The influence of climate on average nitrogen export from large watersheds in the Northeastern United States

The flux of nitrogen in large rivers in North America and Europe is well explained as a function of the net anthropogenic inputs of nitrogen to the landscape, with on average 20 to 25% of these inputs exported in rivers and 75 to 80% of the nitrogen retained or denitrified in the landscape. Here, we use data for average riverine nitrogen fluxes and anthropogenic inputs of nitrogen over a 6-year period (1988–1993) for 16 major watersheds in the northeastern United States to examine if there is also a climatic influence on nitrogen fluxes in rivers. Previous studies have shown that for any given river, nitrogen fluxes are greater in years with higher discharge, but this can be interpreted as storage of nitrogen in the landscape during dry years and flushing of this stored nitrogen during wet years. Our analyses demonstrate that there is also a longer-term steady-state influence of climate on riverine nitrogen fluxes. Those watersheds that have higher precipitation and higher discharge export a greater fraction of the net anthropogenic inputs of nitrogen. This fractional export ranges from 10 to 15% of the nitrogen inputs in drier watersheds in the northeastern United States to over 35% in the wetter watersheds. We believe this is driven by lower rates of denitrification in the wetter watersheds, perhaps because shorter water residence times do not allow for as much denitrification in riparian wetlands and low-order streams. Using mean projections for the consequences of future climate change on precipitation and discharge, we estimate that nitrogen fluxes in the Susquehanna River to Chesapeake Bay may increase by 3 to 17% by 2030 and by 16 to 65% by 2095 due to greater fractional delivery of net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs as precipitation and discharge increase. Although these projections are highly uncertain, they suggest a need to better consider the influence of climate on riverine nitrogen fluxes as part of management efforts to control coastal nitrogen pollution.     

Net N input and riverine N export from Illinois agricultural watersheds with and without extensive tile drainage

Some of the largest riverine N fluxes in the continental USA have been observed in agricultural regions with extensive artificial subsurface drainage, commonly called tile drainage. The degree to which high riverine N fluxes in these settings are due to high net N inputs (NNI), greater transport efficiency caused by the drainage systems, or other factors is not known. The objective of this study was to evaluate the role of tile drainage by comparing NNI and riverine N fluxes in regions of Illinois with similar climate and crop production practices but with different intensities of tile drainage. Annual values of NNI between 1940 and 1999 were estimated from county level agricultural production statistics and census estimates of human population. During 1945–1961, riverine nitrate flux in the extensively tile drained region averaged 6.6kgNha^–1year^–1 compared to 1.3 to 3.1kgNha^–1 for the non-tile drained region, even though NNI was greater in the non-tile drained region. During 1977–1997, NNI to the tile-drained region had increased to 27kgNha^–1year^–1 and riverine N flux was approximately 100% of this value. In the non-tile-drained region, NNI was approximately 23kgNha^–1year^–1 and riverine N flux was between 25% and 37% of this value (5 to 9kgNha^–1year^–1). Denitrification is not included in NNI and, therefore, any denitrification losses from tile-drained watersheds must be balanced by other N sources, such as depletion of soil organic N or underestimation of biological N fixation. If denitrification and depletion of soil organic N are significant in these basins, marginal reductions in NNI may have little influence on riverine N flux. If tile drained cropland in Illinois is representative of the estimated 11 million ha of tile drained cropland throughout the Mississippi River Basin, this 16% of the drainage area contributed approximately 30% of the increased nitrate N flux in the Lower Mississippi River that occurred between 1955 and the 1990s.     

Effects of 21st‐century climate,land use,and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO₂. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by ?188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of ?89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of ?9.4% (?432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from ?916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO₂ is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated.     

Watershed nitrogen input and riverine export on the west coast of the US

This study evaluated the sources, sinks, and factors controlling net export of nitrogen (N) from watersheds on the west coast of the US. We calculated input of new N to 22 watersheds for 1992 and 2002. 1992 inputs ranged from 541 to 11,644 kg N km⁻² year⁻¹, with an overall area-weighted average of 1,870 kg N km⁻² year⁻¹. In 2002, the range of inputs was 490–10,875 kg N km⁻² year⁻¹, averaging 2,158 kg N km⁻² year⁻¹. Fertilizer was the most important source of new N, averaging 956 (1992) and 1,073 kg N km⁻² year⁻¹ (2002). Atmospheric deposition was the next most important input, averaging 833 (1992) and 717 kg N km⁻² year⁻¹ (2002), followed by biological N fixation in agricultural lands. Riverine N export, calculated based on measurements taken at the furthest downstream USGS water quality monitoring station, averaged 165 (1992) and 196 kg N km⁻² year⁻¹ (2002), although data were available for only 7 watersheds at the latter time point. Downstream riverine N export was correlated with variations in streamflow (export = 0.94 × streamflow − 5.65, R ² = 0.66), with N inputs explaining an additional 16% of the variance (export = 1.06 × streamflow + 0.06 × input − 227.78, R ² = 0.82). The percentage of N input that is exported averaged 12%. Percent export was also related to streamflow (%export = 0.05 × streamflow − 2.61, R ² = 0.60). The correlations with streamflow are likely a result of its large dynamic range in these systems. However, the processes that control watershed N export are not yet completely understood.     

Proton production from nitrogen transformation drives stream export of base cations in acid-sensitive forested watersheds

The biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen (N) and base cations (BCs), (i.e., K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺), play critical roles in plant nutrition and ecosystem function. Empirical correlations between large experimental N fertilizer additions to forest ecosystems and increased BCs loss in stream water are well demonstrated, but the mechanisms driving this coupling remain poorly understood. We hypothesized that protons generated through N transformation (PPR_N)—quantified as the balance of NH₄⁺ (H⁺ source) and NO₃⁻ (H⁺ sink) in precipitation versus the stream output will impact BCs loss in acid-sensitive ecosystems. To test this hypothesis, we monitored precipitation input and stream export of inorganic N and BCs for three years in an acid-sensitive forested watershed in a granite area of subtropical China. We found the precipitation input of inorganic N (17.71 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ with 54% as NH₄⁺–N) was considerably higher than stream exported inorganic N (5.99 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ with 83% as NO₃⁻–N), making the watershed a net N sink. The stream export of BCs (151, 1518, 851, and 252 mol ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ for K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺, respectively) was positively correlated (r = 0.80, 0.90, 0.84, and 0.84 for K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺ on a monthly scale, respectively, P < 0.001, n = 36) with PPR_N (389 mol ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) over the three years, suggesting that PPR_N drives loss of BCs in the acid-sensitive ecosystem. A global meta-analysis of 15 watershed studies from non-calcareous ecosystems further supports this hypothesis by showing a similarly strong correlation between ∑BCs output and PPR_N (r = 0.89, P < 0.001, n = 15), in spite of the pronounced differences in environmental settings. Collectively, our results suggest that N transformations rather than anions (NO₃⁻ and/or SO₄²⁻) leaching specifically, are an important mediator of BCs loss in acid-senstive ecosystems. Our study provides the first definitive evidence that the chronic N deposition and subsequent transformation within the watershed drive stream export of BCs through proton production in acid-sensitive ecosystems, irrespective of their current relatively high N retention. Our findings suggest the N-transformation-based proton production can be used as an indicator of watershed outflow quality in the acid-sensitive ecosystems.     

Pre-industrial and contemporary fluxes of nitrogen through rivers: a global assessment based on typology

This paper provides a global synthesis of reactive nitrogen (Nr) loading to the continental landmass and subsequent riverine nitrogen fluxes under a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance, from pre-industrial to contemporary. A mass balance model of nitrogen loading to the landmass is employed to account for transfers of Nr between atmospheric input sources (as food and feed products) and subsequent consumer output loads. This calculation produces a gridded surface of nitrogen loading ultimately mobilizable to aquatic systems (Nmob). Compared to the pre-industrial condition, nitrogen loading to the landmass has doubled from 111 to 223Tg/year due to anthropogenic activities. This is particularly evident in the industrialized areas of the globe where contemporary levels of nitrogen loading have increased up to 6-fold in many areas. The quantity of nitrogen loaded to the landscape has shifted from a chiefly fixation-based system (89% of total loads) in the pre-industrial state to a heterogeneous mix in contemporary times where fertilizer (15%), livestock (24%) and atmospheric deposition (15%) dominate in many parts of the industrialized and developing world. A nitrogen transport model is developed from a global database of drainage basin characteristics and a comprehensive compendium of river chemistry observations. The model utilizes constituent delivery coefficients based on basin temperature and hydraulic residence times in soils, rivers, lakes and reservoirs to transport nitrogen loads to river mouths. Fluxes are estimated for total nitrogen, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and total organic nitrogen. Model results show that total nitrogen fluxes from river basins have doubled from 21Tg/year in the pre-industrial to 40Tg/year in the contemporary period, with many industrialized areas of the globe showing an increase up to 5-fold. DIN fluxes from river basins have increased 6-fold from 2.4Tg/year in the pre-industrial to 14.5Tg/year in the contemporary period. The amount of nitrogen loading delivered to river mouth as flux is greatly influenced by both basin temperatures and hydraulic residence times suggesting a regional sensitivity to loading. The global, aggregate nitrogen retention on the continental land mass is 82%, with a range of 0–100% for individual basins. We also present the first seasonal estimates of riverine nitrogen fluxes at the global scale based on monthly discharge as the primary driver.     

Simulation of watershed hydrology and stream water quality under land use and climate change scenarios in Teshio River watershed,northern Japan

Quantitative prediction of environmental impacts of land-use and climate change scenarios in a watershed can serve as a basis for developing sound watershed management schemes. Water quantity and quality are key environmental indicators which are sensitive to various external perturbations. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impacts of land-use and climate changes on water quantity and quality at watershed scale and to understand relationships between hydrologic components and water quality at that scale under different climate and land-use scenarios. We developed an approach for modeling and examining impacts of land-use and climate change scenarios on the water and nutrient cycles. We used an empirical land-use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE) and a watershed hydrology and nutrient model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) for the Teshio River watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Predicted future land-use change (from paddy field to farmland) under baseline climate conditions reduced loads of sediment, total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorous (P) from the watershed to the river. This was attributable to higher nutrient uptake by crops and less nutrient mineralization by microbes, reduced nutrient leaching from soil, and lower water yields on farmland. The climate changes (precipitation and temperature) were projected to have greater impact in increasing surface runoff, lateral flow, groundwater discharge and water yield than would land-use change. Surface runoff especially decreased in April and May and increased in March and September with rising temperature. Under the climate change scenarios, the sediment and nutrient loads increased during the snowmelt and rainy seasons, while N and P uptakes by crops increased during the period when fertilizer is normally applied (May through August). The sediment and nutrient loads also increased with increasing winter rainfall because of warming in that season. Organic nutrient mineralization and nutrient leaching increased as well under climate change scenarios. Therefore, we predicted annual water yield, sediment and nutrient loads to increase under climate change scenarios. The sediment and nutrient loads were mainly supplied from agricultural land under land use in each climate change scenario, suggesting that riparian zones and adequate fertilizer management would be a potential mitigation strategy for reducing these negative impacts of land-use and climate changes on water quality. The proposed approach provides a useful source of information for assessing the consequences of hydrology processes and water quality in future land-use and climate change scenarios.     

应用SWAT模型研究潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响

为定量分析潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对流域径流变化的影响,应用SWAT模型对流域上游至下游的大阁、戴营和下会3个水文站径流进行模拟,采用情景法分析径流对土地利用和气候变化的响应。在模型校准期和验证期采用两个参数:p因子和r因子来评价模拟的拟合度及不确定性。结果表明,3个水文站在校准期和验证期的p因子值分别为:0.70和0.77,0.87和0.82,0.92和0.78,r因子值分别为0.63和0.90,0.97和0.79,0.88和0.92,评价整个流域模拟有效性的模型目标函数g最佳值为0.66,说明该模型对潮河流域的产水量模拟具有很好的适用性。以1981—1990年为基准期,1991—2000年流域土地利用变化造成年径流量减少了4.10 mm,而气候变化导致年径流增加了29.68 mm;2001—2009年土地利用变化造成年径流量减少2.98mm,气候变化造成年径流量减少了14.30 mm。与1999年土地利用条件模拟径流值相比,几种极端情景法模拟分析结果表明:灌木林地情景下年径流增加了158.2%,草地情景下年径流增加了4.1%,林地和耕地情景下年径流分别减少23.7%和41.7%;不同气候变异情景模拟结果显示,径流对降水的变化敏感性高于对温度变化的敏感性,降水每增加10%,径流平均增加23.9%。温度每增加12%,径流平均减少6%。因此,在气候变化背景下,优化土地利用结构与方式是实现流域水资源科学管理的途径之一。     

Land use and nitrogen export in the Piracicaba River basin, Southeast Brazil

Anthropogenic N inputs and riverine export were determined for a meso-scale river basin in one of the most developed and economically important regions of South America. The Piracicaba River basin is located in southeastern Brazil and drains into a tributary of the Paraná River. The basin supports over 3 million people (about 2% of the population of Brazil) with intensive agricultural and industrial activities. During two years from 1995 to 1997, biweekly samples were collected at 10 stations along the Piracicaba River and its tributaries for analyses of dissolved and particulate N. The average annual flux of dissolved inorganic N and total N increased by a factor of 15 and 20 times, respectively, from the headwaters to the lower reaches of the main channel, whereas discharge increased by only 7 times. On a per area basis, the export of TN varied according to land use and was significantly correlated to the net input of anthropogenic N. Among 10 sub-catchments composing the basin, areas mostly covered by pasture and forest had the lowest export, whereas more agricultural and urban areas had higher export. The amount of N exported from each sub-catchment varied widely, but inputs were consistently higher than fluvial outputs. Losses and retention of N occurred throughout the basin but were especially high in the sub-catchment with a main-stem reservoir, suggesting that aquatic processing plays an important role in controlling riverine N export. Total net anthropogenic input to the Piracicaba River basin was 4,500 (± 900) kg N km^–2 yr^–1 of which about 40% was exported via fluvial outputs.     

Biogeochemistry of unpolluted forested watersheds in the Oregon Cascades: temporal patterns of precipitation and stream nitrogen fluxes

We analyzed long-term organic and inorganic nitrogen inputs and outputs in precipitation and streamwater in six watersheds at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the central Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Total bulk N deposition, averaging 1.6 to 2.0 kg N ha^–1 yr^–1, is low compared to other sites in the United States and little influenced by anthropogenic N sources. Streamwater N export is also low, averaging <1 kg ha^–1 yr^–1. DON is the predominant form of N exported from all watersheds, followed by PON, NH₄-N, and NO₃-N. Total annual stream discharge was a positive predictor of annual DON output in all six watersheds, suggesting that DON export is related to regional precipitation. In contrast, annual discharge was a positive predictor of annual NO₃-N output in one watershed, annual NH₄-N output in three watersheds, and annual PON output in three watersheds. Of the four forms of N, only DON had consistent seasonal concentration patterns in all watersheds. Peak streamwater DON concentrations occurred in November-December after the onset of fall rains but before the peak in the hydrograph, probably due to flushing of products of decomposition that had built up during the dry summer. Multiple biotic controls on the more labile nitrate and ammonium concentrations in streams may obscure temporal DIN flux patterns from the terrestrial environment. Results from this study underscore the value of using several watersheds from a single climatic zone to make inferences about controls on stream N chemistry; analysis of a single watershed may preclude identification of geographically extensive mechanisms controlling N dynamics.     

Maritime climate influence on chaparral composition and diversity in the coast range of central California

We investigated the hypothesis that maritime climatic factors associated with summer fog and low cloud stratus (summer marine layer) help explain the compositional diversity of chaparral in the coast range of central California. We randomly sampled chaparral species composition in 0.1‐hectare plots along a coast‐to‐interior gradient. For each plot, climatic variables were estimated and soil samples were analyzed. We used Cluster Analysis and Principle Components Analysis to objectively categorize plots into climate zone groups. Climate variables, vegetation composition and various diversity measures were compared across climate zone groups using ANOVA and nonmetric multidimensional scaling. Differences in climatic variables that relate to summer moisture availability and winter freeze events explained the majority of variance in measured conditions and coincided with three chaparral assemblages: maritime (lowland coast where the summer marine layer was strongest), transition (upland coast with mild summer marine layer influence and greater winter precipitation), and interior sites that generally lacked late summer water availability from either source. Species turnover (β‐diversity) was higher among maritime and transition sites than interior sites. Coastal chaparral differs from interior chaparral in having a higher obligate seeder to facultative seeder (resprouter) ratio and by being dominated by various Arctostaphylos species as opposed to the interior dominant, Adenostoma fasciculatum. The maritime climate influence along the California central coast is associated with patterns of woody plant composition and β‐diversity among sites. Summer fog in coastal lowlands and higher winter precipitation in coastal uplands combine to lower late dry season water deficit in coastal chaparral and contribute to longer fire return intervals that are associated with obligate seeders and more local endemism. Soil nutrients are comparatively less important in explaining plant community composition, but heterogeneous azonal soils contribute to local endemism and promote isolated chaparral patches within the dominant forest vegetation along the coast.     

Land use and stream nitrogen concentrations in agricultural watersheds along the central coast of California

In coastal California nitrogen (N) in runoff from urban and agricultural land is suspected to impair surface water quality of creeks and rivers that discharge into the Monterey Bay Sanctuary. However, quantitative data on the impacts of land use activities on water quality are largely limited to unpublished reports and do not estimate N loading. We report on spatial and temporal patterns of N concentrations for several coastal creeks and rivers in central California. During the 2001 water year, we estimated that the Pajaro River at Chittenden exported 302.4 Mg of total N. Nitrate-N concentrations were typically <1 mg N l(-1) in grazing lands, oak woodlands, and forests, but increased to a range of 1 to 20 mg N l(-1) as surface waters passed through agricultural lands. Very high concentrations of nitrate (in excess of 80 mg N l(-1)) were found in selected agricultural ditches that received drainage from tiles (buried perforated pipes). Nitrate concentrations in these ditches remained high throughout the winter and spring, indicating nitrate was not being flushed out of the soil profile. We believe unused N fertilizer has accumulated in the shallow groundwater through many cropping cycles. Results are being used to organize landowners, resource managers, and growers to develop voluntary monitoring and water quality protection plans.     

Cumulative effects of land use,altered fire regime and climate change on persistence of Ceanothus verrucosus,a rare,fire‐dependent plant species

Mediterranean ecosystems are among the highest in species richness and endemism globally and are also among the most sensitive to climate and land‐use change. Fire is an important driver of ecosystem processes in these systems; however, fire regimes have been substantially changed by human activities. Climate change is predicted to further alter fire regimes and species distributions, leading to habitat loss and threatening biodiversity. It is currently unknown what the population‐level effects of these landscape‐level changes will be. We linked a spatially explicit stochastic population model to dynamic bioclimate envelopes to investigate the effects of climate change, habitat loss and fragm entation and altered fire regime on population abundances of a long‐lived obligate seeding shrub, Ceanothus verrucosus, a rare endemic species of southern California. We tested a range of fire return intervals under the present and two future climate scenarios. We also assessed the impact of potential anthropogenic land‐use change by excluding land identified as developable by local governments. We found that the 35–50 year fire return interval resulted in the highest population abundances. Expected minimum population abundance (EMA) declined gradually as fire return interval increased, but declined dramatically for shorter fire intervals. Simulated future development resulted in a 33% decline in EMA, but relatively stable population trajectories over the time frame modeled. Relative changes in EMA for alternative fire intervals were similar for all climate and habitat loss scenarios, except under the more severe climate scenario which resulted in a change in the relative ranking of the fire scenarios. Our results show climate change to be the most serious threat facing obligate seeding shrubs embedded in urban landscapes, resulting in population decline and increased local extirpation, and that likely interactions with other threats increase risks to these species. Taking account of parameter uncertainty did not alter our conclusions.     

Impact of changing wood demand,climate and land use on European forest resources and carbon stocks during the 21st century

We used the European Forest Information Scenario Model (EFISCEN) to project the development of forest resources for 15 European countries from 2000 to 2100 under a broad range of climate scenarios, which were based on the a1fi, a2, b1 and b2 storylines of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Each climate scenario was associated with consistent land-use change and wood demand assumptions. Climate change-induced growth changes were incorporated into the calculations by scaling inventory-based stem growth in EFISCEN by net primary productivity estimated from the Lund–Potsdam–Jena dynamic global vegetation model. The impact of changes in wood demand, climate and forest area were studied separately, and in combination, in order to assess their respective effects. For all climate scenarios under consideration, climate change resulted in increased forest growth, especially in Northern Europe. In Southern Europe, higher precipitation in spring and the projected increased water-use efficiency in response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations mitigated the effects of increasing summer drought. Climate change enhanced carbon sequestration in tree biomass. The climate change-induced increase in tree growth led to a faster increase in growing stocks compared with the simulation using current climate. As productivity decreased in higher stocked forests, the positive impact of climate change began to level off during the second half of the 21st century in the scenarios where wood demand was low. Afforestation measures had the potential to increase growing stock and annual increment; however, large areas were needed to obtain notable effects. Despite noticeable differences in the growth response between the climate scenarios, changes in wood demand proved to be the crucial driving force in forest resource development. Tree carbon stocks increased by 33–114% between 2000 and 2100 when only changes in wood demand were regarded. Climate change added another 23–31% increase, while changes in forest area accounted for an additional increase of 2–40%. Our results highlight potential future pathways of forest resource development resulting from different scenarios of wood demand, land use and climate changes, and stress the importance of resource utilization in the European forest carbon balance.     

Variability in 20th century climate change reconstructions and its consequences for predicting geographic responses of California mammals

Empirical species distribution models are widely used to predict the effects of climate change on biodiversity distribution but rely on multiple assumptions about the certainty of the locality and climate data. Here, we assess the effect of historical climate data variability when forecasting geographic responses of California mammals to 20th century climate change. We first used two methods to derive gridded climate surfaces from weather station data (ANUSPLIN and PRISM) representing two sampling eras: historic (1900–1940) and current (1980–2005). We then used the two sources of climate data in conjunction with a maximum entropy algorithm (MAXENT) to predict both the historic and current distributions of all major mammal species vouchered historically in California. Results indicate that levels of disagreement between the two climate datasets are considerably greater in the historical era than in the current era. For the bioclimatic variables used in modeling historical mammal distributions, precipitation variables were less concordant than temperature variables. These discrepancies are reflected in the low agreement between historic mammal range predictions and further propagated when the historic models are projected to present day. Nonetheless, some common patterns exist across mammal species and climate estimates. Range stability is the most common prediction between the two eras, followed by expansion and contraction. Jepson ecoregions with relatively high levels of range stability include parts of the Great Central Valley and Sierra Nevada, while other parts of the Central Valley, the Sonoran desert, and Central- and Southwestern California yield predictions of range shifts. Historical species distribution modeling can greatly inform studies attempting to describe how species will continue to move geographically in response to future changes in climate. We suggest that alternative estimates of historical climate and their uncertainties are ultimately required in order to provide a quantitative measure of the confidence in predicted changes in distribution.     

Dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen in urban and rural watersheds of south-central Texas: land use and land management influences

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) concentrations were quantified in urban and rural watersheds located in central Texas, USA between 2007 and 2008. The proportion of urban land use ranged from 6 to 100% in our 12 study watersheds which included nine watersheds without waste water treatment plants (WWTP) and three watersheds sampled downstream of a WWTP. Annual mean DOC concentrations ranged 20.4–52.5 mg L^?1. Annual mean DON concentrations ranged 0.6–1.9 mg L^?1. Only the rural watersheds without a WWTP had significantly lower DOC concentrations compared to those watersheds with a WWTP but all the streams except two had significantly reduced DON compared to those with a WWTP. Analysis of the nine watersheds without a WWTP indicated that 68% of the variability in mean annual DOC concentration was explained by urban open areas such as golf courses, sports fields and neighborhood parks under turf grass. There was no relationship between annual mean DON concentration and any land use. Urban open area also explained a significant amount of the variance in stream sodium and stream sodium adsorption ratio (SAR). Ninety-four percent of the variance in annual mean DOC concentration was explained by SAR. Irrigation of urban turf grass with domestic tap water high in sodium (>181 mg Na⁺ L^?1) may be inducing sodic soil conditions in watershed soils in this region resulting in elevated mean annual DOC concentrations in our streams.     

Effects of water regime on growth,yield, and nitrogen uptake of rice

Summary The effects of water regime on the performance of rice were investigated in a greenhouse experiment and two field experiments. The greenhouse experiment involved four water regimes (continuous flooding, and soil drying for 16 days — begun 2, 5, and 8 weeks after transplanting — followed by reflooding), four soils, and 0 and 100 mg N/kg. Soil drying raised the redox potentials of all soils beyond the aerobic threshold. Averaged for soils and N levels, yields from treatments in which soil drying was begun at 2 and 5 weeks after transplanting were lower than that from the continuously flooded treatment, but the simple effects of soil drying on yield and N uptake depended on the soil and the growth stage of the plant. None of the soil-drying treatments had adverse effects in the soil high in N but soil drying at 2 and 5 weeks after transplanting had adverse effects in the soil low in N. The field experiments tested the effects of three water regimes (continuous flooding, alternate drying and flooding every 2 weeks, and soil drying for 2 weeks at 6 weeks after transplanting following by reflooding), and 0, 50, 100, and 150 kg N/ha on a nearly neutral clay soil, during two seasons. None of the soil-drying treatments depressed growth, yield, or N uptake by rice at any level of N in either season. Nitrate was absent after drying, so denitrification was not possible on subsequent flooding. The adverse effects on yield of alternate flooding and drying, attributed to nitrification-denitrification, may be insignificant in wetland fields carrying an actively growing rice crop.     

Nitrogen budget and gaseous nitrogen loss in a tropical agricultural watershed

Although agricultural systems in tropical monsoon Asia play a central role in the global nitrogen (N) cycle, details of the N cycle in this region on a watershed scale remain unclear. This study quantified the N budget in a tropical watershed of 221 km² on Java Island, where paddy fields cover 28% of the land, by conducting field surveys. The amount of net biochemical gaseous N loss to the atmosphere (X _GB ), which is generally difficult to determine, was calculated as the residual of the N balance. Assuming that NH₃ volatilization balances deposition, and hence subtracting NH₄–N from the N import with atmospheric deposition, the average total import and export of N per year was found to be 46.5 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ over the watershed. Of this, 71% was imported as fertilizer (M _F ) and 29% with atmospheric deposition (M _AD ). On the export side, 42% was lost as X _GB , 37% with incineration of rice residues and wood fuel (X _GI ), 13% with river discharge (X _D ) and 9% with rice surplus export (X _R ). A large portion of X _GB , and consequently, a small portion of X _D could be explained by the high rate of denitrification resulting from the high temperature and humid climate, and are thought to be common features of tropical watersheds where paddy fields are found.     

Mass balance of nitrogen, and estimates of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus used in microbial synthesis as a function of sludge retention time in a sequencing batch reactor system

This study investigated characteristics of a sequencing batch reactor (SBR) system which was varied with respect to sludge retention time (SRT) (5.9, 8.2, 10.5, 12.2, and 16.2 days). The removal efficiencies of chemical oxygen demand (COD) were more than 90% under all SRT conditions, and the greatest efficiency (92.2%) occurred with a SRT of 16.2 days. As the SRT increased, the denitrification rate per mixed liquor suspended solids (MLSS) during the anoxic(I) period decreased significantly from 166.3 mg NO(X)(-)-N/g MLSS d to 68.8 mg NO(X)(-)-N/g MLSS d. As the SRT increased, the phosphorus removal efficiency decreased from 47.1% (SRT of 5.9 days) to 31.0% for a SRT of 16.2 days, because active phosphate release and uptake occurred under shorter SRT conditions. The mass balance of nitrogen (with respect to nitrogen in the influent) at a SRT of 16.2 days (the highest nitrogen removal efficiency) showed 14.9% of nitrogen was removed in clarified water effluent, 49.7% was removed by the sludge waste process and 33.3% was removed by denitrification. Nitrogen processing was well accounted for in the SBR system as the nitrogen mass balance was close to 100% (97.9%).