Estimation of Life Cycle Material Costs of Cadmium Telluride– and Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide–Photovoltaic Absorber Materials based on Life Cycle Material Flows

Chalcogenide and chalcopyrite photovoltaic (PV) technologies are highly suitable for solar energy conversion because of their high efficiency, long‐term stable performance, and low‐cost production. However, the absorber materials that are used, such as indium, gallium, and tellurium, are regarded as critical, and their limited availability can hinder market expansion. Therefore, we assess how material efficiency measures along the PV module's life cycle can reduce the net material demand of the absorber materials and thus the material costs. In order to estimate the material flows, we developed a closed‐loop model for the life cycle representing the phases module production, module collection, module recycling, and refinement. In order to reflect the variety and uncertainty in each phase, we compose three different efficiency scenarios by varying material efficiency measures on process and product levels. For each scenario, we compute the life cycle material costs based on the computed material flows. The results show that, in the long term, the material demand can be reduced down to one fourth of the required feedstock for module manufacturing; that is, three fourths of the absorber material stays in the life cycle in a very efficient scenario. Thus, total material costs along the life cycle could be significantly reduced, because the costs for material recycling are lower than the costs for “new” technical‐grade material. This reduction in life cycle material costs means that cadmium telluride– and copper indium gallium diselenide–PV can still be financially viable even if the price of the absorber materials increases significantly. Hence those technologies will still be competitive against crystalline silicon PV in the mid to long term.     

Reducing Gaseous Emissions and Resource Consumption Embodied in French Final Demand: How Much Can Waste Policies Contribute?

This study investigates the benefits of waste management policies on gaseous emissions and resource consumption caused by the final demand, in the specific case of France and in a context of economic growth. Waste input‐output analysis is implemented to compare three scenarios, depicting and combining the upward trend of final demand from 2008 to 2020, the increase in recycling rates by 2020 (encompassing the achievement of recycling objectives set by European Union Directives), and the simultaneous larger implementation of best available techniques (BAT) for waste incineration. Hybrid monetary physical input‐output tables are initially derived from balanced physical supply and use tables and further complemented with process inventory data on waste treatment technologies. A dramatic reduction in the demand for primary metals (by a factor of 2.0) and for primary mining and quarrying products for construction (by a factor of 1.9) is observed in 2020, as compared to 2008, in the case of the scenario “recycling,” despite the competition induced by the evolution of the final demand. On the contrary, considering energy requirements and fossil carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide emissions caused by the French final demand, the combined improvements in recycling and incineration performances by 2020 would only limit the rise induced by the evolution of the final demand. On the basis of these results, the potential contribution of waste management policies to the decoupling of resource consumption and gaseous emissions from final demand's growth is finally discussed.     

In Pursuit of Closed‐Loop Supply Chains for Critical Materials: An Exploratory Study in the Green Energy Sector

A closed‐loop supply chain (CLSC) is considered not only an important solution for ensuring sustainable exploitation of materials, but also a promising strategy for securing long‐term availability of materials. The latter is especially highlighted in the materials criticality discourse. Critical raw materials (CRMs), being exposed to supply disruptions, create an uncertain operational environment for many industries, particularly for green energy technologies that employ multiple CRMs. However, recycling rates of CRMs are very low and engagement of companies in CLSC for CRM is limited. This study examines factors influencing CLSC for CRM development in photovoltaic panels and wind turbine technologies. The aim is to analyze how the factors manifest themselves in different companies along the supply chain and to identify enabling and bottleneck conditions for implementation of CLSC for CRM. The novelty of the study is twofold: the focus on material rather than product flows, and examination of factors from a multiactor perspective. The evidence obtained suggests that the manufacturing companies and reverse supply‐chain operators engaged in the study take different perspectives (product vs. material) regarding development of CLSC for CRM and thus emphasize different factors. The findings underline the need for interactions between supply‐chain actors, a sound competitive environment for recycling processes, and investment in technologies and infrastructure development if CLSC for CRM is to be developed. The paper provides implications for practitioners and policy makers for implementation of CLSC for CRM, and suggests prospects for further research.     

Towards systematic and evidence‐based conservation planning for western chimpanzees

As animal populations continue to decline, frequently driven by large‐scale land‐use change, there is a critical need for improved environmental planning. While data‐driven spatial planning is widely applied in conservation, as of yet it is rarely used for primates. The western chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes verus) declined by 80% within 24 years and was uplisted to Critically Endangered by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species in 2016. To support conservation planning for western chimpanzees, we systematically identified geographic areas important for this taxon. We based our analysis on a previously published data set of modeled density distribution and on several scenarios that accounted for different spatial scales and conservation targets. Across all scenarios, typically less than one‐third of areas we identified as important are currently designated as high‐level protected areas (i.e., national park or IUCN category I or II). For example, in the scenario for protecting 50% of all chimpanzees remaining in West Africa (i.e., approximately 26,500 chimpanzees), an area of approximately 60,000 km² was selected (i.e., approximately 12% of the geographic range), only 24% of which is currently designated as protected areas. The derived maps can be used to inform the geographic prioritization of conservation interventions, including protected area expansion, “no‐go‐zones” for industry and infrastructure, and conservation sites outside the protected area network. Environmental guidelines by major institutions funding infrastructure and resource extraction projects explicitly require corporations to minimize the negative impact on great apes. Therefore, our results can inform avoidance and mitigation measures during the planning phases of such projects. This study was designed to inform future stakeholder consultation processes that could ultimately integrate the conservation of western chimpanzees with national land‐use priorities. Our approach may help in promoting similar work for other primate taxa to inform systematic conservation planning in times of growing threats.     

Device Performance of Emerging Photovoltaic Materials (Version 3)

Following the 2nd release of the “Emerging PV reports,” the best achievements in the performance of emerging photovoltaic devices in diverse emerging photovoltaic research subjects are summarized, as reported in peer-reviewed articles in academic journals since August 2021. Updated graphs, tables, and analyses are provided with several performance parameters, e.g., power conversion efficiency, open-circuit voltage, short-circuit current density, fill factor, light utilization efficiency, and stability test energy yield. These parameters are presented as a function of the photovoltaic bandgap energy and the average visible transmittance for each technology and application, and are put into perspective using, e.g., the detailed balance efficiency limit. The 3rd installment of the “Emerging PV reports” extends the scope toward triple junction solar cells.     

绿色基础设施的洪水调节服务供需测度研究进展

绿色基础设施(green infrastructure, GI)可提供高效且可获取的洪水调节服务,其供需测度是提升服务水平的基础与前提,可为城市土地利用与绿色基础设施规划提供决策依据。以GI洪水调节服务供需为研究对象,梳理GI洪水调节服务供需的概念内涵、主体构成和尺度关系。回顾了GI洪水调节服务供需测度方法,包括土地利用测度法、生态系统测度法和洪水调蓄模型法等供应水平测度方法,以及风险评估法、洪水淹没模型法和经济损失法等需求水平测度方法。基于生态系统服务的供需关系,构建了GI洪水调节服务供需分析框架,通过供需数量均衡和空间匹配将供需关系分为四种情景,对应服务动态平衡、调整服务供需水平和服务流动机制3种调控手段。从服务测度重点、动态变化分析、供需阈值效能、服务流动机制等四个方面提出了未来研究方向,以期对绿色基础设施规划研究和生态系统服务管理与决策研究有所启示。     

基于土地利用模拟预测模型分析的城市绿色空间发展多情景模拟及建设时序研究——以湛江市中心城区为例

城市绿色空间是未来中国城镇战略发展的重要生态空间载体。城市中心城区的绿色空间生态系统服务价值可作为未来城市生态空间规划的重要依据。生态服务系统之间的权衡或协同关系可通过不同土地利用方式和利用强度表征显现。通过对湛江市中心城区绿色空间应用土地利用模拟预测(PLUS)模型进行自然发展情景与国土空间规划情景双情景下2035年土地利用变化模拟,采用当量因子法及热点分析对生态系统服务价值及其高低值在空间上的聚集程度进行分析,与人类活动强度空间分布进行叠置,得出国土空间规划政策下湛江市中心城区城市绿色空间发展优先级分区,优先化解建设用地与绿色空间发展矛盾,为规划政策提供空间政策的量化数据基础,为其可行性实施、时序安排及预期结果提供数据支撑与建议。结果表明：(1)规划政策情景与自然发展情景未来土地利用模拟结果相比,耕地、林地增多,整体水域得到有效保护,建设用地蔓延受到抑制。(2)生态系统服务价值在2035年规划政策情景>2020年实际情景>2035年自然发展情景,分别约为12.22亿元、11.89亿元、10.53亿元,规划政策情境下生态系统服务价值总量较自然发展情景下提升约1.69亿元,...     

The Waste Footprint of French Households in 2020: A Comparison of Scenarios of Consumption Growth Using Input‐Output Analysis

This study aims at quantifying and analyzing the waste footprint of French household consumption in 2020 with respect to different scenarios of economic growth. Three models are jointly used: (1) a multiregional unilateral input‐output model extended to waste, to quantify waste generation from economic activities induced by household consumption; (2) a coefficient‐based model dedicated to quantifying postconsumer waste as a function of household consumption; and (3) the New Econometric Model of Evaluation by Sectorial Interdependency and Supply (NEMESIS), a macroeconometric model used to elaborate different scenarios of growth in household consumption in the period 2008–2020. Three scenarios consider changes primarily in terms of household consumption volume, while one scenario additionally considers changes in the composition of consumption according to the past‐30‐year trend. First, this study suggests that if the trend in changes of composition is maintained, it will lead, by 2020, to a “relative” decoupling between French household consumption and waste footprint with respect to dry recyclables, mixed wastes, and organic wastes and to an “absolute” decoupling with respect to mineral wastes. Second, this study provides a mapping of the changes in French household waste footprints from 2008 to 2020 as a function of scenarios, with indications of where these changes would actually occur in the economy (waste from economic activities or postconsumer waste) and geographically (in France or abroad). In particular, for most of the scenarios considered, changes in French household consumption from 2008 to 2020 primarily induce changes in organic and mineral waste generation abroad rather than in France.     

Biomass production in plantations: Land constraints increase dependency on irrigation water

Integrated assessment model scenarios project rising deployment of biomass‐using energy systems in climate change mitigation scenarios. But there is concern that bioenergy deployment will increase competition for land and water resources and obstruct objectives such as nature protection, the preservation of carbon‐rich ecosystems, and food security. To study the relative importance of water and land availability as biophysical constraints to bioenergy deployment at a global scale, we use a process‐detailed, spatially explicit biosphere model to simulate rain‐fed and irrigated biomass plantation supply along with the corresponding water consumption for different scenarios concerning availability of land and water resources. We find that global plantation supplies are mainly limited by land availability and only secondarily by freshwater availability. As a theoretical upper limit, if all suitable lands on Earth, besides land currently used in agriculture, were available for bioenergy plantations (“Food first” scenario), total plantation supply would be in the range 2,010–2,300 EJ/year depending on water availability and use. Excluding all currently protected areas reduces the supply by 60%. Excluding also areas where conversion to biomass plantations causes carbon emissions that might be considered unacceptably high will reduce the total plantation supply further. For example, excluding all areas where soil and vegetation carbon stocks exceed 150 tC/ha (“Carbon threshold savanna” scenario) reduces the supply to 170–290 EJ/year. With decreasing land availability, the amount of water available for irrigation becomes vitally important. In the least restrictive land availability scenario (“Food first”), up to 77% of global plantation biomass supply is obtained without additional irrigation. This share is reduced to 31% for the most restrictive “Carbon threshold savanna” scenario. The results highlight the critical—and geographically varying—importance of co‐managing land and water resources if substantial contributions of bioenergy are to be reached in mitigation portfolios.     

Side by Side Battery Technologies with Lithium‐Ion Based Batteries

In recent years, the electrochemical power sources community has launched massive research programs, conferences, and workshops on the “post Li battery era.” However, in this report it is shown that the quest for post Li‐ion and Li battery technologies is incorrect in its essence. This is the outcome of a three day discussion on the future technologies that could provide an answer to a question that many ask these days: Which are the technologies that can be regarded as alternative to Li‐ion batteries? The answer to this question is a rather surprising one: Li‐ion battery technology will be here for many years to come, and therefore the use of “post Li‐ion” battery technologies would be misleading. However, there are applications with needs for which Li‐ion batteries will not be able to provide complete technological solutions, as well as lower cost and sustainability. In these specific cases, other battery technologies will play a key role. Here, the term “side‐by‐side technologies” is coined alongside a discussion of its meaning. The progress report does not cover the topic of Li‐metal battery technologies, but covers the technologies of sodium‐ion, multivalent, metal–air, and flow batteries.     

An Ecosystem Model for Exploring Lake Restoration Effects on Fish Communities and Fisheries in Florida

Developing quantitative ecosystem–scale expectations of habitat restoration projects and examining trade‐offs associated with alternative approaches has been a challenge for restoration ecology. Many of the largest freshwater lake restoration projects have occurred in Florida to remediate degradation to vegetated littoral habitats resulting from stabilized water levels, but effects across lake food‐webs have not been assessed. We developed an ecosystem model using Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace for a generalized large, eutrophic Florida Lake to explore how simulated restoration activities could influence fish communities with emphasis on sport fish abundance. We modeled three habitat restoration scenarios: (1) “no control,” (2) a “10‐year control” that restored littoral habitat every 10 years, and (3) a “combined control” scenario that restored littoral habitat every 10 years with maintenance controls between 10‐year periods. Our “combined control” scenario provided the largest long‐term habitat restoration benefits for sport fish abundance and the fisheries they support. In Ecospace, we simulated a littoral habitat restoration project that reduced lake‐wide tussock coverage from 30 to 15%. Ecospace predicted positive benefits to sport fish and fisheries following the restoration simulation and highlighted the importance of habitat edge effects, spatial design of habitat restoration projects, and sampling designs for evaluating restoration projects.     

社区尺度绿色基础设施暴雨径流消减模拟研究

当前快速的城市化进程导致了城市地区内涝事件频繁发生。绿色基础设施是减轻城市洪涝的有效措施之一。SWMM(Storm Water Management Model)等模型的复杂性使得规划管理者对模型的操作和应用存在困难,而且缺乏对绿色基础设施径流消减机制的展现。目前的研究中,比较单个与综合绿色基础设施配置径流消减效果的研究相对较少。基于水量平衡和城市水文过程,开发了社区尺度绿色基础设施消减作用的暴雨径流模型,并以北京市一典型社区为例,模拟研究了一年一遇和五年一遇两种暴雨条件下不同绿色基础设施配置对暴雨径流流量和峰值的消减效率。结果表明:用两场野外监测的降雨和径流数据验证模型得到的决定系数分别为0.68和0.71,纳什效率系数分别达到0.99和0.96,表明模型是可靠的。在一年一遇和五年一遇两种暴雨条件下,将常规绿地改造成5 cm深度的下凹式绿地,径流量分别减少了8.23%和23.30%,径流峰值分别减少了20.31%和29.11%;在建造300 m3调蓄池的情景下,径流量分别减少了84.90%和20.97%,径流峰值分别减少了88.99%和0.10%;在50%的不透水地表铺装透水砖情景下,径流量分别减少了46.51%和38.52%,径流峰值分别减少了39.96%和35.48%。3种绿色基础设施都可以较好的消减社区暴雨径流,但是随着暴雨强度的增强,下凹式绿地的消减效果略增强,调蓄池的消减效果变差,透水砖铺装的消减效果较稳定。综合3种措施对暴雨径流具有显著消减效果,可以100%消减一年一遇暴雨产生的径流,在五年一遇设计暴雨条件下,分别消减75.47%的总径流量和64.52%的径流峰值。     

The Life Cycle Assessment of an Energy‐Positive Peri‐Urban Residence in a Tropical Regime

Urban settlements are home to the greatest levels of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption globally, with unprecedented rates of urban expansion occurring today. With the majority of global urbanization occurring along the periphery of urban areas in developing countries, investigation of “green” building practices designed specifically for “peri‐urban” regions is critical for a low‐emitting future society. This study assesses a state‐of‐the‐art residence designed for a middle‐class family of four residing in the peri‐urban region of Bangkok, Thailand. The residence employs both demand‐side management strategies and low‐emitting energy supply technology to achieve energy‐positive status. To elucidate the influence that key design decisions have on the life cycle sustainability of the home, several variants of the residence are modeled. A process‐based life cycle assessment consistent with the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 14044:2006 standard and following ReCiPe Midpoint life cycle impact assessment methodology is used to quantify the life cycle impacts per square meter of conditioned residence floor area for climate change (582 kilograms [kg] carbon dioxide equivalent), terrestrial acidification (4.01 kg sulfur dioxide equivalent), freshwater eutrophication (30.4 grams phosphorous equivalent), fossil depletion (362 kg iron equivalent), and metal depletion (186 kg oil equivalent) impacts. We model multiple scenarios in which varying proportions of Bangkok's peri‐urban detached housing demand are fulfilled by the energy‐positive residence variants. Under the best‐case replacement scenario (i.e., 100% replacement of future peri‐urban detached housing), significant reductions are achieved across the life cycle climate change (80%), terrestrial acidification (82%), and fossil depletion (81%) impact categories for the steel‐framed, energy‐positive residence.     

Consumer‐driven nutrient dynamics in urban environments: the stoichiometry of human diets and waste management

Studies in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have documented the potential importance of consumers on ecosystem‐level nutrient dynamics. This is especially true when aggregations of organisms create biogeochemical hotspots through nutrient consumption, assimilation, and remineralization via excretion and egestion. Here, we focused on aggregations of humans in cities to examine how diet and waste management interact to drive nitrogen‐ (N) and phosphorus‐ (P) fluxes into nutrient pollution, inert forms, and nutrient recycling. We constructed six diet patterns (five US‐based and one developing nation) to examine N‐ and P‐consumption and excretion, and explored their implications for human health. Next, we constructed six waste‐management patterns (three US and three for developing nations) to model how decisions at household and city scales determine the eventual fates of N and P. When compared to the US Recommended Daily Intake, all US diet patterns exceeded N and P requirements. Other than the “enriched CO₂ environment scenario” diet, the typical US omnivore had the greatest excess (37% N and 62% P). Notably, P from food additives could account for all of the excess P found in US omnivore and vegetarian diets. Across all waste‐management approaches, a greater proportion of P was stored or recycled (0 to > 100% more P than N) and a greater proportion of N was released as effluent (20 to > 100% more N than P) resulting in pollution enriched with N and a recycling stream enriched with P. In developing nations, 60% of N and 50% of P from excreta entered the environment as pollution because of a lack of sanitation infrastructure. Our study demonstrates a novel addition to modeling sustainable scenarios for urban N‐ and P‐budgets by linking human diets and waste management through socio‐ecological systems.     

Flood-adaptive green infrastructure planning for urban resilience

Urban flooding in South Korea continues to affect the lives of people. In this study, we propose flood-adaptive green infrastructure planning to enhance urban flood resilience. Specifically, a strategy for responding to flooding was established based upon the “4Rs” in the concept of resilience: robustness, rapidity, redundancy, and resourcefulness. The effects of reduced stormwater runoff were then simulated for Gangnam-gu, Seoul, via the application of green infrastructure. Finally, a design matrix was established based on the flood-adaptive design strategy and simulation results. By presenting a resilience- and green infrastructure-based planning strategy, this study may be useful for urban flood resilience measurement and adaptation as well as sustainable urban design and planning.

     

Adapting Stand‐Alone Renewable Energy Technologies for the Circular Economy through Eco‐Design and Recycling

Renewable energy (RE) technologies are looked upon favorably to provide for future energy demands and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the installation of these technologies requires large quantities of finite material resources. We apply life cycle assessment to 100 years of electricity generation from three stand‐alone RE technologies—solar photovoltaics, run‐of‐river hydro, and wind—to evaluate environmental burden profiles against baseline electricity generation from fossil fuels. We then devised scenarios to incorporate circular economy (CE) improvements targeting hotspots in systems’ life cycle, specifically (1) improved recycling rates for raw materials and (ii) the application of eco‐design. Hydro presented the lowest environmental burdens per kilowatt‐hour of electricity generation compared with other RE technologies, owing to its higher efficiency and longer life spans for main components. Distinct results were observed in the environmental performance of each system based on the consideration of improved recycling rates and eco‐design. CE measures produced similar modest savings in already low GHG emissions burdens for each technology, while eco‐design specifically had the potential to provide significant savings in abiotic resource depletion. Further research to explore the full potential of CE measures for RE technologies will curtail the resource intensity of RE technologies required to mitigate climate change.     

Experimentally comparing the attractiveness of domestic lights to insects: Do LEDs attract fewer insects than conventional light types?

LED lighting is predicted to constitute 70% of the outdoor and residential lighting markets by 2020. While the use of LEDs promotes energy and cost savings relative to traditional lighting technologies, little is known about the effects these broad‐spectrum “white” lights will have on wildlife, human health, animal welfare, and disease transmission. We conducted field experiments to compare the relative attractiveness of four commercially available “domestic” lights, one traditional (tungsten filament) and three modern (compact fluorescent, “cool‐white” LED and “warm‐white” LED), to aerial insects, particularly Diptera. We found that LEDs attracted significantly fewer insects than other light sources, but found no significant difference in attraction between the “cool‐” and “warm‐white” LEDs. Fewer flies were attracted to LEDs than alternate light sources, including fewer Culicoides midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Use of LEDs has the potential to mitigate disturbances to wildlife and occurrences of insect‐borne diseases relative to competing lighting technologies. However, we discuss the risks associated with broad‐spectrum lighting and net increases in lighting resulting from reduced costs of LED technology.     

Economic and Social Impact Assessment of China's Multi‐Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Modules Production

It is important to have insights into the potential sustainability impacts as early as possible in the development of technology. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies provide significant environmental, economic, and social benefits in comparison to the conventional energy sources. Because most previous studies of multi‐crystalline silicon (Multi‐Si) PV modules discuss the environmental impacts, this study quantitatively assesses the economic and social impacts of China's multi‐crystalline silicon (mc‐Si) PV modules production stages. The economic analysis is uses life cycle cost analysis, and the social impact analysis is carried out by applying the social index evaluation method. The economic analysis results demonstrate that the main cost of mc‐Si PV modules production in China lies in raw materials and labor and the production of Multi‐Si PV cells have the highest cost among the five manufacturing processes involved in Multi‐Si PV. The result of the social impact analysis reveal that the employment contribution index, S₁₁, is 0.72, indicating that Multi‐Si PV modules production in China has a prominent contribution to employment in comparison with other industries; the labor civilization degree, S₁₂ (i.e., the proportion of mental labor involved in a given job), and labor income contribution index, S₁₃, are both approximately 0.6, indicating that Multi‐Si PV modules production has a less‐significant labor level and income contribution in comparison with other industries; the production capacity contribution index, S₁₄, is merely 0.183, indicating that production of Multi‐Si PV modules does not contribute significantly to the gross domestic product (GDP). Based on the results of these evaluations, some recommendations to improve the economic and social impact of Multi‐Si PV modules production in China are presented, including support for research on polycrystalline silicon production for the purpose of reducing the raw material cost, as well as upgrading manufacturing facilities and implementing the corresponding production training in order to promote the labor civilization degree.     

Bayesian regularization for flexible baseline hazard functions in Cox survival models

Fully Bayesian methods for Cox models specify a model for the baseline hazard function. Parametric approaches generally provide monotone estimations. Semi‐parametric choices allow for more flexible patterns but they can suffer from overfitting and instability. Regularization methods through prior distributions with correlated structures usually give reasonable answers to these types of situations. We discuss Bayesian regularization for Cox survival models defined via flexible baseline hazards specified by a mixture of piecewise constant functions and by a cubic B‐spline function. For those “semi‐parametric” proposals, different prior scenarios ranging from prior independence to particular correlated structures are discussed in a real study with microvirulence data and in an extensive simulation scenario that includes different data sample and time axis partition sizes in order to capture risk variations. The posterior distribution of the parameters was approximated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Model selection was performed in accordance with the deviance information criteria and the log pseudo‐marginal likelihood. The results obtained reveal that, in general, Cox models present great robustness in covariate effects and survival estimates independent of the baseline hazard specification. In relation to the “semi‐parametric” baseline hazard specification, the B‐splines hazard function is less dependent on the regularization process than the piecewise specification because it demands a smaller time axis partition to estimate a similar behavior of the risk.