Did ‘precautionary’ 1080 baiting have a realistic potential to eradicate Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) in Tasmania without in situ monitoring data?

Anecdotal reports in 2001 suggested that the European Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) had been deliberately released in Tasmania and thereafter an eradication programme using buried fluoroacetic acid (1080) baits was believed to be a necessary precautionary action until mid‐2013. Prerequisites for the successful eradication of foxes relate to the scale of the undertaking and the ability to collect in situ data such as the distribution and abundance of the target population and measures of the efficacy of the control technique. Previously, 1080 baiting has demonstrated only limited potential as a fox eradication technique on islands when used on a scale between 685 and 2141 times smaller than Tasmania. In the absence of empirical monitoring data confirming the distribution or abundance of extant foxes, buried baiting was targeted to specific landscapes believed to be preferred by foxes. No empirical data was collected concerning the in situ effectiveness of baiting in Tasmania, yet an a priori assumption of lethal efficacy was extrapolated from four heterogeneous mainland studies to suggest that foxes would have only a 0.23 probability of surviving each bait treatment. We show that these studies were unrepresentative of Tasmanian baiting methods used and influenced by imprecise fox population surveys and misreported data. Overall, in the absence of key population monitoring and efficacy data, the ‘precautionary’ baiting strategy adopted did not have a realistic potential to eradicate fox incursions in Tasmania, nor is it an appropriate risk management strategy for other large offshore Australian islands. Contingency plans to counter fox incursions on offshore islands must address the currently inadequate technical capacity to reliably detect and monitor low‐density fox populations, which is an essential component of successful fox eradication.     

Inferring the Distribution and Demography of an Invasive Species from Sighting Data: The Red Fox Incursion into Tasmania

A recent study has inferred that the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is now widespread in Tasmania as of 2010, based on the extraction of fox DNA from predator scats. Heuristically, this inference appears at first glance to be at odds with the lack of recent confirmed discoveries of either road-killed foxes—the last of which occurred in 2006, or hunter killed foxes—the most recent in 2001. This paper demonstrates a method to codify this heuristic analysis and produce inferences consistent with assumptions and data. It does this by formalising the analysis in a transparent and repeatable manner to make inference on the past, present and future distribution of an invasive species. It utilizes Approximate Bayesian Computation to make inferences. Importantly, the method is able to inform management of invasive species within realistic time frames, and can be applied widely. We illustrate the technique using the Tasmanian fox data. Based on the pattern of carcass discoveries of foxes in Tasmania, we infer that the population of foxes in Tasmania is most likely extinct, or restricted in distribution and demographically weak as of 2013. It is possible, though unlikely, that that population is widespread and/or demographically robust. This inference is largely at odds with the inference from the predator scat survey data. Our results suggest the chances of successfully eradicating the introduced red fox population in Tasmania may be significantly higher than previously thought.     

Contemporary effective population and metapopulation size (Ne and meta‐Ne): comparison among three salmonids inhabiting a fragmented system and differing in gene flow and its asymmetries

We estimated local and metapopulation effective sizes ( and meta‐) for three coexisting salmonid species (Salmo salar, Salvelinus fontinalis, Salvelinus alpinus) inhabiting a freshwater system comprising seven interconnected lakes. First, we hypothesized that might be inversely related to within‐species population divergence as reported in an earlier study (i.e., F_ST: S. salar> S. fontinalis> S. alpinus). Using the approximate Bayesian computation method implemented in ONeSAMP, we found significant differences in () between species, consistent with a hierarchy of adult population sizes (). Using another method based on a measure of linkage disequilibrium (LDNE: ), we found more finite values for S. salar than for the other two salmonids, in line with the results above that indicate that S. salar exhibits the lowest among the three species. Considering subpopulations as open to migration (i.e., removing putative immigrants) led to only marginal and non‐significant changes in , suggesting that migration may be at equilibrium between genetically similar sources. Second, we hypothesized that meta‐ might be significantly smaller than the sum of local s (null model) if gene flow is asymmetric, varies among subpopulations, and is driven by common landscape features such as waterfalls. One ‘bottom‐up’ or numerical approach that explicitly incorporates variable and asymmetric migration rates showed this very pattern, while a number of analytical models provided meta‐ estimates that were not significantly different from the null model or from each other. Our study of three species inhabiting a shared environment highlights the importance and utility of differentiating species‐specific and landscape effects, not only on dispersal but also in the demography of wild populations as assessed through local s and meta‐s and their relevance in ecology, evolution and conservation.     

Assessing reliability of microsatellite genotypes from kit fox faecal samples using genetic and GIS analyses

Noninvasive faecal DNA sampling has the potential to provide a wealth of information necessary for monitoring and managing endangered species while eliminating the need to capture, handle or observe rare individuals. However, scoring problems, and subsequent genotyping errors, associated with this monitoring method remain a great concern as they can lead to misidentification of individuals and biased estimates. We examined a kit fox scat data set (353 scats; 80 genotypes) for genotyping errors using both genetic and GIS analyses, and evaluated the feasibility of combining both approaches to assess reliability of the faecal DNA results. We further checked the appropriateness of using faecal genotypes to study kit fox populations by describing information about foxes that we could deduce from the 'acceptable' scat genotypes, and comparing it to information gathered with traditional field techniques. Overall, genetic tests indicated that our data set had a low rate of genotyping error. Furthermore, examination of distributions of scat locations confirmed our data set was relatively error free. We found that analysing information on sex primer consistency and scat locations provided a useful assessment of scat genotype error, and greatly limited the amount of additional laboratory work that was needed to identify potentially 'false' scores. 'Acceptable' scat genotypes revealed information on sex ratio, relatedness, fox movement patterns, latrine use, and size of home range. Results from genetic and field data were consistent, supporting the conclusion that our data set had a very low rate of genotyping error and that this noninvasive method is a reliable approach for monitoring kit foxes.     

Large‐scale molecular barcoding of prey DNA reveals predictors of intrapopulation feeding diversity in a marine predator

Predator–prey interactions are critical in understanding how communities function. However, we need to describe intraspecific variation in diet to accurately depict those interactions. Harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) are an abundant marine predator that prey on species of conservation concern. We estimated intrapopulation feeding diversity (variation in feeding habits between individuals of the same species) of harbor seals in the Salish Sea. Estimates of feeding diversity were examined relative to sex, month, and location using a novel approach that combined molecular techniques, repeated cross‐sectional sampling of scat, and a specialization metric (within‐individual consistency in diet measured by the Proportional Similarity Index ()). Based on 1,083 scat samples collected from five haul‐out sites during four nonsequential years, we quantified diet using metabarcoding techniques and determined the sex of the scat depositor using a molecular assay. Results suggest that intrapopulation feeding diversity was present. Specialization was high over short periods (24–48 hr,  = 0.392, 95% CI = 0.013, R = 100,000) and variable in time and space. Females showed more specialization than males, particularly during summer and fall. Additionally, demersal and benthic prey species were correlated with more specialized diets. The latter finding suggests that this type of prey likely requires specific foraging strategies and that there are trade‐offs between pelagic and benthic foraging styles for harbor seals. This differential feeding on prey species, as well as between sexes of harbor seals, indicates that predator–prey interactions in harbor seals are complex and that each sex may have a different impact on species of conservation concern. As such, describing intrapopulation feeding diversity may unravel hitherto unknown complex predator–prey interactions in the community.     

Evaluation of Scat Deposition Transects versus Radio Telemetry for Developing a Species Distribution Model for a Rare Desert Carnivore,the Kit Fox

Development and evaluation of noninvasive methods for monitoring species distribution and abundance is a growing area of ecological research. While noninvasive methods have the advantage of reduced risk of negative factors associated with capture, comparisons to methods using more traditional invasive sampling is lacking. Historically kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis) occupied the desert and semi-arid regions of southwestern North America. Once the most abundant carnivore in the Great Basin Desert of Utah, the species is now considered rare. In recent decades, attempts have been made to model the environmental variables influencing kit fox distribution. Using noninvasive scat deposition surveys for determination of kit fox presence, we modeled resource selection functions to predict kit fox distribution using three popular techniques (Maxent, fixed-effects, and mixed-effects generalized linear models) and compared these with similar models developed from invasive sampling (telemetry locations from radio-collared foxes). Resource selection functions were developed using a combination of landscape variables including elevation, slope, aspect, vegetation height, and soil type. All models were tested against subsequent scat collections as a method of model validation. We demonstrate the importance of comparing multiple model types for development of resource selection functions used to predict a species distribution, and evaluating the importance of environmental variables on species distribution. All models we examined showed a large effect of elevation on kit fox presence, followed by slope and vegetation height. However, the invasive sampling method (i.e., radio-telemetry) appeared to be better at determining resource selection, and therefore may be more robust in predicting kit fox distribution. In contrast, the distribution maps created from the noninvasive sampling (i.e., scat transects) were significantly different than the invasive method, thus scat transects may be appropriate when used in an occupancy framework to predict species distribution. We concluded that while scat deposition transects may be useful for monitoring kit fox abundance and possibly occupancy, they do not appear to be appropriate for determining resource selection. On our study area, scat transects were biased to roadways, while data collected using radio-telemetry was dictated by movements of the kit foxes themselves. We recommend that future studies applying noninvasive scat sampling should consider a more robust random sampling design across the landscape (e.g., random transects or more complete road coverage) that would then provide a more accurate and unbiased depiction of resource selection useful to predict kit fox distribution.     

Evidence of region‐wide bat population decline from long‐term monitoring and Bayesian occupancy models with empirically informed priors

Strategic conservation efforts for cryptic species, especially bats, are hindered by limited understanding of distribution and population trends. Integrating long‐term encounter surveys with multi‐season occupancy models provides a solution whereby inferences about changing occupancy probabilities and latent changes in abundance can be supported. When harnessed to a Bayesian inferential paradigm, this modeling framework offers flexibility for conservation programs that need to update prior model‐based understanding about at‐risk species with new data. This scenario is exemplified by a bat monitoring program in the Pacific Northwestern United States in which results from 8 years of surveys from 2003 to 2010 require updating with new data from 2016 to 2018. The new data were collected after the arrival of bat white‐nose syndrome and expansion of wind power generation, stressors expected to cause population declines in at least two vulnerable species, little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus) and the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus). We used multi‐season occupancy models with empirically informed prior distributions drawn from previous occupancy results (2003–2010) to assess evidence of contemporary decline in these two species. Empirically informed priors provided the bridge across the two monitoring periods and increased precision of parameter posterior distributions, but did not alter inferences relative to use of vague priors. We found evidence of region‐wide summertime decline for the hoary bat ( = 0.86 ± 0.10) since 2010, but no evidence of decline for the little brown bat ( = 1.1 ± 0.10). White‐nose syndrome was documented in the region in 2016 and may not yet have caused regional impact to the little brown bat. However, our discovery of hoary bat decline is consistent with the hypothesis that the longer duration and greater geographic extent of the wind energy stressor (collision and barotrauma) have impacted the species. These hypotheses can be evaluated and updated over time within our framework of pre–post impact monitoring and modeling. Our approach provides the foundation for a strategic evidence‐based conservation system and contributes to a growing preponderance of evidence from multiple lines of inquiry that bat species are declining.     

Lethal 1080 baiting continues to reduce European Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) abundance after more than 25 years of continuous use in south‐west Western Australia

European Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) baiting with 1080 poison (sodium fluoroacetate) is undertaken in many Australian sites to reduce fox abundance and to protect vulnerable native species from predation. The longest continuous use of fox baiting for fauna conservation commenced in south‐west Western Australia in the 1980s and includes baiting Dryandra Woodland and Tutanning Nature Reserve. The trap success of the Woylie (Bettongia penicillata) in these two reserves initially increased more than 20‐fold after the commencement of baiting and was maintained until 2000. Woylie captures then decreased rapidly, despite ongoing fox baiting, so the long‐term efficacy of 1080 baiting was questioned. Here, fox density and probabilities of detection, re‐detection and survival between replicated baited and unbaited sites were compared by modelling capture–recapture of individual foxes. These were identified from microsatellite DNA genotypes obtained non‐invasively from hair, scat and saliva samples. The frequency and duration of fox residencies were also quantified. Remote cameras were used to determine the fate of baits but uptake by foxes was low, whereas nontarget species' bait uptake was high. Nevertheless, foxes inhabiting baited reserves had significantly higher mortality, shorter residency times, and 80% lower density than foxes inhabiting unbaited reserves. Baiting continues to significantly reduce fox abundance after more than 25 years of continuous use. This has positive implications for fox control programmes throughout Australia but reduced fox abundance may facilitate increased predation by feral Cats (Felis catus).     

Mesopredator behavioral response to olfactory signals of an apex predator

Olfactory signals constitute an important mechanism in interspecific interactions, but little is known regarding their role in communication between predator species. We analyzed the behavioral responses of a mesopredator, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), to an olfactory cue (scat) of an apex predator, the lynx (Lynx lynx) in Bia?owie?a Primeval Forest, Poland, using video camera traps. Red fox visited sites with scats more often than expected and the duration of their visits was longer at scat sites than at control sites (no scat added). Vigilant behavior, sniffing and scent marking (including over-marking) occurred more often at scat sites compared to control sites, where foxes mainly passed by. Vigilance was most pronounced during the first days of the recordings. Red fox behavior was also influenced by foxes previously visiting scat sites. They sniffed and scent marked (multiple over-marking) more frequently when the lynx scat had been over-marked previously by red fox. Fox visits to lynx scats may be seen as a trade-off between obtaining information on a potential food source (prey killed by lynx) and the potential risk of predation by an apex predator.     

Estimators for QST and coalescence times

Comparisons of to can provide insights into the evolutionary processes that lead to differentiation, or lack thereof, among the phenotypes of different groups (e.g., populations, species), and these comparisons have been performed on a variety of taxa, including humans. Here, I show that for neutrally evolving (i.e., by genetic drift, mutation, and gene flow alone) quantitative characters, the two commonly used estimators have somewhat different interpretations in terms of coalescence times, particularly when the number of groups that have been sampled is small. A similar situation occurs for estimators. Consequently, when observations come from only a small number of groups, which is not an unusual situation, it is important to match estimators appropriately when comparing to .     

Landscape genetics of the nonnative red fox of California

Invasive mammalian carnivores contribute disproportionately to declines in global biodiversity. In California, nonnative red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) have significantly impacted endangered ground‐nesting birds and native canids. These foxes derive primarily from captive‐reared animals associated with the fur‐farming industry. Over the past five decades, the cumulative area occupied by nonnative red fox increased to cover much of central and southern California. We used a landscape‐genetic approach involving mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and 13 microsatellites of 402 nonnative red foxes removed in predator control programs to investigate source populations, contemporary connectivity, and metapopulation dynamics. Both markers indicated high population structuring consistent with origins from multiple introductions and low subsequent gene flow. Landscape‐genetic modeling indicated that population connectivity was especially low among coastal sampling sites surrounded by mountainous wildlands but somewhat higher through topographically flat, urban and agricultural landscapes. The genetic composition of populations tended to be stable for multiple generations, indicating a degree of demographic resilience to predator removal programs. However, in two sites where intensive predator control reduced fox abundance, we observed increases in immigration, suggesting potential for recolonization to counter eradication attempts. These findings, along with continued genetic monitoring, can help guide localized management of foxes by identifying points of introductions and routes of spread and evaluating the relative importance of reproduction and immigration in maintaining populations. More generally, the study illustrates the utility of a landscape‐genetic approach for understanding invasion dynamics and metapopulation structure of one of the world's most destructive invasive mammals, the red fox.     

Soil moisture variations affect short‐term plant‐microbial competition for ammonium,glycine, and glutamate

We tested whether the presence of plant roots would impair the uptake of ammonium (), glycine, and glutamate by microorganisms in a deciduous forest soil exposed to constant or variable moisture in a short‐term (24‐h) experiment. The uptake of ¹⁵NH₄ and dual labeled amino acids by the grass Festuca gigantea L. and soil microorganisms was determined in planted and unplanted soils maintained at 60% WHC (water holding capacity) or subject to drying and rewetting. The experiment used a design by which competition was tested in soils that were primed by plant roots to the same extent in the planted and unplanted treatments. Festuca gigantea had no effect on microbial N uptake in the constant moist soil, but its presence doubled the microbial uptake in the dried and rewetted soil compared with the constant moist. The drying and rewetting reduced by half or more the uptake by F. gigantea, despite more than 60% increase in the soil concentration of . At the same time, the amino acid and ‐ N became equally valued in the plant uptake, suggesting that plants used amino acids to compensate for the lower acquisition. Our results demonstrate the flexibility in plant‐microbial use of different N sources in response to soil moisture fluctuations and emphasize the importance of including transient soil conditions in experiments on resource competition between plants and soil microorganisms. Competition between plants and microorganisms for N is demonstrated by a combination of removal of one of the potential competitors, the plant, and subsequent observations of the uptake of N in the organisms in soils that differ only in the physical presence and absence of the plant during a short assay. Those conditions are necessary to unequivocally test for competition.     

Oxygen and carbon isoscapes for the Baltic Sea: Testing their applicability in fish migration studies

Conventional tags applied to individuals have been used to investigate animal movement, but these methods require tagged individuals be recaptured. Maps of regional isotopic variability known as “isoscapes” offer potential for various applications in migration research without tagging wherein isotope values of tissues are compared to environmental isotope values. In this study, we present the spatial variability in oxygen () and dissolved inorganic carbon (δ¹³C_DIC) isotope values of Baltic Sea water. We also provide an example of how these isoscapes can reveal locations of individual animal via spatial probability surface maps, using the high‐resolution salmon otolith isotope data from salmon during their sea‐feeding phase in the Baltic Sea. A clear latitudinal and vertical gradient was found for both and δ¹³C_DIC values. The difference between summer and winter in the Baltic Sea values was only slight, whereas δ¹³C_DIC values exhibited substantial seasonal variability related to algal productivity. Salmon otolith δ¹⁸O_oto and δ¹³C_oto values showed clear differences between feeding areas and seasons. Our example demonstrates that dual isotope approach offers great potential for estimating probable fish habitats once issues in model parameterization have been resolved.     

Density estimation and survey validation for swift fox <Emphasis Type="Italic">Vulpes velox</Emphasis> in Oklahoma

The swift fox Vulpes velox Say, 1823, a small canid native to shortgrass prairie ecosystems of North America, has been the subject of enhanced conservation and research interest because of restricted distribution and low densities. Previous studies have described distributions of the species in the southern Great Plains, but data on density are required to evaluate indices of relative abundance and monitor population trends. We examined regressions of swift fox density (estimated by mark-recapture) on timed-track surveys, scat surveys, and catch-per-unit effort indices. Seventy-nine swift foxes (42 male, 37 female) were captured 151 times during 10 240 trapnights between May 2003 and December 2004 in the Panhandle of Oklahoma, USA. Density estimates, based on mark-recapture data from autumn 2004, were 0.08–0.44 foxes/km². Survey indices explained 51 to 76% of the variation in estimates of fox density. Our study indicates that surveys of time-to-track encounters and scat deposition rates show promise in monitoring trends in population abundance over large areas.     

Fine‐scale frequency differentiation along a herbivory gradient in the trichome dimorphism of a wild Arabidopsis

Geographic variation is commonly observed in plant resistance traits, where plant species might experience different selection pressure across a heterogeneous landscape. Arabidopsis halleri subsp. gemmifera is dimorphic for trichome production, generating two morphs, trichome‐producing (hairy) and trichomeless (glabrous) plants. Trichomes of A. halleri are known to confer resistance against the white butterfly, cabbage sawfly, and brassica leaf beetle, but not against flea beetles. We combined leaf damage, microclimate, and microsatellite loci data of 26 A. halleri populations in central Japan, to explore factors responsible for fine‐scale geographic variation in the morph frequency. We found that hairy plants were less damaged than glabrous plants within populations, but the among‐site variation was the most significant source of variation in the individual‐level damage. Fixation index () of a putative trichome locus exhibited a significant divergence along population‐level damage with an exception of an outlier population, inferring the local adaptation to herbivory. Notably, this outlier was a population wherein our previous study reported a balancing role of the brassica leaf beetle Phaedon brassicae on the morph frequency. This differentiation of the trichome locus was unrelated to neutral genetic differentiation (evaluated by of microsatellite loci) and meteorological factors (including temperature and solar radiation). The present findings, combined with those of our previous work, provide suggestive evidence that herbivore‐driven divergence and occasional outbreak of a specific herbivore have jointly contributed to the ecogeographic pattern in the frequency of two morphs.     

Nitrate or ammonium: Influences of nitrogen source on the physiology of a green alga

In freshwaters, algal species are exposed to different inorganic nitrogen (N_i) sources whose incorporation varies in biochemical energy demand. We hypothesized that due to the lesser energy requirement of ammonium ()‐use, in contrast to nitrate ()‐use, more energy remains for other metabolic processes, especially under CO₂‐ and phosphorus (P_i) limiting conditions. Therefore, we tested differences in cell characteristics of the green alga Chlamydomonas acidophila grown on or under covariation of CO₂ and P_i‐supply in order to determine limitations, in a full‐factorial design. As expected, results revealed higher carbon fixation rates for ‐grown cells compared to growth with under low CO₂ conditions. ‐grown cells accumulated more of the nine analyzed amino acids, especially under P_i‐limited conditions, compared to cells provided with . This is probably due to a slower protein synthesis in cells provided with . In contrast to our expectations, compared to ‐grown cells ‐grown cells had higher photosynthetic efficiency under P_i‐limitation. In conclusion, growth on the N_i‐source did not result in a clearly enhanced C_i‐assimilation, as it was highly dependent on P_i and CO₂ conditions (replete or limited). Results are potentially connected to the fact that C. acidophila is able to use only CO₂ as its inorganic carbon (C_i) source.     

Balancing sample accumulation and DNA degradation rates to optimize noninvasive genetic sampling of sympatric carnivores

Noninvasive genetic sampling, or noninvasive DNA sampling (NDS), can be an effective monitoring approach for elusive, wide‐ranging species at low densities. However, few studies have attempted to maximize sampling efficiency. We present a model for combining sample accumulation and DNA degradation to identify the most efficient (i.e. minimal cost per successful sample) NDS temporal design for capture–recapture analyses. We use scat accumulation and faecal DNA degradation rates for two sympatric carnivores, kit fox (Vulpes macrotis) and coyote (Canis latrans) across two seasons (summer and winter) in Utah, USA, to demonstrate implementation of this approach. We estimated scat accumulation rates by clearing and surveying transects for scats. We evaluated mitochondrial (mtDNA) and nuclear (nDNA) DNA amplification success for faecal DNA samples under natural field conditions for 20 fresh scats/species/season from <1–112 days. Mean accumulation rates were nearly three times greater for coyotes (0.076 scats/km/day) than foxes (0.029 scats/km/day) across seasons. Across species and seasons, mtDNA amplification success was ≥95% through day 21. Fox nDNA amplification success was ≥70% through day 21 across seasons. Coyote nDNA success was ≥70% through day 21 in winter, but declined to <50% by day 7 in summer. We identified a common temporal sampling frame of approximately 14 days that allowed species to be monitored simultaneously, further reducing time, survey effort and costs. Our results suggest that when conducting repeated surveys for capture–recapture analyses, overall cost‐efficiency for NDS may be improved with a temporal design that balances field and laboratory costs along with deposition and degradation rates.     

Effects of distance on detectability of Arctic waterfowl using double‐observer sampling during helicopter surveys

Aerial survey is an important, widely employed approach for estimating free‐ranging wildlife over large or inaccessible study areas. We studied how a distance covariate influenced probability of double‐observer detections for birds counted during a helicopter survey in Canada’s central Arctic. Two observers, one behind the other but visually obscured from each other, counted birds in an incompletely shared field of view to a distance of 200 m. Each observer assigned detections to one of five 40‐m distance bins, guided by semi‐transparent marks on aircraft windows. Detections were recorded with distance bin, taxonomic group, wing‐flapping behavior, and group size. We compared two general model‐based estimation approaches pertinent to sampling wildlife under such situations. One was based on double‐observer methods without distance information, that provide sampling analogous to that required for mark–recapture (MR) estimation of detection probability, , and group abundance, , along a fixed‐width strip transect. The other method incorporated double‐observer MR with a categorical distance covariate (MRD). A priori, we were concerned that estimators from MR models were compromised by heterogeneity in due to un‐modeled distance information; that is, more distant birds are less likely to be detected by both observers, with the predicted effect that would be biased high, and biased low. We found that, despite increased complexity, MRD models (ΔAICc range: 0–16) fit data far better than MR models (ΔAICc range: 204–258). However, contrary to expectation, the more naïve MR estimators of were biased low in all cases, but only by 2%–5% in most cases. We suspect that this apparently anomalous finding was the result of specific limitations to, and trade‐offs in, visibility by observers on the survey platform used. While MR models provided acceptable point estimates of group abundance, their far higher stranded errors (0%–40%) compared to MRD estimates would compromise ability to detect temporal or spatial differences in abundance. Given improved precision of MRD models relative to MR models, and the possibility of bias when using MR methods from other survey platforms, we recommend avian ecologists use MRD protocols and estimation procedures when surveying Arctic bird populations.     

Finding a Fox: An Evaluation of Survey Methods to Estimate Abundance of a Small Desert Carnivore

The status of many carnivore species is a growing concern for wildlife agencies, conservation organizations, and the general public. Historically, kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis) were classified as abundant and distributed in the desert and semi-arid regions of southwestern North America, but is now considered rare throughout its range. Survey methods have been evaluated for kit foxes, but often in populations where abundance is high and there is little consensus on which technique is best to monitor abundance. We conducted a 2-year study to evaluate four survey methods (scat deposition surveys, scent station surveys, spotlight survey, and trapping) for detecting kit foxes and measuring fox abundance. We determined the probability of detection for each method, and examined the correlation between the relative abundance as estimated by each survey method and the known minimum kit fox abundance as determined by radio-collared animals. All surveys were conducted on 15 5-km transects during the 3 biological seasons of the kit fox. Scat deposition surveys had both the highest detection probabilities (p = 0.88) and were most closely related to minimum known fox abundance (r² = 0.50, P = 0.001). The next best method for kit fox detection was the scent station survey (p = 0.73), which had the second highest correlation to fox abundance (r² = 0.46, P<0.001). For detecting kit foxes in a low density population we suggest using scat deposition transects during the breeding season. Scat deposition surveys have low costs, resilience to weather, low labor requirements, and pose no risk to the study animals. The breeding season was ideal for monitoring kit fox population size, as detections consisted of the resident population and had the highest detection probabilities. Using appropriate monitoring techniques will be critical for future conservation actions for this rare desert carnivore.     

A noninvasive method for distinguishing among canid species: amplification and enzyme restriction of DNA from dung

Endangered San Joaquin kit foxes Vulpes macrotis mutica can be sympatrically distributed with as many as four other canids: red fox, gray fox, coyote and domestic dog. Canid scats are often found during routine fieldwork, but cannot be reliably identified to species. To detect and study the endangered kit fox, we developed mitochondrial DNA markers that can be amplified from small amounts of DNA extracted from scats. We amplified a 412-bp fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome- b gene from scat samples and digested it with three restriction enzymes. The resulting restriction profiles discriminated among all five canid species and correctly identified 10 'unknown' fox scats to species in blind tests. We have applied our technique to identify canids species for an environmental management study and a conservation study. We envision that our protocol, and similar ones developed for other endangered species will be greatly used for conservation management in the future.