Time Preferences Predict Mortality among HIV-Infected Adults Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya

Background

Identifying characteristics of HIV-infected adults likely to have poor treatment outcomes can be useful for targeting interventions efficiently. Research in economics and psychology suggests that individuals’ intertemporal time preferences, which indicate the extent to which they trade-off immediate vs. future cost and benefits, can influence various health behaviors. While there is empirical support for the association between time preferences and various non-HIV health behaviors and outcomes, the extent to which time preferences predict outcomes of those receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) has not been examined previously.

Methods

HIV-infected adults initiating ART were enrolled at a health facility in Kenya. Participants’ time preferences were measured at enrollment and used to classify them as having either a low or high discount rate for future benefits. At 48 weeks, we assessed mortality and ART adherence, as measured by Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS). Logistic regression models adjusting for socio-economic characteristics and risk factors were used to determine the association between time preferences and mortality as well as MEMS adherence ≥90%.

Results

Overall, 44% (96/220) of participants were classified as having high discount rates. Participants with high discount rates had significantly higher 48-week mortality than participants with low discount rates (9.3% vs. 3.1%; adjusted odds ratio 3.84; 95% CI 1.03, 14.50). MEMS adherence ≥90% was similar for participants with high vs. low discount rates (42.3% vs. 49.6%, AOR 0.70; 95% CI 0.40, 1.25).

Conclusion

High discount rates were associated with significantly higher risk of mortality among HIV-infected patients initiating ART. Greater use of time preference measures may improve identification of patients at risk of poor clinical outcomes. More research is needed to further identify mechanisms of action and also to build upon and test the generalizability of this finding.     

Incidence of Hospitalized Pneumococcal Pneumonia among Adults in Guatemala, 2008-2012

Background Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of pneumonia worldwide. However, the burden of pneumococcal pneumonia among adults in low- and middle-income countries is not well described.MethodsData from 2008–2012 was analyzed from two surveillance sites in Guatemala to describe the incidence of pneumococcal pneumonia in adults. A case of hospitalized pneumococcal pneumonia was defined as a positive pneumococcal urinary antigen test or blood culture in persons aged ≥ 18 years hospitalized with an acute respiratory infection (ARI).ResultsAmong 1595 adults admitted with ARI, 1363 (82%) had either urine testing (n = 1286) or blood culture (n = 338) performed. Of these, 188 (14%) had pneumococcal pneumonia, including 173 detected by urine only, 8 by blood culture only, and 7 by both methods. Incidence rates increased with age, with the lowest rate among 18–24 year-olds (2.75/100,000) and the highest among ≥65 year-olds (31.3/100,000). The adjusted incidence of hospitalized pneumococcal pneumonia was 18.6/100,000 overall, with in-hospital mortality of 5%.ConclusionsAn important burden of hospitalized pneumococcal pneumonia in adults was described, particularly for the elderly. However, even adjusted rates likely underestimate the true burden of pneumococcal pneumonia in the community. These data provide a baseline against which to measure the indirect effects of the 2013 introduction of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children in Guatemala.     

Cardiac Complications Associated with Short-Term Mortality in Schizophrenia Patients Hospitalized for Pneumonia: A Nationwide Case-Control Study

Background

Pneumonia is one of most prevalent infectious diseases worldwide and is associated with considerable mortality. In comparison to general population, schizophrenia patients hospitalized for pneumonia have poorer outcomes. We explored the risk factors of short-term mortality in this population because the information is lacking in the literature.

Methods

In a nationwide schizophrenia cohort, derived from the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan, that was hospitalized for pneumonia between 2000 and 2008 (n = 1,741), we identified 141 subjects who died during their hospitalizations or shortly after their discharges. Based on risk-set sampling in a 1∶4 ratio, 468 matched controls were selected from the study cohort (i.e., schizophrenia cohort with pneumonia). Physical illnesses were categorized as pre-existing and incident illnesses that developed after pneumonia respectively. Exposures to medications were categorized by type, duration, and defined daily dose. We used stepwise conditional logistic regression to explore the risk factors for short-term mortality.

Results

Pre-existing arrhythmia was associated with short-term mortality (adjusted risk ratio [RR] = 4.99, p<0.01). Several variables during hospitalization were associated with increased mortality risk, including incident arrhythmia (RR = 7.44, p<0.01), incident heart failure (RR = 5.49, p = 0.0183) and the use of hypoglycemic drugs (RR = 2.32, p<0.01). Furthermore, individual antipsychotic drugs (such as clozapine) known to induce pneumonia were not significantly associated with the risk.

Conclusions

Incident cardiac complications following pneumonia are associated with increased short-term mortality. These findings have broad implications for clinical intervention and future studies are needed to clarify the mechanisms of the risk factors.     

Influenza Pneumonia Surveillance among Hospitalized Adults May Underestimate the Burden of Severe Influenza Disease

Background

Studies seeking to estimate the burden of influenza among hospitalized adults often use case definitions that require presence of pneumonia. The goal of this study was to assess the extent to which restricting influenza testing to adults hospitalized with pneumonia could underestimate the total burden of hospitalized influenza disease.

Methods

We conducted a modelling study using the complete State Inpatient Databases from Arizona, California, and Washington and regional influenza surveillance data acquired from CDC from January 2003 through March 2009. The exposures of interest were positive laboratory tests for influenza A (H1N1), influenza A (H3N2), and influenza B from two contiguous US Federal Regions encompassing the study area. We identified the two outcomes of interest by ICD-9-CM code: respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations, as well as critical illness hospitalizations (acute respiratory failure, severe sepsis, and in-hospital death). We linked the hospitalization datasets with the virus surveillance datasets by geographic region and month of hospitalization. We used negative binomial regression models to estimate the number of influenza-associated events for the outcomes of interest. We sub-categorized these events to include all outcomes with or without pneumonia diagnosis codes.

Results

We estimated that there were 80,834 (95% CI 29,214–174,033) influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations and 26,760 (95% CI 14,541–47,464) influenza-associated critical illness hospitalizations. When a pneumonia diagnosis was excluded, the estimated number of influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations was 24,816 (95% CI 6,342–92,624). The estimated number of influenza-associated critical illness hospitalizations was 8,213 (95% CI 3,764–20,799). Around 30% of both influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations, as well as influenza-associated critical illness hospitalizations did not have pneumonia diagnosis codes.

Conclusions

Surveillance studies which only consider hospitalizations that include a diagnosis of pneumonia may underestimate the total burden of influenza hospitalizations.     

Hypoalbuminemia Is a Strong Predictor of 30-Day All-Cause Mortality in Acutely Admitted Medical Patients: A Prospective,Observational, Cohort Study

Objective

Emergency patients with hypoalbuminemia are known to have increased mortality. No previous studies have, however, assessed the predictive value of low albumin on mortality in unselected acutely admitted medical patients. We aimed at assessing the predictive power of hypoalbuminemia on 30-day all-cause mortality in a cohort of acutely admitted medical patients.

Methods

We included all acutely admitted adult medical patients from the medical admission unit at a regional teaching hospital in Denmark. Data on mortality was extracted from the Danish Civil Register to ensure complete follow-up. Patients were divided into three groups according to their plasma albumin levels (0–34, 35–44 and ≥45 g/L) and mortality was identified for each group using Kaplan-Meier survival plot. Discriminatory power (ability to discriminate patients at increased risk of mortality) and calibration (precision of predictions) for hypoalbuminemia was determined.

Results

We included 5,894 patients and albumin was available in 5,451 (92.5%). A total of 332 (5.6%) patients died within 30 days of admission. Median plasma albumin was 40 g/L (IQR 37–43). Crude 30-day mortality in patients with low albumin was 16.3% compared to 4.3% among patients with normal albumin (p<0.0001). Patients with low albumin were older and admitted for a longer period of time than patients with a normal albumin, while patients with high albumin had a lower 30-day mortality, were younger and were admitted for a shorter period. Multivariable logistic regression analyses confirmed the association of hypoalbuminemia with mortality (OR: 1.95 (95% CI: 1.31–2.90)). Discriminatory power was good (AUROC 0.73 (95% CI, 0.70–0.77)) and calibration acceptable.

Conclusion

We found hypoalbuminemia to be associated with 30-day all-cause mortality in acutely admitted medical patients. Used as predictive tool for mortality, plasma albumin had acceptable discriminatory power and good calibration.     

30-Day Mortality in Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Prognostic Value of Clinical Scores and Anamnestic Features

Purpose

Identification of high-risk patients with pulmonary embolism is vital. The aim of the present study was to examine clinical scores, their single items, and anamnestic features in their ability to predict 30-day mortality.

Materials and Methods

A retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 was performed. Inclusion criteria were presence of pulmonary embolism, availability of patient records and 30-day follow-up. The following clinical scores were calculated: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, original and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index, Glasgow Coma Scale, and euroSCORE II.

Results

In the study group of 365 patients 39 patients (10.7%) died within 30 days due to pulmonary embolism. From all examined scores and parameters the best predictor of 30-day mortality were the Glasgow Coma scale (≤ 10) and parameters of the circulatory system including presence of mechanical ventilation, arterial pH (< 7.335), and systolic blood pressure (< 99 mm Hg).

Conclusions

Easy to ascertain circulatory parameters have the same or higher prognostic value than the clinical scores that were applied in this study. From all clinical scores studied the Glasgow Coma Scale was the most time- and cost-efficient one.     

The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment Score (PANDORA): Development of a Simple Predictive Risk Score for 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality Based on Demographics,Clinical Observation,and Nutrition

ObjectiveTo develop a simple scoring system to predict 30 day in-hospital mortality of in-patients excluding those from intensive care units based on easily obtainable demographic, disease and nutrition related patient data.MethodsScore development with general estimation equation methodology and model selection by P-value thresholding based on a cross-sectional sample of 52 risk indicators with 123 item classes collected with questionnaires and stored in an multilingual online database.SettingWorldwide prospective cross-sectional cohort with 30 day in-hospital mortality from the nutritionDay 2006-2009 and an external validation sample from 2012.ResultsWe included 43894 patients from 2480 units in 32 countries. 1631(3.72%) patients died within 30 days in hospital. The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment (PANDORA) score predicts 30-day hospital mortality based on 7 indicators with 31 item classes on a scale from 0 to 75 points. The indicators are age (0 to 17 points), nutrient intake on nutritionDay (0 to 12 points), mobility (0 to 11 points), fluid status (0 to 10 points), BMI (0 to 9 points), cancer (9 points) and main patient group (0 to 7 points). An appropriate model fit has been achieved. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mortality prediction was 0.82 in the development sample and 0.79 in the external validation sample.ConclusionsThe PANDORA score is a simple, robust scoring system for a general population of hospitalised patients to be used for risk stratification and benchmarking.     

Predictors of Severe Sepsis among Patients Hospitalized for Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Background

Severe sepsis, may be present on hospital arrival in approximately one-third of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

Objective

To determine the host characteristics and micro-organisms associated with severe sepsis in patients hospitalized with CAP.

Results

We performed a prospective multicenter cohort study in 13 Spanish hospital, on 4070 hospitalized CAP patients, 1529 of whom (37.6%) presented with severe sepsis. Severe sepsis CAP was independently associated with older age (>65 years), alcohol abuse (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.07–1.61), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.50–2.04) and renal disease (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.21–2.03), whereas prior antibiotic treatment was a protective factor (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.52–0.73). Bacteremia (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.05–1.79), S pneumoniae (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.31–1.95) and mixed microbial etiology (OR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.10–2.49) were associated with severe sepsis CAP.

Conclusions

CAP patients with COPD, renal disease and alcohol abuse, as well as those with CAP due to S pneumonia or mixed micro-organisms are more likely to present to the hospital with severe sepsis.     

Glucose Variability is an Independent Predictor of Mortality in Hospitalized Patients Treated with Total Parenteral Nutrition

ObjectiveHyperglycemia is associated with increased mortality in critically ill patients treated with total parenteral nutrition (TPN). The role of glucose variability (GV) in predicting outcomes in these patients is not known.MethodsThis retrospective study included medical and surgical patients receiving TPN in a community teaching hospital. GV was calculated by standard deviation (SD) of blood glucose (BG) values and by mean BG daily (Δ) change (daily max – daily minimum).ResultsA total of 276 medical and surgical patients (mean age: 51 ± 18 years), 19% with a history of diabetes mellitus (DM), and 74% with intensive care unit (ICU) admission were treated with TPN. During TPN, the mean daily BG was 142.9 ± 33 mg/dL; frequencies of hypoglycemia < 70 and < 40 mg/dL were 41% and 3%, respectively; and hospital mortality was 27.2%. The mean GV by SD was 38 ± 21 mg/dL and by mean (Δ) change 58 ± 34 mg/dL. GV was significantly higher in deceased patients (SD: 48 ± 25 vs. 34 ± 18 mg/dL and Δ change: 75 ± 39 vs. 51 ± 29 mg/dL, both P < .01) than surviving patients. Multivariate analysis adjusted for age, DM status, gender, APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) score, mean daily glucose, and hypoglycemia revealed that GV was an independent predictor of hospital mortality (P < .05). The association between GV and mortality was limited to patients without a history of DM and was not present in patients with DM.ConclusionHigh GV is associated with increased hospital mortality independent of the presence and severity of hyperglycemia or hypoglycemia during TPN therapy. Prospective randomized trials are needed to determine if reduction in GV with intensive glycemic control improves clinical outcomes in patients treated with TPN. (Endocr Pract. 2014;20:41-45)     

Sexual Relationship Power and Depression among HIV-Infected Women in Rural Uganda

Background

Depression is associated with increased HIV transmission risk, increased morbidity, and higher risk of HIV-related death among HIV-infected women. Low sexual relationship power also contributes to HIV risk, but there is limited understanding of how it relates to mental health among HIV-infected women.

Methods

Participants were 270 HIV-infected women from the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes study, a prospective cohort of individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Mbarara, Uganda. Our primary predictor was baseline sexual relationship power as measured by the Sexual Relationship Power Scale (SRPS). The primary outcome was depression severity, measured with the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL), and a secondary outcome was a functional scale for mental health status (MHS). Adjusted models controlled for socio-demographic factors, CD4 count, alcohol and tobacco use, baseline WHO stage 4 disease, social support, and duration of ART.

Results

The mean HSCL score was 1.34 and 23.7% of participants had HSCL scores consistent with probable depression (HSCL>1.75). Compared to participants with low SRPS scores, individuals with both moderate (coefficient b = −0.21; 95%CI, −0.36 to −0.07) and high power (b = −0.21; 95%CI, −0.36 to −0.06) reported decreased depressive symptomology. High SRPS scores halved the likelihood of women meeting criteria for probable depression (adjusted odds ratio = 0.44; 95%CI, 0.20 to 0.93). In lagged models, low SRPS predicted subsequent depression severity, but depression did not predict subsequent changes in SPRS. Results were similar for MHS, with lagged models showing SRPS predicts subsequent mental health, but not visa versa. Both Decision-Making Dominance and Relationship Control subscales of SRPS were associated with depression symptom severity.

Conclusions

HIV-infected women with high sexual relationship power had lower depression and higher mental health status than women with low power. Interventions to improve equity in decision-making and control within dyadic partnerships are critical to prevent HIV transmission and to optimize mental health of HIV-infected women.     

Dual-Phase CT Collateral Score: A Predictor of Clinical Outcome in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose

The presence of good collaterals on CT angiography (CTA) is a well-known predictor for favorable outcome in acute ischemic stroke. Recently, multiphase CT has been introduced as a more accurate method in assessing collaterals. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of dual-phase CT to evaluate collateral status and predict clinical outcome.

Methods

Forty-three patients who underwent both dual-phase CT and transfemoral cerebral angiography (TFCA) for occluded intracranial internal carotid artery (ICA) and/or middle cerebral artery (M1 segment) were recruited from a prospectively collected database. The collateral status on dual-phase CT was graded by using a 4-point scale: grade 0 = no collaterals; 1 = some collaterals with persistence of some defects; 2 = slow but complete collaterals; and 3 = fast and complete collaterals. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to define the independent predictors for favorable outcome at 3 months.

Results

Dual-phase CT collateral status (ρ = 0.744) showed higher correlation with TFCA collateral status than CTA collateral status (ρ = 0.596) and substantial interobserver agreement (weighted κ = 0.776). In the univariate analysis, age, history of hypertension, collateral scores on CTA, dual-phase CT, and TFCA, occlusion in intracranial ICA, final infarct volume, and symptomatic hemorrhage were significantly associated with outcome. Among them, only the dual-phase CT collateral score was an independent predictor for favorable outcome (OR = 26.342 (2.788–248.864); P = 0.004) in the multivariate analysis.

Conclusions

The collateral status on dual-phase CT can be a useful predictor for clinical outcome in acute stroke patients, especially when advanced CT techniques are not available in emergent situations.     

Antiviral Treatment among Older Adults Hospitalized with Influenza, 2006-2012

Objective

To describe antiviral use among older, hospitalized adults during six influenza seasons (2006—2012) in Davidson County, Tennessee, USA.

Methods

Among adults ≥50 years old hospitalized with symptoms of respiratory illness or non-localizing fever, we collected information on provider-initiated influenza testing and nasal/throat swabs for influenza by RT-PCR in a research laboratory, and calculated the proportion treated with antivirals.

Results

We enrolled 1753 adults hospitalized with acute respiratory illness. Only 26% (457/1753) of enrolled patients had provider-initiated influenza testing. Thirty-eight patients had a positive clinical laboratory test, representing 2.2% of total patients and 8.3% of tested patients. Among the 38 subjects with clinical laboratory-confirmed influenza, 26.3% received antivirals compared to only 4.5% of those with negative clinical influenza tests and 0.7% of those not tested (p<0.001). There were 125 (7.1%) patients who tested positive for influenza in the research laboratory. Of those with research laboratory-confirmed influenza, 0.9%, 2.7%, and 2.8% received antivirals (p=.046) during pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic influenza seasons, respectively. Both research laboratory-confirmed influenza (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 3.04 95%CI 1.26-7.35) and clinical laboratory-confirmed influenza (AOR 3.05, 95%CI 1.07-8.71) were independently associated with antiviral treatment. Severity of disease, presence of a high-risk condition, and symptom duration were not associated with antiviral use.

Conclusions

In urban Tennessee, antiviral use was low in patients recognized to have influenza by the provider as well as those unrecognized to have influenza. The use of antivirals remained low despite recommendations to treat all hospitalized patients with confirmed or suspected influenza.     

Clinical Factors for Severity of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in Hospitalized Adults in Thailand

Plasmodium falciparum is a major cause of severe malaria in Southeast Asia, however, there is limited information regarding clinical factors associated with the severity of falciparum malaria from this region. We performed a retrospective case-control study to compare clinical factors and outcomes between patients with severe and non-severe malaria, and to identify clinical factors associated with the requirement for intensive care unit (ICU) admission of patients with severe falciparum malaria among hospitalized adults in Southeast Asia. A total of 255 patients with falciparum malaria in the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Bangkok, Thailand between 2006 and 2012 were included. We identified 104 patients with severe malaria (cases) and 151 patients with non-severe malaria (controls). Patients with falciparum malaria with following clinical and laboratory characteristics on admission (1) referrals, (2) no prior history of malaria, (3) body temperature of >38.5°C, (4) white blood cell counts >10×10⁹/µL, (5) presence of schizonts in peripheral blood smears, and (6) albumin concentrations of <3.5 g/dL, were more likely to develop severe malaria (P<0.05). Among patients with severe malaria, patients who met ≥3 of the 2010 WHO criteria had sensitivity of 79.2% and specificity of 81.8% for requiring ICU admission. Multivariate analysis identified the following as independent associated factors for severe malaria requiring ICU admission; (1) ethnicity of Thai [odds ratio (OR) = 3.601, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.011–12.822] or Myanmar [OR = 3.610, 95% CI = 1.138–11.445]; (2) referrals [OR = 3.571, 95% CI = 1.306–9.762]; (3) no prior history of malaria [OR = 5.887, 95% CI = 1.354–25.594]; and (4) albumin concentrations of <3.5 g/dL [OR = 7.200, 95% CI = 1.802–28.759]. Our findings are important for the clinical management of patients with malaria because it can help early identification of patients that could develop severe malaria and require ICU admission. Early identification and the timely initiation of appropriate treatments may well improve the outcomes and reduce the mortality of these patients.     

Food Access and Diet Quality Are Associated with Quality of Life Outcomes among HIV-Infected Individuals in Uganda

Background

Food insecurity is associated with poor nutritional and clinical outcomes among people living with HIV/AIDS. Few studies investigate the link between food insecurity, dietary diversity and health-related quality of life among people living with HIV/AIDS.

Objective

We investigated whether household food access and individual dietary diversity are associated with health-related quality of life among people living with HIV/AIDS in Uganda.

Methods

We surveyed 902 people living with HIV/AIDS and their households from two clinics in Northern Uganda. Health-related quality of life outcomes were assessed using the Medical Outcomes Study (MOS)-HIV Survey. We performed multivariate regressions to investigate the relationship between health-related quality of life, household food insecurity and individual dietary diversity.

Results

People living with HIV/AIDS from severe food insecurity households have mean mental health status scores that are 1.7 points lower (p<.001) and physical health status scores that are 1.5 points lower (p<.01). Individuals with high dietary diversity have mean mental health status scores that were 3.6 points higher (p<.001) and physical health status scores that were 2.8 points higher (p<.05).

Conclusions

Food access and diet quality are associated with health-related quality of life and may be considered as part of comprehensive interventions designed to mitigate psychosocial consequences of HIV.     

Hemoglobin May Contribute to Sex Differences in Mortality among HIV-Infected Persons in Care

Background

Some retrospective studies have found that HIV-infected women have a higher mortality risk than men after adjusting for baseline characteristics, while others have not. Anemia is a known predictor of HIV-related mortality. We assessed whether anemia contributed to the sex difference in mortality in our cohort.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among HIV-infected persons in care at the Comprehensive Care Center (Nashville, TN) between 1998 and 2009. Cox proportional hazards models compared time from first clinic visit to death and AIDS-defining events (ADE), adjusted for baseline characteristics with and without baseline hemoglobin.

Results

Of 3,633 persons, 879 (24%) were women. Women had lower median baseline hemoglobin compared to men: 12.4 g/dL (inter-quartile range (IQR) 11.3–13.4) vs. 14.4 (IQR 13.1–15.5), respectively (P<0.001). In multivariable models without hemoglobin, the risk of death was higher among women: hazard ratio (HR) 1.46 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17, 1.82; P = 0.001). In multivariable models with hemoglobin, the risk of death in women was diminished and no longer statistically significant: HR 1.2 (95% CI 0.93, 1.55; P = 0.17). The risk of ADE was higher among women in both models, but not statistically significant: HR 1.1 (95% CI 0.85–1.42; P = 0.46) in the model without hemoglobin and 1.11 (95% CI 0.82–1.48; P = 0.50) in the model with hemoglobin. Hemoglobin was a strong predictor of death: HR 0.88 per 1 g/dL increase (95% CI 0.83, 0.93; P<0.001).

Conclusion

In our study population of HIV-infected persons in care, women had lower baseline hemoglobin, and lower hemoglobin contributed to their higher risk of ADE and death.     

The A2DS2 Score as a Predictor of Pneumonia and In-Hospital Death after Acute Ischemic Stroke in Chinese Populations

Background and Purpose

Stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) is a common complication and an important cause of death during hospitalization. The A²DS² (Age, Atrial fibrillation, Dysphagia, Sex, Stroke Severity) score was developed from the Berlin Stroke Registry and showed good predictive value for predicting SAP. We sought to identify the association between the A²DS² score and SAP, and, furthermore, to identify whether the A²DS² score was a predictor for in-hospital death after acute ischemic stroke in a Chinese population.

Methods

This was a retrospective study. 1239 acute ischemic stroke patients were classified to low A²DS² group (0–4) and high A²DS² score (5–10) group. Primary outcome was in-hospital SAP. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the association between the A²DS² score and SAP, and also the association between the A²DS² score and in-hospital death.

Results

The overall incidence rates of SAP and in-hospital mortality after acute ischemic stroke were 7.3% and 2.4%, respectively. The incidence rate of SAP in low and high A²DS² score groups was separately 3.3% and 24.7% (P<0.001). During hospitalization, 1.2% patients in low score group and 7.8% patients in high score group died (P<0.001). Multivariate regression demonstrated that patients in high score group had a higher risk of SAP (OR = 8.888, 95%CI: 5.552–14.229) and mortality (OR = 7.833, 95%CI: 3.580–17.137) than patients in low score group.

Conclusions

The A²DS² score was a strong predictor for SAP and in-hospital death of Chinese acute ischemic stroke patients. The A²DS² score might be a useful tool for the identification of patients with a high risk of SAP and death during hospitalization.     

High Prevalence of Malaria Parasitemia and Anemia among Hospitalized Children in Rakai,Uganda

Background

There is a paucity of data on malaria among hospitalized children in malaria endemic areas. We determined the prevalence, presentation and treatment outcomes of malaria and anemia among children in two hospitals in Rakai, Uganda.

Methods

Children under five years hospitalized in Kalisizo hospital or Bikira health center in Rakai district, Uganda between May 2011 and May 2012 were enrolled and followed-up until discharge, death or referral. Data were collected on social-demographic characteristics, current and past illnesses and clinical signs and symptoms. Blood smears, hemoglobin (Hgb) levels and HIV testing were performed from finger/heel prick blood. The associations between malaria infection and other factors were estimated using log-binomial regression to estimate adjusted prevalence risk ratios (aPRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), controlling for clustering at health facilities.

Results

2471 children were enrolled. The most common medical presentations were fever (96.2%), cough (61.7%), vomiting (44.2%), diarrhea (20.8%), and seizures (16.0%). The prevalence of malaria parasitemia was 54.6%. Children with malaria were more likely to present with a history of fever (aPRR 2.23; CI 1.18–4.24) and seizures (aPRR 1.12; CI 1.09–1.16). Confirmed malaria was significantly lower among girls than boys (aPRR 0.92; CI 0.91–0.93), HIV infected children (aPRR 0.60 CI 0.52–0.71), and children with diarrhea (aPRR 0.76; CI 0.65–0.90). The overall prevalence of anemia (Hgb<10 g/dl) was 56.3% and severe anemia (Hgb<6 g/dL) was 17.8%. Among children with severe anemia 76.8% had malaria parasitemia, of whom 93.1% received blood transfusion. Malaria associated mortality was 0.6%.

Conclusion

There was a high prevalence of malaria parasitemia and anemia among inpatient children under five years. Malaria prevention is a priority in this population.     

Evaluation of Pneumonia Severity and Acute Physiology Scores to Predict ICU Admission and Mortality in Patients Hospitalized for Influenza

Background

The demand for inpatient medical services increases during influenza season. A scoring system capable of identifying influenza patients at low risk death or ICU admission could help clinicians make hospital admission decisions.

Methods

Hospitalized patients with laboratory confirmed influenza were identified over 3 influenza seasons at 25 Ontario hospitals. Each patient was assigned a score for 6 pneumonia severity and 2 sepsis scores using the first data available following their registration in the emergency room. In-hospital mortality and ICU admission were the outcomes. Score performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the sensitivity and specificity for identifying low risk patients (risk of outcome <5%).

Results

The cohort consisted of 607 adult patients. Mean age was 76 years, 12% of patients died (71/607) and 9% required ICU care (55/607). None of the scores examined demonstrated good discriminatory ability (AUC≥0.80). The Pneumonia Severity Index (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.72–0.83) and the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score (AUC 0.77, 95% 0.71–0.83) demonstrated fair predictive ability (AUC≥0.70) for in-hospital mortality. The best predictor of ICU admission was SMART-COP (AUC 0.73, 95% CI 0.67–0.79). All other scores were poor predictors (AUC <0.70) of either outcome. If patients classified as low risk for in-hospital mortality using the PSI were discharged, 35% of admissions would have been avoided.

Conclusions

None of the scores studied were good predictors of in-hospital mortality or ICU admission. The PSI and MEDS score were fair predictors of death and if these results are validated, their use could reduce influenza admission rates significantly.