Evaluating the relationship between basin‐scale fish species richness and ecologically relevant flow characteristics in rivers worldwide

1. River flow alterations due to climate change and increasing water usage affect freshwater biodiversity including fish species richness. Here, we statistically explored the relationships of fish species richness to 14 ecologically relevant flow metrics as well as basin area and latitude in 72 rivers worldwide. 2. The statistical models best supported by the data included three variables with positive coefficients (mean river discharge, basin area and the maximum proportion of no‐flooding period) and three variables with negative coefficients (latitude, coefficients of variation in the frequency of low flow and the Julian date of annual minimum flow). 3. The model outputs have provided the first empirical indication that specific low‐ and high‐flow characteristics may be important in explaining variations in basin‐scale fish species richness. Our findings can be useful in identifying high‐risk basins for conservation of fish species diversity. 4. The results not only support the adoption of mean discharge as a predictor, but also suggest the importance of basin area in predicting basin‐scale fish species richness around the world.     

Climate‐change winners and losers: stream macroinvertebrates of a submontane region in Central Europe

1. Freshwater ecosystems will be profoundly affected by global climate change, especially those in mountainous areas, which are known to be particularly vulnerable to warming temperatures. We modelled impacts of climate change on the distribution ranges of 38 species of benthic stream macroinvertebrates from nine macroinvertebrate orders covering all river zones from the headwaters to large river reaches. 2. Species altitudinal shifts as well as range changes up to the year 2080 were simulated using the A2a and B2a Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate‐warming scenarios. Presence‐only species distribution models were constructed for a stream network in Germany’s lower mountain ranges by means of consensus projections of four algorithms, as implemented in the BIOMOD package in R (GLM, GAM, GBM and ANN). 3. Species were predicted to shift an average of 122 and 83 m up in altitude along the river continuum by the year 2080 under the A2a and B2a climate‐warming scenarios, respectively. No correlation between altitudinal shifts and mean annual air temperature of species’ occurrence could be detected. 4. Depending on the climate‐warming scenario, most or all (97% for A2a and 100% for B2a) of the macroinvertebrate species investigated were predicted to survive under climate change in the study area. Ranges were predicted to contract for species that currently occur in streams with low annual mean air temperatures but expand for species that inhabit rivers where air temperatures are higher. 5. Our models predict that novel climate conditions will reorganise species composition and community structure along the river continuum. Possible effects are discussed, including significant reductions in population size of headwater species, eventually leading to a loss of genetic diversity. A shift in river species composition is likely to enhance the establishment of non‐native macroinvertebrates in the lower reaches of the river continuum.     

Highlighting declines of cold‐demanding plant species in lowlands under climate warming

High rates of species extinction have been predicted for the next century as a consequence of climate change. Although species range shifts have been widely reported, evidence of changes in species frequency linked to recent climate change is scarce. Moreover, studies have mainly focused on mountainous ecosystems and species. There is thus a clear lack of understanding of the recent changes in species frequencies linked to climate change across their whole range. Using a large forest vegetation‐plot database, we investigated changes in cold and warm‐demanding forest plant species frequencies between the periods 1914–1987 and 1997–2013 in French lowlands and highlands. Changes in frequencies were assessed for 185 lowland (warm‐demanding), 135 sub‐montane (intermediate) and 104 montane (cold‐demanding) forest plant species. Observed changes were compared to predicted changes derived from species distribution model predictions. The frequency of montane and sub‐montane species strongly declined, whereas the frequency of lowland species remained steady in lowland areas. In highlands, the frequency of lowland, sub‐montane and montane species increased, remained steady and decreased, respectively. Predicted and observed trends of changes in the frequency of forest plant species were in agreement. These results clearly show that cold‐demanding species are currently declining in lowlands that correspond to their warm range margins, whereas warm‐demanding species are expanding in highlands that correspond to their cold range margins. These trends can be seen as early signs of future regional extinction and reshuffling of the spatial presence of species due to climate warming.     

The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes,species dispersal and movement barriers

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use‐driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species‐specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up‐ vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled “moderate” and “severe” climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller‐bodied fishes and to contract for larger‐bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller‐bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger‐bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller‐bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.     

The role of hydro‐environmental factors in Mayfly (Ephemeroptera,Insecta) community structure: Identifying threshold responses

Freshwater organisms are threatened by changes in stream flow and water temperature regimes due to global climate change and anthropogenic activities. Threats include the disappearance of narrow‐tolerance species and loss of favorable thermal conditions for cold‐adapted organisms. Mayflies are an abundant and diverse indicator of river health that performs important functional roles. The relative importance of key hydro‐environmental factors such as water temperature and flow volumes in structuring these communities has rarely been explored in the tropical regions of Africa. Here, we investigate the response of mayfly species diversity to these factors in the Luvuvhu catchment, a strategic water source area in the arid northeastern region of South Africa. Mayfly larvae were sampled monthly in stones‐in‐current biotopes across 23 sites over a one‐year period. The relationship between these environmental drivers and mayfly diversity was modeled using linear mixed effects models (LMMs) and a model‐based multivariate approach. Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN) was used to model the response of mayfly species to important gradients and identify thresholds of change. Site‐specific characteristic were the most important predictor of mayfly diversity, and there was considerable variation over time, with mayfly diversity peaking during winter. Along this, gradient temperature was the best predictor of assemblage structure, with five out of six reliable indicator species being cold‐adapted, and a community threshold response at 19°C. Results support laboratory‐based thresholds of temperature for mayfly species survival and development, extending empirical evidence to include field‐based observations. Increased global (climate change) and local (riparian vegetation removal, impoundments) changes are predicted to have negative impacts on mayfly diversity and ultimately on ecosystem function.     

Response of three lotic assemblages to riparian and catchment‐scale land use: implications for designing catchment monitoring programmes

1. Although many studies have focussed on the effects of catchment land use on lotic systems, the importance of broad (catchment) and fine (segment/reach) scale effects on stream assemblages remain poorly understood. 2. Nine biological metrics for macrophytes (498 sites), benthic macroinvertebrates (491) and fish (478) of lowland and mountain streams in four ecoregions of France and Germany were related to catchment and riparian buffer land use using partial Redundancy Analysis and Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs). 3. Lotic fauna was better correlated (mean max., r = 0.450) than flora (r = 0.277) to both scales of land use: the strongest correlations were noted for mountain streams. BRTs revealed strong non‐linear relationships between mountain assemblage metrics and land use. Correlations increased with increasing buffer lengths, suggesting the importance of near‐stream land use on biotic assemblages. 4. Several metrics changed markedly between 10–20% (mountain ecoregions) and 40–45% (lowland) of arable land use, irrespective of the buffer size. At mountain sites with >10% catchment arable land use, metric values differed between sites with <30% and sites with >30% forest in the near‐stream riparian area. 5. These findings support the role of riparian land use in catchment management; however, differences between mountain and lowland ecoregions support the need for ecoregion‐specific management.     

Predicting community rank‐abundance distributions under current and future climates

Understanding influences of environmental change on biodiversity requires consideration of more than just species richness. Here we present a novel framework for understanding possible changes in species' abundance structures within communities under climate change. We demonstrate this using comprehensive survey and environmental data from 1748 woody plant communities across southeast Queensland, Australia, to model rank‐abundance distributions (RADs) under current and future climates. Under current conditions, the models predicted RADs consistent with the region's dominant vegetation types. We demonstrate that under a business as usual climate scenario, total abundance and richness may decline in subtropical rainforest and shrubby heath, and increase in dry sclerophyll forests. Despite these opposing trends, we predicted evenness in the distribution of abundances between species to increase in all vegetation types. By assessing the information rich, multidimensional RAD, we show that climate‐driven changes to community abundance structures will likely vary depending on the current composition and environmental context.     

Fish assemblage–environment relationships suggest differential trophic responses to heavy metal contamination

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COASTAL DIATOM‐ENVIRONMENT RELATIONSHIPS IN THE BRACKISH BALTIC SEA1

High‐quality calibration data sets are required when diatom assemblages are used for monitoring ecological change or reconstructing palaeo‐environments. The quality of such data sets can be validated, in addition to other criteria, by the percentage of significant unimodal species responses as a measure of the length of an environmental gradient. This study presents diatom‐environment relationships analyzed from a robust data set of diatom communities living on submerged stones along a 2,000 km long coastline in the Baltic Sea area, including 524 samples taken at 135 sites and covering a salinity gradient from 0.4 to 11.4. Altogether, 487 diatom taxa belonging to 102 genera were recorded. Detrended canonical correspondence analysis showed that salinity was the overriding environmental factor regulating diatom community composition, while exposure to wave action and nutrient concentrations were of secondary importance. Modeling the abundances of the 58 most common diatom taxa yielded significant relationships with salinity for 57 taxa. Twenty‐three taxa showing monotonic responses were species with optimum distributions in freshwater or marine waters. Thirty‐four taxa showing unimodal responses were brackish‐water species with maximum distributions at different salinities. Separate analyses for small (cell biovolume <1,000 μm³) and large (≥1,000 μm³) taxa yielded similar results. In previous studies along shorter salinity gradients, large and small epilithic diatom taxa responded differently. From our large data, we conclude that counts of large diatom taxa alone seem sufficient for indicating salinity changes in coastal environments with high precision.     

Recent vegetation changes at the high‐latitude tree line ecotone are controlled by geomorphological disturbance,productivity and diversity

Aim We test how productivity, disturbance rate, plant functional composition and species richness gradients control changes in the composition of high‐latitude vegetation during recent climatic warming. Location Northern Fennoscandia, Europe. Methods We resampled tree line ecotone vegetation sites sampled 26 years earlier. To quantify compositional changes, we used generalized linear models to test relationships between compositional changes and environmental gradients. Results Compositional changes in species abundances are positively related to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)‐based estimate of productivity gradient and to geomorphological disturbance. Competitive species in fertile sites show the greatest changes in abundance, opposed to negligible changes in infertile sites. Change in species richness is negatively related to initial richness, whereas geomorphological disturbance has positive effects on change in richness. Few lowland species have moved towards higher elevations. Main conclusions The sensitivity of vegetation to climate change depends on a complex interplay between productivity, physical and biotic disturbances, plant functional composition and richness. Our results suggest that vegetation on productive sites, such as herb‐rich deciduous forests at low altitudes, is more sensitive to climate warming than alpine tundra vegetation where grazing may have strong buffering effects. Geomorphological disturbance promotes vegetation change under climatic warming, whereas high diversity has a stabilizing effect.     

Juvenile growth of a macrohabitat generalist tied to hydrological character of large‐river system

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Mountain landscapes offer few opportunities for high‐elevation tree species migration

Climate change is anticipated to alter plant species distributions. Regional context, notably the spatial complexity of climatic gradients, may influence species migration potential. While high‐elevation species may benefit from steep climate gradients in mountain regions, their persistence may be threatened by limited suitable habitat as land area decreases with elevation. To untangle these apparently contradictory predictions for mountainous regions, we evaluated the climatic suitability of four coniferous forest tree species of the western United States based on species distribution modeling (SDM) and examined changes in climatically suitable areas under predicted climate change. We used forest structural information relating to tree species dominance, productivity, and demography from an extensive forest inventory system to assess the strength of inferences made with a SDM approach. We found that tree species dominance, productivity, and recruitment were highest where climatic suitability (i.e., probability of species occurrence under certain climate conditions) was high, supporting the use of predicted climatic suitability in examining species risk to climate change. By predicting changes in climatic suitability over the next century, we found that climatic suitability will likely decline, both in areas currently occupied by each tree species and in nearby unoccupied areas to which species might migrate in the future. These trends were most dramatic for high elevation species. Climatic changes predicted over the next century will dramatically reduce climatically suitable areas for high‐elevation tree species while a lower elevation species, Pinus ponderosa, will be well positioned to shift upslope across the region. Reductions in suitable area for high‐elevation species imply that even unlimited migration would be insufficient to offset predicted habitat loss, underscoring the vulnerability of these high‐elevation species to climatic changes.     

Importance of scale,land‐use,and stream network properties for riparian plant communities along an urban gradient

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Flow‐mediated predator–prey dynamics influence fish populations in a tropical river

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Climate‐induced changes in the distribution of freshwater fish: observed and predicted trends

1. Climate change could be one of the main threats faced by aquatic ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity. Improved understanding, monitoring and forecasting of its effects are thus crucial for researchers, policy makers and biodiversity managers. 2. Here, we provide a review and some meta‐analyses of the literature reporting both observed and predicted climate‐induced effects on the distribution of freshwater fish. After reviewing three decades of research, we summarise how methods in assessing the effects of climate change have evolved, and whether current knowledge is geographically or taxonomically biased. We conducted multispecies qualitative and quantitative analyses to find out whether the observed responses of freshwater fish to recent changes in climate are consistent with those predicted under future climate scenarios. 3. We highlight the fact that, in recent years, freshwater fish distributions have already been affected by contemporary climate change in ways consistent with anticipated responses under future climate change scenarios: the range of most cold‐water species could be reduced or shift to higher altitude or latitude, whereas that of cool‐ and warm‐water species could expand or contract. 4. Most evidence about the effects of climate change is underpinned by the large number of studies devoted to cold‐water fish species (mainly salmonids). Our knowledge is still incomplete, however, particularly due to taxonomic and geographic biases. 5. Observed and expected responses are well correlated among families, suggesting that model predictions are supported by empirical evidence. The observed effects are of greater magnitude and show higher variability than the predicted effects, however, indicating that other drivers of changes may be interacting with climate and seriously affecting freshwater fish. 6. Finally, we suggest avenues of research required to address current gaps in what we know about the climate‐induced effects on freshwater fish distribution, including (i) the need for more long‐term data analyses, (ii) the assessment of climate‐induced effects at higher levels of organisation (e.g. assemblages), (iii) methodological improvements (e.g. accounting for uncertainty among projections and species’ dispersal abilities, combining both distributional and empirical approaches and including multiple non‐climatic stressors) and (iv) systematic confrontation of observed versus predicted effects across multi‐species assemblages and at several levels of biological organisation (i.e. populations and assemblages).     

Shifts in population size structure for a drying‐tolerant fish in response to extreme drought

For freshwater systems, climate change‐induced alterations to drought regimes are a considerable threat to already threatened species. This is particularly poignant for kōwaro (or Canterbury mudfish, Neochanna burrowsius), a critically endangered fish largely restricted to drying‐prone waterways on the Canterbury Plains, New Zealand. By comparing three catchment‐wide surveys (2007, 2010, 2015) within the Waianiwaniwa Valley, we assessed the scale and magnitude of population change induced by 2 years of consecutive drought (2014–15), when compared to surveys during wetter conditions (2007, 2010). The droughts triggered a catchment‐wide switch from adult‐dominated populations to populations comprised of juveniles indicated by a significant reduction in median size (~95 mm during the wet to ~60 mm after drought). In comparison, population abundances were highly variable, indicated by no significant change in catch‐per‐unit‐effort. The large variation in catch rates and connection of median size to reproductive potential mean median size will be useful to measure in monitoring to infer potential changes to population resilience, particularly during extreme events. Furthermore, because N. burrowsius could be regarded as extremophile fish, already restricted to harsh habitats, they are likely to become increasingly threatened by climate change. Thus, tools that allow for insightful comparisons between populations, such as a population resilience framework based on both abundance and body size distribution, will be increasingly important for pragmatic decision‐making for targeted conservation measures.     

Developing flow–ecology relationships: Implications of nonlinear biological responses for water management

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Climate‐driven substitution of habitat‐forming species leads to reduced biodiversity within a temperate marine community

Aim

In marine ecosystems, habitat‐forming species (HFS) such as reef‐building corals and canopy‐forming macroalgae alter local environmental conditions and can promote biodiversity by providing biogenic living space for a vast array of associated organisms. We examined community‐level impacts of observed climate‐driven shifts in the relative abundances of two superficially similar HFS, the warm‐water kelp Laminaria ochroleuca and the cool‐water kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

Location

Western English Channel, north‐east Atlantic

Methods

We compared algal and invertebrate assemblages associated with kelp stipes and holdfasts, across multiple sites and sampling events. Significant differences were recorded in the structure of assemblages between the host kelp species at each site and event.

Results

Assemblages associated with stipes of the cool‐water HFS were, on average, >12 times more diverse and supported >3600 times more biomass compared with the warm‐water HFS. Holdfast assemblages also differed significantly between species, although to a lesser extent than those associated with stipes. Overall, assemblages associated with the warm‐water HFS were markedly impoverished and comprised far fewer rare or unique taxa.

Main conclusions

While previous research has shown how climate‐driven loss of HFS can cause biodiversity loss, our study demonstrates that climate‐driven substitutions of HFS can also lead to impoverished assemblages. The indirect effects of climate change remain poorly resolved, but shifts in the distributions and abundances of HFS may invoke widespread ecological change, especially in marine ecosystems where facilitative interactions are particularly strong.     

Climate and topography drives macroscale biodiversity through land‐use change in a human‐dominated world

Drivers of biodiversity at macroscales have long been of interest in ecology, and climate and topography are now considered to be major drivers. Because humans have transformed most of the Earth's land surface, land use may play a significant role as a driver of biodiversity at a macroscale. Here we disentangle the relationships among climate, topography, land use, available energy (measured by the normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]), and species richness of Japanese forest birds. Species richness was better explained at 40‐ and 80‐km resolutions than at 5‐, 10‐ and 20‐km resolutions; it was explained by climate, topography, and land use, and the effects of land use were fully incorporated into those of climate and topography. As temperature increased and elevation decreased, natural forest area decreased, and this decrease intensified in warm lowland areas. With the loss of natural forest, species richness decreased below a certain threshold. As temperature increased and elevation decreased, species richness and NDVI increased slightly or were unchanged in cool highland areas and decreased in warm lowland areas. Species richness increased linearly with the increase in NDVI. Most effects of climate/topography on species richness in warm lowland areas were shared by those of land use, suggesting that the decrease in species richness in warm lowland areas has been caused by loss of natural forest. Therefore, it is suggested that climate and topography determined land use intensity, which in turn, drove species richness through the depletion of available energy. Increasing temperature and decreasing elevation leads to both benefits (increase in potential available energy) and costs (depletion of energy by human land‐use change) for forest birds. These costs seem to override benefits in warm lowland areas.     

An attack on two fronts: predicting how changes in land use and climate affect the distribution of stream macroinvertebrates

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