Lifespan of Commodities,Part II

Lifespan of commodities is essential information for material flow analysis and material stock accounting. Lifespan data is available in the literature; however, it varies in definition and in methodology employed. This article reviews and categorizes different types of lifespan distribution and distribution estimation methodologies, and investigates the relationship and differences between lifespan definitions and estimation methodologies. Lifespan distribution of commodities can be classified into five types from two perspectives: base year for which the distribution is drawn, and vertical axis of the distribution. The methodologies for estimating lifespan distribution were classified into four types and the details of each methodology and the relationship to the definition of lifespan were also clarified. This article also examines differences in actual lifespan data—between the types of distribution, the definitions, and the employed methodologies—by comparing reported data in literature. Any of the four methodologies are theoretically applicable and provide the same value of a lifespan; however unless accurate data such as census statistics are available, lifespan data can vary, and therefore we must be very cautious about the representativeness of sample data.     

Global Phosphorus Flows in the Industrial Economy From a Production Perspective

Human activity has quadrupled the mobilization of phosphorus (P), a nonrenewable resource that is not fully recycled biologically or industrially. P is accumulated in both water and solid waste due to fertilizer application and industrial, agricultural, and animal P consumption. This paper characterizes the industrial flows, which, although smaller than the agricultural and animal flows, are an important phosphorus source contributing to the pollution of surface waters. We present the quantification of the network of flows as constrained by mass balances of the global annual metabolism of phosphorus, based on global consumption for 2004, all of which eventually ends up as waste and in the soil and water systems. We find that on a yearly basis, 18.9 million metric tons (MMT) of P is produced, of which close to 75% goes to fertilizer and the rest to industrial and others uses. Phosphoric acid is the precursor for many of the intermediate and end uses of phosphate compounds described in this study and accounts for almost 80% of all P consumed. Eventually, all of the P goes to waste: 18.5 MMT ends up in the soil as solid waste, and 1.32 MMT is emissions to air and water. Besides quantifying P flows through our economy, we also consider some possible measures that could be taken to increase the degree of recovery and optimization of this resource and others that are closely related, such as the recovery of sulfur from gypsum and wastewater (sludge), and fluorine from wet phosphoric acid production.     

The Physical Economy of the United States of America

The United States is not only the world's largest economy, but it is also one of the world's largest consumers of natural resources. The country, which is inhabited by some 5% of the world's population, uses roughly one‐fifth of the global primary energy supply and 15% of all extracted materials. This article explores long‐term trends and patterns of material use in the United States. Based on a material flow account (MFA) that is fully consistent with current standards of economy‐wide MFAs and covers domestic extraction, imports, and exports of materials for a 135‐year period, we investigated the evolution of the U.S. industrial metabolism. This process was characterized by an 18‐fold increase in material consumption, a multiplication of material use per capita, and a shift from renewable biomass toward mineral and fossil resources. In spite of considerable improvements in material intensity, no dematerialization has happened so far; in contrast to other high‐income countries, material use has not stabilized since the 1970s, but has continued to grow. This article compares patterns and trends of material use in the United States with those in Japan and the United Kingdom and discusses the factors underlying the disproportionately high level of U.S. per capita resource consumption.     

Approaches for Quantifying the Metabolism of Physical Economies: Part I: Methodological Overview

This article is the first of a two-part series that describes and compares the essential features of nine existing "physical economy" approaches for quantifying the material demands of the human economy upon the natural environment. A range of material flow analysis (MFA) and related techniques is assessed and compared in terms of several major dimensions. These include the system boundary identification for material flow sources, extents, and the key socioinstitutional entities containing relevant driving forces, as well as the nature and detailing of system components and flow interconnections, and the comprehensiveness and types of flows and materials covered.
Shared conceptual themes of a new wave of physical economy approaches are described with a brief overview of the potential applications of this broad family of methodologies. The evolving and somewhat controversial nature of the characteristics and role that define MFA is examined. This review suggests the need to specify whether MFA is a general metabolic flow measurement procedure that can be applied from micro to macrolevels of economic activity, or a more specific methodology aimed primarily at economy-wide analyses that "map" the material relations between society and nature. Some alternative options for classifying MFA are introduced for discussion before a more detailed comparative summary of the key methodological features of each approach in the second part of this two-part article.
The review is presented (1) as a reference and resource for the increasing number of policy makers and practitioners involved in industrial ecology and the evaluation of the material basis of economies and the formulation of eco-efficiency strategies, and (2) to provoke discussion and ongoing dialogue to clarify the many existing areas of discordance in environmental accounting related to material flows, and help consolidate the methodological basis and application of MFA.     

Decomposition Analysis of Waste Generation From Stocks in a Dynamic System

We conducted a decomposition analysis of material flows in a dynamic system, focusing on factors in the generation of waste consumer durables. A methodology for the analysis of consumer durables was developed and applied to three common consumer durables: cathode ray tube TVs, refrigerators, and passenger cars. The methodology decomposed changes in the numbers of waste products into three factors: changes in lifespan distribution, past trends in replacement sales, and past trends in sales for additional purchases. The decomposed equation clearly showed that the number of waste products would not necessarily be reduced by lifespan extension alone. This is because the number of waste products generated is affected not only by current lifespan distribution but also by past trends in sales for replacement and in additional purchases. The results show that changes in past replacement sales influence the current generation of waste, even if current replacement sales are declining. To reduce the generation of waste products on a short‐term basis, lifespan must be extended until the waste‐reducing effect of lifespan extension exceeds the waste‐increasing effect of the other two factors. From a long‐term perspective, controlling current replacement and additional purchases can be used to prevent future waste product generation.     

Methodology and Indicators of Economy‐wide Material Flow Accounting

This contribution presents the state of the art of economy‐wide material flow accounting. Starting from a brief recollection of the intellectual and policy history of this approach, we outline system definition, key methodological assumptions, and derived indicators. The next section makes an effort to establish data reliability and uncertainty for a number of existing multinational (European and global) material flow accounting (MFA) data compilations and discusses sources of inconsistencies and variations for some indicators and trends. The results show that the methodology has reached a certain maturity: Coefficients of variation between databases lie in the range of 10% to 20%, and correlations between databases across countries amount to an average R² of 0.95. After discussing some of the research frontiers for further methodological development, we conclude that the material flow accounting framework and the data generated have reached a maturity that warrants material flow indicators to complement traditional economic and demographic information in providing a sound basis for discussing national and international policies for sustainable resource use.     

Accounting for the Material Stock of Nations

National material stock (MS) accounts have been a neglected field of analysis in industrial ecology, possibly because of the difficulty in establishing such accounts. In this research, we propose a novel method to model national MS based on historical material flow data. This enables us to avoid the laborious data work involved with bottom‐up accounts for stocks and to arrive at plausible levels of stock accumulation for nations. We apply the method for the United States and Japan to establish a proof of concept for two very different cases of industrial development. Looking at a period of 75 years (1930–2005), we find that per capita MS has been much higher in the United States for the entire period, but that Japan has experienced much higher growth rates throughout, in line with Japan's late industrial development. By 2005, however, both Japan and the United States arrive at a very similar level of national MS of 310 to 375 tonnes per capita, respectively. This research provides new insight into the relationship between MS and flows in national economies and enables us to extend the debate about material efficiency from a narrow perspective of throughput to a broader perspective of stocks.     

Investigating Reasons for Differences in the Results of Environmental,Physical, and Hybrid Input‐Output Models

It is vital to find reasons for differences in the results of environmental input‐output (EIO), physical input‐output (PIO), and hybrid input‐output (HIO) models for industrial and environmental policy analysis. Using EIO, PIO, and HIO models, China's industrial metabolism is calculated. Four reasons were found to account for differences in the results of analysis using EIO, PIO, and HIO models: the manner in which they deal with residential consumption, service sectors, and waste recycling, and the assumption of unique sector prices. The HIO model, which treats residential consumption as sectors of the intermediate delivery matrix, is preferred to the EIO and PIO models for analyzing industrial and environmental policies. Moreover, waste recycling in five sectors—agriculture; the manufacture of paper, printing, and articles for culture, education, and sports activities; the manufacture of nonmetallic mineral products; smelting and pressing of metals; and construction—should be comprehensively considered when using the HIO model to study problems related to these five sectors. Improvements in the EIO, PIO, and HIO models and future work are also discussed.     

Assessment of the Industrial Tomato Processing Water Energy Nexus: A Case Study at a Processing Facility

Increased demand for water and energy and growing recognition of environmental issues motivate awareness of how these resources are used in industry. Industrial tomato processing consumes substantial quantities of both water and energy. To understand how these resources are used in tomato processing and what opportunities exist for improving efficiency, a water energy nexus (WEN) assessment was conducted that accounted for the various ways energy becomes embedded in water during processing by motors, pumps, fans, and boilers. The WEN assessment was conducted at an industrial tomato processing facility that processed 265 metric tonnes of fruit per hour to develop a map of water and associated energy use at each processing step. A total of 1.29 billion kilograms (kg) of water were used for the processing season, with 870 million kg routed to flumes. The analysis identified the thermal energy used to generate steam for the various heat exchangers and evaporators used during processing as the greatest source of embedded energy in process water (778,000 gigajoules per season). The electrical energy embedded in the process water totaled 4.4 million kilowatt‐hours per season, over 80% of which was attributed to pumping. Moreover, the data were used to identify opportunities to improve efficiency by adjusting water loads on equipment and developing strategies for water and energy conservation and recovery. The baseline water and energy use data provided by the WEN assessment can enable additional modeling to assess resource efficiency measures and the life cycle impact of processed tomato products.     

Platinum Group Metal Flows of Europe, Part II

A model of the use of the platinum group metals (PGMs) platinum, palladium, and rhodium in Europe has been developed and combined with a model of the environmental pressures related to PGM production. Compared to the base case presented in Part I of this pair of articles, potential changes in PGM production and use are quantified with regard to cumulative and yearly environmental impacts and PGM resource use, for the period 2005–2020. Reducing sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions of PGM producer Norilsk Nickel could cut the cumulative SO₂ emissions associated with the use of PGMs in Europe by 35%. Cleaner electricity generation in South Africa could reduce cumulative SO₂ emissions by another 9%. Increasing the recycling rate of end-of-life catalytic converters to 70% in 2020 could save 15% of the cumulative primary PGM input into car catalysts and 10% of the SO₂ emissions associated with PGM production. In 2020, PGM requirements and SO₂ emissions would be, respectively, 40% and 22% lower than the base case.
Substituting palladium for part of the platinum in diesel catalysts, coupled with a probable palladium price increase, could imply 15% more cumulative SO₂ emissions if recycling rates do not increase.
A future large-scale introduction of fuel cell vehicles would require technological improvements to significantly reduce the PGM content of the fuel cell stack. The basic design of such vehicles greatly influences the vehicle power, a key parameter in determining the total PGM requirement.     

Accounting for Fluorine: Production,Use, and Loss

Fluorine is an essential element to human health and to the chemical industry. In spite of our dependence on fluorine and fluorine compounds, we have yet to learn to use them wisely. Our fluorine history, which spans about a hundred years, has had negative effects such as hydrofluoric acid pollution caused by aluminum smelters and ozone depletion due to chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions. More recent concerns center on greenhouse effects from CFCs, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). In this article we note also that fluorine is a nonrenewable resource that is nonsubstitutable for many purposes. This article tracks fluorine from sources through conversion processes to end uses, most of which are dissipative. We present a stock‐flow model of the fluorine system. Based on this model we consider some possible measures that could be taken to increase the degree of recovery. To mention one example, a large percentage of the world demand for fluorspar could be supplied by the phosphate rock (fertilizer) industry, which currently dissipates a great deal of recoverable fluorine in waste phospho‐gypsum.     

The Metabolic Transition in Japan

The notion of a (socio‐) metabolic transition has been used to describe fundamental changes in socioeconomic energy and material use during industrialization. During the last century, Japan developed from a largely agrarian economy to one of the world's leading industrial nations. It is one of the few industrial countries that has experienced prolonged dematerialization and recently has adopted a rigorous resource policy. This article investigates changes in Japan's metabolism during industrialization on the basis of a material flow account for the period from 1878 to 2005. It presents annual data for material extraction, trade, and domestic consumption by major material group and explores the relations among population growth, economic development, and material (and energy) use. During the observed period, the size of Japan's metabolism grew by a factor of 40, and the share of mineral and fossil materials in domestic material consumption (DMC) grew to more than 90%. Much of the growth in the Japanese metabolism was based on imported materials and occurred in only 20 years after World War II (WWII), when Japan rapidly built up large stocks of built infrastructure, developed heavy industry, and adopted patterns of mass production and consumption. The surge in material use came to an abrupt halt with the first oil crisis, however. Material use stabilized, and the economy eventually began to dematerialize. Although gross domestic product (GDP) grew much faster than material use, improvements in material intensity are a relatively recent phenomenon. Japan emerges as a role model for the metabolic transition but is also exceptional in many ways.     

Regional material flow accounts for China: Examining China's natural resource use at the provincial and national level

Over the last three decades, China has experienced the most dynamic economic development lifting living standards and resulting in fast‐growing use of natural resources. In the past, the focus has been on national MFA accounts which do not do justice to the second largest economy, home to 19% of the world population and having 30% of global material use. In this research, we calculate material extraction for China at the regional level during 1995–2015 using the most recent available statistical data and applying the most up‐to‐date international calculation methods. In particular, we combine a bottom‐up and top‐down approach for constructing the dataset of China's economically used Domestic Extraction (DEU) in an integrated way. This approach also improves the Chinese national material flow accounts and allows us to present a reliable database of DE of materials for China to date. Our new dataset provides the basis for calculating material footprints and environmental impacts of China's regions. The dataset enables us to evaluate regional resource efficiency trends in China. We find that during the past two decades, China's material use has grown strongly from 11.7 billion tonnes in 1995 to 35.4 billion tonnes in 2015. Material use has accelerated between 2000 and 2010 but slowed down between 2010 and 2015 reflecting the economic contraction caused by the Global Financial Crisis which reduced the global demand for China's manufacturing and a reorientation of China's economic policy settings toward quality of growth. Unsurprisingly, different regions play different roles in the supply chain of materials, achieving different economic performances resulting in very diverse material efficiency outcomes. This information is important to allow for a targeted policy approach to increase resource efficiency, reduce environmental impacts of resource use, and grow wellbeing in China with large positive implications for global sustainability. This study provides the basis for the development of relevant resource management policies for different regions in the future.     

Probabilistic Assessment of Industrial Synergistic Systems

A probability‐based method is presented for assessing the reliability of synergistic systems and their ability to cope with the uncertainties often associated with two of a company's main types of activities: those carried out by the manufacturing department, and those carried out by the storage department. This method is based on a model focusing on the dynamic simulation of synergistic flows in terms of the mass balance. It differs from previous material flow analysis tools, which do not take into account the temporary failures occurring at the companies involved and the resulting loss of production capacity. The failure events occurring at any of the companies in a synergistic system may result in various levels of synergy failure and a short supply of resources for other companies. We therefore propose to identify the main factors responsible for a lack of synergy. We developed a dynamic stock simulation model for assessing the reliability of synergistic systems as well as that of the individual companies of a system before and after a synergy is set up. We first confirm the validity of this model by comparing the results with those based on the binomial theorem in system reliability analysis, and we then apply the model to the case of an industrial system. We conclude that companies involved in a synergistic system will inevitably be exposed to a higher risk of resource shortage because of the unsteady synergistic and outsourcing flows on which they depend. More efficient stock management methods would prevent the occurrence of the risks often associated with synergistic flows.     

Anthropogenic Carbon Stock Dynamics of Pulp and Paper Products in Germany

Carbon‐based materials (CBMs) for energetic and material purposes combine biogenic and anthropogenic carbon cycles. In the latter, numerous manufactured products with various in‐use lifespans accumulate as anthropogenic carbon stocks. Understanding the behavior of these stocks is an important requirement to estimate not only future waste amounts, source for secondary raw materials, but also the impacts and effects in carbon emissions and carbon management. Previous models have estimated material stock changes; however, a lack of research in carbon stocks is perceived. Moreover, studies follow in‐use lifespan estimation approaches, such as decay functions, which do not coincide with observed consumption and waste treatment patterns. In the first part of this article, we present a carbon stock‐flow model to analyze inter‐relationships between carbon flows and stocks from raw materials to waste treatment processes considering a consumer perspective, where the dynamics of anthropogenic carbon stocks are completely described. In the second part, we study the pulp and paper industry in Germany under a scenario approach to analyze the behavior, development, and impacts of paper stocks and flows between 2010 and 2040. The model provided coherent results, with industrial data estimating 33.9 million metric tons in 2010 in paper stocks, equivalent to 410 kilograms per person. Consumption per capita and in‐use lifespan of products were identified as the most significant variables in carbon stock building. Model simulations show a sustained growth in stocks for the next 30 years, with increase in waste and carbon emissions. But in combination with recycling and reuse mechanisms and consumption patterns, environmental impacts are reduced.     

Material Flow Accounts and Driving Factors of Economic Growth in the Philippines

This study looks into material flow trends in the Philippines from 1985 to 2010 by utilizing the methodology of economy‐wide material flow analysis. Using domestic data sources, this study presents disaggregated annual material flow trends in terms of four major material categories, namely: biomass; fossil energy carriers; ores and industrial minerals; and construction minerals. The results describe in detail the growth of material flows in a high‐density country at the onset of its development and reveal the shift of material consumption from dominance of renewable materials in 1985 to nonrenewable materials in 2010. IPAT analysis shows that the increase in material consumption was driven by population growth from 1985 to 1998 and by growth in affluence from 1999 to 2010. However, high inequalities amidst the growing economy suggest that a small group of wealthy people have influenced the acceleration of material consumption in the Philippines. The results of this research are intended to provide a thorough analysis of the processes occurring in Philippine economic growth in order to assist in tackling implications for the important issue of sustainable resource management.     

城市物质流分析框架及其指标体系构建

借鉴国内外物质流分析的研究成果,结合我国城市物质代谢特点,建立了城市物质流分析的框架及指标体系。该框架以城市社会经济系统物质通量的变化为核心,增加了对城市社会经济系统可持续能力的考察以及对城市和区域循环经济贡献的关注。论文识别了城市物质流分析中系统边界界定等关键问题,并提出了解决方法;指标体系在借鉴国家层面物质流分析指标体系的基础上,注重对城市经济系统内部循环及不同城市经济系统间的物质循环的考察,增加了再生资源输入量、内部资源回收量、可回收废物输出量、新鲜水输入量、中水回用量等指标,用于表征城市可持续发展的能力及实践成果。     

A Comprehensive Material Flow Account for Lao PDR to Inform Environmental and Sustainability Policy

Modern environmental and sustainability policy that acknowledges the linkages between socioeconomic processes and environmental pressures and impacts, and designs policies to decouple economic activity from environmental pressures and impacts, requires a sophisticated and comprehensive knowledge base. The concept of industrial metabolism provides a sound conceptual base, and material flow accounting—including primary material inputs and outflows of waste and emissions—provides a well‐accepted operationalization. Studies presenting a comprehensive material flow account for a national economy are rare, especially for developing countries. Countries such as Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR or Laos) face dual objectives of improving the material standard of living of their people while managing natural resources sustainably and mitigating adverse environmental impacts from growing resource throughput. Our research fills a knowledge gap, presents a comprehensive account of material inputs and outflows of waste and emissions for the Lao PDR national economy, and applies the accounting approach for a low‐income economy in Asia. We present a material balance for the years 2000 and 2015. For this research, we used data from Lao PDR national statistics and the accounting guidelines of the European Statistical Office (Eurostat), which pioneered the use of material flow data as part of its official statistical reporting. We demonstrate the feasibility of the accounting approach and discuss the robustness of results using uncertainty analysis conducted with statistical approaches commonly used in the field of industrial ecology, including Gauss's law of error propagation and Monte Carlo simulation. We find that the fast‐changing scale and composition of Lao PDR material flows, waste, and emissions presents challenges to the existing policy capacity and will require investment into governance of changed patterns of material use, waste disposal, and emissions. We consider the data analysis sufficiently robust to inform such a change in policy direction.     

Information Content,Complexity, and Uncertainty in Material Flow Analysis

Material Flow Analysis (MFA) is a useful method for modeling, understanding, and optimizing sociometabolic systems. Among others, MFAs can be distinguished by two general system properties: First, they differ in their complexity, which depends on system structure and size. Second, they differ in their inherent uncertainty, which arises from limited data quality. In this article, uncertainty and complexity in MFA are approached from a systems perspective and expressed as formally linked phenomena. MFAs are, in a graph‐theoretical sense, understood as networks. The uncertainty and complexity of these networks are computed by use of information measures from the field of theoretical ecology. The size of a system is formalized as a function of its number of flows. It defines the potential information content of an MFA system and holds as a reference against which complexity and uncertainty are gauged. Integrating data quality measures, the uncertainty of an MFA before and after balancing is determined. The actual information content of an MFA is measured by relating its uncertainty to its potential information content. The complexity of a system is expressed based on the configuration of each individual flow in relation to its neighboring flows. The proposed metrics enable different material flow systems to be compared to one another and the role of individual flows within a system to be assessed. They provide information useful for the design of MFAs and for the communication of MFA results. For exemplification, the regional MFAs of aluminum and plastics in Austria are analyzed in this article.     

Backlighting the European Indium Recycling Potentials

With increased understanding of the effects of human activities on the environment and added awareness of the increasing societal value of natural resources, researchers have begun to focus on the characterization of elemental cycles. Indium has captured significant attention due to the potential for supply shortages and nonexistent recycling at end of life. Such a combination of potentially critical features is magnified for countries that depend on imports of indium, notably many European countries. With the aims of analyzing the dynamics of material flows and of estimating the magnitude of secondary indium sources available for recycling, the anthropogenic indium cycle in Europe has been investigated by material flow analysis. The results showed that the region is a major consumer of finished goods containing indium, and the cumulative addition of indium in urban mines was estimated at about 500 tonnes of indium. We discuss these results from the perspective of closing the metal cycle in the region. Securing access to critical raw materials is a priority for Europe, but the preference for recycling metal urban mines risks to remain only theoretical for indium unless innovations in waste collection and processing unlock the development of technologies that are economically feasible and environmentally sustainable.