USE OF DISCOVERY CURVES TO ASSESS ABUNDANCE OF HAWAIIAN MONK SEALS

We investigated the pattern of first sighting of individual seals over the course of a field season, or the "discovery curve," as a means for estimating abundance of the endangered Hawaiian monk seal, Monachus schauinslandi . We empirically derived a criterion to determine whether or not total enumeration had been accomplished at a given site and year. When greater than 100-h field effort was expended without a new individual being identified, we concluded that total enumeration was likely achieved. To evaluate the potential for estimating abundance through extrapolation of nonlinear asymptotic functions fitted to discovery curves, we conducted simulations under a range of capture probability scenarios, including some based on observed individual variability in monk seal sighting frequencies. We demonstrated that if capture heterogeneity existed among individuals, the fitted asymptotes tended to yield biased estimates of abundance. Moreover, the levels of bias and uncertainty tended to increase inversely with the proportion of the population identified. While extrapolation shows little promise for generating unbiased abundance estimates, discovery curves have practical appeal for determining whether total enumeration has been achieved, and for optimizing field effort allocation. This is especially true for relatively small, closed populations of marked individuals.     

Recommendations for photo‐identification methods used in capture‐recapture models with cetaceans

Capture‐recapture methods are frequently employed to estimate abundance of cetaceans using photographic techniques and a variety of statistical models. However, there are many unresolved issues regarding the selection and manipulation of images that can potentially impose bias on resulting estimates. To examine the potential impact of these issues we circulated a test data set of dorsal fin images from bottlenose dolphins to several independent research groups. Photo‐identification methods were generally similar, but the selection, scoring, and matching of images varied greatly amongst groups. Based on these results we make the following recommendations. Researchers should: (1) determine the degree of marking, or level of distinctiveness, and use images of sufficient quality to recognize animals of that level of distinctiveness; (2) ensure that markings are sufficiently distinct to eliminate the potential for “twins” to occur; (3) stratify data sets by distinctiveness and generate a series of abundance estimates to investigate the influence of including animals of varying degrees of markings; and (4) strive to examine and incorporate variability among analysts into capture‐recapture estimation. In this paper we summarize these potential sources of bias and provide recommendations for best practices for using natural markings in a capture‐recapture framework.     

A Bayesian estimate of harbour seal survival using sparse photo-identification data

Survival rates have rarely been estimated for pinniped populations due to the constraints of obtaining unbiased sample data. In this paper, we present an approach for estimating survival probabilities from individual recognition data in the form of photographic documentation of pelage patterns. This method was applied to estimate adult (age 2+) survival for harbour seals in the Moray Firth, NE Scotland. An astronomical telescope was used to obtain digital images of individual seals, and high-quality images were used to document the annual presence or absence of individuals at a single haul-out site over a 4-year period. A total of 95 females, 10 males and 57 individuals of unknown sex were photographically documented during the study period. Survival and recapture probabilities were estimated using Jolly–Seber mark–recapture models in a Bayesian statistical framework. Computer-intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the probability distributions for the survival and recapture probabilities, conveying the full extent of the uncertainty resulting from unavoidably sparse observational data. The deviance information criterion was used to identify a best-fitting model that accounted for variation in the probability of capture between sexes, with constant survival. The model estimated adult survival as 0.98 (95% probability interval of 0.94–1.00) using our photo-identification data alone, and 0.97 (0.92–0.99) with the use of an informative prior distribution based on previously published estimates of harbour seal survival. This paper represents the first survival estimate for harbour seals in the UK, and the first survival estimate using photo-identification data in any species of pinniped.     

The use and abuse of photographic identification in sharks and rays

The use of photography to discriminate between individuals in a population using natural markings or aberrations is increasingly being utilized to support field research on elasmobranchs. This non-intrusive method has facilitated investigation of a wide variety of subjects including population composition, abundance estimates, residency and movement, demography and social behaviours. Here the first detailed review of photo-identification as a research technique for sharks and rays is provided, and its assumptions, current applications and potential highlighted. The limitations and practical considerations of photographic studies are also investigated with recommendations on initial survey design and ongoing data collection using current technology. Future directions are also explored with an emphasis on a move towards standardized approaches and automated recognition programmes to facilitate global collaborative work.     

A Novel Tool to Mitigate By-Catch Mortality of Baltic Seals in Coastal Fyke Net Fishery

Developing methods to reduce the incidental catch of non-target species is important, as by-catch mortality poses threats especially to large aquatic predators. We examined the effectiveness of a novel device, a “seal sock”, in mitigating the by-catch mortality of seals in coastal fyke net fisheries in the Baltic Sea. The seal sock developed and tested in this study was a cylindrical net attached to the fyke net, allowing the seals access to the surface to breathe while trapped inside fishing gear. The number of dead and live seals caught in fyke nets without a seal sock (years 2008–2010) and with a sock (years 2011–2013) was recorded. The seals caught in fyke nets were mainly juveniles. Of ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica) both sexes were equally represented, while of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) the ratio was biased (71%) towards males. All the by-caught seals were dead in the fyke nets without a seal sock, whereas 70% of ringed seals and 11% of grey seals survived when the seal sock was used. The seal sock proved to be effective in reducing the by-catch mortality of ringed seals, but did not perform as well with grey seals.     

SHIPBOARD LINE TRANSECT SURVEYS OF CRABEATER SEAL ABUNDANCE IN THE PACK-ICE OFF EAST ANTARCTICA: EVALUATION OF ASSUMPTIONS

We examine the extent to which the assumptions underlying line transect sampling are satisfied in shipboard surveys of crabeater seals ( Lobodon carcinophaga ) hauled out on the Antarctic pack-ice. Measurement of the perpendicular distance of seal groups from the ship with an electronic inclinometer fitted to a rifle stock was unbiased. Crabeater seals showed little movement in response to the approaching ship. Movement away from the ship by seals close to the ship's track was partially responsible for a relative lack of sightings close to the transect-line, but otherwise had little effect on the sighting histogram. Minor deviations from the transect direction to avoid running over seals violated the assumption of uniform distribution of groups, and contributed to a relative lack in sightings close to (<40 m) the transect-line. We estimate that 5%-10% of seal groups close to the transect-line were not sighted by bridge observers prior to passing abeam of the ship, but most of these missed groups were likely to have been sighted some distance behind-abeam. Shipboard transects provided a biased sample of four environmental features known to be related to crabeater seal abundance because of logistical difficulties in the ship traversing along straight transects through thick ice. Calculation of transect length L from successive GPS locations was mildly sensitive to the frequency of locations. We provide analytical recommendations to reduce or eliminate the effect of assumption violation when present and hence minimize bias in abundance estimation.     

Mark-resight estimates of seasonal variation in harbor seal abundance and site fidelity

Monitoring trends in abundance of pinnipeds typically involves counting seals at terrestrial haul-out sites during the breeding season. Counts of seals made at other times of the year are typically lower; however, it is often unknown whether this is because fewer animals are present or whether lower counts simply reflect a reduction in haul-out probability. Here we illustrate how photo-identification data from an individual-based study of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) can be used to estimate seasonal variation in abundance and site fidelity. Monthly data collected over a two-year period were analyzed using a mark-recapture mark-resight model accounting for individuals transitioning between observable and unobservable states. Levels of site fidelity were high throughout the year and abundance estimates showed no seasonal pattern. This suggests that individual seals used haul-out sites to the same extent throughout the year, and that peaks in counts during the breeding season are a result of seasonal changes in haul-out probability. The results of this study have implications for understanding population sub-structuring, gene flow and disease spread.     

Temporal variation in distribution and density of ice-obligated seals in western Hudson Bay, Canada

Recent unidirectional climatic trends and changes in top predator population ecology suggest that long-term modifications may be happening in Hudson Bay, Canada. Effects of such changes on ice-obligated seal populations are expected but long-term studies are required to differentiate climate-induced changes from natural variation. We conducted strip-transect surveys in late spring in 1995–1997, 1999–2000 and 2007–2008 to estimate distribution, density and abundance of ice-obligated ringed (Phoca hispida) and bearded (Erignathus barbatus) seals in western Hudson Bay. When hauled out, ringed seals preferred land-fast and consolidated pack ice, whereas bearded seals preferred unconsolidated pack ice. Bearded and ringed seal density estimates varied from 0.0036 to 0.0229 seals/km² of ice and from 0.46 to 1.60 seals/km² of ice, respectively. Strong inter-annual variations were recorded in the abundance estimates of both species, with the largest abundance estimates in 1995 (104,162 and 1,494 ringed and bearded seals, respectively) and the lowest in 2008 for ringed seals (33,701) and 1997 for bearded seals (278). A sine function best described seal density estimates in western Hudson Bay and suggested a decadal cycle. Previous studies that reported low ringed seal demographic parameters in the 1990s and a recovery in the 2000s supported our interpretation of the survey results. We discuss our results in the context of climate warming and suggest that a long-term decline in ice-obligated seal density estimates may overlay a possible natural decadal cycle.     

Population abundance, structure and turnover estimates for leopard seals during winter dispersal combining tagging and photo-identification data

Winter dispersal in leopard seals is poorly understood because of its low density in most of its range. By combining photo-identification and tagging data from Bird Island, South Georgia, in mark-recapture models, leopard seal abundance over the winter of 2005 was estimated as 118 (95% CI: 78–179). Seasonal residents arrived earlier and stayed longer around the island (27 days; 95% CI: 23–32) and their numbers were low and stable over the winter Most of the seals (81; 95% CI: 31–130) were young transients, stayed only 1–7 days, and arrived later in the season. This suggests (1) very low predatory pressure upon the locally abundant prey populations; (2) two different patterns of winter movements: a winter migration in adult seals with long-term site fidelity, and large numbers of juveniles in dispersal possibly attracted by locally abundant prey colonies, and potentially influenced by increased environmental stress.     

ABUNDANCE OF RINGED SEALS (PUSA HISPIDA) IN THE FJORDS OF SPITSBERGEN, SVALBARD, DURING THE PEAK MOLTING PERIOD

Ringed seal (Pusa hispida) abundance in Spitsbergen, Svalbard, was estimated during the peak molting period via aerial, digital photographic surveys. A total of 9,145 images, covering 41.7%–100% of the total fast‐ice cover (1,496 km²) of 18 different fjords and bays, were inspected for the presence of ringed seals. A total of 1,708 seals were counted, and when accounting for ice areas that were not covered by images, a total of 3,254 (95% CI: 3,071–3,449) ringed seals were estimated to be hauled out during the surveys. Extensive behavioral data from radio‐tagged ringed seals (collected in a companion study) from one of the highest density fjords during the molting period were used to create a model that predicts the proportion of seals hauled out on any given date, time of day, and under various meteorological conditions. Applying this model to the count data from each fjord, we estimated that a total of 7,585 (95% CI: 6,332–9,085) ringed seals were present in the surveyed area during the peak molting period. Data on interannual variability in ringed seal abundance suggested higher numbers of seals in Van Keulenfjorden in 2002 compared to 2003, while other fjords with very stable ice cover showed no statistical differences. Poor ice conditions in general in 2002 probably resulted in seals from a wide area coming to Van Keulenfjorden (a large fjord with stable ice in 2002). The total estimated number of ringed seals present in the study area at the time of the survey must be regarded as a population index, or at least a minimum estimate for the area, because it does not account for individuals leaving and arriving, which might account for a considerable number of animals. The same situation is likely the case for many other studies reporting aerial census data for ringed seals. To achieve accurate estimates of population sizes from aerial surveys, more extensive knowledge of ringed seal behavior will be required.     

CORRECTING AERIAL SURVEY COUNTS OF HARBOR SEALS (PHOCA VITULINA RICHARDSI) IN WASHINGTON AND OREGON

Aerial surveys of harbor seals on land produce only a minimum assessment of the population; a correction factor to account for the missing animals is necessary to estimate total abundance. In 1991 and 1992, VHF radio tags were deployed on harbor seals ( n = 124) at six sites in Washington and Oregon. During aerial surveys a correction factor to account for seals in the water was determined from the proportion of radio-tagged seals on shore during the pupping season. This proportion ranged from 0.54 to 0.74. Among the six sites there was no significant difference in the proportion of animals on shore nor was there a difference in age/sex categories of seals on shore between sites. The pooled correction factor for determining total population abundance was 1.53. An additional 32 seals were radio tagged in 1993 at one of the sites used in 1991. Comparing data from the two years, we found no interannual variation. Aerial surveys of all known harbor seal haul-out sites in Washington ( n = 319) and Oregon ( n = 68) were flown during the peak of the pupping season, 1991–1993. The Washington and Oregon harbor seal population was divided into two stocks based on pupping phenology, morphometics, and genetics. Mean counts for the Washington inland stock were 8,710 in 1991, 9,018 in 1992, and 10,092 in 1993. Oregon and Washington coastal stock mean counts were 18,363 in 1991, 18,556 in 1992, and 17,762 in 1993. Multiplying the annual count by the correction factor yielded estimates of harbor seal abundance in the Washington inland stock of 13,326 (95% CI = 11,637–15,259) for 1991, 13,798 (95% CI = 11,980–15,890) for 1992, and 15,440 (95% CI = 13,382–17,814) for 1993. In the Oregon and Washington coastal stock the corrected estimate of harbor seal abundance was 28,094 (95% CI = 24,697–31,960) in 1991, 28,391 (95% CI = 24,847–32,440) for 1992, and 27,175 (95% CI = 23,879–30,926) for 1993.     

MOLTING PHENOLOGY OF HARBOR SEALS ON TUGIDAK ISLAND, ALASKA

We documented the progression and timing of the annual molt of harbor seals on Tugidak Island, Alaska, from 1997 to 1999. In all years the timing of molting differed among age-sex classes. Yearlings molted first, subadults second, adult females third, and lastly adult males. Timing of molting was nearly identical in 1997–1998, whereas in 1999 molting occurred three to six days later for all age-sex classes except yearlings. Estimated dates when peak proportions of each age-sex class were molting ranged from 2 August (yearlings) to 2 September (adult males). The number of seals hauled out was positively related to the proportion of seals in the molt and negatively related to the proportion of seals in the postmolt. Population trend estimates, based on aerial counts conducted during a narrow window within the molting period, are likely biased toward certain age-sex classes. Statistical models used to estimate trend include covariates to help account for within-year variation in seal numbers, but do not account for compositional changes that occur during molting. Population modeling may elucidate the effects of within-year population structure on trend estimates. Monitoring molting phenology at additional sites is necessary to determine the extent of geographic variation in molting.     

CHANGES IN MORPHOLOGY WITH AGE IN MEDITERRANEAN MONK SEALS (MONACHUS MONACHUS)

In order to describe the pelage and external appearance of the Mediterranean monk seal ( Monachus monachus ) and prepare an age-sex classification guide, 120 seals from the Cabo Blanco Peninsula colony in the Western Sahara/Mauritania were periodically photographed between 1993 and 1996. Analysis of the pigmentation pattern, pelage color and pattern of natural markings of each seal established 48 phenetic types, which were, in turn, arranged in five groups (morphological classes) with multivariate cluster analysis (UPGMA). The variables that best define these groups are size and color. The variation related to relative size, sex and age of 26 identified seals monitored over three years showed that: (1) after each molt, external appearance varied considerably only in non-adults, while adult appearance was invariable; (2) marked sexual dimorphism exists in adults' external appearance; and (3) a remarkable similarity of adult and neonate pelage exists. With these results, we propose an age-sex classification guide to facilitate monk seal identification in the field.     

Spatio-temporal variations and age effect on Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence in seals from the Canadian Arctic

Toxoplasmosis is a significant public health threat for Inuit in the Canadian Arctic. This study aimed to investigate arctic seals as a possible food-borne source of infection. Blood samples collected from 828 seals in 7 Canadian Arctic communities from 1999 to 2006 were tested for Toxoplasma gondii antibodies using a direct agglutination test. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to detect T. gondii DNA in tissues of a subsample of seals. Associations between seal age, sex, species, diet, community and year of capture, and serological test results were investigated by logistic regression. Overall seroprevalence was 10·4% (86/828). All tissues tested were negative by PCR. In ringed seals, seroprevalence was significantly higher in juveniles than in adults (odds ratio=2·44). Overall, seroprevalence varied amongst communities (P=0·0119) and by capture year (P=0·0001). Our study supports the hypothesis that consumption of raw seal meat is a significant source of infection for Inuit. This work raises many questions about the mechanism of transfer of this terrestrial parasite to the marine environment, the preponderance of infection in younger animals and the natural course of infection in seals. Further studies to address these questions are essential to fully understand the health risks for Inuit communities.     

Estimation of In-Water Density and Abundance of Harbor Seals

Ecologists and managers require accurate population estimates of marine mammals to assess potential anthropogenic threats to these animals. We present estimates of in-water density and abundance of a distinct stock of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) in Hood Canal, Washington, USA. We used aerial line-transect survey data collected from 2013 to 2016 to directly estimate harbor seal density and abundance in the waters of Hood Canal, a deep-water fjord in the Salish Sea. We estimated a correction factor for trackline detection probability from dive and surface time data gathered from regional seal tagging studies, and applied this factor to correct for seals missed on the trackline during surveys. We applied conventional and multiple covariate line-transect approaches in the analysis. The resulting best estimate of in-water density of harbor seals in the Hood Canal study region was 5.80 seals/km², with an estimated abundance of 2,009 seals. We did not derive a correction factor to account for the number of seals on land (i.e., hauled out). Therefore, these estimates do not reflect total stock size but provide a starting point to evaluate potential influences of anthropogenic activities, particularly those involving underwater noise, on this marine mammal stock. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

MULTISITE MARK-RECAPTURE FOR CETACEANS: POPULATION ESTIMATES WITH BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING

Mark-recapture techniques are widely used to estimate the size of wildlife populations. However, in cetacean photo-identification studies, it is often impractical to sample across the entire range of the population. Consequently, negatively biased population estimates can result when large portions of a population are unavailable for photographic capture. To overcome this problem, we propose that individuals be sampled from a number of discrete sites located throughout the population's range. The recapture of individuals between sites can then be presented in a simple contingency table, where the cells refer to discrete categories formed by combinations of the study sites. We present a Bayesian framework for fitting a suite of log-linear models to these data, with each model representing a different hypothesis about dependence between sites. Modeling dependence facilitates the analysis of opportunistic photo-identification data from study sites located due to convenience rather than by design. Because inference about population size is sensitive to model choice, we use Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches to estimate posterior model probabilities, and base inference on a model-averaged estimate of population size. We demonstrate this method in the analysis of photographic mark-recapture data for bottlenose dolphins from three coastal sites around NE Scotland.     

Key fish species, northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus, and fisheries interactions involving walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, in the eastern Bering Sea

The recent decline of the northern fur seal population breeding on the Pribilof Islands has not yet been explained. This study estimates the amounts and sizes of walleye pollock (the fur seal's main prey) removed by predatory fish, fur seals and commercial fisheries in the main fur seal feeding area in the eastern Bering Sea during summer 1985. Fur seals relied primarily on age-1 pollock during 1985, while predatory fish consumed pollock mainly of ages 0-1. The fishery took pollock older than age-3. This indicated no direct effect of fishery removal on fur seal prey abundance, at least during the study period. In the short term, the 1985 pollock fishery may have indirectly affected fur seal prey abundance in a positive manner by removing adult pollock that compete with fur seals for age-1 pollock.     

Methodology matters when estimating deer abundance: a global systematic review and recommendations for improvements

Deer (Cervidae) are key components of many ecosystems and estimating deer abundance or density is important to understanding these roles. Many field methods have been used to estimate deer abundance and density, but the factors determining where, when, and why a method was used, and its usefulness, have not been investigated. We systematically reviewed journal articles published during 2004–2018 to evaluate spatio-temporal trends in study objectives, methodologies, and deer abundance and density estimates, and determine how they varied with biophysical and anthropogenic attributes. We also reviewed the precision and bias of deer abundance estimation methods. We found 3,870 deer abundance and density estimates. Most estimates (58%) were for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), red deer (Cervus elaphus), and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). The 6 key methods used to estimate abundance and density were pedestrian sign (track or fecal) counts, pedestrian direct counts, vehicular direct counts, aerial direct counts, motion-sensitive cameras, and harvest data. There were regional differences in the use of these methods, but a general pattern was a temporal shift from using harvest data, pedestrian direct counts, and aerial direct counts to using pedestrian sign counts and motion-sensitive cameras. Only 32% of estimates were accompanied by a measure of precision. The most precise estimates were from vehicular spotlight counts and from capture–recapture analysis of images from motion-sensitive cameras. For aerial direct counts, capture–recapture methods provided the most precise estimates. Bias was robustly assessed in only 16 studies. Most abundance estimates were negatively biased, but capture–recapture methods were the least biased. The usefulness of deer abundance and density estimates would be substantially improved by 1) reporting key methodological details, 2) robustly assessing bias, 3) reporting the precision of estimates, 4) using methods that increase and estimate detection probability, and 5) staying up to date on new methods. The automation of image analysis using machine learning should increase the accuracy and precision of abundance estimates from direct aerial counts (visible and thermal infrared, including from unmanned aerial vehicles [drones]) and motion-sensitive cameras, and substantially reduce the time and cost burdens of manual image analysis.     

Balancing bias and precision in capture-recapture estimates of abundance

Capture‐recapture estimates of abundance using photographic identification data are sensitive to the quality of photographs used and distinctiveness of individuals in the population. Here analyses are presented for examining the effects of photographic quality and individual animal distinctiveness scores and for objectively selecting a subset of data to use for capture‐recapture analyses using humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) data from a 2‐year study in the North Atlantic. Photographs were evaluated for their level of quality and whales for their level of individual distinctiveness. Photographic quality scores had a 0.21 probability of changing by a single‐quality level, and there were no changes by two or more levels. Individual distinctiveness scores were not independent of photographic quality scores. Estimates of abundance decreased as poor‐quality photographs were removed. An appropriate balance between precision and bias in abundance estimates was achieved by removing the lowest‐quality photographs and those of incompletely photographed flukes given our assumptions about the true population abundance. A simulation of the selection process implied that, if the estimates are negatively biased by heterogeneity, the increase in bias produced by decreasing the sample size is not more than 2%. Capture frequencies were independent of individual distinctiveness scores.     

THE USE OF NATURAL MARKINGS IN STUDIES OF LONG-FINNED PILOT WHALES (GLOBICEPHALA MELAS)

Photo-identification using natural markings has been used for pilot whale ( Globicephala melas ) studies. However, none of these studies investigated the reliability of the marks used. To identify which mark types are reliable and which could improve the method, fifteen mark types, and their distribution within the population, were described. The rates of gain and loss of each mark type were calculated and the variability in visibility was investigated. Although the mark types associated with the current photo-identification method, the notch and the protruding piece, appear to be permanent, they allowed us to identify only 33% of our sample. The prevalence of all but two mark types is independent of the identifiability of a photograph. One of these is already used in the current photo-identification method. This independence indicates that the proportion of the population that is currently identifiable does not differ from the rest of the population in its susceptibility to factors causing marks, such as predation, and thus appears to be representative of the whole population. Using saddle patches in combination with the current photo-identification method would double the percentage of the identifiable individuals. However, due to limitations of matching software, the current method is easier to use.