Predicting insect pest status under climate change scenarios: combining experimental data and population dynamics modelling

Climate change could profoundly affect the status of agricultural insect pests. Several approaches have been used to predict how the temperature and precipitation changes could modify the abundances, distributions or status of insect pests. In this article it is demonstrated how the use of simple models, such as Ricker’s classic equation, including a mechanistic representation of the influence of exogenous forces may improve our predictive capacity of the dynamic behaviour of insect populations. Using data from classical experiments in population ecology, we evaluate how temperature and humidity influence the density of two stored grain insect pest, Tribolium confusum and Callosobruchus chinensis, and then, using the A2 and B2 scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the previous modelling, we develop predictions over the future pest status of T. confusum along South America austral region, and specifically for eight cities in the continental Chilean territory. Tribolium confusum and C. chinensis show qualitatively different responses to the exogenous forcing of temperature and humidity, respectively. Our simulations predict a change in the equilibrium density of T. confusum from 10 to 14% under the moderate B2 scenario and 12 to 22% under the extreme A2 scenario to the period, 2071–2100. Both results imply a severe change in the pest status of this species in the southern region. This study illustrates how the use of theoretically based models may improve our predictive capacity. This approach provides an opportunity to examine the link between invasive species and climate change and how new suitable habitat may become available for species whose niche space is limited in some degree by climatic conditions. The use of different scenarios allows us to examine the sensitivity of the predictions, and to improve the communication with the general public and decision‐makers; a key aspect in integrated pest management.     

POPULATION GENETIC CONSEQUENCES OF DEVELOPMENTAL EVOLUTION IN SEA URCHINS (GENUS HELIOCIDARIS)

Within the sea urchin genus Heliocidaris, changes in early embryonic and larval development have resulted in dramatic differences in the length of time larvae spend in the plankton before settling. The larvae of one species, H. tuberculata, spend several weeks feeding in the plankton before settling and metamorphosing into juveniles. The other species, H. erythrogramma, has modified this extended planktonic larval stage and develops into a juvenile within 3–4 days after fertilization. We used restriction site polymorphisms in mitochondrial DNA to examine the population genetic consequences of these developmental changes. Ten restriction enzymes were used to assay the mitochondrial genome of 29 individuals from 2 localities for H. tuberculata and 62 individuals from 5 localities for H. erythrogramma. Within H. tuberculata, 11 mitochondrial genotypes were identified. A G_ST analysis showed high levels of genetic exchange between populations separated by 1,000 kilometers of open ocean. In contrast, in H. erythrogramma, 13 mitochondrial genotypes differing by up to 2.33% were geographically partitioned over spatial scales ranging from 800 to 3,400 kilometers. Between distant localities, there was complete mitochondrial lineage sorting and large sequence divergence between resulting clades. Over much smaller spatial scales (< 1,000 km), genetic differentiation was due to the differential sorting of very similar genotypes. This pattern of mitochondrial variation suggests that these population differences have arisen recently and may reflect the historical interplay between the restricted dispersal capabilities of H. erythrogramma and the climatic and geological changes associated with Pleistocene Ice Ages.     

Mosquito fauna inhabiting water bodies in the urban environment of Córdoba city,Argentina, following a St. Louis encephalitis outbreak

An understanding of urban aquatic environments as mosquito larval habitats is necessary to prioritize sites for surveillance and control of arbovirus vectors in urban areas. Natural and artificial water bodies at ground level that may be larval mosquito habitats in Córdoba city, Argentina were surveyed. Data on the characteristics of aquatic sites and the presence and abundance of mosquito larvae and pupae were collected in the summer of 2006, coinciding with the first report of human WNV and following an outbreak of St. Louis encephalitis in 2005. Eight species in the genera Aedes, Culex, and Mansonia were identified. At 64.2% (34 of 53) of the sites, only one species was collected, while 3.8% (2 of 53) had three associated species, the highest richness found per site. Culex quinquefasciatus represented over 99% (out of 32,729) of the specimens. It was also the most widely distributed and detected under diverse habitat conditions. Although puddles and semi‐permanent pools harbored a greater number of species, drainages and channels may be more relevant as risk factors from an epidemiological point of view because they showed the highest larval densities, mainly of Cx. quinquefasciatus (vector of SLE and WNV). Also, higher densities of this species were associated with stormwater runoff and sewage water, thus water management systems should be targeted and closely monitored for mosquito control purposes.     

气候变化对大兴安岭北部蒙古栎种群动态的影响

通过对气象因子和样地数据分析表明,20余年来大兴安岭北部气候趋于变暖,低海拔地带蒙古栎呈现明显的进展趋势,演替趋于以蒙古栎为优势种的阔叶林,海拔较高地带蒙古栎更新不良,演替趋于兴安落叶松和几种阔叶树的混生林,蒙古栎种群发展与干暖化具有一致性,在各类气象因子中,5月均低温是影响蒙古栎更新的决定性因子,由海拔升高引起的区域干燥度降低也是影响更新的重要因子,这也说明蒙古栎对冷湿生境的不适应性。     

Juveniles of non-resident fish found in sheltered rocky subtidal areas

Juvenile fishes of 22 species collected on a rocky shore area at Arrábida (Portugal) fell into three groups: (i) incidentals (four species); (ii) those in transit to a nearby estuary (three species); and (iii) nursery residents (15 species). For groups ii and iii this habitat seems to play an important role in their early life stages.     

Disease effects on reproduction can cause population cycles in seasonal environments

1. Recent studies of rodent populations have demonstrated that certain parasites can cause juveniles to delay maturation until the next reproductive season. Furthermore, a variety of parasites may share the same host, and evidence is beginning to accumulate showing nonindependent effects of different infections. 2. We investigated the consequences for host population dynamics of a disease-induced period of no reproduction, and a chronic reduction in fecundity following recovery from infection (such as may be induced by secondary infections) using a modified SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) model. We also included a seasonally varying birth rate as recent studies have demonstrated that seasonally varying parameters can have important effects on long-term host-parasite dynamics. We investigated the model predictions using parameters derived from five different cyclic rodent populations. 3. Delayed and reduced fecundity following recovery from infection have no effect on the ability of the disease to regulate the host population in the model as they have no effect on the basic reproductive rate. However, these factors can influence the long-term dynamics including whether or not they exhibit multiyear cycles. 4. The model predicts disease-induced multiyear cycles for a wide range of realistic parameter values. Host populations that recover relatively slowly following a disease-induced population crash are more likely to show multiyear cycles. Diseases for which the period of infection is brief, but full recovery of reproductive function is relatively slow, could generate large amplitude multiyear cycles of several years in length. Chronically reduced fecundity following recovery can also induce multiyear cycles, in support of previous theoretical studies. 5. When parameterized for cowpox virus in the cyclic field vole populations (Microtus agrestis) of Kielder Forest (northern England), the model predicts that the disease must chronically reduce host fecundity by more than 70%, following recovery from infection, for it to induce multiyear cycles. When the model predicts quasi-periodic multiyear cycles it also predicts that seroprevalence and the effective date of onset of the reproductive season are delayed density-dependent, two phenomena that have been recorded in the field.     

Use of seasonally flooded marshes by fish in a Mediterranean wetland: timing and demographic consequences

In the Camargue (southern France), movements of fish between a canal and two seasonally flooded marshes were monitored continuously by fish traps for 3 years for one marsh and for 2 years for the other. The timing of the entry and exit of the main species was determined together with species annual demographic balance, defined as the difference between the number of fish leaving and the number of fish entering. Only some of the species inhabiting the canal colonized the marshes. Except those species that reproduced in salt or brackish waters, all the species colonizing the marshes reproduced in it. The most abundant of these species were small sized (mosquitofish, sand smelt and three-spined stickleback). The unpredictability of water levels in summer was particularly unfavourable for recruitment and survival of species that breed late in the year, e.g. pumpkinseed sunfish, or which prolonged their stay in the marsh and only attempted to leave just before the connection was broken, e.g. carp. Only the three-spined stickleback always had a positive demographic balance as a result of colonizing the marshes. Adults of this species entered in winter and young-of-the-year left in April. By limiting its stay in the seasonally flooded marshes, the stickleback minimized the risks related to environmental unpredictability. These results suggest that hydrology (temporal variations of water depth) may influence the fish community structure through interspecific differences in survival and recruitment, as a result of temporal variations in the use of seasonally flooded marshes.     

Equilibrium theory and paleoecology

Although several paleontologists have recently attempted to apply MacArthur & Wilson's equilibrium theory to the fossil record, their efforts have not met with overwhelming success. The major difficulties have involved the use of questionable methodologies and the application of a fundamentally inappropriate theoretical base. In the first category it appears as if previous methods of data collection and their subsequent analyses must be critically reviewed in order to adequately test the equilibrium theory. Thus detailed species lists that include population numbers must be compiled for spatially restricted habitats. Sampling of local stratigraphic sections must be carried out on a centimeter by centimeter basis rather than at meter intervals. It appears most likely that the use of colonization curves, coupled with a determination of species saturation levels, will provide a rigorous, quantitative technique for the analysis of equilibrium states. It has become obvious over the past ten years that paleoecologists need to be more critical in their application of ecological theories to the fossil record and in substantiation of this claim, and contrary to earlier reports, it seems as if a valid test of the equilibrium theory in the fossil record has yet to be made.     

广州桔小实蝇(Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel))发生动态及气象因子

2002～2005年期间,在广东广州利用性引诱剂对桔小实蝇进行了全年种群动态监测,调查可知桔小实蝇可在广州全年发生.该虫数量从5月开始迅速上升,6～9月份是发生盛期;10月份虫口密度逐渐下降,11月到翌年3月份种群数量很低.对桔小实蝇发生数量和气象因子进行主成分分析和相关分析,结果表明温雨因子作用最大,其中月平均降雨量是影响桔小实蝇种群变动的关键因子;日照因子作用次之,但月总日照时数对该虫的发生数量没有显著影响.