Winter distribution of small mammals in relation to snow cover in the subalpine zone, Australia

We present the results of a study that is the first to investigate the landscape-scale distribution of small mammals in direct relation to the spatial and temporal variation of snow cover. We investigated the distribution of the dusky antechinus Antechinus swainsonii and bush rat Rattus fuscipes in the subalpine zone of Kosciuszko National Park in the Snowy Mountains of south-eastern Australia. A new hair tube technique was used to detect the presence of small mammals active in the subnivean space. In 2002, we sampled 72 sites stratified by elevation (1501–1600, 1601–1700, 1701–1800 m), aspect (accumulating, ablating) and habitat type (woodland, wet heath, dry heath, grassland). These factors were considered important in influencing snow accumulation and generally reflected the types of habitats available to small mammals. In 2003, the presence of small mammals was investigated at 30 high-elevation sites including six boulderfields. The development of the subnivean space in the Snowy Mountains is dependent on the presence of structures such as shrubs, boulders and microtopographic features that are capable of supporting a snow layer above ground level. When snow was present, small mammal detections were negatively correlated with snow depth and duration, and positively correlated with the complexity of structures and microtopography. At high elevations detections were largely confined to boulderfields, and at mid and low elevations small mammals were detected primarily in habitats where the subnivean space was most extensive. Antechinus swainsonii and R. fuscipes responded differently to snow cover, with the latter seeming better able to overwinter where snow cover was shallow and patchy, in contrast to A. swainsonii whose occurrence was correlated to the size of the subnivean space.     

Alpine and subalpine snow patch vegetation on the Bogong High Plains,SE Australia

Abstract. Snow patch vegetation in Australia is rare, being restricted to the relatively small area of alpine and subalpine country in the highlands of southeastern Australia. Snow patch vegetation occurs on steeper, sheltered southeastern slopes, where snow persists until well into the growing season (December/January). We surveyed the vegetation of 33 snow patch sites in the alpine and subalpine tracts of the Bogong High Plains, within the Alpine National Park, in Victoria. The vegetation was dominated by herbs and graminoids, with few shrubs and mosses. Major structural assemblages identified included closed herb‐fields dominated by Celmisia spp, and grasslands dominated by Poa fawcettiae or Poa costiniana. These assemblages occurred on mineral soils. Open herb‐fields dominated by Caltha introloba and several sedge species occurred on rocky and stony substrata. Vegetation‐environment relationships were explored by ordination and vector fitting. There was significant variation in the floristic composition of snow patch vegetation as a function of duration of snow cover, altitude, slope and site rockiness. Alpine sites were floristically distinct from subalpine sites, with a greater cover of Celmisia spp. and a lesser cover of low shrubs in the former. There was floristic variation within some snow patches as a function of slope position (upper, middle or lower slope) but this was not consistent across sites. The current condition of snow patch vegetation on the Bogong High Plains is degraded, with bare ground exceeding 20% cover at most sites. Snow patch vegetation is utilized preferentially by domestic cattle, which graze parts of the Bogong High Plains in summer. Such grazing is a potential threat to this rare vegetation type.     

基于植被和环境因子的亚高山森林土壤水源涵养功能空间尺度上推模型构建——以岷江上游杂谷脑流域为例

土壤层水源涵养功能是森林水源涵养功能的主体。目前关于森林土壤水源涵养功能的研究主要集中在林地或坡面尺度上。由于流域尺度,尤其是环境空间异质性强的西南亚高山区流域,如何将林地尺度实测结果上推至流域或更大空间尺度仍是生态水文领域面临的巨大挑战之一。以川西岷江上游杂谷脑流域为研究对象,融合多种森林类型样地实测与流域尺度多源遥感数据,构建了基于植被和环境因子的林地-流域森林土壤水源涵养功能尺度转换模型,实现了流域尺度土壤水源涵养功能快速评价及其空间分布预测。样地尺度研究结果表明各类型森林的土壤水文特性各异,总体表现为天然林优于人工林,混交林优于单纯林。林地土壤持水能力受到区域气候、植被、土壤及地形等因子的共同影响,其中风速、NDVI及林龄与土壤最大持水量、毛管持水量及非毛管持水量均呈极显著正相关（P<0.01）。基于关键植被和环境因子构建的林地-流域土壤水源涵养功能尺度上推模型精度较高,土壤最大持水量、土壤毛管持水量和土壤非毛管持水量模型拟合优度R²分别为0.700、0.720和0.908;土壤最大持水量、土壤毛管持水量和土壤非毛管持水量的模型预测值与野外实测值的相关系数介于0.69-0.79之间,平均误差均低于20%,表明模型预测结果可靠。利用构建的土壤水源涵养功能尺度上推模型,估算得出流域尺度森林土壤持水量的空间分布,其结果表明杂谷脑流域森林土壤持水量空间分异明显,海拔较高区域森林土壤持水量最高,其次为距道路和河流有一定距离的缓坡地带,下游干旱河谷地区土壤持水量最低。本研究为亚高山森林生态功能的恢复和提升提供了科学依据和评价工具。     

Herbivory and pollen limitation at the upper elevational range limit of two forest understory plants of eastern North America

Studies of species' range limits focus most often on abiotic factors, although the strength of biotic interactions might also vary along environmental gradients and have strong demographic effects. For example, pollinator abundance might decrease at range limits due to harsh environmental conditions, and reduced plant density can reduce attractiveness to pollinators and increase or decrease herbivory. We tested for variation in the strength of pollen limitation and herbivory by ungulates along a gradient leading to the upper elevational range limits of Trillium erectum (Melanthiaceae) and Erythronium americanum (Liliaceae) in Mont Mégantic National Park, Québec, Canada. In T. erectum, pollen limitation was higher at the range limit, but seed set decreased only slightly with elevation and only in one of two years. In contrast, herbivory of T. erectum increased from <10% at low elevations to >60% at the upper elevational range limit. In E. americanum, we found no evidence of pollen limitation despite a significant decrease in seed set with elevation, and herbivory was low across the entire gradient. Overall, our results demonstrate the potential for relatively strong negative interactions (herbivory) and weak positive interactions (pollination) at plant range edges, although this was clearly species specific. To the extent that these interactions have important demographic consequences—highly likely for herbivory on Trillium, based on previous studies—such interactions might play a role in determining plant species' range limits along putatively climatic gradients.     

BIODIVERSITY RESEARCH: Soil moisture limits foraging: a possible mechanism for the range dynamics of the hadeda ibis in southern Africa

Aim Climate limits the ranges of many animals, but the mechanism whereby it does so remains poorly understood. One explanation is that climate (e.g. temperature or rainfall) affects energy expenditure, eventually limiting where a species can occur. We propose that climate can also affect energy uptake through its effect on foraging efficiency. We examined this idea for the case of the hadeda ibis (Bostrychia hagedash) which has considerably expanded its range in southern Africa over the past 80 years. Hadedas forage mainly by extracting earthworms and other invertebrates from soft soil. Soil moisture, in the absence of irrigation largely determined by climate and soil composition, may therefore be a factor limiting feeding efficiency in hadedas. Location We tested this hypothesis by observing foraging hadedas in Cape Town, South Africa. Results We found that soil moisture limited the rate at which hadedas caught prey items, with an optimum on relatively moist ground. We further measured the energy content of the hadedas’ main prey, earthworms. Using published physiological relationships, we estimated that hadedas need to forage for about 6.3 h to meet their daily energy requirements under optimal soil moisture conditions. On dry soils, they need to forage for >12 h, thus showing that soil moisture has the potential to limit the range of this species. Main conclusions Hadedas originally only occurred in the wettest parts of South Africa, but gradually colonized drier areas, and are now absent only from the driest parts of the country. Our results support the view that climate (determining soil moisture) originally limited the hadedas range and that irrigation has been an important factor facilitating their range expansion. The hadeda is an example for a species whose range expansion is driven by interactions between climate and land‐use change.     

基于土地利用及植被覆盖变化的黄河源区生境质量时空变化特征

位于青藏高原腹地的黄河源地区生态环境脆弱,面临生物多样性锐减、生态系统退化等问题,黄河源区生态系统保护及其高质量发展已成为国家的重点战略之一。土地利用与植被覆盖是影响生境质量的重要因素,定量化土地利用方式、强度及格局和植被覆盖格局对生态质量影响的研究越来越受到关注,但其对黄河源区生态质量的耦合效应尚不明确。基于2000年和2015年黄河源区土地利用类型及生长季归一化植被指数（NDVI）,采用InVEST模型探究了不同时期黄河源区生境质量时空变化,并采用地理加权回归（GWR）模型揭示了生境质量对土地利用和植被覆盖变化的空间响应特征。结果表明,2000年与2015年土地利用类型变化主要为未利用土地向草地的转移。植被覆盖变化方面,源区生长季NDVI整体上升。从生境质量的空间分布来看,黄河源区生境质量总体呈现南高北低的空间格局,高值分布在南部及中部地区,低值分布在北部布青山、东北部高海拔区及黄河乡的黄河沿岸。相较于2000年,2015年黄河源区生境质量平均提高11.47%。草地面积和NDVI与生境质量均呈显著正相关关系,其中NDVI是提高黄河源区生境质量的重要驱动因子。研究结果突出了NDVI对提高黄河源区生境质量的主导作用,可为未来源区生态保护提供借鉴。     

Phenology predicts the native and invasive range limits of common ragweed

Accurate models for species' distributions are needed to forecast the progress and impacts of alien invasive species and assess potential range‐shifting driven by global change. Although this has traditionally been achieved through data‐driven correlative modelling, robustly extrapolating these models into novel climatic conditions is challenging. Recently, a small number of process‐based or mechanistic distribution models have been developed to complement the correlative approaches. However, tests of these models are lacking, and there are very few process‐based models for invasive species. We develop a method for estimating the range of a globally invasive species, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), from a temperature‐ and photoperiod‐driven phenology model. The model predicts the region in which ragweed can reach reproductive maturity before frost kills the adult plants in autumn. This aligns well with the poleward and high‐elevation range limits in its native North America and in invaded Europe, clearly showing that phenological constraints determine the cold range margins of the species. Importantly, this is a ‘forward’ prediction made entirely independently of the distribution data. Therefore, it allows a confident and biologically informed forecasting of further invasion and range shifting driven by climate change. For ragweed, such forecasts are extremely important as the species is a serious crop weed and its airborne pollen is a major cause of allergy and asthma in humans. Our results show that phenology can be a key determinant of species' range margins, so integrating phenology into species distribution models offers great potential for the mechanistic modelling of range dynamics.     

The effects of fragmentation and disturbance of rainforest on ground-dwelling small mammals on the Robertson Plateau, New South Wales, Australia

We surveyed ground-dwelling small mammals in twenty-four rainforest remnants which were virtual islands surrounded by farmland on a plateau on the east coast of Australia. We investigated the effect of island size, level of disturbance, isolation and microhabitat on the abundance and species richness of the mammals. The remnants ranged from 0.3 to 29 ha, resulting from fragmentation during 175 years of European occupation. Two rodent species (Rattus fuscipes[Waterhouse, 1839] and R. rattus[Linnaeus, 1758] ) and one marsupial insectivore (Antechinus stuartii Macleay, 1841) were trapped in these remnants, with an additional species (A. swainsonii[Waterhouse, 1840] ) several kilometres away in rainforest on the escarpment of the plateau. Small-mammal species richness was low, but the native species (R. fuscipes and A. stuartii) were abundant. Three-way analyses of variance demonstrated that species richness and abundance decreased significantly with decreasing remnant size and increasing disturbance, but showed no distance effect. The abundance and richness of native species responded even more significantly. The interaction between the first two effects is important. Small remnants are affected most detrimentally by increasing disturbance, large remnants are less affected, and medium sized remnants show intermediate effects. The introduced R. rattus which was least abundant in large remnants, but more abundant in distant than near remnants, was also more abundant in those with major disturbance. The single most important variable in step-wise, multiple linear regression analyses was the logarithm of remnant area not influenced by edge effects, explaining 39% of the variance in species richness, 57% for native species richness and 46% for A. stuartii abundance. Disturbance related variables additionally contributed from 12 to 30% of the variance in dependent variables, while habitat variables explained between 22 and 48% of the variance, and accounted for two thirds of the explainable variance in R. fuscipes abundance. The implications of our results for wildlife conservation on the plateau are discussed.     

气候变化情景下基于最大熵模型的中国西南地区清香木潜在分布格局模拟

清香木(Pistacia weinmannifolia)是中国西南干旱河谷植被的特征种。本文利用野外调查的165个清香木分布点信息以及22个环境变量数据, 基于最大熵(Maxent)算法构建清香木分布的适宜生境预测模型, 并据此模拟清香木在我国西南地区的适宜分布区, 以及历史和未来不同气候情景下的分布格局变化。结果表明: 清香木生境预测的Maxent模型准确性非常高(AUC = 0.974), 温度季节性变化、极端低温和降水量是限制其分布的主要气候因子。清香木当前的潜在分布区集中在我国西南干旱河谷区, 其适宜生境的气候特征是降水少、温度季节性变化小且无极端低温。对清香木在末次间冰期和末次冰盛期分布的模拟结果表明, 其分布区范围均以诸大江河的河谷为中心, 随气候变化在我国西南地区主要呈现先向东扩张, 然后向西退缩的趋势, 并印证了“冰期走出横断山(glacial out-of-Hengduan Mts.)”的观点。在未来(2061-2080年) 3种典型浓度路径(representative concentration pathway, RCP)的气候情景下, 清香木在我国西南地区的分布都向东扩张, 主要分布在云贵高原与四川盆地结合地带的河谷, 以及云贵高原与广西西部交界地带的河谷中, 这也反映了这些地区河谷地段干旱化的可能, 而当前的潜在分布区趋于消失; 清香木的潜在适宜分布面积在中低浓度路径情景下均将减少约33%, 而在高浓度路径情景下有所增加。     

Vascular plant diversity and climate change in the alpine zone of the Snowy Mountains,Australia

This study examines vascular plant species richness along an altitudinal gradient in alpine Australia. Vascular plant composition and soil temperature records were obtained for five summits (from 1729 m to 2114 m a.s.l.) using sampling protocols from the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments program. Species richness was examined against altitude, aspect and climatic variables at different spatial scales (10 × 10 cm quadrats, 1 m² quadrats, clusters of 4 * 1 m² quadrats, for the summit area above a line 5 m altitudinally below the summit (the −5 m isoline), for the extended summit down to the −10 m isoline). About 75 taxa (70 species, 5 graminoid genera) were recorded, 9 of which are endemic to the small alpine area of ∼100 km². There were significant linear relationships between species richness and altitude and climatic variables for the top to −5 isolines on the summits. However, there was no consistent pattern for species richness at other spatial scales, altitude, aspect or climatic variables. The proportion of species for the whole summits with localised distributions (local endemics) increased with altitude. Predicted increasing temperatures and reduced snowcover is likely to result in an increase in species richness as shrubs, herbs and introduced weeds become more common at higher altitude. Because Australian alpine areas occur in narrow altitudinal bands with no nival zone, there are no higher altitudinal refuges available for alpine species. Therefore many of these species are likely to be at risk of extinction from climate change.     

Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East

Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty‐first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four‐level ordinal response variable were used to develop species‐specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty‐two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species‐specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.     

The influences of climatic variation and vegetation on stream biota: lessons from the Big Dry in southeastern Australia

Aquatic biodiversity faces increasing threats from climate change, escalating exploitation of water and land use intensification. Loss of vegetation in catchments (= watersheds) has been identified as a substantial problem for many river basins, and there is an urgent need to better understand how climate change may interact with changes in catchment vegetation to influence the ecological condition of freshwater ecosystems. We used 20 years of biological monitoring data from Victoria, southeastern Australia, to explore the influences of catchment vegetation and climate on stream macroinvertebrate assemblages. Southeastern Australia experienced a severe drought from 1997 to 2009, with reductions of stream flows >50% in some areas. The prolonged drying substantially altered macroinvertebrate assemblages, with reduced prevalence of many flow‐dependent taxa and increased prevalence of taxa that are tolerant of low‐flow conditions and poor water quality. Stream condition, as assessed by several commonly used macroinvertebrate indices, was consistently better in reaches with extensive native tree cover in upstream catchments. Prolonged drought apparently caused similar absolute declines in macroinvertebrate condition indices regardless of vegetation cover, but streams with intact catchment and riparian vegetation started in better condition and remained so throughout the drought. The largest positive effects of catchment tree cover on both water quality and macroinvertebrate assemblages occurred above a threshold of ca. 60% areal tree cover in upstream catchments and in higher rainfall areas. Riparian tree cover also had positive effects on macroinvertebrate assemblages, especially in warmer catchments. Our results suggest that the benefits of extensive tree cover via improved water quality and in‐channel habitat persist during drought and show the potential for vegetation management to reduce negative impacts of climatic extremes for aquatic ecosystems.     

Expanding northward: influence of climate change,forest connectivity,and population processes on a threatened species' range shift

Species' ranges are dynamic, shifting in response to a large number of interrelated ecological and anthropogenic processes. Climate change is thought to be one of the most influential drivers of range shifts, but the effects of other confounded ecological processes are often ignored even though these processes may modify expected range responses to climate change. To determine the relative effects of climate, forest availability, connectivity, and biotic processes such as immigration and establishment, we examine range changes occurring in a species of bird, the Hooded Warbler (Wilsonia citrina). We focus predominantly on the periphery of the species' northern range in Canada but we also examine data from the entire species' range. Nesting records in southern Ontario were obtained from two breeding bird Atlases of Ontario separated by a period of 20 years (1981–1985 and 2001–2005), and the rate of range expansion was estimated by comparing the number of occupied areas in each Atlas. Twelve hypotheses of the relationship between the rate of range expansion and factors known to influence range change were examined using model‐selection techniques and a mixed modeling approach (zero‐inflated Poisson's regression). Cooler temperatures were positively related to a lack of range expansion indicating that climate constrained the species' distribution. Establishment probability (based on the number of occupied, neighboring Atlas squares) and immigration from populations to the south (estimated using independent data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey) were also important predictors of range expansion. These biotic process variables can mask the effects of forest availability and connectivity on range expansion. Expansion due to climate change may be slower in fragmented systems, but the rate of expansion will be influenced largely by biotic processes such as proximity to neighboring populations.     

Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae

Aim

To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change.

Location

South African Cape Floristic Region.

Methods

We use data‐driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species‐specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long‐distance dispersal on top of expected spatio‐temporal dynamics of suitable habitat.

Results

Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography.

Main conclusions

Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data‐driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography.

     

Climate change increases risk of fusarium ear blight on wheat in central China

To estimate potential impact of climate change on wheat fusarium ear blight (FEB), simulated weather for the A1B climate change scenario was input into a model for estimating FEB in central China. In this article, a logistic weather‐based regression model for estimating incidence of wheat FEB in central China was developed, using up to 10 years (2001–2010) of disease, anthesis date and weather data available for 10 locations in Anhui and Hubei provinces. In the model, the weather variables were defined with respect to the anthesis date for each location in each year. The model suggested that incidence of FEB is related to number of days of rainfall in a 30‐day period after anthesis and that high temperatures before anthesis increase the incidence of disease. Validation was done to test whether this relationship was satisfied for another five locations in Anhui province with FEB data for 4–5 years but no nearby weather data, using simulated weather data obtained employing the regional climate modelling system PRECIS. How climate change may affect wheat anthesis date and FEB in central China was investigated for period 2020–2050 using wheat growth model Sirius and climate data simulated using PRECIS. The projection suggested that wheat anthesis dates will generally be earlier and FEB incidence will increase substantially for most locations.     

Limited effect of hare grazing and short-term climatic variations on the most common alpine vegetation community in the Snowy Mountains,Australia

Background: In the alpine zone of the Snowy Mountains, grazing by mammals is limited. However, introduced European hare numbers have increased since the 1970s.

Aims: To estimate the density of hares and hence grazing pressure among years. To assess the response of biomass, vegetation height and composition to a cessation of hare grazing.

Methods: We used indices of hare abundance based on spotlighting and counts of hare pellets on a transect. The effect of hare grazing on tall alpine herbfield was assessed by using 15 paired exclosure and control quadrats for six years.

Results: The indices of hare abundance suggested densities similar to those in upland areas of Britain. Grazing did not affect the composition, cover of herbs or graminoids or, for 2010, vegetation height or biomass. Variation in vegetation and hare numbers among years was not correlated with climatic variables. Observations of selective grazing suggested that impacts on vegetation may be localised and restricted to certain species. Prior analyses of hare pellets indicated that hares might spread seed of native and exotic species.

Conclusions: Hares are having no general effect on tall alpine herbfield but may affect certain plant species via selective grazing or by spread of viable seed.     

Climate and vegetation in China V. Effect of climatic factors on the upper limit of distribution of evergreen broadleaf forest

In order to clarify correlations between the upper limit of distribution of evergreen broadleaf forest and climatic factors, 62 stands distributed at the upper limit of the forest were collected from various parts of China, and their thermal and precipitation factors were estimated. Among six thermal climatic indices, i.e., warmth index (WI), coldness index (CI) and annual mean (AMT), January mean (JMT), mean minimum (MMT) and minimum (MT) temperatures, the CI at the stands showed the smallest range of variance, and it was therefore considered to be the most significant for interpreting the upward distribution of the forest. However, the distribution of the forest in mountain areas in southwestern China could not be explained by lower temperatures in winter such as CI but by a cumulative temperature such as WI. The continentality and precipitation factors were also important for delimiting the distribution of the forest. In addition, the relation between the distribution of the forest and the MMT was noted, and it was concluded that the MMT was an effective thermal index for explaining the upper limit of distribution of evergreen broadleaf forest in China.