period. Since study of certified absences from work has shown no comparable increase, it is suggested that the increase has occurred in the number of attacks of severe asthma requiring admission to hospital.     

Rising mortality from cryptogenic fibrosing alveolitis.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the pattern of mortality ascribed to cryptogenic fibrosing alveolitis and to identify factors that might be important in the aetiology of the disease; and to assess the validity of death certification of the disease. DESIGN--A retrospective examination of mortality ascribed to cryptogenic fibrosing alveolitis in England and Wales between 1979 and 1988 with analysis, by multiple logistic regression, of independent effects of age, sex, region of residence, and social class as indicated by occupation on data for 1979-87; also a retrospective review of hospital records of patients certified as having died of cryptogenic fibrosing alveolitis in Nottingham and of the certified cause of death of patients known to have had the disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Time trends in mortality nationally; effects on mortality of age, sex, and region of residence; validity of death certification in Nottingham. RESULTS--The annual number of deaths ascribed to cryptogenic fibrosing alveolitis doubled from 336 in 1979 to 702 in 1988, the increase occurring mainly at ages over 65. Mortality standardised for age for both sexes likewise increased steadily over the period. Deaths due to cryptogenic fibrosing alveolitis were commoner in men (odds ratio 2.24, 95% confidence interval 2.11 to 2.33) and increased substantially with age, being 7.84 (7.24 to 8.49) times higher in subjects aged much greater than 75 than those aged 45-64. Odds ratios of death due to cryptogenic fibrosing alveolitis adjusted for age and sex were increased in the traditionally industrialised central areas of England and Wales (p less than 0.02, maximum odds ratio between regions 1.25), but no significant increase in odds of death was found for manual occupations. Of 23 people whose deaths were registered in Nottingham as having been due to cryptogenic fibrosing alveolitis, 19 were ascertained from clinical records to have had the disease. Only 17 of 45 patients known to have had cryptogenic fibrosing alveolitis in life were recorded as having died from the disease. CONCLUSIONS--The diagnostic accuracy of death certification of cryptogenic fibrosing alveolitis is high, but the number of deaths recorded as being due to the disease may underestimate the number of patients dying with the disease by up to half. Mortality due to the disease is increasing, and the male predominance and regional differences in mortality suggest that environmental factors are important in its aetiology.     

Child Deaths Due to Injury in the Four UK Countries: A Time Trends Study from 1980 to 2010

Background

Injuries are an increasingly important cause of death in children worldwide, yet injury mortality is highly preventable. Determining patterns and trends in child injury mortality can identify groups at particularly high risk. We compare trends in child deaths due to injury in four UK countries, between 1980 and 2010.

Methods

We obtained information from death certificates on all deaths occurring between 1980 and 2010 in children aged 28 days to 18 years and resident in England, Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. Injury deaths were defined by an external cause code recorded as the underlying cause of death. Injury mortality rates were analysed by type of injury, country of residence, age group, sex and time period.

Results

Child mortality due to injury has declined in all countries of the UK. England consistently experienced the lowest mortality rate throughout the study period. For children aged 10 to 18 years, differences between countries in mortality rates increased during the study period. Inter-country differences were largest for boys aged 10 to 18 years with mortality rate ratios of 1.38 (95% confidence interval 1.16, 1.64) for Wales, 1.68 (1.48, 1.91) for Scotland and 1.81 (1.50, 2.18) for Northern Ireland compared with England (the baseline) in 2006–10. The decline in mortality due to injury was accounted for by a decline in unintentional injuries. For older children, no declines were observed for deaths caused by self-harm, by assault or from undetermined intent in any UK country.

Conclusion

Whilst child deaths from injury have declined in all four UK countries, substantial differences in mortality rates remain between countries, particularly for older boys. This group stands to gain most from policy interventions to reduce deaths from injury in children.     

Deaths from abuse of volatile substances: a national epidemiological study.

A survey of the United Kingdom detected 282 deaths from abuse of volatile substances during 1971-83. Deaths appeared to have increased in the most recent years, reaching 80 in 1983. Age at death ranged from 11 to 76 years but most deaths (72%) occurred under 20 years. Ninety five per cent of the subjects were male, and in 1983 deaths from volatile substance abuse accounted for 2% of all deaths in males aged 10-19. All areas of the United Kingdom were affected, the rates being highest in Scotland and urban areas. All social classes were affected, though rates were highest in social class V and the armed forces. The volatile substances abused were gas fuels (24%), mainly butane; aerosol sprays (17%); solvents in glues (27%); and other volatile substances, such as cleaning agents (31%). In 51% of cases death was attributed to the direct toxic effects of the substance abused, in 21% to plastic bag asphyxia, in 18% to inhalation of stomach contents, and in 11% to trauma. Deaths associated with the abuse of glues were more likely to be traumatic, but all substances appeared capable of killing directly by their toxic effects, probably by a cardiac mechanism. Only a small proportion of deaths (6%) were due to the abuse of glues among children under 16; hence current attempts to limit access of children to glues will probably have little impact on overall mortality.     

Place and Cause of Death in Centenarians: A Population-Based Observational Study in England, 2001 to 2010

Background

Centenarians are a rapidly growing demographic group worldwide, yet their health and social care needs are seldom considered. This study aims to examine trends in place of death and associations for centenarians in England over 10 years to consider policy implications of extreme longevity.

Methods and Findings

This is a population-based observational study using death registration data linked with area-level indices of multiple deprivations for people aged ≥100 years who died 2001 to 2010 in England, compared with those dying at ages 80-99. We used linear regression to examine the time trends in number of deaths and place of death, and Poisson regression to evaluate factors associated with centenarians’ place of death. The cohort totalled 35,867 people with a median age at death of 101 years (range: 100–115 years). Centenarian deaths increased 56% (95% CI 53.8%–57.4%) in 10 years. Most died in a care home with (26.7%, 95% CI 26.3%–27.2%) or without nursing (34.5%, 95% CI 34.0%–35.0%) or in hospital (27.2%, 95% CI 26.7%–27.6%). The proportion of deaths in nursing homes decreased over 10 years (−0.36% annually, 95% CI −0.63% to −0.09%, p = 0.014), while hospital deaths changed little (0.25% annually, 95% CI −0.06% to 0.57%, p = 0.09). Dying with frailty was common with “old age” stated in 75.6% of death certifications. Centenarians were more likely to die of pneumonia (e.g., 17.7% [95% CI 17.3%–18.1%] versus 6.0% [5.9%–6.0%] for those aged 80–84 years) and old age/frailty (28.1% [27.6%–28.5%] versus 0.9% [0.9%–0.9%] for those aged 80–84 years) and less likely to die of cancer (4.4% [4.2%–4.6%] versus 24.5% [24.6%–25.4%] for those aged 80–84 years) and ischemic heart disease (8.6% [8.3%–8.9%] versus 19.0% [18.9%–19.0%] for those aged 80–84 years) than were younger elderly patients. More care home beds available per 1,000 population were associated with fewer deaths in hospital (PR 0.98, 95% CI 0.98–0.99, p<0.001).

Conclusions

Centenarians are more likely to have causes of death certified as pneumonia and frailty and less likely to have causes of death of cancer or ischemic heart disease, compared with younger elderly patients. To reduce reliance on hospital care at the end of life requires recognition of centenarians’ increased likelihood to “acute” decline, notably from pneumonia, and wider provision of anticipatory care to enable people to remain in their usual residence, and increasing care home bed capacity. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Epidemiology of chickenpox in England and Wales, 1967-85

Routine sources of data on chickenpox morbidity and mortality in England and Wales were reviewed for 1967-85. Only two epidemics occurred, one in 1967 and one in 1980, both of which were immediately followed by two to three years of low incidence. The age distribution of the disease appears to be changing, with more cases now being reported in children aged 0-4 years. The number of deaths in adults have, however, increased, particularly those deaths that are associated with pneumonia and immunosuppression. At present in England and Wales more deaths are attributed to chickenpox than to whooping cough and mumps.Widespread use of selective immunisation against chickenpox might be justified in England and Wales, but before routine immunisation of the child population can be considered special surveys to determine the incidence and severity of chickenpox and the effect of the vaccine on the subsequent development of herpes zoster are needed as well as cost-benefit studies of immunisation.     

Circumstances of death from asthma.

Mortality from asthma in England and Wales has remained unchanged for at least 20 years, even in the age group 15-44. Yet in those 20 years "modern" drugs have been introduced for the treatment of asthma, such as beta 2 agonist bronchodilators and corticosteroids. Why do patients still die? Detailed review of the circumstances of 90 deaths from asthma showed that a few were inevitable but that in the remainder four main sets of circumstances in the fatal attack contributed to the death. These were, firstly, the patient''s failure to recognise the severity of the asthma; secondly, very rapid progress in the severity of the attack; thirdly, misjudgment in the management of the attack; and, fourthly, delay from many causes. Patients admitted to hospital with severe acute asthma usually survive. Those at risk of a life threatening attack should be identified and taught to monitor the severity and progress of their asthma objectively. Their direct admission to hospital should be facilitated.     

Observations on recent increase in mortality from asthma.

The mortality attributed to asthma has increased annually in England and Wales from 1960 to 1965. The increase is more pronounced at ages 5 to 34 years than at older ages and is most pronounced at ages 10 to 14 years. In this last age group the mortality increased nearly eight times in seven years, and in 1966 asthma accounted for 7% of all deaths. No comparable increase has been observed in any other country, but smaller increases at ages 10 to 19 years have been observed in Australasia, Japan, western Europe, and the United States. There is no evidence to suggest that there has been any change in diagnostic habits, certification of deaths, or methods of classification which could account for the increase in Great Britain, and it is concluded that the increase is real. General practitioners'' records provide no evidence of an increase in prevalence and it seems probable that there has been an increase in case fatality. No environmental hazards are known which could have increased the severity of the disease, and the possibility has to be considered that the increase may be due to new methods of treatment. Corticosteroids have been used increasingly since 1952, and in Great Britain the use of pressurized aerosols containing sympathomimetics has increased rapidly since 1960.     

Deaths in children with a diagnosis of acute appendicitis in England and Wales 1980-4.

Thirty five children died of acute appendicitis in England and Wales in 1980-4 compared with 204 in 1963-7. Thirteen of the 35 deaths in 1980-4 took place at home or on the day of admission to hospital before operation and a further 18 on the day of operation or the first day after it. Thirty one of the children had peritonitis. A third of the deaths were in children aged 0-4 years, and the hospital fatality rate in this age group was one death in 320 cases compared with one death in 4760 cases in children aged 5-14 years. The fall in the number of deaths between the 1960s and the 1980s was due to improvements in medical care, a reduction in the incidence of appendicitis, and changes in the age structure of the child population. Difficulty and delay in diagnosis and inadequate intravenous therapy are now the main factors contributing to death.     

Reproductive mortality.

The transfer from traditional to modern methods of contraception in recent decades has been accompanied by a transfer of deaths from complications of pregnancy to deaths from complications of the modern contraceptive methods. In 1975, for example, it is estimated that there were more deaths at ages 25-44 years in England and Wales from adverse effects of oral contraceptive use than from all complications of pregnancy, delivery, and the puerperium combined. Thus maternal mortality is no longer an adequate indicator of the deaths associated with reproduction in the community. An alternative measure, the reproductive mortality rate should be used, which includes deaths from complications of contraceptive use as well as those from complications of pregnancy or abortion. The reproductive mortality rate in England and Wales seems to have declined continuously since 1950 for women aged 25-34. But after 1960 it increased for women aged 35-44, because of the higher mortality associated with oral contraceptive use in this age group.     

UK legislation on analgesic packs: before and after study of long term effect on poisonings

Objective To evaluate the long term effect of legislation limiting the size of packs of analgesics sold over the counter.Design Before and after study.Setting Suicides in England and Wales, data from six liver units in England and Scotland and five general hospitals in England, and UK data on sales of analgesics, between September 1993 and September 2002.Data sources Office for National Statistics; six liver units in England and Scotland; monitoring systems in general hospitals in Oxford, Manchester, and Derby; and Intercontinental Medical Statistics Health UK.Main outcome measures Deaths by suicidal overdose with paracetamol, salicylates, or ibuprofen; numbers of patients admitted to liver units, listed for liver transplant, and undergoing transplantations for paracetamol induced hepatotoxicity; non-fatal self poisonings with analgesics and numbers of tablets taken; and sales figures for analgesics.Results Suicidal deaths from paracetamol and salicylates were reduced by 22% (95% confidence interval 11% to 32%) in the year after the change in legislation on 16 September 1998, and this reduction persisted in the next two years. Liver unit admissions and liver transplants for paracetamol induced hepatotoxicity were reduced by around 30% in the four years after the legislation. Numbers of paracetamol and salicylate tablets in non-fatal overdoses were reduced in the three years after the legislation. Large overdoses were reduced by 20% (9% to 29%) for paracetamol and by 39% (14% to 57%) for salicylates in the second and third years after the legislation. Ibuprofen overdoses increased after the legislation, but with little or no effect on deaths.Conclusion Legislation restricting pack sizes of analgesics in the United Kingdom has been beneficial. A further reduction in pack sizes could prevent more deaths.     

Ornithological Surveys of Nature Reserves, 1954

A survey of Hen Harrier winter roosts traced 202 sites in Britain to the end of 1985/86 winter, and 12 in Ireland. Communal roosting had been recorded at more than 90% of sites, and 43% were known to be used every winter. Of reported sites 39% were in E England, where coverage was undoubtedly more comprehensive. The majority of sites in England were reported to have been discovered since the mid 1970s. Hen Harriers almost invariably roosted amongst rank ground vegetation, in a variety of open habitats, and 28% of sites were on d rtl ground. Most sites were at low altitudes, but some had been found up to 427 m above sea level. Co-ordinated counts at roosts recorded maximum overall numbers at mid-winter in both 1983/84 and 1984/85, although the pattern of occupancy varied between regions. No estimate could be made of the sizes of the winter populations in Scotland, Ireland and Wales, but extrapolation of counts to estimate the numbers wintering in England indicated populations which peaked at about 400 birds in 1983/84 and 1984/85. Roosts in western Britain held a higher proportion of grey males than in the east. Ringing recoveries indicate that Hen Harriers wintering in England have mixed origins.     

Asthma mortality: comparison between New Zealand and England.

Causes for the high mortality from asthma in New Zealand were investigated by comparing deaths from asthma in caucasian subjects aged 15-64 in New Zealand with those from asthma in the same age group in two regions in England. There were no significant differences in the accuracy of death certification. The verified asthma mortality in New Zealand (4.2/100,000) was over twice that in England. Many characteristics of patients and management, including poor compliance with treatment and deficiencies in long term and emergency care, were qualitatively similar in the two countries. New Zealand had an apparently higher rate of non-preventable deaths from asthma, suggesting a greater severity of asthma in New Zealand. In both countries, however, most deaths were associated with poor assessment, underestimation of severity and inappropriate treatment (over-reliance on bronchodilators and underuse of systemic corticosteroids), and delays in obtaining help. A greater frequency of some of these deficiencies in management remains a possible additional explanation for part of the excess mortality in New Zealand.