MaxEnt模型参数设置对其所模拟物种地理分布和生态位的影响——以茶翅蝽为例

【目的】生态位模型被广泛应用于入侵生物学和保护生物学研究,现有建模工具中,MaxEnt是最流行和运用最广泛的生态位模型。然而最近研究表明,基于MaxEnt模型的默认参数构建模型时,模型倾向于过度拟合,并非一定为最佳模型,尤其是在处理一些分布点较少的物种。【方法】以茶翅蝽为例,通过设置不同的特征参数、调控倍频以及背景拟不存在点数分别构建茶翅蝽的本土模型,然后将其转入入侵地来验证和比较模型,通过检测模型预测的物种对环境因子的响应曲线、潜在分布在生态空间中的生态位映射以及潜在分布的空间差异性,探讨3种参数设置对MaxEnt模型模拟物种分布和生态位的影响。【结果】在茶翅蝽的案例分析中,特征参数的设置对MaxEnt模型所模拟的潜在分布和生态位的影响最大,调控倍频的影响次之,背景拟不存在点数的影响最小。与其他特征相比,基于特征H和T的模型其响应曲线较为曲折;随着调控倍频的增加,响应曲线变得圆滑。【结论】在构建MaxEnt模型时,需要从生态空间中考虑物种的生态需求,分析模型参数对预测物种分布和生态位可能造成的影响。     

Ecological differentiation among key plant mutualists from a cryptic ant guild

As key dispersers of herbaceous seeds, Aphaenogaster ants strongly influence the distribution of woodland plants in eastern North America. Ants within this genus are difficult to distinguish and often are identified by subgroup, but emerging research suggests they occupy species-specific ecological niches. As such, distinct climatic requirements among Aphaenogaster spp. might result in transient plant interactions with climate change. We examine whether there are ecological and distributional differences among Aphaenogaster species that coincide with current taxonomic differentiations. We use occurrence records for six Aphaenogaster spp. that occur in deciduous forests in eastern North America. We associate the geographic patterning of species occurrence with temperature and precipitation data, and we examine whether unique climatic niches characterize each species. We then predict habitat suitability throughout eastern North America using species distribution models. For verification, we test how well the predicted ranges fit observed occurrences using novel data sets for each species. We find that Aphaenogaster species within this cryptic genus demonstrate unique ecological and geographic signatures. Each species within the subgroup generally responds differently to temperature, and somewhat differently to precipitation and seasonal variance, suggesting unique ecological niches for each species. Our results indicate that each ant species may respond uniquely to changes in climate. Such shifts could disrupt current community associations and biotic interactions with ant-dispersed plants.     

Ecological Niche Transferability Using Invasive Species as a Case Study

Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species’ native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species’ native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger’s I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species’ dynamics in the invaded range.     

Pliocene–Pleistocene ecological niche evolution shapes the phylogeography of a Mediterranean plant group

Estimating species ability to adapt to environmental changes is crucial to understand their past and future response to climate change. The Mediterranean Basin has experienced remarkable climatic changes since the Miocene, which have greatly influenced the evolution of the Mediterranean flora. Here, we examine the evolutionary history and biogeographic patterns of two sedge sister species (Carex, Cyperaceae) restricted to the western Mediterranean Basin, but with Pliocene fossil record in central Europe. In particular, we estimated the evolution of climatic niches through time and its influence in lineage differentiation. We carried out a dated phylogenetic–phylogeographic study based on seven DNA regions (nDNA and ptDNA) and fingerprinting data (AFLPs), and modelled ecological niches and species distributions for the Pliocene, Pleistocene and present. Phylogenetic and divergence time analyses revealed that both species form a monophyletic lineage originated in the late Pliocene–early Pleistocene. We detected clear genetic differentiation between both species with distinct genetic clusters in disjunct areas, indicating the predominant role of geographic barriers limiting gene flow. We found a remarkable shift in the climatic requirements between Pliocene and extant populations, although the niche seems to have been relatively conserved since the Pleistocene split of both species. This study highlights how an integrative approach combining different data sources and analyses, including fossils, allows solid and robust inferences about the evolutionary history of a plant group since the Pliocene.     

The ‘Hutchinsonian niche’ as an assemblage of demographic niches: implications for species geographic ranges

Hutchinson defined the ecological niche as a hypervolume shaped by the environmental conditions under which a species can ‘exist indefinitely’. Although several authors further discussed the need to adopt a demographic perspective of the ecological niche theory, very few have investigated the environmental requirements of different components of species’ life cycles (i.e. vital rates) in order to examine their internal niche structures. It therefore remains unclear how species’ demography, niches and distributions are interrelated. Using comprehensive demographic data for two well‐studied, short‐lived plants (Plantago coronopus, Clarkia xantiana), we show that the arrangement of species’ demographic niches reveals key features of their environmental niches and geographic distributions. In Plantago coronopus, opposing geographic trends in some individual vital rates, through different responses to environmental gradients (demographic compensation), stabilize population growth across the range. In Clarkia xantiana, a lack of demographic compensation underlies a gradient in population growth, which could translate in a directional geographic range shift. Overall, our results highlight that occurrence and performance niches cannot be assumed to be the same, and that studying their relationship is essential for a better understanding of species’ ecological niches. Finally, we argue for the value of considering the assemblage of species’ demographic niches when studying ecological systems, and predicting the dynamics of species geographical ranges.     

Tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in Primates

Climatic niches have increasingly become a nexus in our understanding of a variety of ecological and evolutionary phenomena, from species distributions to latitudinal diversity gradients. Despite the increasing availability of comprehensive datasets on species ranges, phylogenetic histories, and georeferenced environmental conditions, studies on the evolution of climate niches have only begun to understand how niches evolve over evolutionary timescales. Here, using primates as a model system, we integrate recently developed phylogenetic comparative methods, species distribution patterns, and climatic data to explore primate climatic niche evolution, both among clades and over time. In general, we found that simple, constant‐rate models provide a poor representation of how climatic niches evolve. For instance, there have been shifts in the rate of climatic niche evolution in several independent clades, particularly in response to the increasingly cooler climates of the past 10 My. Interestingly, rate accelerations greatly outnumbered rate decelerations. These results highlight the importance of considering more realistic evolutionary models that allow for the detection of heterogeneity in the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution, as well as to infer possible constraining factors for species distributions in geographical space.     

Ecological and geographic modes of species divergence in wild tomatoes

Understanding the role of geography and ecology in species divergence is central to the study of evolutionary diversification. We used climatic, geographic, and biological data from nine wild Andean tomato species to describe each species' ecological niche and to evaluate the likely ecological and geographical modes of speciation in this clade. Using data from >1000 wild accessions and publicly available data derived from geographic information systems for various environmental variables, we found most species pairs were significantly differentiated for one or more environmental variables. By comparing species' predicted niches generated by species distribution modeling (SDM), we found significant niche differentiation among three of four sister-species pairs, suggesting ecological divergence is consistently associated with recent divergence. In comparison, based on age-range correlation (ARC) analysis, there was no evidence for a predominant geographical (allopatric vs. sympatric) context for speciation in this group. Overall, our results suggest an important role for environmentally mediated differentiation, rather than simply geographical isolation, in species divergence.     

Analyzing niche stability and biogeography of Late Ordovician brachiopod species using ecological niche modeling

Gauging the potential impacts of environmental change on the geographic distributions of species is a central area of modern biogeographic analysis, often involving complex models of species–environment interactions. The geographic distribution of fossil species can also provide a framework to test the impact of environmental change on biogeography and ecological niches of species, yet few paleontological analyses have attacked this question in deep time. Herein we present a quantitative biogeographic analysis to examine the stability of ecological niches and geographic ranges of rhynchonelliform brachiopods during an interval of sea level change preserved in Upper Ordovician strata of the Cincinnati Arch.The intensive sampling, excellent preservation, and numerous prior paleoecological and sedimentological analyses within the tri-state region of Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio provide a robust framework for detailed paleobiogeographic study. Quantitative biogeographic modeling methods incorporating GIS (Geographic Information Systems) are utilized in order to spatially analyze the geographic ranges of brachiopod species of the Corryville and Mt. Auburn Formations of the C3 (uppermost Maysvillian) depositional sequence.This study employs the ecological niche modeling program GARP (Genetic Algorithm using Rule-set Prediction) to predict the geographic distribution of eight brachiopod species during three time slices within the C3 sequence. This method estimates a species’ geographic range by modeling the ecological niche of the species based on a set of known species occurrence data coupled with environmental data inferred from sedimentologic proxies. Once environmental tolerances for a species are modeled; the species is predicted to occur wherever its preferred set of environmental conditions occurs within the study region.Distributional patterns were reconstructed for three time slices during the C3 sequence. Recovered range predictions were quantitatively analyzed for evidence of temporal range changes. Results indicate that average species range within the study area decreased and species tracked their preferred niche with high fidelity during the transition from the early to middle portions of the C3 depositional sequence, an interval of rapid relative sea level change. However, during the transition from the middle to late portions of the sequence, gradual shallowing within the basin and development of discontinuous habitat patches correlates with niche evolution of five of the eight species modeled. The average area a species occupied within the basin increased during this interval, but there is a mixed response including both increases and decreases in range size within the study group. In general, the species that exhibit niche evolution increased their geographic range size while those that continue to track their niche with high fidelity experience a decrease in geographic range size. During the latter half of the C3 sequence, previously continuous habitats become fragmented, thereby isolating individual populations and providing a mechanism for niche evolution. The rate of sea level change and the corresponding fragmentation of previously continuous habitats into isolated patches appear to be the primary controls on both mean geographic range size and relative degree of niche evolution.     

Quantifying the climatic niche of symbiont partners in a lichen symbiosis indicates mutualist‐mediated niche expansions

The large distributional areas and ecological niches of many lichenized fungi may in part be due to the plasticity in interactions between the fungus (mycobiont) and its algal or cyanobacterial partners (photobionts). On the one hand, broad‐scale phylogenetic analyses show that partner compatibility in lichens is rather constrained and shaped by reciprocal selection pressures and codiversification independent of ecological drivers. On the other hand, sub‐species‐level associations among lichen symbionts appear to be environmentally structured rather than phylogenetically constrained. In particular, switching between photobiont ecotypes with distinct environmental preferences has been hypothesized as an adaptive strategy for lichen‐forming fungi to broaden their ecological niche. The extent and direction of photobiont‐mediated range expansions in lichens, however, have not been examined comprehensively at a broad geographic scale. Here we investigate the population genetic structure of Lasallia pustulata symbionts at sub‐species‐level resolution across the mycobiont's Europe‐wide range, using fungal MCM7 and algal ITS rDNA sequence markers. We show that variance in occurrence probabilities in the geographic distribution of genetic diversity in mycobiont‐photobiont interactions is closely related to changes in climatic niches. Quantification of niche extent and overlap based on species distribution modeling and construction of Hutchinsonian climatic hypervolumes revealed that combinations of fungal–algal interactions change at the sub‐species level along latitudinal temperature gradients and in Mediterranean climate zones. Our study provides evidence for symbiont‐mediated niche expansion in lichens. We discuss our results in the light of symbiont polymorphism and partner switching as potential mechanisms of environmental adaptation and niche evolution in mutualisms.     

Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate

According to the IPCC, the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so‐far moderate warming is already impacting Arctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial–interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the Arctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow‐skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model‐testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow‐skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the whole Arctic food web and ecosystem.     

Niche differentiation in a postglacial colonizer,the bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus

Species‐level environmental niche modeling has been crucial in efforts to understand how species respond to climate variation and change. However, species often exhibit local adaptation and intraspecific niche differences that may be important to consider in predicting responses to climate. Here, we explore whether phylogeographic lineages of the bank vole originating from different glacial refugia (Carpathian, Western, Eastern, and Southern) show niche differentiation, which would suggest a role for local adaptation in biogeography of this widespread Eurasian small mammal. We first model the environmental requirements for the bank vole using species‐wide occurrences (210 filtered records) and then model each lineage separately to examine niche overlap and test for niche differentiation in geographic and environmental space. We then use the models to estimate past [Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and mid‐Holocene] habitat suitability to compare with previously hypothesized glacial refugia for this species. Environmental niches are statistically significantly different from each other for all pairs of lineages in geographic and environmental space, and these differences cannot be explained by habitat availability within their respective ranges. Together with the inability of most of the lineages to correctly predict the distributions of other lineages, these results support intraspecific ecological differentiation in the bank vole. Model projections of habitat suitability during the LGM support glacial survival of the bank vole in the Mediterranean region and in central and western Europe. Niche differences between lineages and the resulting spatial segregation of habitat suitability suggest ecological differentiation has played a role in determining the present phylogeographic patterns in the bank vole. Our study illustrates that models pooling lineages within a species may obscure the potential for different responses to climate change among populations.     

Which are the phenologically flexible species? A case study with common passerine birds

One of the most consensual ecological effects of the current climate warming is the alteration of the environmental timing of ecosystems. Phenological shifts, at different levels of food webs, are predicted to have major effects on species assemblages. Indeed it is unlikely that all species should be able to respond to the phenological shifts of their environment evenly. Yet questions remain about the specific traits that predict the ability of a species to track the temporal fluctuations of its environment. In this study, we use data from the French Constant Effort Site ringing program over a 20 years period (1989–2008) to estimate the ability of 20 common passerine species to adjust their breeding phenology to spring temperature variations. We show that the sensitivity of species breeding phenology to climate relates to species mean migration distance, species’ thermal and habitat niche breadth and brain mass. Species with the broadest ecological and thermal niches, the shortest mean migration distances and the largest brains were most able to adjust their breeding phenology to temperature variations. Our results thus identify long distance migrants and ecological specialists as species that could most suffer from the future expected climate change and suggests phenological adjustment as one possible mechanism underlying the replacement of specialist species by more generalist ones, the so called functional biotic homogenization.     

Importance of biotic niches versus drift in a plant‐inhabiting arthropod community depends on rarity and trophic group

Communities are mostly composed of rare species; yet, the factors that determine their patterns of occurrence remain obscure. Theory predicts that, in contrast with common species, the occurrence of rare species will be poorly correlated with environmental variables (niches) and more affected by stochasticity (ecological drift), but how this pattern varies across different trophic groups is still poorly understood. Here, we compared the ability of environmental variables (bottom–up biotic niches) to predict the occurrence of plant‐dwelling arthropods across different abundance classes in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa. We compared three trophic groups, including 104 herbivorous hemipteran, 171 parasitoid wasp and 84 spider species, totalling 4511 individuals in 48 quadrats. To quantify bottom–up biotic niches, we studied the influences of species composition of plants on hemipterans, and of plants and hemipterans on spiders and wasps. We compared the observed strength of the correlation between rare species and their niches with expectations that were generated by repeatedly rarefying abundant species. A large proportion of arthropod species were very rare, i.e. with only one or two individuals (49–55%). Although rarefying abundant species greatly decreased the correlation with bottom–up biotic niches, bottom–up biotic niches generally better predicted the occurrence of rarefied abundant species than very rare ones, suggesting a greater influence of drift on very rare arthropods. That is, (very) rare arthropods are distributed more randomly than rarefied abundant species. Nevertheless, trophic groups differed in the details of their response to bottom–up biotic niches. Plant species composition was a better predictor of rarefied abundant than truly rare hemipterans. In contrast, the importance of bottom–up biotic niches among abundance classes varied less visibly in spiders and wasps. Our study thus suggests that the importance of niches in structuring arthropod communities depends on species rarity and trophic group.     

Population demography influences climatic niche evolution: evidence from diploid American Hordeum species (Poaceae)

In this study, we explore the interplay of population demography with the evolution of ecological niches during or after speciation in Hordeum. While large populations maintain a high level of standing genetic diversity, gene flow and recombination buffers against fast alterations in ecological adaptation. Small populations harbour lower allele diversity but can more easily shift to new niches if they initially survive under changed conditions. Thus, large populations should be more conservative regarding niche changes in comparison to small populations. We used environmental niche modelling together with phylogenetic, phylogeographic and population genetic analyses to infer the correlation of population demography with changes in ecological niche dimensions in 12 diploid Hordeum species from the New World, forming four monophyletic groups. Our analyses found both shifts and conservatism in distinct niche dimensions within and among clades. Speciation due to vicariance resulted in three species with no pronounced climate niche differences, while species originating due to long‐distance dispersals or otherwise encountering genetic bottlenecks mostly revealed climate niche shifts. Niche convergence among clades indicates a niche‐filling pattern during the last 2 million years in South American Hordeum. We provide evidence that species, which did not encounter population reductions mainly showed ecoclimatic niche conservatism, while major niche shifts occurred in species which have undergone population bottlenecks. Our data allow the conclusion that population demography influences adaptation and niche shifts or conservatism in South American Hordeum species.     

Insect occurrence in agricultural land-uses depends on realized niche and geographic range properties

Geographic range size predicts species’ responses to land-use change and intensification, but the reason why is not well established because many correlates of larger geographic ranges, such as realized niche breadth, may mediate species’ responses to environmental change. Agricultural land uses (hereafter ‘agroecosystems’) have warm, dry and more variable microclimates than do cooler and wetter mature forests, so are predicted to filter for species that have warmer, drier and broader fundamental and realized niches. To test these predictions, we estimated species’ realized niches, for temperature and precipitation, and geographic range sizes of 764 insect species by matching GBIF occurrence records to global climate layers, and modelled how species presence/absence in mature forest and nearby agroecosystems depend on species’ realized niches or geographic ranges. The predicted species niche effects consistently matched the expected direction of microclimatic transition from mature forest to agroecosystems. We found a clear signal that species with preference for warmer and drier climates were more likely to be present in agroecosystems. In addition, the probability that species occurred in different land-use types was predicted better by species’ realized niche than their geographic range size. However, niche effects are often context-dependent and varied amongst studies, taxonomic groups and regions used in this analysis: predicting which particular aspects of species’ realized niche cause sensitivity to land-use change, and the underpinning mechanisms, remains a major challenge for future research and multiple components of species’ realized niches may be important to consider. Using realized niches derived from open-source occurrence records can be a simple and widely applicable tool to help identify when biodiversity responds to the microclimate component of land-use change.     

A comparative analysis reveals little evidence for niche conservatism in aquatic macrophytes among four areas on two continents

One of the most intriguing questions in current ecology is the extent to which the ecological niches of species are conserved in space and time. Niche conservatism has mostly been studied using coarse‐scale data of species' distributions, although it is at the local habitat scales where species' responses to ecological variables primarily take place. We investigated the extent to which niches of aquatic macrophytes are conserved among four study regions (i.e. Finland, Sweden and the US states of Minnesota and Wisconsin) on two continents (i.e. Europe and North America) using data for 11 species common to all the four study areas. We studied how ecological variables (i.e. local, climate and spatial variables) explain variation in the distributions of these common species in the four areas using species distribution modelling. In addition, we examined whether species' niche parameters vary among the study regions. Our results revealed large variation in both species' responses to the studied ecological variables and in species' niche parameters among the areas. We found little evidence for niche conservatism in aquatic macrophytes, though local environmental conditions among the studied areas were largely similar. This suggests that niche shifts, rather than different environmental conditions, were responsible for variable responses of aquatic macrophytes to local ecological variables. Local habitat niches of aquatic macrophytes are mainly driven by variations in local environmental conditions, whereas their climate niches are more or less conserved among regions. This highlights the need to study niche conservatism using local‐scale data to better understand whether species' niches are conserved, because different niches (e.g. local versus climate) operating at various scales may show different degrees of conservatism. The extent to which species' niches are truly conserved has wide practical implications, including for instance, predicting changes in species' distributions in response to global change.     

Species pools in cultural landscapes – niche construction,ecological opportunity and niche shifts

This paper discusses the ecology of species that were favoured by the development of the cultural landscape in central and NW Europe beginning in the Neolithic and the Bronze Age, with a focus on mechanisms behind species responses to this landscape transformation. A fraction of species may have maintained their realized niches from the pre‐ agricultural landscape and utilized similar niches created by the landscape transformation. However, I suggest that many species responded by altering their niche relationships, and a conceptual model is proposed for this response, based on niche construction, ecological opportunity and niche shifts. Human‐mediated niche construction, associated with clearing of forests and creation of pastures and fields promoted niche shifts towards open habitats, and species exploited the ecological opportunity provided by these created environments. This process was initially purely ecological, i.e. the new habitats must have been included in the original fundamental niche of the species. Two other features of human‐mediated niche construction, increased interconnectivity and increased spatial stability of open habitats, resulted in species accumulating in the habitats of the constructed landscape. As a consequence, selection processes were initiated favouring traits promoting fitness in the constructed landscape. This process implied a feed‐back to niche shifts, but now also including evolutionary changes in fundamental niches. I briefly discuss whether this model can be applied also to present‐day anthropogenic impact on landscapes. A general conclusion is that ecological and evolutionary changes in species niches should be more explicitly considered in modeling and predictions of species response to present‐day landscape and land‐use changes.     

How to understand species’ niches and range dynamics: a demographic research agenda for biogeography

Range dynamics causes mismatches between a species’ geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the Hutchinsonian niche). This is because source–sink population dynamics cause species to occupy unsuitable environments, and because environmental change creates non‐equilibrium situations in which species may be absent from suitable environments (due to migration limitation) or present in unsuitable environments that were previously suitable (due to time‐delayed extinction). Because correlative species distribution models do not account for these processes, they are likely to produce biased niche estimates and biased forecasts of future range dynamics. Recently developed dynamic range models (DRMs) overcome this problem: they statistically estimate both range dynamics and the underlying environmental response of demographic rates from species distribution data. This process‐based statistical approach qualitatively advances biogeographical analyses. Yet, the application of DRMs to a broad range of species and study systems requires substantial research efforts in statistical modelling, empirical data collection and ecological theory. Here we review current and potential contributions of these fields to a demographic understanding of niches and range dynamics. Our review serves to formulate a demographic research agenda that entails: (1) advances in incorporating process‐based models of demographic responses and range dynamics into a statistical framework, (2) systematic collection of data on temporal changes in distribution and abundance and on the response of demographic rates to environmental variation, and (3) improved theoretical understanding of the scaling of demographic rates and the dynamics of spatially coupled populations. This demographic research agenda is challenging but necessary for improved comprehension and quantification of niches and range dynamics. It also forms the basis for understanding how niches and range dynamics are shaped by evolutionary dynamics and biotic interactions. Ultimately, the demographic research agenda should lead to deeper integration of biogeography with empirical and theoretical ecology.     

Population trends influence species ability to track climate change

Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species’ climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche tracking imply shifts in species’ realized climate niches. We argue that quantifying climate niche shifts and analyzing them for a suite of species reveal general patterns of niche shifts and the factors affecting species’ ability to track climate change. We analyzed changes in realized climate niche between 1984 and 2012 for 46 species of North American birds in relation to population trends in an effort to determine whether species differ in the ability to track climate change and whether differences in niche tracking are related to population trends. We found that increasingly abundant species tended to show greater levels of niche expansion (climate space occupied in 2012 but not in 1980) compared to declining species. Declining species had significantly greater niche unfilling (climate space occupied in 1980 but not in 2012) compared to increasing species due to an inability to colonize new sites beyond their range peripheries after climate had changed at sites of occurrence. Increasing species, conversely, were better able to colonize new sites and therefore showed very little niche unfilling. Our results indicate that species with increasing trends are better able to geographically track climate change compared to declining species, which exhibited lags relative to changes in climate. These findings have important implications for understanding past changes in distribution, as well as modeling dynamic species distributions in the face of climate change.     

Towards a trait-based quantification of species niche

Aims Although the niche concept is of prime importance in ecology, the quantification of plant species' niches remains difficult. Here we propose that plant functional traits, as determinants of species performance, may be useful tools for quantifying species niche parameters over environmental gradients.Important findings Under this framework, the mean trait values of a species determine its niche position along gradients, and intraspecific trait variability determines its niche breadth. This trait-based approach can provide an operational assessment of niche for a potentially large number of species, making it possible to understand and predict species niche shifts under environmental changes. We further advocate a promising method that recently appeared in the literature, which partitions trait diversity into among- and within-community components as a way to quantify the species niche in units of traits instead of environmental parameters. This approach allows the switch of the focus from ecological niches to trait niches, facilitating the examination of species coexistence along undefined environmental gradients. Altogether, the trait-based approach provides a promising toolkit for quantifying the species ecological niche and for understanding the evolution of species niche and traits.