Rabies in urban foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Britain: the use of a spatial stochastic simulation model to examine the pattern of spread and evaluate the efficacy of different control régimes.

The threat of rabies being reintroduced into Britain is probably greater now than at any time over the last 60 years. This threat is reviewed with particular regard to the problems that would be posed should rabies be introduced to the high-density fox populations found in many cities in southern England. Computer models can provide a valuable means of understanding the pattern of rabies spread in fox populations and the likely problems of control, so the construction of previous rabies models was reviewed. None were found to be suitable for analysing the particular problems posed by high-density, spatially heterogeneous, urban fox populations. Therefore, a new spatial stochastic simulation model was produced, based on demographic and other data collected during a long-term study on the urban fox population in Bristol, and fox density data collected from a number of cities in southern England. The simulation model was used to analyse the effects of spatial heterogeneity in the fox population on the pattern of rabies spread. Simulations were then used to evaluate the effects of: (i) varying levels of fox control; (ii) changing the size of the control zone; (iii) the onset of the rabies epizooty at different times of the year: and (iv) delay before the commencement of control on the chances of containing the disease. These simulations were run for four cities (Bournemouth and Poole, Bristol, Leicester and the West Midlands conurbation) with different mean fox population densities. It was found that the variance in the monthly velocity of the rabies front was greater for heterogeneous fox populations. In cities with high fox densities, low or moderate levels of control were unsuccessful in containing the disease, but these urban areas had the highest rates of success with the highest levels of control. A three-month delay in the commencement of a rabies control campaign on average reduced the chance of successfully controlling the disease by 10-20%, although this was higher in lower-density fox populations. Rabies outbreaks in the dispersal period were on average 10% less likely to be contained. Increasing the size of the control zone increased the chances of successfully containing the disease, although this effect was density dependent, so the effect was less in low-density fox populations. These results are discussed in relation to the current rabies contingency plans for British urban areas.     

Evolutionary and statistical properties of three genetic distances

Many genetic distances have been developed to summarize allele frequency differences between populations. I review the evolutionary and statistical properties of three popular genetic distances: DS, DA, and theta;, using computer simulation of two simple evolutionary histories: an isolation model of population divergence and an equilibrium migration model. The effect of effective population size, mutation rate, and mutation mechanism upon the parametric value between pairs of populations in these models explored, and the unique properties of each distance are described. The effect of these evolutionary parameters on study design is also investigated and similar results are found for each genetic distance in each model of evolution: large sample sizes are warranted when populations are relatively genetically similar; and loci with more alleles produce better estimates of genetic distance.     

The computer program STRUCTURE does not reliably identify the main genetic clusters within species: simulations and implications for human population structure

One of the primary goals of population genetics is to succinctly describe genetic relationships among populations, and the computer program STRUCTURE is one of the most frequently used tools for doing so. The mathematical model used by STRUCTURE was designed to sort individuals into Hardy–Weinberg populations, but the program is also frequently used to group individuals from a large number of populations into a small number of clusters that are supposed to represent the main genetic divisions within species. In this study, I used computer simulations to examine how well STRUCTURE accomplishes this latter task. Simulations of populations that had a simple hierarchical history of fragmentation showed that when there were relatively long divergence times within evolutionary lineages, the clusters created by STRUCTURE were frequently not consistent with the evolutionary history of the populations. These difficulties can be attributed to forcing STRUCTURE to place individuals into too few clusters. Simulations also showed that the clusters produced by STRUCTURE can be strongly influenced by variation in sample size. In some circumstances, STRUCTURE simply put all of the individuals from the largest sample in the same cluster. A reanalysis of human population structure suggests that the problems I identified with STRUCTURE in simulations may have obscured relationships among human populations—particularly genetic similarity between Europeans and some African populations.     

种群生存力分析研究进展和趋势

种群生存力分析（PVA）是正在迅速发展的新方法,已成为保护生物学研究的热点。它主要研究随机干扰对小种群绝灭的影响,其目的是制定最小可存活种群（MVP）,把绝灭减少到可接受的水平。随机干扰可分四类;统计随机性,环境随机性,自然灾害和遗传随机性。确定MVP的方法有三种：理论模型,模拟模型,模拟模型和岛屿生物地理学方法。理论模型主要研究理想或特定条件下随机因素对种群的影响;模拟模型是利用计算机模拟种群绝灭过程;岛屿生物地理学方法主要分析岛屿物种的分布和存活,证实分析模型和模拟模型。已有大量的文献研究统计随机性,环境随机性和自然灾害的行为特征,但遗传因素与种群生存力之间的关系还不清楚。建立包括四种随机性的综合性模型,广泛地检验PVA模型,系统地研制目标种的遗传和生态特性以及MVP的实际应用是PVA的发展趋势。     

Intragenomic conflict produces sex ratio dynamics that favor maternal sex ratio distorters

Maternal sex ratio distorters (MSDs) are selfish elements that enhance their transmission by biasing their host's sex allocation in favor of females. While previous models have predicted that the female‐biased populations resulting from sex ratio distortion can benefit from enhanced productivity, these models neglect Fisherian selection for nuclear suppressors, an unrealistic assumption in most systems. We used individual‐based computer simulation modeling to explore the intragenomic conflict between sex ratio distorters and their suppressors and explored the impacts of these dynamics on population‐level competition between species characterized by MSDs and those lacking them. The conflict between distorters and suppressors was capable of producing large cyclical fluctuations in the population sex ratio and reproductive rate. Despite fitness costs associated with the distorters and suppressors, MSD populations often exhibited enhanced productivity and outcompeted non‐MSD populations in single and multiple‐population competition simulations. Notably, the conflict itself is beneficial to the success of populations, as sex ratio oscillations limit the competitive deficits associated with prolonged periods of male rarity. Although intragenomic conflict has been historically viewed as deleterious to populations, our results suggest that distorter–suppressor conflict can provide population‐level advantages, potentially helping to explain the persistence of sex ratio distorters in a range of taxa.     

Patterns of DNA sequence diversity and genetic structure after a range expansion: lessons from the infinite-island model

It has been long recognized that population demographic expansions lead to distinctive features in the molecular diversity of populations. However, recent simulation results have suggested that a distinction could be made between a pure demographic expansion in an unsubdivided population, and a range expansion in a subdivided population, both leading to a large increase in the total number of the individuals. In order to better characterize the effect of a range expansion, I introduce a simple model of instantaneous expansion under an infinite-island model, under which I derive the distribution of the number of mutation differences between pairs of genes (the mismatch distribution), the heterozygosity, the average number of pairwise difference, and the fixation index F(ST). These derivations are checked against simulations, and are shown to lead to results qualitatively similar to those one would obtain after a range expansion in a 2-dimensional stepping-stone model. I then apply these results to estimate immigration rates in hunter-gather and post-Neolithic human populations from patterns of mitochondrial (mtDNA) diversity. Potential problems with this estimation procedure are also discussed.     

PREDICTING ADAPTATION UNDER MIGRATION LOAD: THE ROLE OF GENETIC SKEW

Quantitative genetics models have been used to predict the constraints on local adaptation caused by gene flow between populations under migration–selection balance. One key assumption of this approach is that genetic values within a population are normally distributed. Gene flow, however, may generate distributions that are skewed toward the immigrant's mean value. If the response to selection from a skewed distribution is different from that expected under the assumption of normality, models may result in inaccurate predictions. We use individual-based computer simulations to explore this problem, comparing our results to a recent model developed by Hendry et al. (2001) . We show that this model underestimates the equilibrium divergence between populations at migration–selection balance. The extent of this underestimation is correlated with the amount of genetic skew generated by migration and is partly explained by the fact that the analytical model ignores direct selection against hybrid phenotypes. We also show that all else being equal, response to selection in a population with a skewed distribution of genotypes is greater than in a population with normally distributed genotypes. The production of skew under migration–selection balance, however, is itself dependent upon the genetic architecture, with greater deviations from normality produced when alleles contributing to population differentiation have very different effect sizes. We find that both the skew and discrepancies between the models are greatest at intermediate migration rates and moderate to strong selection, which is exactly the region of parameter space that is most empirically relevant.     

Population genetics models of local ancestry

Migrations have played an important role in shaping the genetic diversity of human populations. Understanding genomic data thus requires careful modeling of historical gene flow. Here we consider the effect of relatively recent population structure and gene flow and interpret genomes of individuals that have ancestry from multiple source populations as mosaics of segments originating from each population. This article describes general and tractable models for local ancestry patterns with a focus on the length distribution of continuous ancestry tracts and the variance in total ancestry proportions among individuals. The models offer improved agreement with Wright-Fisher simulation data when compared to the state-of-the art and can be used to infer time-dependent migration rates from multiple populations. Considering HapMap African-American (ASW) data, we find that a model with two distinct phases of "European" gene flow significantly improves the modeling of both tract lengths and ancestry variances.     

Prediction of the human life expectancy

We have simulated demographic changes in the human population using the Penna microscopic model, based on the simple Monte Carlo method. The results of simulations have shown that during a few generations changes in the genetic pool of a population are negligible, while improving the methods of compensation of genetic defects or genetically determined proneness to many disorders drastically affects the average life span of organisms. Age distribution and mortality of the simulated populations correspond very well to real demographic data available from different countries. Basing on the comparison of structures of real human populations and the results of simulations it is possible to predict changes in the age structure of populations in the future.     

Viola: A New Visual Programming Language Designed for the Rapid Development of Interacting Agent Systems

The construction of complex simulation models and the application of new computer hardware to ecological problems has resulted in the need for many ecologists to rely on computer programmers to develop their modelling software. However, this can lead to a lack of flexibility and understanding in model implementation and in resource problems for researchers. This paper presents a new programming language, Viola, based on a simple organisational concept which can be used by most researchers to develop complex simulations much more easily than could be achieved with standard programming languages such as C++. The language is object oriented and implemented through a visual interface. It is specifically designed to cope with complicated individual based behavioural simulations and comes with embedded concurrency handling abilities.     

Detecting Isolation by Distance Using Phylogenies of Genes

We introduce a method for analyzing phylogenies of genes sampled from a geographically structured population. A parsimony method can be used to compute s, the minimum number of migration events between pairs of populations sampled, and the value of s can be used to estimate the effective migration rate M, the value of Nm in an island model with local populations of size N and a migration rate m that would yield the same value of s. Extensive simulations show that there is a simple relationship between M and the geographic distance between pairs of samples in one- and two-dimensional models of isolation by distance. Both stepping-stone and lattice models were simulated. If two demes k steps apart are sampled, then, s, the average value of s, is a function only of k/(Nm) in a one-dimensional model and is a function only of k/(Nm)2 in a two-dimensional model. Furthermore, log(M) is approximately a linear function of log(k). In a one-dimensional model, the regression coefficient is approximately -1 and in a two-dimensional model the regression coefficient is approximately -0.5. Using data from several locations, the regression of log(M) on log(distance) may indicate whether there is isolation by distance in a population at equilibrium and may allow an estimate of the effective migration rate between adjacent sampling locations. Alternative methods for analyzing DNA sequence data from a geographically structured population are discussed. An application of our method to the data of R. L. Cann, M. Stoneking and A. C. Wilson on human mitochondrial DNA is presented.     

The effect of migration during the divergence

The mean and variance of the number of nucleotide differences were obtained when the ancestral population diverged with migration. The number of nucleotide differences obtained indicates that not only the migration rate but also the period of migration has influence on a population structure. According to the migration rate and the period of migration, populations behave approximately as a single unit, diverged and isolated populations, two populations under equilibrium, or none of them. When sigma m(t) is about one, the variance of the number of nucleotide differences becomes large, where sigma m(t) is the sum of the migration rate for the period of migration. The distribution of the estimated divergence time was also obtained using computer simulations. It was found that the divergence time can be explained by sigma m(t). That is, the divergence time is mostly estimated as the time when sigma m(t) is less than 1.     

The evolution of reproductive isolation in spatially structured populations

Abstract.— Recent models of speciation have incorporated population structure and migration into the classic model of speciation in which reproductive isolation arises as a by-product of divergence. In this paper, we expanded these models to explore the joint effects of migration and population subdivision on speciation in a spatially explicit context. The results of our simulation support previous results concerning the influence of population subdivision on the accumulation of reproductive isolation. The simulation also shows that speciation in subdivided populations occurs most rapidly when subpopulations are not strictly allopatric. These results counter the widespread notion that speciation is most likely to occur in allopatric populations and suggest that there are useful insights to be gained by incorporating increasingly realistic types of population structure into models of speciation.     

Potential role of natural enemies during tree range expansions following climate change

Recent investigations have shown how chance, long-range dispersal events can allow tree populations to migrate rapidly in response to changes in climate. However, this apparent solution to Reid's paradox applies solely within the context of single species models, while the rapid migration rates seen in pollen records occurred within multispecies communities. Ecologists are therefore presented with a new challenge: reconciling the macroscopic dynamics of spread seen in the pollen record with the rules and interactions governing plant community assembly. A case that highlights this issue is the rapid spread of Beech during the Holocene into a landscape already dominated by a close competitor, Hemlock. In this study, we analyse a simple model of plant community assembly incorporating competition for space and dispersal dynamics, showing how, even when a species is capable of rapid migration into an empty landscape, the presence of an ecologically similar competitor causes Reid's paradox to re-emerge because of the dramatic slowing effect of competitive interactions on a species' rate of spread. We then show how the answer to the question of how tree species dispersed rapidly into occupied landscapes may lie in secondary interactions with host-specific pathogens and parasites. Inclusion of host-specific pathogens into the simple community assembly model illustrates how tree species undergoing range expansions can temporarily outstrip specialist predators, giving rise to a transient Jansen-Connell effect, in which the invader acts as temporary 'super-species' that spreads rapidly into communities already occupied by competitors at rates consistent with those observed in the paleo-record.     

Genetic drift and polygenic inheritance

The interaction of random gene drift and selection was studied by computer simulation for two quantitative traits, which were considered to approximate stature and skin color differences in human populations. The expected effects of gene drift, fixation of alleles and reduction of genotypic and phenotypic variances, were found in the simulation. Stabilizing selection, which seems to be the type of selection operating on these traits, was found to increase the effects of gene drift. Since there seems to be no evidence of reduction in phenotypic and presumably genotypic variability in small human populations, the applicability of these simple genetic models to human traits raises problems for which several possible solutions exist.     

基于计算流体力学数值模拟的城市绿地温湿效应及室外热舒适评价研究进展

近年来随着计算机与各学科领域交叉研究的发展,计算流体力学数值模拟方法在城市环境的微气候研究方面得到较多应用,为研究绿地在有限面积内更有效地实现其降温效应提供了新的思路。回顾计算流体力学（CFD）数值模拟方法在不同尺度的城市绿地温湿效应及室外热舒适度评价研究中的应用,在此基础上,总结目前存在的问题及不足,对未来该领域的研究方向提出3点展望,以期为未来城市绿地微气候研究提供参考：1）多平台与尺度扩展研究;2）微气候特征指标的综合交叉分析;3）高适配度模拟模型的及时更新。     

Distinguishing migration from isolation: a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach

A Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating the relative effects of migration and isolation on genetic diversity in a pair of populations from DNA sequence data is developed and tested using simulations. The two populations are assumed to be descended from a panmictic ancestral population at some time in the past and may (or may not) after that be connected by migration. The use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo method allows the joint estimation of multiple demographic parameters in either a Bayesian or a likelihood framework. The parameters estimated include the migration rate for each population, the time since the two populations diverged from a common ancestral population, and the relative size of each of the two current populations and of the common ancestral population. The results show that even a single nonrecombining genetic locus can provide substantial power to test the hypothesis of no ongoing migration and/or to test models of symmetric migration between the two populations. The use of the method is illustrated in an application to mitochondrial DNA sequence data from a fish species: the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus).     

TESD: a transposable element dynamics simulation environment

Various mathematical models have been used to explore the dynamics of transposable elements (TEs) within their host genomes. However, numerous factors can influence their dynamics, and we know only little about the dynamics of TEs when they first began to invade populations. In addition, the influence of population structuring has only recently been investigated. Transposable Element Simulator Dynamics, a population genomics simulation environment, has therefore been developed to provide a simple tool for analyzing the dynamics of TEs in a community based on (i) various TE parameters, such as the transposition and excision rates, the recombination rate and the coefficient of selection against TE insertions; and (ii) population parameters, such as population size and migration rates. The simulations can be used to illustrate the dynamic fate of TEs in structured populations, can be extended by using more specific molecular or demographic models, and can be useful for teaching population genetics and genomics. AVAILABILITY: TESD is distributed under GPL from the P?le Bioinformatique Lyonnais (PBIL) web server at http://pbil.univ-lyon1.fr/software/TESD     

The fate of mutations surfing on the wave of a range expansion

Many species, including humans, have dramatically expanded their range in the past, and such range expansions had certainly an impact on their genetic diversity. For example, mutations arising in populations at the edge of a range expansion can sometimes surf on the wave of advance and thus reach a larger spatial distribution and a much higher frequency than would be expected in stationary populations. We study here this surfing phenomenon in more detail, by performing extensive computer simulations under a two-dimensional stepping-stone model. We find that the probability of survival of a new mutation depends to a large degree on its proximity to the edge of the wave. Demographic factors such as deme size, migration rate, and local growth rate also influence the fate of these new mutations. We also find that the final spatial and frequency distributions depend on the local deme size of a subdivided population. This latter result is discussed in the light of human expansions in Europe as it should allow one to distinguish between mutations having spread with Paleolithic or Neolithic expansions. By favoring the spread of new mutations, a consequence of the surfing phenomenon is to increase the rate of evolution of spatially expanding populations.     

TESTING MODELS OF MIGRATION AND ISOLATION AMONG POPULATIONS OF CHINOOK SALMON (ONCORHYNCHUS TSCHAWYTSCHA)

The chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) is a behaviorally, morphologically, and ecologically variable species distributed over a large geographic range. Although previous genetic surveys have revealed considerable genetic differences among populations with different life history types and from different major river drainages, it is not clear to what degree these genetically distinct populations are connected by low levels of gene flow. The work described in this paper addresses this question by surveying DNA restriction site variation at six nuclear genes from nine populations encompassing most of the species's North American range, and then attempting to fit the patterns of variation observed at these genes to five different evolutionary models using computer simulations of the coalescent process. Two commonly used constant population size models, one hypothesizing no migration among populations and one hypothesizing equal rates of migration among populations, were found to be statistically inconsistent with the observed patterns of variation. The other three models, which involved either recent divergence among populations coupled with large changes in populations size, unequal migration rates among populations, or selection, were all found to be consistent with the observed patterns of variation. Assuming selective neutrality, these results suggest that either the populations have all descended from a common ancestral population within the last ~50,000 years and have all suffered large declines in effective population size since that time, or that they have a more ancient divergence time but are connected by low levels of gene flow. These conclusions rest on the assumption of selective neutrality. With the methods employed, it was not possible to simultaneously test hypotheses of both selective neutrality and population structure.