Arrival and onset of breeding of three passerine birds in eastern Finland tracks climatic variation and phenology of insects

Anthropogenic climate change poses a challenge to the annual cycles of migratory birds. It has become urgent to understand whether migratory birds are able to advance their spring phenology when the climate is warming and whether they are able to adjust these phenological phases to the spring phenology in their breeding areas. In this work, we studied long‐term trends in first arrival and onset of breeding for three passerine birds in eastern Finland; the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, the common redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus and the great tit Parus major. The pied flycatcher and the common redstart are long‐distance migrants while the great tit is a partial migrant in Finland. We asked what environmental variables best explain the first arrival or onset of breeding, if there is evidence of ‘thermal delay’ (long‐term increase in the accumulated temperatures) at arrival or onset of breeding and if the interannual variation in the onset of breeding correlates with variation in spring phenology of local insects. We found that the pied flycatcher and the common redstart had advanced their first arrival (explained by increased temperatures at the migration route), but we found no long‐term change in the onset of breeding (explained by local temperatures). Also, the onset of breeding of the great tit is tracking local temperatures. We found no or only weak evidence of thermal delay at arrival or onset of breeding for any of the species. The onsets of breeding for the pied flycatcher and the great tit are also closely tracking the spring phenology of the local insects. The stable or increasing population sizes of all three species in Finland could be a result from their ability to effectively track climatic and environmental variation.     

Migration speeds among eleven species of long-distance migrating passerines across Europe, the desert and eastern Africa

Based on phenology, passage and median dates gathered from large number of study sites, we measured autumn and spring migration speeds of eleven long distance migratory passerines in four different ecogeographic sectors: Europe, desert, north-eastern and eastern Africa. Results demonstrate that, during the southward autumn migration, late-departing species, such as lesser whitethroat Sylvia curruca , garden warbler S. borin , spotted flycatcher Muscicapa striata , whitethroat S. borin , and willow warbler Phylloscopus trochilus cover their migration route with a slower average migration speed across Europe than do early migrating species. During spring migration, late-departing species (marsh warbler Acrocephalus palustris , garden warbler, spotted flycatcher, red-backed shrike Lanius collurio ) across north-eastern Africa showed a higher speed than early migrating species. Our results show overall shorter migration duration estimates in spring than autumn. Sector-wise seasonal comparisons of duration indicate that migration journey in the African and desert sectors are covered in a relatively shorter time in spring than in autumn. Periods required to cover the distance between northern latitude breeding grounds and desert during both seasons were equivalent.     

Patterns of bird migration phenology in South Africa suggest northern hemisphere climate as the most consistent driver of change

Current knowledge of phenological shifts in Palearctic bird migration is largely based on data collected on migrants at their breeding grounds; little is known about the phenology of these birds at their nonbreeding grounds, and even less about that of intra‐African migrants. Because climate change patterns are not uniform across the globe, we can expect regional disparities in bird phenological responses. It is also likely that they vary across species, as species show differences in the strength of affinities they have with particular habitats and environments. Here, we examine the arrival and departure of nine Palearctic and seven intra‐African migratory species in the central Highveld of South Africa, where the former spend their nonbreeding season and the latter their breeding season. Using novel analytical methods based on bird atlas data, we show phenological shifts in migration of five species – red‐backed shrike, spotted flycatcher, common sandpiper, white‐winged tern (Palearctic migrants), and diederik cuckoo (intra‐African migrant) – between two atlas periods: 1987–1991 and 2007–2012. During this time period, Palearctic migrants advanced their departure from their South African nonbreeding grounds. This trend was mainly driven by waterbirds. No consistent changes were observed for intra‐African migrants. Our results suggest that the most consistent drivers of migration phenological shifts act in the northern hemisphere, probably at the breeding grounds.     

Winter rainfall predicts phenology in widely separated populations of a migrant songbird

Climate change is affecting behaviour and phenology in many animals. In migratory birds, weather patterns both at breeding and at non-breeding sites can influence the timing of spring migration and breeding. However, variation in responses to weather across a species range has rarely been studied, particularly among populations that may winter in different locations. We used prior knowledge of migratory connectivity to test the influence of weather from predicted non-breeding sites on bird phenology in two breeding populations of a long-distance migratory bird species separated by 3,000 km. We found that winter rainfall showed similar associations with arrival and egg-laying dates in separate breeding populations on an east–west axis: greater rainfall in Jamaica and eastern Mexico was generally associated with advanced American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) phenology in Ontario and Alberta, respectively. In Ontario, these patterns of response could largely be explained by changes in the behaviour of individual birds, i.e., phenotypic plasticity. By explicitly incorporating migratory connectivity into responses to climate, our data suggest that widely separated breeding populations can show independent and geographically specific associations with changing weather conditions. The tendency of individuals to delay migration and breeding following dry winters could result in population declines due to predicted drying trends in tropical areas and the tight linkage between early arrival/breeding and reproductive success in long-distance migrants.     

Personality-specific carry-over effects on breeding

Carry-over effects describe the phenomenon whereby an animal''s previous conditions influence its subsequent performance. Carry-over effects are unlikely to affect individuals uniformly, but the factors modulating their strength are poorly known. Variation in the strength of carry-over effects may reflect individual differences in pace-of-life: slow-paced, shyly behaved individuals are thought to favour an allocation to self-maintenance over current reproduction, compared to their fast-paced, boldly behaved conspecifics (the pace-of-life syndrome hypothesis). Therefore, detectable carry-over effects on breeding should be weaker in bolder individuals, as they should maintain an allocation to reproduction irrespective of previous conditions, while shy individuals should experience stronger carry-over effects. We tested this prediction in black-legged kittiwakes breeding in Svalbard. Using miniature biologging devices, we measured non-breeding activity of kittiwakes and monitored their subsequent breeding performance. We report a number of negative carry-over effects of non-breeding activity on breeding, which were generally stronger in shyer individuals: more active winters were followed by later breeding phenology and poorer breeding performance in shy birds, but these effects were weaker or undetected in bolder individuals. Our study quantifies individual variability in the strength of carry-over effects on breeding and provides a mechanism explaining widespread differences in individual reproductive success.     

Spring migration phenology of birds in the Northern Prairie region is correlated with local climate change

ABSTRACT In apparent response to recent periods of global warming, some migratory birds now arrive earlier at stopover sites and breeding grounds. However, the effects of this warming on arrival times vary among locations and species. Migration timing is generally correlated with temperature, with earlier arrival during warm years than during cold years, so local variation in climate change might produce different effects on migration phenology in different geographic regions. We examined trends in first spring arrival dates (FADs) for 44 species of common migrant birds in South Dakota (1971–2006) and Minnesota (1964–2005) using observations compiled by South Dakota and Minnesota Ornithologists’ Unions. We found significant trends in FAD over time for 20 species (18 arriving earlier and two later) in South Dakota and 16 species (all earlier) in Minnesota. Of these species, 10 showed similar significant trends for both states. All 10 of these species exhibited significantly earlier arrival, and all were early spring migrants, with median FADs before 10 April in both states. Eighteen of the 44 species showed significant negative correlations of FADs with either winter (December–February) or spring (arrival month plus previous month) temperatures in one or both states. Interestingly, spring temperatures in both South Dakota and Minnesota did not warm significantly from 1971–2006, but winter temperatures in both states warmed significantly over the same time period. This suggests that the warmer winters disproportionately affected early spring migrants, especially those associated with aquatic habitats (seven of the 10 species showing significantly earlier spring arrival in both states). The stronger response to climate change by early spring migrants in our study is consistent with the results of several other studies, and suggests that migrants, especially early migrants, are capable of responding to local temperature conditions experienced on wintering grounds or along the migration route.     

Impact of temperature on the breeding performance and selection patterns in lesser kestrels Falco naumanni

Adjusting breeding phenology to climate fluctuations can be problematic for migratory birds as they have to account for local environmental conditions on the breeding grounds while migrating from remote wintering areas. Predicting general responses to climate change is not straightforward, because these responses vary between migrant species due to the species‐specific ecological drivers of breeding behaviour. Therefore more information is needed on species with different ecological requirements, including data on heritability of migration, factors driving phenological changes and how climate affects selection pressures. Here, we measure heritability in settlement dates and the effect of local climate at the breeding grounds on settlement dates, reproductive success and selection patterns in a French population of a trans‐Saharan migratory insectivorous raptor, the lesser kestrel Falco naumanni, monitored and ringed since 1996. Heritability of settlement dates was low (0.07 ± 0.03), indicating a weak evolutionary potential. Nevertheless, plasticity in settlement dates in response to temperatures allowed earlier settlement when early spring was warmer than average. Reproductive success and selection patterns were strongly affected by temperature during settlement and chick rearing respectively. Warmer spring decreased selection for earlier settling and warmer early summer increased reproductive success. Interestingly, selection for earlier settling was more intense in cooler springs, contrasting with patterns from passerines lagging behind food peaks. Altogether, these results suggest a positive effect of warmer temperatures on breeding performances of lesser kestrels most likely because the French population is at the coolest boundary of the species European breeding range.     

Quo vadis amphibia? Global warming and breeding phenology in frogs,toads and salamanders

As the earth is getting warmer, many animals and plants have shifted their timing of breeding towards earlier dates. However, there is substantial variation between populations in phenological shifts that typically goes unexplained. Identification of the different location and species characteristics that drive such variable responses to global warming is crucial if we are to make predictions for how projected climate change scenarios will play out on local and global scales. Here we conducted a phylogenetically controlled meta‐analysis of breeding phenology across frogs, toads and salamanders to examine the extent of variation in amphibian breeding phenology in response to global climate change. We show that there is strong geographic variation in response to global climate change, with species at higher latitudes exhibiting a more pronounced shift to earlier breeding than those at lower latitudes. Our analyses suggest that this latitude effect is a result of both the increased temperature (but not precipitation) at higher latitudes as well as a greater responsiveness by northern populations of amphibians to this change in temperature. We suggest that these effects should reinforce any direct effect of increasing warming at higher latitudes on breeding phenology. In contrast, we found very little contribution from other location factors or species traits. There was no evidence for a phylogenetic signal on advancing breeding phenology or responsiveness to temperature, suggesting that the amphibians that have been studied to date respond similarly to global warming.     

Climatic effects and phenological mismatch in cuckoo–host interactions: a role for host phenotypic plasticity in laying date?

Climatic effects on breeding phenology vary across organisms and therefore might promote a phenological mismatch in ecologically interacting species, including those engaged in coevolutionary interactions such as brood parasites and their hosts. Recent studies suggest that climatic induced changes in migration phenology may have mismatched cuckoos and their hosts in Europe. However, it is currently unknown whether cuckoo–host phenological mismatch results from different degrees of phenotypic plasticity or to different speeds of microevolutionary processes affecting hosts and parasites. Here we performed 1) cross‐sectional correlations between climate conditions and population level of phenological mismatch between the migratory brood parasite great spotted cuckoo Clamator glandarius and its main resident host in Europe, the magpie Pica pica; and 2) a longitudinal analysis to study within‐individual variation in breeding phenology for individual hosts experiencing different climate conditions over a period of nine years (2005–2013). Cross‐sectional analyses revealed independent and contrary effects of winter and spring temperature on magpie phenology: magpie hosts tend to breed earlier those years with lower February temperatures, however, high temperature in the first half of April spur individuals to lay eggs. Breeding phenology of cuckoos was tuned to that of their magpie host in time and duration. However, annual phenological mismatch between cuckoos and magpie hosts increased with NAO index and January temperature. Longitudinal analyses revealed high individual consistency in magpie host phenology, but a low influence of climate, suggesting that the climatic‐driven phenological mismatch between cuckoos and magpies at the population‐level cannot be explained by a host plastic response to climatic conditions.     

Climate change and fitness components of a migratory bird breeding in the Mediterranean region

The increase in spring temperatures in temperate regions over the last two decades has led to an advancing spring phenology, and most resident birds have responded to it by advancing their onset of breeding. The pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) is a long‐distance migrant bird with a relatively late onset of breeding with respect to both resident birds and spring phenology in Europe. In the present correlational study, we show that some fitness components of pied flycatchers are suffering from climate change in two of the southernmost European breeding populations. In both montane study areas, temperature during May increased between 1980 and 2000 and an advancement of oak leafing was detected by using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to assess tree phenology. This might result in an advancement of the peak in availability of caterpillars, the main prey during the nestling stage. Over the past 18 yr, the time of egg laying and clutch size of pied flycatchers were not affected by the increase in spring temperatures in these Mediterranean populations. However, this increase seems to have an adverse effect on the reproductive output of pied flycatchers over the same period. Our data suggest that the mismatch between the timing of peak food supply and nestling demand caused by recent climate change might result in a reduction of parental energy expenditure that is reflected in a reduction of nestling growth and survival of fledged young in our study populations. The data seem to indicate that the breeding season has not shifted and it is the environment that has shifted away from the timing of the pied flycatcher breeding season. Mediterranean pied flycatchers were not able to advance their onset of breeding, probably, because they are constrained by their late arrival date and their restricted high altitude breeding habitat selection near the southern border of their range.     

Range-wide migration corridors and non-breeding areas of a northward expanding Afro-Palaearctic migrant,the European Bee-eater Merops apiaster

Across their ranges, different populations of migratory species often use separate routes to migrate between breeding and non-breeding grounds. Recent changes in climate and land-use have led to breeding range expansions in many species but it is unclear whether these populations also establish new migratory routes, non-breeding sites and migration phenology. Thus, we compared the migration patterns of European Bee-eaters Merops apiaster from two established western (n = 5) and eastern (n = 6) breeding populations in Europe, with those from a newly founded northern population (n = 19). We aimed to relate the breeding populations to the two known non-breeding clusters in Africa, and to test for similarities of migration routes and timing between the old and new populations. Western Bee-eaters used the western flyway to destinations in West Africa; the eastern birds uniformly headed south to southern African non-breeding sites, confirming a complete separation in time and space between these long-established populations. The recently founded northern population, however, also used a western corridor, but crossed the Mediterranean further east than the western population and overwintered mainly in a new non-breeding area in southern Congo/northern Angola. The migration routes and the new non-breeding range overlapped only slightly with the western, but not with the eastern, population. In contrast, migration phenology appeared to differ between the western and both the northern and the eastern populations, with tracked birds from the western population migrating 2–4 weeks earlier. The northern population thus shares some spatial traits with western Bee-eaters, but similar phenology only with eastern population. This divergence highlights the adjustments in the timing of migration to local environmental conditions in newly founded populations, and a parallel establishment of new breeding and non-breeding sites.     

Early springs and breeding performance in two sympatric duck species with different migration strategies

The capacity of migratory species to adapt to climate change may depend on their migratory and reproductive strategies. For example, reproductive output is likely to be influenced by how well migration and nesting are timed to temporal patterns of food abundance, or by temperature variations during the brood rearing phase. Based on two decades (1988–2009) of waterfowl counts from a boreal catchment in southern Finland we assessed how variation in ice break‐up date affected nesting phenology and breeding success in two sympatric duck species, Mallard Anas platyrhynchos and Eurasian Teal Anas crecca. In Fennoscandia these species have similar breeding habitat requirements but differ in migration distance; Teal migrate roughly seven times as far as do Mallard. Annual ice break‐up date was used as a proxy of spring ‘earliness’ to test the potential effect of climate change on hatching timing and breeding performance. Both species were capable of adapting their nesting phenology, and bred earlier in years when spring was early. However, the interval from ice break‐up to hatching tended to be longer in early springs in both species, so that broods hatched relatively later than in late springs. Ice break‐up date did not appear to influence annual number of broods per pair or annual mean brood size in either species. Our study therefore does not suggest that breeding performance in Teal and Mallard is negatively affected by advancement of ice break‐up at the population level. However, both species showed a within‐season decline in brood size with increasing interval between ice break‐up and hatching. Our study therefore highlights a disparity between individuals in their capacity to adjust to ice break‐up date, late breeders having a lower breeding success than early breeders. We speculate that breeding success of both species may therefore decline should a consistent trend towards earlier springs occur.     

Novel methods reveal shifts in migration phenology of barn swallows in South Africa

Many migratory bird species, including the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), have advanced their arrival date at Northern Hemisphere breeding grounds, showing a clear biotic response to recent climate change. Earlier arrival helps maintain their synchrony with earlier springs, but little is known about the associated changes in phenology at their non-breeding grounds. Here, we examine the phenology of barn swallows in South Africa, where a large proportion of the northern European breeding population spends its non-breeding season. Using novel analytical methods based on bird atlas data, we show that swallows first arrive in the northern parts of the country and gradually appear further south. On their north-bound journey, they leave South Africa rapidly, resulting in mean stopover durations of 140 days in the south and 180 days in the north. We found that swallows are now leaving northern parts of South Africa 8 days earlier than they did 20 years ago, and so shortened their stay in areas where they previously stayed the longest. By contrast, they did not shorten their stopover in other parts of South Africa, leading to a more synchronized departure across the country. Departure was related to environmental variability, measured through the Southern Oscillation Index. Our results suggest that these birds gain their extended breeding season in Europe partly by leaving South Africa earlier, and thus add to scarce evidence for phenology shifts in the Southern Hemisphere.     

Warm Springs,Early Lay Dates,and Double Brooding in a North American Migratory Songbird,the Black-Throated Blue Warbler

Numerous studies have correlated the advancement of lay date in birds with warming climate trends, yet the fitness effects associated with this phenological response have been examined in only a small number of species. Most of these species–primarily insectivorous cavity nesters in Europe–exhibit fitness declines associated with increasing asynchrony with prey. Here, we use 25 years of demographic data, collected from 1986 to 2010, to examine the effects of spring temperature on breeding initiation date, double brooding, and annual fecundity in a Nearctic - Neotropical migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens). Data were collected from birds breeding at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA, where long-term trends toward warmer springs have been recorded. We found that black-throated blue warblers initiated breeding earlier in warmer springs, that early breeders were more likely to attempt a second brood than those starting later in the season, and that double brooding and lay date were linked to higher annual fecundity. Accordingly, we found selection favored earlier breeding in most years. However, in contrast to studies of several other long-distance migratory species in Europe, this selection pressure was not stronger in warmer springs, indicating that these warblers were able to adjust mean lay date appropriately to substantial inter-annual variation in spring temperature. Our results suggest that this North American migratory songbird might not experience the same fecundity declines as songbirds that are unable to adjust their timing of breeding in pace with spring temperatures.     

Ecological conditions in wintering and passage areas as determinants of timing of spring migration in trans-Saharan migratory birds

1.?Climate change has been associated with shifts in the timing of biological events, including the spring arrival of migratory birds. Early arrival at breeding sites is an important life-history trait, usually associated with higher breeding success and therefore, susceptible to selection and evolution in response to changing climatic conditions. 2.?Here, we examine the effect of changes in the environmental conditions of wintering and passage areas on the mean passage time of 13 trans-Saharan passerines during their spring migration through the western Mediterranean over the 15 years from 1993 to 2007. 3.?We found that most of the species studied have been advancing the timing of their passage in recent years. However, annual variation in the mean date of passage was positively correlated with vegetation growth (measured as the normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) both in the Sahel (the region of departure) and in northern Africa (the passage area). Thus, migration dates were delayed in years with high primary productivity in passage and wintering zones. All species seem to respond similarly to NDVI in the Sahel; however, late migrants were less affected by ecological conditions in northern Africa than those migrating earlier, suggesting differences based on species ecology. 4.?Mean timing of passage was not related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), temperature or NDVI in the species-specific wintering areas (the overwintering region) when analysed in combination with the other covariates. 5.?Our findings show that ecological conditions in the winter quarters (specifically the Sahel) and en route are relevant factors influencing trends in the passage dates of trans-Saharan migratory birds on the southern fringe of Europe. Possible long-term consequences for late arriving spring migrants are discussed.     

Annual variation in long‐distance dispersal driven by breeding and non‐breeding season climatic conditions in a migratory bird

Long‐distance dispersal is a fundamental process in ecology and evolution but the factors that influence these movements remain poorly understood in most species. We used stable hydrogen isotopes to quantify the rate and direction of long‐distance immigration in a breeding population of American redstarts and to test whether the settlement decisions that result in long‐distance dispersal are driven by habitat saturation or by the phenology of breeding‐season resources. Our results provide evidence that both natal dispersal and breeding dispersal were influenced by the timing of breeding‐season phenology, with both age classes more likely to disperse north in years when the onset of breeding‐season phenology occurs earlier than normal. Yearlings were also more likely to disperse north following winters with poor habitat quality on their non‐breeding grounds, demonstrating that carry‐over effects from the non‐breeding season influence natal dispersal in this species. Collectively, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that American redstarts use the phenology of breeding season resources as a cue to select breeding sites. Our results suggest that long‐distance dispersal may allow individuals to rapidly respond to advancing phenology caused by global climate change, though their ability to do so may be constrained by long‐term decline in habitat quality predicted for their tropical non‐breeding grounds.     

Variation in climate warming along the migration route uncouples arrival and breeding dates

Migratory species are of special concern in the face of global climate change, since they may be affected by changes in the wintering area, along the migration route and at the breeding grounds. Here we show that migration and breeding times of a trans‐Saharan migrant, the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, closely follow local temperatures along the migration route and at the breeding grounds. Because of differences in long‐term temperature trends of short within‐spring periods, the migration period and the time interval between migration and breeding dates of this species have extended in SW Finland. Temperatures in northern parts of Central Europe have risen at the time when the first migrants arrive there, facilitating their migration northward. Temperatures later in the spring have not changed, and the last individuals arrive at the same time as before. The timing of breeding has not advanced because temperatures at the breeding site after arrival have not changed. These results show that the pied flycatchers can speed up their migration in response to rising temperatures along the migration route. Our results strongly indicate that the effects of climate change have to be studied at the appropriate time and geographical scales for each species and population concerned.     

The interacting effects of food,spring temperature,and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird

Although long‐distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double‐brooded long‐distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark–recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late‐season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black‐throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species.     

Ecological factors associated with the breeding and migratory phenology of high-latitude breeding western sandpipers

Environmental conditions influence the breeding and migratory patterns of many avian species and may have particularly dramatic effects on long-distance migrants that breed at northern latitudes. Environment, however, is only one of the ecological variables affecting avian phenology, and recent work shows that migration tactics may be strongly affected by changes in predator populations. We used long-term data from 1978 to 2000 to examine the interactions between snowmelt in western Alaska in relation to the breeding or migration phenologies of small shorebirds and their raptor predators. Although the sandpipers’ time of arrival at Alaskan breeding sites corresponded with mean snowmelt, late snowmelts did delay breeding. These delays, however, did not persist to southward migration through British Columbia, likely due to the birds’ ability to compensate for variance in the length of the breeding season. Raptor phenology at an early stopover site in British Columbia was strongly related to snowmelt, so that in years of early snowmelt falcons appeared earlier during the sandpipers’ southbound migration. These differential effects indicate that earlier snowmelt due to climate change may alter the ecological dynamics of the predator–prey system.     

Age‐specific responses to spring temperature in a migratory songbird: older females attempt more broods in warmer springs

Increasing global temperature has led to an interest in plasticity in the timing of annual events; however, little is known about the demographic consequences of changing phenology. Annual reproductive success varies significantly among individuals within a population, and some of that variation has to do with the number of broods attempted by reproducing adults. In birds, female age and the timing of reproduction are often predictors of multiple breeding. We hypothesize that double brooding rates may be affected by spring temperature and that the response may vary with female age. We used a long‐term reproductive data set for a migratory songbird, the prothonotary warbler (Protonotaria citrea) to assess which factors influence (a) an individual female's probability of double brooding and (b) the annual variation in population‐level double brooding rates. We found that older and earlier nesting birds are more likely to double brood, and that there is no evidence for senescence with regard to this trait such that the oldest females were most likely to double brood. Previous experience with double brooding (i.e., whether the female double brooded in the previous year) significantly increased the probability of doing so again. When assessing annual variation in the double brooding rate, we found an interaction between spring temperature and the proportion of older females in the population. Specifically, older females are more likely to double brood in years with warmer springs, but this relationship was not seen for younger females. Previous studies have shown that warmer temperatures lead to earlier and narrower peaks in resources and we hypothesize that these peaks are more available to older and earlier arriving females, enabling them to successfully raise more than one brood in a season. Understanding how different age classes respond to changing environmental conditions will be imperative to managing declining species.