Matrix quality and disturbance frequency drive evolution of species behavior at habitat boundaries

Previous theoretical studies suggest that a species' landscape should influence the evolution of its dispersal characteristics, because landscape structure affects the costs and benefits of dispersal. However, these studies have not considered the evolution of boundary crossing, that is, the tendency of animals to cross from habitat to nonhabitat (“matrix”). It is important to understand this dispersal behavior, because of its effects on the probability of population persistence. Boundary‐crossing behavior drives the rate of interaction with matrix, and thus, it influences the rate of movement among populations and the risk of dispersal mortality. We used an individual‐based, spatially explicit model to simulate the evolution of boundary crossing in response to landscape structure. Our simulations predict higher evolved probabilities of boundary crossing in landscapes with more habitat, less fragmented habitat, higher‐quality matrix, and more frequent disturbances (i.e., fewer generations between local population extinction events). Unexpectedly, our simulations also suggest that matrix quality and disturbance frequency have much stronger effects on the evolution of boundary crossing than either habitat amount or habitat fragmentation. Our results suggest that boundary‐crossing responses are most affected by the costs of dispersal through matrix and the benefits of escaping local extinction events. Evolution of optimal behavior at habitat boundaries in response to the landscape may have implications for species in human‐altered landscapes, because this behavior may become suboptimal if the landscape changes faster than the species' evolutionary response to that change. Understanding how matrix quality and habitat disturbance drive evolution of behavior at boundaries, and how this in turn influences the extinction risk of species in human‐altered landscapes should help us identify species of conservation concern and target them for management.     

Implications of nonrandom seed abscission and global stilling for migration of wind‐dispersed plant species

Migration of plant populations is a potential survival response to climate change that depends critically on seed dispersal. Biological and physical factors determine dispersal and migration of wind‐dispersed species. Recent field and wind tunnel studies demonstrate biological adaptations that bias seed release toward conditions of higher wind velocity, promoting longer dispersal distances and faster migration. However, another suite of international studies also recently highlighted a global decrease in near‐surface wind speeds, or ‘global stilling’. This study assessed the implications of both factors on potential plant population migration rates, using a mechanistic modeling framework. Nonrandom abscission was investigated using models of three seed release mechanisms: (i) a simple drag model; (ii) a seed deflection model; and (iii) a ‘wear and tear’ model. The models generated a single functional relationship between the frequency of seed release and statistics of the near‐surface wind environment, independent of the abscission mechanism. An Inertial‐Particle, Coupled Eulerian‐Lagrangian Closure model (IP‐CELC) was used to investigate abscission effects on seed dispersal kernels and plant population migration rates under contemporary and potential future wind conditions (based on reported global stilling trends). The results confirm that nonrandom seed abscission increased dispersal distances, particularly for light seeds. The increases were mitigated by two physical feedbacks: (i) although nonrandom abscission increased the initial acceleration of seeds from rest, the sensitivity of the seed dispersal to this initial condition declined as the wind speed increased; and (ii) while nonrandom abscission increased the mean dispersal length, it reduced the kurtosis of seasonal dispersal kernels, and thus the chance of long‐distance dispersal. Wind stilling greatly reduced the modeled migration rates under biased seed release conditions. Thus, species that require high wind velocities for seed abscission could experience threshold‐like reductions in dispersal and migration potential if near‐surface wind speeds continue to decline.     

Drivers of plant species’ potential to spread: the importance of demography versus seed dispersal

Understanding the ability of plants to spread is important for assessing conservation strategies, landscape dynamics, invasiveness and ability to cope with climate change. While long‐distance seed dispersal is often viewed as a key process in population spread, the importance of inter‐specific variation in demography is less explored. Indeed, the relative importance of demography vs seed dispersal in determining population spread is still little understood. We modelled species’ potential for population spread in terms of annual migration rates for a set of species inhabiting dry grasslands of central Europe. Simultaneously, we estimated the importance of demographic (population growth rate) versus long‐distance dispersal (99th percentile dispersal distance) characteristics for among‐species differences in modelled population spread. In addition, we assessed how well simple proxy measures related to demography (the number and survival of seedlings, the survival of flowering individuals) and dispersal (plant height, terminal velocity and wind speed during dispersal) predicted modelled spread rates. We found that species’ demographic rates were the more powerful predictors of species’ modelled potential to spread than dispersal. Furthermore, our simple proxies were correlated with modelled species spread rates and together their predictive power was high. Our findings highlight that for understanding variation among species in their potential for population spread, detailed information on local demography and dispersal might not always be necessary. Simple proxies or assumptions that are based primarily on species demography could be sufficient.     

种子的长距离风传播模型研究进展

 植物种子的长距离传播在物种迁移、生物入侵、保护生物学等领域有重要的生态和进化意义。种子传播有很多方式,开阔草原等地区的草本植物和许多热带和温带的树木都是通过风传播种子的。风传播的方式最适合进行种子长距离传播现象的模拟研究。种子的风传播模型是传播生态研究的一个重要领域,尤其是种子的长距离风传播模型,对于外来入侵植物的扩散和破碎化景观中植物种群的基因交流等生态过程研究举足轻重,然而国内鲜见这方面的研究成果。本文综述了种子长距离风传播现象研究的背景和意义,分析了风传播种子模型的基本形式和构成原理,并分别就现象模型和机理模型的相关研究进展进行了总结,同时指出了未来发展的几个重要方向。种子的风传播模型可以分为现象模型和机理模型两类,现象模型按种子传播核心的形式包括短尾模型、偏峰长尾模型和混合传播核心模型,后两者对于长距离传播数据的模拟可以取得很好的效果。机理模型按照模拟机制可分为欧拉对流扩散模型和拉格郎日随机模型两类。本文重点介绍了种子的长距离风传播现象的形成机理和两类机理模型的参数构成和处理方式。适合种子脱落的天气和适合传播的天气的同步性可能是形成种子长距离风传播的一个重要前提,林缘和地表存在的上升气流及大风和暴风中形成的速度梯度都可能对于种子的长距离传播有重要的作用。机理模型的操作因子主要包括生物方面的因子、气象方面的因子和地形方面的因子。同时对目前几个应用比较成功的机理模型进行了简要的介绍和评价,包括倾斜羽毛模型、对流-扩散-下降模型、无掩蔽模型、背景模型、WINDISPER及其改进模型和PAPPUS模型。最后指出,目前在风传播种子的长距离模型研究中,对草本植物种子的传播模拟的投入明显不如树木种子的长距离传播模拟,对于破碎化景观中种子长距离的风传播的研究还存在很大的差距,而对提高机理模型预测能力的高分辨率物理环境数据输入技术的需求则为多学科交叉提供了很好的机会。     

Population‐level consequences of risky dispersal

Achieving sufficient connectivity between populations is essential for persistence, but costs of dispersal may select against individual traits or behaviours that, if present, would improve connectivity. Existing dispersal models tend to ignore the multitude of risks to individuals: while many assess the effect of mortality costs, there is also a risk of failing to find new habitat, especially when the entire inhabitable area remains both small and fragmented. There are few known rules governing whether individuals evolve to disperse more, or less, than what is ideal for population connectivity and persistence. Here we aim to fill this gap, while also noting that evolution might not only produce suboptimal dispersal behaviour: it also influences individual heterogeneity in dispersal. Intuitively, we might expect heterogeneity to improve connectivity, as some individuals will travel far. However, we show that this is only true if dispersal distances on average are quite short; heterogeneity can also lead to reduced connectivity because it can reduce the proportion of the most profitable (‘safest’) intermediate dispersal distances. In general, our results show that conditions typically associated with conservation concerns (small and fragmented habitats inhabited by a species with a low birth rate) are also ones that are most likely to lead to suboptimal dispersal traits. This prompts the question of assisted dispersal in cases of urgent conservation concern.     

Density‐dependent dispersal and the formation of range borders.

Knowledge about the mechanisms of range formation is crucial for scientifically based species conservation strategies in the face of ongoing global climate change. In recent years an increasing amount of studies have focused on the influences of density‐dependent dispersal on demographic and biogeographical patterns. However, it still remains unclear, to what extent and in what ways this strategy would affect the range formation of species. In order to fill this gap, we present a study using individual‐based simulations of a species with discrete generations living along a dispersal mortality gradient. We compare the evolution of range sizes for species following density‐dependent and density‐independent emigration. Furthermore we assess the influence of environmental stochasticity and Allee effects on range formation, as both processes are known to play an important role for dispersal evolution. We find that density‐dependent dispersal always results in much wider ranges than unconditional dispersal. Increasing environmental stochasticity, a predicted consequence of climate change, can remarkably expand the ranges of species living in such connectivity gradients if dispersal decisions are based on local population density. A strong Allee effect causes range contraction for both strategies, but the effect is considerably less dramatic under density‐dependent compared to density‐independent emigration. We strongly recommend accounting for these findings in future attempts to model species’ range shifts due to climate change.     

Eco‐evolution on the edge during climate change

We urgently need to predict species responses to climate change to minimize future biodiversity loss and ensure we do not waste limited resources on ineffective conservation strategies. Currently, most predictions of species responses to climate change ignore the potential for evolution. However, evolution can alter species ecological responses, and different aspects of evolution and ecology can interact to produce complex eco‐evolutionary dynamics under climate change. Here we review how evolution could alter ecological responses to climate change on species warm and cool range margins, where evolution could be especially important. We discuss different aspects of evolution in isolation, and then synthesize results to consider how multiple evolutionary processes might interact and affect conservation strategies. On species cool range margins, the evolution of dispersal could increase range expansion rates and allow species to adapt to novel conditions in their new range. However, low genetic variation and genetic drift in small range‐front populations could also slow or halt range expansions. Together, these eco‐evolutionary effects could cause a three‐step, stop‐and‐go expansion pattern for many species. On warm range margins, isolation among populations could maintain high genetic variation that facilitates evolution to novel climates and allows species to persist longer than expected without evolution. This ‘evolutionary extinction debt’ could then prevent other species from shifting their ranges. However, as climate change increases isolation among populations, increasing dispersal mortality could select for decreased dispersal and cause rapid range contractions. Some of these eco‐evolutionary dynamics could explain why many species are not responding to climate change as predicted. We conclude by suggesting that resurveying historical studies that measured trait frequencies, the strength of selection, or heritabilities could be an efficient way to increase our eco‐evolutionary knowledge in climate change biology.     

Dispersal and species’ responses to climate change

Dispersal is fundamental in determining biodiversity responses to rapid climate change, but recently acquired ecological and evolutionary knowledge is seldom accounted for in either predictive methods or conservation planning. We emphasise the accumulating evidence for direct and indirect impacts of climate change on dispersal. Additionally, evolutionary theory predicts increases in dispersal at expanding range margins, and this has been observed in a number of species. This multitude of ecological and evolutionary processes is likely to lead to complex responses of dispersal to climate change. As a result, improvement of models of species’ range changes will require greater realism in the representation of dispersal. Placing dispersal at the heart of our thinking will facilitate development of conservation strategies that are resilient to climate change, including landscape management and assisted colonisation. Synthesis This article seeks synthesis across the fields of dispersal ecology and evolution, species distribution modelling and conservation biology. Increasing effort focuses on understanding how dispersal influences species' responses to climate change. Importantly, though perhaps not broadly widely‐recognised, species' dispersal characteristics are themselves likely to alter during rapid climate change. We compile evidence for direct and indirect influences that climate change may have on dispersal, some ecological and others evolutionary. We emphasise the need for predictive modelling to account for this dispersal realism and highlight the need for conservation to make better use of our existing knowledge related to dispersal.     

Costs and benefits of non‐random seed release for long‐distance dispersal in wind‐dispersed plant species

The dispersal ability of plants is a major factor driving ecological responses to global change. In wind‐dispersed plant species, non‐random seed release in relation to wind speeds has been identified as a major determinant of dispersal distances. However, little information is available about the costs and benefits of non‐random abscission and the consequences of timing for dispersal distances. We asked: 1) to what extent is non‐random abscission able to promote long‐distance dispersal and what is the effect of potentially increased pre‐dispersal risk costs? 2) Which meteorological factors and respective timescales are important for maximizing dispersal? These questions were addressed by combining a mechanistic modelling approach and field data collection for herbaceous wind‐dispersed species. Model optimization with a dynamic dispersal approach using measured hourly wind speed showed that plants can increase long‐distance dispersal by developing a hard wind speed threshold below which no seeds are released. At the same time, increased risk costs limit the possibilities for dispersal distance gain and reduce the optimum level of the wind speed threshold, in our case (under representative Dutch meteorological conditions) to a threshold of 5–6 m s^–1. The frequency and predictability (auto‐correlation in time) of pre‐dispersal seed‐loss had a major impact on optimal non‐random abscission functions and resulting dispersal distances. We observed a similar, but more gradual, bias towards higher wind speeds in six out of seven wind‐dispersed species under natural conditions. This confirmed that non‐random abscission exists in many species and that, under local Dutch meteorological conditions, abscission was biased towards winds exceeding 5–6 m s^–1. We conclude that timing of seed release can vastly enhance dispersal distances in wind‐dispersed species, but increased risk costs may greatly limit the benefits of selecting wind conditions for long‐distance dispersal, leading to moderate seed abscission thresholds, depending on local meteorological conditions and disturbances.     

Travelling to a former sea floor: colonization of forests by understorey plant species on land recently reclaimed from the sea

Questions: What are important forest characteristics determining colonization of forest patches by forest understorey species? Location: Planted forests on land recently reclaimed from the sea, the Netherlands. Methods: We related the distribution of forest specialist species in the understorey of 55 forests in Dutch IJsselmeer polders to the following forest characteristics: age, area, connectivity, distance to mainland (as a proxy for distance to seed source) and path density. We used species of the Fraxino‐Ulmetum association for the Netherlands as reference for species that could potentially occur in the study area. Results: Area and age of the surveyed forests explained a large part of the variation in overall species composition and species number of forest plant species. The importance of connectivity and distance to the mainland of forest habitats became apparent only at a more detailed level of dispersal groups and individual species. The importance of forest parameters differed between dispersal groups and also between individual species. After 60 years, 75% of the potential pool of wind‐dispersed species has reached the polders, whereas this was only 50% for species lacking specific adaptations to long‐distance dispersal. However, the average percentage of successful colonizing species present per forest was substantially lower, ranging from 15 to 37%. Conclusions: The data strongly suggest that the colonization process in polder forests is still in its initial phase, during which easily dispersed species dominate the vegetation. Colonization success of common species that lack adaptations to long‐distance dispersal is affected by spatial configuration of the forests, and most rare species that could potentially occur in these forests are still absent. Implications for conservation of rare species in fragmented landscapes are discussed.     

Wind dispersal in freshwater wetlands: Knowledge for conservation and restoration

Questions: For wetland plants, dispersal by wind is often overlooked because dispersal by water is generally assumed to be the key dispersal process. This literature review addresses the role of seed dispersal by wind in wetlands. Why is wind dispersal relevant in wetlands? Which seeds are dispersed by wind and how far? And how can our understanding of wind dispersal be applied to wetland conservation and restoration? Methods: Literature review. Results and conclusions: Wind is a widely available seed dispersal vector in wetlands and can transport many seeds over long distances. Unlike water, wind can transport seeds in all directions and is therefore important for dispersal to upstream wetlands and to wetlands not connected by surface water flows. Wind dispersal transports seeds to a wider range of sites than water, and therefore reaches more sites but with lower seed densities. Many wetland plant species have adaptations to facilitate wind dispersal. Dispersal distances increase with decreasing falling velocity of seeds, increasing seed release height and selective release mechanisms. Depending on the adaptations, seeds may be dispersed by wind over many km or only a few m. The frequency of long‐distance wind dispersal events depends on these adaptations, the number of produced seeds, the structure of the surrounding vegetation, and the frequency of occurrence of suitable weather conditions. Humans reduce the frequency of successful long‐distance wind dispersal events in wetlands through wetland loss and fragmentation (which reduce the number and quality of seeds) and eutrophication (which changes the structure of the vegetation so that seed release into the wind flow becomes more difficult). This is yet another reason to focus on wetland conservation and restoration measures at increased population sizes, prevention of eutrophication, and the restoration of sites at short distances from seed sources.     

Quantifying patch‐specific seed dispersal and local population dynamics to estimate population spread of an endangered plant species

AimHabitat loss and fragmentation impose high extinction risk upon endangered plant species globally. For many endangered plant species, as the remnant habitats become smaller and more fragmented, it is vital to estimate the population spread rate of small patches in order to effectively manage and preserve them for potential future range expansion. However, population spread rate has rarely been quantified at the patch level to inform conservation strategies and management decisions. To close this gap, we quantify the patch‐specific seed dispersal and local population dynamics of Minuartia smejkalii, which is a critically endangered plant species endemic in the Czech Republic and is of urgent conservation concern.LocationŽelivka and Hrnčíře, Czechia.MethodsWe conducted demographic analyses using population projection matrices with long‐term demographic data and used an analytic mechanistic dispersal model to simulate seed dispersal. We then used information on local population dynamics and seed dispersal to estimate the population spread rate and compared the relative contributions of seed dispersal and population growth rate to the population spread rate.ResultsWe found that although both seed dispersal and population growth rate in M. smejkalii were critically limited, the population spread rate depended more strongly on the maximal dispersal distance than on the population growth rate.Main conclusionsWe recommend conservationists to largely increase the dispersal distance of M. smejkalii. Generally, efforts made to increase seed dispersal ability could largely raise efficiency and effectiveness of conservation actions for critically endangered plant species.     

Seed fate and decision‐making processes in scatter‐hoarding rodents

A mechanistic understanding of seed movement and survival is important both for the development of theoretical models of plant population dynamics, spatial spread, and community assembly, and for the conservation and management of plant communities under global change. While models of wind‐borne seed dispersal have advanced rapidly over the past two decades, models for animal‐mediated dispersal have failed to make similar progress due to their dependence on interspecific interactions and complex, context‐dependent behaviours. In this review, we synthesize the literature on seed dispersal and consumption by scatter‐hoarding, granivorous rodents and outline a strategy for development of a general mechanistic seed‐fate model in these systems. Our review decomposes seed dispersal and survival into six distinct sub‐processes (exposure, harvest, allocation, preparation, placement, and recovery), and identifies nine intermediate (latent) variables that link physical state variables (e.g. seed and animal traits, habitat structure) to decisions regarding seed allocation to hoarding or consumption, cache placement and management, and deployment of radicle‐pruning or embryo excision behaviours. We also highlight specific areas where research on these intermediate relationships is needed to improve our mechanistic understanding of scatter‐hoarder behaviour. Finally, we outline a strategy to combine detailed studies on individual functional relationships with seed‐tracking experiments in an iterative, hierarchical Bayesian framework to construct, refine, and test mechanistic models for context‐dependent, scatter‐hoarder‐mediated seed fate.     

Mechanistic analytical models for long-distance seed dispersal by wind

We introduce an analytical model, the Wald analytical long-distance dispersal (WALD) model, for estimating dispersal kernels of wind-dispersed seeds and their escape probability from the canopy. The model is based on simplifications to well-established three-dimensional Lagrangian stochastic approaches for turbulent scalar transport resulting in a two-parameter Wald (or inverse Gaussian) distribution. Unlike commonly used phenomenological models, WALD's parameters can be estimated from the key factors affecting wind dispersal--wind statistics, seed release height, and seed terminal velocity--determined independently of dispersal data. WALD's asymptotic power-law tail has an exponent of -3/2, a limiting value verified by a meta-analysis for a wide variety of measured dispersal kernels and larger than the exponent of the bivariate Student t-test (2Dt). We tested WALD using three dispersal data sets on forest trees, heathland shrubs, and grassland forbs and compared WALD's performance with that of other analytical mechanistic models (revised versions of the tilted Gaussian Plume model and the advection-diffusion equation), revealing fairest agreement between WALD predictions and measurements. Analytical mechanistic models, such as WALD, combine the advantages of simplicity and mechanistic understanding and are valuable tools for modeling large-scale, long-term plant population dynamics.     

Which plant traits predict species loss in calcareous grasslands with extinction debt?

Aim Habitat loss and degradation pose a major threat to biodiversity, which can result in the extinction of habitat characteristic species. However, many species exhibit a delayed response to environmental changes because of the slow intrinsic dynamics of populations, resulting in extinction debt. We assess directly the changes in habitat characteristic species composition by comparing historical (1923) and current inventories in highly fragmented grasslands. We aim to characterize the species that constitute extinction debt in European calcareous grasslands. Location Europe, Estonia, 59–60° N, 24–25° E. Methods We related eleven life‐history traits and selected habitat preferences to local extinctions of populations in grasslands where extinction debt has been largely paid. Traits were chosen to describe species dispersal and persistence abilities and were quantified from databases. Results The studied grasslands have lost 90% of their area and 30% of their characteristic plant populations in 90 years. Species more prone to local population extinction were characterized by shorter life span, self‐pollination, a lack of clonal growth, fewer seeds per shoot, lower average height, lower soil nitrogen preference and higher requirements for light, indicating a limited ability to tolerate the range of changes in biotic and abiotic conditions of the sites. Locally extinct populations were also characterized by wind‐dispersed seeds, lower seed weight and lower terminal velocity of seeds, suggesting that species strategies for long‐distance dispersal are not favoured in highly fragmented landscapes. Thus, both increased habitat isolation and decreased habitat quality are important in determining local population extinction. Main conclusions Populations more prone to local extinction were characterized by a number of life‐history traits, demonstrating a greater extinction risk for species with poorer abilities for local persistence and competition. Our results can be applied to less degraded grasslands where the extinction debt is not yet paid to determine those species most susceptible to future extinction.     

Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments

Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life‐history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within‐individual and among‐individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life‐history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal‐tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within‐population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year‐round residence, generating diverse forms of ‘partial migration’ spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year‐round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio‐temporal population dynamics, we define a ‘partially migratory meta‐population’ system as a spatially structured set of locations that can be occupied by different sets of resident and migrant individuals in different seasons, and where locations that can support reproduction can also be linked by dispersal. We outline key forms of within‐individual and among‐individual variation and structure in migration that could arise within such systems and interact with variation in individual survival, reproduction and dispersal to create complex population dynamics and evolutionary responses across locations, seasons, years and generations. Third, we review approaches by which population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary models could be developed to test hypotheses regarding the dynamics and persistence of partially migratory meta‐populations given diverse forms of seasonal environmental variation and change, and to forecast system‐specific dynamics. To demonstrate one such approach, we use an evolutionary individual‐based model to illustrate that multiple forms of partial migration can readily co‐exist in a simple spatially structured landscape. Finally, we summarise recent empirical studies that demonstrate key components of demographic structure in partial migration, and demonstrate diverse associations with reproduction and survival. We thereby identify key theoretical and empirical knowledge gaps that remain, and consider multiple complementary approaches by which these gaps can be filled in order to elucidate population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary responses to spatio‐temporal seasonal environmental variation and change.     

Local adaptation,dispersal evolution,and the spatial eco‐evolutionary dynamics of invasion

Local adaptation and dispersal evolution are key evolutionary processes shaping the invasion dynamics of populations colonizing new environments. Yet their interaction is largely unresolved. Using a single‐species population model along a one‐dimensional environmental gradient, we show how local competition and dispersal jointly shape the eco‐evolutionary dynamics and speed of invasion. From a focal introduction site, the generic pattern predicted by our model features a temporal transition from wave‐like to pulsed invasion. Each regime is driven primarily by local adaptation, while the transition is caused by eco‐evolutionary feedbacks mediated by dispersal. The interaction range and cost of dispersal arise as key factors of the duration and speed of each phase. Our results demonstrate that spatial eco‐evolutionary feedbacks along environmental gradients can drive strong temporal variation in the rate and structure of population spread, and must be considered to better understand and forecast invasion rates and range dynamics.     

How important is long‐distance seed dispersal for the regional survival of plant species?

Long‐distance seed dispersal is generally assumed to be important for the regional survival of plant species. In this study, we quantified the importance of long‐distance seed dispersal for regional survival of plant species using wind dispersal as an example. We did this using a new approach, by first relating plant species’ dispersal traits to seed dispersal kernels and then relating the kernels to regional survival of the species. We used a recently developed and tested mechanistic seed dispersal model to calculate dispersal kernels from dispersal traits. We used data on 190 plant species and calculated their regional survival in two ways, using species distribution data from 36,800 1 km²‐grid cells and 10,754 small plots covering the Netherlands during the largest part of the 20th century. We carried out correlation and stepwise multiple regression analyses to quantify the importance of long‐distance dispersal, expressed as the 99‐percentile dispersal distance of the dispersal kernels, relative to the importance of median‐distance dispersal and other plant traits that are likely to contribute to the explanation of regional survival: plant longevity (annual, biennial, perennial), seed longevity, and plant nutrient requirement. Results show that long‐distance dispersal plays a role in determining regional survival, and is more important than median‐distance dispersal and plant longevity. However, long‐distance dispersal by wind explains only 1–3% of the variation in regional survival between species and is equally important as seed longevity and much less important than nutrient requirement. In changing landscapes such as in the Netherlands, where large‐scale eutrophication and habitat destruction took place in the 20th century, plant traits indicating ability to grow under the changed, increasingly nutrient‐rich conditions turn out to be much more important for regional survival than seed dispersal.     

Repertoire Sharing and Song Similarity between Great Tit Males Decline with Distance between Forest Fragments

Birdsong can play a critical role in establishing a territory and finding a mate among individuals from local and foreign populations. Variation in birdsong among populations can be influenced by habitat fragmentation and might affect successful dispersal among habitat fragments. We studied variation in great tit song in a long‐term study population distributed over nine forest fragments. All individual males recorded had a known dispersal history within the fragmented forest habitat. We found spatial structure of declining song‐type sharing with distance, with a marked drop from an individual’s own forest fragment to another across a habitat gap. We also found decreasing song similarity among increasingly distant fragments in terms of temporal and spectral characteristics of shared song types. The change in acoustic structure was more gradual and seemed less affected by habitat discontinuity but also showed a tight correlation with dispersal index among forest fragments. Immigrant birds shared fewer song types with neighbouring birds that were born within the same forest fragment, but not less compared to birds born in another forest fragment within the study area. Our data provide detailed insight into the relationship between song differentiation and male dispersal and contribute to our understanding of the potential role of song in reproductive exchange and avian speciation. The fact that birds in small forest fragments shared more songs than birds in larger forest fragments confirms that song analysis has potential as a tool for conservation in rare species.