光温耦合的中国温带地区旱柳花期时空格局模拟

建立基于温度和光周期驱动的旱柳花期物候模型,旨在寻找影响旱柳花期时空变化的主要气象因子,揭示调控植物开花时间的生态机制,还可为改善柳絮造成的环境污染和花粉过敏等人类健康问题提供参考信息和依据。利用中国气象局农业气象观测网提供的中国温带地区1982-2011年49个站点的旱柳开花始期、盛期和末期观测资料及平行的逐日气象数据,分别对6种模型（简单积温模型、温度三基点模型、八时段温度模型、简单积温-日长模型、温度三基点-日长模型和八时段温度-日长模型）进行了参数率定和假设检验,根据外部检验结果,从中选出针对旱柳3个花期的最优物候模型,进而利用连续地理气象数据和最优物候模型重建了1982-2011年旱柳开花始期、盛期、末期和花期长度的时空变化特征。结果表明：光温耦合的物候模型对旱柳花期的模拟效果和外推效果优于仅基于温度的模型。旱柳开花始期和盛期最优模型均为八时段温度-日长模型,末期为温度三基点-日长模型,说明光周期和温度可能是影响旱柳花期开始、繁盛和结束时间的主要气象因子。同时,优选出的物候模型能够较准确地对不同年份和不同地区的旱柳花期进行模拟及预测。重建的1982-2011年旱柳平均开花始期、盛期和末期日期分别为4月24日、4月28日和5月3日,平均花期长度为9 d,始期、盛期和末期出现日期呈现出从海拔低到高、从南向北、从西向东逐渐推迟的空间格局。1982-2011年旱柳开花始期、盛期和末期在大部分地区呈提前趋势,呈显著提前趋势的面积分别占总面积的49.78%、50.01%和53.40%,花期长度变化差异不显著。     

Phenological diversity in tropical forests

One of the most intriguing and complex characteristics of reproductive phenology in tropical forests is high diversity within and among forests. To understand such diversity, Newstrom et al. provided a systematic framework for the classification of tropical flowering phenology. They adopted frequency and regularity as criteria with priority, and classified plants in La Selva, Costa Rica, where most plants reproduced more than once a year irregularly. Many other studies have demonstrated annual cycles corresponding to rainfall patterns at the community level in Neotropical forests, including La Selva. On the other hand, supraannual flowering synchronized among various plant species, called general flowering, is known from aseasonal lowland dipterocarp forests in Southeast Asia. Within both forests, a wide spectrum of flowering patterns is found. This range of patterns suggests the great potential of tropical phenological studies to explore the selective pressures on phenology. Various abiotic and biotic factors can be selective agents. The shared pollinators hypothesis suggests that plant species sharing pollinators segregate flowering temporarily to minimize interspecific overlap in flowering times and thus minimize ineffective pollination or competition for pollinators, indicating strong phylogenetic constraints in timing and variation of flowering. Comparison of phenology within and among forests may help our understanding of phenological diversity. Attempts are now being made to develop a common language to communicate concepts and render interpretations of data more compatible among investigators and to create a network to promote comparative studies. Received: September 8, 2000 / Accepted: January 30, 2001     

中国南亚热带和北温带地区禾本科C3与C4草本植物花果期差异研究

为揭示不同地区禾本科C₃与C₄植物花果期受气候因子的影响,以广东省和内蒙古自治区分别代表南亚热带和北温带地区,从植物志中分别获得两地395和265种禾本科草本植物的3个花果期特征(始花期、末花果期和生殖期长),比较开花物候的差异,并通过一般线性模型探究其与气候因子(年均温与年均降水量)的相关性。结果表明,南亚热带与北温带地区C₃植物的始花期均比C₄植物早。两地C₄共有种在南亚热带地区具有更早的始花期、更晚的末花果期和更长的生殖期,而C₃共有种的末花果期在两地无显著差异,但在南亚热带地区始花期更早,生殖期更长。随年均温升高,北温带地区禾本科植物的始花期提前,而南亚热带地区则延后;随年均降水量升高,两地禾本科植物始花期与末花果期均延迟;禾本科植物生殖期长与年均温和年均降水量均不存在相关性。跨地区分析表明,末花果期、生殖期长与年均温和年均降水量均正相关,而与始花期不相关。禾本科C₃植物比C₄植物对地区间气候差异响应更敏...     

Annual cycles are the most common reproductive strategy in African tropical tree communities

We present the first cross‐continental comparison of the flowering and fruiting phenology of tropical forests across Africa. Flowering events of 5446 trees from 196 species across 12 sites and fruiting events of 4595 trees from 191 species across 11 sites were monitored over periods of 6 to 29 years and analyzed to describe phenology at the continental level. To study phenology, we used Fourier analysis to identify the dominant cycles of flowering and fruiting for each individual tree and we identified the time of year African trees bloom and bear fruit and their relationship to local seasonality. Reproductive strategies were diverse, and no single regular cycle was found in >50% of individuals across all 12 sites. Additionally, we found annual flowering and fruiting cycles to be the most common. Sub‐annual cycles were the next most common for flowering, whereas supra‐annual patterns were the next most common for fruiting. We also identify variation in different subsets of species, with species exhibiting mainly annual cycles most common in West and West Central African tropical forests, while more species at sites in East Central and East African forests showed cycles ranging from sub‐annual to supra‐annual. Despite many trees showing strong seasonality, at most sites some flowering and fruiting occurred all year round. Environmental factors with annual cycles are likely to be important drivers of seasonal periodicity in trees across Africa, but proximate triggers are unlikely to be constant across the continent.     

Elevational trends in butterfly phenology: implications for species responses to climate change

1. Impacts of global change on the distribution, abundance, and phenology of species have been widely documented. In particular, recent climate change has led to widespread changes in animal and plant seasonality, leading to debate about its potential to cause phenological mismatches among interacting taxa. 2. In mountainous regions, populations of many species show pronounced phenological gradients over short geographic distances, presenting the opportunity to test for effects of climate on phenology, independent of variation in confounding factors such as photoperiod. 3. Here we show for 32 butterfly species sampled for five years over a 1700 m gradient (560–2260 m) in a Mediterranean mountain range that, on average, annual flight period is delayed with elevation by 15–22 days per kilometre. Species mainly occurring at low elevations in the region, and to some extent those flying earlier in the year, showed phenological delays of 23–36 days per kilometre, whereas the flight periods of species that occupy high elevations, or fly in late summer, were consistently more synchronised over the elevation gradient. 4. Elevational patterns in phenology appear to reflect a narrowing phenological window of opportunity for larval and adult butterfly activity of high elevation and late‐flying species. 5. Here, we speculate as to the causes of these patterns, and the consequences for our ability to predict species responses to climate change. Our results raise questions about the use of space–time substitutions in predicting phenological responses to climate change, since traits relating to flight period and environmental associations may influence the capacity of species to adapt to changing climates.     

The roles of shifting and filtering in generating community‐level flowering phenology

Plant phenologies are key components of community assembly and ecosystem function, yet we know little about how phenological patterns differ among ecosystems. Community‐level phenological patterns may be driven by the filtering of species into communities based on their phenology or by intraspecific responses to local conditions that shift when species flower. To understand the relative roles of filtering and shifting on community‐level phenological patterns we compared patterns of first flowering dates (FFD) for herbaceous species at Konza Prairie, KS, USA with those from the colder Fargo, ND, USA area and from Chinnor, England, which has a less continental climate. Comparing patterns of FFD supports that Konza's flowering patterns are potentially influenced both by filtering species that flower early in the growing season and by phenological shifting. Konza species flowering dates were earlier in the spring and later in the fall compared to Fargo, but were not shifted compared to Chinnor, which had a unique suite of early‐flowering species. In all, comparing flowering phenology among three sites reveals that intraspecific responses to climate can generate phenological shifts that compress or stretch community‐level phenological patterns, while novel niches in phenological space can also alter community‐level patterns. Community flowering patterns related to climate suggest that climatic warming has the potential to further distribute flowering of the Konza flora over a longer period, but also could further open it to introductions of non‐native species that have evolved to flower early in the season.     

Flowering phenology of co-occurring Asteraceae: a matter of climate,ecological interactions,plant attributes or of evolutionary relationships among species?

We analyzed the flowering phenodynamics of 43 Asteraceae species co-occurring in natural populations of Chaco Serrano forests in central Argentina. We explored the potential influence of factors such as photoperiod and climate (variations in temperature, rainfall, and frost), animal-plant interactions (richness of floral visitors, frequency of visits), some plant attributes (plant growth form, seed dispersal mechanism), and evolutionary relationships among species on flowering phenodynamics. Cluster Analysis (CA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were the multivariate statistical methods used to analyze emerging patterns associated with these co-occurring species. Null-model analyses were used to evaluate whether flowering times are aggregated, segregated, or random. Results showed that flowering phenology was significantly correlated with the seasonal variation in temperature, photoperiod, rainfall, and frost. The multivariate statistical methods separated all the species in three groups: 1) species with short flowering time, large plant floral display, high frequency of visits by a large number of species of floral visitors, anemochorous fruits, and shrubby growth form, with a tendency to a segregated flowering pattern; 2) species with long flowering time, small plant floral display, low frequency of visits by few insect species, anemochorous fruits, and herbaceous growth form; and 3) species with long flowering time, small plant floral display, intermediate values for frequency of visits and number of species of floral visitors, seed dispersal mechanisms other than anemochory, and herbaceous growth form. In addition, all but one species belonging to early-branching tribes (tribes phylogenetically close to the root of the Asteraceae tree) were grouped together and clustered in the same region of the two-dimensional PCA ordination. All species belonging to the late-branching tribes (Asteroideae subfamily tribes) included in group 1 were separated from the other Asteroideae species in the PCA. In conclusion, it seems that climatic factors restrict the phenological period of most species, and that plant attributes and taxonomic membership are strongly related to flowering phenodynamics in this group of Asteraceae studied.     

Reproductive phenology, life-forms, and habitats of the Venezuelan Central Plain

Reproductive phenology of 171 plant species belonging to 57 families of angiosperms was studied according to life-forms in four habitat types in a savanna-forest mosaic on the Venezuelan Central Plain. Flowering, unripe fruit, and mature fruit patterns were affected significantly according to life-forms and habitats respectively. Production of flowers, unripe fruits, and mature fruits showed marked seasonality for all habitats except for the forest. Flowering peaked during the rainy season, and fruiting peaked toward the end of the rainy season. The savanna and the disturbed area had similar proportions of species that flowered over the year. The percentage of species with unripe fruits produced throughout the year was more seasonal for the disturbed area than for the other habitats. Mature fruit patterns showed an increase during the late rainy season for the ecotone and savanna. A large number of herbaceous (annual and perennial) and liana species flowered during the wet season, and a smaller fraction flowered during the dry season; and trees, shrubs, and epiphytes increased flowering activity during the dry season. Unripe fruit patterns were similar to those of flowering for all life-forms, however, tree species were less seasonal. Mature fruit production by shrubs peaked in the period of maximum rainfall, while the peak for perennial herbs was in the late rainy season and the peak for annual herbs was during the transition between the rainy season and the dry season. The largest proportion of tree and liana species with ripe fruits occurred during the dry season. Differences among phenological patterns in habitats were caused mainly by life-forms and promote a wider distribution of reproductive events in habitats and overall community in the Venezuelan Central Plain.     

Resource-related variables drive individual variation in flowering phenology and mediate population-level flowering responses to climate in an asynchronously reproducing palm

Many tropical plant species show wide intra-population variation in reproductive timing, resulting in the protracted presence of flowering and fruiting individuals. Various eco-evolutionary drivers have been proposed as ultimate causes for asynchronous phenology, yet little is known about the proximate factors that control reproductive onset among individuals or that influence the proportion of trees producing new inflorescences within a population. We employed a nine-year phenological record from 178 individuals of the hyperdominant, asynchronously flowering canopy palm, Oenocarpus bataua (Arecaceae)¸ to assess whether resource-related variables influence individual- and population-level flowering phenology. Among individuals, access to sunlight increased rates of inflorescence production, while the presence of resource sinks related to current investment in reproduction—developing infructescences—reduced the probability of producing new inflorescences. At the population level, climate anomalies induced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affected the proportion of the population producing inflorescences through time. Moreover, the effects of ENSO anomalies on flowering patterns depended on the prevalence of developing infructescences in the population, with stronger effects in periods of low developing-infructescence frequency. Taken together, these results suggest that resource-related variables can drive phenological differences among individuals and mediate population-level responses to larger-scale variables, such as climate anomalies. Consequently, a greater focus on the role of resource levels as endogenous cues for reproduction might help explain the frequent aseasonal phenological patterns observed among tropical plants, particularly those showing high intra-population asynchrony.     

Nonlinear flowering responses to climate: are species approaching their limits of phenological change?

Many alpine and subalpine plant species exhibit phenological advancements in association with earlier snowmelt. While the phenology of some plant species does not advance beyond a threshold snowmelt date, the prevalence of such threshold phenological responses within plant communities is largely unknown. We therefore examined the shape of flowering phenology responses (linear versus nonlinear) to climate using two long-term datasets from plant communities in snow-dominated environments: Gothic, CO, USA (1974–2011) and Zackenberg, Greenland (1996–2011). For a total of 64 species, we determined whether a linear or nonlinear regression model best explained interannual variation in flowering phenology in response to increasing temperatures and advancing snowmelt dates. The most common nonlinear trend was for species to flower earlier as snowmelt advanced, with either no change or a slower rate of change when snowmelt was early (average 20% of cases). By contrast, some species advanced their flowering at a faster rate over the warmest temperatures relative to cooler temperatures (average 5% of cases). Thus, some species seem to be approaching their limits of phenological change in response to snowmelt but not temperature. Such phenological thresholds could either be a result of minimum springtime photoperiod cues for flowering or a slower rate of adaptive change in flowering time relative to changing climatic conditions.     

Flowering phenologies of hummingbird plants from the temperate forest of southern South America: is there evidence of competitive displacement?

Plant species sharing pollinators may compete through pollination. This type of competition may lead to overdispersed flowering phenologies. However, phenological segregation is difficult to detect in seasonal climates. We compared patterns of phenological overlap in assemblages of ornithophilous plants from three localities of the temperate forest of southern South America with those generated by four different null models. These species were all visited and presumably pollinated by a single species, the hummingbird Sephanoides sephaniodes, which makes this situation ideal to evaluate the role of pollination‐mediated competition. For one site, we compiled data on flowering phenologies for three different years. Three models considered the flowering period of the whole assemblage of ornithophilous plants as the phenological window within which flowering phenologies were randomized, but made no further assumptions on how species should be distributed within that temporal frame. The fourth model assigned differential probabilities to different time intervals based on the flowering onset of non‐ornithophilous plant species. Observed mean pairwise overlaps for all localities and years were well within the interval defined by the 2.5 and 97.5% percentiles of the randomized distribution of expected mean pairwise overlaps according to models 1–3. However, model 4 showed a consistent trend towards overdispersion of ornihophilous phenologies, which show a shift towards mid‐ to late‐summer flowering. Thus, to the extent that the distribution of flowering of non‐ornithophilous species reflects the constraints imposed by a highly seasonal climate, our results provide support to the proposal that pollinator sharing may cause evolutionary displacement or ecological sorting of flowering phenologies. Other factors, such as phylogenetic inertia, could also contribute to explain extant phenological patterns in the highly endemic ornithophilous flora of the temperate forest of southern South America.     

Reproductive phenology of a northeast Brazilian mangrove community: Environmental and biotic constraints

Brazil has the third largest area of mangrove in the world, which is widely threatened by anthropogenic pressures. We carried out the first long-term phenological study investigating whether environment and competition for pollinators shape the reproduction of a western mangrove community in Brazil, and provide new information for mangrove conservation. We monitored monthly the flowering and fruiting of Avicennia schaueriana, Conocarpus erectus, Laguncularia racemosa and Rhizophora mangle, the only species composing this mangrove community. We applied circular statistics to detect seasonal trends, null models to test for aggregated, staggered or random flowering patterns, performed correlations between phenophases and climate, and calculated intra-specific phenological synchrony. Each species presented a different flowering pattern, from brief annual to continuous and from regular to irregular, resulting in a bimodal pattern at community level. Fruiting was annual or continuous and seasonally unimodal at community level. Precipitation showed the strongest correlation with reproduction for all species, except L. racemosa. Flowering was randomly distributed among species sharing pollinators and each species presented high intra-specific synchrony. The studied mangrove showed a diversity of flowering patterns despite the low number of species. Annual to sub-annual sequential flowering were prevalent, sustaining the pollinators of species all the year long, while the wind-pollinated species flowered continuously. We provide strong evidence that daylength, rainfall and temperature are driving the flowering and fruiting rhythm of these mangrove species.     

Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades

Recent changes in climate have led to significant shifts in phenology, with many studies demonstrating advanced phenology in response to warming temperatures. The rate of temperature change is especially high in the Arctic, but this is also where we have relatively little data on phenological changes and the processes driving these changes. In order to understand how Arctic plant species are likely to respond to future changes in climate, we monitored flowering phenology in response to both experimental and ambient warming for four widespread species in two habitat types over 21 years. We additionally used long‐term environmental records to disentangle the effects of temperature increase and changes in snowmelt date on phenological patterns. While flowering occurred earlier in response to experimental warming, plants in unmanipulated plots showed no change or a delay in flowering over the 21‐year period, despite more than 1 °C of ambient warming during that time. This counterintuitive result was likely due to significantly delayed snowmelt over the study period (0.05–0.2 days/yr) due to increased winter snowfall. The timing of snowmelt was a strong driver of flowering phenology for all species – especially for early‐flowering species – while spring temperature was significantly related to flowering time only for later‐flowering species. Despite significantly delayed flowering phenology, the timing of seed maturation showed no significant change over time, suggesting that warmer temperatures may promote more rapid seed development. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the specific environmental cues that drive species’ phenological responses as well as the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation when forecasting phenology over the coming decades. As demonstrated here, the effects of altered snowmelt patterns can counter the effects of warmer temperatures, even to the point of generating phenological responses opposite to those predicted by warming alone.     

Predictors of plant phenology in a diverse high‐latitude alpine landscape: growth forms and topography

Question: Different plant growth forms may have distinctly different functioning in ecosystems. Association of phenological patterns with growth form will therefore help elucidate the role of phenology in an ecosystem. We ask whether growth forms of common vascular plants differ in terms of vegetative and flowering phenology, and if such phenological differences are consistent across environmental gradients caused by landscape‐scale topography. Location: A high‐latitude alpine landscape in Finnmark County, Norway (70°N). Methods: We assessed vegetative and flowering phenology repeatedly in five growth forms represented by 11 common vascular plant species across an altitudinal gradient and among differing slope aspects. Results: Species phenology clustered well according to growth form, and growth form strongly explained variation in both flowering and vegetative phenology. Altitude and aspect were poor predictors of phenological variation. Vegetative phenology of the growth forms, ranked from slowest to fastest, was in the order evergreen shrubs <sedges‐deciduous shrubs <grasses <forbs, while a reverse ranking was found for flowering phenology. Conclusion: Growth form‐specific phenological patterns are associated with fundamentally different abilities for resource acquisition and resource conservation. The weak effect of landscape‐scale topographic factors indicates that variation within growth forms is mainly influenced by local environmental factors not accounted for in this study. On the basis of these results, we argue that growth forms should be considered as predictors of phenology together with the customary use of topography and normalized difference vegetation index, especially when assessing the role of phenology in an ecosystem.     

西双版纳地区鞘花的繁殖物候特征及影响因素

桑寄生植物作为关键种和关键性食物资源在生态系统中扮演着重要角色,其鞘花的繁殖物候特征不仅会影响自身的繁殖适合度而且还会影响依赖于其获取食物资源的动物。为了解鞘花的繁殖物候特征及其影响因素,探究其与寄主植物和种子散布者之间的相互作用关系。该研究以西双版纳地区分布的鞘花为对象,通过定期观测鞘花和其寄主植物木荷的繁殖物候,测量它们的生物学特性和温湿度等环境因子,并分析鞘花在个体水平和种群水平上的繁殖物候特征以及寄主植物和温湿度对其繁殖物候的影响。结果表明:(1)鞘花的开花物候属于集中大量开花模式,整个种群的花期和果期的持续时间分别约为20 d和72 d,花期和果期的同步性指数都较高,6月中旬鞘花果实被取食的数量和速率最大,之后逐渐降低。(2)鞘花的始花期与木荷的始花期相关性较高,花期和果期与木荷的繁殖物候基本重叠。(3)每月开花和果熟的个体数量与同期和前一个月的平均温度和相对湿度的相关关系均不显著。总之,桑寄生植物的繁殖物候特征可能受到较多因素的影响,若想全面了解半寄生植物的繁殖物候特征,就要综合考虑生物和非生物等多种因子的共同作用。     

Solar radiation and ENSO predict fruiting phenology patterns in a 15‐year record from Kibale National Park,Uganda

Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long‐term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15‐year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify abiotic predictors of fruit phenological patterns and discuss our findings in light of climate change. We quantified fruiting for 326 trees from 43 species and evaluated these patterns in relation to solar radiance, rainfall, and monthly temperature. We used time‐lagged variables based on seasonality in linear regression models to assess the effect of abiotic variables on the proportion of fruiting trees. Annual fruiting varied over 3.8‐fold, and inter‐annual variation in fruiting is associated with the extent of fruiting in the peak period, not variation in time of fruit set. While temperature and rainfall showed positive effects on fruiting, solar radiance in the two‐year period encompassing a given year and the previous year was the strongest predictor of fruiting. As solar irradiance was the strongest predictor of fruiting, the projected increase in rainfall associated with climate change, and coincident increase in cloud cover suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in fruiting. ENSO in the prior 24‐month period was also significantly associated with annual ripe fruit production, and ENSO is also affected by climate change. Predicting changes in phenology demands understanding inter‐annual variation in fruit dynamics in light of potential abiotic drivers, patterns that will only emerge with long‐term data.     

Detecting nonlinear response of spring phenology to climate change by Bayesian analysis

The impact of climate change on the advancement of plant phenological events has been heavily studied in the last decade. Although the majority of spring plant phenological events have been trending earlier, this is not universally true. Recent work has suggested that species that are not advancing in their spring phenological behavior are responding more to lack of winter chill than increased spring heat. One way to test this hypothesis is by evaluating the behavior of a species known to have a moderate to high chilling requirement and examining how it is responding to increased warming. This study used a 60‐year data set for timing of leaf‐out and male flowering of walnut (Juglans regia) cultivar ‘Payne’ to examine this issue. The spring phenological behavior of ‘Payne’ walnut differed depending on bud type. The vegetative buds, which have a higher chilling requirement, trended toward earlier leaf‐out until about 1994, when they shifted to later leaf‐out. The date of male bud pollen shedding advanced over the course of the whole record. Our findings suggest that many species which have exhibited earlier bud break are responding to warmer spring temperatures, but may shift into responding more to winter temperatures (lack of adequate chilling) as warming continues.     

Climate changes affecting biotic interactions,phenology, and reproductive success in a savanna community over a 10-year period

Climatic parameters are able to influence the timing of phenological events affecting the degree of synchrony among plant species, their interactions, and reproductive success. Shrubs of Malpighiaceae family in the Brazilian Tropical Savanna present sequential flowering phenology. We verified variations in climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) over a period of 10 years (2005–2014) and correlated them with the onset of flowering of four of these Malpighiaceae species. Furthermore, we tested whether the phenological synchronization among species has changed over time affecting the herbivory and fruit set. Herbivory and fruit production were recorded during three reproductive seasons (2008/2009, 2011/2012, 2013/2014). We developed a mathematical model to estimate the flower and fruit production in response to phenological changes for the next 5 years. Results show that climatic factors changed, influencing the onset of species flowering. The degree of overlap among species also changed and the effects on species interactions were species specific. The mathematical model successfully presented a tendency on flower and fruit production contributing to the predictions of the outcomes in response to phenological changes. We confirm the effects of climate changes on plant phenological events and the importance of feature plasticity for better performance of species.     

Climate change and the optimal flowering time of annual plants in seasonal environments

Long‐term phenology monitoring has documented numerous examples of changing flowering dates during the last century. A pivotal question is whether these phenological responses are adaptive or not under directionally changing climatic conditions. We use a classic dynamic growth model for annual plants, based on optimal control theory, to find the fitness‐maximizing flowering time, defined as the switching time from vegetative to reproductive growth. In a typical scenario of global warming, with advanced growing season and increased productivity, optimal flowering time advances less than the start of the growing season. Interestingly, increased temporal spread in production over the season may either advance or delay the optimal flowering time depending on overall productivity or season length. We identify situations where large phenological changes are necessary for flowering time to remain optimal. Such changes also indicate changed selection pressures. In other situations, the model predicts advanced phenology on a calendar scale, but no selection for early flowering in relation to the start of the season. We also show that the optimum is more sensitive to increased productivity when productivity is low than when productivity is high. All our results are derived using a general, graphical method to calculate the optimal flowering time applicable for a large range of shapes of the seasonal production curve. The model can thus explain apparent maladaptation in phenological responses in a multitude of scenarios of climate change. We conclude that taking energy allocation trade‐offs and appropriate time scales into account is critical when interpreting phenological patterns.     

Flower morphology, phenology and visitor patterns in an alpine community on Mt Olympos, Greece

Alpine vegetation, restricted to the top of high mountains, is among the vegetation types most endangered by global warming, currently predicted to raise temperatures from 1.1 to 6.4 °C, by the end of the century. Nevertheless, background information allowing evaluation of impacts is rather scarce for some geographic zones. Our study of an alpine community on the Plateau of Muses (2600–2750 m a.s.l.) of Mt Olympos, the highest mountain of Greece, conducted in 1993–1994, can provide such background information for the Mediterranean region. We studied features relating to phenology of flowering, floral morphology, distribution and abundance, and flower visitors of plant species that exhibit a biotic pollination syndrome. We identified dominant patterns and we further (i) explored the relative contribution of the plant features and abiotic factors studied in explaining the activity patterns of flower visitors, (ii) examined if flower and visitor traits of the alpine community match each other according to the classical pollination syndromes, and (iii) investigated whether the responses of individual plant species to the yearly climatic variability result into phenological patterns that characterize the whole community. The common strategy of the alpine community was for early flowering and long flower life span; consistently early flowering species were twice as many as late flowering ones, whereas floral longevity (estimated for 36 species) averaged 5.2 days. Duration of flowering (estimated for 57 species) averaged 18.2 days. Climatic variability affected onset of flowering; all late flowering species delayed their flowering during the year characterized by a humid and cold summer. Duration of flowering and floral longevity did not change in a consistent way. Hymenoptera (Aculeates) were the dominant flower visitors. They accounted for 43.3% of the visits recorded, with bumblebees making a little less than half. Diptera followed making 37.5% of the visits (most made by syrphid flies). There was a mismatch between flower-morphology and flower visitor traits; the alpine community had predominantly non-specialized, pale-colour flowers, which are traits assumed to correspond to Diptera dominance and absence of social bees. Visitation was influenced by flower abundance and duration of flowering; proportionately more Diptera, and proportionately less Hymenoptera visited species with short flowering periods and few flowers present in the field. In a number of cases, the phenological and flower visitor patterns of the community of Mt Olympos deviated from those observed in other alpine environments suggesting a mediterranean influence even at high altitudes.