Large‐scale predator control increases population viability of a rare New Zealand riverine duck

The introduction of mammalian predators to oceanic islands has led to dramatic declines in the abundance of many native species. Conservation management of these species often relies on low‐cost predator control techniques that can be implemented over large scales. Assessing the effectiveness of such management techniques is difficult, but using population viability analyses (PVA), which identify the population growth rate (λ) and extinction risk of threatened species, may offer a solution. PVA provide the opportunity to compare the relative effectiveness of various management options and can identify knowledge gaps to prioritize research efforts. We used PVA to assess the population viability of whio (Hymenolaimus malacorhynchos), a rare riverine duck endemic to New Zealand. Current populations are threatened by introduced mammalian predators and are rapidly declining in both distribution and abundance. Whio conservation management is dominated by large‐scale, low‐intensity predator control, targeting introduced stoats (Mustela erminea). There is evidence that such control increases whio productivity but it is unknown if this increase is sufficient for long‐term population persistence. We undertook a stochastic PVA to assess the viability of whio populations under different management scenarios using data obtained from a 6‐year study of whio demographic responses to predator control. Populations with no predator control and low productivity will rapidly decline to extinction. Increasing productivity through predator control increased population viability but populations still showed a declining trajectory. A perturbation analysis showed that the growth rate of whio populations was largely driven by adult survival. Therefore, future research should target obtaining more robust estimates of adult survival, particularly how it is affected by predator control. Overall, our analysis indicated that large‐scale predator control increases the short‐term viability of whio populations but is insufficient for long‐term population persistence.     

Disordered Translocation is Hastening Local Extinction of the Chinese Giant Salamander

Biodiversity is declining globally by an unprecedented extinction rate. This is especially true for amphibians, accounting for 24.3% of all threatened vertebrates. As the largest extant amphibian species in the world, wild populations of the Chinese giant salamander(Genus Andrias)(CGS) have decreased dramatically because of overexploitation and habitat degradation. Translocation has become an important strategy for restoring threatened wild populations worldwide. However, disordered tra nsloca tion usually has negative effects on the native populations.We provide an overview of CGS translocation and show that disordered translocation can increase local population extinction. Nearly four times the estimated number of wild individuals have been released across China. There a re three types of translocation used for CGS, namely, reinforcement,reintroduction and ecological replacement, the last of which accounts for over one-third of translocations.Our genetic screening revealed that most released individuals were not from local populations, with one to four lineages detected in every release site(n = 6).This disordered translocation can potentially reduce the genetic integrity of original populations. Hence,we suggest suspending current CGS translocation activities immediately, until more robust measures can be developed and implemented to improve the current translocation program, especially with respect to lineage identifica tion a nd the identifica tion of appropriate release sites.     

Projected population persistence of eastern hellbenders (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis alleganiensis) using a stage-structured life-history model and population viability analysis

The population of eastern hellbenders (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis alleganiensis) in the Blue River, Indiana has undergone a dramatic decline over the last decade. Recruitment in these declining populations has been negligible, and populations are now composed almost entirely of older age classes (upwards of 20 years old). Given this dramatic decline, it is imperative to assess the impacts of these demographic patterns on population growth and long-term stability. Therefore, we developed a stage-structured, life-history model to examine the effects of varying levels of egg, juvenile, and adult survivorship on abundance, recruitment, and long-term population projections. We performed a sensitivity analysis of the model and determine which life-history parameters have the greatest potential to increase/stabilise hellbender population growth. Finally, we conducted a population viability analysis to determine the probability of extinction associated with varying management strategies. For eastern hellbender populations in Indiana, adults (especially females) are the most important component of long-term population viability. Sensitivity and elasticity analyses of the Lefkovitch matrix revealed that survival of adult and egg/larvae life-history stages are the most important for focused management efforts. Indeed, adults had the highest elasticity and reproductive value in the matrix model. Increasing survival by as little as 20% corresponded to the turning point at which the population ceased to decline and increased abundance (28% survival of egg/larvae). The importance of the transition from subadult to adult (transitional matrix element) was identified as an additional factor in maintaining abundance based on the relatively long period spent in this life-history stage (seven years for females). A population viability analysis was conducted to assess the likelihood and projected time frame of extinction for this population under no management (～25 years to complete extirpation; probability of extinction = 1) and if management efforts such as captive rearing and headstarting are undertaken (probability of extinction <0.2 at 25–30% survival of egg/larvae). Adult females had the greatest effect in reducing growth rate and population abundance when removed in exploitation simulations (91.3% versus 51.8% reduction in population growth rate), indicating translocation efforts should be designed to maintain females in the breeding pool. These models indicated that conservation management strategies aimed at ensuring the presence of adult females while concomitantly ameliorating survival at early life stages (population augmentation, translocations, introduction of artificial nest structures) are needed to stabilise the Indiana population of eastern hellbenders. This stage-structured model is the first to model eastern hellbenders and has broad implications for use across the geographic range where populations of eastern hellbenders are monitored and vital rates can be estimated.     

Comparison of reintroduction and enhancement effects on metapopulation viability

Metapopulation viability depends upon a balance of extinction and colonization of local habitats by a species. Mechanisms that can affect this balance include physical characteristics related to natural processes (e.g. succession) as well as anthropogenic actions. Plant restorations can help to produce favorable metapopulation dynamics and consequently increase viability; however, to date no studies confirm this is true. Population viability analysis (PVA) allows for the use of empirical data to generate theoretical future projections in the form of median time to extinction and probability of extinction. In turn, PVAs can inform and aid the development of conservation, recovery, and management plans. Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri) is a dune endemic that exhibited metapopulation dynamics. We projected viability of three natural and two restored populations with demographic data spanning 15–23 years to determine the degree the addition of reintroduced population affects metapopulation viability. The models were validated by comparing observed and projected abundances and adjusting parameters associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity to improve model performance. Our chosen model correctly predicted yearly population abundance for 60% of the population‐years. Using that model, 50‐year projections showed that the addition of reintroductions increases metapopulation viability. The reintroduction that simulated population performance in early‐successional habitats had the maximum benefit. In situ enhancements of existing populations proved to be equally effective. This study shows that restorations can facilitate and improve metapopulation viability of species dependent on metapopulation dynamics for survival with long‐term persistence of C. pitcheri in Indiana likely to depend on continued active management.     

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution,Population Size and Extinction Risk

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km². During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.     

Predicting patterns of long‐term adaptation and extinction with population genetics

Population genetics struggles to model extinction; standard models track the relative rather than absolute fitness of genotypes, while the exceptions describe only the short‐term transition from imminent doom to evolutionary rescue. But extinction can result from failure to adapt not only to catastrophes, but also to a backlog of environmental challenges. We model long‐term adaptation to long series of small challenges, where fitter populations reach higher population sizes. The population's long‐term fitness dynamic is well approximated by a simple stochastic Markov chain model. Long‐term persistence occurs when the rate of adaptation exceeds the rate of environmental deterioration for some genotypes. Long‐term persistence times are consistent with typical fossil species persistence times of several million years. Immediately preceding extinction, fitness declines rapidly, appearing as though a catastrophe disrupted a stably established population, even though gradual evolutionary processes are responsible. New populations go through an establishment phase where, despite being demographically viable, their extinction risk is elevated. Should the population survive long enough, extinction risk later becomes constant over time.     

Does inbreeding affect the extinction risk of small populations?: predictions from Drosophila

A fundamental assumption underlying the importance of genetic risks within conservation biology is that inbreeding increases the extinction probability of populations. Although inbreeding has been shown to have a detrimental impact on individual fitness, its contribution to extinction is still poorly understood. We have studied the consequences of different levels of prior inbreeding for the persistence of small populations using Drosophila melanogaster as a model organism. To this end, we determined the extinction rate of small vial populations differing in the level of inbreeding under both optimal and stress conditions, i.e. high temperature stress and ethanol stress. We show that inbred populations have a significantly higher short‐term probability of extinction than non‐inbred populations, even for low levels of inbreeding, and that the extinction probability increases with increasing inbreeding levels. In addition, we observed that the effects of inbreeding become greatly enhanced under stressful environmental conditions. More importantly, our results show that the impact of environmental stress becomes significantly greater for higher inbreeding levels, demonstrating explicitly that inbreeding and environmental stress are not independent but can act synergistically. These effects seem long lasting as the impact of prior inbreeding was still qualitatively the same after the inbred populations had been expanded to appreciable numbers and maintained as such for approximately 50 generations. Our observations have significant consequences for conservation biology.     

Long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods,data management,and long‐term population trends

Long‐term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long‐term viability of species, but large‐scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long‐term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long‐term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year‐to‐year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large‐scale and long‐term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long‐term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long‐term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life‐history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long‐term observational study has stimulated the development of metapopulation models and provided an opportunity to test model predictions. This combination of empirical studies and modeling has facilitated the study of key phenomena in spatial dynamics, such as extinction threshold and extinction debt.     

Familial versus mass selection in small populations

We used diffusion approximations and a Markov-chain approach to investigate the consequences of familial selection on the viability of small populations both in the short and in the long term. The outcome of familial selection was compared to the case of a random mating population under mass selection. In small populations, the higher effective size, associated with familial selection, resulted in higher fitness for slightly deleterious and/or highly recessive alleles. Conversely, because familial selection leads to a lower rate of directional selection, a lower fitness was observed for more detrimental genes that are not highly recessive, and with high population sizes. However, in the long term, genetic load was almost identical for both mass and familial selection for populations of up to 200 individuals. In terms of mean time to extinction, familial selection did not have any negative effect at least for small populations (N ≤ 50). Overall, familial selection could be proposed for use in management programs of small populations since it increases genetic variability and short-term viability without impairing the overall persistence times.     

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long‐term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population‐level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long‐term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.     

Population viability analysis of Walia ibex (Capra walie) at Simien Mountains National Park (SMNP), Ethiopia

Population viability analysis (PVA) has been applied to the management of many threatened populations. The objective of this study was, therefore, to estimate the PVA of Walia ibex at the Simen Mountains National Park, in the north‐central highlands of Ethiopia, with respect to population growth parameters, the probability of the population reaching a lower extinction threshold and the mean time to extinction. Direct census of the population was carried out in 2009. Secondary census data were also collected from park authorities and the literature reviews. The result revealed that the estimates of the infinitesimal mean, μ (0.04117) was greater than the infinitesimal variance, σ² (0.0219). The probability that the population reaches the extinction threshold was very low (0.15%). The mean time required for the counts to decline from the existing population size to one individual animal was 160 years. But threatened species are adversely affected by changes in landscape. These changes can be brought by short‐ and long‐term human and climate change impacts, respectively. Therefore, with the absence of environmental and demographic stochasticity and, with the application of appropriate reproductions and habitat management, the population of Walia ibex will be viable and reaches its mean time of extinctions after 160 years.     

Assessing losses of genetic diversity due to translocation: long-term case histories in Merriam's turkey (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Meleagris gallopavo merriami</Emphasis>)

Translocation is a widely used tool in wildlife management, but populations established as a result of translocations may be subject to a range of genetic problems, including loss of genetic diversity and founder effects. The genetic impact of single translocation events can be difficult to assess because of complex management histories in translocated or source populations. Here we use molecular markers to assess the genetic impact of three well-documented translocation events, each occurring between 42 and 53 years ago and each originating from a native, extant source population that we also included in our study. Comparing translocated populations to their sources, we found genetic evidence of a recent bottleneck in all three translocated populations, including one which is now a very large, productive population. Based on our results, we recommend caution in (1) using short term census data to assess the long term success of a translocation and (2) conducting serial translocations (i.e., using translocated populations as the source for other translocations), which could exacerbate a genetic bottleneck. We also used the data on translocated populations to investigate the relative utility of three bottleneck detection methods. With this dataset, only assessment of the modal allele frequency distribution, described by Luikart etal. [Journal of Heredity, 89, 238–247 (1998)], provided evidence of a bottleneck in the absence of source population data.     

Multi‐season occupancy models identify biotic and abiotic factors influencing a recovering Arctic Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus tundrius population

Critical information for evaluating the effectiveness of management strategies for species of concern include distinguishing seldom occupied (or low‐quality) habitat from habitat that is frequently occupied and thus contributes substantially to population trends. Using multi‐season models that account for imperfect detection and a long‐term (1981–2002) dataset on migratory Arctic Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus tundrius nesting along the Colville River, Alaska, we quantified the effects of previous year's productivity (i.e. site quality), amount of prey habitat, topography, climate, competition and year on occupancy dynamics across two spatial scales (nest‐sites, cliffs) during recovery of the population. Initial occupancy probability was positively correlated with area of surrounding prey habitat and height of nest‐sites above the Colville River. Colonization probability was positively correlated with nest height and negatively correlated with date of snowmelt. Local extinction probability was negatively correlated with productivity, area of prey habitat and nest height. Colonization and local extinction probabilities were also positively and negatively correlated, respectively, with year. Our results suggest that nest‐sites (or cliffs) along the Colville River do not need equal protection measures. Nest‐sites and cliffs with historically higher productivity were occupied most frequently and had lower probability of local extinction. These sites were on cliffs high above the river drainage, surrounded by adequate prey habitat and with southerly aspects associated with early snowmelt and warmer microclimates in spring. Protecting these sites is likely to encourage continued occupancy by Arctic Peregrine Falcons along the Colville River and other similar areas. Our findings also illustrate the importance of evaluating fitness parameters along with climate and habitat features when analysing occupancy dynamics, particularly with a long‐term dataset spanning a range of annual climate variation.     

The impact of translocations on neutral and functional genetic diversity within and among populations of the Seychelles warbler

Translocations are an increasingly common tool in conservation. The maintenance of genetic diversity through translocation is critical for both the short‐ and long‐term persistence of populations and species. However, the relative spatio‐temporal impacts of translocations on neutral and functional genetic diversity, and how this affects genetic structure among the conserved populations overall, have received little investigation. We compared the impact of translocating different numbers of founders on both microsatellite and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I diversity over a 23‐year period in the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis). We found low and stable microsatellite and MHC diversity in the source population and evidence for only a limited loss of either type of diversity in the four new populations. However, we found evidence of significant, but low to moderate, genetic differentiation between populations, with those populations established with fewer founders clustering separately. Stochastic genetic capture (as opposed to subsequent drift) was the main determinant of translocated population diversity. Furthermore, a strong correlation between microsatellite and MHC differentiation suggested that neutral processes outweighed selection in shaping MHC diversity in the new populations. These data provide important insights into how to optimize the use of translocation as a conservation tool.     

Beyond the beneficial effects of translocations as an effective tool for the genetic restoration of isolated populations

Translocations are becoming increasingly popular as appropriate management strategies for the genetic restoration of endangered species and populations. Although a few studies have shown that the introduction of novel alleles has reversed the detrimental effects of inbreeding over the short-term (i.e., genetic rescue), it is not clear how effective such translocations are for both maintaining neutral variation that may be adaptive in the future (i.e., genetic restoration) and increasing population viability over the long-term. In addition, scientists have expressed concerns regarding the potential genetic swamping of locally adapted populations, which may eliminate significant components of genetic diversity through the replacement of the target population by the source individuals used for translocations. Here we show that bird translocations into a wild population of greater prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) in southeastern Illinois were effective in both removing detrimental variation associated with inbreeding depression as well as restoring neutral genetic variation to historical levels. Furthermore, we found that although translocations resulted in immediate increases in fitness, the demographic recovery and long-term viability of the population appears to be limited by the availability of suitable habitat. Our results demonstrate that although translocations can be effective management tools for the genetic restoration of wild populations on the verge of extinction, their long-term viability may not be guaranteed unless the initial conditions that led to most species declines (e.g., habitat loss) are reversed.     

The role of age of first breeding in modeling raptor reintroductions

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Stepping into the past to conserve the future: Archived skin swabs from extant and extirpated populations inform genetic management of an endangered amphibian

Moving animals on a landscape through translocations and reintroductions is an important management tool used in the recovery of endangered species, particularly for the maintenance of population genetic diversity and structure. Management of imperiled amphibian species rely heavily on translocations and reintroductions, especially for species that have been brought to the brink of extinction by habitat loss, introduced species, and disease. One striking example of amphibian declines and associated management efforts is in California's Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks with the mountain yellow‐legged frog species complex (Rana sierrae/muscosa). Mountain yellow‐legged frogs have been extirpated from more than 93% of their historic range, and limited knowledge of their population genetics has made long‐term conservation planning difficult. To address this, we used 598 archived skin swabs from both extant and extirpated populations across 48 lake basins to generate a robust Illumina‐based nuclear amplicon data set. We found that samples grouped into three main genetic clusters, concordant with watershed boundaries. We also found evidence for historical gene flow across watershed boundaries with a north‐to‐south axis of migration. Finally, our results indicate that genetic diversity is not significantly different between populations with different disease histories. Our study offers specific management recommendations for imperiled mountain yellow‐legged frogs and, more broadly, provides a population genetic framework for leveraging minimally invasive samples for the conservation of threatened species.     

Translocation of stream-dwelling salmonids in headwaters: insights from a 15-year reintroduction experience

Translocation programs are a common strategy to increase the number of viable populations of threatened freshwater fishes. Yet, only in a minority of cases the success or failure of translocations has been assessed through a quantitative analysis of demographic traits, compensatory responses, life-histories and population dynamics of the threatened species. A paradigmatic case a translocation program combining both management- and research-oriented activities is represented by the Marble Trout Conservation Program, which started in 1993 in the upper reaches of the Soca, Idirjca and Baca river basins (Slovenia) for the conservation of stream-dwelling marble trout Salmo marmoratus. In order to enhance the viability of the species, two new populations were created in 1996 by stocking 500 marble trout aged 1+ in previously fishless streams (Gorska and Zakojska) within the core habitat of the species. The new populations have been systematically monitored for 15 years by individually tagging and sampling marble trout. Our analyses show that deterministic extinction of marble trout populations are unlikely and that high-magnitude environmental stochasticity (i.e., severe floods) is the only main cause of local population extinction, despite the high resilience to flood-induced massive mortalities exhibited by marble trout through compensatory mechanisms (e.g., relaxation of density-dependent body growth and survival at low densities). Fishless headwaters, probably characterized by a history of recurrent severe floods, should not be considered as candidate sites for the creation of new populations. Fewer individuals than originally reintroduced (i.e., 500 fish aged 1+ in each stream) might be sufficient to establish viable populations, since compensatory mechanisms are likely to regulate population size around stream carrying capacity in a few years. Besides enhancing the species viability, translocation programs can provide an excellent framework for the estimation of ecological traits (e.g., life-histories, demography, population dynamics etc.), identify potential vulnerabilities and thus guide well-formed management actions for the threatened species.     

Effects of experimental population extinction for the spatial population dynamics of the butterfly Parnassius smintheus

While many studies have examined factors potentially impacting the rate of local population extinction, few experimental studies have examined the consequences of extinction for spatial population dynamics. Here we report results from a large‐scale, long‐term experiment examining the effects of local population extinction for the dynamics of surrounding populations. From 2001–2008 we removed all adult butterflies from two large, neighboring populations within a system of 17 subpopulations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus. Surrounding populations were monitored using individual, mark–recapture methods. We found that population removal decreased immigration to surrounding populations in proportion to their connectivity to the removed populations. Correspondingly, within‐generation population abundance declined. Despite these effects, we saw little consistent impact between generations. The extinction rates of surrounding populations were unaffected and local population growth was not consistently reduced by the lack of immigration. The broader results show that immigration affects local abundance within generations, but dynamics are mediated by density‐dependence within populations and by broader density‐independent factors acting between generations. The loss of immigrants resulting from extinction has little impact on the persistence of local populations in this system.     

Effects of environmental variation on extinction and establishment

Theoretical models predict that increasing environmental variation increases the probability of extinction, decreases the probability of establishment, and influences the distribution of times to extinction or establishment. We conducted an experiment with 281 independent populations of Daphnia magna under controlled laboratory conditions to test these predictions. Consistent with the theory, the fraction of populations going extinct increased and the fraction of populations establishing self‐sustaining populations decreased under higher levels of environmental variation compared with controls. Time to extinction decreased under higher levels of environmental variation, but we found no effect on time to establishment. These results are consistent with theoretical predictions from models of extinction. They therefore support the use of stochastic population models to predict the fates of introductions of non‐indigenous species or native endangered species based on historic fluctuations and/or expected future conditions.