Trends and Determinants of Antiretroviral Therapy Patient Monitoring Practices in Kenya and Uganda

Introduction

Patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) require routine monitoring to track response to treatment and assess for treatment failure. This study aims to identify gaps in monitoring practices in Kenya and Uganda.

Methods

We conducted a systematic retrospective chart review of adults who initiated ART between 2007 and 2012. We assessed the availability of baseline measurements (CD4 count, weight, and WHO stage) and ongoing CD4 and weight monitoring according to national guidelines in place at the time. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to analyze facility and patient factors associated with meeting monitoring guidelines.

Results

From 2007 to 2012, at least 88% of patients per year in Uganda had a recorded weight at initiation, while in Kenya there was a notable increase from 69% to 90%. Patients with a documented baseline CD4 count increased from 69% to about 80% in both countries. In 2012, 83% and 86% of established patients received the recommended quarterly weight monitoring in Kenya and Uganda, respectively, while semiannual CD4 monitoring was less common (49% in Kenya and 38% in Uganda). Initiating at a more advanced WHO stage was associated with a lower odds of baseline CD4 testing. On-site CD4 analysis capacity was associated with increased odds of CD4 testing at baseline and in the future.

Discussion

Substantial gaps were noted in ongoing CD4 monitoring of patients on ART. Although guidelines have since changed, limited laboratory capacity is likely to remain a significant issue in monitoring patients on ART, with important implications for ensuring quality care.     

Evaluation of Clinical and Immunological Markers for Predicting Virological Failure in a HIV/AIDS Treatment Cohort in Busia,Kenya

Background

In resource-limited settings where viral load (VL) monitoring is scarce or unavailable, clinicians must use immunological and clinical criteria to define HIV virological treatment failure. This study examined the performance of World Health Organization (WHO) clinical and immunological failure criteria in predicting virological failure in HIV patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods

In a HIV/AIDS program in Busia District Hospital, Kenya, a retrospective, cross-sectional cohort analysis was performed in April 2008 for all adult patients (>18 years old) on ART for ≥12 months, treatment-naive at ART start, attending the clinic at least once in last 6 months, and who had given informed consent. Treatment failure was assessed per WHO clinical (disease stage 3 or 4) and immunological (CD4 cell count) criteria, and compared with virological failure (VL >5,000 copies/mL).

Results

Of 926 patients, 123 (13.3%) had clinically defined treatment failure, 53 (5.7%) immunologically defined failure, and 55 (6.0%) virological failure. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of both clinical and immunological criteria (combined) in predicting virological failure were 36.4%, 83.5%, 12.3%, and 95.4%, respectively.

Conclusions

In this analysis, clinical and immunological criteria were found to perform relatively poorly in predicting virological failure of ART. VL monitoring and new algorithms for assessing clinical or immunological treatment failure, as well as improved adherence strategies, are required in ART programs in resource-limited settings.     

HIV-1 tropism and CD4 T lymphocyte recovery in a prospective cohort of patients initiating HAART in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil

While human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 chemokine co-receptors 5 tropism and the GWGR motif in the envelope third variable region (V3 loop) have been associated with a slower disease progression, their influence on antiretroviral response remains unclear. The impact of baseline V3 characteristics on treatment response was evaluated in a randomised, double blind, prospective cohort study with patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy with lopinavir or efavirenz plus azithothymidine/3TC (1:1) over 48 weeks. Similar virological and immunological responses were observed for both treatment regimens. The 43 individuals had a mean baseline CD4 T cell count of 119 cells/mm(3) [standard deviation (SD) = 99] and a mean viral load of 5.09 log(10) copies/mL (SD = 0.49). The GWGR motif was not associated with a CD4 T cell response, but predicted R5 tropism by the geno2pheno([clinical20%]) algorithm correlated with higher CD4 T cell levels at all monitoring points (p < 0.05). Moreover, higher false-positive rates (FPR) values from this analysis revealed a strong correlation with CD4 T cell recovery (p < 0.0001). Transmitted drug resistance mutations, documented in 3/41 (7.3%) cases, were unrelated to the assigned antiretroviral regimen and had no impact on patient outcomes. In conclusion, na?ve HIV-1 R5 infected patients exhibited higher CD4 T cell counts at baseline; this difference was sustained throughout therapy. The geno2pheno([clinical]) option FPR positively correlated with CD4 T cell gain and may be useful in predicting CD4 T cell recovery.     

CD4 Cell Count Trends after Commencement of Antiretroviral Therapy among HIV-Infected Patients in Tigray,Northern Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study

Background

The rate and extent of CD4 cell recovery varies widely among HIV-infected patients with different baseline CD4 cell count strata. The objective of the study was to assess trends in CD4 cell counts in HIV-infected patients after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted by reviewing medical records of HIV patients who received antiretroviral treatment at twenty health centers in Tigray region during 2008–2012. Multi-stage cluster sampling technique was employed to collect data, and the data were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0 software.

Results

The median change from baseline to the most recent CD4 cell count was +292 cells/μl. By 5 years, the overall median (inter-quartile range, IQR) CD4 cell count was 444(263-557) cells/μl while the median (IQR) CD4 cell count was 342(246-580) cells/μl among patients with baseline CD4 cell counts ≤200 cells/μl, 500(241-557) cells/μl among those with baseline CD4 cell counts of 201–350 cells/μl, and 652(537-767) cells/μl among those with baseline CD4 cell counts >350 cells/μl. Higher baseline CD4 cell counts and being male were independently associated with the risk of immunological non-response at 12 months. Furthermore, it was also investigated that these factors were significant predictors of subsequent CD4 cell recovery.

Conclusions

Patients with higher baseline CD4 cell stratum returned to normal CD4 Cell counts though they had an increased risk of immunological non-response at 12 months compared to those with the least baseline CD4 cell stratum. The findings suggest that consideration be given to initiation of HAART at a CD4 cell count >350 cells/μl to achieve better immune recovery, and to HIV-infected male patients to improve their health seeking behavior.     

Hepatitis B and C Co-Infection in HIV Patients from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database: Analysis of Risk Factors and Survival

Background

We assessed the effects of hepatitis B (HBV) or hepatitis C (HCV) co-infection on outcomes of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-infected patients enrolled in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), a multi-center cohort of HIV-infected patients in the Asia-Pacific region.

Methods

Patients testing HBs antigen (Ag) or HCV antibody (Ab) positive within enrollment into TAHOD were considered HBV or HCV co-infected. Factors associated with HBV and/or HCV co-infection were assessed by logistic regression models. Factors associated with post-ART HIV immunological response (CD4 change after six months) and virological response (HIV RNA <400 copies/ml after 12 months) were also determined. Survival was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier method and log rank test.

Results

A total of 7,455 subjects were recruited by December 2012. Of patients tested, 591/5656 (10.4%) were HBsAg positive, 794/5215 (15.2%) were HCVAb positive, and 88/4966 (1.8%) were positive for both markers. In multivariate analysis, HCV co-infection, age, route of HIV infection, baseline CD4 count, baseline HIV RNA, and HIV-1 subtype were associated with immunological recovery. Age, route of HIV infection, baseline CD4 count, baseline HIV RNA, ART regimen, prior ART and HIV-1 subtype, but not HBV or HCV co-infection, affected HIV RNA suppression. Risk factors affecting mortality included HCV co-infection, age, CDC stage, baseline CD4 count, baseline HIV RNA and prior mono/dual ART. Shortest survival was seen in subjects who were both HBV- and HCV-positive.

Conclusion

In this Asian cohort of HIV-infected patients, HCV co-infection, but not HBV co-infection, was associated with lower CD4 cell recovery after ART and increased mortality.     

Treatment Effect and Drug-Resistant Mutations in Chinese AIDS Patients Switching to Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy

This study aimed to investigate treatment effect, drug resistance changes, and their influencing factors in Chinese AIDS patients after switching to second-line antiretroviral therapy, and thus provide important information for the scale-up of second-line antiretroviral treatment in China. In Weishi county of Henan province, where second-line antiretroviral therapy was introduced early in China, 195 AIDS patients were enrolled, of which 127 patients met the switching criterion and 68 patients volunteered to switch drugs without meeting the switching criterion. CD4 cell count, viral load and in-house PCR genotyping for drug resistance were measured for all 195 subjects before drug switch, as well as 6 and 12 months after drug switch. Extensive secondary mutations to the protease inhibitor were observed, which suggested that long-term drug resistance surveillance is necessary for patients switching to second-line antiretroviral therapy. Multidrug resistance and cross-resistance were extensive in Chinese patients that experienced first-line treatment failure. Patients need timely CD4 count, viral load, and drug resistance monitoring in order to switch to second-line therapy under conditions of relatively good immunity and low viral duplication levels.     

Development and validation of decision rules to guide frequency of monitoring CD4 cell count in HIV-1 infection before starting antiretroviral therapy

Background

Although CD4 cell count monitoring is used to decide when to start antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection, there are no evidence-based recommendations regarding its optimal frequency. It is common practice to monitor every 3 to 6 months, often coupled with viral load monitoring. We developed rules to guide frequency of CD4 cell count monitoring in HIV infection before starting antiretroviral therapy, which we validated retrospectively in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We built up two prediction rules (“Snap-shot rule” for a single sample and “Track-shot rule” for multiple determinations) based on a systematic review of published longitudinal analyses of CD4 cell count trajectories. We applied the rules in 2608 untreated patients to classify their 18 061 CD4 counts as either justifiable or superfluous, according to their prior ≥5% or <5% chance of meeting predetermined thresholds for starting treatment. The percentage of measurements that both rules falsely deemed superfluous never exceeded 5%. Superfluous CD4 determinations represented 4%, 11%, and 39% of all actual determinations for treatment thresholds of 500, 350, and 200×10⁶/L, respectively. The Track-shot rule was only marginally superior to the Snap-shot rule. Both rules lose usefulness for CD4 counts coming near to treatment threshold.

Conclusions/Significance

Frequent CD4 count monitoring of patients with CD4 counts well above the threshold for initiating therapy is unlikely to identify patients who require therapy. It appears sufficient to measure CD4 cell count 1 year after a count >650 for a threshold of 200, >900 for 350, or >1150 for 500×10⁶/L, respectively. When CD4 counts fall below these limits, increased monitoring frequency becomes advisable. These rules offer guidance for efficient CD4 monitoring, particularly in resource-limited settings.     

The CD160+ CD8high cytotoxic T cell subset correlates with response to HAART in HIV-1+ patients

We investigated the circulating cytotoxic CD160+ CD8(high) subset in correlation to antiviral immunity and response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in HIV+ subjects. The study included 45 treatment-naive patients receiving HAART for 18 months, retrospectively defined as good (n=29) and transient (n=16) responders. HIV-specific CD8 T lymphocyte levels were measured by IFNgamma production in response to p17 Gag, in the presence of immobilized anti-CD160 mAb. We report a significantly increased baseline level of CD160+ CD8(high) subset in good therapy responders. CD160+ CD8(high) subset correlates with CD4+ T cell count, immune activation, and viral load. CD160+ CD8(high) lymphocytes contain a high amount of Granzyme B and include virus-specific T lymphocytes in HIV-1+ subjects. Co-stimulation through CD160 molecules enhances IFNgamma production in response to p17 Gag. Therefore, the CD160+ CD8(high) subset may be useful for monitoring of virus-specific cellular immunity and predicting response to antiretroviral therapy in chronic HIV-1 infection.     

Late Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Initiation Is Associated with Long-Term Persistence of Systemic Inflammation and Metabolic Abnormalities

Objectives

HIV-induced immunodeficiency is associated with metabolic abnormalities and systemic inflammation. We investigated the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on restoration of insulin sensitivity, markers of immune activation and inflammation.

Methods

Immunological, metabolic and inflammatory status was assessed at antiretroviral therapy initiation and three years later in 208 patients from the ANRS-COPANA cohort. Patients were compared according to their pre-ART CD4⁺ cell count (group 1: ≤ 200/mm³, n = 66 vs. group 2: > 200/mm³, n = 142).

Results

Median CD4⁺ cell count increased in both groups after 3 years of successful ART but remained significantly lower in group 1 than in group 2 (404 vs 572 cells/mm³). Triglyceride and insulin levels were higher or tended to be higher in group 1 than in group 2 at ART initiation (median: 1.32 vs 0.97 mmol/l, p = 0.04 and 7.6 vs 6.8 IU, p = 0.09, respectively) and remained higher after three years of ART (1.42 vs 1.16 mmol/L, p = 0.0009 and 8.9 vs 7.2 IU, p = 0.01). After adjustment for individual characteristics and antiretroviral therapy regimens (protease inhibitor (PI), zidovudine), insulin levels remained significantly higher in patients with low baseline CD4⁺ cell count. Baseline IL-6, sCD14 and sTNFR2 levels were higher in group 1 than in group 2. Most biomarkers of immune activation/inflammation declined during ART, but IL-6 and hsCRP levels remained higher in patients with low baseline CD4⁺ cell count than in the other patients (median are respectively 1.4 vs 1.1 pg/ml, p = 0.03 and 2.1 vs 1.3 mg/ml, p = 0.07).

Conclusion

After three years of successful ART, low pretreatment CD4⁺ T cell count remained associated with elevated insulin, triglyceride, IL-6 and hsCRP levels. These persistent metabolic and inflammatory abnormalities could contribute to an increased risk of cardiovascular and metabolic disease.     

Low Primary and Secondary HIV Drug-Resistance after 12 Months of Antiretroviral Therapy in Human Immune-Deficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1)-Infected Individuals from Kigali,Rwanda

Treatment outcomes of HIV patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Rwanda are scarcely documented. HIV viral load (VL) and HIV drug-resistance (HIVDR) outcomes at month 12 were determined in a prospective cohort study of antiretroviral–naïve HIV patients initiating first-line therapy in Kigali. Treatment response was monitored clinically and by regular CD4 counts and targeted HIV viral load (VL) to confirm drug failure. VL measurements and HIVDR genotyping were performed retrospectively on baseline and month 12 samples. One hundred and fifty-eight participants who completed their month 12 follow-up visit had VL data available at month 12. Most of them (88%) were virologically suppressed (VL≤1000 copies/mL) but 18 had virological failure (11%), which is in the range of WHO-suggested targets for HIVDR prevention. If only CD4 criteria had been used to classify treatment response, 26% of the participants would have been misclassified as treatment failure. Pre-therapy HIVDR was documented in 4 of 109 participants (3.6%) with an HIVDR genotyping results at baseline. Eight of 12 participants (66.7%) with virological failure and HIVDR genotyping results at month 12 were found to harbor mutation(s), mostly NNRTI resistance mutations, whereas 4 patients had no HIVDR mutations. Almost half (44%) of the participants initiated ART at CD4 count ≤200cell/µl and severe CD4 depletion at baseline (<50 cells/µl) was associated with virological treatment failure (p = 0.008).Although the findings may not be generalizable to all HIV patients in Rwanda, our data suggest that first-line ART regimen changes are currently not warranted. However, the accumulation of acquired HIVDR mutations in some participants underscores the need to reinforce HIVDR prevention strategies, such as increasing the availability and appropriate use of VL testing to monitor ART response, ensuring high quality adherence counseling, and promoting earlier identification of HIV patients and enrollment into HIV care and treatment programs.     

Emerging technologies for point-of-care CD4 T-lymphocyte counting

A CD4 T-lymphocyte count determines eligibility for antiretroviral therapy (ART) in patients recently diagnosed with HIV and also monitors the efficacy of ART treatment thereafter. ART slows the progression of HIV to AIDS. In the developing world, CD4 tests are often performed in centralized laboratories, typically in urban areas. The expansion of ART programs into rural areas has created a need for rapid CD4 counting because logistical barriers can delay the timely dissemination of test results and affect patient care through delay in intervention or loss of follow-up care. CD4 measurement at the point-of-care (POC) in rural areas could help the facilitation of ART and monitoring of treatment. This review highlights recent technology developments with applications towards determining CD4 counts at the POC.     

The changing face of AIDS-related opportunism: cryptococcosis in the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era. Case reports and literature review

Only nine cases of AIDS-related cryptococcosis have been reported until now in patients receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), all of them with abnormal clinical features. Two HIV-infected patients who experienced an atypical relapse of cryptococcosis shortly after the start of HAART and despite maintenance antifungal treatment, are described. Six different relapses of cryptococcal meningitis were observed in a 28-month period in a patient who obtained a poor immune recovery after HAART (as shown by a CD4+ lymphocyte count ranging from 78 to 149 cells/microL, opposed to a baseline level of 98 cells/microL). On the other hand, a patient with favorable immunological response to HAART (as expressed by a CD4+ count growing from 7 to 186 cells/microL), experienced isolated multiple indolent cryptococcal abscesses involving head, neck, the anterior thoracic wall, and regional lymph nodes, with repeatedly negative cultures, and diagnosis obtained by both histopathologic study and positive serum antigen assay. Both our case reports are representative of novel correlations between opportunistic pathogens and immune reactivity, descending from the introduction of HAART. The first episode describes an exceedingly elevated number of disease relapses despite HAART and antifungal maintenance treatment, which may descend from an incomplete immune response to antiretroviral therapy, possibly responsible for failure in obtaining eradication of yeasts, but also for lack of disease dissemination (usually leading to a lethal multivisceral involvement in the pre-HAART era). The abnormal disease course and localization of second reported patient well depicts an "immune reconstitution syndrome" probably representing a flare-up of a latent fungal infection, caused by a rapidly effective HAART. In patients treated with HAART, AIDS-related cryptococcosis cannot therefore be ruled out by the absence of neurological involvement, and by persistingly negative cultures.     

Retention in HIV care between testing and treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

Background

Improving the outcomes of HIV/AIDS treatment programs in resource-limited settings requires successful linkage of patients testing positive for HIV to pre–antiretroviral therapy (ART) care and retention in pre-ART care until ART initiation. We conducted a systematic review of pre-ART retention in care in Africa.

Methods and Findings

We searched PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, conference abstracts, and reference lists for reports on the proportion of adult patients retained between any two points between testing positive for HIV and initiating ART in sub-Saharan African HIV/AIDS care programs. Results were categorized as Stage 1 (from HIV testing to receipt of CD4 count results or clinical staging), Stage 2 (from staging to ART eligibility), or Stage 3 (from ART eligibility to ART initiation). Medians (ranges) were reported for the proportions of patients retained in each stage. We identified 28 eligible studies. The median proportion retained in Stage 1 was 59% (35%–88%); Stage 2, 46% (31%–95%); and Stage 3, 68% (14%–84%). Most studies reported on only one stage; none followed a cohort of patients through all three stages. Enrollment criteria, terminology, end points, follow-up, and outcomes varied widely and were often poorly defined, making aggregation of results difficult. Synthesis of findings from multiple studies suggests that fewer than one-third of patients testing positive for HIV and not yet eligible for ART when diagnosed are retained continuously in care, though this estimate should be regarded with caution because of review limitations.

Conclusions

Studies of retention in pre-ART care report substantial loss of patients at every step, starting with patients who do not return for their initial CD4 count results and ending with those who do not initiate ART despite eligibility. Better health information systems that allow patients to be tracked between service delivery points are needed to properly evaluate pre-ART loss to care, and researchers should attempt to standardize the terminology, definitions, and time periods reported. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The Impact of B-Cell Perturbations on Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Response in HIV-Infected Adults

Untreated HIV infection results in severe perturbations of the B-cell population and hyporesponsiveness to vaccination. We studied associations between circulating B-cell subsets and antibody response to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in treated and untreated HIV patients.Ninety-five HIV-infected adults were grouped according to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and CD4+ cell count as follows: 20 ART-naïve (no prior ART), 62 ART-responders (received ART, and CD4 count >500 cells/µl), and 13 impaired responders (received ART for more than 3 years, and CD4 count <500 cells/µl). All subjects were immunized twice with double-dose 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine with or without 1 mg CPG 7909 (toll-like receptor 9 agonist) at baseline and after three months. Pre-vaccination B-cell subpopulations were assessed by flow cytometry. Serum IgG concentrations for vaccine serotypes were quantified by ELISA at baseline and 3, 4, and 9 months post-vaccination. ART responders had more isotype-switched memory B cells and more marginal-zone (MZ)-like B cells compared with impaired responders. Furthermore, ART-naïve patients had higher concentration of transitional B cells and plasmablasts compared with B cells of other patient groups. The concentration of MZ-like, isotype switched memory cells and plasmablasts correlated positively with post-vaccination IgG concentration at 3, 4, and 9 months. Low concentrations of isotype-switched memory B cells was the strongest independent predictor of poor pneumococcal conjugate vaccine responsiveness, emphasizing that B-cell subset disturbances are associated with poor vaccine response among HIV-infected patients     

Four drug-HAART in primary HIV-1 infection: clinical benefits and virologic parameters

BACKGROUND: From a theoretical standpoint, primary HIV infection (PHI) represents a great chance to modify the natural history of the disease. In this study we purposed a four drugs regimen with zidovudine, lamivudine, ritonavir and saquinavir to treat aggressively the infection and achieve a complete immune reconstitution. METHODS: This is an Italian multicentric open label study. Adult patients with PHI were eligible for the study if they met at least one clinical criterion and one laboratory criterion of the following. Clinical criteria: Signs and symptoms of acute retroviral syndrome within the past 70 days, exposure to HIV-1 within the last 3 months, a preceding negative antibody test within the past 6 months. Laboratory criteria: Detectable p24 antigen with neutralization in serum; detectable HIV-RNA in plasma; indeterminate Western blot test with negative or low positive value HIV antibody in ELISA test. RESULTS: Since April 1997 to April 1999 40 patients with PHI have been enrolled; 80% of this cohort referred symptoms related to acute antiretroviral syndrome. Treatment has been withdrawn in 17 patients (12 for intolerance, 3 for toxicity and 2 for failure). At baseline the mean CD4+ T cells count and CD4/CD8 ratio were 537 (range 55-1287) and 0.58 (range 0.1-1.03) and the mean plasma HIV-RNA level was 5.9 log copies/ml (range 3-7.15). Plasmatic HIV-1 RNA levels of all patients dropped below 200 copies/ml in 68% of patients at week 12, 81% at week 24, 93% after 12 months and 100% after 18 months. Immunological parameters have been improved and have achieved normal range since 6th month. CONCLUSIONS: A rapid virologic suppression and immunological reconstitution are associated with PHI therapy. However early treatment should be weighted against the potential disadvantages such as immediate adverse events (intolerance and drug toxicity) and long term manifestation (metabolic disorders).     

Sustained Virological Response on Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy following Virological Failure in HIV-Infected Patients in Rural South Africa

Objective

This study aims to describe the virological, immunological and clinical efficacy of protease inhibitor (PI)-based second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in rural South Africa.

Methods

An observational cohort study was performed on 210 patients (including 39 children) who initiated PI-based second-line therapy at least 12 months prior to data collection. Biannual clinical, immunological and virological monitoring was performed. Primary endpoints were adequate virological response (plasma HIV-1 RNA<400 copies/ml), full virological suppression (plasma HIV-1 RNA<50 copies/ml) and treatment failure (virological failure (plasma HIV-1 RNA>1000 after initial virological response) or on-going viremia (plasma HIV-1 RNA never<400 copies/ml for more than six months)). Data were analyzed by an on-treatment (OT) and intention-to-treat (ITT) approach. Analyses were primarily performed on the group of patients who switched following first-line virological failure.

Results

Median duration of follow-up after switch to second-line treatment was 20 months [IQR 11–35]. 191 patients had switched to second-line ART due to first-line virological failure. 139/191 of them (72.8%, ITT) were in care and on treatment at the end of follow-up and 11/191 (5.8%, ITT) had died. After twelve months, an adequate virological response was seen in 92/128 patients (71.9%, OT), of which 78/128 (60.9%, OT) experienced full virological suppression. Virological response remained stable after 24 months. Virological efficacy was similar amongst adult and pediatric patients. As in first-line ART, we observed a lack of correlation between virological failure and WHO-defined immunological failure.

Conclusions

Good virological outcomes following first-line failure can be achieved with PI-based, second-line antiretroviral therapy in both adult and pediatric patients in rural South Africa. Retention rates were high and virological outcomes were sustainable during the two-year follow-up period, although persisting low-level viremia occurred in a subset of patients. The observed viro-immunological dissociation emphasizes the need for virological monitoring.     

Factors predicting discordant virological and immunological responses to antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 clade C infected Zulu/Xhosa in South Africa

Factors predicting suboptimal CD4 cell recovery have been studied in HIV clade-B infected US and European populations. It is, however, uncertain to what extent these results are applicable to HIV clade-C infected African populations. Multivariate analysis using logistic regression and longitudinal analyses using mixed models were employed to assess the impact of age, gender, baseline CD4 cell count, hemoglobin, body mass index (BMI), tuberculosis and other opportunistic co-infections, and frequencies of regimen change on CD4 cell recovery at 12 and 30 months and on overtime change in CD4 cells among 442 virologically suppressed South Africans. Despite adequate virological response 37% (95% CI:32%-42%) and 83% (95% CI:79%-86%) of patients on antiretroviral therapy failed to restore CD4 cell counts ≥ 200 cells/mm(3) after 12 and ≥ 500 cells/mm(3) after 30 months, respectively, in this South African cohort. Critical risk factors for inadequate recovery were older age (p = 0.001) and nadir CD4 cell count at ART initiation (p<0.0001), while concurrent TB co-infection, BMI, baseline hemoglobin, gender and antiretroviral regimen were not significant risk factors. These data suggest that greater efforts are needed to identify and treat HAART-eligible patients prior to severe CD4 cell decline or achievement of advanced age.     

Monitoring of Antiretroviral Therapy and Mortality in HIV Programmes in Malawi,South Africa and Zambia: Mathematical Modelling Study

Objectives

Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference.

Design:

Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes.

Methods

We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained.

Results

RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74–1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77–1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44–1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality.

Conclusions

VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.